Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2008
The preparation of The State of Food The analysis of the impact of high food Ricardo Sibrian, Cinzia Cerri, Rafik
Insecurity in the World 2008 was carried prices at household level was carried Mahjoubi, Seevalingum Ramasawmy
out under the overall leadership of out by the FAO Rural Income Generating and Nathalie Troubat (ESS) provided
Hafez Ghanem, Assistant Director- Activities team led by Benjamin Davis vital support to the data analysis.
General, and the guidance of the with the participation of Alberto Zezza,
management team of the Economic and Gustavo Anriquez, Panagiotis Karfakis Valuable external comments and
Social Development Department. The and David Dawe, while the section inputs were received from Hartwig
technical coordination of the publication “Coping and nutritional outcomes” de Haen, Peter Hazell, Yasmeen Khwaja
was carried out by Kostas Stamoulis received valuable contributions from and Andrew MacMillan. Bruce
and Mark Smulders of the Agricultural Diego Rose of Tulane University, Brian Isaacson provided excellent editorial
Development Economics Division (ESA). Thompson and Marie Claude Dop of the support.
The staff of the Statistics Division (ESS) Nutrition and Consumer Protection
generated the underlying data on Division, and Maarten Immink and The Electronic Publishing Policy and
undernourishment, including the Cristina Lopriore (ESA). Support Branch of the Knowledge and
estimates for 2007. Communication Department (KC)
The chapter “Towards the Summit provided editorial, language editing,
The chapter “Undernourishment around commitments” benefited from technical graphic and production services.
the world” was prepared by the inputs by James Tefft, Panagiotis Translations were provided by the
Economic and Social Development Karfakis, David Dawe and Alberto Meeting Programming and
Department with key technical Zezza (ESA), and Andrew Shepherd Documentation Service of KC.
contributions provided by Henri from the Rural Infrastructure and
Josserand, Kisan Gunjal and Ali Gürkan, Agro-Industries Division. Overall funding was provided under the
Markets and Trade Division (EST); FAO interdepartmental programme on
Ricardo Sibrian (ESS); and Andrew Food Insecurity and Vulnerability
Marx, Jeff Marzilli, Josef Schmidhuber Information and Mapping Systems
and Jakob Skoet (ESA). (FIVIMS).
The designations employed and the presentation of material in the maps do not imply the expression
of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any
country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.
Copies of FAO publications All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for
can be requested from: educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission
from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this
information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission
SALES AND MARKETING GROUP of the copyright holders. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Chief, Electronic
Communication Division Publishing Policy and Support Branch, Communication Division, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla,
Food and Agriculture Organization 00153 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to copyright@fao.org
of the United Nations © FAO 2008
2008
T
serious impact on the poorest smallholder agriculture in the
the World 2008 represents populations in the world, developing world.
FAO’s ninth progress report on drastically reducing their already As discussed in the report,
world hunger since the 1996 World low purchasing power. High FAO’s undernourishment
Food Summit (WFS). In previous food prices have increased estimates for the period 1990–92
editions, FAO has expressed deep levels of food deprivation, while to 2003–05 have been revised on
concern over the lack of progress in placing tremendous pressure on the basis of new standards for
reducing the number of hungry achieving internationally human energy requirements
people in the world, which has agreed goals on hunger by 2015. established by the United Nations
remained persistently high. This report also examines (UN) and 2006 revisions of UN
This year’s report focuses on how high food prices present population data.
high food prices, which are having a an opportunity to relaunch
Key messages
2 High food prices share much of the blame. The most rapid
increase in chronic hunger experienced in recent years
occurred between 2003–05 and 2007. FAO’s provisional
world, but they will have to be accompanied by the provision
of essential public goods. Smallholder gains could fuel
broader economic and rural development. Farming
estimates show that, in 2007, 75 million more people were households can see immediate gains; other rural
added to the total number of undernourished relative to households may benefit in the longer run if higher prices
2003–05. While several factors are responsible, high food turn into opportunities for increasing output and creating
prices are driving millions of people into food insecurity, employment.
worsening conditions for many who were already
food-insecure, and threatening long-term global food
security. 6 A comprehensive twin-track approach is required.
Governments, donors, the United Nations, non-
governmental organizations, civil society and the private
Foreword
4 Millions more food-insecure – urgent action and substantial
investments needed
Technical annex
45 Updated parameters
48 Tables
56 Notes
S
oaring food prices have Summit and Millennium Summit signal the desperation caused by
triggered worldwide concern hunger reduction targets is soaring food and fuel prices for
about threats to global food measured. Early gains in hunger millions of poor and also middle-
security, shaking the unjustified reduction achieved in a number of class households. Analysis in this
complacency created by many years developing regions by the mid-1990s report shows that high food prices
of low commodity prices. From 3 to have not been sustained. Hunger has have a particularly devastating effect
5 June 2008, representatives of 180 increased as the world has grown on the poorest in both urban and
countries plus the European Union, richer and produced more food than rural areas, the landless and female-
including many Heads of State and ever in the last decade. As this report headed households. Unless urgent
Government, met in Rome to express has pointed out many times, this measures are taken, high food prices
their conviction “that the disappointing outcome reflects the may have detrimental long-term
international community needs to lack of concerted action to combat effects on human development as
take urgent and coordinated action to hunger despite global commitments. households, in their effort to deal
combat the negative impacts of Soaring food prices have reversed with rising food bills, either reduce
soaring food prices on the world’s some of the gains and successes in the quantity and quality of food
most vulnerable countries and hunger reduction, making the consumed, cut expenditure on health
populations”. At the G8 Summit in mission of achieving the and education or sell productive
Japan in July 2008, the leaders of the internationally agreed goals on assets. Children, pregnant women
world’s most industrialized nations hunger reduction more difficult. The and lactating mothers are at highest
voiced their deep concern “that the task of reducing the number of risk. Past experience with high food
steep rise in global food prices, hungry people by 500 million in the prices fully justifies such fears.
coupled with availability problems in remaining seven years to 2015 will
a number of developing countries, is require an enormous and resolute A strategic response:
threatening global food security”. global effort and concrete actions. the twin-track approach
Moving away from Poorest and most vulnerable The food crisis brought about by
hunger reduction goals worst hit soaring food prices in many
developing countries needs an
The concerns of the international Food price increases have urgent and concrete response. At the
community are well founded. For the exacerbated the situation for many same time, it should be recognized
first time since FAO started countries already in need of that high food prices are the result of
monitoring undernourishment emergency interventions and food a delicate balance between food
trends, the number of chronically assistance due to other factors such supply and demand. These two facts
hungry people is higher in the most as severe weather and conflict. show that, more than ever before,
recent period relative to the base Countries already afflicted by the twin-track approach to hunger
period. FAO estimates that, mainly as emergencies have to deal with the reduction advocated by FAO and its
a result of high food prices, the added burden of high food prices on development partners is key to
number of chronically hungry people food security, while others become addressing not only the threats to
in the world rose by 75 million in more vulnerable to food insecurity food security caused by high food
2007 to reach 923 million. because of high prices. Developing prices but also the opportunities that
The devastating effects of high countries, especially the poorest, arise. In the immediate term,
food prices on the number of hungry face difficult choices between carefully targeted safety nets and
people compound already worrisome maintaining macroeconomic stability social protection programmes are
long-term trends. Our analysis and putting in place policies and urgently required in order to ensure
shows that in 2003–05, before the programmes to deal with the that everyone is able to access the
recent rise in food prices, there were negative impact of high food and fuel food they need for a healthy life. In
6 million more chronically hungry prices on their people. parallel, the focus should be on
people in the world than in 1990–92, Riots and civil disturbances, which helping producers, especially small-
the baseline period against which have taken place in many low- and scale farmers, to boost food
progress towards the World Food middle-income developing countries, production, mainly by facilitating
&
H
igher food prices have
triggered an increase in <7E\eeZfh_Y[_dZ[n
hunger worldwide. Provisional
FAO estimates show that the number >cYZm
of chronically hungry people in 2007 '(%
increased by 75 million over and '%%-
above FAO’s estimate of 848 million
undernourished in 2003–05, with
much of the increase attributed to '%%
high food prices (details in Table 1,
page 48). This brought the number '%%,
of undernourished worldwide to &,%
923 million in 2007. Given the
continued and drastic price rises in
staple cereals and oil crops well into
the first quarter of 2008, the number &)%
of people suffering from chronic '%%+
hunger is likely to have increased '%%*
further.
&&%
At 923 million people, the number ? ; B 6 B ? ? 6 H D C 9
of undernourished in 2007 was more
&..-'%%%2&%% HdjgXZ/;6D#
than 80 million higher than in
1990–92, the base period for the
World Food Summit (WFS) hunger '
reduction target. This makes the task
DkcX[hie\kdZ[hdekh_i^[Zf[efb[_dj^[Z[l[bef_d]mehbZ"
of bringing the number of
'//&Å/(je(&&-
undernourished to 420 million by
2015 more difficult, especially in an B^aa^dch
environment of high food prices and &%%%
uncertain global economic
prospects.
The impact of rising food prices on .%%
the proportion of undernourished
people (the Millennium Development
-%%
Goal [MDG] 1 hunger indicator) is
worrisome. Good progress in
reducing the share of hungry people ,%%
in the developing world had been
achieved – down from almost
+%%
20 percent in 1990–92 to less than &..%Ä.' &..*Ä., '%%(Ä%* '%%,
18 percent in 1995–97 and just above HdjgXZ/;6D#
16 percent in 2003–05. The estimates
show that rising food prices have
thrown that progress into reverse,
with the proportion of reduction targets has suffered a undernourishment is confirmed by
undernourished people worldwide serious setback in terms of both the an analysis of household-level data
moving back towards 17 percent. number of undernourished and the (pages 22–27). The analysis confirms
Hence, amid soaring food prices, prevalence of hunger. a negative impact of soaring food
progress towards achieving The estimated impact of high food prices, especially on the poor and
internationally agreed hunger prices on the global estimates of most vulnerable.
&)
&'
&%
HjW" 6h^VVcY
HV]VgVc i]ZEVX^[^X
- 6[g^XV )&
&..%Ä.' &..*Ä., '%%(Ä%* '%%, ')
HdjgXZ/;6D# HdjgXZ/;6D#
*
H[]_edWbY^Wd][i_ddkcX[hWdZfhefehj_ede\kdZ[hdekh_i^[Zf[efb[
8]Vc\Z^ccjbWZgb^aa^dch 8]Vc\Z^cegdedgi^dc
*% )
)% (
(%
'
'%
&% &
% %
"&%
"&
"'%
"'
"(%
")% "(
"*% ")
6h^VVcYi]Z AVi^c6bZg^XV CZVg:Vhi HjW"HV]VgVc 6h^VVcYi]Z AVi^c6bZg^XV CZVg:Vhi HjW"HV]VgVc
EVX^[^X VcYi]Z VcYCdgi] 6[g^XV EVX^[^X VcYi]Z VcYCdgi] 6[g^XV
8Vg^WWZVc 6[g^XV 8Vg^WWZVc 6[g^XV
&..%Ä.'id&..*Ä.,
&..*Ä.,id'%%(Ä%*
>beVXid[]^\]eg^XZh'%%,
HdjgXZ/;6D#
Caribbean and the Near East and more than a decade of steady worldwide in 2007 validate concerns
North Africa regions have also progress toward the WFS goal). about a global food security crisis
experienced increases in hunger as a Overall, the rising prevalence of following high food prices, at least in
result of rising food prices (a sharp hunger and the estimated increase the short term.
reversal for Latin America after of 75 million undernourished people
The box on page 7 describes how FAO produced estimates on world Using a different methodology, the United States Department
hunger for 2007. Partly as a result of the updated parameters, the of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that the impact of high food
calculation of the number of undernourished is based on the prices has resulted in an increase in the number of
assumption that the distribution of dietary energy intake within a undernourished of 133 million people in 70 countries analysed.1
country or region remained unchanged between periods of “low” A key distinction between the two approaches for estimating
and “high” food prices. On the other hand, the household-level hunger relates to the way in which inequality in the distribution
analysis (pages 22–27) shows that, as a result of higher food prices, of food available for human consumption is calculated.
the poor are proportionately worse off than the rich in the short run. Compared with FAO, USDA uses a higher (and constant)
In-depth analysis of eight countries has shown that the cut-off point for determining the hunger threshold. It uses a
distribution of per person dietary energy supply among value of 2 100 kilocalories per person per day while FAO values
households deteriorates following drastic increases in food depend on the age and gender distribution in each country,
prices. Thus, FAO’s estimate of the global impact of high food typically ranging from as low as 1 600 to 2 000 kilocalories per
prices on hunger may well be an underestimate. Therefore, it can person per day.
safely be stated that high food prices have resulted in at least a 1 United States Department of Agriculture. 2008. Food Security Assessment,
2007, by S. Rosen, S. Shapouri, K. Quanbeck and B. Meade. Economic Research
further 75 million hungry people – people being deprived of access Service Report GFA-19 (available at www.ers.usda.gov/PUBLICATIONS/GFA19/
to sufficient food on a daily basis. GFA.PDF).
