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21 December 2010

USAFRICOM - related news stories

TOP NEWS RELATED TO U.S. AFRICA COMMAND AND AFRICA

Obama Pursues 'Aggressive Diplomacy' to Promote Successful Referendum

(AllAfrica.com)
(Sudan) U.S. President Barack Obama has written to African leaders to reiterate that
Sudan is a foreign policy priority for his administration, both during the lead-up to the
January 9 referendum on independence for the south, and in response to the continuing
crisis in Darfur.

The United States and Africa Security Cooperation and the Africa Command
(AFRICOM) (Foreign Policy Journal)
Post-Cold War United States-Africa security cooperation has been transformed from the
humanitarian efforts of President George Bush Sr. that ended with the Somalia debacle
in 1994, through the selective engagement policy of President Bill Clinton that avoided
the Rwandan civil conflict to what could be viewed as a more structured relationship
with clearly defined priorities under President George Bush Jr. since the new
millennium. This has been amplified with the establishment of the Africa Command
(AFRICOM)

US orders embassy staff out of Ivory Coast (AFP)

The United States on Sunday ordered non-emergency staff to leave Ivory Coast and
warned Americans not to travel to the West African country, which is in the grip of
growing post-election violence.

Sharia law to be tightened if Sudan splits - president (BBC)

The north of Sudan will reinforce its Islamic laws if the south secedes as a result of next
month's referendum, President Omar al-Bashir has said.

Al Qaeda Strengthening in North-West Africa (Fox)

(North Africa) Fox News has obtained video from North African security services that
shows some of the first images of Al Qaeda's growing African branch known as Al-
Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb or AQIM. This comes as the United Nations brokered
peace talks continue in New York between Morocco and Polisario.

Islamic Sudan Envisioned if South Secedes (New York Times)

(Sudan) President Omar Hassan al-Bashir promised Sunday to turn Sudan into a state
governed by Islamic law if the south chooses to secede in a referendum next month.

MP Files Motion Against U.S. Envoy (Daily Nation)

(Kenya) MPs will this week move a motion in Parliament seeking to expel US
ambassador Michael Ranneberger from Kenya.

UN condemns intimidation of staff in Ivory Coast (Associated Press)

(Ivory Coast) The top U.N. envoy in Ivory Coast on Monday condemned intimidation
tactics against U.N. personnel, saying armed men were threatening staff after the
United Nations ignored Laurent Gbagbo's demand that thousands of peacekeepers
leave the country.

Ivorian Supporters say They Will 'Fight to Death' for Gbagbo (Voice of America)
(Ivory Coast) Supporters of incumbent Ivorian president, Laurent Gbagbo, say they are
ready to fight to the death to keep him in power, while the United Nations points to
growing evidence of "massive violations of human rights" since last month's disputed
presidential election.

Guinea's Alpha Conde to be sworn in on Tuesday (AFP)

(Guinea) Guinean President-elect Alpha Conde will be sworn-in on Tuesday in
Conakry in the presence of several African leaders, bringing the curtain down on 26
years of military rule in the west African nation.

The tragedy of Algeria's 'disappeared' (The Independent)

(Algeria) US Special Forces officers from their camp near Tamanrasset are said to be
"observing" the Kabyle operation. Why not? After all, only last week Washington's top
military commander in the region, US Africa Command General David Hogg, was
showering praises on the Algerian security services for their "impressive progress and
leadership" in fighting "terrorism".

Militia in Somalia Abandons Key Positions to Radical Group (New York Times)
(Somalia) An Islamist militia abandoned several key positions in and outside this
capital late Sunday, the latest indication that it has proven the weaker in its rivalry with
the Shabab, the radical militant group that now controls much of Somalia.

The Ocampo Six are Kenyans, But Rwanda, Uganda Need to Worry (The East African)
(Pan Africa) Last Wednesday, International Criminal Court chief prosecutor Luis
Moreno-Ocampo kicked up a political storm in Kenya when he announced his intention
to charge six Kenyans with murder, rape, and other related crimes.

Zimbabwe Politics Grows More Volatile During 2010 (Voice of America)

(Zimbabwe) Zimbabwe's appears to be in for more political turmoil with talk of fresh
elections earlier this month at the conference of President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF
Party. Most Zimbabweans indicate they do not want elections next year because they
may interfere with the political stability and economic progress made since the unity
government came to power nearly two years ago.

UN News Service Africa Briefs

Full Articles on UN Website
 UN project helps West African farmers cut pesticide use, boost incomes
 Security Council calls for funding for civilian protection in eastern Chad
 Darfur mediation team calls on Sudan, rebels to attain ceasefire by year’s end
 Chief UN monitor urges all sides to ensure credible South Sudan referendum
 Rejecting call for withdrawal, Security Council extends UN mission in Côte
d’Ivoire
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPCOMING EVENTS OF INTEREST:

WHEN/WHERE: Tuesday and Wednesday, February 8-9, 2011; National Defense

Industrial Association, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, Washington, DC
WHAT: Defense, Diplomacy, and Development: Translating Policy into Operational
Capability
WHO: Keynote Speakers include ADM Michael Mullen, USN, Chairman, Joint Chiefs
of Staff; BG Simon Hutchinson, GBR, Deputy Commander, NATO Special Operations
Forces Headquarters; ADM Eric T. Olson, USN, Commander, U.S. Special Operations
Command; Gen Norton A. Schwartz, USAF, Chief of Staff, U.S. Air Force
Info: http://www.ndia.org/meetings/1880/Pages/default.aspx
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FULL ARTICLE TEXT

Obama Pursues 'Aggressive Diplomacy' to Promote Successful Referendum

(AllAfrica.com)

U.S. President Barack Obama has written to African leaders to reiterate that Sudan is a
foreign policy priority for his administration, both during the lead-up to the January 9
referendum on independence for the south, and in response to the continuing crisis in
Darfur.

"This is yet another element of an ongoing aggressive diplomatic effort with the parties
in Sudan and with its neighbors reflecting our intense interest in having a successful
referendum," White House National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said in
a statement.

"We believe that an on-time referendum is the best means of preventing the resumption
of a full-scale war between northern and southern Sudan," Hammer said.
"Over the past four months, the Administration has redoubled our efforts to support
referendum preparations and peace negotiations between the two parties."

The letter from Obama was sent to Egypt, Chad, Uganda, Kenya, Libya, Ethiopia, South
Africa, Nigeria and Rwanda, as well as the African Union, a senior White House official
told AllAfrica.

Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi are scheduled to visit
Khartoum on Tuesday for discussions with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and
southern Sudanese leader Salva Kiir aimed at resolving outstanding issues relating to
the referendum and the post-referendum period.
------------------
The United States and Africa Security Cooperation and the Africa Command
(AFRICOM) (Foreign Policy Journal)

(An excerpt of the document is provided below. For the full text visit Foreign Policy
Journal.)

Abstract

Post-Cold War United States-Africa security cooperation has been transformed from the
humanitarian efforts of President George Bush Sr. that ended with the Somalia debacle
in 1994, through the selective engagement policy of President Bill Clinton that avoided
the Rwandan civil conflict to what could be viewed as a more structured relationship
with clearly defined priorities under President George Bush Jr. since the new
millennium. This has been amplified with the establishment of the Africa Command
(AFRICOM) nearly three years ago. Against the backdrop of the September 11, 2001
terrorist attacks on the United States, different interpretations have been adduced for
these developments. Efforts towards building trusted allies towards containing
international terrorism, the quest for Africa’s natural resources, particularly oil in the
Gulf of Guinea and the desire by the United States to help transform Africa on a more
sustained developmental path have been assigned. The study appraises these
perspectives, examines the different nodes and forms of security cooperation between
the United States and Africa in the recent past and the motivating factors for the
establishment of the Africa Command (AFRICOM). It argues that the thrust of United
States interest in Africa is in conformity with classical realist interpretation, thus a
pursuit of her national interests within contemporary geo-strategic calculations.

