Professional Documents
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the BSE was established as "The Native Share & Stock Brokers' Association" in 1875.
Over the past 135 years, BSE has facilitated the growth of the Indian corporate sector by
providing it with an efficient capital raising platform.
Today, BSE is the world's number 1 exchange in the world in terms of the number of listed
companies (over 4900). It is the world's 5th most active in terms of number of transactions
handled through its electronic trading system
BSE is the first exchange in India and the second in the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000
certification. It is also the first Exchange in the country and second in the world to receive
Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002 certification for its BSE On-
Line trading System (BOLT). Presently, we are ISO 27001:2005 certified, which is a ISO version
of BS 7799 for Information Security.
Keywords:
BSE Sensex, Risk and Return, Average Annualized Returns, Risk Weighted Returns,
Standard Deviation, Coefficient of Variation, Portfolio Management, Security Analysis,
Beta, Annual WPI Inflation, Dispersion, Volatility of Stock, Market Capitalization, Value
at Risk, Confidence Level, Probability of Return, Range of Return, Bank Fixed Deposits,
Yield to Maturity, Risk Free Return, Annualized Yield.
Introduction:
For the financial year 2007-08, the Indian economy recorded a gross domestic product
(GDP) growth of 9 percent. This was the third year in a row when the Indian economy
grew at the rate of 9 percent and above. In the financial year 2005-06, the Indian
economy grew at 9.4 percent followed by 9.6 percent in 2006-07. The fast growing
Indian economy has not only opened up new opportunities for wealth creation; it has led
more and more people to invest in stocks and equity mutual funds.
The return on fixed income investments has decreased in real terms over the last fifteen
years due to increasing inflation (Refer Exhibit I for average annual WPI inflation rates in
India for the years between 1992 and 2008).
Returns from Stock Markets:
Let us have a look at the returns generated by the Indian stock market (BSE) over the last
fifteen years between March 31, 1992 and March 31, 2007. The Sensex increased from
4285 points on March 31, 1992 to 13072.10 points as on March 31, 2007 (Refer Exhibit
II for the BSE Sensex Chart).
The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) recorded by the BSE Sensex during this
period is 7.72 percent (Refer Table I for the annual return and standard deviation
recorded by BSE Sensex between March 1992 and March 2007).
To calculate the return generated by Sensex and its standard deviation, we have taken the
closing figures of Sensex on March 31 each year. In case March 31 is a holiday, we have
taken the preceding day's figures.
From these figures, we have first calculated the year-on-year return on the index by using
the following formula:
For calculating the average return, we have added all the annual returns obtained between
1992 and 2007 and divided the figure by the number of years. In other words, for the
period we are looking at i.e. 15 years, the figure obtained is the average return on Sensex
over 15-year period. Similarly, we have calculated returns for ten years, seven years, five
years, three years, two years and one-year period (Refer Exhibit III to Exhibit VIII).
Exhibit :
A Paper on
"Risk - Return Relationship & the effect of
Diversification
on Unsystematic Risk using Market Index Model"
Introduction:
"Sometimes your best investments are the ones you don't make." This is a maxim
which best explains the complexity of making investments. There are many
investment avenues available for investors today. Different people have different
motives for investing. For most investors their interest in investment is an
expectation of some positive rate of return. But investors cannot overlook the fact
that risk is inherent in any investment. Risk varies with the nature of return
commitment. Generally, investment in equity is considered to be more risky than
investment in debentures & bonds. A closer look at risk reveals that some are
uncontrollable (systematic risk) and some are controllable (unsystematic risk). Risk
can be categorized into two types:
The risk that cannot be diversified away like interest rate risk and recession is known
as systematic risk. Unsystematic risk is stock specific and can be diversified away.
Scarcities in raw material supply, labour strike, and management inefficiency are all
problems specific to a company and are internal in nature. These negative factors
can make the share price fall sharply but can be avoided if well thought. An
investment in the shares of certain other companies with sound management can
help minimize this risk. Therefore diversification is the mantra for any prudent
investor. Diversification is done in many ways. Investors can diversify across one
type of asset classification - such as equities or among different asset classes such
as stocks, bonds, fixed income and bullion etc. But the question to be answered is:
How many stocks help diversify unsystematic risk? Theory suggests that 18-20
stocks in a portfolio helps to reduce unsystematic risk. But again, tracking 18-20
stocks becomes cumbersome for investor. Whatever be the number of stocks, it is an
undeniable fact that Diversification helps reduce unsystematic risk. This paper stands
to investigate the effect of diversification on unsystematic risk by applying Sharpe's
Single Index Model and also analyzes the relationship between return & risk.
