CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE
 CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION:
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the
climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate
change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic
changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually
refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change, more
generally known as "global warming" or "anthropogenic global warming" (AGW).

OUR PLANET EARTH:

The Earth is the only planet in our solar system that supports life. The complex process of
evolution occurred on Earth only because of some unique environmental conditions that were
present: water, an oxygen-rich atmosphere, and a suitable surface temperature.

Mercury and Venus, the two planets that lie between Earth and the sun, do not support life. This is
because Mercury has no atmosphere and therefore becomes very hot during the day, while
temperatures at night may reach -140 ºC. Venus, has a thick atmosphere which traps more heat than
it allows to escape, making it too hot (between 150 and 450 ºC) to sustain life.

Only the Earth has an atmosphere of the proper depth and chemical composition. About 30% of
incoming energy from the sun is reflected back to space while the rest reaches the earth, warming the
air, oceans, and land, and maintaining an average surface temperature of about 15 ºC.
 CLIMATE CHANGE

ATMOSPHERE OF EARTH:

The chemical composition of the atmosphere is also responsible for nurturing life on our
planet. Most of it is nitrogen (78%); about 21% is oxygen, which all animals need to survive; and
only a small percentage (0.036%) is made up of carbon dioxide which plants require for
photosynthesis.

The atmosphere carries out the critical function of maintaining life-sustaining conditions on
Earth, in the following way: each day, energy from the sun (largely in the visible part of the
spectrum, but also some in the ultraviolet, and infra red portions) is absorbed by the land, seas,
mountains, etc. If all this energy were to be absorbed completely, the earth would gradually become
hotter and hotter. But actually, the earth both absorbs and, simultaneously releases it in the form of
infra red waves (which cannot be seen by our eyes but can be felt as heat, for example the heat that
you can feel with your hands over a heated car engine). All this rising heat is not lost to space, but is
partly absorbed by some gases present in very small (or trace) quantities in the atmosphere, called
GHGs (greenhouse gases).

Greenhouse gases (for example, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapour,
ozone) re-emit some of this heat to the earth's surface. If they did not perform this useful function,
most of the heat energy would escape, leaving the earth cold (about -18 ºC) and unfit to support life.

However, ever since the Industrial Revolution began about 150 years ago, man-made
activities have added significant quantities of GHGs to the atmosphere. The atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have grown by about 31%, 151% and
17%, respectively, between 1750 and 2000

CLIMATE CHANGE:
The Earth’s climate is influenced by many factors, such as the amount of greenhouse gases
and aerosols in the atmosphere, the amount of energy coming from the sun or the properties the
Earth’s surface. Changes in those factors, through human-related or natural processes, have a
warming or a cooling effect on the planet because they alter how much of this solar energy is
retained or reflected back to space.
 CLIMATE CHANGE

The concentrations in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have all increased markedly since 1750, and now exceed by
far their pre-industrial levels.

Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its concentration in the
atmosphere (379 ppm in 2005) is now far higher than the natural range over the last 650 000 years
(180 to 300 ppm) and is growing faster than ever since the beginning of its continuous direct
measurement in 1960, mainly due to fossil fuel use and to a lesser extent to land use change. For
instance, emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel use increased from 6.4 Gt per year in the 90s
to 7.2 Gt of carbon per year over the period 2000-2005. Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide
in the atmosphere have also greatly increased since pre-industrial times, and those increases are
mostly due to human activities such as agriculture and fossil fuel use.