Introduction

United States security engagement in Africa, whether historical or contemporary, could

be viewed from a strictly strategic consideration, thus intrinsically, the pursuit of its
national interest on the continent and, by extension, globally. For instance, during the
Cold War, the United States engaged herself in African affairs in the context of
superpower rivalry. The intense ideological competition between the then Soviet Union
and the United States shaped the policy choices and relations that the latter forged with
individual African governments. Indeed, some policy choices by the US within the
context of the Cold War generated antagonistic relations with the then Soviet Union,
manifested in the ideological and political entanglements in the civil conflicts in Angola
(support for Jonas Savimbi), the altercation with governments in the Horn of Africa,
particularly Somalia under Siad Barre and Ethiopia under Mengistu Haile Mariam.
There were other instances that manifested in the uncanny support for military regimes
on the continent such as Liberia under President Samuel Doe and Mobutu Sese Seko of
former Zaire. Additionally was the obnoxious ideological stance on apartheid South
Africa under then President Ronald Reagan and his associate Prime Minister Margaret
Thatcher, with the assertion that UN sponsored economic sanctions would hurt the
majority South African blacks the most, not excluding their indifference to the
apartheid regime holding on to Namibia, despite UN resolutions on the issue. The
period was thus counter-productive to Africa’s long-term interests and did not promote
regional security in terms of laying the foundations for political stability, peace and
economic development.[1]

In a realistic sense though, the United States entered Africa during the Cold War as a
new actor pursuing her superpower ambitions on the continent, since she had never
“colonized” an African territory in its “Eurocentric” manifestation. The exception was
the historical example of American nationals who, acting through the American
Colonization Society (ACS), secured land on the West Coast of Africa for the settlement
of American freed slaves in the 1820s under the presidency of James Monroe. Now
Liberia, the capital Monrovia was named reverently after the then president of the
United States. This realistically marked America’s historical relations with the
continent; yet, she was quite hesitant to intervene forcefully in Liberia during the civil
war that engulfed Liberia in the 1990s.

United States’ relations with her only African enclave therefore contrasted sharply with
those of the European powers which actually maintained prolonged foothold on the
continent. For instance, the benchmark of Franco-African relations was the enactment of
extensive strategic security pacts, even after these colonies attained formal political
independence. On the other hand, Great Britain’s security relations with its former
colonies took on a characteristically “manage your own affairs” approach. Of course,
this attitude did not rule out security assistance with various Anglophone African
countries through sponsorship and training programs for personnel in the security
services in prestigious institutions in Great Britain and elsewhere. The other colonial
powers such as Portugal unabashedly engaged their former colonies, thus
Mozambique, Angola, Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde in armed struggles against the
popular movement for political emancipation. Belgium likewise adopted political
intrigue and subterfuge in the resource-rich Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of
Congo) to overturn the popular choice of the people for political leadership and
economic emancipation, resulting in the death of Patrice Lumumba in 1960. Similarly,
French military engagement in Algeria and the British outpost in Rhodesia encountered
prolonged armed resistance, signifying examples of the unwillingness of the colonialists
to vacate settler colonies on the continent. Notwithstanding, African nationalism and
political assertiveness in various forms towards continental unity and economic
emancipation became the popular theme throughout the Cold War, though not without
the debilitating effects of superpower rivalry that often broke the front of its leadership.
------------------
US orders embassy staff out of Ivory Coast (AFP)

WASHINGTON - The United States on Sunday ordered non-emergency staff to leave

Ivory Coast and warned Americans not to travel to the West African country, which is
in the grip of growing post-election violence.

The US State Department also ordered relatives of its staffers to leave Ivory Coast,
where at least 50 people have been killed in recent days.

The US government cited a "deteriorating political and security situation" and "growing
anti-western sentiment" in the West African country.

"The State Department recommends that US citizens who are concerned about their
safety take advantage of commercial means of transportation while they are available
and while borders remain open," it added as tensions reached a boiling point in Ivory
Coast, the world's biggest cocoa producer.

Both strongman Laurent Gbagbo and his rival Alassane Ouattara claim to have won last
month's presidential vote. But while the latter has been recognized as the victor by the
international community, the incumbent is doggedly clinging to power.

The US embassy's consular section in Abidjan, meanwhile, has "temporarily curtailed

all consular services except emergency services for US citizens," the State Department
added.

"Due to drawdown of consular staff, the embassy has diminishing ability to assist US
citizens wishing to depart the country."

It added that "hostility against westerners, including US citizens, cannot be ruled out."

The State Department had authorized the departure of its non-emergency personnel
and families on Thursday, but Sunday's statement marked the first such order.

The United Nations, United States, former colonial power France, the African Union
and Ivory Coast's West African neighbors in the ECOWAS regional bloc have all
demanded that Gbagbo step aside and allow Ouattara to assume office.
Instead, there is every sign that the regime is hardening its stance.

Gbagbo ordered the 10,000-strong UN mission to leave on Saturday, accusing it of

arming rebels loyal to his rival Alassane Ouattara, but UN Secretary General Ban Ki-
moon dismissed the ultimatum and urged him to step down.

The UN peacekeeping force's determination to stay threatens to provoke a showdown

with Gbagbo's hardline supporters, but leaders of the world body said it would remain
and investigate reports of death squad killings.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay expressed concern about "the
growing evidence of massive violations of human rights" in the restive West African
country since Thursday.

More than 200 other people have also been injured over the past three days, she said in
a statement issued in Geneva, vowing "to ensure that perpetrators are held accountable
for their actions."

The US embassy was damaged by an "errant" rocket-propelled grenade during

Thursday's fighting.

Ivory Coast has been split since 2002, when a failed putsch against Gbagbo sparked
civil war, but there has been a truce since 2003.
------------------
Sharia law to be tightened if Sudan splits - president (BBC)

The north of Sudan will reinforce its Islamic laws if the south secedes as a result of next
month's referendum, President Omar al-Bashir has said.

Mr Bashir said the constitution would then be changed, making Islam the only religion,
Sharia the only law and Arabic the only official language.

Correspondents say his comments are likely to alarm thousands of non-Muslim

southerners living in the north.

They are currently protected from some of the stronger aspects of Sharia.

"If south Sudan secedes, we will change the constitution," Mr Bashir told a gathering of
his supporters in the eastern town of Gederef on Sunday.

"Sharia and Islam will be the main source for the constitution, Islam the official religion
and Arabic the official language," the president added.
The imposition of Sharia on the non-Muslim south was one of the reasons for the long
civil war, which ended when a peace deal was signed in 2005, the BBC's James Copnall
in Khartoum reports.

Under the accord, an interim constitution was drafted that removed Sharia law from
the south and also recognised Sudan's cultural and social diversity, our correspondent
says.

President Bashir said on Sunday there would be no question of this diversity when a
new constitution was drafted, if the south became independent

Senior northern officials are just starting to acknowledge publicly that South Sudan -
where most people follow traditional beliefs and Christianity - are almost certain to
choose to separate in the referendum.