Research Objective:
The broad objective of the paper is to examine whether unsystematic risk declines
with diversification. Also effort has been made to find out the extent of correlation
between portfolio return and risk i.e. the relationship between portfolio's beta &
expected return. The analysis also makes an attempt to find out whether stocks with
high beta values give high return to investors. For research purpose, 30 securities of
the companies comprised in BSE Sensex between the period April 2006 to March
2007 has been selected
The major assumption of Sharpe's single-index model is that all the covariation of
security returns can be explained by a single factor. This factor is called the index,
hence the name "single-index model." One version of the model, called the market
model, uses a market index such as the BSE Sensex as the factor (any factor that
influences security returns can serve as the index).
Methodology used.
The data consists of daily closing prices of BSE- Sensex for the period from April
2006 to March 2007. For study purpose, inorder to calculate Return on stock, Return
on market index (BSE Sensex), and Expected Return on securities and portfolios it is
assumed that market will give 15 percent annual return.
TABLE
Portfolio Stocks Var.st B1 Alpha Syst. rick Unsy-stam Cor.Co. (1-R2) Exp. Ret.
B1 2ox2 atic ei2 eff. R2 E(R)
P1 15 2.75 0.88 -.02 .02 2.72 0.47 0.53 0.13
P2 15 3.14 1.12 -0.05 0.04 3.10 0.56 0.44 0.14
The above table shows the statistical summary of two portfolios constructed on the
basis of beta value of thirty stocks. P1 is low market risk portfolio and high market
risk portfolio is P2. Total risk of P1 is low as compared to P2. The expected return is
consistent with its market risk. If invested in P1 can realize 13% annual return
whereas investment in P2 offers 14% annual return. Therefore it is evident that with
diversification as a tool unsystematic risk can be minimized. As per the investor's
risk appetite portfolio can be constructed. To conclude, several vaccinations are
needed to protect one's portfolio from vagaries of market. "DIVERSIFICATION" which
is much talked about but seldom practiced can be the right tool for any investor. So
all investors in order to counter unsystematic risk vaccinate your portfolios with
diversification.
REFERENCES
It's a matter of pleasure to have our article published in the management website
indianmba.com. We would like to express our gratitude to all those who gave us the
possibility to complete this article. We want to thank the Dean & Director of IBMR
Dr.R.K.Balyan for being a constant source of inspiration and Prof.Kavita Sharma for
stimulating us.
Risk Management
Nature of Risks
Nature of Risks:
The Exchange has been exposed to a large number of risks, which have been inherently borne
by the member brokers for all times. Since the introduction of the screen based trading the nature
of risks to which the members of the Exchange are exposed to has undergone radical
transformation. At the same time the inherent risk involved with the trading of paper based
securities still remains. Though the process of dematerialisation has already begun, till such that
it is made compulsory in all scrips, the risk of trading in fake/forged shares and instances of loss
of shares etc. will continue to exist. The safe custody of these shares in physical form in the
Exchange as well as in the member brokers offices is of prime importance.
As a measure of the pro-active risk control several measures have been initiated by the
Exchange to reduce the risks to which the Exchange and the member brokers are exposed. In
this regard the Exchange has initiated the following measures:
Under the procedure the member brokers of the Exchange are compulsory required to obtain
detailed information of clients prior to commencement of any transactions for new clients. A
similar procedure is also to be followed for existing clients. This information is to be made
available to the Exchange authorities whenever called for. In case the member brokers fails to
furnish the same it is viewed seriously
The Exchange maintains a database on all the shares that have been reported as lost, stolen,
duplicate etc. by the Companies / registrars. The information available through the database is
time relevant thus the database is modified on a regular basis and is downloaded by the
members through BOLT on a weekly basis. This database is also provided to the Clearing House.
The member brokers can thus reduce the instances of delivery of shares that have been reported
by the Company as bad delivery by checking all the deliveries in their office with the database
provided. The Exchange has designed and developed a software module for the above for the
benefit of the members.
The Clearing House also uses the database. At the time of pay-in the members of the Exchange
are required to submit the details of the shares being deposited in the pay-in in a softcopy in a
prescribed format.. These details are checked against the database and a report is generated in
case a match is found. Such shares are then reported as bad delivery in the Exchange. Further
follow-up is done with the delivering broker and they are directed to lodge a police complaint
against the client introducing the stolen shares.