A
s agricultural commodity
prices rose sharply in 2006 ;lebkj_ede\<7E\eeZfh_Y[_dZ_Y[i"'/,'Å(&&.
and 2007 and continued to rise
even further in early 2008, the forces
>cYZm
behind soaring food prices were (%%
examined from various perspectives
in an effort to design response '*%
options. This section lists some of
the main drivers behind soaring food '%%
prices.1 Medium-term projections
indicate that, while food prices &*%
should stabilize in 2008–09 and
subsequently fall, they will remain &%%
above their pre-2004 trend level for
the foreseeable future.2 *%
The FAO index of nominal food
prices doubled between 2002 and %
2008. In real terms, the increase was &.+& &.+* &.,* &.-* &..* '%%*
less pronounced but still dramatic. ;6DgZVa[ddYeg^XZ^cYZm ;6D[ddYeg^XZ^cYZm
The real food price index began CdiZ/ &..-Ä'%%%2&%%# HdjgXZ/;6D#
rising in 2002, after four decades of
predominantly declining trends, and
spiked sharply upwards in 2006 and ,
2007. By mid-2008, real food prices
were 64 percent above their 2002 HWj_ee\mehbZY[h[WbijeYaijekj_b_pWj_ed
levels. The only other period of
significantly rising real food prices
EZgXZciV\Z
since this data series began (%
occurred in the early 1970s in the
L]ZVi
wake of the first international oil '+
crisis. G^XZ
Be they policy measures,
''
investment decisions or emergency 8dVghZ\gV^ch 8ZgZVahidiVa
interventions, appropriate actions to
&-
address the human and economic
impacts of soaring food prices
&)
require a thorough understanding of
the underlying driving forces.
&%
These driving forces are many and '%%)$%* '%%*$%+ '%%+$%, '%%,$%- '%%-$%.
complex, and they include both
HdjgXZ/;6D#
supply-side and demand-side
factors. Long-term structural trends
underlying growth in demand for
food have coincided with short-term Supply-side forces agriculture policies in recent years.
cyclical or temporary factors One result has been significantly
adversely affecting food supply, Stock levels and market volatility. lower levels of cereal stocks
thus resulting in a situation where Several of the world’s major cereal compared with earlier years. The
growth in demand for food producers (China, the European ratio of world cereal stocks to
commodities continues to outstrip Union, India and the United States of utilization is estimated at
growth in their supply. America) have changed their 19.4 percent for 2007/08, the lowest
-
Global overview with large populations would
obviously have an important impact
DkcX[he\kdZ[hdekh_i^[Z
f[efb[_dj^[mehbZ"(&&)Å&+
F
AO’s long-term estimates of on the overall reduction of hunger in
undernourishment at the the world. Among these, China
c_bb_edi
regional and country levels for has made significant progress in CZVg:VhiVcY 9ZkZadeZY
the period from 1990–92 to 2003–05 reducing undernourishment Cdgi]6[g^XV Xdjcig^Zh
(( &+
(using the FAOSTAT database) following years of rapid economic
AVi^c6bZg^XVVcY
confirm insufficient progress growth. i]Z8Vg^WWZVc
towards the WFS and MDG hunger The proportion of people who )*
>cY^V
reduction targets even before the suffer from hunger in the total '(&
negative impact of soaring food population remains highest in sub-
8]^cV
prices. Worldwide, 848 million people Saharan Africa, where one in three &'(
suffered from chronic hunger in people is chronically hungry. Latin
2003–05, the most recent period for America and the Caribbean were
which individual country data are continuing to make good progress in
available. This number is slightly hunger reduction before the
higher than the 842 million people dramatic increase in food prices; HjW"HV]VgVc
6h^VVcYi]ZEVX^[^X
who were undernourished in together with East Asia and the Near ZmXajY^c\ 6[g^XV
'&'
1990–92, the WFS and MDG baseline East and North Africa, these regions 8]^cVVcY>cY^V
&-.
period. maintain some of the lowest levels of
HdjgXZ/;6D#
The vast majority of the world’s undernourishment in the developing
undernourished people live in world (Table 1, page 48).
developing countries, which were
home to 832 million chronically Sub-Saharan Africa overall and agriculture-sector
hungry people in 2003–05. Of these development, placed a burden on
people, 65 percent live in only seven Sub-Saharan Africa’s population hunger reduction efforts. However,
countries: India, China, the grew by 200 million between the while the overall number of
Democratic Republic of the Congo, early 1990s and 2003–05, to undernourished people in the
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and 700 million. This substantial region increased by 43 million
Ethiopia. Progress in these countries increase, coupled with insufficient (from 169 million to 212 million),
.
Fhefehj_edie\kdZ[hdekh_i^[Zf[efb[_dZ[l[bef_d]Yekdjh_[i"'//&Å/(WdZ(&&)Å&+
EgZkVaZcXZd[jcYZgcdjg^h]bZci
-%
*jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY *Ä.jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY &%Ä&.jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY
,%
+%
*%
)%
(%
'%
&%
%
6a\Zg^V
6g\Zci^cV
8]^aZ
8dhiVG^XV
8jWV
:\nei
<VWdc
>gVc
>haVb^XGZe#d[
?dgYVc
@VoV`]hiVc
@jlV^i
@ng\nohiVc
AZWVcdc
A^WnVc
6gVW?VbV]^g^nV
BVaVnh^V
BZm^Xd
BdgdXXd
GZejWa^Xd[@dgZV
HVjY^6gVW^V
Hng^Vc6gVWGZejWa^X
Ijc^h^V
Ijg`Zn
Jc^iZY6gVW:b^gViZh
Jgj\jVn
?VbV^XV
7gVo^a
<jnVcV
BVjg^i^jh
Ijg`bZc^hiVc
Hjg^cVbZ
BVjg^iVc^V
8]^cV
<]VcV
C^\Zg^V
7jg`^cV;Vhd
8dadbW^V
:aHVakVYdg
Ig^c^YVYVcYIdWV\d
BVa^
EVgV\jVn
6oZgWV^_Vc
=dcYjgVh
KZcZojZaV
7da^kVg^VcGZe#d[
<Zdg\^V
8iZY>kd^gZ
JoWZ`^hiVc
K^ZiCVb
:XjVYdg
AZhdi]d
CZeVa
EZgj
J\VcYV
<jViZbVaV
&..%Ä.' '%%(Ä%*
J\VcYV
<jViZbVaV
E]^a^ee^cZh
<j^cZV
>cYdcZh^V
EVcVbV
I]V^aVcY
HlVo^aVcY
7Zc^c
AVdEZdeaZh
9Zb#GZe#
BnVcbVg
CVb^W^V
6gbZc^V
9db^c^XVcGZejWa^X
>cY^V
Hg^AVc`V
HjYVc
7da^k^V
8dc\d
C^XVgV\jV
8VbZgddc
EV`^hiVc
7dihlVcV
8VbWdY^V
HZcZ\Va
7Vc\aVYZh]
BVaVl^
Bdc\da^V
C^\Zg
<VbW^V
9Zb#EZdeaZh
GZe#d[@dgZV
@ZcnV
NZbZc
IV_^`^hiVc
Jc^iZYGZe#d[
IVcoVc^V
BVYV\VhXVg
Id\d
BdoVbW^fjZ
8]VY
A^WZg^V
GlVcYV
O^bWVWlZ
8ZcigVa6[g^XVcGZe#
OVbW^V
6c\daV
:i]^de^V
H^ZggVAZdcZ
=V^i^
7jgjcY^
:g^igZV
9Zb#GZe#d[i]Z
8dc\d
HdjgXZ/;6D#
&% &&
=hemj^_dW]h_Ykbjkh[\ehX[ijWdZmehij
IkXh[]_edWbjh[dZi_dikX#IW^WhWd7\h_YW
f[h\ehc[hi_d7\h_YW
EgZkVaZcXZd[jcYZgcdjg^h]bZci 6kZgV\ZVccjVaX]Vc\Z&..%Ä'%%*
-% *
,%
)
+%
(
*%
)% '
(% &
'% %
&%
"&
%
LZhi6[g^XV :Vhi6[g^XV Di]Zg8ZcigVa Hdji]Zgc 9ZbdXgVi^X "'
6[g^XV 6[g^XV GZejWa^X 6\g^XjaijgVa ;ddY 8ZgZVa 8ZgZVa
d[i]Z8dc\d kVajZVYYZY egdYjXi^dc egdYjXi^dc n^ZaYh
Latin America and the Caribbean levels of national income, strong However, elsewhere in the region,
economic growth and strong progress has not been as uniform.
Among all the subregions, South productivity growth in their Costa Rica, Jamaica and Mexico
America has been the most agriculture sectors, five countries in have joined Cuba on the list of
successful in reducing hunger, with South America (Argentina, Chile, countries that successfully reached
10 out of 12 countries well on their Guyana, Peru and Uruguay) have both the WFS and MDG hunger
way towards achieving the MDG 1 all reached the WFS and MDG reduction targets in 2003–05.
target. Backed by relatively high targets. On the other hand, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Haiti and Panama
&' continue to experience difficulties
in reducing the prevalence of hunger.
KdZ[hdekh_i^c[dj_dBWj_d7c[h_YWWdZj^[9Wh_XX[Wd
Despite facing persistently high
WdZ_dj^[D[Wh;WijWdZDehj^7\h_YW levels of political and economic
instability, poverty and hunger, Haiti
B^aa^dch EZgXZciV\Z
,% &) has seen a small reduction in
undernourishment since 1990–92.
+% &' However, with 58 percent of the
*% &% population suffering from chronic
hunger, it has one of the highest
)% - levels of undernourishment in the
(% + world.
