Paper Reference No.

: PN-5
Title of the paper: Economic Growth and Urban Land Use Modelling
Name of the Presenter: Noordini binti Che’Man
Author (s) Affiliation: PhD Candidate
Mailing Address:
Eindhoven University of Technology, Faculty of Architecture, Building and
Planning, Urban Planning Group, Vertigo 8.16,PO Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven,
The Netherlands

Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Built Environment,

University Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia.
Email Address: N.Binti.Che.Man@tue.nl, b-noordini@utm.my
Telephone number (s): +31 40 2473145 /+31 631158284/+60123267649
Fax number (s): +31 40 243 8488
Author(s) Photograph

Brief Biography (100 words)

Noordini binti Che Man was born in Johor, Malaysia in 1979. She received her
Bachelor’s Degree and Master’s Degree from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia in Urban
and Regional Planning. Few months after graduation, she was designated as an academic
staff in Urban and Regional Planning Department, Faculty of Built Environment at the
same university. Noordini is currently a PhD candidate at Urban Planning Group,
Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands. Her interest is on Geographical
Information System in Urban and Regional Planning. Her PhD research is focus on Multi
Agent System Modeling for Regional Economic Growth. This paper is a brief overview
of her current PhD research.
Economic Growth and Urban Land Use Modelling
Noordini Che’Man1 and H.J.P.Timmermans2

1
PhD Candidate, Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, 5600
MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands; e-mail: N.Binti.Che.Man@tue.nl
2
Professor, Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, PO Box 513, 5600 MB
Eindhoven, The Netherlands; E-mail: h.j.p.timmermans@tue.nl

Abstract: In achieving sustainable development in Malaysia, urban planning activities have been
changes from the simple objective to a more complex exercise of comfort living conditions. This is
due to the government initiative to introduce development program to accelerate economic growth
and elevate income levels to improving quality life of people. Furthermore, with the new trends of
economic region development in Malaysia, it is reasonable to develop a model to simulate the
growth within the region using growth method. Ideally, this model will be a foundation to facilitate
town planners and decision makers to identify factors that will contribute to understand the
relationship between economic growth and dynamic land use patterns in the region. This paper
will presents an overview of integration of land use modelling technique by MAS which linked
with GIS technology in understanding and simulating economic growth of development region.
Spatial analysis and complexity modeling will be applied in a detailed case study to simulate changes
of land use in economic region of Klang Valley in Malaysia.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Multi-Agent System, Geographical Information System, Urban

Sprawl, Firm Demography.

1 Introduction

Interest in modeling urban systems particularly land use changes and growth by using
agent-based models has recently been increasing (Parker, 2005). It reflects a more general
literature on the application of such models in different domains. However, urban systems are
complex (Cheng, 2003), and therefore the development of multi-agent models to simulate the
dynamics of urban systems offers quite some challenges (Ghnemat et al., 2009). The potential
advantage of multi-agent system is that the behaviour of different actors influencing land use
decisions can be modelled. By using a bottom-up methodology, MAS can potentially better
deal with the complexity of urban growth processes which emerge as the accumulated
outcome of the decisions of these agents (Kocabas & Dragicevic, 2006).
Exploring multi-agent models, this study attempts to contribute to the development of
advanced modeling approaches to simulate dynamic land use patterns and growth in regional
economic development areas. In modeling the land use pattern and growth, multi-agent
models offer a conceptually and methodologically rich approach to include actors and factors
into dynamic spatial models of decision making (Ferrand, 1996), (Ligtenberg et al., 2004);
(Sengupta & Bennett, 2003); (Torrens, 2003b). However, these models require highly
detailed parcel-level spatial regional economic data in order to model the growth aspects of
the development decision. Moreover, the modelling of the location decision process of the
agents constitutes a challenge in its own right. Considerable research will thus be required
before we have any operational multi-agent model system for simulating economic growth
and urban dynamics. However, we can only assess the potential of this modelling approach
compared to existing ones, if we build such a model system and provide solutions for all
problems that will emerge during that process.

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 To solve these problems, it is essential to understand how urban growth and land use
change come about. Urban growth involves multiple actors with different patterns of
behaviour at various scales. In order to understand this complex system, models should be
build that simulate the dynamic behaviour of the various actors and their
interdependencies.
The main aim of this paper is to show an outline of ongoing study towards Multi Agent
Systems (MAS) modelling for planning support in urban economic growth development
areas. In particular, some main fundamental principles and concepts that we intend to adopt
in developing such a multi-agent systems will be discussed.

