Introduction to the Topic

Population:
In sociology and biology a population is the collection of people or organisms of a
particular species living in a given geographic area or space, usually measured by a
census.
Some sociologists believe that, as of now, the population is growing at such a rate that in
the near future, the planet will no longer be able to support the huge numbers. There are
many different solutions to population growth. The United Nations has chosen to allow
different countries to set a maximum size for families living in that country, (ex: China).
Work in improving socio-economic rights and opportunities for women have also proven
to reduce population growth to a more sustainable level.
The age and gender distribution of a population within a given nation or region is
commonly represented by means of a population pyramid. This is a triangular distribution
with the portions of the population along the horizontal X-axis and the 5-year age groups
(cohorts) along the vertical Z-axis. Male population is shown to the left of the vertical
axis and female to the right.
Showing the age structure of the population in this way allows some broad inferences
about age-related mortality rates to be made. Nations with low infant mortality and high
longevity will display a more rectangular shape as most of the population lives to old age.
Other countries have a more pyramidal shape with a wide base, reflecting higher infant
mortality and greater risk of early death.

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Population Growth:
Population growth is the change in population over time, and can be quantified as the
change in the number of individuals in a population per unit time. The term population
growth can technically refer to any species, but almost always refers to humans, and it is
often used informally for the more specific demographic term population growth rate,
and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the population of the world.
The world population has grown tremendously over the past two thousand years. In 1999,
the planet's population passed the six billion mark. The current mid-year 2007 world
population is estimated at 6,602,224,175.
Population Growth Rate:
Population growth rate (PGR) is the increase in a country’s population during a period of
time, usually one year, expressed as a percentage of the population at the start of that
period. It reflects the number of births and deaths during the period and the number of
people migrating to and from a country.

2
 The Population Issue: Marx
Vs.Malthus
Revised version of a paper presented at the Pacific Sociological Association Meeting in
Honolulu, April 1971 published in DEN NY VERDEN (Journal of the Institute for
Development Research), Copenhagen, Denmark, December 1973.
It has currently become fashionable to argue that excessive population growth stands in
the way of economic growth and that underdeveloped countries should take measures to
reduce their rates of natural increase. Population growth appears today as the major
factor determining underdevelopment and population control is advocated as the most
urgent and necessary step if development is to be eventually achieved.
Within the context of the developed countries it is argued that their pressing problems
such as urban blight, crime, pollution, environmental deterioration, etc. would have
greater possibilities of being satisfactorily solved if population growth were to be
curtailed.
From a Marxist viewpoint, such "self-evident truths" are but reifications of concrete
historical, social, political, and economic relations, which should be taken into account if
the population issue is to be at all understood. Just as in the 18th century the English
ruling classes fought the impact of the French Revolution with military and ideological
weapons among which Malthus' "Essay on Population" was perhaps the most important,
today the ruling classes are bringing back the Malthusian argument in an effort to
increase their control over the growing number of the dispossessed. Like Malthus,
contemporary socio-economic theorists view excessive population rather than social
institutions and social relations as the main source and barrier to the solution of social
problems. It is, therefore, necessary to show light on the Marxist critique and a Marxist
alternative to the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian approaches to the study of population.
The Malthusian Argument
Malthus' argument rests upon two propositions; unchecked population increases in a
geometrical ration while subsistence increases in an arithmetical ratio. The two
propositions together constitute the famous principle of population which, according to
Malthus, is "one of the causes that have hitherto impeded the progress of mankind

3
towards happiness" (Malthus, 1933:5). This cause is "intimately united with the very
nature of man , it is the constant tendency in all animated life to increase beyond the
nourishment prepared for it" (Malthus, 1933:5); "its natural and necessary effects are
very considerable portion of that vice and misery, and of that unequal distribution of the
bounties of nature which it has been the unceasing object of the enlightened
philanthropists in all ages to correct" (Malthus, 1933:5).
Malthus bases his principle of population on a natural law; the tendency of all animated
life to increase beyond the means available for its subsistence. The natural law of
population growth is checked by another natural law; the law of necessity which restrains
that growth within certain boundaries and keeps it down to the level of the means of
subsistence. Within the human species the natural law of necessity operates through
various checks, which fall under two main categories:
a) Preventive checks which control fertility (i.e., moral restraint or marriage
postponement, and vice).
b) Positive checks which increase mortality or the probability of dying (i.e.,
"unwholesome occupations, epidemics, war, plague and famine) (Malthus, 1933:14).
The constant operation of the principle of population brings about the operation of the
law of necessity. The outcome is "much of that poverty and misery observable among
the lower classes of people in every nation, and those reiterated failures in the efforts of
the higher classes to relieve them" (Malthus, 1933:1).
Malthus also brings support to his theory in the law of diminishing returns the implication
of which is that food production is bound to lag behind population growth. This law
provides him with the most general theoretical basis for his principle of population and
constitutes the basic argument with which Neo-Malthusian thought addresses itself to
population problems today. Thus, according to contemporary thought about this matter,
not only food production but also every natural resource is bound to lag behind
population growth.
The Marxist Argument
Marx and Engels reacted very strongly against Malthus' population theory which they
saw as an apology for the status quo and all throughout their work they referred to
Malthus in a very ironic and disdainful manner. Leaving aside the superficial aspect of

