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number 6, 2010
then goes on to analyse the historical during their economic takeoff years. In
roots of the Southern Engines’ develop- particular, it is argued that (a) the
ment experiences, their growth out- segmentation of global manufacturing
look, and the impact of capital flows. and services provided China and sub
The evolving global trade, technology sequently India with the opportunity
2 Policy Brief
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The Global Impact of the Southern Engines of Growth: China, India, Brazil and South Africa 3
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alternative sources of development China, a labour-surplus economy, infrastructure, and buoyant prospects
assistance for developing countries. is rapidly experiencing a scarcity of for world mineral markets, South
China is regarded as an economic labour, whereas South Africa—which Africa’s labour market trends, with
and political driver of the international historically has featured worker their implication of rising numbers in
economy, particularly in the trade shortages—is increasingly suffering poverty, pose a risk to the success of the
arena and global governance. The from a labour surplus in the form of economy as a whole.
economic engagement of China with open unemployment. South Africa’s Besides growth, international trade
developing countries and regions labour market structure is affected has affected employment in the manu-
entails interactions in the areas of both by the rural-urban migration as facturing sector in India vis-à-vis devel-
labour, human rights, international well as from inflows of foreign workers. oping countries in Africa and Asia.
relations, security, and environmental But the standard Lewis model does not The ratio of unskilled labour-intensive
sustainability. The potential threats are respond to the outlined cases: in nei- goods in India’s export basket has
mostly associated with trade and finan- ther China nor South Africa does increased over time, defying the stand-
cial flows, and with the social and pol- the relative price mechanism operate. ard predictions of the classical theory
itical implications of China’s financial That is, changes in agricultural prices of international trade. Also, the
outflows. Nevertheless, in the midst of have been determined by government employment coefficients of exports and
the recent global economic crises, interventions and by other political imports in India have consistently
emerging countries proved to be a economy influences, such as trade liber- fallen over time, and the employment
cushion to the declining flows of alization. In both countries there is a impacts of trade have declined in the
resources from advanced nations. strong urban bias in terms of economic post-reform period. Most of the rise in
Another set of lessons for develop- policies, and in the behaviour of formal employment rates is attributed to
ing countries emanates from the coun- sector wages, which are determined increases in domestic demand and less
tries’ internal dynamics. The labour well above the market-clearing level. to international trade.
market peculiarities, particularly in Furthermore, China’s comparative India’s experience reveals an unpar-
post-reform China, are key in under- advantage in unskilled labour-intensive alleled paradigm of the role of techno-
standing how economic growth has led activities—alongside the scaling up of logical progress, and the transmission
to labour surplus absorption. In China its production and export baskets—has channels through which macroeco-
and South Africa, labour and migra- iterated with an improvement in the nomic fundamentals can explain the
tion dynamics have shaped each stage investment climate. This is in step with country’s economic success, primarily
of the country’s development. Consist- a continuous, virtuous circle of growth. by inducing changes in productivity.
ent with the classical Lewis Model, In contrast, South Africa’s relatively Changes in labour market antagonisms
surplus labour from traditional agricul- slow growth rate is associated with its and investment market frictions (such
tural sector has shifted to the progres- relatively mature economy, with as taxing labour income) did not play a
sive industrial sector, whose growth resources other than unskilled labour significant role. The Indian experience
over time should absorb the labour, being fully employed, and low investor in targeting productivity evokes that of
promote industrialization and stimu- confidence—on account, perhaps, of other successful Asian economies such
late sustainable development. the social instability and crime that as Japan in a similar stage of develop-
China and South Africa share stem from high unemployment and ment, or during the take-off process.
various binding characteristics related concern about the extent of labour pro-
to the labour markets. These include an tection. Its comparative advantage in Investment,Trade and Growth
extensive rural-urban inequity, rapid natural-resource-intensive activities, Domestic and foreign investment
rural-urban migration despite various such as gold, diamonds and minerals,
restrictions, and high and rising real has not provided scope for the rapid The role of FDI in the Chinese econ-
wages in the formal sector. China and expansion of exports, and therefore the omy is well-known. Emerging empirical
South Africa differ, however, in the process of cumulative causation has not evidence shows that FDI complements
dynamism of their formal sector unfolded into higher growth. Despite rather than crowds out domestic
growth of output and employment, and competent macroeconomic policies, a investment. Thus, foreign investment
in the growth of their labour forces. strong entrepreneurial sector, sound has not only helped in overcoming the
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shortage of capital, but also in stimu ing system, which has been considered especially in clothing, textile and
lating economic growth through the “weakest link” in China. A key leather products. There is moderate
complementing domestic investment. issue is whether the Chinese state com- potential for expanding trade between
Nevertheless, FDI may have brought mercial banks have reacted positively the two countries. China poses a chal-
some unwanted consequences such as and successfully to ownership reforms lenge for the East Asian economies,
increasing income and regional and other challenges ahead of the entry USA, and most European countries
inequality, social stratification, little or of foreign financial institutions. It is especially in medium technology indus-
declining capacity of labour absorption. discovered that ownership reform tries. India appears to be a competitor
The impact of FDI on inequality and foreign competition have forced mainly for its neighbours in South
can be examined by assessing whether Chinese commercial banks to improve Asia; Chinese and Indian imports com-
and how it has contributed to conver- their performance, as their total factor plement exports from the US, some
gence or divergence of income across productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per European nations and East Asian
China’s regions. It is found that China’s annum during 1998–2005. However, countries, especially Japan, Korea,
regions can converge to their own much of the productivity gain was due Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand,
steady states, but only after controlling to efficiency gains and not so much due implying opportunities for trade
for the differences in saving rates, to technological progress. expansion. Also, China’s export struc-
population growth, human capital ture is changing with the export of skill
endowment, transportation, FDI Trade interactions with developing intensive and high technology products
inflows and exports. And, FDI seems countries: Complementary or increasing and those of labour intensive
to have the same impact at the national competitive? products decreasing gradually. This
and sub-national (regional) levels on China’s performance and trade expan- suggests that the challenges to other
economic growth. Consequently, it is sion have led to concerns about the labour intensive exporting countries,
the unequal distribution of FDI across competition pressure on other develop- trigged by China’s exports, might
regions, rather than FDI inflows per ing countries, especially in economies decrease in the long run.
