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Gestão da Manutenção 1

GESTÃO DA MANUTENÇÃO

RELIABILITY GROWTH

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Failure Rate

1. Linear trend or random: IID (independent identically distributed failures)

N(T)

N (T )
λ (T ) ⇒ λ =
ˆ
T

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Failure Rate

2. Logarithmic trend

N(T)

λ (T ) ⇒ λˆ = λβ T β −1 (Crow Model)

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Reliability Growth

The first prototypes produced during the development of a new complex system
will contain:
 design, manufacturing and/or engineering deficiencies.

 the initial reliability of the prototypes may be below the system's reliability
goal or requirement.

The prototypes are often subjected to a rigorous testing program.

Problem areas are identified and appropriate corrective actions (or redesign)
are taken.

Reliability growth is the improvement in the reliability of a product over a period


of time due to changes in the product's design / manufacturing process.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Reliability Growth

Reliability growth occurs from corrective and/or preventive actions based on


experience gained from failures and from analysis of the equipment, design,
production and operation processes.

The reliability growth test, analysis and fix concept in design is applied by
uncovering weaknesses during the testing stages and performing appropriate
corrective actions before full-scale production. A corrective action takes place at
the problem and root cause level. Therefore, a failure mode is a problem and
root cause. Reliability growth addresses failure modes.

Rework, repair and temporary fixes do not constitute reliability growth.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Reliability Growth

The initial MTBF is the value actually achieved by the basic reliability tasks.

The growth potential is the MTBF, with the current management strategy, that
can be attained if the test is conducted long enough.

The effectiveness of the corrective actions is part of the overall management


strategy

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Reliability Growth

Reliability growth analysis can be conducted using different data types:

Time-to-failure (continuous) data


 the most commonly observed type
 It involves recording the times-to-failure for the unit(s) under test.
 can be applied to a single unit or system or to multiple units or systems

Success/Failure Data
 also referred to as discrete or attribute data
 It involves recording data from a test for a unit when there are only two
possible outcomes: success or failure.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP)

HPP NHPP

Expected number of failures N(T)


Expected number of failures N(T)

T T

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Duane Model

The Duane model is a two parameter ReliaSoft's RGA 6 - RGA.ReliaSoft.com

Cumulative Number of Failures vs Time


model. Therefore, to use this model as 10000.00
Duane
a basis for predicting the reliability Data 1
Developmental

growth that could be expected in an LS

equipment development program, 1000.00

procedures must be defined for

Cum. Number of Failures


estimating these parameters as a
function of equipment characteristics. 100.00

Note that, while these parameters can


be estimated for a given data set using 10.00

curve-fitting methods, there exists no


underlying theory for the Duane Kim Pries

model that could provide a basis for a 1.00


Stoneridge TED
9/12/2006 11:01
100.00 1000.00
priori estimation. Time

Alpha=-1.9467, b=18364.7224

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Duane Model

Slope of tangent λi
λc
Expected number of failures N(T)

N (t ) = t 1−α
1 ( )
b λc = N T = 1 T −α
T b

Slope of chord = λc

T Cumulative test time Cumulative test time, T

ln(λ’s)

d (E ( N (T ))) 1
λi = = (1 − α )T −α = (1 − α )λc
dT b
1 ln(1 − α ) ln(λc )
ln(λi ) = ln (1 − α ) + ln λc = ln (1 − α ) + ln  − α ln T
b
ln(λi )

ln(T)
Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)
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Duane Model

T
MTBFc =
N (T )
y = mx + c
y = ln(MTBFc )
x = ln(T )
m =α
c = ln b
ln(MTBFc ) = ln b + α ln(T )
MTBFc = bT α
1
MTBFi = MTBFc , α ≠ 1
1−α
α = 1 implies infinite MTBF growth.

