Proceedings of The Twelfth (2002) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference

Kitakyushu, Japan, May 26 –31, 2002

Copyright © 2002 by The International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
ISBN 1-880653-58-3 (Set); ISSN 1098-6189 (Set)

Method to Estimate Ship Longitudinal Ultimate Strength

and Its Structural Reliability Using a Numerical Database
Koji Masaoka and Hiroo Okada
Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University
Sakai, Osaka, Japan

ABSTRACT In this paper, a database is used instead of the simplified equations.

In this paper, we have developed a numerical method for estimating a
ship's ultimate longitudinal strength, and have discussed its applications.
We calculated stress-strain relations of structural elements and stored
them in a computer as a numerical database. These stress-strain
relations are fairly accurate. Our developed Smith's method program
uses this numerical database for the non-linear behavior of each
structural unit, and estimates accurate non-linear behaviors of ship
longitudinal strength. This numerical method can be applied to
reliability analysis.
KEY WORDS: Ultimate Longitudinal Bending Moment; Non-linear
Finite Element Method; Reliability Analysis; Smith’s Method;
Database; Monte Carlo Simulation; Sensitivity Analysis.
INTRODUCTION
Longitudinal strength is one of the most important structural aspects of
ship strength. Longitudinal ultimate strength is also important and has
been studied by many researchers (Yao and Nikolov, 1991; Yao and
Nikolov, 1992; Rutherford and Caldwell, 1990).
Thin-walled structures such as ships and offshore structures have many
structural units that may be collapsed. Both geometrical non-linearity
such as buckling and material non-linearity such as plasticity have to be
considered to investigate the collapse behaviors of thin-walled
structures. The only way to calculate accurately the collapse behaviors
is the non-linear finite element method. However, direct application of
the non-linear finite element method to the calculations of these
structures is difficult, even when using a modern high-performance
computer.
Many researchers have developed simplified equations for the collapse
behavior of structural units, and the ultimate longitudinal strength is
calculated by using these simplified equations. However, simplified
equations are sometimes inaccurate.
Large-deflection and elastic-plastic behaviors of ship panels are
calculated by a non-linear finite element method. The database of
collapse behaviors is generated from these finite element results. By
using the database the ultimate strength of the hull girders can be
accurately calculated in a short computation time.
The ultimate strength state necessarily occurs after an initial failure of a
structure. This means that knowledge of the ultimate strength of the
structure is not important if we think that initial failures of structures
are the finally utilizable stages of the structural strength. However,
there are always some possibilities that ships are under ultimate load
conditions, and this ultimate state is much serious than the initial
failures of the structure.
Probabilistic approach is a reasonable method to consider both the
initial failures and the ultimate strengths of the structures. The ultimate
strength state, which is a low possibility but a serious event, should be
investigated by the probabilistic approach and the reliability analysis.
The ultimate strength of hull girders may become one of the design
parameters by the structural reliability analysis.
The reliability evaluation for the ultimate strength of hull girders is
performed by using the system developed in this study.
CALCULATION OF SHIP LONGITUDINAL BENDING
BEHAVIOR
First, the fundamental theories to calculate longitudinal bending
behaviors of ship hull girders are explained as below:
Fundamental Equations to Obtain the Longitudinal Bending
Behavior
Since there is no longitudinal axial force N in a hull girder, Eq. (1) is
derived.
n
N = ∑ σ i Ai = 0 (1)
i =1
where n is the number of panel elements in the considered cross

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section. σ i is the value of longitudinal stress in the i -th structural accurate, the ultimate strength of hull girders derived from the Smith’s
element. Ai is the cross sectional area of the element. method is also accurate. The Smith’s method is used in this study for
the calculation of the ship longitudinal ultimate strength.

