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• CDS buyer, long protection, pays a fixed fee or premium to the CDS seller, short
protection, for a period of time.
o If a pre-specified “credit event” occurs, the CDS short pays compensation to
the CDS long.
• If no “credit event” occurs during the term of the swap, the CDS long continues to
pay the premium until maturity.
• If a “credit event” occurs at some point before the contract’s maturity, the CDS short
owes a payment to the CDS long, thus insulating the protection buyer “long” from a
financial loss.
o Net positions of major players in the CDO market as of the end of 2003.
200
150
100
50
0
"Global Banks' Insurers Total' Insurers: Life, Health, Insurers: Reinsurance' Financial Gurantors' Hedge Funds'
P&C'
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
• Mechanics of a CDS.
o In a credit default swap, the buyer and the seller of protection enter into a
contract where the protection buyer pays a fixed premium for protection
against a certain “credit event” such as a bankruptcy of the reference entity, or
a default of a debt issued by the reference entity.
o Usually there is no exchange of money when the two parties enter into the
contract.
They make payments during the term of the contract, thus explaining
the term credit default “swap.”
• CDS spreads.
o The spread is the premium paid by the protection buyer “long” to the seller
“short”.
o The spread is often quoted in basis points per annum of the contract’s notional
value and is usually paid quarterly.
o Note that CDS spreads are the annual price of protection quoted in bps of
notional value, and not based on any risk-free bond or any benchmark interest
rates.
• CDS are a form of put option.
o The protection buyer “long the put” can exercise the put when a credit event
occurs.
In the case of physical delivery the bond is put to the protection
provider in exchange for the par value.
In the case of cash settlement the protection seller reimburses the
protection buyer for the difference between the bond’s par and
recovery value.
o The CDS spread can be viewed as a premium on the put option, where
payment of the premium is spread over the term of the contract.
Example: The 5-year credit default swap for Ford was quoted around
160bps on April 27, 2004.
• This means that if you want to buy the 5-year protection for a
$10 million exposure to Ford credit, you would pay 40bps or
$40,000 every quarter as an insurance premium for the
protection you receive.
• Trigger Events
o Bankruptcy
The reference entity becomes insolvent or unable to pay its debt.
o Failure to Pay
Occurs when the reference entity, after a certain grace period, fails to
make payment of principal or interest.
o Restructuring
A change in the terms of the debt obligations that is adverse to the
creditors.
• Pricing
o Early pricing of CDS was more art than science.
o Current pricing is more quantitatively based.
Parameters include
1. Probability of default (PD)
2. Recovery rate (1-LGD)
3. Some consideration for liquidity, regulatory, and market
sentiment about the credit.
o In theory, CDS spreads should be closely related to bond yield spreads, or
excess yields to risk-free government bonds.
Relationship between CDS and bonds.
1. Form a portfolio consisting of
a. Short the a CDS on Company A
b. Long a risk-free bond
2. Buy a corporate bond issued by Company A with notional
value $100
The above investments provide identical returns implying that the
CDS spread should equal the corporate bond spread.
• No default occurs.
o Portfolio 1 :
• CDS expires unexercised
• Risk-free bond pays $100
o Portfolio 2:
• Corporate bond pays $100
• Default occurs
o Portfolio 1:
• CDS put feature is exercised generating an
outflow of $100*LGD
• Risk-free bond pays $100
• Net cash inflow is $100*(1-LGD)
o Portfolio 2:
• Corporate bond defaults paying $100*(1-LGD)
• Accordingly, the CDS and the corporate bond should be traded
at the same spread level.
• In pricing a CDS, one must know, or make assumptions about:
o Probability of default over the term of the swap
o Loss given default
o Discount factors (yield curve).
o A typical CDS contract specifies two potential cash flow streams:
A fixed leg.
• On the fixed leg side, the buyer of protection “long” makes a
series of fixed, periodic payments of CDS premium until the
maturity, or until the reference credit defaults.
A contingent leg.
• On the contingent leg side, the protection seller “short” makes
one payment only if the reference credit defaults.
• Amount of contingent payment is usually the notional amount
multiplied by LGD.
The value of a CDS contract to the protection buyer at any given point
of time is the difference between the present value of the contingent
leg and fixed legs.
Value of CDS (to protection buyer ) = PV [Contingent leg ] − PV [Fixed ( premium ) leg ]