2 Literature Review

2.1 Multi-Agent System approach

Agent-based modeling and simulation has been used widely in various scientific research
projects on complex systems (Jennings & Wooldridge, 1998). According to (Cheng, 2003),
multi-agent (MA) systems are designed as a collection of interacting autonomous agents,
each with their own capacities and goals but related to a common environment that can
involve communication, such as passing of information from one agent and environment
to another. It is a loosely coupled network of problems solvers that interact to solve
problems that are beyond the individual capabilities or knowledge of each problem solver
(Durfee & Lesser, 1989).
In the context of regional development and urban dynamics, the agents represent the
actors that the researcher distinguishes and are deemed relevant in understanding the
dynamics. Subject to further possible disaggregation, agents thus represent firms and
households and possible planning authorities as well, depending on the specific purpose
of the system. Agent-based modeling for urban growth simulation may provide a better
solution in planning and decision support system in the sense that the MAS approach
explicitly incorporates the interaction of agents between themselves and in response to
their environment (Schumacher, 2001). Thus, rather than focusing on aggregate outcomes
only, multi-agent systems represent an attempt of capturing the decision making
processes that generate these aggregate outcomes.

2.2 Economic Growth and Firm Demography

Economic growth can be described as changes or increments in the level of production of

goods and services in the economy or a country over a period of time. Traditionally,
economic growth has been captured and modelled in an aggregate way. However, economic
growth arises as a result of decisions of a multitude of firms. Especially at the local level,
disaggregate modelling has potential advantages. Similar to micro-simulating the
demographic processes of individuals and households, firm demography may be an
interesting concept to that end. It represents an explicit attempt to simulate the formation of
new firms, their growth and decline, perhaps moves and if relevant their closure. By
simulating growth, the spatial requirement of firms may change as well, leading either to
expansion or in some cases to moving to another area. In that sense, firm demography can be
tied to shifting location requirements and in turn this may lead to changing locational
configurations of land uses and firms.

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 Firm demography thus will model the lifecycle of a firm that consist of birth, death, and
also changes in-between. Carroll & Hannan, 2000 claim that this field of research has gained
popularity especially in organisational sociology. However, it also caught some attention in
economics and economic geography (van Wissen, 2002), industrial organisation (Geroski,
1995); (Audretsch et al., 1997); (Caves, 1998), regional science (Van Dijk & Pellenbarg,
2000) and transportation (Moeckel, 2005). For this study, firm demography will be included
in the integration of multi-agent modeling and GIS in order to simulate the regional growth.

2.3 Geographical Information System (GIS) Technology

GIS is widely used to facilitate in analyzing, modeling, manipulating, representation

and displaying geo-referenced data in order to solve complex problems which relate to
planning and management of resources (NCGIA, 1990). It is more than computer systems
because it involves a methodology in sciences and applications in industry and business
(Davis, 2001). GIS is also known as advanced computer mapping. Geo-reference is the most
important thing in GIS. It has a capability in spatial reference that can enhance a meaning of
dynamic modelling. The applications based on the spatial reference will create a better geo-
simulation (Benenson and Torrens, 2004). Therefore, it would be very good if GIS data can
be accessed by the MAS. Its powerful capacity for spatial data management and
visualization provide planners new tools to implement their work more efficiently.

2.4 Related Research

Although the anticipated modelling of urban dynamics is relatively new, there is some
related work that is relevant. In addition, experience with the development and application of
multi-agent systems has been gained in different, but somewhat related domains. (Jiang,
2000), for example, simulated pedestrian movement in urban space, and showed that MAS
provide an exploratory platform to test hypotheses of space time dynamics. Similarly,
(Lombardo et al., 2004) developed a multi-agent system to simulate retail location dynamic.
The macro-level pattern of the urban system emerged from micro-level interactions. The
system represents a great tool for understanding the mechanisms underlying the evolution of
spatial patterns. (Gonçalves et al., 2004) recommended a framework for coupling GIS and the
MAS simulation tools. Their MAS-GIS model was used to study the impact of a particular
policy by modelling the behaviour of industrials under certain circumstances.
A Shell for Simulated Agent Systems (SeSAM) was developed as a tool that provides a
generic environment for modelling and experimenting in agent-based simulation (Schüle et
al., 2004). SeSAM is a generic solution of GIS-MAS coupling that can be used for many
applications which need treatment of real-world geographical data. UrbanSim is an urban
simulation model system that has evolve continuously since it began as a project in the late
1990’s at the Center for Urban Simulation and Policy Analysis at the University of
Washington (Waddell & Ulfarsson, 2004); (Waddell et al., 2008). It is an urban simulation
system which implements a perspective on urban development with the used of GIS that
represents a dynamic process from the interaction of many decision makers (actors) within
the urban markets for land, housing, non-residential space and transportation. It is not an
agent-system but plans to that effect have been announced. (Karadimas et al., 2006)
developed a system which integrated GIS and MAS in a Decision Support System for waste
management. The system provides substantial benefit to stakeholders in dealing with urban