The effect on climate of each of the different drivers is expressed in terms of “radiative
forcing”, with positive forcing causing a warming of the surface and negative forcing a cooling of it.
The overall effect of human activities since 1750 is very likely (> 90% certainty) to be one of
warming, with an estimated increase of energy, or radiative forcing, of 1.6 Watt per square meter
over the whole planet. The main warming drivers are the various greenhouse gases and it is likely
that the warming that they cause has been increasing during the industrial era at a higher rate than at
any time over the last 10 000 years. The main cooling drivers are aerosols and the changes in cloud
cover that they cause.
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PAST:
The warming of global climate is now unequivocal. There are many observations of
increasing air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising sea levels.
More specifically, eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest
years ever recorded since global surface temperatures are measured (1850). Over the last 100 years
(1906–2005), global temperature has increased by 0.74°C. Global sea level has risen by 17 cm
during the 20th century, in part because of the melting of snow and ice from many mountains and in
the polar regions. More regional changes have also been observed, including changes in Arctic
 CLIMATE CHANGE

temperatures and ice, ocean salinity, wind patterns, droughts, precipitations, frequency of heat waves
and intensity of tropical cyclones.
The temperatures of the last half century are unusual in comparison with those of at least the
previous 1300 years. The last time that the polar regions remained significantly warmer than now for
a very extended period (125 000 years ago), the sea level rose by 4 to 6 meters.
Most of the increase in global temperature observed over the past fifty years is very likely
due to human emissions of greenhouse gases.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE FUTURE:

• Temperatures are projected to increase by 1.8°C to 4.0°C.

• From 1980 to the end of the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.8°C to
4.0°C.
• The global average temperature is expected to increase by about 0.2°C per decade over the
next two decades. Continuing greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would
cause a further increase in global temperatures and many other climatic changes during the
21st century.
• The best estimates for projected global temperature increases from the 1980s to the end of
the 21st century range from 1.8°C (1.1 - 2.9°C) to 4°C (2.4 - 6.4°C) for the IPCC scenarios
that do not consider additional mitigation measures apart from those already in place in 2000.
• Global average sea level is expected to rise by 18 to 59 cm by the end of the 21st century.
Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at high northern latitudes and smallest over
the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean. Other projected changes include
acidification of the oceans, reduced snow cover and sea ice, more frequent heat waves and
heavy precipitation, more intense tropical cyclones, and slower oceanic currents.
• Warming and sea level rise caused by human activities will continue for centuries, even if
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. If warming persists over many
centuries, it could lead to a complete melting of the Greenland Ice sheet, increasing global
sea levels by about 7m.
 CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

• Effect on human health: Climate changes will affect human health in many ways. Warmer
temperature increases the mortality from heat stress. A CO2 concentration of 550 ppm
( double the pre-industrial level) could make diseases that thrive in warmer climates such as
malaria, dengue, yellow fever, encephalitis and cholera are likely to spread due to increase in
mosquitoes and other disease causing organisms and increased rate of transmissions. This
could result in 50-80 million additional malaria cases per year world wide by 2100.
Warmer and humid conditions may also enhance the growth of bacteria and their toxic
products, resulting in increased amounts of contaminated and infected food, thus initiating
food poisoning.
• Impacts on the water cycle: The most fundamental effects of climate changes are
intensification and disruption of the water cycle. Droughts, food, Water quality and quantity
are the areas of the particular concern. Intensification of the water cycle will produce more
severe droughts in some places and floods in others. Regarding the issues of water quality
and quantity, the areas of greatest vulnerability are the arid and semi-arid regions of the
world. Water scarcity in the Middle East and Africa is also likely to be aggravated by
climatic changes.
• Rise in the sea level: Global warming may raise the mean sea level significantly, primarily
due to the melting of ice caps and glaciers. Other factors like thermal expansion of water,
changes in run off due to changes in precipitation and changes in evaporation into warmer
atmosphere are also responsible for rise in sea level.
Out of the total amount of water (except that of oceans) present in the environment, nearly
79% is present in ice caps and glaciers in the Himalayas, Arctic and Antarctic regions. Thus
the increase in ambient air temperature will increase the mean sea level. Sea level has been
raised by about 15-20 cm during the last century. It has been estimated that the mean sea
level (msl) will increase by 0.2-1.5 m by 2030 and 0.5-3.0 m by 2100. Rising sea level erodes
beaches and coastal wetlands, inundates low lying areas, and increases the vulnerability of
coastal area to flooding from storm and intense rainfall.
 CLIMATE CHANGE