4
their criticism, in looking at their scientific critical statements it is possible to distinguish
two levels of analysis.
1. At the most general theoretical level Marx and Engels see in Malthus' principle
of population another instance of the way in which bourgeois economists reify
social relations.
Malthus begins "post festum indeed, with the results of the process of capitalist
development before him; i.e., widespread poverty, hunger, unemployment, etc. and,
disregarding the concrete social relations of exploitation and competition which had
produced that hungry and unemployed population, he views it as the outcome of the
operation of inexorable natural laws. He reifies the specific relations of exploitation
which obtained at that time between wage workers and capitalists, and the
Antagonistic relations between the landed and the industrial interests, changing them into
the operation of the natural law of necessity that manifests itself through positive checks
to population growth. Poverty, unwholesome working conditions, hunger, disease,
unemployment, etc. are depicted as the product of the natural law of necessity which in
that way checks the functioning of another natural law; the tendency of all animated life
to reproduce itself beyond the means of subsistence.
2. At a more specific level, Marx's answer to Malthus' principle of population is the
principle of the reserve army of labor or relative surplus population, which he
elaborates in the course of his analysis of the general law of capital accumulation
The accumulation and expansion of capital constitutes the driving force of capitalism and
it becomes possible only as long as capitalists can operate with a profit. Profits originate
in the appropriation, by the capitalist, of the surplus value produced by the labor power
he buys. Accumulation takes place when capitalists convert a portion of there surplus
value into capital; this allows them to expand, to appropriate more surplus value which
will lead to further accumulation and expansion and so on.
The process of accumulation implies also a process of increase in the demand for labor.
As an increase in the demand of any commodity produces an increase in the price of that
commodity, in this specific case, accumulation leads to an increase in the value of labor
power above its natural value (that is, the wages which assure the worker a minimum
level of subsistence). The consequences of such increase would be to narrow the gap

5
between the amounts invested in labor power and the value of the output produced by
labor power. In other words, there would be a reduction or even a disappearance of the
surplus value.
In actual practice, wages tend to rise together with capital accumulation but they never
rise enough to endanger the system itself. For the classical economists and for Malthus in
particular, the mechanism that kept wages equal to the "natural" price of labor power is
embodies in the principle of population. When wages are high, workers over-reproduce
themselves. The consequent population increase produces a supply of labor larger than
the demand and wages fall to their natural price. As this natural price only gives to the
workers a minimum level of subsistence, the only way in which workers can improve
their condition is by controlling their numbers thereby raising the price of labor. Poverty
and unemployment are, therefore, only the result of the workers' natural propensity to
reproduce beyond the available means of subsistence.
Marx rejects the Malthusian solution to the problems created by the contradictions
inherent in the capitalist system. In the process of capital accumulation the composition
of capital does not remain constant; it changes and it is this change which is most
important to understand the effect of capital accumulation and expansion upon the
working population.
From the perspective of its value composition, capital is composed of constant capital
(value of the means of production) and variable capital (value of the labor power). From
the perspective of its technical composition, capital is composed of the means of
production and living labor. Changes in the technical composition produce changes in
the value composition and this correlation between the two is what Marx calls the organic
composition of capital (Marx, 1970:612). In the process of capital accumulation the
organic composition of the total social capital changes.
This is the general law of capital accumulation; the appropriation and accumulation of
surplus value in the hands of the capitalist class leads to the poverty of those who are
precisely the source of that surplus value. In other words, capital accumulation
unavoidably leads to the unemployment of a sector of the available labor force.
Unemployment, as inherent feature of the capitalist mode of production, means the
constant presence of a "relative surplus population" or "reserve army of labor" whose size

6
and composition will vary with the concrete needs of capital accumulation within the
context of any given social formation where the capitalist mode of production may
prevail.
The error of Malthus and the classical economists was to focus their analysis of capital
accumulation and its effects upon specific sectors of production instead of looking at the
relationship between total social capital and the total labor force. This perspective leads
them to confuse the laws that regulate that general ratio with the laws which regulate the
allocation of specific sectors of the labor force to specific sectors of production (Marx,
1970:638-639).
Marx's analysis shows that population is the dependent variable. Whenever the reserve
army of labor is relatively depleted and the level of wages tends to rise reducing the rate
of surplus value, the capitalist class will adopt measures (i.e., technological
improvements, foreign investments, etc.) which, while increasing the productivity of
labor and the rate of profit, will render obsolete a number of jobs.

7
 Distribution of World Population
The world population is the total number of humans on Earth at a given time. In July,
2007, the world's population had reached over 6.6 billion. In line with population
projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that were unprecedented before the 20th
century, although the rate of increase has almost halved since its peak, which was reached
in 1963, of 2.2 percent per year.
In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at the rate
of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year. According to data from the CIA's 2005–
2006 World Factbooks, the world human population currently increases by 203,800 every
day. 2007 CIA Factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day.
Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19%
in 1963, but growth remains high in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.
In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population
over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates)
and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next
decade, Japan and Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population
growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.
This is a list of countries ordered according to population. The list includes sovereign
states and self-governing dependent territories.

% of
Rank Populatio Date world
Country/territory/en
n populatio
tity
n
World 6,671,226,000 July 1, 2007 100%
1 People's Republic of China 1,319,704,000 August 1, 2007 19.78%
2 India 1,169,016,000 17.52%
3 United States 302,495,015 Aug 1, 2007 4.53%
4 Indonesia 231,627,000 3.47%
5 Brazil 186,736,000 2.8%

8
 6 Pakistan 160,944,000 2.41%
7 Bangladesh 158,665,000 2.38%
8 Nigeria 148,093,000 2.22%
9 Russia 142,499,000 2.14%
10 Japan 127,750,000 June 1, 2007 1.91%
11 Mexico 103,263,388 Oct 17, 2005 1.55%
12 Philippines 88,706,300 July 1, 2007 1.33%
13 Vietnam 87,375,000 1.31%
14 Germany 82,314,900 Dec 31, 2006 1.23%
15 Ethiopia 77,127,000 July 2007 1.16%
16 Egypt 75,498,000 1.13%
17 Turkey 74,877,000 1.12%
18 Iran 71,208,000 1.07%
France (including overseas
19 64,102,140 January 1, 2007 0.96%
France)
20 Thailand 62,828,706 Dec 31, 2006 0.94%

Republic of China
The People's Republic of China is the largest country in East Asia. With over 1.32 billion
people, it has the largest population of any country in the world and is the world's third or
fourth largest country in terms of total area. Due to its vast population, its rapidly
growing economy, its large research and development investments and its status as a
declared nuclear weapons state, the PRC is often considered by commentators as an
emerging superpower. Market-based economic reforms since 1978 have helped lift 400
million people out of poverty, bringing the poverty rate down from 53% of population in
1981 to 8% by 2001.
India
Officially the Republic of India is a sovereign country in South Asia. It is the seventh-
largest country by geographical area, the second most populous country, and the most
populous liberal democracy in the world. With the world's 12th largest economy at
market exchange rates and the 3rd largest in purchasing power India has made rapid