4
solid waste management. (Ghnemat et al., 2009) reviewed the coupling of MAS-GIS in order
to implement self-organization processes which can be emerge in complex systems. These
and other example show that multi-agent systems have gradually increased in complexity and
have shifted from addressing toy-problems to comprehensive models of complex systems.

3 Background Of Study Area

3.1 Study area

The development of economic region areas is the current trend in Malaysia. The idea of
economic development areas was inspired by the successful Klang Valley region
development which is known as the heartland of Malaysia's industry and commerce. With the
aim to accelerate economic growth and elevate income levels to improve the quality life of
people, five economic regions were introduced in 2005: Iskandar Development Region
(IDR), North Corridor Economic Region (NCER), East Corridor Economic Region
(ECER) Sabah Development Corridor (SDC) and the most recent The Sarawak Corridor of
Renewable Energy (SCORE). These new economic regions have different development
concepts. With the development of these economic regions, it is reasonable to develop a
model to simulate the growth within these regions. However, after considering data
availability, it was decided to focus on Klang Valley region as the study area.
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Figure 1 : Klang Valley area

Klang Valley region (Figure 1) has no official boundary, yet it is currently often defined
to comprise of ten municipal districts which are Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Shah Alam,
Ampang Jaya, Klang, Kajang, Petaling Jaya, Selayang, Sepang and Subang Jaya. The
physical site of the area was encouraged by the development of commercial, industrial and
residential activities which made Klang Valley grow rapidly. With a population of 5.78
million people (Department of Statistics Malaysia, 2008) and areas covering up to 2,826 km2,
Klang Valley has the most urbane transportation hierarchy in Malaysia. Rather than a road
system, integrated rail transport which consist of monorail, electrified commuter, light rail

5
transit (LRT) and Express Rail Link (ERL) are build for Klang Valley’s residents and
workers to commute within the region which make it the most important region in Malaysia.

3.2 Data and variables

This study will utilize data from various sources, including GIS spatial and attribute data,
satellite images and topographic maps. The land use data of Klang Valley area is available
from year 1981 to 2002 from the Klang Valley Federal Territory. Demography data are
available for the year 1990 and 2000 from Statistical Department, Malaysia and firm data
which consist of companies registered in Malaysia will be acquired from Company
Commission of Malaysia. Other data to support the application such as transportation,
administration, building, physical and imagery are obtained from Klang Valley Federal
Territory.

4 Research Methodologies

4.1 Research Methodology

The methodology of this study comprises this following item:

i) Literature review concerning the main aspects of the research project including
MAS, GIS, urban growth/sprawl, land use modelling and simulation, firm
demography and economic growth;
ii) GIS Database design and development. The structure of GIS database for this
study is focused on the needs of study: land use development. There will be several
data layers in the database: (1) administrative data including base map, plot
coordinate, location relationships and spatial entity at land parcel level and land
information; (2) building data which contain the use of buildings; (3) physical data
such as lake, river, reservoir, drainage, contour; (4) transportation data comprise of
present, proposed and dedicated road, bus terminals, airport and rail; (5) imagery
data such as aerial photography; (6) demographic and statistical data; (7) firm data
containing registered companies in the study area;
iii) GIS Data analysis─including the analysis of attribute data and spatial data. At this
step, the analysis will run the spatial dynamic model by using GIS software.
Analysis of the data will include: (1) Develop the physical site-specific characteristic
of urban area significantly for the growth demand and the overall benefit; (2) land
use growth scenario; (3) statistical analysis;
iv) The MAS.

