Survey of world-wide consumption 1999-2009

12 October 2010

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 Survey of world-wide consumption 1999-2009

Table of contents

Executive summary

1. A recap on processing and trade

1.1. Trade
1.2. Industrial background 2008/2009

2. Global consumption

3. The drivers of growth 

4. Regional Consumption Trends

4.1. North America
4.2. Brazil
4.3. The Far East
4.4. Central America
4.5. Mediterranean Africa
4.6. Europe
4.7. Turkey 
4.8. Other regions 

5. Per capita consumption

6. Areas for potential development 

7. Summary and projections for growth

8. Conclusion
Other comment 

Methodology

Apendices

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Executive Summary 

In 2009, for the first time in ten years, the volumes of tomato products exported have been
noticeably lower than the previous year. This worldwide decline happened after the economic
downturn and is probably not attributable to it for several reasons. There is clearly an
economic dimension to the contraction in world trade during 2009 which partly stems from
the lower production in 2007 and 2008. However, the mechanisms that were fundamental to
this slowdown clearly seem also to come from strategic and/or commercial approaches of
first and second stage processing companies.

The contraction in trade does not seem to have had an “echo” in the estimated level of
consumption of tomato products on a global scale. Whereas comparisons of trade between
2008 and 2009 show a 4.8% decline, the analysis of global consumption shows a 5.2% rise
during the same period.

In 2009, the USA and Europe still accounted for the consumption of more than half of the
volumes processed worldwide. Nevertheless, the issue that stands out over the last decade
is unquestionably the rise in consumption in other regions. Another encouraging sign for the
industry worldwide is that, in most regions, the main driver for this increase derives from the
boom in per capita consumption.

In 2008/2009, despite a slight inflection, worldwide consumption continued to grow but the
rate of growth was much reduced; finally, the increase was largely due to regions of medium-
level consumption which more than compensated for the lack of growth in developed
regions.

Drawing on national and regional figures, we can infer that from 1999 to 2009, average
annual consumption worldwide has grown from 5kg to 5.8kg per person constituting a jump
of nearly 16 % in 10 years.

In terms of growth, the annual rise in worldwide consumption is about 3% while per capita
consumption is rising each year between 1.9% and 2%. It seems that we should now count
on an annual growth rate in consumption volumes of around 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes per
year compared to previous growth projections of 1 million tonnes per year at the end of the
1990’s.

Thinking conservatively, if the growth is roughly linear, the individual consumption threshold
of 6kg could be exceeded by 2013/2014 whereas global consumption could pass the 44
million tonne mark by 2015/2016.

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1. A recap on processing and trade
During the last decade, the volumes of tomatoes processed worldwide rose by more
than 60%, from 23.5 million tonnes in 2001 to 38 million tonnes according to current
season estimates as of 15 August 2010.

During this period, the global industry recorded two peaks in activity in 2004 and in
2009, similar to those experienced in 1996 and 1999. Without putting this down to a
purely cyclical effect, these trends do however seem to be recurrent. They reflect the
extreme reactivity of the sector which is a consequence of highly volatile global prices
for tomato products (mainly paste) as well as the large number of countries operating
in the sector.

Industrial processing and the supply of markets on a global scale are both strongly
influenced by the predominance of industries from the northern hemisphere which
today is maintained by about 10 countries. These are, in order of importance in 2009,
USA, China, Italy, Spain, Iran, Turkey, Portugal, Brazil, Greece, Tunisia and Chile.
Over the last 20 years, the influence of these 10 leading countries has continued to
rise both in terms of volumes processed and products exported.

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 1.1. Trade
Recently published studies on global trade show, amongst other things, that the
significant increases recorded since 2000 have been mainly due to the exceptional
growth of the Chinese processing industry. Initially, a competitor to larger traditional
industries in Italy, Spain, Turkey, Chile and the USA, the Chinese industry now has
its share of the market by focusing on relatively low quality finished products enabling
access to new markets with lower purchasing power, particularly Africa. After 10
years, it appears that the quantitative increase in these global markets has also
enabled the longer established industries to enlarge their markets and therefore
increase their processing activities.