9
economic progress in the last decade. Although the country's standard of living is
projected to rise sharply in the next half-century, it currently battles high levels of
poverty, illiteracy, persistent malnutrition, and environmental degradation. A pluralistic,
multi-lingual, and multi-ethnic society, India is also home to a diversity of wildlife in a
variety of protected habitats.
United States of America
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states,
one federal district, and fourteen territories. At 3.7 million square miles (9.6 million km²)
and with 300 million people, the United States is the third or fourth largest country by
total area and third largest by land area and population. The United States is one of the
world's most ethnically diverse nations, the product of large-scale immigration from
many countries. Its national economy is the world's largest, with a nominal 2006 gross
domestic product (GDP) of more than $13 trillion.
Indonesia
Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia is a nation in Southeast Asia. With a
population of over 234 million, it is the world's fourth most populous country and the
most populous Muslim-majority nation, although officially it is not an Islamic state.
Despite its large population and densely populated regions, Indonesia has vast areas of
wilderness that support the world's second highest level of biodiversity. The country is
richly endowed with natural resources, yet poverty is a defining feature of contemporary
Indonesia.
Brazil
Brazil officially the Federative Republic of Brazil is the largest and most populous
country in Latin America, and the fifth largest in the world in both area and population.
Its territory covers 8,514,877 km² between central South America and the Atlantic
Ocean, and it is the eastern-most country of the Americas. While Brazil has one of the
largest populations in the world, population density is low and the inner continental land
has large areas of low population. It is a multiracial country composed of European,
Amerindian, African and Asian elements.

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Pakistan
Pakistan officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a republic in South Asia, marking
the region where South Asia converges with Central Asia and the Middle East. Pakistan
is the sixth most populous country in the world and is the second most populous country
with a Muslim majority. Pakistan has an estimated population of 169,270,617, as of 2007.
Pakistan has the world's sixth largest population, placing it higher than Russia, and lower
than Brazil. Because of Pakistan's high growth rate, it is expected to surpass Brazil in
population in the year 2020. Population projections for Pakistan are relatively difficult
because of the apparent differences in the accuracy of each census and the inconsistencies
between various surveys related to the fertility rate, but it is likely that the rate of growth
peaked in the 1980s and has since declined significantly. The population was estimated at
162,400,000 on July 1, 2005, with a fertility rate of 34 per thousand, a death rate of 10
per thousand, and the rate of natural increase at 2.4%. Pakistan also has a high infant
mortality rate of 70 per thousand births.
Bangladesh
The People's Republic of Bangladesh is a country in South Asia. It is surrounded by India
on all sides except for a small border with Myanmar to the far southeast and the Bay of
Bengal, part of the Indian Ocean, to the south. Together with the Indian state of West
Bengal, it makes up the ethno-linguistic region of Bengal. Bangladesh is among the most
highly (ranked 7th) and densely (2nd among major countries) populated countries in the
world. The population is generally poor, rural and Muslim.

11
 Problem Tree Analysis
Causes and Effects

1. Religious and Ideological Conservativeness

Allah is the Provider
Basically it is the traditional conviction that children are gift of God and to deny this gift
is really dreadful. Similarly, some so called maulanas and maulvis consider family
planning as a sin. Some other ideologically conserved people mostly in rural areas think
that family planning is vulgarity. Women feel reluctant to go to doctor for family
planning. Men also make it as a matter of their ego to go along with their wives for
certain purposes. They are scared to use advanced medical technologies like
contraception. So ultimately religion is used as lame excuse to serve own interests.

Effects
• Shyness and fear to approach doctor and to benefit from medical technology even if
they have any access.

2. Traditional Barriers
• Early Marriages
Marrying at very young age and young pregnancies are very common in backward rural
areas.
• Desire for a male child
In rural as well as urban areas couples strive for a male child, which is considered to be
the symbol of “pride”. No matter in this attempt they give birth to how many daughters.
Their underlying belief is families having more male members carry more weight in rural
affairs.
• Gender Inequality
Continued motherhood is the option given to mothers, as they are not allowed to go out to pursue for
economic opportunities. Also women in rural areas are considered as the sole source of recreation. No

12
other “entertainment” alternatives left for the poverty-ridden common man but to procreate; easy and
cheap to acquire
They are not required to give opinion in bearing number of children. Same inequality is
observed while providing education.
Effects
• Economic Effects
• Proportion of working adults diminishes because more and more child labor is
taking place which seriously damage the overall economy as well as the image of
nation.
• Dependency burden increases because of more children due to decrease in infant
mortality and increase in fertility rates. Senior citizens with improved health,
which decreases their mortality rates.
• Unemployment
Immigration
Immigration to other countries for better employment opportunities; brain drain
o Increased illegal immigration to other countries

Health Effects
• Increased rates of hemorrhagic fevers and other infectious disease brought on by crowding

• Malnutrition; starvation; increased rate of diet-deficiency disease (eg rickets)

• Low birth weights of infants, due to:

o Mothers being unable to sustain adequate diet during pregnancy to sustain the fetus to

full term

• Low life expectancy

3. Social Problems

13
 • Polygamy
Multiple marriages are becoming a trend. People go for marrying more than one
woman despite of their needs just for the purpose of entertainment.
• Old age Security
Parents bear more children in order to ensure the security of their future.

Effects
• Overall decrease in standard of living
• Lack of skilled labor

4. Economic Problems
• Agrarian land require more labor
• Overpopulation is the problem in developing countries. As we know that
developing countries are at agrarian stage and more labor is therefore required to
fulfill the needs.

Effects
• Environmental Effects
• Pressure on agriculture
• Deforestation/Desertification

o Unsustainable use/depletion of natural resources

o Loss of entire ecosystems; disturbed natural cycles

o Mass species extinctions

• More waste production; impacts water supply, land, natural resources.

