Professional Documents
Culture Documents
October, 2010
PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx
Contents Page
1) Avg. CAGR 1994-2006 2) Avg. CAGR1995-2005 3) Peak oil supply between 2015 and 2025 4) >50% of oil demand from vehicles
COMMENTS
4)
> Only the EU has announced a
long-term CO2 emission
target for 2020
-27%
-29% > Obama's more aggressive
-41% -16% approach essentially pulls the
216 2020 NHTSA target forward to
190 2016
160 160 157 168 154 167
130 141 > Japan has only announced a
medium-term CO2 emission
95
target
> China has an ambitious CO2
emission target until 2015 –
few vehicles in stock
Actual Target Target Actual Target Target Actual Target Target Actual Target
2006 20122) 2020 2006 20163) 2020 2006 2010 2015 2008 20155)
1) No cycle conversion considered; gasoline assumed for non-EU countries 2) For 65% of the fleet from 2012 on, gradually increasing to 100% of the fleet by 2015
3) New national fuel-economy program proposed by Barack Obama 4) New passenger vehicle sales
5) Target based on draft official automotive fuel-economy standards to improve fuel economy by an additional 18% by 2025
Source: EC; EPA, DOT; NHTSA; JAMA; ICCT; press; Roland Berger PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx 6
Al REGULATIONS AND RESOURCES
Source: EC; Clean Future; METI; NORC; MOF; MIIT; MOST; Roland Berger PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx 7
Bl MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Compact SUV
Premium
Large
Mid-size
Small (A/B)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240
100%
(Today)
- 4-9%
Start-stop
- 7-15% - 4-5%
- 6-12% Mild hybrid
60% - 8-12%
(2020) - 10-13% - 10-14%
General Downsizing2) Var. valve train3) Hybrid 2nd-gen DI (lean) HCCI
improvements1) (in partial load)
EURO6
NOx after-
treatment
required
100%
NOX EMISSIONS
1) E.g. reduced engine friction, integrated exhaust manifold, optimized cooling (incl. adjustable water pump), EPS, aerodynamic optimization, gearbox ratios
2) Incl. cylinder reduction 3) Variable valve lift (3 stages, incl. 0-stroke for cylinder deactivation)
COMMENTS
Engine power [KW]
• Current low emission
250 technology has reduced
~3.0L1) -29% gasoline engine CO2 emission
A6
9-5 by 15-30% compared with
200 330i normal technology
Passat
V70
E-class
A4 2.0 TFSI
• BMW has introduced lean
Insignia 2.0 Turbo
150 ~2.0L1) stratified combustion engines
Mondeo 2.0 SCTI
320i
(N43/N53), which a substantial
-19%
Mondeo 2.0
advantage especially at high
100 A3 1.6 FSI displacements
Fiesta 1.6 116i
~1.6L1) B170
1) Engine displacement
100%
(Today)
- 3-7%
Start-stop
- 4-13% - 2-4%
Mild hybrid
70% - 8-10% + /- 0%
(2020) - 3-5% - 3-5%
Today
NOX EMISSIONS
1) e.g. reduced engine friction, integrated exhaust manifold, optimized cooling (incl. adjustable water pump), EPS, aerodynamics optimization, gearbox ratios
2,500
1,500
Large
Mid-size
Small (A/B)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240
Mid-size 5-10% ?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240
hybrid
> Single displacement approx.