As concerns the USA and more especially, California, it should be noted that
although it has been a world leader in volumes for a number of years now, its entry
into the leading group of exporters is relatively recent. The ambitions declared by the
Californian industry in 2006 have been attained during the last two years. The US
balance of trade for “tomato products” has gone from an annual average of 1 million
tonnes (fresh equivalent) between 2002 and 2007 to 2.5 million tonnes in 2008 and
1.9 million tonnes in 2009.

In comparison, the development of Chinese exports is longer established but it is also

much more striking with a regular rate of growth from 816,000 tonnes in 2000 to 6.1
million tonnes in 2009.

Over the past decade, global trade has increased sharply due to the growth in
demand and the growing concentration of centres for both processing and supply.
The volumes exported on a global scale in 1999/2000 represented some 40% of
amounts processed but now account for nearly 60% of processed products in
2008/2009.

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 1.2. Industrial background 2008/2009
For the first time in 10 years, the volumes of tomato products exported in 2010 (20.4
million tonnes fresh equivalent) have been noticeably lower than the previous year
(21.4 million tonnes). This decline represents 4.8% or slightly more than 1 million
tonnes fresh equivalent. The sector most affected by this drop in activity is paste,
accounting for -5.4% or 140,000 tonnes of finished products. Trade in sauces and
ketchups recorded only a small drop of 1.1% or 31,000 tonnes while, last in order of
importance, canned tomato exports declined by 4% or 73,000 tonnes.

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This worldwide decline happened after the economic downturn and is probably not
attributable to it for several reasons. Paradoxically, even though much of the
decrease concerns paste, the slow-down in trade is not simply down to countries with
weak purchasing power which are usually significant contributors to global trends in
this type of tomato product. The main countries concerned by this drop are, in order
of importance, the Far East, Europe (in its broad geographical sense), the Emirates
region and Asia-Pacific (see appendix for geographical zones). Next, is Central,
America, Andean America, the Arabian Peninsula and the region of Ukraine-Belarus.
The 2008/2009 marketing year saw a high level of trading which enabled undeniably
excessive requirements to be met. This transpired in a context of fairly average
processing activity partly because of a shortage of merchandise following the 2008
season and partly because of a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude on the part of global buyers
who were informed very early on that the 2009 season would be plentiful and lead to
a crash in prices. These same forecasts of bumper harvests in 2009 prompted
several processing regions such as the EU to defer, reduce or even suspend certain
supply routes. It is this that explains the strong decline registered by Chinese paste
exports (the largest on a global scale) between the 2007/2008 (850,000 tonnes) and
the 2008/2009 (779,000 tonnes) marketing years, or a historic slump of nearly 9%.

In addition, there is clearly, an economic dimension to the contraction in world trade

during 2009. The spike in prices recorded between the end of 2007 and the end of
2008 probably reduced supply to certain developing regions quite considerably.
However, the mechanisms that were fundamental to this slowdown clearly seem to
come from strategic and/or commercial approaches of first and second stage
processing companies.

Finally, it seems that there are also another analysis of this slow down that makes it
easy to explain. According to experts, this slow down follows on from the generally
short crops of 2007 and 2008 which lead to a cumulative shortage of supply (and
consequent surge in price). As the logical outcome of this was, that were not enough
product to maintain the same level of trade, since the large 2009 crop only became
available in the last 3 (or 2) months of 2009. If this hypothesis is correct we should
see a compensating increase in shipments during 2010.

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2. Global consumption
The contraction in trade does not seem to have had an “echo” in the estimated level
of consumption of tomato products on a global scale. Whereas comparisons of trade
between 2008 and 2009 show a 4.8% decline, the analysis of global consumption
shows a 5.2% rise during the same period which represents the equivalent of nearly
2 million tonnes of tomatoes.