• Increased energy consumption leads to gradual depletion of natural resources

• Increased pollution (air, water, noise, soil)

14
• Inadequate fresh water supply (for drinking, sewage treatment, and industrial effluent

discharge)

• Global warming due to:

o Changes in atmospheric composition due to pollution

• Vertical Housing schemes

• Decrease in capacity of roads to carry motor vehicles

5. Demographic Transitions
• External Migrations
Refugees that are coming from Afghanistan are increasing in the overall population in
Pakistan

Effects
Environmental effects as already mentioned

6. Psychological Issues
• Status Inequality
Basically those having low income and low status cling to bear more children in order to
cope up with the inferiority complex
• Fear of Infant mortality increases fertility rates.
Fertility is the number of children a couple have. Mostly in least developed countries the fear and the
actual death of infants increase this rate. Fertility is seen as symbols of prosperity, prestige, and
security.

Effects
• Social Effects
• Decrease in education level, due to:

o Higher teacher/student ratio

15
• Decrease in health standards, due to:

o Higher doctor/patient ratio

• Conflict on scarce resources

• Elevated crime rates due to unemployment

7. Improvement in technology
• Rapid Expansion of Agriculture
The use of technology has made possible the rapid expansion of agriculture in the
LDCs. The use of pesticides in LDCs, for example has increased between 400 to
600% in the last 25 years of the twentieth century. In more recent years, the
technology has produced a broader variety of techniques: new kinds of seed, chemical
fertilizers, pesticides, and more sophisticated machinery.

• Improvement in public health

Scientists have learned a great deal about the ways to prevent and cure many types of
disease. Thus, millions of people who would have died of disease a century ago are
more likely to live to old age. The most effective tools in the con-quest of disease
have been improved knowledge about nutrition, vaccinations, better public health
practices and the development of new medicines. And finally, with the advent of new
medicines, disease was less of a problem in MDCs because medical science has
invented a whole range of new medicines with which to treat everything from
infections to pneumonia. In many LDCs, new drugs and medicines are simply not
available.

Effects
Environmental effects as already mentioned

16
 Trunk Problem
“Unawareness of the consequences and irrational thinking”
Basically this problem is social. Unawareness is the root cause of all other causes. People
give birth to children without considering their resources exceeding their capacity to
support them but are unaware of the aftermath. They are not aware that how not required
children for when the given resources do not meet their basic needs can add in their
misery.
Irrational thinking is basically their reluctance to benefit from medical technology even if
they are accessed to it. As it is also in the causes that religious hard thinkers, which
actually include so called maulanas preach not to do family planning as it is considered to
be a sin.
All the traditional barriers, which include early marriages and gender inequality, are the
result of illogical and irrational thinking.
Unawareness include illiteracy, low nutritional knowledge, reluctance to follow
population policies. Irrational thinking is basically misinterpreting the actual thing into
ridiculous. For example as we have already seen in the cause of religious and ideological
conservativeness.

17
 Situation of population Growth in
Pakistan
The continued high fertility and rapid growth of population has made Pakistan the sixth
most populous country in the world with a population of 158 million. The population of
Pakistan in 2003 was estimated by the United Nations at 153,578,000, which placed it on
number 6 in population among the 193 nations of the world. In that year approximately
4% of the population was over 65 years of age, with another 42% of the population under
15 years of age. There were 105 males for every 100 females in the country in 2003.
According to the UN, the annual population growth rate for 2000–2005 was 2.44%, with
the projected population for the year 2015 at 204,465,000.

Pakistan is likely to become the world’s fourth most populous country in the year 2050
having a population of 305 million, with the current population growth rate of 2.1 percent
per annum (most populous country by the year 2050)

Over the past decade, there has been a meaningful slowing of population growth rate in
Pakistan. However, the rate is still high and child survivability has improved. Presently
70% of the population is below the age of 30 years old. This demographic transition can
be a serious issue for the future.

According to the official figures the population growth of Pakistan came down from the
over three percent in the earlier years to 2.6 per cent in the mid-1980s and then to two
percent in the year 2000. But the people who see infants being born in high numbers,
except for the modern families, don’t believe the growth rate has really come down to
two per cent. The Economic Survey says that if the population growth had slowed to two
percent then population would now have been 103.4 million instead of 155 million.

In Pakistan the decline in mortality rate is due to the elimination of epidemic diseases and
improvement in medical services. However, despite a considerable decline in the total
mortality, infant mortality still remained high at 77 per thousand live births in 2005. The

18
major reasons for this high rate of infant and child mortality are diarrhea and pneumonia.
Maternal mortality ratio ranges from 350-400 per hundred thousand births per year
leading to about 17,000 newborn babies being born motherless, the figures reveal.

Population growth rate, with estimates taken from the 2006 of Pakistan is 1.84.The high
population growth rate of Pakistan has been adversely affecting its economic growth rate
so far. Normally, when a country becomes rich its population begins contracting. For
example Northern Europe, South Korea, although in the 1960s both started off on a
similar economic base. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have been able to achieve low
population growth rate because of women’s education and profitable employment.

In Pakistan, with the inadequacy and poor quality of education with our ghost schools
and ghost teachers and with our indifference to the abuses of child labour which is a
process of earning , we have over 1,800 camel-riding kids left trapped in the Gulf states.
Poverty at this end and good monetary rewards at the other end make the parents agree to
let their little kids ride those racing camels. A large number of them have died in the
process. Yet the cruel game has been going on for long with more kids being dumped in.

Due to rapid growth of population in Pakistan the large population base with its high
annual growth the country has today a large number of uneducated, untrained and
unskilled persons who are unemployed. They migrate from the rural areas to the cities
and start living in Katchi Abadis where there are no basic facilities When jobs are not
available crime breeds there.

The fact is that as long Pakistan has a large population and a high population growth rate,
our economic growth will be below the country’s real potential. And the negative features
of our system will be large in size and too many in numbers. Much of the resources of the
country would go into consumption and too little of them in production. Our exportable
surplus will be small and the exports far below the country’s potential.

19
We have mostly unskilled manpower, and what is produced in terms of value is small
compared to average Japanese or US worker’s products. In fact as the population
increases and more food is needed, more and more of the farming areas are converted
into residential colonies and the arable area becomes less and less.

The environmental pollution caused by a large population is excessive, unless the people
are too disciplined. Sewerage disposal over here becomes more and more of a problem.
And now the sea is flowing into the cultivable land in Sindh and reducing the forming
area.

There are too many people everywhere. Over four million people are employed by the
central, provincial and local governments. Their pension bill is enormous and weighs
down on the government as the people live longer than before.

