Essex County Tea Party Coalition

www.TeaPartyEC.com
sue@teapartyec.com
Individual Liberty. Limited Government. Lower Taxes.
ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LEGISLATIVE DISTRICTS

By Daniel Beckelman, Chair,

Essex County Tea Party Coalition Redistricting Committee
December, 2010
Copyright 2010 by Daniel Beckelman
Copyright Number: CLLJ6-E67SR-YVX2B
Introduction: The current legislative map overstates Democratic and left-of-center
representation in Northern New Jersey’s urban core including and surrounding the
state’s four largest cities: Newark, Jersey City, Paterson and Elizabeth. Under the
current map, Republicans only hold 3 out of 17 northeastern-based Senate seats and 6
out of 30 Assembly seats. Put in perspective, the remaining 24 Senate seats from the
central, southern, and western parts of the state favor the Republican Party with 13
Senators to 10. and 27 Assembly members to 23. Clearly the northern core has to been
drawn to cement Democratic majorities as the state’s population has moved South and
West into strong Republican and conservative areas such as Morris and Ocean County.
The reason I decided to concentrate on this area is a) I have resided or worked in every
county area I covered and b) it is the area that is causing the legislature to tilt toward the
Democratic Party. Republicans should have no problem redistricting growing
Northwestern New Jersey or the Shore.
The Democrats’ 2001 plan “unpacked” areas with high concentrations of racial
minority voters that have unflinchingly favored their parties candidates and melded them
with towns such as Belleville, Scotch Plains, Totowa and Clifton where Republicans are
either dominant or in a very competitive position. Instead of true elections, contests in
the gerrymandered 22nd, 28th, and 34th Districts became coronations for Democrats.
Interestingly in the 28th and 34th, two Caucasian Democratic warhorses were elected
late in the cycle to represent the white bases in the northern parts of their districts, but
the new representatives voted more like inner-city legislators than suburban voters
while diluting minority representation. In reality, the election of Tom Giblin and Ralph
Caputo was simply to appease an ongoing culture and factional war within the Essex
County Democratic Party.
The policy failures of a decade of left-of-center Democratic rule are clear and
obvious. Huge tax increases, too many concessions to public workers, and economic
stagnation. Even with Governor Christie, the hyper-partisan Democratic vote in both
houses of the legislature necessitated more pain fall on GOP strongholds than
Democratic bastions in order to balance the state’s awful budget scenario.
 The Republican Party should have more strongly contested certain districts
where they were electable under this map, primarily the 36th and 38th where white
ethnics dominate the voter rolls in a time when Republicans often win their votes.
However, the placement of swing and Republican towns in districts where they were
dwarfed by ironclad Democratic cities has hurt both the Republican Party and the state
as a whole.
As Tea Party members, we back fiscally conservative, pro-growth candidates.
Certainly most of the time we back Republicans, but it would also be nice if Democrats
do win that they face competitive general and primary races in districts where the social
welfare left does not hold power. Ralph Caputo could lose every vote in his hometown
of Belleville and neighboring Bloomfield over his left-of-center voting record and still win
on the basis of a vote in Newark and Irvington where the GOP is a non-factor in the
current 28th District. It would be nice to see some Democratic legislators have to move
to the center, particularly on economic and tax issues. In turn, Republicans would be
forced to be more consistently conservative. This in turn will mean pro-business, anti-
tax and anti-welfare policies which will truly end the lag in our state.
The new districts are designed to reflect North Jersey’s true political character.
The strong minority Democratic strongholds remain in the new 27th, 29th, 30th, 31st
and 35th districts, while the 33rd and 37th will almost certainly remain Democratic. The
32nd and 36th Districts will most likely go to Democrats but possibly of a more
conservative variety and also open the door to an anomalous Republican in a strong
year. The 38th District is a true toss-up, grouping working-and-middle class areas in
Bergen, Hudson and Essex County full of right-of center Democrats that often end up
on the right side of the ballot. The 21st, 28th, 34th, 39th and 40th will lean strongly
towards the GOP and provide a true northeastern New Jersey caucus to the Party.
Thus New Jerseyans may finally get a legislature that reflects the political character of
the state.