&*
Fhe]h[iiWdZi[jXWYai0hWj_eie\dkcX[he\kdZ[hdekh_i^[Z
WdZfh[lWb[dY[e\kdZ[hdekh_i^c[dj"'//&Å/(je(&&)Å&+
GVi^d
)#% *jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY *Ä.jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY &%Ä&.jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY
(#*
HZiWVX`
(#%
'#*
'#%
&#*
&#%
%#*
%#%
Egd\gZhh
8jWV
@ng\nohiVc
@jlV^i
8]^aZ
Jgj\jVn
?VbV^XV
<VWdc
BZm^Xd
BdgdXXd
6a\Zg^V
?dgYVc
<jnVcV
<]VcV
8]^cV
7gVo^a
Hjg^cVbZ
Ijg`bZc^hiVc
C^\Zg^V
8dadbW^V
BVjg^i^jh
Ig^c^YVY
VcYIdWV\d
7jg`^cV;Vhd
BVjg^iVc^V
:aHVakVYdg
<Zdg\^V
6oZgWV^_Vc
BnVcbVg
K^ZiCVb
EZgj
I]V^aVcY
=dcYjgVh
:XjVYdg
CVb^W^V
EVgV\jVn
CZeVa
E]^a^ee^cZh
AVdEZdeaZh
9Zb#GZe
BVa^
J\VcYV
>cYdcZh^V
7Zc^c
AZhdi]d
EVcVbV
8iZY>kd^gZ
<j^cZV
GVi^dd[egdedgi^dcd[jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY^c'%%(Ä%*idi]Vi^c&..%Ä.'B9<iVg\Zi2%#*
GVi^dd[cjbWZgd[jcYZgcdjg^h]ZY^c'%%(Ä%*idi]Vi^c&..%Ä.'L;HiVg\Zi2%#* CdiZ/ 8
&+
Fhe]h[iiWdZi[jXWYai_dh[ZkY_d]kdZ[hdekh_i^c[dj
JemWhZij^[ 8]^cV
K^ZiCVb
M<IjWh][j I]V^aVcY
7gVo^a
<]VcV
C^\Zg^V
EZgj
:i]^de^V
JoWZ`^hiVc
>cYdcZh^V
NZbZc
BVYV\VhXVg
@ZcnV
9Zb#EZdeaZhGZe#d[@dgZV
Jc^iZYGZe#d[IVcoVc^V
EV`^hiVc
>cY^V
9Zb#GZe#d[i]Z8dc\d
"+% ")% "'% % '% )% ")% "'% % '% )% +%
8]Vc\Z^ccjbWZgb^aa^dch 8]Vc\Z^cegdedgi^dc
GZYjXi^dc >cXgZVhZ
egd\gZhh hZiWVX`
JemWhZij^[ <Zdg\^V
C^XVgV\jV
C:=jWh][j <]VcV
:i]^de^V
6gbZc^V
BdoVbW^fjZ
8]VY
6c\daV
OVbW^V
HlVo^aVcY
Jc^iZYGZe#d[IVcoVc^V
7dihlVcV
JoWZ`^hiVc
<VbW^V
A^WZg^V
9Zb#EZdeaZhGZe#d[@dgZV
7jgjcY^
9Zb#GZe#d[i]Z8dc\d
")% "'% % '% )% +% "'% "&% % &% '% (% )%
8]Vc\Z^cegdedgi^dc 8]Vc\Z^ccjbWZgb^aa^dch
>cXajYZhIV^lVcEgdk^cXZd[8]^cV#:hi^bViZh[dg[dgbZg:i]^de^VE9GjhZY[dg&..%Ä.'# HdjgXZ/;6D#
HZiWVX`
Egd\gZhh
AZhdi]d
EVcVbV
8iZY>kd^gZ
<j^cZV
KZcZojZaV
7da^kVg^VcGZe#d[
<jViZbVaV
HlVo^aVcY
JoWZ`^hiVc
6gbZc^V
C^XVgV\jV
8dc\d
Hg^AVc`V
HjYVc
8VbZgddc
8VbWdY^V
BVaVl^
9db^c^XVcGZe#
7Vc\aVYZh]
>cY^V
Bdc\da^V
7da^k^V
C^\Zg
IV_^`^hiVc
HZcZ\Va
EV`^hiVc
@ZcnV
7dihlVcV
NZbZc
Jc^iZYGZe#d[IVcoVc^V
9Zb#EZdeaZh
GZe#d[@dgZV
<VbW^V
BdoVbW^fjZ
:i]^de^V
8]VY
6c\daV
Id\d
O^bWVWlZ
GlVcYV
8ZcigVa6[g^XVcGZe#
=V^i^
H^ZggVAZdcZ
:g^igZV
OVbW^V
BVYV\VhXVg
7jgjcY^
A^WZg^V
9Zb#GZe#
d[i]Z8dc\d
K a
has stalled since about 1995–97. The the ageing population amount to Key monitoring ratios
high proportion of undernourished in about 6.5 million tonnes per year in
India in the base period (24 percent) cereal equivalent. Nevertheless, Both the WFS and the MDG targets
combined with a high population the prevalence of hunger in India aim to “halve hunger” by 2015. The
growth rate means that India has decreased from 24 percent in 1996 World Food Summit called for
had a challenging task in reducing 1990–92 to 21 percent in 2003–05, the number of hungry people to be
the number of undernourished marking progress towards meeting reduced by 50 percent by 2015, while
(Table 1, page 48). the MDG hunger reduction target. under MDG 1, countries have
The increase in the number of committed themselves to “halve,
undernourished in India can be Progress and setbacks between 1990 and 2015, the
traced to a slowing in the growth by country proportion of people who suffer from
(even a slight decline) in per capita hunger”. To measure progress or
dietary energy supply for human With the number of chronically setbacks in terms of achieving these
consumption since 1995–97. On the hungry people in the world in targets, FAO calculates a simple set
demand side, life expectancy in India 2003–05 at about the same level as of ratios for each country, dividing
has increased from 59 to 63 years in 1990–92 and rising steeply with the estimate of the most recent
since 1990–92. This has had an soaring food prices, the WFS target number or proportion of hungry
important impact on the overall of halving that number by 2015 has people by the corresponding figure in
change in population structure, with become much more challenging. the base period 1990–92. A value of
the result that in 2003–05 the growth Barely one-third of the developing 0.5 (one-half) means that the target
in minimum dietary energy countries included in FAO’s of “halving hunger” has been
requirements had outpaced that of estimates have succeeded in reached. A value lower than 1.0
dietary energy supply. reducing the number of means that progress has been
The combination of the declining undernourished people at all since achieved, while a value higher than
per capita growth rate in total dietary 1990–92. Of those, only 25 were on 1.0 implies a setback. Figure 15
energy supply and higher per capita track in 2003–05, before the onset of presents the values for the WFS and
dietary energy requirements resulted high food prices, to achieve the WFS the MDG hunger reduction targets
in an estimated 24 million more target. The challenge will be all the separately for each country (data
undernourished people in India in greater if high food prices persist, listed in Table 1 on page 48).
2003–05 compared with the base placing an even larger burden on
period. The increased food needs of fighting hunger.
T
he above analysis of long-term monitors the situation on all measures to address hunger
trends in undernourishment continents and maintains a list of hotspots. This analysis provides a
highlights the marked countries that are in crisis. Many basis for assessing the impact of
prevalence of chronic hunger in such countries remain on the GIEWS the sharp rise in agricultural
countries that have experienced food list for a long time, or appear commodity, food and fuel prices on
crises over several consecutive frequently, and are regarded as countries already in crisis (and on
years. Food crises can emerge at any having “hunger hotspots” – areas many others highly vulnerable to
time and anywhere in the world as a where a significant proportion of these price shocks). Given the
consequence of severe adverse people are severely affected by uncertain impact of soaring food
weather conditions, natural persistent or recurring hunger and and fuel prices on countries,
disasters, economic shocks, conflicts malnutrition. Figure 17 shows a map households and individuals around
or a combination of these factors. In of countries in crisis that require the world, the distinction between
support of timely action to mitigate external assistance (33 countries as countries already “in crisis” and
– and with the desire to prevent – of August 2008). others “at risk” has become much
a further deterioration in the food A retrospective analysis of the less clear, and this presents a
security situation of affected nature and underlying causes of past series of challenges for monitoring
countries, the FAO Global and ongoing food crises is crucial to and for timely and appropriate
Information and Early Warning the framing of appropriate early warning of impending food
System (GIEWS) continuously emergency interventions and policy crises.
&,
9ekdjh_[i\WY_d]\eeZYh_i[i
H]dgi[Vaa^cV\\gZ\ViZ[ddYegdYjXi^dc$hjeea^Zh
L^YZhegZVYaVX`d[VXXZhh
HZkZgZadXVa^oZY[ddY^chZXjg^in
&-
9Wki[ie\\eeZ[c[h][dY_[i"'/.'Å(&&- -+ .-
CjbWZgd[ZbZg\ZcX^Zh
,% '//&i
&&
+% '%
)%
(&&&i
(%
', ',
'%
%
&.-& &.-( &.-* &.-, &.-. &..& &..( &..* &.., &... '%%& '%%( '%%* '%%, HjYYZcdchZi HdX^d"ZXdcdb^X
=jbVc"^cYjXZYY^hVhiZgh
CVijgVaY^hVhiZgh
HadldchZi LVgVcYXdc[a^Xi
IdiVa HdjgXZ/;6D# HdjgXZ/;6D#
Socio-economic factors. Human- US$121 billion in 2007, a 40-percent For example, if one considers the
induced crises can be divided into increase. The percentage rise for the nations that import most of their
war or conflict-related ones and basic grains component of their food petroleum products and foodgrain
disasters induced mostly by socio- imports is even greater – 50 percent. requirements and also have high
economic shocks. The latter can in By the end of 2008, the food import rates of undernourishment, these
turn stem from internal factors (such bills of LIFDCs could cost four times would include Eritrea, Haiti, Liberia,
as poor economic or social policies, as much as in 2000, representing a the Niger, Sierra Leone and
conflicts over landownership or a tremendous burden on these Tajikistan.7 Most are in sub-Saharan
deteriorating public health situation) countries. Africa and many are already on the
or from external factors. External While LIFDCs as a group are GIEWS list of countries in crisis.
factors may include a collapse in a spending considerably more for
country’s export commodity prices basic imported foods, there are large Investment implications
resulting in a loss of export earnings differences among countries and
or a sharp increase in the price of population groups. These differences Donor countries and development
imported food commodities (as in the depend on many factors, including: agencies are particularly concerned
last two years). The relative share of the degree of dependency on with the need to prioritize emergency
food crises caused by socio- imports; food consumption patterns; assistance and investment decisions
economic factors has risen in the the degree of urbanization; the in the context of the current global
past three decades from about extent to which international prices food crisis, and they are calling for
2 percent in the 1980s to 11 percent have influenced domestic consumer lists of countries that are at risk.
in the 1990s and 27 percent since and producer prices for basic FAO has recently completed an
2000. Although the relative share of commodities (degree of price analysis of key factors determining
countries with food crises caused by transmission); real exchange-rate the degree to which countries are
war and conflicts has declined, the movements; and the effectiveness of vulnerable to high food prices, taking
absolute number of such crises has policy measures taken by into account the extent to which they
risen in the same period, with huge governments to deal with the crisis. are net importers of energy products
loss of life, destruction of assets and
displacement of populations.
High food prices have affected Pakistan provides an illustration of the in Pakistan are still much lower than in
countries in various ways, but their complexity of commodity price dynamics neighbouring countries, particularly
impact has been felt more severely at the national and regional levels. Afghanistan (which has been struggling
in countries with a structural deficit The country is a relatively large regional with a combination of unfavourable
in food production, where incomes producer and consumer of wheat, weather and insecurity). The large price
are low, and where most households usually in a surplus situation. Wheat differentials between the two countries
spend a high proportion of their production in 2008 is down just over have resulted in substantial informal
limited budgets on food. Many of 6 percent from last year’s record level, cross-border flows and in Pakistan
these countries already have high but wheat imports are expected to be importing wheat from international
rates of undernourishment. Most between 2.5 and 3 million tonnes. markets. At the same time, a reduced
actually fall within a typology Despite the government’s strong capacity to subsidize fertilizer has
developed by FAO in the 1970s intervention in the domestic wheat resulted in a 60-percent increase in
(following a previous global food sector, prices have increased sharply di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertilizer
crisis) known as low-income food- since mid-2007. Indeed, by June 2008, prices at the producer level, which has
deficit countries, or LIFDCs.6 In 2008, they had nearly doubled their levels of a led to a sharp drop in its use and affected
a total of 82 LIFDCs are expected year earlier in deficit provinces. In this yields adversely.
to spend nearly US$169 billion on case, a major factor is that wheat prices
food imports compared with
F
AO global estimates show that appropriate policies and programmes female-headed households that are
high food prices have increased to target those most in need. most vulnerable to sharp rises in
world hunger. While stories FAO has examined the impact of basic food prices. The relative impact
abound in the media about affected high food prices on household is not uniform, even among poor
individuals, families and welfare. The empirical analysis households, and depends on a
communities, it is important to described in this section shows that, number of factors.
understand who ultimately gains and in the short term, the vast majority of Particularly important is the
who loses from high food prices, poor urban and rural households are extent to which households produce
especially among the poor, and why. hit hardest by higher prices. Among food for their own consumption
This knowledge will enable the poor, it is the landless and compared with what they buy in the
marketplace. A household is defined
as a net food buyer when the value of
food staples it produces is less than
Philippines: rice price increasing poverty the value of food staples it
consumes. Poor households tend to
be net buyers of food, even in rural
Soaring rice prices are pushing more National Coordinator of the Global Call to areas where agriculture and staple
families in the Philippines into poverty, Action against Poverty in Philippines, said food production determine the
making it more difficult for the country to that “income is barely enough for daily principal livelihoods for many.
achieve MDG 1 (halving the proportion of needs yet there is a decrease in According to FAO data from nine
people living on less than US$1 per day by [household] purchasing power”. developing countries, about three-
2015). More than 24 percent of Philippine Leonardo Zafra, a security guard in quarters of rural households and
families were living in extreme poverty in Manila, said that his household’s only 97 percent of urban households are
1991, and while that rate had declined to option was to borrow from moneylenders net food buyers (see table).
13.5 percent in 2003, it has started rising at exorbitant interest rates: “Our debts Net food buyers stand to lose from
again. are piling on top of each other”. His wage an increase in the price of food
Inflation rose by nearly 2 percentage of 260 pesos per day (about US$6.50) was staples. The extent of the impact
points to 8.3 percent from March to April not enough to pay the bills for utilities, depends in part on dietary patterns.
2008 and reached 9.6 percent in May, the education and food. Households that spend a large
highest level since 1999. Joel Saracho, Source: IRIN news service, May/June 2008. proportion of their income on
internationally traded food staples
(such as wheat, rice and maize) are
more likely to suffer a decline in
overall welfare. These include most
Net buyers of staple foods urban households. The extent of this
decline depends on the ability of a
All households Poor households household to shift consumption
Urban Rural All Urban Rural All towards less-expensive foods that do
(Percentage)
not generally enter global markets,
Albania, 2005 99.1 67.6 82.9 * * *
such as roots and tubers. In contrast,
Bangladesh, 2000 95.9 72.0 76.8 95.5 83.4 84.2
households with land and those that
Ghana, 1998 92.0 72.0 79.3 * 69.1 *
Guatemala, 2000 97.5 86.4 91.2 98.3 82.2 83.1
derive some income from the
Malawi, 2004 96.6 92.8 93.3 99.0 94.8 95.0 production and sale of food staples
Nicaragua, 2001 97.9 78.5 90.4 93.8 73.0 79.0 that are also traded internationally
Pakistan, 2001 97.9 78.5 84.1 96.4 83.1 85.4 could benefit from higher world
Tajikistan, 2003 99.4 87.0 91.2 97.1 76.6 81.4 prices. However, high fuel and
Viet Nam, 1998 91.1 32.1 46.3 100.0 40.6 41.2 fertilizer prices are likely to offset
Unweighted average 96.4 74.1 81.7 97.2 87.9 78.5 some of these gains. In the medium
* Insufficient data.
