Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Life-cycle

Assessment based on Multivariate Regression

Analysis*
Liming Wang1, Fangyi Li1*, Jianfeng Li1, Xiaowei Wang1,2
1. School of Mechanical Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061,China
2. School of Electromechanical Engineering, Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan
250101, China.
ABSTRACT
Life-cycle Assessment is an iterative procedure where the data to be included should be
collected and validated repeatedly to achieve more accurate environment impacts.
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are generally recommended to find out the key
issues for further iterative procedure in a subsequent more detailed LCI. This paper is
concerned with the iterative data, using multivariate regression analysis, to find the
functional relationship between impact parameters and assessment results. The study
about the contribution of parameters to the assessment results in regression analysis
was carried out to identify the key sensitive parameters, Next it discussed the
propagation of uncertainties through the former founded function so as to get how the
impact parameters influence the assessment results. The level of uncertainty can be
derived from the function by means of the partial derivatives. From these analyses, it
offered a set of guidelines to improve the data quality. Finally, an example was given to
illustrate the methodology.
Key words: Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis; LCA; Multivariate Regression
Analysis

1. Introduction
Life-cycle assessment is widely used as a technique to evaluate the environmental
influences associated with products, processes, or activities based on life cycle thinking.
When an LCA project is carried out, it needs to collect the input data and output data in
all the product life. Generally it was time-consuming. In most cases it is recommended
to start simple and carry out a rough calculation in the first instance. Details can then be
added and data can be revised or supplemented at a later stage. Therefore, it is
important to identify the key data which should be collected in detail in the following
steps. However, the results of LCA contain many uncertain sources that bring on
inaccurate judgement. In order to assess the quality and meaningfulness of the LCA
results, the influence of uncertainty must be checked and controlled by intensive
sensitivity analysis [2,6,7,8].

2. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

2.1 Uncertainty in LCA project
2.1.1 Data Uncertainty
In the LCI process, we need to measure a great deal of data such as emission,
consumption of material and so on, which will ineluctably bring on measurement error
that result in the uncertainty of input factors. The data from the LCA database are
processed by statistic method, and this will relate to the data precision or probability
distribution problems. In addition, because of advancement of technology or the change
of environment, some of the data maybe out of date. If those data are still used in the
inventory, inaccurate result maybe presented in the finial reports.
2.1.2 Assessment Model Uncertainty
It is divided into two aspects: one is the product life cycle model (assumptions on life
span, distribution of sales, scenario definition, end of life span, degree of refurbishment
etc.) which is changing along with the variety of the system boundary. The unclear life
model will result in the uncertain data for inputs, outputs and impacts on the working
environment. The other is the assessment method, such as the equivalency factors,
normalization references and weighting factors that will determine the resulting
uncertainty in the final assessment.
Furthermore, there are still some additional data uncertainties coming from the lack of
experience of LCA practitioners. All of those will reduce the data quality and give
mistake decision. Therefore, much attention should be paid to the uncertain factors, and
Sensitivity Analysis (SA) provides an efficient way to solve the problem. In a LCA project
they are both recommended in ISO14043 and SETAC’s ‘Code of practice’ [4].
2.2 Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis (SA) is defined as systematic procedures for estimating the effects
of the choices made regarding methods and data on the outcome of a study
(ISO14044-2006[5]). SA is usually used to deal with uncertain data and identify key
issues for further analysis. Typically, in a sensitivity analysis, each model parameter is
varied in turn by a small amount within the region of a best estimate or standard case [5].
If a small relative change in the model parameter can have a strong influence on the
results, then, we consider it as a sensitive parameter which should be managed
preferentially.
Many methods and tools are available for Sensitivity Analysis. In this article, they are
classified as 3 types:
1. Traditional Methods
Traditionally, LCA practitioners produce a group of scenarios by a range of
parameters variation. For each scenario it only changes one parameter, and then
we will get the sensitive parameter by calculating the result variation range. Some
charts such as radar chart, tornado diagram and so on, are also very useful
graphical tools to illuminate the sensitivity or influence of input parameters on the
overall variability of the LCA model. However, those methods are not well adapted
to evaluating complex LCA models with large numbers of impact parameters.
2. Statistical Methods
This method relies on the calculation of the probability of input parameters to
determine the mean and standard deviation of the output. It usually uses formula to
get the result through an estimate of the individual variable’s mean or standard
deviation. Generally ‘σ(X)/∆X’ are used to express the ‘relative sensitivity’, which tell
 us how important the precision in the estimation of X is available[3], and σ(X) means
the standard deviation of X.
3. Sampling Methods
Sampling methods, usually called Monte Carlo methods, are class of computational
algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to model some sort of a process
using probability distributions. The input parameters will be sampled according to
the probability distribution and then produce a large number of scenarios. Through
simulating the various sampling strategies, the effect of multiple uncertainties
caused by the input parameters on cumulative results can be figured out.