In Pakistan, in 1980-81 the number of women was 40.42 million while that of men was
44.67 million but in 2005 women are 76.36 million and men 77.59 million ,a gap of 1.23
million compared to over four million earlier.

Federal minister for population Chaudhri Shahbaz Hussain says that the population
Planning Department is hiring 13,000 Imams and Khatibs to start a training programme.
It is good to use the services of Imams for controlling population if they take their task
earnestly. In Egypt the Rector of Al Azhar university had declared family planning in
conformity with Islamic teachings several decades ago and the Imams in Iran also play a
role in keeping the population growth in decline. But in Pakistan President Ziaul Haq had
said on TV, “God creates and God sustains. You go on doing your job.” Such open
rejection of family planning from the top was too discouraging to the family planning
staff. But the time has come to take family planning seriously when we do not have
enough drinking water and we live in the dark half the time because of power failure. Let
us keep our numbers down instead of making them more and more.

20
However, growth has been uneven and widespread poverty persists, particularly in the
rural areas, where two thirds of the population lives. Pakistan ranks 134th of the 173
countries on the United Nations Development Programme's Human Development Index
(Human Development Report, 1998). At least 35 million people live in abject poverty
and public access to health, education, clean water, sanitation and family planning
remains low.
Alarming increase in population, there was an average of 5,000 cubic meters of water for
each person in 1947 but now the ratio had decreased to 1,000 cubic meters. Pakistan's
extremely high rate of population growth is caused by a falling death rate combined with
a continuing high birth rate. Pakistan's cities are expanding much faster than the overall
population. At independence in 1947, many refugees from India settled in urban areas.
The presence of large numbers Afghan refugees has had a large impact on the
demographics of Pakistan. The influx of refugees has had profound social consequences,
and the population of desert areas has also had an effect on the environment. Initially,
Pakistanis wanted to help their neighbors in a time of need, but difficulties slowly led
many to think that their friendship had gone far enough. And this rapid population growth
is affecting our country in a very negative way.
Pakistan Population Distribution and Density

Pakistan's people are not evenly distributed throughout the country. There is an average
of 146 persons per square kilometer, but the density varies dramatically, ranging from
scarcely populated arid areas, especially in Balochistan, to some of the highest urban
densities in the world in Karachi and Lahore.

About 68 percent of the population lived in rural areas in 1994, a decrease of 7 percent
since 1970. In contrast, the number of people living in urban areas has risen substantially,
resulting in an urban growth rate of 4.6 percent between 1980 and 1991.

More than half of Pakistan's population is below the age of fifteen; nearly a third is below
the age of nine. For cultural reasons, enumerating the precise number of females has been
difficult and estimates of the percentage of females in the population range from 47.5
percent in the 1981 census to 48.3 percent in the 1987-88 Labour Force Survey. Pakistan

21
is one of the few countries in the world with an inverse sex ratio: official sources claim
there are 111 men for every 100 women. The discrepancy is particularly obvious among
people over fifty: men account for 7.1 percent of the country's total population and
women for less than 5 percent.
Index of Pakistan population

22
 Population Policy of Pakistan
In 1952 the Family Planning Association of Pakistan, initiated efforts to contain
population growth. Three years later, the government began to fund the association and
noted the need to reduce population growth in its First Five-Year Plan (1955-60). The
government soon combined its population planning efforts in hospitals and clinics into a
single program. Thus population planning was a dual effort led by the Family Planning
Association and the public sector.
In the mid-1960s, the Ministry of Health initiated a program in which intrauterine
devices (IUDs) were promoted. Payments were offered to hospitals and clinics as
incentives, and midwives were trained to treat patients. The government was able to
attract funding from many international donors, but the program lost support because the
targets were overly ambitious and because doctors and clinics allegedly over reported
their services to claim incentive payments.
The population planning program was suspended and substantively reorganized after the
fall of Mohammad Ayub Khan's government in 1969. In late December 1971, the
population was estimated at 65.2 million. In an attempt to control the population problem,
the government introduced several new programs. First, the Continuous Motivation
System Programme, which employed young urban women to visit rural areas, was
initiated. In 1975 the Inundation Programme was added. Based on the premise that
greater availability would increase use, shopkeepers throughout the country stocked birth
control pills and condoms. Both programs failed, however. The unmarried urban women
had little understanding of the lives of the rural women they were to motivate, and
shopkeepers kept the contraceptives out of sight because it was considered manner less to
display them in an obvious way.
Following Zia ul-Haq's coup in 1977, government population planning efforts were
almost halted. In 1980 the Population Division, formerly under the direction of a minister
of state, was renamed the Population Welfare Division and transferred to the Ministry
of Planning and Economic Development. This agency was charged with the delivery of
both family planning services and maternal and child health care. This reorganized
structure corresponded with the new population planning strategy, which was based on a

23
multifaceted community-based "cafeteria" approach, in cooperation with Family Welfare
Centres (essentially clinics) and Reproductive Health Centres (mostly engaged in
sterilizations). Community participation had finally become a cornerstone of the
government's policy, and it was hoped that contraceptive use would rise dramatically.
The population by 1980 had exceeded 84 million.
In preparing the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1983-88), the government projected a national
population of 147 million in the year 2000 if the growth rate were to be a constant at 2.8
percent per year, and of 134 million if the rate were to decline to the desired 2.1 percent
per year by then. By the Seventh Five-Year Plan (1988-93) period, the multipronged
approach initiated in the 1980s had increased international donor assistance and had
begun to enlist local NGOs. Efforts to improve maternal and child health were coupled
with education campaigns. Because of local mores concerning modesty, the government
avoided explicit reference to contraceptive devices and instead focused its public
education efforts on encouraging couples to limit their family size to two children.\

Pakistan’s new National Population Policy is consistent with ICPD objectives, focused on
national needs, seeks to incorporate population concerns into relevant development
strategies & plans and has integrated factors amongst others, relating to family planning
quality care, empowerment of women and improvement in service delivery.