Global processing : annual figures

Global consumption : 3 year average figures

Despite this rise, there is little doubt that the volumes processed in 2009 considerably
exceeded global consumption capacity and subsequently mark out 2009/2010 as a
year of surplus stocks. The graph above compares annual levels of processing and
consumption and clearly shows identical situations to 2009 in 1999 and 2004 as well
as the periods of shortfalls in 2001/2002 and 2006/2007.

Thus, from 1999 to 2009, global consumption of tomato products grew from 30.2
million tonnes (fresh equivalent) to nearly 40 million tonnes. The USA and Europe,
two long established processing regions, still accounted for the consumption of more
than half of the volumes processed worldwide, with consumption figures of 11 million
tonnes and 9.7 million tonnes (fresh equivalent) respectively.

As we have seen in our previous studies, these two regions are way ahead of the
other main consumer centres. In 2009, the consumption in Mediterranean Africa was
estimated to be nearly 2.5 million tonnes (fresh equivalent), closely followed by the
Iran-Azerbaijan-Armenia region (2.2 million tonnes), the Far East (2.1 million tonnes)
and West Africa (2 million tonnes).

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Nevertheless, the issue that stands out over the last decade is unquestionably the
rise in consumption in other regions. Together, these represented 39 % in 1999 (11.2
million tonnes fresh equivalent) but sharply increased over the period to now account
for 48% (18.9 million tonnes) of global consumption.

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3. The drivers of growth
Another encouraging sign for the industry worldwide is that the rise in consumption
goes way beyond demographic factors alone. In most regions, the main driver for this
increase derives from the boom in per capita consumption.

This process is further

substantiated in markets
themselves considered ‘young’.
Even if we ignore extreme cases
such as Central Asia or Iraq
where regional consumption was
extremely weak or even non-
existent at the start of the
decade, it is both clear and
logical that the most marked
growth comes from rises in per
capita consumption which are all
the more spectacular given that
the markets are displaying initial
levels of consumption which are
still modest. Conversely, mature
markets, particularly in America,
Europe, the Far East and
Oceania, are registering much
slower growth rates based as
much on demographics as per
capita consumption.

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Regional consumption figures

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The most marked increases are in the regions of Ukraine-Belarus, Iraq, Central Asia
and Turkey where growth for the period 2002/2009 has exceeded 20% and, in some
cases, reached almost 50%. The Emirates regions as well as the neighbouring
Arabian Peninsula and Eastern Africa regions have all registered growth of between
10-15%, similar to Central America.
In most cases worldwide, the main reason for this increase is the growth in per capita
consumption as illustrated in the following diagram comparing regional consumption
between 2002 and 2009.

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4. Regional Consumption Trends
A certain number of geographical areas, particularly those which have reached a
mature level of consumption, only experience minimal variations in volumes
consumed annually. This is the case for North America and Brazil but also for the Far
East and Oceania which together accounted for more than 40% of global
consumption in 2008.
For the period 2002-2009 (chosen so as to have significant data for each of the 23
regions studied), the consumption figures for all these regions all show positive
growth rates of between 15% and 25% (corresponding to 2 to 3.5% annually).
However, in 2009, there was a slight contraction and in some cases, even a decline,
in regional consumption among certain leading zones such that:
• worldwide consumption continued to grow in 2008/2009 but the rate of growth
was much reduced;
• the increase in global consumption
referred to above, was largely due to
“secondary regions” which display
traditionally high growth rates. Despite a
slowdown in 2008/2009, fast developing
markets such as Ukraine, Turkey, the
Arabian Peninsula, the four African
regions or Central America have shown
positive growth which has more than
compensated for the lack of growth in
developed regions.

The following section is set out region by region in order of importance of variations
registered from 2008 to 2009 from the most significant falls to the most marked
increases in consumption. The values correspond to three-year averages designed to
compensate for the stock effect which can accentuate or tone down certain
variations.