4.2 Linking GIS and MAS

GIS technologies are very useful for this study for two main reasons. First, GIS allow
agent-based modelers to relate agents to actual geographic locations. Thus, the integration of
GIS and MAS will enhance the capability of urban simulation technique (Brown et al., 2005);
(Parker, 2005); (Torrens & Benenson, 2005). (Urbani & Delhom, 2008) claim that the
integration of GIS and MAS open up the following capabilities:

6
 i) Makes available a considerable amount of data and information produced and used
by users who commonly employ GIS. Thus the construction of MAS-GIS model
seems will facilitate researchers who are familiar with the GIS paradigm (Gonçalves
et al., 2004).
ii) MAS paradigm used to take into account the process.
iii) This approach enables the model builders to validate the dynamic models comparing
huge simulation data with field observations.
iv) Cooperate between stakeholders and decision makers and thus improves the results
of decision process.
This study will utilise the spatial statistical analysis function of GIS software (ESRI
ArcGIS), to handle spatial and attribute data and also simulating the growth pattern.

5 Modelling Overview

5.1 Modelling as a tool to understand growth patterns

Modelling is a tool which can help people communicate easier with each other and
otherwise it also makes people understand the complex world, enlarge their knowledge
and reduce the uncertain understanding about surrounding world (Feng, 2004). With the
help of models, scenarios can be build as an important aid to future directed decision
making (Cheng, 2003). Moreover, by modelling urban growth patterns, more research can
be done on testing and evaluating theoretical hypotheses and ideas. A model can serve to
mimic part of the complexity of urban growth systems and provide valuable information
on the system’s behaviour.

Policies Agents

Agents Driving Forces

Behaviors Actions

Processes Dynamics

Outcome
Patterns

Figure 2: Ladder for modelling

(Modified from Cheng, 2003)

Based on Figure 2, there are five interlinked levels in understanding urban growth
patterns, which are policies, actors, behaviour, processes and patterns. To model urban
growth, any multi-agent modelling has to follow the ladder from the actors levels to the
outcome level, whereby, in understanding each level, its must consider the previous level.
To simulate the outcome of policies, the modelling starts with representing and modelling
the behaviour of agents, which are viewed as the driving forces of change. There response

7
to planning measures (i.e. their actions and behaviour) gives rise to active and reactive
behaviour and accumulation of these actions then lead to emerging new patterns or
outcomes.
From the perspective of modelling, multi-agent models have attractive features: (1) as
a tool which provides a straightforward way to represent actors having relatively complex
properties or behaviors; (2) as an easy way to capture directly the interactive properties of
many natural and human systems, as well as complex system behaviour that emerges
from this interaction.
In MAS, agents have the possibility to interact, communicate and collaborate with
other agents within their environment to achieve common goals. To the extent that
movement patterns of agents are simulated, Torrens (2003a) noted that the movement of
an agent has implication for other component of the agents system.

5.2 Modelling approach and design

In designing a model of regional economic growth, the following processes are

relevant:
a. Creating a Basic Model with utilizing GIS capabilities for database design and
analysis.
b. Identifying the environment of the spatial framework
c. Identifying the agents - use data within fields of data files to create agents.
d. Setting behavioral rules, user interaction, parameter setting and data capture
e. Testing and validating the model
The model will use the integration of MAS and GIS whereby the compatibility with
existing platforms, application and performance of the software, hardware and also the
operating environment must be taken into consideration.

GIS Input
Database MAS model MAS simulator

Processed Input Agent or (f) actor? Graphic user

GIS Data Analysis Potential agent to Interface
contribute

Growth Criteria- economic, physical, Output

environmental, social aspect, urban land
use, policy factor
Decision makers

Figure 3: The model structure

Figure 3 shows an overview of the general model structure for this study. Data will
be processed in GIS and stored in a database. The database will be used as input to the
MAS model. The MAS simulator with the use of friendly user graphic interface will
present the simulation to the user (decision maker) in order to interpret the output.

8
6 Conclusion And Discussion

This paper presented a brief and general overview of ongoing research towards multi-
agent modelling of regional economic growth. The project is still in its initial phase. The
integration of GIS technology and multi-agent modelling is expected to provide a growth
model/simulation that will help town planners and decision makers to identify factors that
will contribute to growth and sprawl in a region, and assess the impact of particular policies.
In developing the model for regional economic growth in Malaysia, some challenges
need to be taken into consideration. Limitations in the availability of data in digital format is
a concern in developing dynamic models (Verburg & Veldkamp, 2005). Therefore,
operational models should be based on minimally required data that preferably is already
prepared and stored in GIS format. In addition, the very integration of GIS and MAS will
have great impact on the process.
We realized that this present paper does not yet provide much detail on the specific
models and analysis. It will be reported in the next future papers and journals that will focus
on the design of the model, data analysis and simulation.

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