The Population Policy addresses population issue centering on meeting the needs of
families in the unique social and cultural milieu of Pakistan. It builds around sustained
political commitment and the necessity for mobilizing broad support from various
stakeholders. These two factors are essential to achieve sustained economic growth
within the context of sustainable development. They directly contribute to improving the
welfare of individuals and the nation as a whole through reduced poverty, better health,
education and enhanced living standards. The Policy has a wide scope touching on
economy, human rights and the long-term prosperity of Pakistan. It pursues the core
problems such as low status of women, striking gender inequalities, high and rising levels
of poverty, insufficient allocation and expenditures in the social sector and the lack of
commitment to provide access to quality social services.

24
Based on demographic realities, to be effective the policy addresses the following three
objectives:

• Reduction in rate & incidence of unwanted fertility.

• Reduction in demand for large family size.
• Greater investment in the youthful population
• Focus on male involvement

The policy also recognizes that Pakistan is faced with its ever-largest adolescent
population. It has serious immediate implications for provision of schooling and health
services. Providing adequate jobs for this cohort is going to depend on both the successes
of economic revival program and reduction in fertility level.

The Policy proposes that concurrent with keeping a vigilant eye on the stabilization of
population growth a paradigm shift be made towards arresting the falling quality of life
standard, achieving low fertility desire through client centered quality services. It strives
for completion of the demographic transition which through decreasing fertility will
substantially contribute to the nation’s much needed economic revival. The overall vision
of the Policy is to address various dimensions of population issues in an informed,
voluntary and coordinated manner by Government, NGOs, private sector and civil
society.

In nutshell, the Population Policy sets out a broad framework and provides futuristic
vision to achieve the ultimate aim of reducing poverty and raising the quality of life of
the common man and woman. Efforts of all the stakeholders from the public sector, civil
society and the private sector would be instrumental in carrying forward the objective of
the Population Policy for providing sustainable development, creating conditions for
achieving replacement fertility levels followed by population stabilization, raising life
expectancy at birth for both men and women, reducing infant and child mortality as well
as maternal mortality, ensuring empowerment of women in decision-making and
providing family planning and reproductive health services to all citizens of Pakistan.
The Population Policy would seek implementation of a human rights agenda that has won
broad global consensus. It is note worthy that government recognizes the significance of

25
the population issue and expression of which is that the Population Policy under
reference, is the first ever to be formulated, it has stakeholder ownership and is under
submission to Cabinet for approval.

Population Sector Objectives and Goals

Goals

• Decrease the population growth rate from 2.1% in 2001 to 1.82% in 2004 and
1.6% by the 2012.
• Achieve a replacement level of fertility by the year 2020.
• Increase pace of fertility decline. Increase contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR)
from existing 30% to 43% in 2004 to 57% in 2012.
• Sustain increase in age of marriage of girls and ensuring a reduction in population
momentum through a delay in marriage and birth spacing patterns which should
reduce proportion of under 15 population from current 40 per cent to 30 per cent.
• Increase programme coverage from 65% in 2001 to 76% in 2004 and 100 percent
by the year 2010.

Objectives

• Encourage males as partners in the programme and promote responsible

fatherhood.
• Merge existing vertical MOPW and MOH family planning grass root female
cadre for doors step coverage of unmet need.
• All service outlets of Health Departments and Provincial Line Departments will
offer family planning.
• Improve governance of population welfare programme.
• Close the gap between Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP).
• Expand social marketing of contraceptives.
• Enhance involvement of NGOs/civil society organizations.
• Encourage private sector industrial organizations.

Demographic Goals

26
No. Indicators 2001 2002 2003 2004 2012
(Benchmark
)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
(i) Total Fertility 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6 2.8
Rate (TFR)
(ii) Crude Birth 30.2 28.7 27.3 26 22.8
Rate (CBR)
(iii) Crude Death 8.5 8.2 8 7.8 6.3
Rate (CDR)
(iv) Population 2.17 2.05 1.93 1.82 1.6
Growth Rate
(PGR)
(v) Life
Expectancy 62.9 63.4 63.9 64.4 68.7
at Birth 62.9 63.4 63.9 64.4 69.1
Total: 62.9 63.4 63.9 64.4 68.3
Male
Female
(vi) Contraceptive 30 34 37 40 53
Prevalence
Rate (CPR)

27
Issues and Strategies

28
Issues Objective/Goal Strategies
Low Coverage • Increase programme • Improve efficiency
coverage from 65% through merged
• High unmet need for in 2001 to 76% in cadre of Family
family planning 2004 and 100 Health Workers
33% percent by the year located in MOH.
2010. Family Planning in
• Encourage males as PHC project
partners in the performance to be
programme and measured against
promote responsible PIs.
fatherhood. • Improve status of
• Merge existing women by creating
vertical MOPW and linkages between
MOH family poverty, family
planning grass root security and life
female cadre for span health care.
doors step coverage • Increase and
of unmet need. strengthen male
• All service outlets of cadre of motivators
Health Departments, from District to
Provincial Line Union Council level
Department will to close gap of
offer family female directed
planning. programme.
• Improve governance • Family Planning
of population Referrals through
welfare programme. volunteer family
planning male and
female agents at
District and below
level.
• Devise and HRD
Plan and introduce
result based
management
through programme
MIS
• Make family
planning service
delivery mandatory
in all Health
Departments.
Implementation of the Population Policy:

29
Government of Pakistan has formulated many policies regarding to control the population
growth in Pakistan through many programs at national level. In which Family planning’s
different versions of strategies are on the screen. Government of Pakistan has also
involved the NGO’s in this mission as well, and they are also busy in implementation by
using several effective tools and instruments. But due to many factors, many policies are
formulated and get vanished without being implemented. The most prominent factors are;

• Illiteracy
• Low access to the sources
• Corruption
• Old and fake traditions (rural areas especially)
• Poverty
• Weak status of Women
• Male dominance
• Molvi’s and Sufi’s self created Islamic Lectures
• Unstable Governmental Conditions

Due to all these and other hidden factors, every policy is being prepared both by the
Government and semi-Government agencies, but without implementation they got
disappeared from the surface. Only few polices are supposed to be implemented in urban
areas but in rural areas although there are some health centers are working, but their
existence is totally useless. And Pakistan’s total population lives in the rural areas, where
all the above mentioned factors are present. In this awful situation how can be the
population controlled? So the rate of population growth is increasing day by day in
Pakistan.