+ boost, short + plug-in 250 cm3
e-drive > Optimized combustion
+ stop-start processes/emissions,
reduction high/full-throttle
recuperation E-drive with ICE > Downsizing, reduced friction
range extender > High-power e-motors
Conventional > High-energy batteries
ICE
EV with
Pure EV fuel-cell range
extender
ELECTRICAL PROPULSION
Source: VW, Roland Berger PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx 16
Bl MARKET DEVELOPMENT
1)
2)
2 Cost Fuel and battery prices > Stagnating fuel prices > Rising oil prices
limita- > Battery cost reduction > Accelerated battery cost reduction
tions
> Little government support for fuel- > High tax incentives/subsidies for zero- or
Taxes/incentives efficient technologies nearly zero-emission vehicles in beginning
3 Image/ Segments > Limited segment offering, A-/B- > Wide segment offering; A-/B-/C-
comfort segments for EVs, C-/D-segments for segments for EVs, C-segments or bigger
require- PHEVs for PHEVs
ments > A few front-runners > Numerous OEMs already in first phase
Brands > Most OEMs remain skeptical > Many incumbent OEMs actively involved
10,600
3,100
1,800 1,600 1,200 1,000 800
New car sales in In areas with At least two cars Only one EV Fulfill mobility Drive EV Have a TCO Potential EV
Western Europe infrastructure in the household per household range segments advantage customers
coverage available
2020 4%
5% 6%
7% 8% 9%
14% 1% 4% 8% 1%
9% 4% 2% 0%
0%
6% 1% 5% 4%
350-400
VALUE ADD
~100 ~ 275 ~ 500 ~700
[USD/kWh]
PRODUCTION > Local > Global > Regional > Local
LEVERS > Mining capacity > Standardization > Manufacturing > Assembly technology
(oligopoles) > New materials (nano) technology > Labor costs
> Sulphatization > Process technology > Component costs
1) Necessary invest for 100k EV-equivalents (20 kWh)
Even in the long term, the cost difference between EVs/ PHEVs and
ICEs is unlikely to fall below EUR 4,000 and EUR 5,000
Approximate cost of powertrain for mid-size vehicles [EUR]
Gasoline EV PHEV1)
Powertrain costs Powertrain costs Powertrain costs
-9,000
-7,000
16,500
14,000
Battery Battery
+800 7,500 7,000
ICE4)
Electric motor2)
2,200 3,000 Electric motor2)
Power electronics Power electronics
Other3) Other3)
2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020
1) Serial hybrid layout 2) Incl. single stage gearbox 3) Cooling, adaption transmission and wiring harness 4) Incl. generator
ENERGY SOURCES WILL CHANGE, but storage will take place not just by means of electricity
but also next-generation biofuels and potentially hydrogen.
Similar to other new technologies, e-mobility is HIGHLY FIXED COSTS DRIVEN in all aspects –
ECONOMIES OF SCALE are NECESSARY , CONCENTRATION is INEVITABLE.
Examples:
- High R&D costs for new cell chemistries
- Infrastructure and/or software based value added services
OEMS AND SUPPLIERS need to deal with the HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. They must
DEVELOP NEW BUSINESS MODELS AND ALTERNATIVE REVENUE STREAMS to compensate for
technology substitution.
PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx 24
E. About Roland Berger
PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx 25
El ROLAND BERGER
Our profile
Western Europe
Russia > Global team of more than
12 Partners/Principals 2 Partners/Principals
90 Consultants 10 Consultants
200 dedicated
automotive consultants
Japan
USA 4 Partners/Principals > Over 300 clients in the
4 Partners/Principals Eastern Europe 20 Consultants automotive industry
20 Consultants 2 Partners/Principals
15 Consultants > More than 1,000 success-
China
ful projects since 2000
2 Partners/Principals > Proven leading-edge
20 Consultants
tools and methodologies
> Thought leadership in the
South America India1) worldwide automotive
2 Partner/Principal 1 Partner/Principal community, producing
10 Consultants 10 Consultants
highly regarded studies
and top quality research
Winning the powertrain race – The front line • Marketing as a key role for new powertrain challenges
role of marketing and sales ( Apr. 2009) • Requirements for brand positioning
• The role of design in customer decisions
• Requirements towards the sales and service organization
Powertrain 2020 - China's ambition to become • Chinese efforts to become major technology hub for E-components
market leader in E-Vehicles (Jan. 2010) • Government is pushing and moving towards electric driving
• Implications on business model design and partnering strategies for suppliers as well
as OEMs
Powertrain 2020: Electric Vehicles – Voice of • Drivers for the electrification of powertrain – scarce resources and tougher regulations
the Customer • Customers' affinity to electric vehicles
• Potential additional profit sources for electric vehicles
(April 2010)
CONTACTS
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Thomas Schick
Partner Partner
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH
Automotive Competence Center Automotive Competence Center
Loeffelstraße 46 Neue Mainzer Strasse 69-75
70597 Stuttgart 60311 Frankfurt
Germany Germany
Phone +49 711 3275-7421 Phone +49 69 29924-6202
Mobile +49 160 744-7421 Mobile +49 160 744-6202
mailto: wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com mailto: thomas_schlick@de.rolandberger.com
PT2020_Electromobility_Webminar_02112010 .pptx 31