Planning for Decision Making

Decision making without planning is fairly

Decision Making common

It is called crisis management

Planning allows decisions to be made in a
much more comfortable and intelligent
way

Planning even makes decisions easier by
providing guidelines and goals for the
decision

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INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS

FRAMING THE PROBLEM –

Managing
KEY TIPS
• Team Leadership
• Client • Vision • Start with structure, not data
• Self • Inspiration
• Delegation
• Break the problem into “MECE” parts (using issue trees)
Business Need Implementation
• Form a sound hypothesis as to the answer
• Competitive • Dedication
• Organizational Problem Intuition Solution • Reaction
• Financial • Completion • Identify what conditions are necessary and sufficient to
• Operational • Iteration
Data prove the hypothesis (using hypothesis trees)

Analyzing Presenting
• Framing • Structure
• Designing • Buy-in
• Gathering
• Interpreting
MECE: Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive
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INNOVATIVE INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS

FRAMING THE PROBLEM – ISSUE ISSUE TREES VS. HYPOTHESIS

TREE ASSIGNMENT TREES

• Issue trees identify all potential ideas

• Issue trees ask “How” we could meet a desired outcome

Problem: How can I have more money at the end of each • Issue trees are excellent for organizing ideas in a “MECE” manner
month without incurring debt?
• Complete issue trees uncover all potential ideas

• Hypothesis trees focus and build up an argument or conclusion

• Hypothesis trees ask “Why” we believe something to be true

• Hypothesis trees are excellent for narrowing down investigation to essentials

• Complete hypothesis trees build up a complete argument

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INNOVATIVE
• Hypothesis trees focus on the “so what” of any data that is presented
INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS

1
 FRAMING THE PROBLEM – FRAMING THE PROBLEM –
HYPOTHESIS TREE EXAMPLE HYPOTHESIS TREE EXAMPLE

Hypothesis: We can increase the profitability of the Acme

We can increase
Widget Company through a streamlined thrum-mat
production process for thrum-mats. profitability with
the new production
process.

Hypothesis
From what you already know, what do you
think is causing the problem?
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INNOVATIVE INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS

FRAMING THE PROBLEM – FRAMING THE PROBLEM –

HYPOTHESIS TREE EXAMPLE HYPOTHESIS TREE EXAMPLE
Why? Why? Why?

It will reduce our It will reduce our

costs. costs.

The process does

not require new
facilities.
We can increase We can increase
Our organization Our organization
thrum-mat thrum-mat
can implement the can implement the
profitability with profitability with
necessary changes. necessary changes.
the new production the new production
process. process. The process does
not require new
skills.

We can maintain We can maintain

product quality product quality
while implementing while implementing
the process. 9 the process. 10
INNOVATIVE INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS

FRAMING THE PROBLEM – HYPOTHESIS DESIGNING THE ANALYSIS – KEY

TREE ASSIGNMENT TIPS
• Lay out the issues in a written workplan by priority

• Identify the essential analyses necessary to draw conclusions on

each issue
Hypothesis: The best way for me to have more money at the
end of the month is to spend less through
• Disregard analyses that are “interesting” but not essential to
comparison shopping.
prove/disprove the hypothesis

• Avoid time-consuming analyses designed for more precision

than necessary

• Begin each analysis with the end (specific end products and
timing) in mind
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INNOVATIVE INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS

2
 GATHERING THE DATA – KEY INTERPRETING THE RESULTS –
TIPS KEY TIPS

• Use the workplan to focus the search • Look for the 80/20 opportunities

• Search the web and other public sources for essential facts • Always ask, “what’s the so what?”

• Identify and interview experts to uncover hard-to-find • Perform sanity checks

facts and deeper insights
• Draw a chart for each insight
• Conduct primary research only if unavoidable
• Don’t make the facts fit your hypothesis

• Pull together “the story”

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INNOVATIVE INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS

ISSUE TREE – SAVING MONEY HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN – TREE SAVING MONEY

Why? Why? Why? Which?
How? How? How? How?
Key spending Hypermarkets
categories have Price Club
Inherit
competition in Home Depot
Legally ... new formats
Receive a Savings Auto mall
windfall Win lottery
are feasible New formats offer
Illegally Overtime
Increase Receive more Rs. same quality at
income from investments Work more Comparison lower price
hours Additional job shopping is
Receive more an interesting
How can I have Rs. from work Opportunity cost of
Make more Higher The best way for opportunity additional time
more money per hour job level me to have more Additional taken up by comparison
at the end of each
month without money at the end of investments shopping
Pay less for Better paid
incurring a debt? Buy lower the month is to do not wipe
same amount industry
quality items spend less through out savings
of items Savings in $
comparison
Reduce Shop around shopping Changing
expenses for specials
my lifestyle To compensate for demanding workload, I need to invest
Buy less is not an in weekly visits to the spa and the opera
• Food
• Clothing option
My profession does not allow me to wear lower
• Utensils quality clothes
• Entertainment
• Travel To balance the junk food I eat during the week, I need at
• Other 15
least one three-course meal on the weekend
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INNOVATIVE INNOVATIVE
SOLUTIONS SOLUTIONS