3. Multivariate Regression Analysis in LCA Model

Multivariate regression analysis is to learn more about the relationship between several
independent or predictor variables and a dependent or criterion variable. The regression
method is very widely applied in the social and natural sciences research. It can be
used to predicate or control how one of the variables change according to the other
variables change, and it also can give the precision of the predication. Saltelli and
Marivoet had developed a method of sensitivity analysis using multivariate regression
analysis in 1990[1].
For a linear regression model, if we only care for the main effects of each parameter, it
can be given:

(1)
Where βi is regression coefficient, Xi is the input parameters and e is the error. The
uncertainty of Y can be expressed based Eq.(1):

(2)
Standardized regression coefficient in Eq. (3) and sum of squares of partial regression
are often used to describe the relative importance and sensitivity of independent
variables in multivariate regression analysis. The bigger the statistic value, the more
sensitive the factor is.

(3)
where σ() means the estimate of standard deviation.
Stepwise regression is one of several computer-based iterative variable-selection
procedures which can give the best regression function like Eq. (1) from a number of
possible models. At each step we first determine whether any of the factors (already
included in the model) can be removed. The input factors will be analyzed one by one.
Finally, the more important and sensitive ones are included. Although the procedures
are complex, it is easy to be made with the existing statistic software such as SPSS.
Therefore, Multivariate regression method can be used to analyse the sensitivities and
uncertainties of LCA Model parameters. The procedure can be summarized in 4 steps:
1. Specify the uncertain input parameters in LCA process and get the probability
distribution of those parameters.
2. Select values for the parameters randomly from the probability distribution to
produce a group of scenarios and calculate the impact results.
3. Get the function relation between the results and the input parameters by
stepwise regression analysis, all the statistic results should be analysed by T-
significance or F-significance level test.
4. The included parameters after stepwise regression analysis will be regard as
important and sensitive. The sums of squares of partial regression standard and
regression coefficients are two important indexes to the contribution of
uncertainty of the parameters.
The multivariate regression method does not require many data (unlike Monte Carlo
analysis), and it is easy to operate with the mathematic software. Moreover, it can be
used to discuss the propagation of uncertainties through the founded function to predict
how the impact parameters influence the assessment results.

4. A simple case
A simple example analysis of a motor has been described to illustrate the use of
multivariate regression in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of LCA project. It defines a
process tree for the life cycle of a motor is illustrated in Fig.1.The purpose of the
calculation is to establish priorities, and get the sensitive and uncertain parameters. The
functional unit is one motor with ten years life-span. A simplified model of a motor is
used in which only the parts production, spray-paint, the consumption of fuel in
assembly and transport and the electricity in the motor use are included. The amounts
of materials and the processing process are looked up and measured to make up of the
inventory. In this example, Eco-indicator99 method is used to get one single score for
the final result which will be easily operated in the regression analysis.