• Change in oceanic climate: With increased CO2 levels, the oceans would be required to
absorb and decompose more CO2, which can raise their normal level of acidity. This would
decrease the biological productivity of marine ecosystems, thereby changing the oceanic
climate.
• Impact on forest and natural areas: Climatic changes can alter geographic distribution of
vegetation types drastically. The composition of 1/3 of the earth’s forest may undergo major
changes as the result of climate changes associated with CO2 levels upto 700 ppm. These
changes will have negative impacts on natural parks resulting in the reduction of biodiversity
around the world. Wetlands may face the major risk.
• Changes to agricultural and food supply: Climate changes strongly affect crop yield. A
CO2 concentration of 550 ppm is likely to increase crop yields in some areas by as much as
30-40%, but will decrease yields in other places by similar amounts, even for the same crop.
A warmer climate would reduce flexibility in crop distribution and increase irrigation
demands. Expansion of the range of pests could also increase vulnerability and result in great
use of pesticides.

CURRENT TRENDS IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS:

Global greenhouse gas emissions have grown markedly since pre-industrial times, with a
70% increase from 1970 to 2004 alone .Over this period, emissions from the transport and energy
sectors have more than doubled. Policies put in place in some countries have been effective in
reducing emissions in those countries to a certain degree, but not sufficiently to counteract the global
growth in emissions.

Without additional measures to mitigate climate change, global green house gas emissions
will continue to grow over the coming decades and beyond. Most of this increase would come from
developing countries, where per capita emissions are still considerably lower than those in developed
countries.

TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES:

 CLIMATE CHANGE

• Mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have a certain cost. However, they
also constitute an economic benefit by reducing the impacts of climate change, and the costs
associated with them. In addition, they can bring economic benefits by reducing local air
pollution and energy resource depletion.
• If the benefits of avoided climate change are taken into account and a “carbon price” is
established for each unit of greenhouse gas emissions, this could create incentives for
producers and consumers to significantly invest in products, technologies and processes
which emit less greenhouse gases. The resulting mitigation potential is substantial and could
offset the projected growth of global emissions over the coming decades or reduce emissions
below current levels.
• Mitigation measures could contribute to stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere by 2100 or later. To achieve low stabilization levels, stringent mitigation
efforts are needed in the coming decades. This could reduce global GDP by up to a few
percent.
• Changes in lifestyle and behaviors that favor resource conservation can contribute to climate
change mitigation
• Mitigation measures can also have other benefits for society, such as health cost savings
resulting from reduced air pollution. However, mitigation in one country or group of
countries could lead to higher emissions elsewhere or effects on the global economy.
• No one sector or technology can address the entire mitigation challenge. All sectors including
buildings, industry, energy production, agriculture, transport, forestry, and waste
management could contribute to the overall mitigation efforts, for instance through greater
energy efficiency. Many technologies and processes which emit less greenhouse gases are
already commercially available or will be in the coming decades.
• In order to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emissions
would have to stop increasing and then decline. The lower the stabilization level aimed for,
the more quickly this decline would need to occur. World-wide investments in mitigation
technologies, as well as research into new energy sources, will be necessary to achieve
stabilization. Delaying emission reduction measures limits the opportunities to achieve low
stabilization levels and increases the risk of severe climate change impacts.
 CLIMATE CHANGE

ACID RAIN:

Acid rain represents one of the major consequences of air pollution. Enormous emissions of
SOx and NOx from major industrial areas pollute the atmosphere greatly. In these areas, the falling
rain reacts with these oxide pollutants to produce a mixture of sulphuric acid, nitric acid and water.
This is known as acid rain.

EFFECTS OF ACID RAIN:

• Acid rain causes extensive damage to buildings and marbles.

o The buildings and structural materials of marble, limestone, slate and mortar become
weak as calcium carbonate reacts with sulphuric acid to form soluble sulphate which
is leached out by rain.