The Risk Management department in conjunction with the Bad Delivery Cell of the Exchange, the
Exchange has designed and developed a client database. All member brokers whose clients /
sub-brokers have introduced fake / forged shares are required to lodge a FIR / Police complaint
against their clients and also report the same to the Exchange. The information of such clients is
called for in a prescribed format. As per the scheme the members have to collect detailed
information about the clients. These details are incorporated in the database, which is
downloaded to the members, as a precautionary measure. The member brokers at the time of
admitting new clients can refer to the client caution database for further verification.
The Risk Management Committee has outlined a process for minimizing the risks arising out of
Fake/ forged /stolen shares introduced by the clients of the member brokers.
As per the procedure outlined issued by the Exchange, in case the transaction in a script with one
particular client in a settlement exceeds Rs. 10 lakhs then the member brokers are required to
send the photocopies of the transfer - deeds and the share certificates to the Company /
Registrar for verification of the material particulars. The members can select a random sample for
the same from the lot. A similar procedure should also be followed in case the shares worth more
than Rs. 10 lakhs are received from the Clearing House during pay-out in one scrip.
The basic idea behind the introduction of this procedure is to prevent Fake/ forged/stolen shares
from being introduced in the market. The Exchange issued a notice outlining the procedure to be
followed. The above procedure is an important Risk Management Tool especially where there
exists a large volume of deliveries. The Risk Management Department acts as a facilitator in this
regard and has written to all "A" group and B1 group companies in this regard seeking their co-
operation.
5. Inspection :
The department is carrying out inspection of the member brokers records as regards compliance
of the risk management procedures.
About ICCL
Indian Clearing Corporation Limited ("ICCL") has been promoted by Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd ("BSE")
as its 100% owned subsidiary company, inter alia, to function as a Clearing Corporation. At present, ICCL
undertakes clearing and settlement services for the Mutual Funds Segment and Corporate Debt Segment of
BSE. ICCL also undertakes clearing & settlement functions of the Currency Derivatives Segment of United
Stock Exchange of India Limited ("USE")
The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but was
shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market
Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best practice globally.
All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float
methodology.
Due to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the
Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly
long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the SENSEX has over the years become
one of the most prominent brands in the country
1 Day Technical Analysis Chart of Indian stock market BSE Sensex Index
5 Day Technical Analysis Chart of Indian stock market BSE Sensex Index
1 Year Technical Analysis Chart of Indian stock market BSE Sensex Index
FAQ's
Q.1 What is SENSEX?
The SENSEX, short form of the BSE-Sensitive Index, is a "Market Capitalization-Weighted" index of
30 stocks representing a sample of large, well-established and financially sound companies. It is the
oldest index in India and has acquired a unique place in the collective consciousness of investors.
The index is widely used to measure the performance of the Indian stock markets. SENSEX is
considered to be the pulse of the Indian stock markets as it represents the underlying universe of
listed stocks at The Stock Exchange, Mumbai. Further, as the oldest index of the Indian Stock
market, it provides time series data over a fairly long period of time (since 1978-79).
Q.3 What are the criteria for selection and review of scrips for the
SENSEX?
A. Quantitative Criteria:
1) Market Capitalization:
The scrip should figure in the top 100 companies listed by market capitalization. Also market
capitalization of each scrip should be more than 0.5 % of the total market capitalization of the Index
i.e. the minimum weight should be 0.5 %. Since the SENSEX is a market capitalization weighted
index, this is one of the primary criteria for scrip selection. (Market Capitalization would be
averaged for last six months)
2) Liquidity:
(i) Trading Frequency: The scrip should have been traded on each and every trading day for the last
one year. Exceptions can be made for extreme reasons like scrip suspension etc. (ii) Number of
Trades: Number of Trades: The scrip should be among the top 150 companies listed by average
number of trades per day for the last one year. (iii) Value of Shares Traded: Value of Shares
Traded: The scrip should be among the top 150 companies listed by average value of shares traded
per day for the last one year.
3) Continuity:
Whenever the composition of the index is changed, the continuity of historical series of index values
is re-established by correlating the value of the revised index to the old index (index before
revision). The back calculation over the last one-year period is carried out and correlation of the
revised index to the old index should not be less than 0.98. This ensures that the historical
continuity of the index is maintained.
4) Industry Representation:
Scrip selection would take into account a balanced representation of the listed companies in the
universe of BSE. The index companies should be leaders in their industry group.
5) Listed History:
The scrip should have a listing history of at least one year on BSE.