1/b = the cumulative failure rate at T = 1, or at the beginning of the test, or


the earliest time at which the first λc is predicted, or the λc for the
equipment at the start of the design and development process

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Duane Model

α < 0.2 Reliability has low priority (minimum effort on the improvement of
the product’s reliability)

α = 0.2-0.3 Corrective action taken for important failure modes only

α = 0.3-0.4 Well managed programme with reliability as a high priority

α = 0.4-0.6 Programme dedicated to the removal of design weakness and to


reliability

Both the failure rate or MTBF at time T can be obtained through graphical
extrapolation.
inaccurate when there is a poor
data adjustment

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Crow Model

Larry H. Crow noted that the Duane model could be stochastically


represented as a Weibull process, allowing for statistical procedures to
be used in the application of this model in reliability growth.

The reliability growth pattern for the Crow model is exactly the same pattern
as for the Duane postulate: the cumulative number of failures is linear when
plotted on ln-ln scale.

Unlike the Duane postulate the Crow model is statistically based.

 Duane postulate: the failure rate is linear on ln-ln scale.


 Crow model: the failure intensity of the underlying NHPP is linear when
plotted on ln-ln scale.

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Crow Model

N(t): cumulative number of failures observed in cumulative test time t


ρ(t)=λi(t): failure intensity for the Crow model

Under the NHPP model, ρ (t )∆t is approximately the probably


of a failure occurring over the interval [t , t + ∆t ] for small ∆t

The expected number of failures experienced over the test interval [0, T]
T
E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt
0
The Crow model assumes that ρ (T ) may be approximated by the Weibull failure rate function

β β −1
ρ (t ) = λi (t ) = β
⋅t
η

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Crow Model

the intensity function, ρ (T ) or the instantaneous failure intensity, λi (t ) , is defined as:


1
If λ = β
η
λi (T ) = N (T ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 , with T > 0, λ > 0 and β > 0
d
dT
In the special case of exponential failure times there is no growth (β=1) and the failure
intensity, ρ (T ) , is equal to λ .
T
In this case, the expected number of failures is given by: E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt = λT
0
and Pr[N (T ) = n] = (λ T )n e −λT
; n = 0,1,2,...
n!

In the general case: E[N (T )] = ∫ ρ (t )dt


T
and Pr[N (T ) = n] =
(λT β ) e λ
n − Tβ
; n = 0,1,2,...
0
n!
= λT β bDUANE =
1
λCROW
α DUANE = 1 − β CROW
Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)
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Crow Model

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Crow Model – graphic method

N (t ) = λ ⋅ T β

ln ( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ ln N(t)

ln( N (t )) = β ln t + ln λ

declive β

ln(T)

N (t ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T β −1 → λ (T0 ) = λ ⋅ β ⋅ T0 = N (T0 ) β T0
d β −1
dt

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)


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Crow Model

Maximum Likelihood Estimators


The probability density function (pdf) of the ith event given that the (i - 1)th event occurred at Ti-1 is:

β
1
(
− β Tiβ −Tiβ−1 )
f (Ti Ti −1 ) = β ⋅ Ti β −1 η
e
η
The likelihood function is β n
β −1 1
 β
n
 n  −  ∑ tiβ
L =  β  ⋅  Π ti 
  i =1  ⋅ e η  i =1

η   
where T* is the termination time and is given by:
And differentiating with respect to yields:

Set equal to zero and solve for :


Taking the natural log on both sides:
^ N N
λ= =
T *β T0β

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Crow Model – parameter estimation

Now differentiate eqn. (*) with respect to :

Set equal to zero and solve for :

Time Terminated Data Failure Terminated Data

N N
β̂ = N
βˆ = N −1
∑ ln 0 Ti  ∑ ln n Ti 
T T
i =1 i =1

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Crow Bounds on Instantaneous MTBF

Time Terminated Data

MTBF = θˆ(T ) = T N ⋅ βˆ =1 λˆ ⋅ βˆ ⋅ T β −1
ˆ

limite inferior: MTBFL = θˆ(T ) ⋅ Π1 (Tabela 2)

limite superior: MTBFU = θˆ(T ) ⋅ Π 2

Failure Terminated Data (less usual)


MTBF = θˆ(T ) = Tn N ⋅ βˆ

limite inferior: MTBFL = θˆ(T ) ⋅ p1 (Tabela 1)

limite superior: MTBFU = θˆ(T ) ⋅ p2

Bernardo Almada-Lobo (2007)