4.1. North America

in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent
as those recorded in Canada and Mexico remain stable or even showing a slight
increase.
Following a ‘trough’ from 1999 to
2002, it appears that North
American consumption (USA,
Canada and Mexico) has picked
up significantly over the period
2003-2008. The figures from this
study which represent net
consumption (real volumes
accounted for in the territories in
question excluding trade),
indicate a marked slowdown in
consumption from 2008 to 2009,
especially in the USA whereas

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 4.2. Brazil
As with the USA, the period in
question starts with a reduction in
per capita consumption which is
translated by a marked drop in
volumes accounted for at national
level (from 1.27 to 1.05 million
tonnes fresh equivalent). The
upturn in Brazilian consumption
seen in 2003 and 2004 has
rapidly levelled out at about 1.22
million tonnes and has remained
virtually unchanged for the last
five years. in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent

4.3. The Far East

Consumption in the Far East (Japan, Thailand, South Korea, the Philippines, etc.)
has grown regularly from 1999 to 2007. After this date, a drop in per capita (and
regional) consumption made itself felt and anticipating somewhat the global trend.

in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent

From this first group of three regions which have been hit by a decline in
consumption, we can add the United Arab Emirates region and Oman as well as the
Indian Subcontinent. The fall is quite marked as concerns the former but only just
significant for the latter.

The following regions all display gains in consumption from 2008 to 2009 although
only those with the most conclusive growth rates are commented on here given that
the regions of Russia-Georgia, Australia-New Zealand, Western Africa and Iran-
Azerbaijan have registered relatively modest growth rates of 1% to 2% (totalling less
than 100,000 tonnes fresh equivalent) resulting in overall consumption for the four
regions of just over 6.1 million tonnes.

14 
 
 4.4. Central America
Central America is ranked 11th
amongst the world’s leading
consumer regions of tomato
products. While it may be the
smallest of the four most
significant regions referred to
here, it nevertheless displays
quite respectable levels of
consumption (more than 900,000
tonnes fresh equivalent in 2009).
Above all, it has recorded a rate
of growth over the decade as
exemplary as it is spectacular representing an annual average growth rate for this
group of countries of around 17%. This lead to increased overall consumption of
some 330,000 tonnes to nearly 920,000 tonnes fresh equivalent.

4.5. Mediterranean Africa

Although far removed culturally
from other regions displaying
similar trends such as NAFTA
and Brazil, North (or
Mediterranean), Africa
experienced a small reduction
in volumes consumed at a
regional level between 1999
and 2002. After a rather
hesitant rise from 2003 to 2006,
consumption really took off from
2007. The overall gain from
1.75 million tonnes to 2.5 million
15 
 
tonnes (fresh equivalent) for the whole period is impressive giving Mediterranean
Africa an annual average growth figure of more than 4%.

4.6. Europe
The significant fluctuations
seen on the European chart
are more a reflection of
inaccuracies concerning lack of
awareness of stocks than the
reality of consumption trends.
As is the case for strong
exporting regions or countries
such as China, Chile, Portugal,
etc., the lack of quantified
stock data strongly alters the
outputs and makes them very
difficult to express.
Conversely, data from early
2010 taken from the study on
consumption which focuses
specifically on the EU takes
account of available stocks. It
highlights near steady growth
marked only by a slowdown
between 2004 and 2006 and
then a significant increase in
volumes consumed in Europe
between 2007 and 2009.

(corrected for stock variations)

4.7. Turkey
From 1999 to 2001, domestic
consumption in Turkey was
relatively weak (less than
200,000 tonnes) but then
experienced quite sudden
change between 2002 and
2005 which made it rise to
540,000 tonnes and then fall
back to around 420,000
tonnes fresh equivalent. From
2006 and 2007 onwards,
there was a real explosion in
Turkish per capita
consumption which enabled
the Turkish processing
industry to compensate for
losses in exports.

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 4.8. Other regions

in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent

The other regions (Andean America and Chile, Southern Africa, the Arabian
Peninsula, Ukraine and Belarus, the UAE and Oman, Iraq, the Indian Subcontinent,
Central Asia and Eastern Africa), constitute a group in which has experienced
spectacular growth in overall consumption between 2002 and 2009, from 1.7 million
tonnes to 3.4 million tonnes. This doubling in growth does however hide some stark
contrasts between different elements.