Separately, Mr Bashir also commented on a recent high-profile case in which a video

posted on the internet showed a woman being flogged by police in the north.

"If she is lashed according to Sharia law, there is no investigation. Why are some people
ashamed? This is Sharia," the president said.

Human rights activists have accused the police of treating the woman in a particularly
brutal way not compatible with Islam.
------------------
Al Qaeda Strengthening in North-West Africa (Fox)

Fox News has obtained video from North African security services that shows some of
the first images of Al Qaeda's growing African branch known as Al-Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb or AQIM. This comes as the United Nations brokered peace talks
continue in New York between Morocco and Polisario. Front officials over the future of
Africa's longest running territorial dispute in the Western Sahara a region that analysts
say is increasingly becoming a hot bed of Al Qaeda activity.

A former Spanish colony in the north west of Africa, Western Sahara was annexed by
Morocco 35 years ago which led to years of violent attacks against Morocco by the main
Western Sahara independence group called The Polisario Front. This situation lasted
until a United Nations brokered cease-fire in 1991. Talks have continued ever since but
without any final agreement. Yet it's this lack of agreement which worries terrorism
analysts who say the disputed area is increasingly being used by Al Qaeda as a base for
recruiting new members and planning attacks.

Walid Phares, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in
Washington, and a Fox News terrorism analyst says "Al Qaeda is very pragmatic in its
moves. Eventually it moves like a strategic force even though it is made of small cells
and networks. In fact its aim is to reach the Atlantic from the Sahara. They spoke about
it in their chat rooms. Hence trying to offer their services to the Polisario or even
penetrating it are part of its strategy." Indeed North African security sources confirm to
Fox News that fifty-nine Polisario officials and soldiers have recently been linked to
AQIM.

Phares who has just released a book called ""The Coming Revolution: Struggle for
Freedom in the Middle East " says that given the fact that AQIM has already
successfully penetrated the bordering countries such as Mali, Mauritania and Niger that
it has "certainly showed interest in moving its cells or recruiting in the Sahara. It tells
the people of the area that it will fight Morocco's presence and stand by them. In fact it
is trying to install its own bases. It aims at creating something between a Somalia and a
Yemen in the whole area."

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb which was founded in Algeria has a long and deadly
record of attacks in the region. In 2007 they were behind a double suicide bombing in
the Algerian capital which killed 41 people including 17 United Nations workers.
Reports also describe AQIM being behind a failed attempt to sink US ships off
Gibraltar, bomb the US embassy in Mali, as well as numerous kidnappings of foreign
nationals and deadly attacks against countries in the region.

Indeed a recently leaked U.S. cable released by wikileaks echoed such concerns asking
embassies in the so called "Sahel" region to be on the look out for "Al Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb and other terrorist-related individuals and organizations." It went
onto ask for reports on "plans and intentions for operations against U.S. or allied
personnel or interests. -- Links to weapons of mass destruction or related materials" and
" Indications that international terrorist groups are seeking to take advantage of
political, ethnic, tribal, or religious conflict."

Steve Emerson a leading terrorism analyst and Executive Director of The Investigative
Project on Terrorism (IPT) tells Fox News that he believes the Administration has not
underestimated AQIM and that they are getting up to speed very fast on them.
Emerson says that AQIM is definitely a threat to the West and to the US having
targeted American interests in the last year alone. He says "It's a new war front for the
US and unless aggressively attacked in the beginning, it has the potential to grow like
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula."

Phares, like Emerson agrees that the administration is aware of the threat but is
concerned that the overall U.S. national counter terrorism strategy "lacks the perception
of AQIM's strategic threat to the whole area in terms of coordination and recruitment."
He says "there is concern about what AQIM is doing but not about what it can and will
do across the region." He says that "the projection capacity of our national security
analysis is limited because it does not factor in the power of an ideology. It does not
recognize the existence of an ideology. It doesn't name it to begin with. I call it a
systemic failure in understanding, thus estimating al Qaeda's strategies."

While the United Nations peace talks continues into a second day sources
knowledgeable on the negotiations worry that a final peace deal is still a long way off.
Polisario has said that if they do fail AQIM will take advantage, but Walid Phares says
"this is a pressure used tactically by the armed group." The Fox News terrorism analyst
concludes that "Morocco is arguing that AQIM is moving into the area regardless.
Hence UN talks must continue anyway for the benefit of peace, but AQIM will continue
to penetrate into the Western Sahara, and even more if a Polisario state is established.
These are the facts stated by al Qaeda."
------------------
Islamic Sudan Envisioned if South Secedes (New York Times)

JUBA, Sudan — President Omar Hassan al-Bashir promised Sunday to turn Sudan into
a state governed by Islamic law if the south chooses to secede in a referendum next
month.

“We’ll change the Constitution,” he said in a televised speech. “Shariah and Islam will
be the main source for the Constitution, Islam the official religion and Arabic the official
language.”

The comments were some of Mr. Bashir’s strongest words to date seeming to
acknowledge the likelihood of an independent southern Sudanese state and outlining
his vision for the northern half, which would stay under his control.

While northern Sudan is already largely governed by Islamic law, or Shariah, an interim
constitution adopted as part of a 2005 peace agreement recognized the country’s ethnic
and religious diversity. That agreement ended generations of civil war between the
predominantly Arab and Muslim north and the mainly Christian and animist south.

The interim constitution expires next year, and with it the constraints and obligations of
the peace agreement.

“If South Sudan secedes, we will change the Constitution, and at that time there will be
no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity,” Mr. Bashir said.

Southerners are expected to overwhelmingly support secession in the vote, which

begins on Jan. 9.

The government has sought to keep the country united, but in recent days senior
officials have seemed resigned to the inevitability of a split. “We must not deceive
ourselves or cling to dreams,” Nafi Ali Nafi, a senior member of the governing party,
said last week.
The strong words were not out of keeping for Mr. Bashir, who faces international
economic sanctions and has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war
crimes and genocide in Darfur, in Sudan’s west.

“The incendiary comments are no surprise,” said Eliza Griswold, an expert on conflict
and human rights at the New America Foundation. “Bashir relishes the role of standing
up to the West, and the south’s secession gives him the chance to pander to his base in
Sudan and beyond.”

But some analysts feared his comments presaged a future of repression for non-
Muslims and southerners who remain in the north.

Mr. Bashir faces his own political obstacles, in addition to the indictment and pressure
from the West.

Last week, an American diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks quoted Luis Moreno-
Ocampo, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, as saying that Mr.
Bashir had smuggled $9 billion out of Sudan. The government dismissed the allegation
as “propaganda.”

Also last week, a member of Mr. Bashir’s party publicly criticized him for misleading
the country, and Sudan’s former prime minister said the referendum signaled the end
of the current political era.
------------------
MP Files Motion Against U.S. Envoy (Daily Nation)

Nairobi — MPs will this week move a motion in Parliament seeking to expel US
ambassador Michael Ranneberger from Kenya.

Imenti North MP Silas Ruteere has filed the motion, which could be prioritised for
debate this week by the House Business Committee.

"We must ensure this man (Mr Ranneberger) goes before we break for Christmas,"
Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni said on Sunday. The US envoy is accused of meddling in
the country's internal affairs.

Some MPs are said to be infuriated by America's move to slap a blanket ban on
members of the Parliament's Finance, Trade and Planning Committee after they
recommended the re-opening of Charterhouse Bank.