Source: FAO.
term, most farmers tend to shift
production towards more profitable
'%
7'&#f[hY[djh_i[_dj^[fh_Y[e\\eeZijWfb[i^_jifeeh^eki[^ebZi^WhZ[ij
GjgVa]djhZ]daYh JgWVc]djhZ]daYh
LZa[VgZX]Vc\Z LZa[VgZX]Vc\Z
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
V
h]
V
h]
^
V
jV
Vc
Vb
jV
Vc
Vb
Vl
Vl
c^
c^
Vc
Va
Vc
Va
iV
iV
YZ
YZ
V\
hi
V\
hi
WV
WV
Zb
Zb
C
C
^h
^h
Va
Va
<]
<]
`^
`^
aV
aV
Vg
Vg
_^`
_^`
B
B
Zi
Zi
6a
6a
EV
EV
Vi
Vi
c\
c\
^X
^X
IV
IV
K^
K^
<j
<j
C
C
7V
7V
Using representative household survey data from a number of beans); Malawi and Nicaragua (maize, rice and beans); Pakistan
countries, the likely short-term welfare impact of rising food and Tajikistan (wheat, rice and beans); and Viet Nam (rice, maize
prices was calculated for groups of households differentiated by and beans).
income, landholdings and livelihood strategies. The welfare The reported results refer to the short-term impact of high
impact in this case is the amount of income needed to restore a food prices only. Household responses that involve changes in
household to its position prior to the income shock of high prices, production and consumption behaviour over time are not
and therefore the real income lost to high food prices. This is included. Moreover, it is possible that price increases become
illustrated in Figures 20–23 as a percentage change in total more generalized over time in some countries, eventually
consumption expenditure. This estimate is determined by affecting staples that are not internationally traded, e.g. cassava.
comparing how the shares of the main staple products in In this case, the results may be underestimates for those groups
household consumption and income vary following a 10-percent of households that spend substantial shares of their income on
increase in the prices of the main staple products. The non-tradable staples. Finally, for simplicity, the simulation
methodology employed is similar to that in Deaton1 and in Minot assumes that price changes are transmitted equally to different
and Goletti.2 types of households, be they urban consumers or smallholder
In each country, the main staples were chosen based on their farmers in remote areas.
importance in the share of total food expenditure as follows: 1 A. Deaton. 1989. Rice prices and income distribution in Thailand: a non-
parametric analysis. The Economic Journal, 99(395): 1–37.
Albania (wheat, maize and rice); Bangladesh (rice, wheat and 2 N. Minot and F. Goletti. 2000. Rice market liberalization and poverty in
pulses); Ghana (maize and rice); Guatemala (maize, wheat and Viet Nam. IFPRI Research Report No. 114. Washington, DC, IFPRI.
consistent manner (see box on page In terms of the percentage loss in number and/or the diversity of meals
10) and the increases in staple food income, the results show that the they consume, or to reduce
prices vary among locations within poorest households are hit hardest expenditure on essential non-food
countries. Using a uniform by rising food prices in both urban items, such as health care and
10-percent increase illustrates how and rural areas. This is a cause for education.
the effects are distributed among concern because the erosion of their Households tend to be less
different household groups and real income harms not only their affected in countries where the diet
allows more meaningful cross- current ability to cover basic needs consists largely of food staples that
country comparisons. Simulating but also their prospects of escaping are not internationally traded. For
the higher price increases occurring poverty. In order to cope with the example, Ghanaian households
in many countries would yield added stress of high food prices, appear to be relatively insulated
higher impacts, but the distribution poor households may be forced to from swings in international food
among household groups would sell assets that would reduce their markets because a large share of
remain the same. livelihood base, to reduce the their diet is based on local staples
'&
M[b\Wh[[\\[Yjie\W'&#f[hY[djh_i[_dijWfb[\eeZfh_Y[iedhkhWb^eki[^ebZi"XobWdZemd[hi^_f
LZa[VgZX]Vc\Z LZa[VgZX]Vc\Z
8Wd]bWZ[i^ ) CWbWm_ )
( (
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
"* "*
D[fWb ) D_YWhW]kW )
( (
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
"* "*
FWa_ijWd ) L_[jDWc )
( (
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
"* "*
AVcYdlcZgh AVcYaZhh
CdiZ/ 7jWWaZh^oZgZegZhZcihi]ZgZaVi^kZedgi^dcd[i]ViXViZ\dgnd[i]ZgjgVaedejaVi^dci]Vi^haVcYZYdgaVcYaZhh# HdjgXZ/;6D#
''
M[b\Wh[[\\[Yjie\W'&#f[hY[djh_i[_dijWfb[\eeZfh_Y[iedhkhWb^eki[^ebZi"Xob_l[b_^eeZ
LZa[VgZX]Vc\Z LZa[VgZX]Vc\Z
8Wd]bWZ[i^ ) CWbWm_ )
( (
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
"* "*
D[fWb ) D_YWhW]kW )
( (
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
"* "*
FWa_ijWd ) L_[jDWc )
( (
' '
& &
% %
"& "&
"' "'
"( "(
") ")
"* "*
6\g^XjaijgZ"WVhZY]djhZ]daYh Di]Zg]djhZ]daYh
CdiZ/ 7jWWaZh^oZgZegZhZcihi]ZgZaVi^kZedgi^dcd[i]ViXViZ\dgnd[i]ZgjgVaedejaVi^dcheZX^Va^o^c\^cV\g^XjaijgZdgcdc"V\g^XjaijgVaVXi^k^i^Zh# HdjgXZ/;6D#
T
he previous section described food-based or a combination of both. and subject to contextual factors,
how rising staple food prices In countries where people have including the geographical
could reduce household access to a more diversified diet, distribution of the food price
welfare, which is important in households will respond to a sudden increases, the number of
determining access to food, and dramatic increase in food prices commodities affected in any one
especially for the poorest. In the by first reducing the number of foods country and the choices made at the
short term, households have few consumed from different food groups household level that affect food,
choices or none as to how to cope while leaving overall consumption of health and care practices. Figure 24
with high food prices, which often staples unchanged. illustrates possible household
leads to a reduction in daily diets. High prices of internationally response options and the impact that
However, in the medium-to-longer traded commodities, such as staple various coping strategies may have on
term, households may employ grains and vegetable oils, are the nutritional status of individuals.
different strategies to cope with the expected to increase the prevalence In general, in analysing the
drop in purchasing power caused by of malnutrition among both urban possible nutrition impacts of
higher food prices. and rural households, with a greater household and individual behaviour
Depending on the severity, impact in countries with already low in response to high food prices,
frequency and duration of food price levels of dietary diversity. The links coping strategies can be classified as
increases, household coping between high staple food prices and being either food-based or non-food-
strategies could be food-based, non- nutritional outcomes are complex based. Among the food-based coping
')
>eki[^ebZYef_d]X[^Wl_ekhiWdZdkjh_j_ed_cfWYji\ebbem_d]WikZZ[dh_i[_d\eeZfh_Y[i
>ciV`Zd[
X]ZVeZg\gV^ch
dghiVgX]n
hiVeaZh
:cZg\nVcY
egdiZ^c^ciV`Z
>ciV`Zd[jhjVa
hiVeaZ[ddYh
B^Xgdcjig^Zci Fhej[_d#[d[h]o
^ciV`Z cWbdkjh_j_ed
>ciV`Zd[
Fh_Y[e\ cdc"hiVeaZ
H[Wb_dYec[
ijWfb[\eeZ [ddYh
C_Yhedkjh_[dj
Z[\_Y_[dY_[i
I^bZheZci
ldg`^c\dc
^cXdbZ" 8VgZ"\^k^c\
\ZcZgVi^c\
VXi^k^i^Zh
:meZcY^ijgZdc
;gZfjZcXnVcY
]ZVai]!
hZkZg^ind[
ZYjXVi^dc!di]Zg
^aacZhh
cdc"[ddY^iZbh
;ddY"WVhZYXde^c\higViZ\^Zh
Cdc"[ddY"WVhZYXde^c\higViZ\^Zh
HdjgXZ/;6D#
Brazzaville (the Congo), fats and among rural infants whose mothers
Indonesia: price rises mean vegetables became even less had been pregnant at the time of the
greater malnutrition prominent in the daily diet.9 price increases.
Women and children are During the drought and financial
Although the Indonesian economy is particularly vulnerable to the crisis of 1997/98 in Indonesia,
growing at about 6 percent a year, some nutritional effects of high food mothers of poor families responded
100 million Indonesians live on less prices, as they are more likely to by reducing their own dietary energy
than US$1 a day. UNICEF data show suffer from micronutrient intake in order to feed their children
that child malnutrition is rising. Dozens deficiencies when driven to consume better, resulting in increased
of children under five died of less diversified daily diets. Figure 26 maternal undernutrition.10 Children
malnutrition in the first six months of shows that on average only were also at greater risk of being
2008. In the same period, the cost of 40–50 percent of children under two given up for adoption by their
staple soybean-based products such as years of age have an appropriately families in order to reduce the
tofu and tempe, a source of vital diversified diet in sub-Saharan number of mouths to feed.
protein, rose by about 50 percent owing Africa, with particularly low values of Household purchases of more
to soaring commodity prices on the only 10 percent in the Niger and nutritious protein-rich foods were
international markets. Togo. Following a drought-induced reduced in order to afford the main
Source: IRIN news service, June 2008. increase in maize prices in Zambia in staple (rice), leading to an increased
2001, the rate of stunting increased prevalence of anaemia in both
mothers and children. The effects
were particularly severe for infants
'+
conceived and weaned during the
9^_bZh[dW][Z,Å()cedj^i_dikX#IW^WhWd7\h_YWh[Y[_l_d] crisis. These examples demonstrate
Wffhefh_Wj[ dkcX[he\\eeZ]hekfi the long-term and intergenerational
effects of rising food prices on the
7Zc^c *'#- growth and development of children.
7jg`^cV;Vhd &.#+ As explained in an earlier section,
8VbZgddc +(#) the actual impact of high staple food
:g^igZV (.#- prices, in particular of tradable
:i]^de^V ),#. cereals, also depends on prevailing
<VWdc ).#' cultural food norms and habits in
<]VcV )*#,
different countries.
@ZcnV *'#+
Impact on undernutrition
BVYV\VhXVg )*#.
BVaVl^ (.#+
It has been shown above that higher
BVa^ ')#-
staple food prices are likely to lead to
BdoVbW^fjZ *%#-
increased undernourishment
C^\Zg -#-
(following reduced dietary energy
C^\Zg^V *%#-
intake). A general association
GlVcYV *.#, between levels of undernourishment
Id\d &(#* and prevalence of undernutrition in
J\VcYV +-#- children under five years of age is
OVbW^V **#, apparent in Figure 27. Thus, it is
O^bWVWlZ ))#' reasonable to conclude that when
% '% )% +% -% levels of undernourishment in the
EZgXZciV\Z total population increase, child
I]ZVeegdeg^ViZcjbWZgd[[ddY\gdjeh^hYZ[^cZYVhi]gZZ[dgWgZVhi[ZYX]^aYgZc!VcY[djg[dgcdc"WgZVhi[ZYX]^aYgZc# undernutrition increases as well.
HdjgXZ/6#<#Bj`jg^V!B#I#@di]Vg^VcYC#6WYZggV]^b#'%%+# >c[VciVcYndjc\X]^aY[ZZY^c\jeYViZh#
8VakZgidc!Jc^iZYHiViZhd[6bZg^XV!DG8BVXgd#
Particularly critical levels of
undernutrition occur when
JcYZgcdjg^h]ZY^cidiVaedejaVi^dc
With the increase in food prices in Côte quality of the medicines as they are
d’Ivoire, poorer urban people are seeking usually less effective than the originals –
*
to cut down on essential non-food items, a serious problem when treating
such as medicines. An example is Drissa potentially deadly illnesses like malaria.