In most cases, consumption of tomato products has followed a more or less

consistent growth trend. In the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, Southern and
Eastern Africa which already showed a certain level of consumption, the last decade
has resulted in unrestrained growth of 100% to 200%. For the remainder (Iraq,
Ukraine and Belarus, Central Asia), we can refer to the creation of markets from
almost nothing which are now demonstrating tremendous growth. In the space of 10
years, regional consumption has reached levels identical to, or in some cases
exceeding, those of established mature markets (370,000 tonnes fresh equivalent in
Ukraine and Belarus in 2009, 270,000 tonnes in Iraq and 180,000 tonnes in Central
Asia).

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in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent

For the last four countries in this group, the trends have been more hesitant and
ended in quite mixed figures for 2009:

18 
 
 The rises and falls succeed each other
in Andean America hitting a trough
between 2004 and 2006. In the end,
the region shows a modest gain 70,000
tonnes for the decade (+1.3%) which is
more down to demographic growth
than per capita consumption which
rose from 6.9kg/person in 1999 to
7.0kg/person in 2009.

The growth in consumption between

1999 and 2007 in the United Arab
Emirates and in the Sultanate of Oman
could have been among the highest
rates of growth had it not been followed
by just as spectacular a decline
between 2008 and 2009. Growth on the
whole is based upon very high per
capita consumption.

The Indian Subcontinent shows very

weak consumption in comparison to its
population. Per capita consumption has
grown more rapidly than the population
in such a way that the overall outcome
is positive, but modestly so (191,000
tonnes in 2009 or 120g per person,
according to our estimates).

In Yemen, considerable fluctuations

have influenced consumption over the
last 10 years. Initial growth, between
1999 and 2003, was due to an increase
in per capita consumption but is now
based upon demographic growth. The
figures for the last decade have been
positive with an increase from 93,000
tonnes to 140,000 tonnes fresh
equivalent or 5.5kg to 6kg per person
per year.
in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent
These 11 regions account for a little more than one third of the world’s population
(stable at 36% for the decade). In 1999, they accounted for just 6% of worldwide
consumption. In the same time period during which 12 leading regions saw their
overall consumption grow by around 3.6% per year, or 955,000 tonnes fresh
equivalent, these 11 regions have increased their demand by more than 10%
(173,000 tonnes) each year and in 2009, they ‘weighed-in’ at more than 9% of
worldwide consumption.

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5. Per capita consumption
The redefinition of the geographical regions coupled with more advanced analysis of
statistical data, enables greater precision and almost full coverage of national
consumption figures. In total, with the 232 countries studied yielding 208 significant
results (the other countries being either too small or Free Trade Areas or for which
historical data was missing), the census of worldwide consumption is much more
meaningful and allows a level of detail that has not previously been attained.
Drawing on national and regional figures, we can infer that from 1999 to 2009,
average annual consumption worldwide has grown from 5.0kg to 5.8kg per person
constituting a jump of nearly 16% in 10 years.

At the same time, we can observe a certain number of ‘innovative’ and somewhat
unexpected regional results. The record for per capita consumption goes to the
United Arab Emirates and Oman followed by the Iran-Azerbaijan-Armenia region with
annual averages of 48kg and 28kg per person in 2009. The main regions with
western lifestyles (Australia-New Zealand, North America and Europe) confirm
previously obtained results with 24kg per person for the first two and 18kg per person
for the latter, with large differences within this huge and varied region. The Arabian
Peninsula and Turkey remain behind with per capita consumption figures of about
17kg in 2009 and finally, Mediterranean Africa with 11kg per person per year.