Mr Ranneberger claims the bank is involved in money laundering and tax evasion.
One of the MPs on the committee is said to have been turned back at the Jomo Kenyatta
International Airport in Nairobi when he attempted to travel to the US about three
weeks ago.

Contacted for comment on the impending Motion, Mr Ranneberger said: "I don't know
(about it)."

Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo, a member of the committee, has confirmed that he was aware
"up to six MPs have had their visas revoked."

"I am aware one of us was denied a visa to the US about one to two weeks ago," he said.

The US ambassador has been on the spotlight in recent weeks over a number of actions
and utterances regarding the state of affairs in the country.

Mr Ranneberger first ran into trouble last month after whistle-blower website
WikiLeaks released cables he wrote to his superiors in Washington, describing Kenya as
flourishing swamp of corruption.

Pumping a lot of money

In an angry rejoinder, Government Spokesman Alfred Mutua hit back, accusing a

foreign power, suspected to be the US, of pumping a lot of money to youth
organisations across the country to topple the Coalition Government.

Mr Ranneberger later denied that the US Government planned to overthrow the

government, saying the money channelled by USaid was aimed at empowering the
youth.

More secret cables on Kenya emerged on December 9 where Mr Rannebeger accused

President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga of doing nothing to end impunity.

The two principals hit back at the US envoy during their respective speeches on
Jamhuri Day.

Mr Odinga said Kenya does not deserve people masquerading as friends during the
day, but turning into enemies at night.

The president on his part dared the schemers to try and topple his leadership,
promising they would face the full force of his administration.
------------------
UN condemns intimidation of staff in Ivory Coast (Associated Press)
ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast — The top U.N. envoy in Ivory Coast on Monday condemned
intimidation tactics against U.N. personnel, saying armed men were threatening staff
after the United Nations ignored Laurent Gbagbo's demand that thousands of
peacekeepers leave the country.

A spokesman for Gbagbo in Paris on Monday said he doubted soldiers or those

supporting Gbagbo would be involved in such tactics.

Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council called on all parties to recognize opposition
leader Alassane Ouattara as Ivory Coast's president.

A resolution adopted unanimously Monday by the council stepped up pressure on

Gbagbo to concede defeat, which he has refused to do. The resolution urges all Ivorian
parties and stakeholders "to respect the will of the people and the outcome of the
election" in view of the recognition of Ouattara by the African Union and the West
African regional group ECOWAS "in order to ensure peace" in Ivory Coast.

The United Nations has also vowed to continue its mission despite the order from
Gbagbo for its peacekeepers to leave.

"Armed men have been coming to the personal houses of United Nations employees,
asking them to leave and searching their houses under the pretext of looking for arms,"
U.N. Special Representative Choi Young-jin said at a news conference Monday in
Abidjan.

Toussaint Alain, an adviser for Gbagbo, said he didn't believe soldiers or people close to
Gbagbo would carry out such acts.

"The U.N. is trying to manipulate public opinion and is looking for a pretext for a
military intervention," he told The AP in Paris.

Gbagbo's demand that peacekeepers leave has raised fears that U.N. personnel and
other foreigners could be targeted in violence. Over the weekend, masked gunmen
opened fire on the U.N. base in the West African nation, though no one from the global
body was harmed in the attack. Two military observers were wounded in another
attack.

The U.S. State Department on Sunday ordered most of its personnel to leave Ivory
Coast because of the deteriorating security situation and growing anti-Western
sentiment.

The U.N. says more than 50 people have been killed in recent days, and that it has
received hundreds of reports of people being abducted from their homes at night by
armed assailants in military uniform. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi
Pillay said there is growing evidence of "massive violations of human rights."

Alain, the Gbagbo adviser, said he doubted if the allegations of kidnappings were true,
but if they were, they were being carried out by supporters of his opponent, disguised
in military uniforms.

In a statement read on state television Saturday, a Gbagbo spokeswoman said that 9,000
U.N. peacekeepers and another 900 French troops supporting them were to leave
immediately. Gbagbo accused the U.N. mission of backing his opponent, Ouattara, and
arming rebels who support him.

The U.N. and the international community recognize Ouattara as the victor of last
month's presidential runoff vote. The U.N. had been invited by the country itself to
supervise the vote and certify the outcome following a peace accord after Ivory Coast's
2002-2003 civil war.

About 800 U.N. peacekeepers are protecting the hotel from which Ouattara is trying to
govern the country. They are in turn encircled by Gbagbo's troops. On Monday, the
U.N. said that the hotel had been completely blockaded and that people inside had not
been able to get needed medication.

Meanwhile, the European Union said Monday it would impose an assets freeze and a
visa ban on Gbagbo and his wife after a Sunday deadline for him to step down elapsed.

Gbagbo's adviser said Europe should not interfere.

"Europe must understand that this is not the colonial period," said Alain, Gbagbo's
adviser for EU relations. "Or if Europe wants to colonize Ivory Coast, if Europe wants to
subdue Ivory Coast, then let's be clear about it and we'll become European citizens."

The United States is also prepared to impose targeted sanctions on Gbagbo, his
immediate family and his inner circle.

Sanctions, though, have typically failed to reverse illegal power grabs in Africa in the
past.

Ivory Coast was once an economic hub because of its role as the world's top cocoa
producer. The civil war split the country in a rebel-controlled north and a loyalist south.
While the country officially reunited in a 2007 peace deal, Ouattara still draws his
support from the northern half of the country where he was born while Gbagbo's power
base is in the south.
Gbagbo claimed victory in the presidential election only after his allies threw out half a
million ballots from Ouattara strongholds in the north, a move that infuriated residents
there who have long felt they are treated as foreigners in their own country by
southerners.

National identity remains at the heart of the divide. The question of who would even be
allowed to vote in this long-awaited election took years to settle as officials tried to
differentiate between Ivorians with roots in neighboring countries and foreigners.

Ouattara had himself been prevented from running in previous elections after
accusations that he was not Ivorian, and that he was of Burkinabe origin.
------------------
Ivorian Supporters say They Will 'Fight to Death' for Gbagbo (Voice of America)

Supporters of incumbent Ivorian president, Laurent Gbagbo, say they are ready to fight
to the death to keep him in power, while the United Nations points to growing evidence
of "massive violations of human rights" since last month's disputed presidential
election.

In Ivory Coast, incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refuses to cede power to Alassane
Ouattara, who was recognized by the United Nations and much of the international
community as the winner of the November 28 presidential run-off.

The United Nations is reporting a wave of killings and abductions since the poll. U.N.
High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay issued a statement Sunday saying
more than 50 people have been killed and more than 200 injured in violence since
Thursday.

The announcement came a day after the United Nations said it would not abide by Mr.
Gbagbo's demand that U.N. peacekeepers withdraw from the country.

Africa security analyst J. Peter Pham of the New York-based National Committee on
American Foreign Policy says the situation is entering a critical phase.

"On a strategic level, it certainly does not help Gbagbo to create the chaos which might
justify an armed international intervention," said Pham. "In fact, his endgame might be
to maintain the political pressure but actually stop short of the threshold that would
provoke an intervention. Now, whether he can maintain that balance, I think, is the key
question for the next several days and weeks."

Regional efforts at mediation and threats of international sanctions have done little to
ease the political gridlock that looks increasingly close to plunging the country back
into a civil war that in 2002-2003 split the country between a rebel-held north and a
government-held south.
International Crisis Group's Ivory Coast analyst, Rinaldo Depagne, says there is no
negotiation on the horizon and the situation could disintegrate into an intense conflict
in the days, weeks or months ahead. He says there is not much to negotiate, other than
the departure of Gbabgo, who has carried out what Depagne calls an institutional coup
d'etat.

