The world’s largest renewable energy consultancy

August 2010
Experts in renewable energy

Onshore & Offshore Wind Wave & Tidal Solar PV & CSP
 Geographical reach
750 staff, in 41 locations, across 22 countries

Heerenveen
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Koog
Glasgow
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Dublin Poland
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Madrid
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Peterborough Newcastle
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Porto Alegre
GL Garrad Hassan supports stakeholders at all stages of a project

Common activities in Australia

• Wind farm design, wind monitoring, greenfield services;
• Wind speed and energy assessments;
• Wind energy forecasting;
• Planning technical assessments:
• ZVI, shadow flicker, noise assessments, EMI,
photomontages, aviation;
• Due diligence for developers, owners & investors;
• Independent Engineering services for owners & banks;

Other Activities
• O& M, Engineering, Design, Testing, Marine & Tidal
power, Solar, SCADA, Market, Strategy ...
Why care about wind speed?

Power = ½ ρ A U3

ρ – air density
A – swept area
U – wind speed

10% error in wind speed gives 33% error in power

Wind speed has the greatest impact on the viability of
a wind project
 Wind Speed Monitoring

Making Wind Data Bankable

Wind speed monitoring - Overview

• Meteorological masts

• Monitoring equipment

• Anemometers

- Calibration

• Data handling

Wind speed monitoring

 Siting guidelines
If the wind farm is going to look like this…..

there is no point in putting the mast here…..

(even though it may be the windiest location)

or here…..

(where obstacles or local surface roughness variation give unrepresentative conditions)

The mast should be sited at a representative location
Siting guidelines

• Site the mast at a representative location

• Aim – to relate the wind speeds at the turbine locations to those at
the mast

• Rely on a wind flow model – eg WAsP

• Accuracy of modelling depends on:

• complexity of the terrain
• roughness variations
• obstacles
• separation

• Several masts may be needed for large and/or complex sites

How many masts do I need?

Terrain Maximum recommended distance

between any proposed turbine location
and nearest mast
SIMPLE
Quite flat with some surface roughness 2-5 km
changes
MODERATELY COMPLEX
Rolling hills or gross surface roughness 1-2 km
effects such as forestry
VERY COMPLEX
<1 km
Mountain ridges
Moving meteorological masts

• Must keep at least one

mast in same location

• Can move other masts

after 6 months to save
money
Mast height and type

• Mast height > 3/4 hub height (generally)

• Mast height = hub height (if wind profile is non-standard)
• eg flow separation, thermal effects, obstacles

• Mast type economic choice but IEC guidelines should be

followed
• tubular with guy wires
• lattice, generally with guy wires, but sometimes without
• Factors may be access to site; icing possibility
Tubular masts

Advantages
• Cheaper than lattice mast
• Simpler to erect, no foundations
• Access more difficult terrain
• Smaller footprint

Disadvantages
• Need to drop mast to fix any
issues up mast – then re-erect
• Typically shorter than lattice
masts – currently 70m MAX
 Lattice masts

Advantages
• Can climb mast to fix any issues
• Can erect masts > 70m
• Better long term solution

Disadvantages
• More expensive than tubular masts
• More difficult to erect, foundations
required
• Larger footprint
Impacts of Mast installation
on property

• Foundations – generally at
mast base and sometimes
at guys anchor points
• Livestock fences may be
required (electric OK)
• Guy wires in 3 directions –
need protection
• Low flying aircraft – crop
dustings, weed control
• Lighting may be required

• Inner guys – 25-35m

• Outer guys – 40-50m
 Numbers of instruments

Need several sets of wind instruments

per mast
- To measure wind shear
- In case of failure
- Use highest instruments for main
analysis

Cost of additional instruments is much

lower than cost to replace

Value of the extra information is high

 Mounting of instruments

• Set up should follow IEC

recommendations
• Instruments should avoid
influence from mountings and
from one another
• Consider dominant wind
directions Good

• 2 examples of poor setup:

- boom effect:
distortion of wind flow,
depending on direction
- stub mount effect:
can lead to over prediction of
wind speeds

Poor
Instrument guidelines - Anemometers
Almost always a cup anemometer
- rugged and reliable
- accurate
- low power

Alternatives:
Sonic

- high power, high cost

- ice free
- very detailed
Remote Sensing

Advantages
• No mast needed
• no planning permission needed
• measurements at more and higher
heights

Disadvantages
• expensive
• use more power
• installation and calibration issues
• still need calibration against on-site
conventional mast SODAR LIDAR
Equipment guidelines