It is no accident if these 8 regions which represent just 21% of the world’s population
account for 71% of consumption calculated in 2009. They have common dietary
habits heavily influenced by the Mediterranean diet whether this comes from culinary
traditions or has been adopted by fashion or modern lifestyles of fast food and
travelling, etc. In every instance, tomato products are indispensible to the preparation
or the enjoyment of emblematic dishes whether this be with ketchup, tomato frito,
tomato juice, pizza toppings, classic Italian sauces or traditional soups from Algeria,
etc.
20 
 
Average per capita consumption: Quantified figures

21 
 
6. Areas for potential development
As we have already mentioned, it is rather the levels of individual consumption that
provide a truer reflection of the real trends for growth than the volumes consumed for
all the geographical areas studied.
There is clearly no direct link between the level of population and volumes
consumed. Densely populated regions with low consumption like the Indian
Subcontinent and China effectively constitute markets full of development potential
but only due to the high number of inhabitants in these regions.
The events of 2009 were marked by a slight dip in areas of high consumption and
therefore consideration for growth of countries of medium-level consumption seems
credible. In fact, it appears more reasonable to bank on development within regions
that already display a ‘habit’ for tomato products in their culinary traditions rather than
ex nihilo growth. Thus, we can identify the Indian Subcontinent, Central Asia, China
and the Far East as well as Eastern and Southern Africa and Central America.
Although densely populated with 66% of the world’s population, these areas
represent just 12% of global consumption. According to estimates, the average per
capita volumes consumed in this group have only increased by 470g over the last
decade.

22 
 
Conversely, North Africa, Western Africa, Russia, Iraq and the Ukraine or even
Andean America and Brazil appear to be more logical areas for growth potential.
These regions are less populous and represent just 16% of the world’s population but
together they account for nearly 21% of global consumption. In addition, average
consumption per capita grew by 2.2kg fresh equivalent from 1999 to 2009,
unquestionable proof of the existence of a real growth trend in consumption.

23 
 
7. Summary and projections for growth
To sum up the quantified figures from this 2010 census on worldwide consumption,
we can note that global consumption has increased from 30 million tonnes to 40
million tonnes in 11 years mainly due to an increase in per capita consumption which
grew from 5.0kg/year to 5.8kg/year for the same period.

In terms of growth, the annual rise in worldwide consumption is about 3.0% while per
capita consumption is rising between 1.9% and 2%. These ratios are slightly higher
than our previous estimates meaning that we should now count on an annual growth
rate in consumption volumes of around 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes per year compared
to previous growth projections of 1 million tonnes per year at the end of the 1990’s.

It is difficult to know whether to give more weight to the hypothesis of a sharp

increase in demand or to an effect amplified by demographic growth. Thinking
conservatively, if the growth in volumes estimated to be consumed each year
worldwide is roughly linear; the individual consumption threshold of 6kg could be
exceeded by 2013/2014 whereas global consumption could pass the 44 million tonne
mark by 2015/2016.

24 
 
 25 
 
8. Conclusion
9 Global trade: there was a slight decrease in 2009 compared with 2008,
especially regarding paste (-5% in volumes), but it doesn’t necessarily mean a drop
in consumption. The question of whether this slowdown is linked to the recorded
increase in prices or to strategic/commercial parameters remains unanswered.
9 Better geographical zoning method (23 regions) and larger number of
countries studied (232 of yielding 208 significant results) means more reliable data
and better knowledge and understanding of global trends and outputs.
Nevertheless, this also emphasizes the need for more data (see “other comment”)…
9 Consumption versus Processing: global figures are up again in 2008 and
2009, confirming previous trend; the census clearly identifies years of
overproduction (‘99, ‘04) and years of shortages (‘08). Latest results clearly
show a surplus in processed quantities with regard to consumption which
explains the current situation in stocks and prices of tomato paste.
9 Obviously two regions are leading and accounting for a large share of global
consumption, but their influence in total figures regularly decreases, while « other »
areas are rapidly increasing. There are also “innovative” results regarding per capita
consumption, with two unexpected leading regions (UAE-Oman, Iran Azerb), followed
by Austr-NZ, NAFTA, EU) which consolidate their positions and importance. This
distribution also clearly demonstrates the importance of Western and
Mediterranean diets in global consuming habits.
9 Global per capita consumption is steadily increasing.
9 In most regions, the main driving force of growth is still the increase in per
capita consumption, more than population growth.
9 There is no link between population numbers and consumption levels although
densely populated regions (Indian Subcontinent, China) obviously remain
important areas for potential development.
9 This let us consider that development of consumption “ex nihilo” (particularly in
the previously mentioned regions) is less plausible than progress in established
consumer (even medium-level) regions.
9 Estimated annual growth, based on 11 year period: global c.3 %, per capita: 1.9 -
2 %: this is slightly more than previous estimates, and may be indicating some
acceleration?
9 Tomato products are globally « crisis proof », but… this latest census
indicates a slight slowdown in consumption in 2009 for developed markets
like NAFTA, Brazil, Far East, Australia-New Zealand (41 % of global
consumption in 2008), with the exception of Europe… while developing
markets saw their consumption levels increase making up for the decrease
in developed countries.
9 …Does this mean that future development and growth will be located in “medium-
level consumption” areas rather than densely populated areas?