Kone, a man with a severe respiratory Fake medicines sometimes contain a mix
*Ä. infection and a prescription for medicines of chemicals that further harms health.
that would cost CFA franc 35 000 (US$83) Dr Ambroise Kouadio, a doctor in
at official prices. Drissa Kone has no Abidjan, says that, although the risks of
&%Ä&. hope of raising enough money to buy the using counterfeit medicines are fairly
medicines. His solution is to buy well understood, the number of people
counterfeit medicines at Abidjan’s like Kone who are turning to them is
'%Ä() Adjame market, where he can find an increasing. “The state has built many
illegal reproduction of the original drug more health centres and hospitals, but
at a fraction of the price. He said “I can the people are still poor. They have to
(*
buy the same medicines at the market by choose between health care and eating,
the individual tablet not the packet, and and they usually choose to eat,” said
% &% '% (% )% *% pay just CFA franc 150 [US$0.35] per pill. Dr Kouadio.
For CFA franc 500 [US$1.19], I can get
JcYZglZ^\]iX]^aYgZc
HijciZYX]^aYgZc
enough medicine to last me three days!”
The downside, however, concerns the Source: IRIN news service, July 2008.
HdjgXZ/;6D#
undernourishment exceeds populations, and education means willingness to take their children to
10 percent in the total population. that health conditions deteriorate health centres. The prevalence of
Based on this association, it is and children will have less schooling, child stunting and wasting rose and
expected that undernutrition in thus adversely affecting their future the nutritional quality of infant
children under five years of age will income-earning opportunities and complementary foods declined.11
increase, especially if prices remain overall development prospects. Increased female employment
high and no preventive measures are Households may attempt to may lead to less or lower-quality
taken. engage in new income-generating child care at home. It may interfere
activities. Time constraints among with breastfeeding, home-based food
Non-food coping women with small children may have preparation, sanitation practices and
strategies negative health and nutrition-related seeking medical assistance when
consequences for children. Disease children are sick. Older siblings may
Having examined the short-term and malnutrition are closely related. have to take over from mothers in
impacts of high food prices on Infections increase the likelihood of providing child care, while being less
undernourishment levels, it is also various types of malnutrition due to equipped to do so. Increased child
necessary to consider the longer- reduced utilization by the body of labour at home or outside may have
term negative effects on nutritional essential nutrients. For example, further negative nutritional
levels and their consequences as routine health activities, such as consequences for children and
households attempt to cope by child growth monitoring and interfere with their education.
decreasing non-food expenditure immunizations, declined in
and/or by increasing their income. Brazzaville after the 1994 CFA franc
Reduced expenditure on health, devaluation, partly because of
already often low among poor mothers’ decreased capacity or
T
he sudden rise in global food supply response and potential and fertilizers. As the box shows, the
prices has triggered a wide productivity increases. Second, ability of government policies to
variety of policy responses export restrictions lower food insulate domestic economies from
around the world. Initial action has supplies in international markets, the external price shock has been
focused on guaranteeing an adequate pushing prices higher and very limited.
food supply locally, keeping aggravating the global situation.
consumer prices low and providing Third, higher subsidies and/or lower The way forward:
support for the most vulnerable. taxes and tariffs increase the the twin-track approach
Policy measures have included an pressure on national budgets and
easing of import taxes and the reduce the fiscal resources available The initial policy responses to the
imposing of export restrictions to for much-needed public investment dramatic increase in food prices
maintain domestic food availability; and other development expenditure. concentrated on improving local food
applying price controls and subsidies In summary, some of the policy supplies and alleviating the
to keep food affordable; and stock measures employed tend to hurt immediate impact on consumers.
drawdowns to stabilize supplies and producers and trade partners and However, it has become clear that in
prices. There has been less actually contribute to volatility of order to deal with the short- and
emphasis, at least initially, on world prices. Experience has shown long-term challenges posed by high
fostering an agricultural supply that price controls rarely succeed in food prices and reinforce the
response. However, the governments controlling prices for long. Moreover, opportunities they present, both
of a number of developing countries they place a heavy fiscal burden on national governments and the
have taken action to provide farmers governments and create international community require
with the support needed to boost disincentives for supply responses by coherent policies and actions. The
domestic food production. farmers. In a number of countries sustainable solution to the problem
A survey of policy responses in applying export controls (or outright of food insecurity in the world lies in
77 countries revealed that in 2007 and bans on exports), some farmers have increasing production and
early 2008 about half of the countries reduced plantings of cereals because productivity in the developing world,
reduced cereal import taxes and more of artificially low domestic prices for especially in LIFDCs, and in ensuring
than half applied price controls or their products coupled with high that the poor and vulnerable have
consumer subsidies in an attempt to prices for inputs such as fuel, seeds access to the food they need.
keep domestic food prices below
world prices.12 One-quarter of the '-
governments imposed some type of
export restriction, and roughly the Feb_YoWYj_edijeWZZh[ii^_]^\eeZfh_Y[i"Xoh[]_ed
same proportion took action to
increase domestic supply by drawing
8djcig^ZhXVggn^c\djieda^XnVXi^dc
on foodgrain stocks. Only 16 percent &%%
of the countries surveyed had not
employed any policy response to -%
mitigate the impact of soaring food
+%
prices. Policy responses varied
considerably by region, with sub- )%
Saharan Africa and Latin America and
the Caribbean showing the lowest '%
number of policy interventions. %
The impact, effectiveness and 6[g^XV :Vhi6h^V :jgdeZVcY AVi^c6bZg^XVVcY CZVg:VhiVcY Hdji]6h^V
8ZcigVa6h^V i]Z8Vg^WWZVc Cdgi]6[g^XV
sustainability of some of the policy
GZYjXZiVmZhdc[ddY\gV^ch
measures are not always clear. First,
>cXgZVhZhjeeanjh^c\[ddY\gV^chidX`h 6eeaneg^XZXdcigdah$egdk^YZXdchjbZghjWh^Y^Zh
by maintaining farmgate prices at >bedhZZmedgigZhig^Xi^dch CdcZ
artificially low levels, policies may be CdiZ/
7VhZYdcegZa^b^cVgn^c[dgbVi^dcXdaaZXiZYWnLdgaY7Vc`hiV[[VcYVbZcYZYWn;6D6eg^a'%%-# HdjgXZ/;6D#
discouraging the much-needed
^aZ
^i^
^V
Vc
gj
^c
Y^
cn
Zh
=V
EZ
YZ
8]
hi
:\
>c
8]
cZ
@Z
l
dc
`^
aV
ih
HZ
7d
>c
7V
Food prices, production availability, a question that is central national governments and
and food security for food security concerns relates to international donors involved in
who participates in the short- and agriculture and rural development.14
I
ncreased food production would long-term response of agriculture to The magnitude of hunger in the
help to restore the supply– high food prices and in meeting world and the difficulties in reducing
demand balance at a lower price future food needs. In other words, it even when food supplies are high
level. High food prices and the increasing food production is a and prices low highlight a
increased incentives they provide necessary but not a sufficient fundamental problem of access to
present an opportunity for condition to address the recent food. Even low food prices will not
agricultural producers to increase increase in food insecurity caused by fully address the problem of
investment and expand production. high food prices (represented by an inadequate access to food, which is
Initial signs indicate that the additional 75 million people now also affected by the ability of the
agriculture sector has responded to hungry) as well as the long-term poor to produce enough food or
these greater incentives with structural insecurity represented by generate sufficient income to buy it.
increased plantings and production. the close to 850 million people who On the other hand, as most poor
However, the need to increase were suffering from hunger even rural households rely on agricultural
food production should not only be before the recent price rises. production for a significant share of
seen in the context of the current their income, increasing agricultural
supply and demand “imbalances”. Why smallholder farmers? productivity is closely related to
Increases in food and agricultural reducing rural poverty. It follows that
production and productivity will be In order to ensure that increased increasing food production and
essential for meeting further food production enhances food productivity should go beyond the
increases in effective demand in security, developing countries must objective of reducing prices in global
the years to come. Demand for be able to exploit their potential to markets – providing an opportunity
food and feed will continue to grow increase agricultural production and for reducing rural poverty and
as a result of urbanization, productivity through a more hunger.
economic growth and rising incomes, conducive policy framework and Realizing the potential of food and
all of which cause a shift in diets increased investment in agriculture agricultural production to reduce
towards higher-value products, and rural development by both poverty and hunger depends largely
including meat and dairy. Projected
population and socio-economic '.
growth will double current food
demand by 2050. CW_p[0[nfbe_jWXb[o_[bZ]Wfi_dikX#IW^WhWd7\h_YW
In order to meet this challenge in
developing countries, cereal yields
IdccZheZg]ZXiVgZ
will need to increase by 40 percent +
and net irrigation water
*
requirements will rise by 40–50
percent. Moreover, some 100–200 )
million hectares of additional land (
may be needed, mainly in sub- '
Saharan Africa and Latin America.13
An estimated 80 percent of the &
access to improved seeds, inputs and development and improved participation is often constrained by:
mechanization. productivity. Market access differs (i) a lack of infrastructure and
among developing regions, with transport; (ii) poor market
Market access. Access to functioning sub-Saharan Africa having the information; (iii) inadequate and
markets for both staples and high- lowest level of access, particularly poorly enforced grades and
value commodities is a key for smallholders. In many standards; and (iv) poor farmer
prerequisite for agricultural developing countries, smallholder organization for bulk marketing.
Fertilizer consumption in sub-Saharan regulations, taxes and rents that diverts than alternatives (such as food aid ) and
Africa was only 8 kilograms per hectare in fertilizer provision from the private to the where they do not affect market
2002, just 1 kilogram more than in 1982 public sector (which tends to allocate mechanisms adversely. “Market-smart”
and 7 kilograms more than in 1962. This supplies inefficiently). subsidies include the use of vouchers
level of fertilizer use is less than With fertilizer prices outpacing redeemable through commercial dealers,
10 percent of that in most other developing agricultural commodity prices (so demonstration packs to stimulate demand
regions. Perhaps as a result, cereal yields undermining the increased production and credit guarantees to encourage
increased by just 50 percent in sub- incentives), small farmers who are net importers to offer credit to their dealers.
Saharan Africa from 1962 to 2002, food buyers may be particularly hurt, as If input subsidies are to be used to
compared with a near tripling in the rest of the high food prices also reduce the funds promote a supply response, several
the developing world in the same period. they have available to purchase fertilizers. constraining factors need to be
Furthermore, as a result of the low Many poor African countries may see a considered. In some locations, adequate
intensity of fertilizer use, Africa’s soils are decline in fertilizer use in the short run supplies may not be available and a
at risk of being mined of nutrients. that could threaten even current levels of subsidy will merely lead to local price
The factors responsible for Africa’s low production, which are already too low. inflation. Subsidies are expensive and can
level of fertilizer use include poor The rapid rise in fertilizer prices has put stress on government budgets,
infrastructure, which increases the costs brought the issue of fertilizer subsidies to causing reductions in spending in other
of fertilizer and reduces availability; high the fore. Such subsidies may be warranted important areas such as education and
risk owing to price volatility and a lack of where there is a clear prospect of health (international donors may have a
irrigation; lack of credit; and a poor significant productivity gains, where they role to play in alleviating these
business environment shaped by are a cheaper form of income transfer constraints). If efforts to target are made
in order to reduce budgetary outlays,
administrative difficulties could prevent
<[hj_b_p[hki[ the subsidies from reaching the
beneficiaries most in need. These
9ZkZade^c\ considerations suggest that although
Xdjcig^Zh
HjW"HV]VgVc fertilizer subsidies can be an effective
6[g^XV short-term response, they are not
AVi^c sustainable in the long run. Whenever
6bZg^XV
input subsidies are used, they should
:VhiVcY
Hdji]ZVhi6h^V involve the private sector in order to
Hdji]6h^V improve and build marketing systems in
the long run.
% &% '% (% )% *% +% ,% -% .% &%% &&%
Sources: FAOSTAT data and M. Morris, V.A. Kelly,
;Zgi^a^oZgVeea^ZY`^ad\gVbheZgXjai^kViZY]ZXiVgZ R.J. Kopicki and D. Byerlee. 2007. Fertilizer use
in African agriculture: lessons learned and good
&.+' &.-' '%%' practice guidelines. Washington, DC, World Bank.
g
g
^
a
V
V
V
V
V
h]
g^V
Vb
eV
Yd
XV
Vc
Va
h^
\j
b
YZ
\Z
cZ
Zb
CZ
cV
C
Vh
jV
Va
<]
gV
aV
C^
B
Yd
Zi
V\
EV
XV
:X
Vi
K^
>c
VY
C^
<j
7V
((
Realizing smallholder potential
?d\hWijhkYjkh[WYY[ii\ehhkhWb^eki[^ebZi
The incentives offered by soaring
food prices provide a favourable
>c[gVhigjXijgZ^cYZm
&#- environment for advancing an
&#+ agricultural reform agenda to meet
&#) future food needs at affordable
&#'
&#%
prices through poverty-reducing
%#- agricultural productivity growth.
%#+ Such an agenda puts particular
%#) emphasis on smallholder farmers,
%#'
%#%
especially in agriculture-based
g
g
^
a
countries.