Depagne said failed official disarmament and subsequent unofficial rearmament on

both sides since the 2007 Ouagadougou peace accords makes current tensions all the
more dangerous.

A spokesman for U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said that the U.N. mission in
Ivory Coast will fulfill its mandate and warned that "any attack on U.N. forces will be
an attack on the international community and those responsible for these actions will be
held accountable."

The U.N. Security Council is set to meet to discuss the mandate of the U.N. mission in
Ivory Coast, which is to expire December 31st and currently charges the peacekeeping
mission to protect civilians. Ouattara's camp has called for the U.N. mission's mandate
to be renewed and strengthened.

The European Union has agreed to ban Mr. Gbagbo and 18 of his allies. ECOWAS and
the African Union have suspended Ivory Coast. The United States and Canada have
threatened sanctions.

The United States has advised Americans not to travel to Ivory Coast and ordered non-
emergency staff out of the country, citing the deteriorating situation and what it called
"growing anti-western sentiment."

Original electoral commission results said Mr. Ouattara won the run-off election with 54
percent of the votes, but the constitutional court, which is led by a Gbagbo ally,
annulled 10 percent of ballots as fraudulent and proclaimed Mr. Gbagbo the winner
with 51 percent.

Both men have set up rival governments and have the support of rival armed forces.
Gbagbo controls state media and government buildings under the protection of
government troops, while Ouattara's government is based out of an Abidjan hotel
under the protection of U.N. peacekeepers and former rebel fighters.
------------------
Guinea's Alpha Conde to be sworn in on Tuesday (AFP)

CONAKRY – Guinean President-elect Alpha Conde will be sworn-in on Tuesday in

Conakry in the presence of several African leaders, bringing the curtain down on 26
years of military rule in the west African nation.
At least eight African presidents are to attend attend the ceremony, according to a
government source.

They are Senegal's Abdoulaye Wade, Mali's Amadou Toumani Toure, Burkina Faso's
Blaise Compaore, Sierra Leone's Ernest Bai Koroma, Liberia's Ellen Johnson Sirleaf,
Gabon's Ali Bongo, Angola's Eduardo Dos Santos and Jacob Zuma of South Africa.

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, head of the ECOWAS (Economic Community of

West African states) will be represented by former president Olusegun Obasanjo, the
source added.

The swearing-in ceremony is scheduled to begin at 1100 GMT at the People's Palace,
headquarters of the National Assembly which was dissolved after a 2008 coup.

The event will be broadcast live on radio and state television, according to the
information ministry.

In Conakry preparations for the celebration were underway with squads of women
sweeping the area around the People's Palace.

Alpha Conde, 72, from the Malinke ethnic group, has opposed all regimes since
Guinea's independence from France in 1958.

He won 52.5 percent of the votes against rival Cellou Dalein Diallo to become the first
democratically elected president in the country which has known half a century of
despotism and military rule.

Guinea's interim leader Sekouba Konate stepped down last week and urged the army to
back Conde and remain apolitical.
------------------
The tragedy of Algeria's 'disappeared' (The Independent)

They are all over the wall of Naseera Dutour's office, in their hundreds, in their
thousands. There are cemeteries of them, bearded, clean shaven, the youth and the
elderly of Algeria, veiled women, a smiling girl with a ribbon in her hair, in colour for
the most part; the bloodbath of the 1990s was a post-technicolor age so the blood came
bright red and soaked right through the great revolution that finally conquered French
colonial power.

There's a powerful irony that Naseera's cramped offices – "SOS Disparu", it's called, in
conscious imitation of the searches for the "disappeared" of Chile and Argentina –
should be on the ground floor of an old pied noir apartment, beyond a carved wooden
door and patterned tiles, at No.3 rue Ghar Djebilet, just off Didouch Mourad St.
Didouch, too, was a martyr – of the first revolution, the one we were supposed to
remember in Algiers this month – rather than all those faces on Naseera's walls. For
Naseera, too, has a martyr to mourn.

No talk at Algeria's anti-colonialism conference of the 6,000 men and women who died
under torture at the hands of the Algerian police and army and hooded security men in
the 1990s. For across at Sidi Fredj – yes, just up the coast where the French landed in
1830 – le pouvoir was parading a clutch of ancient ex-presidents from the mystical lands
of the anti-colonial struggle, to remind us of Algeria's primary role in the battle against
world imperialism. There was old Ahmed Ben Bella – more white-haired skeleton than
Algeria's first leader, coup-ed out of power in 1965 (although they didn't mention that).
There was poor old Dr Kenneth Kaunda, who mercilessly tried to sing a song under the
wondrous eyes of Thabo Mbeki. And then there were the Vietnamese whose victory at
Dien Bien Phu taught the FLN (National Liberation Front) that they could beat the
French here, which they did in 1962 at a cost of, say, one and a half million "martyrs".

In theory, this was all staged to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the UN General
Assembly's Resolution 1514, which demanded the right of independence to all
colonised people (special emphasis in Algiers, of course, on the Palestinians and the
Sahrawi refugees). But the real reason le pouvoir – "the authorities" – gathered these
elderly ex-presidents in Algeria was to build a new foundation – wood or concrete I
haven't yet decided – over the mass graves of the 250,000 "martyrs" of another conflict,
the barbarous civil war of 1990-98, if indeed it has yet ended. Le pouvoir has invented a
wonderful new expression for this bloodbath. It's called Algeria's "National Tragedy",
as if the government's suspension of elections and the brutal, family-slaughtering,
throat-cutting war with the savage Islamists of the Armed Islamic Group, the GIA, was
a Shakespearean play, Othello perhaps, or Hamlet in which, I suppose, Ben Bella stares
at his own skull. More like Titus Andronicus, if you ask me.

Naseera Dutour's brave little team of girl volunteers tap away on their laptops, listing
yet more families who seek the remains of those victims of the security forces for whom
all hope is gone. The cops drop by the office from time to time for a spot of harassment,
but they have no need to worry. Amina Beuslimane, a pretty 28-year-old civil servant,
supposedly taking snapshots of cemeteries and blown-up buildings – perhaps for
evidence of government crimes – was arrested by security police on 13 December 1994.
Her family were told they would not see her again and she apparently ended up in the
special interrogation and rape centre at the Chateauneuf barracks. The butchers of
Chateauneuf can relax, however, because a post-war referendum that granted an
amnesty to the "Islamists" also purged the security forces of their crimes. And besides,
Amina's mum died a few days ago, so there's one less memory to worry about.

I walked through the laneways of Algiers for several days, in places a foreigner would
not have survived 16 years ago. In the Casbah, I visited the spot where poor Olivier
Quemener, a French television journalist whose camera sticks I had carried the previous
day, was shot dead by bearded "Islamists" in 1994, his reporter colleague found lying
wounded beside him, weeping over his dead friend. Compared with all the civilians
beheaded and raped by the GIA outside Algiers, I suppose Quemener was spared the
very worst. As for the tough old cops of the 1990s who used to blast water through
men's throats until their stomachs burst, most must be dead themselves, a few en
retrait, as they say.