CaCO3 + H2SO4 → CaSO4 + CO2 ↑ + H2O

• It also causes extensive damage to terrestrial ecosystem such as water, fish, vegetation,
mankind, etc.

Acidification of soil by means of acid rain leads to reduced product productivity. The
productivity of fish is also declined due to acidification of water. The heavy metals released
by acid rain may also cause potential threat to human health. Acidification of drinking water
reservoirs and concurrent increase in heavy metal concentrations and may exceed public
health limits and may cause dangerous effects. By reducing the SOx and NOx gases, acid rain
can be controlled.

OZONE DEPLETION:

Ozone represented by O3 is present at different altitude of atmosphere. But the bulk of its
concentration is present in a layer from 10 Km -50 Km up in the atmosphere and within this zone the
 CLIMATE CHANGE

highest concentration of ozone is between the altitudes of 12 Km and 35 Km in the stratosphere.

This zone (12 Km – 35 Km) of the atmosphere is called ozonosphere or the ozone layer or the
stratosphere ozone layer. This ozone layer is considered as a protective shield or Earth’s umbrella, as
it prevents the harmful ultraviolet solar radiation from leaching the earth’s surface. Thus the
presence of the ozone layer in the stratosphere is of vital significance for all biota including plants,
animals and man in the biosphere.

Further the balance between the creation and removal of ozone is being affected by
increasing the stratospheric concentration of the chlorine, nitrogen, bromine, hydroxides etc. which
act as catalyst, thus speeding up the removal process.

OZONE HOLE:

Ozone layer is being destroyed by man-made Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). These are used in
coolants in refrigerators and air conditioners. These slowly pass from troposphere and stratosphere.
They stay here for very longer period of 50-100 years. In the presence of ultraviolet radiation from
sun, CFC breaks up into chlorine-free radical (Cl*) which readily consumes ozone. The each atom of
chlorine liberated attacks ozone molecules further.
hγ
CFCl3 CFCl2 + Cl2
UV radiation

Cl* + O3 ClO* + O2

ClO* + O* Cl* + O2

Due to this continuous attack of Cl* , thinning of ozone layer takes place, which leads to the
formation of ozone hole.

Quantitative impact of greenhouse gases on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Temperature

GREEN HOUSE GASES STRATOSPHERIC OZONE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE

CFC decreases increases
CO2 increases increases
CH4 increases increases
 CLIMATE CHANGE

OZONE DEPLETION AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT:

The creation and destruction of ozone is a regular natural process,which never disturbs the
equilibrium level of ozone in the stratosphere. But when the destruction of ozone exceeds the level of ozone
creation, serious consequences are bound to crop up due to disequilibria in the level of ozone. Any change
in the equilibrium level of the ozone in the atmosphere will adversely affect life in the biosphere in the
following ways:

• Impact on climate: Depletion of ozone layer will lead to absorption of ultraviolet radiation and
hence, more UV rays will reach the earth’s surface. Consequently the temperature of the earth‘s surface will
increase. The overall warming of the environment would cause melting of continental glaciers and ice
sheets. This would, further , rise in sea level and consequently, submerge coastal lowlands. Another
consequence of ozone depletion is increase in the amount of hydrogen peroxide in the troposphere, which
would eventually induce acid rain.
• Impact on human beings: The increase in surface temperature, because of more ultraviolet solar
radiation reaching the earth’s surface leading to ozone depletion, would cause skin cancer. Increased
exposure to UV radiation would decrease immunity levels and human beings would be more prone to
infectious disease immunity levels and human beings would be more prone to infectious diseases. Further
rise in temperature in the already hot and moist equatorial regions would retard physiological growth and
cause further suppression of the mental development of human beings.
• Impact on Biotic communities: Photosynthesis, water use and yield from plants would be markedly
decreased. The heavily fertilized crops would be more adversely affected due to their exposure to UV
radiation and hence plants are damaged.

