MARKETING MANAGEMENT

12th edition

4
Conducting
Marketing Research
and Forecasting
Demand

Kotler Keller
Chapter Questions
• What constitutes good marketing
research?
• What are good metrics for measuring
marketing productivity?
• How can marketers assess their return
on investment of marketing
expenditures?
• How can companies more accurately
measure and forecast demand?
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Build-A-Bear
Workshop makes
the most of
“interactive
entertainment
retailing”

4-3
Marketing Research Defined

Systematic design, collection,

analysis, and reporting of data
and findings relevant to a specific
marketing situation facing a company.

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Karmaloop.com

4-5
Types of Marketing Research Firms

Syndicated- Specialty-
Custom
service line

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The Marketing Research Process

Define the problem

Develop research plan

Collect information
Make
Analyze information decision

Present findings

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Step 1

• Define the problem

• Specify decision alternatives
• State research objectives

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Step 2

Data Research
Sources Approach

Research Sampling
Instruments Plan

Contact
Methods
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Research Approaches
Observation
Observation

Focus
Focus Group
Group

Survey
Survey

Behavioral
Behavioral Data
Data

Experimentation
Experimentation

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Focus Group in Session

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Research Instruments

¾Questionnaires
¾Qualitative Measures
¾Mechanical Devices

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Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts

• Ensure questions are • Avoid negatives

free of bias • Avoid hypotheticals
• Make questions simple • Avoid words that could
• Make questions specific be misheard
• Avoid jargon • Use response bands
• Avoid sophisticated • Use mutually exclusive
words categories
• Avoid ambiguous words • Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions
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Question Types - Dichotomous

In arranging this trip, did you contact American

Airlines?
… Yes … No

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Question Types – Multiple Choice

With whom are you traveling on this trip?

… No one
… Spouse
… Spouse and children
… Children only
… Business associates/friends/relatives
… An organized tour group
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Question Types – Likert Scale

Indicate your level of agreement with the following

statement: Small airlines generally give better
service than large ones.
… Strongly disagree
… Disagree
… Neither agree nor disagree
… Agree
… Strongly agree
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Question Types – Semantic Differential

American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…………….Small
Experienced………………….………….Inexperienced
Modern………………………..………….Old-fashioned

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Question Types – Importance Scale

Airline food service is _____ to me.

… Extremely important
… Very important
… Somewhat important
… Not very important
… Not at all important

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Question Types – Rating Scale

American Airlines’ food service is _____.

… Excellent
… Very good
… Good
… Fair
… Poor

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Question Types –
Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on American
Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?
… Definitely buy
… Probably buy
… Not sure
… Probably not buy
… Definitely not buy

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Question Types –
Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?

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Question Types –
Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind
when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________

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Question Types –
Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important
consideration in my decision is:
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________.

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Question Types –
Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the
exterior and interior of the plane had very bright
colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts
and feelings.” Now complete the story.
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________

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Question Types –
Picture (Empty Balloons)

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Question Types –
Thematic Apperception Test

Make up a story that reflects what you think is

happening in this picture.
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Qualitative Measures
Shadowing
Shadowing

Behavior
Behavior mapping
mapping

Consumer
Consumer journey
journey

Camera
Camera journals
journals

Extreme
Extreme user
user interviews
interviews

Storytelling
Storytelling

Unfocused
Unfocused groups
groups
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Mechanical Devices

Galvanometers

Tachistoscope

Eye cameras

Audiometers

GPS
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Sampling Plan

• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?

• Sample size: How many people should be
surveyed?
• Sampling procedure: How should the
respondents be chosen?

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Types of Samples

Probability Nonprobability
• Simple random • Convenience
• Stratified random • Judgment
• Cluster • Quota

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Contact Methods

Mail Questionnaire

Telephone
Interview

Personal
Interview

Online
Interview
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Characteristics of Good
Marketing Research

9 Scientific method
9 Research creativity
9 Multiple methods
9 Interdependence
9 Value and cost of information
9 Healthy skepticism
9 Ethical marketing

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Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics
External Internal
• Awareness • Awareness of goals
• Market share • Commitment to goals
• Relative price • Active support
• Number of complaints • Resource adequacy
• Customer satisfaction • Staffing levels
• Distribution • Desire to learn
• Total number of • Willingness to change
customers • Freedom to fail
• Loyalty • Autonomy
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Table 4.5 Sample Customer-
Performance Scorecard Measures
• % of new customers to average #
• % of lost customers to average #
• % of win-back customers to average #
• % of customers in various levels of satisfaction
• % of customers who would repurchase
• % of target market members with brand recall
• % of customers who say brand is most preferred

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Tools to Measure Marketing Plan
Performance

Sales Market Share

Analysis Analysis

Expense-
Financial
to-Sales
Analysis
Analysis

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Sales Analysis

Sales- Micro-
Variance Sales
Analysis Analysis

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Market Share Analysis

• Overall market share

• Served market share
• Relative market share

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Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model

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Figure 4.3 Financial Model of
Return on Net Worth

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Marketing-Profitability Analysis

Step 1: Identifying Functional Expenses

Step 2: Assigning Functional Expenses to

Marketing Entities

Step 3: Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statement

for each Marketing Entity

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Table 4.6
Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement

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Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into
Functional Expenses

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Table 4.8 Bases for Allocating Functional
Expenses to Channels

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Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements
for Channels

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Distinguishing Types of Costs

Traceable Nontraceable
Direct
common common

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Gladware uses
marketing-mix
modeling to test
advertising
effectiveness

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The Measures of Market Demand

Potential Available
Market Market

Target Penetrated
Market Market

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Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of
Demand Measurement

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Figure 4.5
Market Demand Functions

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Figure 4.5
Market Demand Functions

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Product Penetration Percentage

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Estimating Current Demand

• Total market potential

• Area market potential
– Market buildup method
– Multiple-factor index method
• Brand development index

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Table 4.10 Calculating
Brand Development Index

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Estimating Future Demand

• Survey of Buyers’ Intentions

• Composite of Sales Force Opinions
• Expert Opinion
• Past-Sales Analysis
• Market-Test Method

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Purchase Probability Scale
Do you intend to buy an automobile within
the next 6 months?
0.00 No
0.20 Slight possibility
0.40 Fair possibility
0.60 Good possibility
0.80 High possibility
1.00 Certain
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Marketing Debate

9 What is the best type of marketing

research?

Take a position:
1. Marketing research should be
quantitative.
2. Marketing research should be
qualitative.
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Marketing Discussion

When was the last time you

participated in a survey? How helpful
do you think was the information
you provided? Could the research
have been done differently?

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