26 
 
Other comment

Regarding the reliability of some results, it is obvious that, for some countries like
China, Chile or Portugal, where activity is mainly focused on exports, there is a real
need for more detailed information.

In these three specific cases, we often encounter negative consumption, mainly

because of the lack of relevant stocks figures. This is an example of the direction in
which we could improve the quality of such studies.

27 
 
Methodology

The aim of this fourth report on worldwide consumption (Melbourne 2004, Tunis
2006, Toronto 2008, Sial Paris 2010) is to analyse global consumption and identify
trends over the past 10 years. This new report presents a total of 23 regions based
on the same zoning for the Trade Study published in June 2010 at Estoril which
together, comprise 208 countries with relevant data.

Using statistical information on imports and exports supplied by the Global Trade
Information Service (GTIS), and, where applicable, the production (WPTC figures)
and the stocks of each category or subcategory of tomato product (pastes, canned
tomatoes, sauces and ketchup) were recorded for each country.

For partner countries (i.e. those figuring in the list of destination countries for exports
but not retained by the GTIS as data declaring countries, see annex), the volumes
imported have been pieced together from figures supplied by all exporting countries.
The differences observed between exports and imports in previous studies have now
been reduced almost to 0. For example, the coherence between imports and exports
over the last ten years being 98.2% for pastes, 99.7% for canned tomatoes and
92.3% for sauces and ketchup.

For each country, available customs information, processing coefficient data from the
WPTC and AMITOM or the analysis of industrial activity among the main players in
global trade (yearly profiles of fresh tomato equivalent exports) enables us to
calculate the equivalence in terms of volume of raw materials, either shipped in the
form of processed goods or expressed in terms of production and stocks (where
applicable).

The balance of trade has been identified for each country in fresh tomato equivalent
(i.e., exports – imports). For each year, apparent domestic consumption in each
category has been calculated according to the formula:
Apparent consumption = Initial stock + production – balance – final stock

The sum of these national figures allows the apparent consumption for each region to
be identified. Using population figures supplied by the FAO, apparent individual
consumption figures (in kg per capita) can be identified by dividing regional or
national consumption figures.

The collated regional figures provide a way to chart the evolution of worldwide
consumption for the ten year period in question (census).
In order to validate the coherence of these results, the values obtained are compared
with annual production figures supplied by the WPTC. In this way, the volumes
processed are used directly in their annual form whilst the values for consumption are
averaged over three years so as to take account of any discrepancies and lack of
detail in stocks.

28 
 
Appendices

in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent

in metric Tonnes raw material equivalent

29 
 
 30 
 
Zoning list

31 
 
 Regional Population

32 
 
 National consumptions, total and Per capita, #

33 
 
 34 
 
 35 
 
 36 
 
 37 
 
 38 
 
 List of 24 countries for which results are considered as unsignificant

39