All the following districts comply with the requirements of being within 10% of the 2009
Estimates for the US Census as well as being contiguous communities:

District 40 (Franklin Lakes, Mahwah, Oakland, Midland Park, Ridgewood, Wyckoff,

Allendale, Glen Rock, Ramsey, Saddle River, Fair Lawn, Paramus, Saddle Brook,
Oradell, Rochelle Park): (Incumbents, Senator Bob Gordon D-Paramus,
Assemblywoman Connie Wagner, D-Paramus Assemblyman David Russo, R-
Ridgewood) Population: 217,886 RATING: LIKELY GOP Chris Christie took almost
57% of the two-party vote here, as only Fair Lawn supported Jon Corzine by an
unimpressive margin. Senator Gordon and Assemblywoman Wagner have been hyper-
partisan and no longer have a Democratic machine or a district to support them.
Democrats only hope here would be to nominate more conservative Democrat (and
formerly Republican) Fair Lawn Mayor Joseph Tedeschi as their candidate to replace
Gordon. Most likely, a team of Freeholder Robert Hermansen of Mahwah, Maura
DeNicola of Franklin Lakes, or John Driscoll of Paramus, with Fair Lawn Councilwoman
Jeanne Baratta, and a Ramsey or Paramus candidate could obliterate the Democrats.
David Russo is a longtime GOP incumbent,.
District 39: (Alpine, Closter, Creskill, Demarest, Dumont, Englewood Cliffs, Harrington
Park, Haworth, Hillsdale, Ho-Ho-Kus, Montvale, Northvale, Norwood, Park Ridge, New
Milford, River Edge, River Vale, Tenafly, Old Tappan, Washington Twp, Westwood,
Woodcliff Lake, Bergenfield, Waldwick, Emerson, Rockleigh): (Incumbents, Senator
Gerald Cardinale, R-Demarest Assemblymembers Robert Schroeder and Charlotte
Vandervalk, R-Washington and Westwood). Population: 223,717 RATING: LIKELY
GOP

The 39th has been, since the 1980’s, a reliably GOP district encompassing some of
Bergen County’s affluent Republican suburbs as well as a few swing towns nearer to
Route 4. Senator Cardinale has been in office for nearly 30 years, and Assemblywoman
Vandervalk is also long serving. Rising star Robert Schroeder fills the third seat. To
accomodate a new Republican 40th, the district moves further south to absorb
marginally Democratic Bergenfield, more Democratic but small Tenafly, and GOP-
leaning Englewood Cliffs. This also allows the 37th to take left-leaning “Condo
Communities” in SE Bergen. The district still remains a 54% Christie district, and in the
current state of affairs Democrats would not waste their money here. A deep GOP
bench of council-people and freeholders will sustain the district if Cardinale and
Vandervalk retire.

District 38: (BERGEN COUNTY: Carlstadt, East Rutherford, Rutherford, North Arlington,
Lyndhurst, Wood-Ridge, Hasbrouck Hts, Moonachie, South Hackensack ESSEX
COUNTY: Belleville, Bloomfield, Nutley. HUDSON COUNTY: Kearny) (Incumbent
Legislators Senator Paul Sarlo, D-Woodridge, Assemblyman Ralph Caputo, D-
Belleville) Population: 230,729 RATING: TOSS-UP

This district would feature a majority of Reagan Democrat constituents who might
register as Democrats on the books but easily vote Republican. Jon Corzine got 51% of
the two-party vote here but the margin of victory would have been reversed with better
targeting. Democrats Sarlo and Caputo would be forced to move right here, Caputo’s
record on the racetrack is strong, but any Trenton Democrat who served in the Corzine
era is ripe for attack. Christie’s recent stay of execution for the East Rutherford
racetrack scuttles a possible Democratic campaign issue. Democrats could add North
Arlington Mayor Peter Massa, Bergen Freeholder Bernadette McPherson or Kearny
Mayor Alberto Santos to their ticket. Right now there is sheer gridlock in trying to
replace departed popular Democratic Assemblyman Fred Scalera of Nutley. The
Republican Senate candidate would likely be former Assembly leader Paul DiGaetano,
but another Nutley or Bergen official could take that spot. There would be good choices
for Assembly from all three counties.