And some of the rapists from Chateauneuf, who knows, through trails of promotion,
may have been guarding the equally old conference delegates at Sidi Fredj. And by the
way, Jacques Vergès was there, he whose wife was so cruelly treated by the French and
who defended the Nazi butcher Klaus Barbie. Ironies pile up here like old bones. And
yes, the government won the civil war, didn't they, and anyway who would have
wanted the bearded Islamic Salvation Front to have ruled back in the 1990s, imposing
sharia law and veiling women and murdering every opponent and, besides, is not the
pouvoir the real inheritor of the old National Liberation Front, the FLN? In Algeria,
they have a phrase for these arguments. They call it "heating up old soup".

And so art comes to the rescue of memory. There is a spring of new books being
published in Algeria, novels of great richness and beauty and sadness, the only way
authors can confront those mass graves of the 1990s. A veiled woman in a bright new
Algiers bookshop advises me to buy two of them. In Amin Zaoui's Bed of the Impure
Virgin, old florist Momou – plying his trade, yes, on the same Didouche Mourad St –
laments the 1973 murder of his old poet friend Jean Sénac. Believing that he will portray
Senac in a movie, Momou – he loves only Algiers, flowers, wine and poetry – slowly
goes mad, reciting Senac's verse in the streets and tea-shops, ending in a small city
courtyard beneath a tree where he quotes night and day the words of Senac, a real
anarchist and poet and friend (yes, again!) of that old phantom Ben Bella who made his
return from the grave last week. But the courtyard is used for prayers by the Islamists of
the 1990s and because Senac was a "homo" (their words) and because this is against
Islam and because Momou might have been Senac's lover, they string up the crazy
florist from the tree, and his body hangs there for three days and three nights as the
bearded men say their dawn prayers beneath his corpse. Do I smell Camus here?

And then there's Adlène Meddi's novel of Algiers today in which two old soldiers
(graduates of Algeria's Cherchell Military College) reminisce of the 1990s and one of
them tells the other of a nightmare experience. In the Arab world, novels are often
fiction dusted with truth. In Algeria, they are truth cloaked in fiction. Read then with
appropriate horror Meddi's description of the fate of an Algerian army commandant,
Djaafar Rahb, commander of the 2nd Armored Division at Tlegema, who deserts to the
"terrorists" and is caught and tied to a tree. The army commander arrives from
Constantine by helicopter, the soldiers are lined up, the man's wife and two children are
brought to the scene and the soldiers pour petrol on Rahb and set him on fire, the cadets
vomiting at the stench of carbonised flesh.
What lies behind such writing? Meddi's hero is Sjo, a retired cop who goes back to work
to pay off his debts and starts a murder enquiry that brings back all the ghosts of the
1990s. His journalist friend Ras, still mourning his professional colleagues who had
their throats slit by the GIA, walks with him down an Algiers street, still fearful of the
past. "Ras walked like Djo. One eye in front, the other behind his head... Followed by
death for years, he had developed a strong sense of prudence and impending disaster.
Everything leaves its traces..."

And that is exactly how le pouvoir feels and acts today, one confident eye to the future,
one terrified eye to the past, acting with prudence and with fear that the nightmares of
the 1990s may yet return. The earlier, great anti-colonial struggle of which all Algerian
delegates spoke was fought against the French. Yet not once was the word "France"
mentioned at the Sidi Fredj conference. It cannot be, for while delegates were trucked
off to the concrete ghastliness of the 1954-62 "Martyr's Monument" to the anti-French
war of independence, another little journey – by a certain Abdelaziz Belkhadem, special
representative to President Bouteflika, who couldn't quite make it to the conference –
said a lot more about modern Algeria.

Having stunned delegates with a speech of mind-numbing boredom ("undeniable

progress after the heavy burdens of the colonial era", etc, etc), he sped off to the gaunt
sepulchre of the newly restored French cathedral of Our Lady of Africa, consecrated at
the height of French power in 1872, which still towers gloomily over the city of Algiers.
Desecrated by Islamists, broken by a more recent earthquake, the whole place, once a
symbol of French Catholic domination of Muslim Algeria, has been magnificently
patched up and re-painted and re-tiled at a cost of more than £4m by the European
Union, the French Embassy and numerous Algerian benefactors – and reopened,
heritage-style, as a monument to coexistence. And there the man who had just
condemned the heavy burdens of colonialism stood with the French to commemorate
this great church – and refused to read his speech.

Because, for so it was hinted, he didn't think the French had given the Algerians enough
credit for the restoration? Or because he was standing next to another ghost, the brave
ex-archbishop of Algiers, Monseigneur Henri Teissier, he who received the phone call
on 21 May 1996 that the seven monks of Tibherine – now immortalised on film – had
been decapitated? "Three of their heads were hanging from a tree near a petrol station,"
he told me then. "The other four heads were lying on the grass beneath." Now the
French suspect the Algerian army tried to free the monks from their GIA captors, killed
them by mistake and covered up their disaster by burying the bullet-riddled bodies and
leaving their heads behind as another GIA "crime".

The next Catholic edifice to be dusted off will be the basilica of Saint Augustine at
Annaba. For, like it or not, the French have fallen in love with Algeria again – and the
Algerians have fallen in love with the profits of a new relationship with France. Former
French prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin has just been here to support long-term
industrial projects – a new Renault factory is soon to open on the outskirts of Algiers –
and Claude Guéant has been chatting up President Bouteflika on behalf of Nicolas
Sarkozy. And, now that France can join in the famous "struggle against terror", ex-
General Christian Quesnot has been visiting, while the Élysée has been busily handing
over maps of French colonial minefields to the Algerian army. French and Algerian
chiefs of staff regularly talk on the phone. Can this new affair last? In Blida, the ancient
guerrilla fighters are trying to persuade the mayor to rename local streets after the
seven Algerians killed by French troops in a July 1961 anti-French demonstration. Other
guardians of the war – the one before the "National Tragedy", of course – have been
moving the grisly old French guillotine to the Tlemcen museum so that "the youth of
Algeria realise that their independence came not as a gift but at a price". In his last
interview, the surviving French servant of this infernal machine explained the
importance of speed when decapitating Algerians – for if the victim struggled, the blade
might not cut his neck and it would be necessary to finish the job with a knife.

And all the while, the guns can be heard from Tizi Ouzou. Yes, sure enough, the
Islamists are still out there, the GIA having long ago morphed into "al-Qa'ida in the
Maghreb", currently fighting off a division of Algerian troops beyond the Berber capital,
subject to a rattisage of armoured vehicles and helicopter attacks, the villages marooned
without food and with all local mobile phones shut down by the government. "Twelve
terrorists killed", a headline reads in Al-Moujahed.

And where have we heard that before? Why, in Iraq, of course. And in Afghanistan
today. And throughout the "National Tragedy". Only "terrorists", mark you. The army
is rumoured to have killed Abdelmalek Droukdel (alias Abu Mousaab Abdelouadoud),
al-Qa'ida's top man in Algeria, and thus, according to the daily Liberte, "the operation ...
constitutes a turning-point in the anti-terrorist struggle". But we've heard all this before
too, after the government killed the "monster" Antan Zouabia and after they shot
Droukdel's predecessor Nabil Sahrawi. No "embeds" with the Algerian army of course.

And if rumour is correct, there's every good reason for this: because US Special Forces
officers from their camp near Tamanrasset are said to be "observing" the Kabyle
operation. Why not? After all, only last week Washington's top military commander in
the region, US Africa Command General David Hogg, was showering praises on the
Algerian security services for their "impressive progress and leadership" in fighting
"terrorism". He wants more co-ordination with neighbouring Arab states – which is
why Tunisia's top intelligence spook, one of Tunisian dictator Ben Ali's most trusted
acolytes, turned up to talk to his Algerian opposite number this week.