Involvement of NGO’s/Civil Society/Private Sector

• Networking with social organization i.e. community based workers, rural support
programs, NGOs etc.
• Expand the Social Marketing of contraceptives for improved access and
encourage local manufacture of contraceptives.

30
• To formulate National Population Policy.
• To hold periodic reviews of implementation of policy/programmed with a view to
measure progress and identify major hurdles and constraints in the realization of
policy/programmed objectives.
• To ensure coordination between the federal and provincial governments in the
attainment of these objectives.
• To act as a think tank and advisory body for the Federal Cabinet as well as
Provincial Governments.
• Similarly Provincial Population Council to be set up and will be headed by
Governors/Chief Ministers.

31
 References
http://www.photius.com/countries/pakistan/society/pakistan_society_population_plannin
g_~10377.html

http://www.photius.com/countries/pakistan/society/pakistan_society_population_distribut
~10376.html

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_
pop.html#Past

http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html

32
Appendix

33
 Projected Population

Rank 2015 2025 2050

World 7,207,361 7,936,741 9,322,251
1 India 1,230,484 1,351,801 1,572,055
2 China 1,410,217 1,470,787 1,462,058
3 United States of America 321,225 346,822 397,063
4 Pakistan 204,267 250,981 344,170
5 Indonesia 250,068 272,911 311,335
6 Nigeria 165,313 202,957 278,788
7 Bangladesh 183,159 210,823 265,432
8 Brazil 201,393 218,980 247,244
9 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 84,045 114,876 203,527
10 Ethiopia 89,765 113,418 186,452
11 Mexico 119,175 130,194 146,651
12 Philippines 95,881 107,073 128,383
13 Vietnam 94,413 105,488 123,782
14 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 87,103 99,343 121,424
15 Egypt 84,425 94,777 113,840
16 Japan 127,522 123,798 109,220
17 Russian Federation 133,314 125,687 104,258
18 Yemen 33,118 48,206 102,379
19 Uganda 38,739 53,765 101,524
20 Turkey 79,004 86,611 98,818
21 Unites republic of Tanzania 49,343 60,395 82,740
22 Thailand 72,490 77,480 82,491
23 Afghanistan 35,577 45,193 72,267
24 Colombia 52,641 59,161 70,862
25 Germany 80,673 78,897 70,805
26 Myanmar 55,260 60,243 68,546
27 Sudan 42,433 49,556 63,530
28 France 61,892 62,753 61,832
29 Saudi Arabia 31,748 40,473 59,683
30 United Kingdom 60,566 61,243 58,933
31 Kenya 40,001 44,897 55,368
32 Argentina 43,498 47,160 54,522
33 Iraq 33,550 40,298 53,574
34 Angola 20,795 28,213 53,328
35 Nepal 32,138 38,706 52,415
36 Niger 18,482 25,725 51,872
37 Republic of Korea 50,631 52,065 51,560
38 Algeria 38,022 42,738 51,180
39 Morocco 37,680 42,002 50,361

34
40 South Africa 44,616 43,772 47,301
41 Madagascar 24,072 30,759 47,030
42 Burkina Faso 18,509 25,227 46,304
43 Italy 55,239 52,364 42,962
44 Venezuela 30,554 34,775 42,152
45 Peru 31,876 35,518 42,122
46 Mali 17,657 23,461 41,724
47 Somalia 15,405 21,192 40,936
48 Uzbekistan 30,554 34,203 40,513
49 Canada 34,419 36,717 40,407
50 Ghana 26,378 30,936 40,056
51 Mozambique 23,526 28,012 38,837
52 Malaysia 27,911 31,326 37,850
53 Syrian Arab Republic 23,206 27,410 36,345
54 Poland 38,035 37,254 33,370
55 Cameroon 20,226 23,986 32,284
56 Côte d'Ivoire 21,529 25,024 32,185
57 Spain 39,018 37,395 31,282
58 Malawi 15,656 19,544 31,114
59 Ukraine 43,335 39,569 29,959
60 Cambodia 18,585 22,310 29,883
61 Zambia 14,796 19,026 29,262
62 Dem. People's Rep. of Korea 24,396 25,872 28,038
63 Chad 12,376 16,383 27,732
64 Guatemala 16,329 19,624 26,551
65 Australia 1 21,910 23,523 26,502
66 Zimbabwe 16,368 18,672 23,546
67 Sri Lanka 21,451 22,529 23,066
68 Chile 17,912 19,548 22,732
69 Senegal 13,516 16,511 22,711
70 Guinea 11,300 14,120 20,711
71 Burundi 9,835 12,390 20,218
72 Rwanda 10,504 12,883 18,523
73 Romania 21,437 20,585 18,150
74 Benin 9,448 11,992 18,070
75 Bolivia 11,218 13,131 16,966
76 Netherlands 16,420 16,571 15,845
77 Kazakhstan 15,957 16,090 15,302
78 Liberia 5,550 7,638 14,370
79 Sierra Leone 7,115 9,052 14,351
80 Tunisia 11,257 12,343 14,076
81 Haiti 10,215 11,549 13,982
82 Honduras 8,703 10,106 12,845

35
83 Paraguay 7,773 9,355 12,565
84 Togo 6,576 8,219 11,832
85 Occupied Palestinian Terr. 5,317 7,145 11,821
86 Jordan 7,191 8,666 11,709
87 Nicaragua 7,216 8,606 11,477
88 Lao Peoples's Dem. Republic 7,334 8,721 11,438
89 Papua New Guinea 6,642 8,023 10,980
90 El Salvador 7,979 8,975 10,855
91 Cuba 11,644 11,733 10,764
92 Congo 4,730 6,284 10,744
93 Israel 7,714 8,486 10,065
94 Eritrea 5,720 7,063 10,028
95 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 7,058 7,972 9,969
96 Tajikistan 7,097 8,066 9,763
97 China,Hong kong SAR 2 8,025 8,678 9,648
98 Belgium 10,272 10,205 9,583
99 Yugoslavia 10,309 10,044 9,030
100 Portugal 10,030 9,831 9,006
101 Greece 10,472 10,149 8,983
102 Azerbaijan 8,725 9,076 8,897
103 Oman 4,110 5,411 8,751
104 Czech Republic 10,028 9,727 8,429
105 Turkmenistan 6,059 6,844 8,401
106 Belarus 9,664 9,335 8,305
107 Central African Republic 4,877 5,886 8,195
108 Sweden 8,625 8,518 7,777
109 Kyrgyzstan 5,836 6,460 7,538