DISTRICT 37 (BERGEN COUNTY: Teaneck, Hackensack, Englewood, Bogota,

Cliffside Park, Fort Lee, Leonia, Maywood, Palisades Park, Ridgefield Park)
(Incumbents Senator Loretta Weinberg D-Teaneck, Assemblymembers Gordon
Johnson D-Englewood, Valerie Vanieri Huttle D-Englewood and Joan Voss D-Fort Lee)
Population: 227,719 RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
 The 37th would remain what its always been, an overwhelmingly liberal district. In fact,
Jon Corzine won more than two-thirds of the vote here!! The three hardcore Democratic mini-
cities of Bergen County (Hackensack, Englewood, and Teaneck) join left-leaning Fort Lee and
the Democratic machine town of Cliffside Park. A few other small communities with similar
values join into preserve the career of one of the worst legislative teams in New Jersey but
hopefully in a powerless minority, as much of the Democratic influence in surrounding districts
is now compacted here. Jilted Assemblyoman Joan Voss could prevail in a primary unifying
Hackensack, Fort Lee and Cliffside Park against Teaneck and Englewood.

DISTRICT 36: (Bergen County: Garfield, Lodi, Elmwood Park. Passaic County: Clifton and
Passaic) (Incumbent: Assemblyman Gary Schaer D-Passaic) Population: 227,931 RATING:
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
The City of Passaic has been an integral part of keeping the legislature in Democratic
hands. The City has cemented suburban Democratic senators occupying the Senate seat since
1997, and since 2005 two Democratic Assembly members. So rather than subject more
competitive towns to Passaic’s nearly 4-1 Democratic vote, Passaic is moved north to join
Clifton, which has been trending mostly Democratic, as well as three Democratic leaning
communities in Western Bergen County. With 57% of the votes here having gone to Corzine, it
is far less safe than other areas for Democrats but they are likely to win here. Most likely Schaer
would move up to the State Senate, while someone like Clifton-based Freeholder Bruce James
and a Bergen Democrat would win the other seats.

33rd District (Bergen County: Fairview, Edgewater, Little Ferry, Ridgefield. Hudson County:
North Bergen, Union City, West New York, Weehawaken and Guttenberg) (Incumbents: Senator
Brian Stack D-Union City, Senator Nicholas Sacco D-North Bergen, Assemblywoman Cardidad
Rodriguez D-West New York) Population: 230,968 RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC

With more people per square mile than almost anywhere on Earth, this North Hudson-SE
Bergen hybrid would create a battle between two local legends, North Bergen Mayor (And State
Senator) Nick Sacco and Union City Mayor (And State Senator) Brian Stack. Stack has been an
erstwhile Christie ally, while Sacco has battled Christie but voted conservative on social issues.
Best of all, voters in apopolectic West New York and Bergen County would decide a race where
Sacco and Stack likely get near universal votes in their home towns. This could get so crazy that
the primary loser here could run as a Republican or write-in in the fall! Assemblywoman
Cardidad Rodriguez is a Stack ally. Bergen might get an Assembly seat in the infighting, with
Mayor Mauro Raguseo of Little Ferry being the front runner for that.

32nd District: Hudson County: (Bayonne, Hoboken, Secaucus, Jersey City Ward E (Downtown),
Ward D (Heights/Hudson City), Parts of Ward C (Journal Square), and Ward A (Greenville):
(Incumbents: Assemblyman Jason O’Donnell D-Bayonne, Assemblyman Vincent Prieto D-
Secaucus, Assemblyman Ruben Ramos D-Hoboken) Population: 229,142 RATING: LIKELY
DEMOCRATIC

This district changes the traditional Hudson County alignent to allow new players into the
game while putting more like minded areas together. There is no incumbent Senator here which
would allow one of three younger Assemblypeople to get elected. The district also is more
politically moderate and fairly devoid of a social programs constituency than most previous
Hudson districts.