V
V
V
c
h]
jV
^V
Vb
Vl
V
Yd
XV
Vc
Va
h^
iV
Zg
Ze
YZ
V\
cZ
Zb
C
h
Vh
jV
Va
<]
^\
C
`^
aV
Zi
V\
C
:X
EV
Vi
c\
^X
K^
>c
VY
<j
C
7V
costs. %
Jc^iZYHiViZhd[ C^\Zg^V BVaVl^ OVbW^V 6c\daV
6bZg^XV
1X. Diao, S. Fan, D. Headey, M. Johnson, A. Nin Pratt and B. Yu. (forthcoming). ;^\jgZhdjgXZ/9#>#<gZ\dgnVcY7#A#7jbW#'%%+#
;VXidghV[[ZXi^c\i]Zhjeeand[[Zgi^a^oZg^c
Accelerating Africa’s food production in response to rising food prices – 6\g^XjaijgZVcYGjgVa9ZkZadebZci9^hXjhh^dcEVeZg')#LVh]^c\idc!
hjW"HV]VgVc6[g^XV#
impacts and requisite actions. Xinshen, June 2008. IFPRI Discussion Paper. 98!LdgaY7Vc`#
The ability to produce more food for a property rights on water resources and level of production, while also minimizing
growing world population has improved irrigation systems lead to the the role of rainfall uncertainty in
significantly in recent decades as a result overexploitation of aquifers and agriculture. Irrigation investment projects
of expansion in irrigated cropland. unsustainable irrigation practices that have high rates of return, estimated as
Increasing the proportion of irrigated exhaust, contaminate or at the very least exceeding 15 percent and even reaching
agricultural land has provided a solid increase irrigation costs. Land 30 percent in sub-Saharan Africa.1
base for boosting productivity and degradation is also an outcome of Significant gains in terms of welfare
reducing the volatility of agricultural inefficient use of water resources and improvements are also expected from
yields. With demand for water rising and inadequate irrigation management expanding irrigation investment.
climate change imposing further practices, resulting in productivity Increasing investment in irrigation by
restrictions, efficiency in the management reductions and increasing losses of 1 percent has been estimated as having
of available water resources becomes a cropland. Small-scale farmers are most reduced poverty by nearly 5 percent in
necessary condition for productivity affected by these practices as they lack Kenya.2
increases in agriculture and for food the capacity to secure their rights to
security. water as well as the resources to invest in
In about 25 percent of the world’s more expensive but more effective
irrigated agricultural systems, the rate of pumping tools. 1 World Bank. 2007. World Development
Report 2008: Agriculture for Development.
water withdrawal exceeds that of In Africa, less than 5 percent of Washington, DC.
renewal. Even more worrisome are cropland is irrigated. Large benefits could 2 J. Thurlow, J. Kiringai and M. Gautam. 2007.
Rural investments to accelerate growth and
reports that water is becoming scarce in accrue to small farmers by expansion of poverty reduction in Kenya. Discussion Paper
several regions. Open access or loose irrigated land to increase and stabilize the No. 723, Washington, DC, IFPRI.
F[hY[djW][e\jejWbWhWXb[WdZf[hcWd[djYhefbWdZ_hh_]Wj[Z
EZgXZciV\Z
T
he people most vulnerable to greater incentives to the private than direct provision of food aid.
food price shocks need to be sector to engage in higher-volume, However, they have higher
protected immediately from the more-stable marketing channels. transaction costs than cash transfers
loss of purchasing power caused by However, where food prices are and may restrict the ability of
soaring food prices. Such protection increasing rapidly, the value of households to choose the most
not only saves lives, it can also transfers will need to be adjusted in appropriate expenditure. Moreover,
strengthen livelihoods and promote order to maintain purchasing power, the selling of food stamps in the
longer-term development. Safety and this can complicate fiscal shadow economy may undermine
nets and social protection can planning. programme goals.
prevent and reduce the malnutrition Other approaches to improving Food-supply-based programmes
that has lifelong consequences. More access to food, such as food stamps, provide food or nutritional
secure livelihoods prevent distress are also appropriate where local food supplements directly to individuals
sales of assets, allow investments in markets work and lack of access to or households. They are most
education and health, and keep food is the root cause of hunger. appropriate where food markets are
households from falling into the Food stamps can foster local market not functioning well, so that cash
poverty trap. development, primarily of food transfers or other forms of income
“Safety net” is an umbrella term products, and have the advantage of support are less effective. For
for various types of programmes being more politically acceptable. example, providing cash or food
aimed at assisting vulnerable They may also be more difficult to vouchers in areas where food is not
population groups. They include food divert to “undesirable” consumption readily available could disrupt local
distribution programmes, cash and may be self-targeting (where markets and drive up prices. Such
transfer schemes, various feeding wealthier households are less conditions typically require direct
programmes and employment interested in vouchers or food food aid or “food for work”
schemes. Many countries have one stamps than cash). In addition, food programmes, which constitute the
or more safety net programmes, with stamps have lower transaction costs primary safety net implemented by
varying degrees of coverage.
However, in the context of the
()
current high food prices, one
problem has been that not all ?dj[hdWj_edWbY[h[Wbfh_Y[iWdZ\eeZW_Z
countries have safety net
programmes in place because of
>cYZm B^aa^dcidccZh
budgetary costs and administrative &-% &-
complexity.
Cash transfers include the &+% &+
distribution of cash or cash
&)% &)
vouchers. They can be unconditional
or conditional on participation in &'% &'
health, education or public works
&%% &%
programmes. Cash transfers are
appropriate where food markets -% -
work and where improved ability to
purchase food is the objective of the +% +
intervention. Unrestricted cash
)% )
transfers allow households to make
decisions as to how to spend the '% '
cash, whether on food, essential
% %
non-food items or on investment &.,% &.,* &.-% &.-* &..% &..* '%%% '%%*
needs. Such interventions can also ;6DXZgZVaeg^XZ^cYZm&..-Ä'%%%2&%% ;ddYV^Yh]^eeZYidiVaXZgZVah
foster local market development in
HdjgXZ/;6D#
food and other goods by providing
the World Food Programme. Other programmes can increase local distribution of fortified foods for
types of direct food distribution production and the incomes of small highly vulnerable groups, such as
programmes are warranted where producers and may reduce price children and pregnant or lactating
specific members of the household increases in local markets, thereby women. These stopgap measures
are particularly vulnerable to food contributing to improvements in the should be complemented by
insecurity or malnutrition. In these nutritional status of net food-buying longer-term measures to ensure
cases, school lunches or food families. that low-income households have
supplementation could be necessary. While the idea of a safety net in access to affordable diversified diets.
Direct food-based assistance is the context of high food prices may Examples include supporting
fundamentally different from cash or be conceptually straightforward, the small-scale food industries to
food stamps; it is most appropriate formulation, design and produce weaning foods of good
when an insufficient supply of food is implementation of such a nutritional quality; supporting and
the root cause of hunger. Moreover, programme are complex. Many promoting breastfeeding; providing
such programmes are often possibilities exist and no specific adequate nutrition education
politically more acceptable, perhaps programme design is inherently messages; and conducting growth
because it is more difficult to divert “better”. A particular design should monitoring. Evidence that emerged
the aid to undesirable consumption. depend on local objectives and from Bangladesh in the 1990s
Importantly, food aid is often donated conditions, and many safety nets suggests that macroeconomic food
to the receiving country, with the combine elements of the options policies that keep the price of food
quantity of food aid available often outlined above. Most importantly, staples low can, in combination with
reduced when world prices rise. design should be driven by the needs other food and nutrition
However, the fact that food aid is and circumstances of a particular interventions, help reduce the
often given free of charge may cause country or region and the views of percentage of underweight
governments to ignore other more the beneficiaries rather than by the children.21 Considering the
appropriate and sustainable needs and priorities of donor importance of women’s status for
solutions. countries and agencies. child nutrition, effective measures
Given the importance of should aim at eradicating gender
agricultural livelihoods for the poor Nutritional deficiencies discrimination and reducing power
and food-insecure, especially in inequalities between women and
sub-Saharan Africa and particularly As nutrition problems among men.
in the context of soaring food prices, children and adults are likely to
productive safety nets can also play worsen substantially if high food
an important role. In countries such prices persist, immediate action
as Ethiopia and Malawi, traditional should be taken to mitigate negative
agricultural policy instruments, consequences. For appropriate
including input subsidies, and policy and programme responses to
innovative approaches to crop be implemented, a clear
insurance have become part of social understanding of the specific country
protection. In the short run, the context is essential, as the
smallholder supply response to nutritional impact of coping
higher price incentives may be mechanisms will vary considerably
limited by a lack of access to in different settings and among
essential inputs, such as seeds and different population groups. Food-
fertilizers. In these cases, social based interventions should aim to
protection measures, including the maintain or improve dietary diversity
distribution of seeds and fertilizers in order to prevent increases in
either directly or through a system of micronutrient deficiencies.
vouchers and “smart subsidies”, may Policy and programme responses
be an appropriate response. If include direct interventions such as
implemented effectively, such micronutrient supplementation or
Addressing the threats rise in food prices, close to the urban and rural poor, especially
850 million people worldwide were smallholder rural farmers in
T
he dramatic rise in global food estimated to be undernourished. The affected countries (whose capacities
prices poses a threat to food crisis may drive millions more in to benefit from high food prices are
and nutrition security. It also both rural and urban areas deeper severely constrained by lack of
creates many economic, social, into poverty and hunger. inputs, investment, infrastructure
political and environmental A crisis of this nature and and market access).
challenges with knock-on effects for magnitude requires an urgent
both development and humanitarian comprehensive, coherent and A call for urgent coordinated action
activities. This food crisis endangers coordinated global response to
millions of the world’s most ensure food and nutrition security, On 28 April 2008, the United Nations
vulnerable people and threatens to especially in developing countries, in Secretary-General established the
reverse critical gains made towards a sustainable manner. This response High-Level Task Force (HLTF) on the
reducing poverty and hunger in the must address both immediate and Global Food Crisis under his
past decade. Already before the rapid longer-term needs and target both chairmanship. The HLTF brings
When world leaders met in Rome in early mechanisms to support agriculture people’s livelihoods in developing
June 2008 for the High-Level Conference and environment; countries, and increasing investment
(HLC) on World Food Security, they • increasing smallholder access to in agriculture;
reconfirmed that it is “unacceptable that appropriate seeds, fertilizers, animal • maintaining biodiversity and increasing
862 million people are still feed, technical assistance and other the resilience of food production
undernourished in the world today” and inputs; systems to challenges posed by
urged the international community “to • improving market infrastructure; climate change;
take immediate, urgent and coordinated • ensuring that food, agricultural trade • stepping up investment in science and
action to combat the negative impacts of and overall trade policies are technology for food and agriculture
soaring food prices”. conducive to fostering food security for and increasing cooperation on
It was recognized that immediate life- all through the successful and urgent researching, developing, applying,
and livelihood-saving relief assistance is completion of the Doha Round of trade transferring and disseminating
needed, combined with an urgent need to negotiations and minimized use of improved technologies and policy
help food-insecure countries expand restrictive measures that could approaches;
agriculture and food production. The HLC increase volatility of international • establishing governance and policy
produced a range of recommendations. prices. environments that will facilitate
investment in improved agricultural
Immediate and short term Medium and long term technologies;
Measures should focus on: The current crisis has highlighted the • continuing efforts to liberalize
• responding urgently to requests for fragility of the world’s food systems and international trade in agriculture by
assistance to address hunger and their vulnerability to shocks. While there reducing trade barriers and market-
malnutrition food assistance is an urgent need to address the distorting policies;
emergencies through expanded relief immediate consequences of soaring food • addressing the challenges and
and safety net programmes; prices, it is also vital to combine medium- opportunities posed by biofuels, in
• providing budget and/or balance of and long-term measures, including: view of the world’s food security,
payments support, reviewing debt • embracing a people-centred policy energy and sustainable development
servicing and simplifying the eligibility framework supportive of the poor in needs.
procedures of existing financial rural, peri-urban and urban areas and
together heads of many of the United second set aims to build resilience Rising to the challenge
Nations specialized agencies, funds and contribute to longer-term global
and programmes, Bretton Woods food and nutrition security. Both Leadership must play a critical role
institutions and relevant parts of the require urgent attention, and both in any global response. National
United Nations Secretariat. It has would benefit from strengthened governments should take the lead,
produced a Comprehensive coordination, assessments, but they require redoubled support
Framework for Action (CFA) to guide monitoring, and surveillance and cooperation from the private
global and local actors, both systems. sector, civil society, the
institutions and governments, and it humanitarian community and the
is designed to catalyse urgent and Investment in agriculture international system. The financial
immediate action. FAO has played a is essential implications related to the crisis and
key role in the HLTF and contributed the response are enormous, and they
to the overall strategic and technical FAO strongly believes that renewed require substantial political and
content of the CFA and will play a agricultural investment that is financial commitments from all
major role in its implementation. focused on smallholder farmers and stakeholders. Critical needs vastly
The CFA identifies priority actions rural development would turn exceed the response witnessed thus
for improving global food security agriculture into a vibrant economic far. Increased allocations should be
and furthering poverty reduction in sector with positive effects on additional to current funding levels
the context of the present food crisis. poverty reduction. In order to and not divert resources away from
Consistent with the Declaration succeed, increased agricultural other critical social sectors
agreed by world leaders at the FAO productivity must be accompanied by necessary to achieving the MDGs,
High-Level Conference on World enhanced investment in local and such as education and health.
