Professional Documents
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world market was above that anticipated in the plan; however, their
physical production was not achieved, as in the case of nickel, which
we forecast at $14,400 per ton, with the average price of nickel
touching $20,000 per ton. What does that mean? That even when
the price was favorable in comparison to that anticipated in the
plan, by failing to meet the physical production we lost additional
income, and that should be known. That cost us $120 million.
There was another product that had an average price well above the
one we anticipated in the plan, which was the case of tons or pounds
of sugar, however you want to put it and, given a significant shortfall
in exportable sugar production, we were similarly unable to take
advantage of the situation of market prices being higher than those
that we planned. And, in the case of not meeting our sugar exports,
we lost income in the order of $60-65 million which we would have
seen if the physical production envisaged in the plan had been met.
I emphasize that this year we could have had higher income in the
context of exports, which we did not have due to productive
shortfalls; in any event, as I said, exports grew.
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But this year, while there were investments that did meet that
policy, which gave income in the short term and which paid the
debts and financing with money generated from the investment
itself; however, neither are we going to fulfill the investment plan at
an adequate level.
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In the plan the mercantile circulation of goods and services was set
at 31.571 billion pesos, we have an estimate of 30.979 billion:
MINCIN (Ministry of Domestic Trade) 20,720 billion, and there is
going to be 20.5 billion pesos in the year. MINCIN is going to be left
with a deficit in the mercantile circulation plan – mercantile
circulation is retail sales in pesos – of approximately 220 million.
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because it is being kept. Then there is also the risk, given that those
accounts accrue interest, they grow over time; but the good news is
that liquidity in the hands of the population did not grow and
remains slightly below, that is synonymous with us having had a
stable internal financial balance for 18 months. Imbalance in
internal finances is not one of the disproportions that the economy
has today.
In any event, the fact that one has neared 4.2% and the other 4.4% is
a good sign because, as we explained last year, we were carrying that
problem for a number of years without being able to solve it; and we
explained that even with the two adjustments we made to the plan,
in the year in which we adjusted the plan, we still couldn’t solve that
problem, and we explained that the plan itself still hadn’t solved it,
and now we are coming very close to a balance, and next year there
will be improvements in the budget plan that we are making. For
next year we are giving 1.95% – of course, that is also associated
with the process of reducing inflated rosters and labor availability,
because if employees leave the state sector and the economy grows,
clearly that’s going to improve that relation.
I said just now that, while the economy grew as anticipated, there
were specific entities which did not meet their growth targets. In the
case of agriculture, 12 areas of production failed to achieve the
productive levels anticipated for the year, particularly in agriculture:
meaning pork meat, eggs, rice for consumption, root vegetables,
fresh vegetables, beans, citrus fruits and lumber. This shortfall in 12
productive sectors resulted in additional imports of $63 million
above those anticipated. We had to rush to find a shipment of beans,
we had to import more rice. Here there was everything: here there
was a lack of water, one thing or another, but also there were many
organizational problems and a lot of indiscipline on the part of
producers.
These are the productions that have been most affected, here are the
data. The rice target was 327,000 tons and the estimate that we are
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giving is of 247,000 tons. That meant that with this volume of rice
produced we had to deliver 169,000 tons of rice to MINCIN to
distribute via the household ration system or for social
consumption, and the latest estimate we have is 81,000 tons, and
that shortfall had to be imported, and is part of the $63 million
figure that I already gave you.
And there is also a lack of foresight in the plan for providing the
resources to these entities so that they can produce in a stable way,
as they must do, and not at the point when we do not have a specific
product; in any event, given that we have to eat, we have to go out
and buy it. Orderliness in the process of the plan and on the part of
the Ministry of the Economy with the three entities associated with
food production is a determining factor in the economic results
which we want to have in the next few years.
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And likewise, even though there have been advances in fuel control,
there are entities which did not meet their levels of activity but went
over their fuel consumption allocations for the year; that happened
as well. In the case of agriculture that cost us 17,800 tons; there are
others as well, in a lesser quantity. But there has to be tight
discipline, because if there isn’t, we are not going to put the
economy in order. This is the time to support the objectives of the
plan and not set about inventing anything outside of the plan.
Failing to meet the sugar harvest also comes into play; that also cost
us a lot of money, with sugar prices being very favorable; there was a
shortfall of 195,000 tons.
Now what is happening is that they are telling us, "Well, the
Ministry of Transport was supposed to have transported x cargoes
for me and I had to do it myself." Well, you have to go there and say
to the Ministry of Transport, "the fuel allocated for that has to go
through here." But we have to strictly comply with the freight
structure.
And I will take advantage and say here that investments made in the
railroad system in the Ministry of Transport are being paid for with
fuel savings, and fuel savings are achieved by complying with the
freight structure. This year, we are going to move 54 million tons of
products with 222,000 tons, approximately, using diesel; and next
year we have to move 2 million more with 182,000 tons. If that
freight structure is not complied with and more fuel is wasted
transporting the same amount, where are the savings for paying
everything that we are doing on the railroads, the investments that
have been made?
I insist on the idea that the concepts, the numbers and the costs of
the plan have to be followed every day.
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In relation to the state budget – which you also have in the report –
a deficit of 2.466 million is anticipated, up 0.3% on that inscribed in
law for this year. In that context, what is approved in the budget is a
deficit of 3.5% and it’s going to 3.8%. That increase in the deficit is
fundamentally associated with shortfalls in income, because there
the reduction in expenditure was also lower than that anticipated.
On the next page, you can see the performance of budget income
and expenditure.
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processes – as has been said – which has ranged from the central
budget to the latest budgets, and we have received part of the report
and are currently awaiting the other, and it is true that there is a lot
of reserves and much disorder in the handling of budgets, which
could produce savings… (He is told something)
The president is saying that here is the larger source of income that
we could have if we did it well.