se, that has contributed to income that share similar specialization pat-
inequality. terns in medium technology and Southern Growth Engines and
Accompanying FDI is the expan- labour-intensive manufactures. China Technology Giants:The Evolving
sion of the private firms and multi has had a significant impact on the Global Trade and Innovation
national corporations (MNCs). exports of a number of Latin American Systems
Particularly, capital cities are attractive countries and this influence has The structure of production and the
for firms to locate to. In India and increased since China joined the WTO specialization of trade have evolved in
China, labour-intensive firms tend not in 2001 with the phasing out of the recent years, notably in China, Brazil
to locate in mid-sized or large cities as Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. and India. Research further shows that
compared to smaller ones, due to This impact is more acute on middle- developing countries have become
higher wages, training and attrition income economies such as Central increasingly engaged in sophisticated
costs. Although labour regulations in America and the Dominican Republic, and technology-intensive production
China and India deter firms from and also some South American coun- and trade, shifting from labour to
locating in the larger cities, firms in the tries (for example, Bolivia, Brazil and capital-intensive commodities, and
export sector prefer to be in large cities. Paraguay). Similarly, Latin American enjoying rapid productivity gains across
Proximity to inputs within the city has countries have lost a significant market all manufacturing activities. A key
a positive impact on firm location. share in USA to China since 2001, par- finding from the literature is that coun-
These findings have important policy ticularly for manufactured goods. This tries with higher share of technology-
implications for urban governance, is a challenge for some middle-income intensive sectors benefit more from
infrastructure, labour and environmen- economies, which feature a high con- technological learning and innovation.
tal policies, which are key issues for centration of production and exports. In addition, they are more able to
growth and development. Regarding trade dynamics in Asia, respond to changes in the international
Domestic investment relies heavily there is evidence that India faces com- markets and to enter new and more
on the proper functioning of the bank- petition from China in third markets, dynamic productive sectors.
The Global Impact of the Southern Engines of Growth: China, India, Brazil and South Africa 5
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The performance of Brazil with personnel. In this regard, the govern- The exports of information, com-
China, India and South Africa can be ment has played a key role in promot- munication and technology (ICT) have
evaluated by analyzing the direction ing innovation capacity in both been key in driving the Southern
and intensity of structural change (i.e. countries, and in transforming the Engines’ economic success, mostly in
those in which technologically intensive national innovation systems. Particu- China and India. Empirical analysis
sectors increase their participation in larly worth noting are the government shows that Chinese exports have expe-
the economy). Structural change has initiatives, in tandem with global driv- rienced rapid growth since the early
been relatively weak in Brazil, ers, which foster linkages of the science 1990s; the country’s market share in
contributing to a less dynamic growth sector with the business sector, provid- both Japan and the US has risen
6 Policy Brief
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(which was the turning point in China’s tutional arrangements needed for
economic development), and the adap- reforms to succeed and to achieve
tive capacity of the countries’ economic desirable ends. Many generations of
agents to this process. Second, indus- reforms have led an international
trial policy has been at the heart of agenda, but the lessons provided by sui
development policies and strategies in generis experiences such as the Asian
developing countries, although not par- giants—China and India—and other
The Global Impact of the Southern Engines of Growth: China, India, Brazil and South Africa 7
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INSIDE:
Policy Brief
T he Global Impact of
UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU- the Southern Engines
WIDER) is a research and training centre of the United Nations
University. UNU-WIDER was established by the United Nations of Growth: China,
University (UNU) as its first research and training centre and
started work in Helsinki, Finland in 1985. The Institute undertakes
India, Brazil and
applied research and policy analysis on structural changes affecting South Africa
the developing and transitional economies, provides a forum for the
advocacy of policies leading to robust, equitable and environmentally T he economic
sustainable growth, and promotes capacity strengthening and training in performances of the
the field of economic and social policy making. Work is carried out by Southern Engines has
staff researchers and visiting scholars in Helsinki and through networks altered the socio-economic
of collaborating scholars and institutions around the world.
landscape of the world, and
global development.
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Finland
Helsinki
Katajanokanlaituri 6 B FIN-00160
Economics Research
World Institute for Development
United Nations University
8 Policy Brief