Food Security in June 2008 (see box) regional market development and by These actions and outcomes can
and with key messages in this report, comprehensive adjustments to only be achieved through partnership
the CFA highlights two general sets distorting trade practices. At the at all levels. FAO will continue to
of actions in support of a same time, sustainable models of provide leadership and coordination
comprehensive response to the agricultural production must be in this respect and to assist national
global food crisis. The first set aims adopted in order to ensure that new governments and affected
to meet the immediate needs of solutions are consistent with long- communities in addressing what
food-insecure populations, while the term environmental needs. constitutes a truly global challenge.
T
his technical annex describes the number and prevalence attained height, vary by country and
the impact of a revision in two (percentage) of the hungry from year to year depending on the
key parameters used in the population in a country. When the gender and age structure of the
FAO methodology for estimating threshold changes, so too may the population. For an entire population,
undernourishment. The revised number and percentage of people the MDER is the weighted average of
parameters were introduced estimated to be undernourished. the MDERs of the different gender–
following new population statistics Dietary energy requirements differ age groups in the population. It is
from the United Nations Population by gender and age. They also vary for expressed in kilocalories (kcal) per
Division in 2006 and new human different levels of activity. person per day. Particularly in
energy requirements established by Accordingly, MDERs, the amount of countries with a high prevalence of
FAO, the United Nations University energy needed for light activity and a undernourishment, a large
(UNU) and the World Health minimum acceptable weight for proportion of the population typically
Organization (WHO) in 2004.22 FAO
utilizes both parameters for deriving 6
minimum dietary energy
requirements (MDERs) on a per 9^Wd][i_dh[Yecc[dZ[Z[d[h]oh[gk_h[c[dji"'/.'WdZ(&&*
person basis, which are unique for
each year and country in the world.
:cZg\ngZfj^gZbZcih
The revised parameters were applied `XVa$`^ad\gVb$YVn
to the 1990–92 benchmark period 8eoi =_hbi
&'% &'%
and to all subsequent years for
which FAO has produced results. As &%% &%%
consumes dietary energy levels close comparison), all other factors held in most countries owing to changes
to the cut-off point, making the constant (green bars in Figure B). in the population.
MDER a highly sensitive parameter. The 2006 revised population
In most countries, the new human Revised population estimates estimates also updated gender and
energy requirement standards have age distributions. Most significant
resulted in an overall drop in both This edition of The State of Food are the changes in long-term trends
the amount of food required and the Insecurity in the World uses revised for ageing. As countries develop,
prevalence of undernourishment. population estimates produced by population growth rates typically
The new standards have meant a the United Nations Population decline and life expectancy
drop in MDERs for children and a Division in 2006. The 2006 estimates increases. As the proportion of
slight increase in those for are provided for the period adults relative to children increases,
adolescents and adults. The 1950–2005 and with projections up to food needs rise, with a
difference has been greatest in those 2050. The 2006 revision includes corresponding increase in
countries with a relatively high higher estimates for most undernourishment. Between
proportion of children under 12 years countries, with the result that 1990–92 and 2003–05, the number of
of age. Figure A compares the old population estimates for developing undernourished people in developing
and new standards for boys and countries have increased by some countries increased by some
girls. On average, the new standards 35 million people for the 1990–92 66 million as a result of an ageing
have resulted in a drop in MDERs of benchmark period, while the revised population, all other factors held
88 kcal per person per day in the population estimates are some constant.
world, a decrease in food needs 53 million higher than previous Population pyramids for China help
equivalent to almost 60 million estimates for 2003–05. illustrate these demographic trends.
tonnes of cereals. The effect of these Given that estimated country-level As China’s adult population increased
new standards has been to reduce total dietary energy supplies to relative to the number of children
the estimated number of calculate undernourishment have between 1990–02 and 2003–05,
undernourished people in the not changed, available food is MDERs increased by an average of
developing world by 107 million in shared among more people, thus 43 kcal per person per day, resulting
the 1990–92 base period and by reducing the daily energy supply in an increase in the number of
106 million in 2001–03 (the most available per person, and increasing undernourished people of 70 million.
recent period that can be used for the prevalence of undernourishment The combined effect of increases in
the number of people and changes to
8 the gender–age structure together
with food redistribution available for
:_\\[h[dY[X[jm[[d(&&(WdZ(&&,Kd_j[ZDWj_edifefkbWj_ed human consumption based on the
[ij_cWj[i\ehZ[l[bef_d]Yekdjh_[i 2006 population revision is an
increase in undernourishment
'%%+^cXgZVhZXdbeVgZYl^i]'%%'b^aa^dch
+% estimates in the developing world of
*( *( some 42 million people for 1990–92
and of about 73 million people for
))
2001–03, all other factors held
)% constant (yellow bars in Figure B).
(*
The increase is greatest in countries
with large populations and high
'% population growth rates.
Net impact
'//& (&&+
BVaZh ;ZbVaZh BVaZh ;ZbVaZh
6\Z 6\Z
-% -%
,*Ä,. ,*Ä,.
,%Ä,) ,%Ä,)
+*Ä+. +*Ä+.
+%Ä+) +%Ä+)
**Ä*. **Ä*.
*%Ä*) *%Ä*)
)*Ä). )*Ä).
)%Ä)) )%Ä))
(*Ä(. (*Ä(.
(%Ä() (%Ä()
'*Ä'. '*Ä'.
'%Ä') '%Ä')
&*Ä&. &*Ä&.
&%Ä&) &%Ä&)
*Ä. *Ä.
%Ä) %Ä)
-% +% )% '% % % '% )% +% -% -% +% )% '% % % '% )% +% -%
B^aa^dch B^aa^dch B^aa^dch B^aa^dch
EdejaVi^dc\gdli]gViZ2&#*) EdejaVi^dc\gdli]gViZ2%#+-
Egdedgi^dcjcYZg&*nZVgh2'- Egdedgi^dcjcYZg&*nZVgh2'' HdjgXZ/JCEdejaVi^dc9^k^h^dc#
both the numbers and trends in exception of Belarus, Republic of 5 million. The combined impact of
undernourishment around the world, Moldova, the Russian Federation and these other changes has been an
as discussed in the main text of this Ukraine (which are now included in increase in the number of
report. Europe). This has had the effect of undernourished in the developing
The combined difference of adding 10 million undernourished world of about 65 million in the
new energy requirements and the people in the developing world in the base period and one of 48 million in
2006 population revisions is a base period (1990–92). 2001–03.
decrease in FAO’s estimates of Furthermore, new information
undernourishment in the developing obtained by FAO has resulted in
world of 65 million people in 1990–92 major revisions to the data for China,
and of 33 million people in 2001–03 Indonesia and Myanmar, adding a
(brown bars in Figure B). further 50 million undernourished
people in the base period. The
Other data changes ongoing process of reviewing the
food balance sheets and supply
A number of other changes have utilization accounts has also
been made to the data that affect the resulted in small changes to the data
global undernourishment estimates. for many countries, with the overall
The “developing world” now includes result of increasing the number of
the countries of the Commonwealth undernourished in the developing
of Independent States (CIS), with the world in the base period by about
ASIA AND THE PACIFIC*** 3 478.6 582.4 535.0 541.9 0.9 왔 20 17 16 0.8 왔
East Asia 1 386.1 183.5 152.0 131.8 0.7 왔 15 12 10 0.6 왔
China [2] 1 312.4 178.0 143.7 122.7 0.7 왔 15 12 9 0.6 왔
People’s Dem. Rep. of Korea [4] 23.5 4.2 6.7 7.6 1.8 왖 21 31 32 1.6 왖
Mongolia [4] 2.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 왖 30 40 29 1.0 왔
Republic of Korea [1] 47.7 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Southeast Asia 544.5 105.6 88.6 86.9 0.8 왔 24 18 16 0.7 왔
Cambodia [4] 13.7 3.8 4.8 3.6 0.9 왔 38 41 26 0.7 왔
Indonesia [3] 223.2 34.5 26.7 37.1 1.1 왖 19 13 17 0.9 왔
Lao People’s Dem. Rep. [3] 5.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 왗왘 27 26 19 0.7 왔
Malaysia [1] 25.2 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Myanmar [3] 47.6 18.1 14.8 8.8 0.5 왔 44 34 19 0.4 왔
Philippines [3] 82.9 13.3 12.8 13.3 1.0 왗왘 21 18 16 0.8 왔
Thailand [3] 62.6 15.7 12.3 10.9 0.7 왔 29 21 17 0.6 왔
Viet Nam [3] 83.8 18.7 15.6 11.5 0.6 왔 28 21 14 0.5 왔
South Asia 1 468.4 282.5 284.8 313.6 1.1 왖 25 22 21 0.9 왔
Bangladesh [4] 150.5 41.6 51.4 40.1 1.0 왔 36 40 27 0.7 왔
India [4] 1 117.0 206.6 199.9 230.5 1.1 왖 24 21 21 0.9 왔
Nepal [3] 26.6 4.0 5.3 4.0 1.0 왗왘 21 24 15 0.7 왔
Pakistan [4] 155.4 25.7 23.7 35.0 1.4 왖 22 18 23 1.0 왖
Sri Lanka [4] 19.0 4.6 4.4 4.0 0.9 왔 27 24 21 0.8 왔
Central Asia 57.7 4.0 4.7 6.5 1.6 왖 8 9 11 1.4 왖
Kazakhstan [1] 15.1 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Kyrgyzstan [1] 5.2 0.8 0.6 ns na 왔 17 13 – na 왔
Tajikistan [4] 6.5 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.2 왖 34 42 34 1.0 왗왘
Turkmenistan [2] 4.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 왗왘 9 9 6 0.6 왔
Uzbekistan [3] 26.2 1.0 1.1 3.6 3.7 왔 5 5 14 3.0 왖
Western Asia 15.9 6.1 4.4 2.2 0.4 왔 38 27 14 0.4 왔
Armenia [4] 3.0 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 왔 46 34 21 0.5 왔
Azerbaijan [3] 8.3 2.0 2.1 1.0 0.5 왔 27 27 12 0.4 왔
Georgia [3] 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 왔 47 24 13 0.3 왔
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 544.2 52.6 51.8 45.2 0.9 왔 12 11 8 0.7 왔
North and Central America 141.9 9.3 10.2 8.8 0.9 왔 8 8 6 0.8 왔
Costa Rica [1] 4.3 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
El Salvador [3] 6.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.3 왖 9 11 10 1.1 왖
Guatemala [3] 12.4 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.6 왖 14 17 16 1.2 왖
Honduras [3] 6.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 왔 19 16 12 0.6 왔
Mexico [1] 103.4 ns 4.3 ns na na – 5 – na na
Nicaragua [4] 5.4 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.5 왔 52 40 22 0.4 왔
Panama [3] 3.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.2 왖 18 20 17 0.9 왔
The Caribbean 33.7 7.5 8.6 7.6 1.0 왖 26 28 23 0.9 왔
Cuba [1] 11.2 0.6 1.5 ns na 왔 5 14 – na 왔
(continued)
NEAR EAST AND NORTH AFRICA*** 420.0 19.1 29.6 33.0 1.7 왖 6 8 8 1.3 왖
Near East 270.1 15.0 25.3 28.4 1.9 왖 7 11 11 1.4 왖
Iran (Islamic Republic of) [1] 68.7 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Jordan [1] 5.4 ns 0.2 ns na na – 5 – na na
Kuwait [1] 2.6 0.4 0.1 ns na 왔 20 5 – na 왔
Lebanon [1] 4.0 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Saudi Arabia [1] 23.0 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Syrian Arab Republic [1] 18.4 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Turkey [1] 72.0 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