Pakis
110 ungary 9,254 8,783 7,486
111 Costa Rica 5,233 5,929 7,195
112 Austria 7,848 7,605 6,452
113 Switzerland 6,972 6,729 5,607
114 Bhutan 3,070 3,843 5,569
115 Ireland 4,410 4,745 5,366
116 Denmark 5,372 5,359 5,080
117 Lebanon 4,219 4,581 5,018
118 Norway 4,670 4,800 4,880
119 Puerto Rico 4,390 4,615 4,835
120 Finland 5,180 5,138 4,693
121 Slovakia 5,420 5,317 4,674
122 Singapore 4,756 4,998 4,620

36
123 Bulgaria 6,816 6,125 4,531
124 New Zealand 4,141 4,302 4,439
125 Panama 3,451 3,779 4,262
126 Uruguay 3,670 3,871 4,249
127 Croatia 4,622 4,519 4,179
128 Mongolia 3,085 3,478 4,146
129 Kuwait 2,766 3,219 4,001
130 Albania 3,439 3,676 3,905
131 Jamaica 2,957 3,264 3,815
132 United Arab Emirates 3,230 3,468 3,709
133 Namibia 2,313 2,776 3,662
134 Republic of Moldova 4,152 4,052 3,577
135 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4,279 4,165 3,458
136 Guinea-Bissau 1,727 2,170 3,276
137 Georgia 4,775 4,377 3,219
138 Gabon 1,757 2,178 3,164
139 Armenia 3,808 3,736 3,150
140 Lithuania 3,538 3,418 2,989
141 Gambia 1,781 2,077 2,605
142 Lesotho 2,141 2,225 2,478
143 Botswana 1,694 1,826 2,109
144 Comoros 1,067 1,327 1,900
145 TFYR Macedonia 8 2,075 2,067 1,894
146 Latvia 2,225 2,090 1,744
147 Slovenia 1,926 1,847 1,527
148 Solomon Islands 719 943 1,458
149 Mauritius 1,301 1,374 1,426
150 Swaziland 1,022 1,138 1,391
151 Equatorial Guinea 692 889 1,378
152 Trinidad and Tobago 1,392 1,437 1,378
153 Djibouti 703 801 1,068
154 Bahrain 793 887 1,008
155 Reunion 845 911 1,002
156 Fiji 925 954 916
157 Cyprus 864 899 910
158 Maldives 453 580 868
159 Qatar 693 754 831
160 Cape Verde 567 647 807
161 Estonia 1,190 1,062 752
162 Luxembourg 518 576 715
163 Western Sahara 368 438 599
164 Brunei Darussalam 417 473 565
165 China, Macao SAR 3 499 529 527

37
166 Guyana 749 703 504
167 French Guiana 255 326 503
168 Guadeloupe 471 487 479
169 Vanuatu 282 342 462
170 Bahamas 359 393 449
171 Suriname 437 442 418
172 Martinique 410 421 413
173 Malta 411 418 400
174 New Caledonia 178 316 397
175 Belize 287 324 392
176 French Polynesia 288 318 372
177 Iceland 305 319 333
178 Guam 209 242 307
179 Sao Tome and Principe 178 208 294
180 Micronesia (Fed. state of) 172 204 269
181 Barbados 281 285 263
182 Netherlands Antilles 242 255 259
183 Aruba 157 194 242
184 Samoa 179 200 223
185 Northern Mariana Islands 124 157 216
186 Andorra 146 181 193
187 Saint Lucia 169 179 189
188 American Samoa 104 129 172
189 United States Virgin Islands 140 151 167
190 Seychelles 97 110 145
191 Kiribati 100 112 138
192 Saint Vincent and Grenadines 123 129 138
193 Tonga 105 110 125
194 Channel Islands 143 139 120
195 Grenada 97 100 105
196 Cayman Islands 59 72 89
197 Marshall Islands 62 69 85
198 Isle of Man 83 84 81
199 Bermuda 69 73 79
200 Antigua and Barbuda 68 70 73
201 Dominica 70 70 72
202 Greenland 58 59 62
203 Faroe Islands 52 55 55
204 British Virgin Islands 32 35 39
205 Liechtenstein 37 39 39
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 26 31 39
207 Palau 26 30 39
208 Monaco 37 39 38

38
209 Saint Kitts and Nevis 35 34 34
210 San Marino 31 32 30
211 Cook Islands 22 23 27
212 Nauru 17 20 26
213 Anguilla 16 19 23
214 Gibraltar 26 25 21
215 Wallis and Futuna Islands 16 17 19
216 Tuvalu 12 14 16
217 Montserrat 6 7 11
218 Saint Helena 7 7 8 10
219 Saint Pierre and Miqueleon 8 8 9
220 Falkland Islands 3 3 4
221 Niue 2 2 2
222 Holy See 4 1 1 1
223 Tokelau 1 1 1
224 Pitcairn 6 0 0 0
225 Dominican Republic N/A N/A N/A
226 East Timor N/A N/A N/A
227 Ecuador N/A N/A N/A

39
Traditional Barriers
Early Marriages Polygamy
Desire for a male child Old age Security
Gender Inequality
Religious and Ideological
Conservativeness
Allah is the Provider
Shyness and fear to
approach doctor
Immigration
Health Effects
Social Problems Economic Problems
Agrarian land require more labor Demographic Transitions
the problem in developing countries External Migrations
Improvement in technology
Rapid Expansion of Agriculture
Improvement in public health
Psychological Issues
Unawareness of the Status Inequality
consequences and
Fear of Infant mortality increases
irrational thinking
fertility rates.
Pressure on agriculture Decrease in education level, due to
Overall decrease in standard Deforestation/Desertification Decrease in health standards, due to
of living Vertical Housing schemes
Lack of skilled labor Decrease in capacity of roads to
carry motor vehicles
40