Due to rise in temperature upon increased UV radiation, the evaporation rate of surface water and soil
moisture would be greatly accelerated, resulting in a phenomenal decrease in soil moisture content. This
would cause drying of agricultural crops and hence, a marked reduction in crops production. The
photosynthesis by phytoplankton in the massive ecosystem would be markedly reduced.

PROTECTION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE OZONE LAYER:

 CLIMATE CHANGE

The depletion of the ozone layer and consequent imminent danger to biological communities in
general and human society in particular have become a matter of serious environmental concern to
government, scientific communities and the general public at the local, regional and global levels. The
remedial measures of ozone depletion adopted at international level consist of two steps:

• To reduce the ozone depleting chemicals.

• To make serious efforts to produce and propagate the use of alternative chemicals which do no
deplete ozone in the stratosphere.

CONCLUSION:

Current warming trends are unequivocal. It is very likely that greenhouse gases released by human
activities are responsible for most of the warming observed in the past fifty years. The warming is
projected to continue and to increase over the course of the 21st century and beyond.

Climate change already has a measurable impact on many natural and human systems. Effects are
projected to increase in the future and to be more severe with greater increases in temperature.
Adaptation measures are already being implemented, and will be essential in order to address the
projected consequences. There is, however, a limit to adaptation; mitigation measures will also be
needed in order to reduce the severity of impacts.

Mitigation measures that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can help avoid, reduce or delay
many impacts of climate change. Policy instruments could create incentives for producers and
consumers to significantly invest in products, technologies and processes which emit less
greenhouse gases. Without new mitigation policies, global greenhouse gas emissions will continue to
grow over the coming decades and beyond. Rapid world-wide investments and deployment of
mitigation technologies, as well as research into new energy sources will be necessary to achieve a
stabilization of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Additional research addressing gaps in knowledge would further reduce uncertainties and thus facilitate
decision-making related to climate change.
 CLIMATE CHANGE

REFERENCES:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

http://www.greenfacts.org/en/climate-change-ar4/about-climate-change-ar4.htm#content

http://envfor.nic.in/cc/what.htm

“Introduction to ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING” by Raman Sivakumar.

 CLIMATE CHANGE

INTERNET SOURCES:

Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090116111135.htm

Arctic Heats Up More Than Other Places: High Sea Level Rise Predicted
ScienceDaily (Jan. 16, 2009) — Temperature change in the Arctic is happening at a greater rate than other places in the
Northern Hemisphere, and this is expected to continue in the future.
Hubbard Glacier in Seward, Alaska.

As a result, glacier and ice-sheet melting, sea-ice retreat, coastal erosion and sea level rise can be expected to continue.
A new comprehensive scientific synthesis of past Arctic climates demonstrates for the first time the pervasive nature of
Arctic climate amplification.
The U.S. Geological Survey led this new assessment, which is a synthesis of published science literature and authored by
a team of climate scientists from academia and government. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program commissioned
the report, which has contributions from 37 scientists from the United States, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom
and Denmark.
The new report also makes several conclusions about the Arctic:

• Taken together, the size and speed of the summer sea-ice loss over the last few decades is highly unusual
compared to events from previous thousands of years, especially considering that changes in Earth's orbit over this
time have made sea-ice melting less, not more, likely.
• Sustained warming of at least a few degrees (more than approximately 4° to 13°F above average 20th century
values) is likely to be sufficient to cause the nearly complete, eventual disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet,
which would raise sea level by several meters.
• The current rate of human-influenced Arctic warming is comparable to peak natural rates documented by
reconstructions of past climates. However, some projections of future human-induced change exceed documented
natural variability.