31st District: Hudson County: (Jersey City, All of Ward B (West Side), All of Ward F (Bergen-
Lafayette), Parts of Ward C (Journal Square), and Ward A (Greenville). Harrison, East Newark.
Essex County (Parts of East and South Ward of Newark) (Incumbents: Senator Sandra
Cunningham D-Jersey City, Assemblywoman Grace Spencer D-Newark, and Assemblywoman
Cleopatra Tucker D-Newark, Assemblywoman Joan Quigley D-Jersey City, Assemblyman
Albert Coutinho D-Newark, Assemblyman Charles Mainor D-Jersey City) Population: 228,337
RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC

This district will allow independent Democratic Senator Sandra Cunningham to retain her
seat with a large African-American vote while ensuring better representation for surrounding
areas. A huge Assembly primary would ensue which would substantially reduce the left-wing of
the Democratic caucus.

35th District: Passaic County (Paterson, Woodland Park, Haledon, Little Falls, Prospect Park).
Essex County (Montclair, Glen Ridge): Incumbents: Senator Nia Gill D-Montclair,
Assemblywoman Elease Evans D-Paterson, Assemblyman Tom Giblin D-Montclair):
Population: 227,942 RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
This district sacrifices only one GOP leaning town (Little Falls) and one swing town
(Woodland Park, formerly West Paterson), to merge two extremely problematic towns for
conservatives: Paterson and Montclair. Paterson has the typical big-city issues, but Montclair is
an extension of Greenwich Village liberalism. (This is a town where Dick Codey is considered a
raging conservative!) This allows Clifton, Totowa, North Haledon, and Hawthorne into better
districts.

34th District: Passaic County: (Bloomingdale, North Haledon, Pompton Lks, Ringwood,
Totowa, Wanaque, Wayne, West Milford, Hawthorne). Morris County(Riverdale, Butler,
Jefferson) Sussex County: Vernon: Incumbents: Assemblyman Scott Rumana R-Wayne, Senator
John Girgenti D-Hawthorne, Assemblywoman Nellie Pou D-North Haledon. Population:
222,626 RATING: SAFE GOP
A new very conservative district blending right-leaning inner and outer suburbs. This
could achieved while still assuring three northwestern New Jersey GOP districts (not shown).
Towns like Totowa no longer have to be in hardcore Democratic districts. This district ends the
political careers of Senator John Girgenti and Assemblywoman Nellie Pou. Girgenti has a
political target on his back and Pou is an unrepentant leftist. Girgenti might contest this but
would be lucky to break 40%. At 63% Christie it may be too safe, but with the geographic barrier
of Paterson it is hard to dillute this and add strength to other areas. Scott Rumana is a GOP
incumbent.
30th District: Essex County (Remainder of Newark), Union County (Hillside): (Incumbents:
Senator Teresa Ruiz D-Newark, Senator Ronald Rice D-Newark): Population 221,260 RATING:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
A battle royale between Ruiz’s growing North, Central, and East Ward Latino
constituency, and Rice’s older but more activist, West, West-Central and South Ward
constituency along with Hillside. Ruiz has also allied with Christie on some issues but faces
questions of voter fraud from her last race. This district would also elect two new
Assemblypeople to shake up the Democratic caucus. Hilliside might decide this contest in the
primary.

29th District: Essex County (East Orange, Irvington, Orange, Maplewood, South Orange, West
Orange) . Incumbents: Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver D-East Orange, Assemblywoman Mila
Jasey D-South Orange, Assemblyman John McKeon D-West Orange Population: 232,848
RATING: SAFE DEMOCRATIC
The Orange district lacks an incumbent Senator, but cuts Dick Codey from his homebase.
This 84% Corzine district (with no Newark!) could create an extremely interesting primary, as
the contest could be between McKeon’s experience and the need for African-American
representation.

