Argument Analysis Task

Choose ONE of the arguments below to work with and

state whether the argument is convincing to you or not.
Please give specific reasons for your opinion. There one
example has been done for you.

Argument 1

The following appeared in a newspaper article about law

firms in the city of Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who
went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15%
over the last three years, whereas an increasing number
of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms.
Even though large firms usually offer much higher
salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for
the smaller firms most likely because they experience
greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of
first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed
with the statement that earning a high salary was less
important to them than job satisfaction. This finding
suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will
need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and
reduce the number of hours they must work."

Argument 2

The following appeared in a popular health and fitness

magazine.
"A ten-year study of a group of 552 men from Elysia
showed that long-term consumption of caffeinated black
tea was associated with a much lower risk of stroke. Of
these men, those who drank more than three cups of
black tea a day had a 70 percent lower risk of stroke than
those who drank no tea. These results suggest that
health-conscious people should consume at least three
cups of black tea a day, beginning early in life."

Argument 0 - Example

The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar

school district.

"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available

at school for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that
children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children
to be absent from or late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast
before school plays a role in reducing student absenteeism and
tardiness. It is also well known that children who regularly eat a
healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. Therefore, in
order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to improve
academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary
schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each
school day."

Sample of argument analysis

In this memo the superintendent of the Mylar school district
concludes that by providing
breakfast to all its students the district would reduce tardiness and
absenteeism as well as
improve the overall academic performance of its students. To
support this conclusion the
superintendent points out that during a 6-month trial program
involving 100 students ranging in age from 5 to 12, these students
were less likely to be tardy or absent than other students. The
superintendent also cites the well-known fact that eating healthful
breakfasts on a regular
basis improves academic performance. The superintendent's
argument is problematic in
several respects, rendering the argument unconvincing as it
stands.
The argument's chief problem is that it relies on numerous
unsubstantiated assumptions
about the 6-month study. One such assumption is that the
participants' regular and punctual
attendance was attributable to the fact that breakfasts were
provided. Yet logic and common
sense inform me that the results might have been due instead to
one or more other factors.
Perhaps these particular students were compelled to show up
punctually and regularly for
some other reason. Perhaps the 100 participants were
comparatively reliable and disciplined
children who are less likely in any event to be late for school. Or
perhaps the participants are
relatively healthy and therefore less likely to be absent from school
than the average student.
Moreover, it is uncertain whether the program's participants even
ate the breakfasts that the
trial program provided. In short, without considering and ruling out
alternative explanations for
the study's results, the superintendent cannot justifiably conclude
that the results are due to
the fact that breakfasts were provided to participating students.
Even if the participants' punctual and regular attendance was due
to the breakfasts provided
to them, the statistical reliability of the trial program's results is
questionable. The number of
participants, 100, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to
draw any reliable
conclusions about how district students 5-12 years of age would
behave under similar
conditions---as a group. The larger this group compared to the
sample of 100 participants, the
less reliable the study's results. Also, the sample might be
unrepresentative of district students as a group. For example,
perhaps the 100 participants happened to be children who eat
small dinners and are therefore hungry for breakfast.
Even if the 100 participants are statistically representative of
district students 5-12 years of
age, one cannot infer that older, secondary-school students would
behave similarly under
similar conditions. Yet by concluding that the district should
implement the program for its
secondary-school students as well, the superintendent seems to
assume without supporting
evidence that this is the case. In short, lacking assurances that the
100 participants arestatistically representative of all district
students, the superintendent can not draw any reliable conclusions
based on the study.
Aside from the problems involving the 6-month study, the
superintendent's conclusion that
the overall academic performance of district students would
improve under the proposed
program is unwarranted. By relying on the fact that eating healthful
breakfasts on a regular
basis improves academic performance, the superintendent
assumes that the district's
breakfasts would be healthful and that students would eat them on
a regular basis.
Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate these crucial
assumptions. It is entirely possible that the district's breakfasts
would not be sufficiently healthful, or that district students would
not eat these breakfasts regularly. In fact, the superintendent has
not shown either that the trial program's participants or that the
broader population of district students would eat healthful
breakfasts, or any breakfast at all, under any circumstances.
In conclusion, the superintendent's argument is specious. To
bolster it she must provide clear evidence that the 100 participants
in the trial program actually attended school regularly and
punctually because of the breakfasts provided, and that these 100
students are statistically representative not only of other 5-12 year-
olds but of older students as well--as a group. Finally, to better
evaluate the daim that the program would improve academic
performance I would need more information about the
healthfulness of the breakfasts provided under the proposed
program.