Figure 1: Example of a simplified process tree for the life cycle of a motor
Sixteen factors are selected as the uncertain influence parameters in Table 1. The
damage indicator as the final result is a dependent variable in the regression analysis.
Two points should be explained in this table:
 1. In energy factors it has two electricity factors. Electiricity1 is the consumption of
electricity in the motor production phase, Electiricity2 is in the use phase.
2. There are three weighting factors: W1 is the human heath weight, W2 is
ecosystem quality weight, and W3 is resources weight. Obviously, those factors
belong to the assessment model uncertain that was caused by assessment
method.
Besides, the range of uncertainty of all the factors was measured and listed in the table.
In order to have a simple data processing, the example builds on the assumption that all
the factors have uniform distribution.
Table 1 List of uncertain factors in the motor LCA process
Factor of the Model Symbol Factor Unit Range of
value Uncertainty
Material Steel X1 18.2 Kg ±10%
Aluminium X2 0.36 Kg ±5%
Copper X3 0.28 Kg ±5%
Water X4 1.02 ton ±10%
Cutting fluid X5 0.24 Kg ±5%
Paint X6 0.05 Kg ±10%
Energy Electricity1 X7 7.48 Kw ±5%
Electricity2 X8 770 Kw ±15%
Fuel X9 2.3 Kg ±5%
Waste Dust of Aluminium X10 0.7 mg/m3 ±6%
Dust of cast iron X11 5 mg/m3 ±8%
Noise X12 85 DB ±10%
Life-span X13 10 Year ±20%
Weighting W1 X14 0.4 ±10%
factors W2` X15 0.4 ±10%
W3 X16 0.5 ±10%
The damage indicator Y 276.8 Unknown
In the following, a group of data for the factors from the uniform probability distribution
are generated easily using the software Excel ‘rand’ function. We take the first factor
steel coded X1 as an example: The X1’s data will be got by the formula
‘18.2+(rand()*3.64-1.82)’. After coping these formula n times in the Excel, a group data
will be produced. Actually, it is a computer simulation process. The simulation will be
run 100 times for each factor to produce enough data for the regression analysis.
A stepwise regression is made based on the above produced data using the statistic
software SPSS. Table 2 shows the final regression result. We also get the regression
equation with the significance level α=0.05:

(3)
And the coefficient of determination R2=0.982, F=722.525>Sig=3.973. All the statistic
information indicates that the regression model is significant.
Table 2 The stepwise regression result
Factors Unstandardized Standardized T Sig
coefficient coefficient
X1 0.995 0.031 1.990 0.050
X5 237.423 0.276 17.605 2.033
X8 0.333 0.223 14.305 7.073
X13 -31.666 -0.529 -34.247 5.959
X14 429.684 0.698 44.711 7.351
X15 72.549 0.044 2.788 1.452
Constant 63.009 1.996 0.007
There are seven factors are included in this model : X1, X5, X8, X13, X14, X15, and those
are regard as more sensitive factors than others. An order of sensitivity of those factors
can be given by comparing the standardized coefficient in Table 2 and the sum of
squares of partial regression in Table 3. It is obvious to get the sensitivity order:
X14>X13>X 5>X8>X15>X1.
Table 3 Sum of squares of partial regression of the coefficient
FactorsSum of squares of partial regressionContribution to the regression
X1 1743.2 0.1%
X15 7965.9 0.21%
X8 1196.9 4.65%
X5 23092.6 5.05%
X13 300785.2 30.21%
X14 529005.6 59.78%
In the regression result, X14, X15 are assessment method parameters, and they make up
of nearly of 60% of the contribution to the regression. Therefore, the assessment
method uncertainty will influence the assessment result seriously. X13 is also a more
important negative factor which means that increasing the life-span of the motor can
reduce the finial result. This is consistent with the known facts. The other sensitive
factors are the cutting fluid in the parts production, the consumption of electricity in use
phase and the consumption of steel. Therefore, much attention should be paid to those
factors in the following data collection.
Mathematicians have established a general formula to express the propagation of
uncertainties. We have got the functional relationship in Eq. (3), and the propagation
can be expressed by the absolute errors:

(4)
It is easy to use Eq. (4) calculate the estimate of the uncertainty of the final result, while
the input factors are changing.

5. Discussion
This paper has presented an optional method for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
in LCA project using multivariate regression analysis. It has been tested to be available
in the above case study. However, an important point to note is that, it’s better to select
the uncertain factors that are independent of each other. Otherwise, the collinearity
would happen, which may result in missing the sensitive factors. In the propagation of
uncertainties, we still have other choice with respect to the definition of uncertainty,
such as the variance and the standard deviation. Both of them can be deduced based
on the regression function in the same way as Eq. (2). Finally, this method is a
combination of statistic and sampling method, and it gives a sequence of more
important sensitive factors to guide the following data collection or the improvement of
product.

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