Longitudinal bending moment M can be derived from Eq. (2). Data Base Construction Using the Finite Element Method
n The collapse behaviors of rectangular plates have to be accurately
M = ∑ σ i Ai yi (2) known for the calculation of the ship longitudinal ultimate strength. In
i =1 this calculation, the most important information of the collapse
where y i is the vertical coordinate of the i -th structural element. behaviors of the rectangular plates is the load-deflection curves.
Therefore, first, we have to make load-displacement curves of the
The stress of the structural element depends on the strain of the rectangular plates by using a non-linear finite element analysis. A
structural element as expressed by Eq. (3). numerical database is generated from these load-displacement relations.
σ i = σ i (ε i ) (3)
By using this method, the non-linear finite element analysis, which is
Eq. (4) is the relationship among the strain of the plates, longitudinal always a time-consuming process, is never necessary in the process of
bending curvatures φ in the cross section, and the location of the the Smith’s method. This proposed method using the database from a
non-linear finite element analysis can accurately get the ultimate
neutral axis y 0 of the cross section. strength of the ship hull girders with short computation time.
ε i = φ ( yi − y0 ) (4)
Table 1 shows the parameters related to compressive behaviors of
The relation between the longitudinal bending curvature φ and the rectangular plates as ship longitudinal structural members. There are
many parameters to express the collapse behaviors of rectangular
longitudinal bending moment M is obtained from equations (2), (3), plates. It is difficult to make a database of collapse behaviors for typical
and (4) under the condition of Eq. (1). The shifting location of the dimensions of ship panels by considering all parameters in Table 1.
neutral axis y 0 in Eq. (4) is also calculated in this process.
Table 1: Influential parameters for compressive strength of a
Accurate stress-strain relationships of rectangular panels in Eq. (3) are rectangular plate
important when the ultimate strength of hull girders is calculated. E Young's modulus
Smith’s method is used in this study to get an accurate magnitude of the Material ν Poisson's ratio
ultimate strength. Rigid-plastic analysis and elastic-plastic analysis, Properties
which are simple ways and can give rough figures of the ultimate σY Yield stress
strength, are mentioned below, as well as the Smith’s method. H Strain hardening
a Length
(1) Rigid-Plastic Analysis Dimensions b Breadth
Rigid-plastic method can be used in order to get a upper bound solution Thickness
t
of the ultimate strength of hull girders. The rigid-plastic stress-strain
Construction w0 Initial deflection
relationship expressed by Eq. (5) is assumed for each plate member,
Parameters
and a longitudinal bending moment is calculated by using Eqs. (1) – σr Welding residual stress
(4). Structural Boundary Condition
−σ Y , (ε i < 0) Configuration
σi =  (5)
 σ Y , (0 < ε i )
Table 2: Dominant parameters for compressive strength of a
where σ Y is yield stress.
rectangular plate
Aspect ratio a/b
(2) Elastic-Plastic Analysis Slenderness ratio
By using Eq. (6), a perfect elastic-plastic panel model without buckling λ = b / t σY / E
effect can apply to the calculation of progressive collapse behaviors of Initial imperfection w0 , σ r
ship longitudinal bending.
Boundary condition Simply supported edges
−σ Y , (ε i < −ε Y )

σ i =  Eε i , (−ε Y < ε i < ε Y ) (6)
σ , (ε Y < ε i ) Non-dimensional parameters in Table 2 are made by arranging the
 Y parameters in Table 1. However, the parameters in Table 2 are also too
The ultimate strength obtained from the elastic-plastic analysis is equal
many to generate a database. So then important parameters will be
to that from the rigid-plastic analysis, because the reduction of load
selected from the following considerations.
carrying capacity due to compressive collapse of plates is not
introduced in the elastic-plastic analysis.
For rectangular panels whose aspect ratio a / b is greater than 1, the
(3) Smith's Method aspect ratio a / b is not so important to parameters for the ship
To improve the elastic-plastic analysis expressed by Eq. (6) and to longitudinal ultimate strength.
obtain good accuracy of the ship longitudinal ultimate strength, the
reduction of the load carrying capacity after ultimate strength of plates Fig. 1 shows the compressive collapse behaviors of square plates with
has to be considered for Eq. (3). This method is called the Smith’s various initial deflections. From this figure, we can find the significant
method (Smith, 1977). If the compressive behaviors of plates are differences of the ultimate strength between square plates with various
initial deflections. The impact of initial deflection is important to