B. Qualitative Criteria:
Track Record:
In the opinion of the Index Committee, the company should have an acceptable track record.
Q.4 What is the beta of SENSEX scrips?
Beta measures the sensitivity of a scrip movement relative to movement in the benchmark index
i.e. SENSEX. A Beta of one means that for every change of 1% in index, the scrip moves by 1%.
Statistically Beta is defined as: Covariance (SENSEX, Stock )/ Variance(SENSEX)
Note: Covariance and variance are calculated from the Daily Returns data of the SENSEX and
SENSEX scrips
The base period of SENSEX is 1978-79. The actual total market value of the stocks in the Index
during the base period has been set equal to an indexed value of 100. This is often indicated by the
notation 1978-79=100. The formula used to calculate the Index is fairly straightforward. However,
the calculation of the adjustments to the Index (commonly called Index maintenance) is more
complex.
The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the total market capitalization of 30 companies in the
Index by a number called the Index Divisor. The Divisor is the only link to the original base period
value of the SENSEX. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all
Index maintenance adjustments. During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest
trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate SENSEX every 15 seconds and
disseminated in real time.
The Index Cell of the Exchange does the day-to-day maintenance of the index within the broad
index policy framework set by the Index Committee. The Index Cell takes special care to ensure
that SENSEX and all the other BSE indices maintain their benchmark properties by striking a
delicate balance between high turnover in Index scrips and its representative character. The Index
Committee of the Exchange has experts from different field of finance related to the capital
markets. They include Academicians, Fund-managers from leading Mutual Funds, Finance -
Journalists, Market Participants, Independent Governing Board members, and Exchange
administration.
Q.8 How are adjustments for Bonus, Rights and newly issued Capital
carried out in SENSEX?
The arithmetic calculation involved in calculating SENSEX is simple, but problem arises when one of
the component stocks pays a bonus or issues rights shares. If no adjustments were made, a
discontinuity would arise between the current value of the index and its previous value. The Index
Cell of the Exchange periodically adjusts the base value to take care of such corporate
announcements.
Adjustments for Rights Issues:
When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues right shares, the market
capitalisation of that company is increased by the number of additional shares issued based on the
theoretical (ex-right) price. An offsetting or proportionate adjustment is then made to the Base
Market Capitalisation (see ' Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment' below).
Adjustments for Bonus Issue:
When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues bonus shares, the market
capitalisation of that company does not undergo any change. Therefore, there is no change in the
Base Market Capitalisation, only the 'number of shares' in the formula is updated.
Other Issues: Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment is required when new shares are issued by
way of conversion of debentures, mergers, spin-offs etc. or when equity is reduced by way of buy-
back of shares, corporate restructuring etc.
Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment: The formula for adjusting the Base Market
Capitalisation is as follows:
New Base Market Capitalisation = Old Base Market Capitalisation X (New Market Capitalisation/Old
Market Capitalisation)
To illustrate, suppose a company issues right shares which increases the market capitalisation of
the shares of that company by say, Rs.100 crores. The existing Base Market Capitalisation (Old
Base Market Capitalisation), say, is Rs.2450 crores and the aggregate market capitalisation of all
the shares included in the index before the right issue is made is, say Rs.4781 crores. The "New
Base Market Capitalisation " will then be: Rs.2501.24 crores = 2450 X (4781+100)/4781
This figure of 2501.24 will be used as the Base Market Capitalisation for calculating the index
number from then onwards till the next base change becomes necessary.
Technical Analysis, Trend Analysis, Support and Resistant levels of the Indian
Stock Market BSE Sensex Index
Stock charts gained popularity in the late 19th Century from the writings of Charles H.
Dow in the Wall Street Journal. His comments, later known as "Dow Theory", alleged that
markets move in all kinds of measurable trends and that these trends could be deciphered and
predicted in the price movement seen on all charts.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS seeks to determine future stock price by understanding and
measuring the objective "value" of an equity. The study of stock charts, known as TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS, believes that the past action of the market itself will determine the future course of
prices.
A stock chart is a simple two-axis (x-y) plotted graph of price and time. Each individual
equity, market and index listed on a public exchange has a chart that illustrates this movement of
price over time. Individual data plots for charts can be made using the CLOSING price for each day.
The plots are connected together in a single line, creating the graph. Also, a combination of the
OPENING, CLOSING, HIGH and/or LOW prices for that market session can be used for the data
plots. This second type of data is called a PRICE BAR. Individual price bars are then overlaid onto
the graph, creating a dense visual display of stock movement.