The past tells us that when thresholds in the climate system are crossed, climate change can be very large and very fast.
We cannot rule out that human induced climate change will trigger such events in the future.
"By integrating research on the past 65 million years of climate change in the entire circum-Arctic, we have a better
understanding on how climate change affects the Arctic and how those effects may impact the whole globe," said USGS
Director Mark Myers. "This report provides the first comprehensive analysis of the real data we have on past climate
conditions in the Arctic, with measurements from ice cores, sediments and other Earth materials that record temperature
and other conditions."
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Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100815111610.htm
Climate Change Affects Geographical Range of Plants, Study Finds
ScienceDaily (Aug. 16, 2010) — Researches at the University of Gothenburg have shown how climate change many
million years ago has influenced the geographical range of plants by modelling climate preferences for extinct species.
The method can also be used to predict what effects climate change of today and tomorrow will have on future
distributions of plants and animals.

The white form of Ivesia bailey.

The researcher Mats Töpel at the Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg,
has studied how climate change has influenced the development of a group of plants in the genus Potentilla, commonly
known as cinquefoils.
His research shows that this group of plants developed during a period of climate change in western North America
around 25 million years ago, which led to summer drought in California and the largest desert in North America, the
Great Basin.
The small plant Ivesia bailey is adapted to living in extremely dry conditions, by seeking shade on north-facing rocks in
the Nevada Desert. This lifestyle is believed to have evolved in the genus Potentilla around 20 million years ago.
Models of the climate
"By creating models of the climate in which the group probably evolved, I have shown that there was a suitable climate
in the eastern part of the Great Basin approximately 25 million years ago, and that the geographical range of these plants
expanded to the west at the same time as new species evolved and adapted to different types of environments. The
method of building climate models for organisms that no longer exist is quite new, and only a few studies of this type
have previously been published.
Models can be used to predict the future
"I have used the method to study how climate change many millions of years ago has shaped the vegetation we see
today, but it can also be used to predict how present and future climate change may affect organisms and hence, our
 CLIMATE CHANGE

living conditions. If these changes lead to a situation in which the crops we depend on find it difficult to cope, large
resources will be required to maintain or reorganise our agricultural production.

Link: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/10/081013143031.htm

How Does Climate Change Affect The Water Cycle?

ScienceDaily (Oct. 27, 2008) — Climate change is having an impact on the water cycle,
raising the issue of whether we should be investing in adapting to these impacts or
focusing on more pressing water resource issues, such as providing water and sanitation
for increasing populations? If investment in adapting to climate change is a priority, then
is it best to invest in protecting natural ecosystems or developing engineered
infrastructure?
A flooded reservoir in Mexico.

“The traditional way of handling extreme events such as floods and droughts, with engineering works should be
complemented with the ecosystems approach which integrates the management of land and water that promotes
conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way”, says Dr. Max Campos, Review Editor for the Latin American
Chapter for IPCC Impacts and Adaptation Report .
“Climate change is indeed an important issue, but it needs to be seen in context of the many other global challenges
affecting water resources such as population growth, urbanization and land use change. Adaptation is vital – but we need
to adapt to the full range of factors that are stressing water resources, and not focus on human-forced climate change to
the exclusion of everything else”, says Oliver Brown from the International Institute for Sustainable Development
(IISD).
“It should be a must for vulnerable communities whether in the developed or developing world to ensure that their
development ambitions are prepared for climate change. Adaptation should not be limited to the rich”, said Dr. Henk
Van Schaik, Deputy Programme Coordinator UNESCO-IHE. He argued that vulnerable communities in the developed
world are preparing and investing to protect their societies, economies and environments to the impacts of climate
change. This is not so in transition economies nor in developing countries.
Going beyond the issue of investment in pressing development issues or adaptation measures, is the question of looking
at natural versus engineered solutions.
“Conventional approaches to climate change adaptation range from water conservation and efficient use to new
operational techonologies”, says Dr Mark Smith, Head of the IUCN Water Programme. “Dams and reservoirs are still
 CLIMATE CHANGE

considered as the most effective structural means of risk management. But we need to start thinking of the environment
as infrastructure for adaptation as well. Health and intact river basins, wetlands and floodplains make us less vulnerable
to climate change. Lowering risk is a good reason for investing in watersheds and the environment.”