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predict the critical load of a single plate. However, the collapsing of a
single plate does not mean the ultimate strength of ship hull girders. In
order to predict the ultimate strength of the ship hull girders, the post
ultimate behaviors of critical structural members are also important.
There are almost no differences in the post ultimate strength between
the curves in Fig. 1. Therefore, we can say that the impact of the initial
deflection of rectangular panels is not so important for the accurate
prediction of the ultimate strength of the hull girders.
RESULTS OF CALCULATION OF THE COLLAPSE
BEHAVIORS UNDER LONGITUDINAL BENDING
The magnitude of the ultimate strength of hull girders is calculated
using the Smith’s method mentioned above. Analyzed ships are a single
hull tanker, a bulk carrier, a double hull VLCC, and a container ship.
Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6 are cross sections of the single hull tanker, the
bulk carrier, and the double hull VLCC, and the container ship,
respectively. Figures 7, 8, 9, and 10 show the collapse behaviors of the
ships.

Fig. 1: Collapse behaviors of rectangular plates with initial deflection

Fig. 3: Cross section of a single hull tanker

Fig. 2: Load displacement curves of rectangular plates whose

slenderness ratios are λ =1.5, 2.0, 2.5

From these considerations, the important parameter of the rectangular

plate to make the database for the Smith’s method is only a slenderness
ratio λ (= b / t σ Y / E ). Fig. 2 shows the load-displacement curves of
λ =1.5, 2.0, and 2.5 generated by the non-linear finite element method.
A simply supported boundary condition is assumed for edges of Fig. 4: Cross section of a bulk carrier
rectangular plates. The database is made for only square plates
( a / b = 1 ), and it is also used for rectangular plates ( a / b > 1 ). The
assumed initial deflection is w0 / t = 0.1 in this study.

Load-displacement curves for various slenderness ratios λ are stored

in the database. This database is used for the calculation of collapse
behaviors in the Smith’s method. The accuracy of load-displacement
relations of rectangular plates by the finite element method is kept even
in the Smith’s method. These load-displacement curves are used for
unstiffened plates and stiffener webs. Rod elements considering elastic-
plastic behaviors are used for stiffener flanges. The load-displacement
curves of unstiffened plates stored in the database and the load-
displacement curves of elastic-plastic rod elements not considered
geometrically non-linearity are used in the Smith’s method.