And what, I asked Naseera Dutour, did she think when she heard US officers praising
the security services who tortured and killed so many Algerians during the civil war?
She pulls out an old photograph of her 21-year old son Amin, kidnapped on 31 January
1997 (he would be 35 today), never seen again, and holds it to her bosom like a shield.
She speaks in French but only one word escapes her lips, loudly and with great
emotion. "Scandale!"
------------------
Militia in Somalia Abandons Key Positions to Radical Group (New York Times)

MOGADISHU, Somalia — An Islamist militia abandoned several key positions in and

outside this capital late Sunday, the latest indication that it has proven the weaker in its
rivalry with the Shabab, the radical militant group that now controls much of Somalia.

Fighters loyal to the militia, Hizbul Islam, controlled large swaths of territory in
southern and central Somalia, including in Mogadishu, but were steadily losing ground
to the Shabab. Both groups were united in the fight against the weak transitional
government and the forces of the African Union Mission in Somalia but had a different
political agenda and leadership.

“The Hizbul Islam forces left our neighborhood around 4 to 5 p.m. today,” said
Mohamed Awale, a resident in the Wardhigley neighborhood, an area previously
controlled by Hizbul Islam. “I don’t know where they have gone. I think, they might
either join the Shabab or leave with their guns.”

A senior commander of Hizbul Islam in southwestern Somalia near the border with
Ethiopia announced Sunday that “his fighters in the town of Luuq have united with the
Shabab.”

“The Hizbul Islam fighters here are officially united with our brothers of the Shabab in
the cause of God,” said the senior commander, Sheik Farhan Abdi Ciilmooge.

Hizbul Islam and the Shabab are two of the most powerful insurgent groups in Somalia
and were once closely allied.

The Shabab, the most fearsome insurgent group in Somalia and an affiliate of Al Qaeda,
have been systematically attracting fighters from Hizbul Islam and took over several
key towns without a fight.

Two weeks ago, the Shabab attacked Hizbul Islam forces in Buur Hakaba, about 110
miles south of the capital. The Shabab had demanded the rival group stop collecting a
“tax” from public transport vehicles going to Baidoa, a main Shabab stronghold. After
days of intense gun battles, during which dozens of fighters from each side were killed,
the Shabab took over the town.
------------------
The Ocampo Six are Kenyans, But Rwanda, Uganda Need to Worry (The East African)
Nairobi — Last Wednesday, International Criminal Court chief prosecutor Luis
Moreno-Ocampo kicked up a political storm in Kenya when he announced his intention
to charge six Kenyans with murder, rape, and other related crimes.

The intended charges arise from the violence that followed the disputed 2007 elections.
Nearly 1,300 people died and more than 500,000 fled their homes in the violence.

The six are Henry Kosgey, Minister for Industrialisation; Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Finance Uhuru Kenyatta; William Ruto, suspended Education Minister;
Secretary to the Cabinet Francis Muthaura, former police chief Mohammed Hussein Ali
and Joshua arap Sang, a journalist with Kass FM, a community radio based in the Rift
Valley town of Eldoret that broadcasts in the Kalenjin language.

In the peace deal that ended the violence and resulted in a power-sharing coalition
government between President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, it was
agreed that its perpetrators would face justice in Kenya or at the ICC in The Hague.

However, Kenyan MPs shot down any attempt to set up a local tribunal. Now, the same
legislators who rejected a local solution to the Kenyan situation want the government to
withdraw from the Rome Statute that created the ICC.

Ocampo's release of the names of what has quickly become known in Kenya as "The
Ocampo Six," couldn't have come at a worse time for the Kenya political class.

It points to an ongoing but unspoken, fundamental shift in power in Kenya that could
fracture the political elite and dynasties that have ruled the country over the past 47
years.

"What is so interesting to me in the heat and noise of the ICC's announcement is the
reaction of the political class; the Ocampo Six being named, though anticipated for
weeks now, somehow seems to come as a surprise," said Martin Kimani, a writer, in a
post to a listserve that circulates among Kenyan intellectuals, "A surprise to power that
has been so insular and free of challenge that its owners are unable to believe that
control could ever leave their hands, or that any process against them could possibly
succeed."

In the past two weeks, US diplomatic cables leaked by the whistleblower site Wikileaks
have revealed scathing criticism of the Kenyan leadership.

Kenya is referred to as a "swamp of corruption" and the Cabinet as easily being Africa's
most corrupt, and all them crooked. The cables portray a country with a political system
partly fuelled by drug money.
The leaks also demonstrate an elaborate plan to break the political elite's grip on power
by fanning a democratic revolution by the youth.

America's ambassador in Kenya, Michael Ranneberger, speaks of how the "culture of

impunity" perpetuated by Kenya's political and economic elite that links directly to
President Kibaki and Raila, continues to frustrate genuine reforms, warning that this
could lead the country back into a civil war situation in 2012.

"While the culture of impunity and the grip of the old guard political elite on the levers
of state power and resources remain largely intact, hairline fractures are developing in
their edifice which -- if we continue to work them intensely -- will develop into broader
fractures and open up the potential for a peaceful process of implementation of
fundamental reforms," he wrote.

This stung both President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga to attack Ranneberger and
what they termed American hypocrisy.

Ocampo's list and the WikiLeaks revelations have together undermined the collective
Kenyan political class and, more shocking, revealed that the Americans are working on
encouraging a total different crop of youthful leaders to oust the old guard.

The WikiLeaks cables, in particular, blew apart a common assumption in politics -- that
Prime Minister Raila was, somehow, the blue-eyed boy of the West, particularly the
Americans, and their diplomatic machines were all primed to ensure that he becomes
president in 2012.

However, the US cables surprised many when they put Raila and Kibaki in the same
boat as patrons of corruption.

In addition, though Ocampo said the ICC was not going after Kibaki and Raila because
it did not have a mandate to prosecute those who might have "political responsibility,"
in the same breath he said that if indeed that was the standard, then the two men would
be in the ICC noose.

Obsevers though, consider that the inclusion of Muthaura, Kibaki's right hand man
with whom he has a special bond, was slapping a charge on Kibaki by proxy. Likewise,
for Raila, whose right hand man in the 2007 elections was Ruto (although they have
now fallen out), and whose place seems to have been taken by Kosgey, was equally
repudiated by having his close allies on the list.

Indeed, many MPs on the Kibaki side of the Kenyan divide have lately been arguing
that Raila, who called for "mass action" following the election dispute, should be
dragged to The Hague. On the other hand, the Raila camp is arguing that Kibaki, who
they say stole the election and thereby caused the violence, should be taken off to The
Hague.

Ocampo's list, and the WikiLeaks cables, therefore, could limit the ability of the Kenyan
political dynasty to maintain its grip on power by handing over to an anointed
successor.

Unlike its East African Community partners, Kenya's politics feels like a monarchy.
Raila is the son of Kenya's first vice president, and the father of the country's opposition
politics, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.

Uhuru is the son of the country's founding president, Jomo Kenyatta, whose vice
president for a while was Odinga.

Kibaki, who won't be eligible to stand in 2012 because of the two-term limit, has his son
Jimmy Kibaki and daughter Judy Kibaki angling to join politics -- one of them will
possibly inherit his Othaya constituency. Raila has been grooming his son Fidel to join
politics, and currently he is his father's fixer, and has been in the news doing deals with
fringe political groups.