Other equipment
• wind vane
• temperature sensor
• electric supply?
• solar panel?
• Battery
• data logger
• 3G Modem
• Lightning conductor
•
Data handling

May have to convince a third party of

accuracy
- calibration of equipment
- traceability of records

Processing to detect and remove data

affected by malfunction, icing etc

Do not read too much into monthly

statistics!
Analysis and Interpretation
of Wind Speed Data
Formats of wind statistics

• Frequency table .TAB file

• Wind rose

• Histogram

5% 10% 15% Measured

Weibull fit

probability

0-3 3-6 6-9 >9 m/s wind speed

Data required

• Ideally:
10+ years of data recorded on site

In reality:
Measure-Correlate-Predict method with reference station off site, to reproduce long
term site wind regime

Site data required for MCP

• 1+ year of data close to hub height
• Interim analysis possible 9
with less data
8
Mean wind speed [m/s]

• Long-term mean 7.0 m/s

7

• Maximum mean 8.0 m/s

6
• Minimum mean 6.5 m/s
5
1990 1995 2000 2005
Example wind speed correlations
• Fairly close reference station
30 30
28 PCA fit 28 PCA fit
26 Data 26 Data

24 24

Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
120 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s) 150 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s)

30 30
28 PCA fit 28 PCA fit
26 Data 26 Data

24 24

Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
180 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s) 210 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s)

Analysis and interpretation of wind speed data

Example wind speed correlations
• More distant reference station
30 30
28 PCA fit 28 PCA fit
26 Data 26 Data

24 24

Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
240 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s) 270 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s)

30 30
28 PCA fit 28 PCA fit
26 Data 26 Data

24 24
Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)
Mast Site at XX m wind speed (m/s)

22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
300 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s) 330 degrees Mast Ref at XX m wind speed (m/s)

Analysis and interpretation of wind speed data

Example results: long term wind statistics at mast
Wind rose

5% 10% 15%

0-3 3-6 6-9 >9 m/s

Analysis and interpretation of wind speed data

 Probability distribution of mean wind speeds

Weibull frequency distribution is found to conform well to many

observed distributions
Described by: A (scale parameter) and k (shape parameter)
Wind flow prediction at turbines

• We have derived long term wind speed statistics at the site mast location

• Now need to extrapolate from mast

• to hub height
• to turbine locations

• How?
• Measurement?
• Modelling

• In practice, computer modelling of wind flow behaviour is used to predict wind regime
at each turbine location

Analysis and interpretation of wind speed data

Mean wind speed profile in surface
layer
• Log Law

• Modified Log Law for heights up to 

200m

• Power Law

Assumptions
– neutral atmospheric stability
– fully developed profile
Wind flow over hills

Maximum speedup
over the crest
Wind flow over hills

Maximum speedup
over the crest

Separation bubble

..
Linear models are reliable only for slopes less than ~0.3 (~17°)
Predicting wind flow behaviour at real sites

• Micro scale wind modelling - wind farm site

• WAsP is common industry tool
Predicting wind flow behaviour at real sites

• Meso scale wind modelling – site finding/prospecting

• Eg. Anemoscope
Predicting Long Term Mean Wind Speed & Energy

• The final piece of the puzzle to make a potential wind farm project bankable
• The Long Term Mean Wind Speed & Energy Prediction

Net energy 50 GWh/annum

Mean wind speed 7.3 m/s
Long-term historic data 14 years
Energy sensitivity 12 GWh/annum/(m/s) derived from energy
calculations at different mean wind speeds

Anemometer uncertainty 2.0% 0.15 m/s 1.8 GWh/yr

Correlation standard error 2.2% 0.16 m/s 1.9 GWh/yr
Variability of long-term 1.6% 0.12 m/s 1.4 GWh/yr
Topographic and wake modelling 4.0% 2.0 GWh/yr

Combined standard error (historic) 3.6 GWh/yr

Future wind variability (1 yr) 6.0% 0.44 m/s 5.3 GWh/yr

Future wind variability (10 yrs) 1.9% 0.14 m/s 1.7 GWh/yr

Combined standard error (historic + 1 yr future) 6.4 GWh/yr

Combined standard error (historic + 10 yr future) 4.0 GWh/yr
Predicting Long Term Mean Wind Speed & Energy

Mean of distribution = 50 GWh/annum

Standard deviation of distribution, s = 6.4 GWh/annum

P90 = 41.8 GWh/yr

50
Good practice gives accurate predictions
Thank you
Dr Matthew Bechly
matthew.bechly@gl-garradhassan.com

Suite 5A, Level 2, OTP House

10 Bradford Close
Kotara, Newcastle, NSW 2289

www.gl-garradhassan.com