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Fig. 5: Cross section of a double hull VLCC
Fig. 6: Cross section of a container ship
Fig. 7: Bending moment-curvature curves of a single hull tanker
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Fig. 8: Bending moment-curvature curves of a bulk carrier
Fig. 9: Bending moment-curvature curves of a double hull VLCC
Fig. 10: Bending moment-curvature curves of a container ship
The solutions from the rigid-plastic analysis are upper bound solutions.
Load-displacement curves from the elastic plastic analysis are not
considering buckling of the plates' approaches to the curves of the
rigid-plastic analysis. In other words, the accurate ultimate strength of
hull girders cannot be obtained from the rigid-plastic analysis or the
elastic-plastic analysis
In general, the ultimate strength of a hull girder under the sagging
condition is not equal to the ultimate strength under the hogging
condition because of the vertically unsymmetrical cross section of
ships. For example, the ultimate strength of the double hull VLCC and
a bulk carrier under the hogging condition are greater than the ultimate
strength under the sagging condition (Figs. 8 and 9). On the other hand,
the ultimate strength under the sagging condition of a container ship is
higher than that of the hogging condition (Fig. 10).
Table 4: Statistical values of ultimate longitudinal bending moment of
Rutherford and Caldwell were estimated the ultimate strength under the single hull tanker by Monte Carlo simulation
hogging condition of the single hull tanker shown in Fig. 3. The Hogging
estimated value is 1.831 × 1012[kgfmm] (17,940[MNm]). The value Mean 2.258 × 1012[kgfmm]
calculated in this study 2.245 × 1012[kgfmm], which is much larger than S.D. 7.062 × 1010[kgfmm]
Rutherform and Caldwell result. We calculated the longitudinal C.O.V. 0.0313
ultimate strength under the no corrosion and higher yield stresses than
Sagging
the guaranteed minimum yield stress. These calculating conditions give
the higher value than the estimated value by Rutherford and Caldwell. Mean 2.395 × 1012[kgfmm]
S.D. 6.426 × 1010[kgfmm]
STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ULTIMATE C.O.V. 0.0268
STRENGTH OF HULL GIRDERS
Table 5: Statistical values of ultimate longitudinal bending moment of
Statistical characteristics of the ultimate strength of hull girders are the single hull tanker by sensitivity analysis
determined by the Smith’s method, using the database in this section. Hogging
Mean 2.245 × 1012[kgfmm]
7.411 × 1010[kgfmm]
Statistical characteristics of the longitudinal ultimate strength of the S.D.
single hull tanker shown in Fig. 3 are investigated. Yield stress σ Y is
C.O.V. 0.0330
treated as a probabilistic variable. Table 3 shows the statistical Sagging
characteristics of the yield stress of longitudinal structural members.
Mean 2.394 × 1012[kgfmm]
The single hull tanker considered in this study consists of 23 types of S.D. 6.727 × 1010[kgfmm]
steels in its midship section. Steel types are mild steel or high tensile C.O.V. 0.0281
steel and its thicknesses are from 11.5mm to 33mm. Therefore, twenty-
three independent probabilistic variables for yield stress σ Y
corresponding to steel types are considered in this study. Statistical Sensitivity Analysis
characteristics are investigated by the Monte Carlo simulation and the Statistical characteristics can be also investigated by the sensitivity
sensitivity analysis. analysis. Standard deviation of the ultimate strength M US .D. is
derived from Eq. (7).
Table 3: Probabilistic variables of yield stresses of panels
Yield Stress (MS) m ∂M U
M US .D. = ∑ ( σ YiS.D. ) 2 (7)
Mean 28.0[kgf/mm2] i =1 ∂σ Yi
S.D. 2.24[kgf/mm2] where m is the number of steel types and σ YiS.D. is the standard
C.O.V. 0.08
deviation of the yield stress. ∂M U / ∂σ Yi is obtained by numerical
Yield Stress (HT)
Mean 37.0[kgf/mm2] derivation. The following equation (8) is used for the numerical
derivation.
S.D. 2.96[kgf/mm2]
∂M U M (σ ) − M U (σ Yi2 )
C.O.V. 0.08 = U Yi1 (8)
∂σ Yi σ Yi1 − σ Yi2
Monte Carlo Simulation σ Yi1 = 1.1σ Yi , σ Yi2 = 0.9σ Yi
At first, the standard deviation of the ultimate strength is calculated The magnitude of (∂M U / ∂σ Yi )σ YiS.D. indicates the sensitivity of
from the Monte Carlo simulation by using normally distributed random
numbers for the probabilistic variables of yield stress corresponding to σ Yi on the ultimate strength M U . Table 5 shows the results of the
steel types. Mean value and standard deviation are calculated from 100 sensitivity analysis.
times of simulations in this study. Table 4 shows the results calculated
by the Monte Carlo simulation. One hundred trials by Monte Carlo Comparison Between the Monte Carlo Simulation and the
simulation may not get accurate statistical values. However, the values Sensitivity Analysis
seem have the accuracy of at least 2 digits by 100 trials of the Monte Mean values and standard deviations obtained from the Monte Carlo
Carlo simulation. simulation (Table 4) and the sensitivity analysis (Table 5) are similar to
each other. From these tables, it is found that the C.O.V. (coefficient of
variation) of the ultimate strength is nearly 3% when the C.O.V. of the
yield stress is 8%. In other words, the variation of the ultimate strength
is not so big as the variation of the yield stress.

