H24 MPR Lecture 6

Uncertainty in Planning
Ioannes Tang
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering
Faculty of Engineering Originally prepared by
Room: B1C21, Telephone: 03-8924 8346 Mick Mawdesley
Email: Ioannes.Tang@nottingham.edu.my
 Uncertainty in Planning
• The construction industry is uncertain
– It builds complex projects in uncertain
conditions

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

– The weather affects it
– The ground conditions affect it
– It uses materials which have properties that
are uncertain
– It uses largely unskilled / low skilled workers
– It has clients who change their minds
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 Uncertainty in Planning
• Planning should reduce uncertainty but,
with all this uncertainty:
– How do we decide on durations?

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

– How do we decide on resources?
– How can we ensure safety?
– How do we make sure that the environment
is not adversely affected?
• Without being able to do these, we
cannot produce good plans.
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 Uncertainty in Planning
• We need good records (information)
• We need to carry out sufficient

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

investigations
• We have to investigate alternatives
• We have to make judgements
• We have to recognise that plans will need
to be updated from time to time – control
action is necessary
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 Uncertainty in Planning
• These solutions will ‘solve’ most planning
problems and help reduce uncertainty in
construction projects

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

However:

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 Situation 1
• Many tasks in projects have to be
repeated. e.g.
– Pile driving until a particular set is achieved

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

– Submission of plans for planning permission
– Development of designs until client satisfied

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 Question
• How do we determine the duration of
such activities in order to plan the
project?

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

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 Situation 2
• Consider Tingham bypass

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

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Say that the client has
specified:
We have to build the bypass
with bridges at both High Road
and Low Road
But we can only affect
either High Road or Low Road
at any one time – not both at
the same time.

Question:

How do we draw the network

for the project?
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 Possible solution?

Close High Const. High Reopen

Road Road Bridge High Road

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

Start and
Preparation Finish

Close Low Const. Low Reopen

Road Road Bridge Low Road

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 Possible Solution?
• Only if:
– We use resource scheduling (but what
resources?)

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

– Or we use some similar methods to ensure
constraint is obeyed

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Possible Solution?
Which is correct?
Indeed, is either correct?

Close High Const. High Reopen

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

Road Road Bridge High Road

Start and
Preparation Finish

Close Low Const. Low Reopen

Road Road Bridge Low Road

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 Possible Solution?
• We need a ‘Decision Box’

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

Close High Const. High Reopen
Road Road Bridge High Road

Start and Finish

Preparation

Close Low Const. Low Reopen

Road Road Bridge Low Road

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 Possible Solution?
 We need a ‘Decision Box’

Close High Const. High Reopen Close Low Const. Low Reopen
Road Road Bridge High Road Road Road Bridge Low Road

Start and Finish

Preparation

Close Low Const. Low Reopen Close High Const. High Reopen
Road Road Bridge Low Road Road Road Bridge High Road

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 Possible Solution
• Eisner suggested this in the early 1960s
• How do we do the calculations?

H24MPR Construction Risk Lecture 6

• Very difficult!!
• Is the idea any use?

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