United Arab Emirates [1] 3.9 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Yemen [4] 20.5 3.8 5.0 6.5 1.7 왖 30 31 32 1.1 왖
North Africa 149.9 4.0 4.3 4.6 1.2 왖 – – – na na
Algeria [1] 32.4 ns 1.5 ns na na – 5 – na na
Egypt [1] 71.6 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya [1] 5.8 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
Morocco [1] 30.2 1.2 1.4 ns na 왔 5 5 – na 왔
Tunisia [1] 10.0 ns ns ns na na – – – na na
(continued)
20 TO 34% UNDERNOURISHED
Low income
Asia and the Pacific
Bangladesh 2 230 80 2 7 3 81 H 9 L 11 L 20 25 48 43
Cambodia 2 160 73 3 3 9 76 H 10 L 14 L 31 19 36 37
Dem. People’s Rep. of Korea 2 150 61 7 6 7 74 R 11 R 15 L nd 61 23 37
Pakistan 2 340 49 1 16 15 63 R 10 L 27 R 21 34 38 37
Tajikistan 2 070 66 3 9 10 66 R 11 R 23 R 24 25 17 27
Near East and North Africa
Yemen 2 010 59 1 11 8 69 R 11 R 21 R 14* 27 46 53
Sub-Saharan Africa
Gambia 2 140 53 1 21 6 60 R 9 L 30 H 33 53 20 22
Kenya 2 040 50 6 8 12 69 R 11 R 20 R 27 21 20 30
Malawi 2 130 56 18 3 2 78 H 10 L 12 L 33 17 31 45
Niger 2 140 66 2 6 5 70 R 11 R 19 R 40* 17 19 46
Senegal 2 150 62 3 15 8 65 R 10 L 25 R 17 41 17 16
Lower middle income
Asia and the Pacific
Armenia 2 310 52 6 7 15 69 R 12 R 19 R 21 64 3 13
India 2 360 58 2 13 6 71 R 9 L 20 R 18 29 43 48
Mongolia 2 190 45 3 9 29 56 R 13 R 31 H 25 57 6 21
Sri Lanka 2 360 56 2 3 6 74 R 9 L 17 R 17 15 29 14
(continued)
10 TO 19% UNDERNOURISHED
Low income
Asia and the Pacific
Lao People's Dem. Rep. 2 300 72 3 2 7 77 H 11 R 12 L 44 20 40 42
Myanmar 2 380 60 1 10 8 68 R 11 R 21 R 57** 30 32 32
Nepal 2 430 68 4 10 5 73 R 10 L 17 R 36 15 39 49
Uzbekistan 2 440 58 2 12 18 62 R 12 R 25 R 28 37 5 15
Viet Nam 2 650 68 1 4 13 73 R 10 L 17 R 21 26 25 30
Sub-Saharan Africa
Benin 2 290 39 32 9 4 71 R 10 L 19 R 32 40 23 38
Burkina Faso 2 620 73 1 5 5 68 R 12 R 20 R 32 18 37 35
Côte d’Ivoire 2 520 31 33 13 4 73 R 8 L 19 R 23 45 20 34
Guinea 2 540 47 14 14 3 70 R 9 L 21 R 20 33 26 35
Mali 2 570 67 2 8 10 69 R 11 R 19 R 37 30 33 38
Uganda 2 380 21 22 7 6 73 R 9 L 17 R 33 12 20 32
Lower middle income
Asia and the Pacific
Azerbaijan 2 530 55 6 6 14 71 R 11 R 17 R 10 51 7 13
Georgia 2 480 56 4 7 18 67 R 13 R 21 R 17 52 3 12
Indonesia 2 440 64 6 7 5 74 R 9 L 17 R 13 47 28 42
Philippines 2 470 55 3 6 13 73 R 9 L 17 R 14 62 28 30
Thailand 2 490 48 2 7 12 71 R 9 L 20 R 10 32 9 12
Latin America and the Caribbean
Colombia 2 670 34 6 12 16 68 R 9 L 23 R 12 72 7 12
Ecuador 2 300 33 3 19 18 58 R 10 L 32 H 7 62 9 23
El Salvador 2 530 50 2 8 11 69 R 11 R 20 R 11 60 10 19
Guatemala 2 270 52 1 9 8 69 R 10 L 21 R 23 47 23 49
Honduras 2 590 46 1 11 13 67 R 10 L 23 R 14 46 11 25
Paraguay 2 590 29 14 17 15 58 R 10 L 32 H 22 58 5 14
Peru 2 450 44 14 6 11 73 R 11 R 16 R 7 72 8 24
Sub-Saharan Africa
Lesotho 2 430 79 3 2 5 77 H 11 R 12 L 17 19 20 38
Namibia 2 290 45 14 8 13 69 R 11 R 20 R 12 35 24 24
Swaziland 2 320 46 5 5 15 67 R 11 R 21 R 11 24 10 30
(continued)
5 TO 9% UNDERNOURISHED
Low income
Sub-Saharan Africa
Ghana 2 690 30 40 7 4 78 H 8 L 14 L 37 47 18 22
Mauritania 2 790 47 1 13 18 64 R 12 R 24 R 24 40 32 35
Nigeria 2 600 44 19 13 3 69 R 9 L 22 R 23 47 29 38
Lower middle income
Asia and the Pacific
China 2 990 51 6 7 21 61 R 12 R 27 R 13 40 7 11
Turkmenistan 2 780 60 2 9 20 64 R 13 R 23 R 20* 46 11 15
Latin America and the Caribbean
Guyana 2 830 46 4 6 16 69 R 11 R 20 R 31 28 14 11
Upper middle income
Latin America and the Caribbean
Brazil 3 090 33 4 15 20 59 R 11 R 30 H 6 84 6 11
Jamaica 2 810 32 6 13 17 62 R 11 R 27 R 6 53 4 3
Suriname 2 710 41 2 14 11 67 R 9 L 24 R 6 74 13 10
Sub-Saharan Africa
Mauritius 2 880 47 1 14 14 64 R 11 R 25 R 6 42 15 10
(continued)
and AP = animal products, excluding fats. Not shown: other vegetable SOURCES
products (pulses, nuts, oilseeds, sweeteners, fruits, vegetables and Dietary energy supply for human consumption, energy from food and
condiments). “Animal products” includes meat, offal, dairy products, eggs energy-yielding nutrients: FAO.
and fish. Income group and share of agricultural value added to GDP: World Bank
4 Diet composition as the proportion of energy from nutrients (World Development Indicators online database).
(carbohydrates [CHO], protein and fat) in total energy available for human Share of urban population: United Nations, Department of Economic and
consumption: H = high – proportion above 75, 15 and 30 percent for Social Affairs, Population Division. 2008. World Urbanization Prospects: The
carbohydrates, protein and fat, respectively; R = within recommended 2007 Revision. New York, USA.
range; and L = low – proportion below 55, 10 and 15 percent for Prevalence of underweight and stunting in children less than five years
carbohydrates, protein and fat, respectively. old: UNICEF/WHO.
1 Further discussion on major driving forces 10 S.A. Block, L. Kiess, P. Webb, S. Kosen, 18 For examples of input credit schemes, see:
behind soaring food prices in 2007–08 can be R. Moench-Pfanner, M.W. Bloem and J. Govereh, J. Nyoro and T.S. Jayne. 1999.
found in FAO’s The State of Agricultural C.P. Timmer. 2004. Macro shocks and micro Smallholder commercialization, interlinked
Commodity Markets 2008 (forthcoming) and outcomes: child nutrition during Indonesia’s markets and food crop productivity:
The State of Food and Agriculture 2008. crisis. Economics and Human Biology, cross-country evidence in eastern and
2 OECD–FAO. 2008. OECD–FAO Agricultural 2(1): 21–44. southern Africa. Michigan, USA, Department
Outlook 2008–2017. Paris, OECD Publishing. 11 Y. Martin-Prével, F. Delpeuch, P. Traissac, of Agricultural Economics and Department of
3 International Energy Agency. 2006. World J.P. Massamba, G. Adoua-Oyila, K. Coudert Economics, Michigan State University.
Energy Outlook 2006. Paris. OECD Publishing. and S. Trèche. 2000. Deterioration in the J. Tefft. (forthcoming). White “gold”: cotton in
4 Op. cit., see note 2. nutritional status of young children and Francophone West Africa. In S. Haggblade and
5 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of their mothers in Brazzaville, Congo, following P. Hazell, eds. Successes in African
Disasters, Université Catholique de Louvain. the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc. agriculture: lessons for the future.
2008. Disaster Data: A Balanced Perspective. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Washington, DC, IFPRI.
CRED Crunch, 11: 1–2 (available at 78(1): 108–118. C. Poulton, J. Kydd and A. Dorward. 2006.
www.emdat.be/Documents/CredCrunch/ 12 H. Zaman, C. Delgado, D. Mitchell and Overcoming market constraints on pro-poor
Cred%20Crunch%2011.pdf). A. Revenga. (forthcoming). Rising food prices: agricultural growth in sub-Saharan Africa.
6 An LIFDC is characterized by a low per capita are there right policy choices? Development Development Policy Review, 24(3): 243–277.
income making it eligible for financing from Outreach. Washington, DC, World Bank. 19 X. Diao, P.B.R. Hazell, D. Resnick and
international development associations under 13 FAO. 2008. Climate change adaptation and J. Thurlow. 2007. The role of agriculture in
World Bank rules, a structural (over three mitigation: challenges and opportunities for development: implications for sub-Saharan
years) net import position for basic foodstuffs food security. Information document prepared Africa. Research Report No. 153. Washington,
and consistency in LIFDC status, or for the High-level Conference on World Food DC, IFPRI.
“persistence of position” over time. Most Security: the Challenges of Climate Change 20 X. Diao and P.B.R. Hazell. 2004. Exploring
LIFDCs are in Africa (37) and Asia (21). and Bioenergy, Rome, 3–5 June 2008 market opportunities for African
7 For more on LIFDCs that import petroleum (available at ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/ smallholders. 2020 Africa Conference Brief
products and foodgrains, see FAO. 2008. meeting/013/k2545e.pdf). Issue brief 6 22. Washington, DC, IFPRI.
Soaring food prices: facts, perspectives, 14 For more detail on enhancing agricultural 21 H. Torlesse, L. Kiess and M.W. Bloem. 2003.
impacts and actions required. Information productivity, see FAO. (forthcoming). The State Association of household rice expenditure
document for the High-Level Conference on of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2008. with child nutritional status indicates a role
World Food Security, Rome, 3–5 June 2008 Rome. for macroeconomic food policy in combating
(available at www.fao.org/foodclimate/ 15 R. Birner and D. Resnick. 2005. Policy and malnutrition. The Journal of Nutrition,
conference/doclist/en/?no_cache=1). politics for smallholder agriculture. In IFPRI. 133: 1320–1325.
8 The full list of countries severely affected by The future of small farms: proceedings of a 22 FAO. 2004. Human energy requirements.
high fuel and food prices is available on the research workshop, pp. 283–311. Wye, UK, Report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert
FAO/GIEWS Web site: www.fao.org/GIEWS/ 26–29 June 2005. Washington, DC, IFPRI. Consultation, Rome, 17–24 October 2001. FAO
ENGLISH/HOTSPOTS/INDEX_M.HTM. 16 P.B.R. Hazell, C. Poulton, S. Wiggins and Food and Nutrition Technical Report Series
9 T. Fouéré, B. Mair, F. Delpeuch, Y. Martin- A. Dorward. 2007. The future of small farms No. 1. Rome.
Prével, F. Tchibindat and G. Adoua-Oyila. 2000. for poverty reduction and growth. 2020
Dietary changes in African urban households Discussion Paper 42. Washington, DC, IFPRI.
in response to currency devaluation: 17 World Bank. 2007. World Development Report
foreseeable risks for health and nutrition. 2008: Agriculture for Development.
Public Health Nutrition, 3: 293–301. Washington, DC.
The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2008 presents the latest statistics
on global undernourishment. It reviews the impact of high food prices and
concludes that chronic hunger in the world has increased rapidly, now
affecting well over 900 million people, and placing tremendous pressure on
achieving hunger reduction targets set for 2015 by the 1996 World Food
Summit and as agreed under the first Millennium Development Goal.
This report finds that high food prices hit the poorest, landless and female-
headed households hardest, affecting real incomes and raising the
prevalence of food insecurity and malnutrition among the poor by reducing
the quantity and quality of food consumed. Governments worldwide have
adopted measures to contain the negative impacts of high food prices.
However, these have had limited effect, with some proving detrimental to
world price levels and stability.
This report also examines how high food prices present an opportunity to
relaunch smallholder agriculture in the developing world. With appropriate
incentives, farming households could see immediate gains, while other
rural households could benefit in the longer run. The report advocates
FAO’s comprehensive twin-track approach to address the adverse impacts
of high food prices on world hunger. The strategy should include measures
to enable the agriculture sector, especially smallholders in developing
countries, to respond to high food prices, while also implementing targeted
safety nets and social protection programmes for the most food-insecure
and vulnerable.
ISBN 978-92-5-106049-0
9 7 8 9 2 5 1 0 6 0 4 9 0
TC/M/I0291E/1/10.08/4900