Monte Carlo simulation is easy to calculate, however, it needs many

trials to get accurate solutions. The sensitivity analysis can investigate
the sensitivity of each statistical parameter. Numerical derivations to
get the sensitivity in the sensitivity analysis sometimes involve some
numerical errors due to local distortions of the curves of the ultimate
strength.

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EVALUATION OF STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY ON THE
LONGITUDINAL ULTIMATE STRENGTH
Structural reliability on the longitudinal ultimate strength is calculated
by using the statistical characteristics mentioned in the previous
section. Wave induced bending moment is introduced as a statistical
variable. Table 6 shows the statistical values of wave induced bending
moment used in this study.
Reliability index β on the longitudinal ultimate strength is calculated
from Eq. (9).
M − M wmean
β = Umean (9)
M2 +M2
US .D. wS .D.
where M Umean is the mean value of the longitudinal ultimate
moment, M US .D. is the standard deviation of the longitudinal ultimate
moment, M wmean is the mean value of the maximum bending
moment in irregular waves. M w is the sum of still water bending
moment and wave induced bending moment. M wS .D. is the standard
deviation of the maximum bending moment in irregular waves. Normal
distribution is assumed for the maximum bending moment in irregular
waves M w .
Table 7 shows reliability indexes β under the hogging and sagging
conditions calculated from the Monte Carlo simulation and the
sensitivity analysis. The magnitude of the reliability index β under the
sagging condition is higher than the hogging condition in the case of
the single hull tanker. These values are calculated for a newly built
ship. The values of reliability index shown in Table 7 decreases for
aged ships due to corrosions, distortions, and cracks.
Table 6: Probabilistic variables of wave induced bending moment
Wave induced bending moment
Mean 1.373 × 1012[kgfmm]
S.D. 8.92 × 1010[kgfmm]
C.O.V. 0.0650
CONCLUSION
In this study, the system to evaluate the structural reliability of the
longitudinal ultimate strength of ships is developed. The following
results are obtained.
1. The database of the compressive behaviors of panels is generated by
the non-linear finite element method. The Smith's method using the
database to analyze the ultimate strength of hull girders is developed.
2. Statistical characteristics of the ultimate strength of ship hull girders
are investigated by the Monte Carlo simulation and the sensitivity
analysis. From these analyses, the standard deviation of the ultimate
strength of ship hull girders is less than that of the yield stress of the
steel as the structural members of the hull girders.
3. A reliability analysis of the ultimate strength of the hull girders is
investigated by considering the probabilistic variables of the ultimate
strength of the hull girders and the wave induced bending moment.
REFERENCES
Yao, T. and Nikolov, P. I. (1991): “Progressive Collapse Analysis of a
Ship's Hull under Longitudinal Bending (1st report)”, Journal of The
Society of Naval Architects of Japan, Vol. 170, pp449-461.
Yao, T. and Nikolov, P. I. (1992): “Progressive Collapse Analysis of a
Ship's Hull under Longitudinal Bending (2nd report)”, Journal of
The Society of Naval Architects of Japan, Vol. 172, pp437-446.
Rutherford, S.E. and Caldwell, J.B. (1990): “Ultimate Longitudinal
Strength of Ships: A Case Study”, SNAME Transactions, Vol. 98,
pp441-471.
Smith, C.S. (1977): “Influence of local compressive failure on ultimate
longitudinal strength of a ship's hull”, PRADS-International
Symposium on Practical Design in Shipbuilding, Tokyo, pp.73-79.
Ueda, Y., Masaoka, K., and Okada, H. (1996): “Ultimate Strength
Analysis of Thin Plated Structures Using Eigen-functions (The 3rd
Report) Application to Reliability Analysis”, Journal of the Society
of Naval Architects of Japan, Vol. 179, pp369-378 (in Japanese).

Table 7: Reliability index for ultimate longitudinal bending moment of

the single hull tanker
β Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Simulation Analysis
Hogging 7.8 7.5
Sagging 9.3 9.1

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