Valentine’s day 2011

Jonny Cranmer – Analyst, Google UK (jcranmer@google.com)

To help advertisers plan for seasonal events, we have written a brief research paper for
Valentine’s Day 2011.

As figure 1 shows, last year travel queries grew 20% in February (YoY 2010 vs. 2009). We expect
this growth to continue as we enter 2011. Our most recent figures show that all travel queries
grew 23% in Q4 2010. Valentine’s day falls in the sixth week of the year, & historically travel
queries have peaked up to 12 days before this event. However, in 2010 this peak occurred only
6 days before.

Figure1: Comparison of February query growth year-on-year: 2008-2009 vs. 2009-2010

In our experience, advertisers have not fully capitalised on the uplift in traffic leading up to
seasonal events. Figure 2 shows how query demand was matched by travel advertisers before &
after Valentine’s day 2010. As it can be seen ad-depth did not track query volume before
Valentine’s day (as the trend line shows). This indicates that the majority of advertisers did not
make the most of this seasonal increase in demand.

Figure 2: Comparison of February query growth year-on-year: 2008-2009 vs. 2009-2010

We would therefore recommend that advertisers have Valentine’s campaigns built out to
capture this traffic in February. As the figure 2 shows, acquiring traffic over this period could be
cheap as competition is low.

To help you further understand how users search for travel products around February 14th, we
have analysed other influencing factors, such as spring half-term dates & the day of the week on
which Valentine’s day falls.

In 2010, Valentine’s day fell on a Sunday. So, to have the whole weekend away, including the
Sunday Valentine’s evening, couples would have been forced to take that Monday off work. As
the chart below shows, demand for travel queries was strongest in the second half of February
2010, when compared to the previous year. Does that mean people were booking their
Valentine’s breaks for the weekend following Sunday 14th 2010?

The answer is probably not. The Spring half-term holiday is an influencing factor here. This
vacation normally takes places at the end of February, & will increase travel query volumes as
people search for family breaks.

So what trends does this show for Valentine’s day 2011? The data presented proves there is a
spike in travel queries before the Valentine’s weekend. In 2011, Valentine’s day falls on a
Monday. Therefore, it would be fair to assume that people will use the preceding weekend for
their Valentine breaks (Friday 11th – Sunday 13th).

Since the half-term holiday influences search volumes later in the month, we can effectively
assume that Valentine’s day searches decrease immediately after the 14th. Our data supports
this, in 2010 specific romantic break & Valentine travel searches decreased by 53% after
February 14th (see fig. 3). Even with this reduction, it still means users are searching for
Valentine breaks after the 14th. By the fourth week in February 2010, Valentine & romantic
break query volumes had dropped by 85%. This is important to note, especially as Valentine’s
falls on Monday this year. Ensure you allocate some of your ‘Valentines budget’, to capture
traffic for the weekend following Monday 14th February 2010.

Figure 3: Comparison of specific travel Valentine query volumes in February 2010

We have also looked at how individual travel products performed over this period.

It is interesting to note that the majority of hotel related queries were made in the first half of
February 2010. This would indicate that in February users predominately searched for Valentine
hotel deals. Car hire queries were also strongest in the first half of the month. This suggests that
people were prepared to rent a car as part of their Valentine get-away. Perhaps then, domestic
weekend breaks are the most popular choice for couples? Our data comparing the YoY growth
of queries made for domestic & foreign destination supports this. In February 2010, travel
searches for domestic destinations grew 31% vs. 29% for foreign.

Conversely, YoY growth for air queries was strongest in the second half of February 2010. It
would seem then that people are more prepared to think about international travel as part of
half term family breaks.
Deviation from the average YoY query
growth for February

Figure 4: Comparison of February query growth year-on-year: 2008-2009 vs. 2009-2010

Recommendations
This year, Valentine’s Day will fall on Monday 14th February. Taking this into account, along with
the historical data just discussed, the following recommendations can be made:

 Remember that couples this year are likely to use the weekend before Monday 14th for
their Valentine breaks. However our data suggests that people will carry on searching
for Valentine’s travel deals after the 14th. So put aside some budget to capture traffic
for the following weekend too.

 Our recent path to purchase study with Neilson’s shows that the average traveller who
purchased online, spent an average of 30 internet sessions over 50 days researching,
before buying. Thus - travel advertisers should engage users today, by being visible on
their Valentine purchase paths.

 Optimise your creative messaging for Valentine’s Day. If you have specific weekend or
Valentine’s Day packages, make sure your creative is compelling.

 Remember that consumers may be searching for value propositions online. If your
creatives are price led, make sure the price is compelling and competitive for this to
drive incremental traffic

 Also, allocate some budget to the end of the month, to avoid missing out on your ads
appearing against later half-term related travel searches.

 Valentine’s day is an emotive time of year, so for those people that aren’t searching
make sure you’re seen as user’s research and browse. The expansive Google Display
Network has an 84% reach of the UK internet population. Use this to your advantage
by appearing on creative Valentine, price-lead display & text ad’s. Also, use re-
marketing to bring interested customers back to your site.