28th District: Essex County (Caldwell, Cedar Grove, Essex Fells, Fairfield, Livingston,
Millburn, North Caldwell, Roseland, Verona, West Caldwell, West Orange) Union County
(Summit, New Providence, Berkeley Heights, Union). Incumbents: Senator Kevin O’Toole R-
Cedar Grove, Former Governor Richard Codey D-Roseland, Assemblywoman Nancy Munoz R-
Summit, Assemblyman Joe Cryan D-Union). Population: 210,798 RATING: LIKELY GOP
The toughest choice I had in this map was where to put Union and West Orange. Both are
big Democratic towns but towns that can be represented by Republicans in the right district. At
first, I felt West Orange fit better here, but on re-examination it could hurt a GOP Senate bid far
more than Union, where Christie did 7 points better. Now this 56% Christie district is safe
enough for Senator O’Toole, Assemblywoman Munoz, and a Republican Councilmember from
West Essex, even despite Codey’s $2 million. The district basically buttresses the eastern edge of
the Watchung Mountains.

27th District (Union County: Elizabeth, Linden, Rahway, Roselle, Winfield, Roselle Park):
Incumbents: Senator Raymond Lesniak D-Elizabeth, Senator Nicholas Scutari D-Linden,
Assemblywoman Annette Quijano D-Elizabeth. Population: 228,717 RATING: SAFE
DEMOCRATIC
This district puts of all of Democratic urban East Union together, and pits two partisan
Democratic Senators against each other. Unfortunately, Lesniak probably wins, but at least
Nicholas Scutari isn’t representing suburban GOP towns anymore.

21st District: Union County(Clark, Cranford, Garwood, Kenilworth, Springfield, Westfield).

Middlesex County: (Woodbridge and Carteret) Population. Incumbents: Senator Thomas H.
Kean R-Westfield, Senator Joseph Vitale D-Woodbridge, Assemblyman John Bramnick R-
Westfield, Assemblyman Craig Couglin D-Woodbridge.
This final district is the result of aggressive redistricting which is the only way that we
can end the liberal Trenton majority. Tom Kean has a great Senate leadership record, a family
name, and a solid base here in central Union County. Woodbridge was the home of Jim
McGreevey, now it is the home of Christie Democrats and an out-of-step Joe Vitale. Even
working-class Carteret only voted for Corzine marginally. So these two towns still make a 56%
Christie district. A GOP heavyweight like Kean should be easily able to defeat a Democrat from
a right-leaning town who backed Codey over Sweeney.

Conclusion: We completed step one of returning New Jersey to competitiveness by electing a

pro-growth Governor in 2009. However, our future is threatened if he does not get a pro-growth
legislature to pass tax relief and pro-business rules that will get New Jerseyans working and
prospering. The fact that Republican Assembly and Congressional candidates won the statewide
vote in 2009 and 2010 proves voters want change.
This map ends the 14 to 3 Democratic northeastern gerrymander in the State Senate.
Two Senate seats go South where at worst they split, at best we win both. Under this map, we are
virtually guaranteed 5 northeastern GOP Senators with a sixth highly likely in the new 38th. If
we win that sixth seat, the Democrats are reduced to a three-seat Northeastern New Jersey
Advantage. If the 25 southern and western seats split 15-10 for the GOP, the GOP will control
the Senate by one seat. If we can win vulnerable Democrats Jim Whelan, Fred Madden and
Jefferson Van Drew’s seats in South Jersey, our margin grows to 23-17. A GOP Senate is highly
likely.
The Assembly also could easily change. Under this map, the Democrats 23 to 6 margin
slips to 18 to 12 in the Northeast. This means if the rest of the state goes as I anticipate, we
should win a majority of Assembly seats as well.
We must be pro-active. The Democrats were not afraid to be aggressive in 2001 and
neither should we.