And some little things that we have done have not been well fulfilled
and strict discipline will have to be applied to that.
It's true that the way in which we receive income from abroad is not
linear; and there are periods of time during which the money doesn't
get here and later on, it piles up. We need to identify precisely,
ourselves and the bank, funds which are temporarily available,
because production can't wait for financing. It has its own rhythm
and when it's interrupted, the logistics become more complicated.
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This is truly a deficiency that the plan has not resolved, not in its
development, or in its actual execution. We have to work on this.
That's why, as I explained, three times this year, financing was
advanced.
So now, where are we? We are now at the point when the entities
receive their figures for the coming year and they are identifying
different parts of their business plan and what is expected is that, on
January 1, everyone should have their plan in hand and everyone
should know what they have to do and it's a good thing that the
deputies should know this.
There is not a single entity that can, in any way, justify an enterprise
in Cuba not having a plan in hand on January 1. This is what the
Council of Ministers agreed to. There can be no improvisations,
because if you don't have a plan on day one, what are you going to
do during the first period of the year? Where are the resources
coming from? Where are the funds coming from? What do you have
to produce, at what cost, how efficiently? What effect does your
production have on the next guy's? So that what happened to us one
day doesn't happen. We were checking some of MINCIN's sales and
MINCIN said, "We didn't meet the sales target because they didn't
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give me the beds." The bed people said, "We didn't produce the beds
because somebody else didn't give us the pipe." And the pipe people
said, "We didn't deliver the pipe because the raw material from
China didn't get here." We can't have it, it's a chain reaction. We
have to make sure it doesn't happen.
Let's look at rice. Next year, we will have to get 445,000 tons from
Vietnam, which have already been signed for, contracted; now of
these 445,000 tons, more or less, 50% must be paid for within 360
days and the rest within 540, but 445,000 tons of rice is going for
around $231 million.
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the policy that investments generating hard currency income for the
country, and those which provide a rapid return, should be
prioritized within the investment process. As you can see, the
structure is favoring productive investments and, within the social
sphere, we will have to make do with what we have for a few years.
Since the beginning of time, the general store has always existed in
rural areas, where people go to buy what they need and those
products need to be supplied. Ah, these products are not going to be
subsidized, they will be sold without any subsidy and we are
reviewing the prices now, too.
There are some products which have come out at a price that may be
a little high; during the first quarter of the coming year, given that
many of the general stores have a surplus of these products, we will
begin to make some decisions about the prices, if we have to lower
them, or raise others. What we have coordinated with ANAP - and
Lugo agrees - is first to assure the supply of the products, and then
later we can talk about the price; that the products are available in
the market, and if, at a given time, it is necessary, we may have to
lower the price of a certain product, we can do it. In principle,
however, we are talking about the whole of these products, when you
multiply the money produced, it doesn't allow for a subsidy,
although there may be some which create more income. Therefore,
what we are talking about is the average, not each product exactly.
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I've seen that a few products are a bit expensive; we are going to
review the structure of those prices.
One group of products for building walls and dry goods are sold by
MINCIN, in national currency, without subsidies, with all the
instability we've seen, with all the instability! That the cement blocks
arrive, but not enough, all this we know; that there were places
where the blocks were produced and then confusion as to who was
to transport them and there they were and MINCIN saying, we don't
have any gas and someone else saying, its not my job. All of this is
perfectly delineated and reconciled with all the entities in the plan
and exactly where everyone's responsibility lies.
The numbers are, more or less, the following: of the 1.52 billion
pesos worth of construction materials to be sold, one billion is going
to the state budget, in terms of distribution tax and we have
calculated that of this one billion, 888 million has to be set aside, to
be given to low-income families who now receive subsidized
materials, so that they receive a monetary subsidy and the cement
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block is sold in the market, at the same price for all. This policy has
been approved and is in the process of implementation.
The 880 million will permit us to finish 5,000 or 6,000 homes and
some 19,000 renovations, which is what is done today for the
families who receive subsidized construction materials. There
should not be, therefore, any impact. The only change is that instead
of receiving a subsidized cement block, you are going to receive
financing, which will have to be approved by the Municipal
Administrative Council. So, if it's 1.52 billion and we're taking 888
million for this, that means, more or less, 50 cents for every peso in
sales is devoted to this end, that we are going to distribute this
proportionately through the provincial and municipal budgets. So
that the number of cases which can be addressed will depend on the
sales made within the territory and that the Administrative Councils
will have to manage their budgets, even with all the limitations and
all that we've talked about here. That's why we spoke so forcefully
about the kiosks this morning, because every time we go adding
different items [for sale], if this is not well organized from the
beginning, it can turn out badly. And it's not a bad idea, what was
bad was the implementation.
I'm saying this because delegates have already asked questions and
lots of people are asking what's going to happen to the hurricane
damaged dwellings that are half done. They are going to be
completed, what's happening is so irrational, that, today, the same
block costs 45 cents one place and five pesos someplace else, this
doesn't make the slightest sense, no sense whatsoever!
That is to say, that's the policy, we have to work hard and we're
implementing it.
The same goes for a group of people who one way or another won
themselves the right to build their home, they're building their own
home, they aren't working and they're paid their full wage. I visited
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one individual, not long ago, who was at home for five years. For
practically four years he was not given materials, and he was there
waiting for the materials and drawing his wage.
The state budget: for the coming year we are indicating a deficit of
3.8%. We would have liked to stay within 3.5%, but we couldn't do
it, although we are still reviewing it.
I thought it would be good for you to know that we are not only
working on this year's plan, but that work has been done on the
future prospects of the economy and these are economic models
which are run in order to go about achieving a more balanced
economy.
UP
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