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India's response
In an attempt to counter China's assertiveness and growing influence in South Asia, India has responded
with a mix of rhetorical, diplomatic, infrastructural and defence-led initiatives while still pursuing efforts at
bilateral confidence-building. Chinese navy's new
strategy in action
On the diplomatic front, India is seeking to build key strategic relations with countries in Southeast and
In April 2010 the Japan
East Asia, especially Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore. In November, the first military-to- Maritime Self Defense
military talks between India and Japan took place, building on a security-cooperation agreement signed in Force monitored ten
2009. Indian defence exchanges and cooperation with Singapore and Vietnam take place regularly. The Chinese warships
first visit of an Indian defence minister to South Korea took place two months ago, and agreements on joint passing 140km south
military training and development of defence equipment were signed. At the same time, India disregarded of Okinawa through the
Beijing’s démarches not to attend the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for jailed Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo Miyako Strait. The
deployment was of
in Oslo.
unprecedented size
and scope for the
India is also responding to China's infrastructural development in Tibet by stepping up the building of roads Chinese navy - we
in Arunachal Pradesh. In August 2009, Defence Minister A.K. Antony announced that nearly $200m had examine this new
been allocated in 2009–10 to build roads near the LAC, twice what had been spent the previous year. The stage in China's naval
Indian Supreme Court recently gave clearance for the construction of two strategic roads near the tri- development.
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junction of Tibet, Bhutan and Sikkim, due for completion in 2012.
India's military chiefs have begun to voice concerns over China's rising military proficiency. In August __________________
2009, then-Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta stated that India had neither the military capability
nor the intention 'to match China force for force' and advocated the use of maritime-domain awareness
and network-centric operations 'along with a reliable stand-off deterrent' as a means of coping with China's
military rise. Three months later, Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Pradeep Vasant Naik warned that
India's aircraft strength was inadequate and was only a third of China's. In December 2009, then-Chief of
Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor went further and reportedly stated that the army was revising its
doctrine so as to be able to fight a two-front war with both Pakistan and China. His successor, General
Vijay Kumar Singh, was more restrained last month when he talked of Pakistan and China being the 'two
major irritants' to India's national security. This reportedly prompted a revision of the Indian military's
perception of China from a 'challenge' to a 'long-term threat'. In December 2009, then-National Security
Advisor M.K. Narayanan also accused Chinese hackers of launching a foiled cyber attack against the
prime minister's office. Last April, Defence Minister Antony called for a crisis-management action plan to
counter cyber attacks and cyber terrorism.
India is in the final stages of raising two new infantry mountain divisions of 36,000 troops each, and is
reported to be raising an artillery brigade for Arunachal Pradesh. In addition, it is raising two new battalions
of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim scouts, comprising 5,000 locally recruited troops each. Meanwhile, the
Indian air force has begun to deploy two squadrons of modern Sukhoi-30MKI combat fighters to Tezpur air
base in eastern India, close to the LAC, for the first time. It is also upgrading six airstrips in Arunachal
Pradesh to improve troop mobility. Designed as part of its deterrent against China, the first test of India's
5,000km-range Agni-V nuclear-capable ballistic missile is expected next year. The Indian navy plans to
strengthen its fleet on the eastern seafront, including the basing of an aircraft carrier in the Bay of Bengal.
It reportedly plans to build a base in the east for its prospective nuclear-submarine force. At the same time,
India has stepped up naval interactions and engagements with the US and Southeast and East Asia. An
increased Chinese naval presence and activities in the Indian Ocean are being countered by bilateral
Indian naval exercises with Singapore and Vietnam in the South China Sea, and with the US, along with
Japan, off Okinawa. Moreover, the Indian navy's August 2009 Maritime Doctrine made a distinction
between primary and secondary areas of maritime interest. Among secondary areas it included for the first
time the 'South China Sea, other areas of [the] West Pacific Ocean and friendly littoral countries located
herein', along with 'other areas of national interest based on considerations of diaspora and overseas
investments'.
While the Indian navy now regularly exercises and trains with Western and Southeast Asian navies, the
Chinese navy is enhancing its relations with Pakistan's navy. The tendency for each to be excluded from
the international engagements of the other has raised concerns over an emerging naval rivalry in the
Indian Ocean.
Future risks
Even as preparations are made for Wen Jiabao's visit to India, both countries are wary of each other while
attempting to build mutual confidence. The unprecedented growth in bilateral trade has not yet had the
effect of building stability in the political relationship, though a communications 'hotline' between the two
nations' leaders is expected to be put into operation shortly. India is aware that it cannot afford to get into
an arms race with China, and there is no appetite on either side to risk economic growth and development.
Although the likelihood of a conflict between the two countries is extremely low, the possibility of border
skirmishes cannot be ruled out. In such an environment, there is plenty of scope for misunderstandings.