If the ICC and the intentions of the Americans revealed in the leaked cables damage this
political elite, it could scuttle their attempt to build a political dynasty. Some analysts
say that would be a good thing, because it would "finally free Kenya."

But other presidential palaces and State Houses in East Africa should worry too. For
there is a pattern in the ICC indictments. Farther north, Sudanese President Omar al
Bashir has been indicted by the ICC for crimes against humanity in the western Darfur
region.

In DR Congo, warlords Jean Pierre-Bemba, Thomas Lubanga, Germain Katanga, and

Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui, are currently being tried at the ICC for war crimes.

Northern Uganda rebel Joseph Kony, who heads the brutal Lord's Resistance Army,
which is now a roving bandit force sowing terror from Southern Sudan to the Central
African Republic, has also been indicted. Kony was indicted with nearly all of his
military command; his deputy commanders Vincent Otti, Okot Odhiambo, Dominic
Ongwen, and like their boss, remain at large. Another, Raska Lukwiya, died in August
2006.

There has been, and there continues to be pressure by international groups to have
Ugandan officials and military officers tried in the ICC for war crimes in eastern DRC.
Between 1997 and 2008, the armies from the two protagonists occupied, or made
frequent military invasions into eastern DRC.
They are partly blamed for the direct and indirect death of, going by conservative
estimates, 3.9 million Congolese.

Humanitarian organisations put the fugure at 5.4 million, but critics say this number
has been inflated by aid agencies to attract funding.

As one observer put it: "If the ICC has gone for six Kenyans for the death of just over
1,200 people and the displacement of 500,000; and Bashir is indicted for the death of
about 250,000, it becomes difficult to continue ignoring calls to bring Rwandan
President Paul Kagame and Uganda's Yoweri Museveni to book for the death of 5
million."

The observer also noted that "Burundi, where tens of thousands of people were killed in
much the same circumstances as in Kenya, should also be a country of interest to the
ICC."
------------------
Zimbabwe Politics Grows More Volatile During 2010 (Voice of America)

Zimbabwe's appears to be in for more political turmoil with talk of fresh elections
earlier this month at the conference of President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF Party.
Most Zimbabweans indicate they do not want elections next year because they may
interfere with the political stability and economic progress made since the unity
government came to power nearly two years ago.

Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic
Change have been discussing elections in the final months of 2010. Much of the talk on
the streets of Harare is very different from the noise coming from political leaders.

Blessings Sibanda works for a Harare company that sells agricultural supplies. He said
that for him and many others, 2010 was one of the better years since Zimbabwe's
political and economic crisis began a decade ago.

"We have seen a little improvement, increasing capacity and seen it in government
where revenues have gone up to a point where government has given salary increases
for next year, which means the festive season is going to be better, merrier," said
Sibanda.

He said with a measure of economic stability many people now have more disposable
incomes and will be able to buy extras for their families during holiday period,
especially food. He and others say the talk of elections is worrying.

"The only damper will be after this festive season [if] we go into election mode and it
will scuttle some of the benefits we have seen from the stabilization," said Sibanda.
Earlier in the year, Tsvangirai and Mugabe were getting on much better than at the end
of the year.

In September, in Johannesburg, Tsvangirai described the slow progress and many

frustrations of the unity government, but said people should remember the despair and
catastrophe of Zimbabwe before it came to power.

"We are making progress. Zimbabwe is moving forward, it is slow, but it is there. We
have health workers and medicines in our hospitals, teachers and books in our schools,
food in our supermarkets, water in our taps and fuel in our petrol stations."

Tsvangirai later became angry when Mugabe awarded several top civil servant jobs to
ZANU-PF supporters instead of to the MDC, as spelled out in the political agreement.

More important than allocation of these jobs, according to many political analysts, was
the lack of progress in electoral reform and better governance, so that the next polls
would be undisputedly free and fair.

A political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, Eldred Masunungure, said he was

thoroughly disheartened by the state of the unity government at year end.

"I would say the coalition government is in a very perilous state and the marriage
between the old regime ZANU-PF and its coalition partners, the two MDC formations,
is approaching a stage of irretrievably breaking down," said Masunungure.

Tsvangirai ended the year also talking about elections. He said he wants a re-run of
presidential elections because they were disputed by violence at the last polls in 2008.

Elections would end the inclusive government, but the local public affairs watchdog,
Veritas, said the constitution does not allow a presidential election to be held on its
own.

Veteran political analyst, Brian Raftopoulos, who is also director of the Solidarity Peace
Trust, said senior security officials within ZANU-PF, whom he called securocrats, have
strong influence within ZANU-PF. They want elections to protect the massive assets
they acquired under Mugabe's rule since 1980 independence.

"They would feel endangered if any other party came to power because of the massive
abuses they have inflicted on Zimbabweans over the last 30 years," said Raftopoulos.
"They have a terrible history of terror, torture, violence, throughout post-colonial
Zimbabwe."
ZANU-PF ministers in the inclusive government introduced controversial laws in early
2010 that say black Zimbabweans must own 51 percent of any company worth more
than $500,000.

There was a storm of protest and the unity government moved quickly to water down
and delay the so-called indigenization laws. By year-end no action had been taken
beyond the continued threats from ZANU-PF leaders.

At the ZANU- PF conference, Mugabe linked indigenization to the targeted sanctions

by the United States and European Union against senior ZANU-PF leaders and about a
dozen mostly state-owned companies.

"In some cases we must read the riot act to the British and others, and say to them, this
is only 51 percent we are taking," said Mugabe. "Unless you remove sanctions we will
go for 100 percent."

Despite Mr. Mugabe's threats about indigenization, the unity Cabinet recently allowed
foreigners to buy a 53 percent stake in a state company, the Zimbabwe Iron and Steel
Company.

The Southern African Development Community, which mediated and guaranteed the
power-sharing government agreement, has not commented on the election talk by
either Mugabe or Tsvangirai. SADC indicated last month it will hold a meeting in
January to discuss the unity government's progress in implementing the political
agreement.

Mugabe relishes criticizing London and Washington, but he has shown in the past that
he can be influenced by SADC. Many people are wondering what action SADC will
take if Mugabe unilaterally dissolves parliament and declares elections next year before
a new constitution can be put in place as called for by the power-sharing accord.

Raftopoulos is concerned SADC is running out of patience with Zimbabwe's political

in-fighting.

"SADC in a sense are looking to bring this to some kind of finality, and so are all three
parties [in the Zimbabwean government]. From SADC's point of view they would like
an election that is reasonably free and fair that they can sell as legitimate," said
Raftopoulos.

Raftopoulos said Zimbabwe has a long way to go in order to have reasonably free and
fair elections.

Despite slow progress in 2010, businessmen are enjoying the stability that came with the
inclusive government and believe 2011 is too early for elections.
The managing director of a chain of Harare retail shops, Paul Hanyani, says recent year-
end bonuses for civil servants have improved sales and says the economy has
improved.

"From the experience we had in our country, we are not yet ready for such kind of a
process because we have seen things that are not good, violence and so on,
retrogressiveness in terms of the economy. Personally I think we needed more time
before we get to such a process again," said Hanyani.

Zimbabwe's unity government has no limit to its existence, but the constitution says
elections must be held every five years - or by March 2013.

Experts say progress in implementing the political agreement, most of which is now
enshrined in the constitution, is due for review before any of the three political parties
in the unity government can unilaterally bring the inclusive government to an end.
------------------
UN News Service Africa Briefs
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