Web 2.0 Presentation by Ed Yourdon

Web 2.
0
Ed Yourdon and collaborators worldwide
email: ed@yourdon.com
Website: www.yourdon.com
Blog: www.yourdonreport.com
version 47
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Topics
1. Introduction
2. Themes
3. History
4. Technology
5. Products, vendors
6. Business Issues
7. Cultural issues
8. Trends
9. Conclusions
10.References
1. Introduction
Definitions: what is Web 2.0?
Web 2.0: profound business,
technological, and social changes
Danger of over-hyping
Lessons to learn from Web 1.0, to plan
for Web 2.0

Definitions
Many people feel they don’t really understand what Web 2.0 is
all about, and there are shortcomings in popular definitions
My definition
O’Reilly definitions
Michael Wesch: “the machine is (us)ing us”
• viewed 3.4 million times as of 9/18/2007
• See Wesch’s explanation of how he made the video
• See John Battelle’s interview with Michael Wesch
• See also Michael Wesch’s “Vision of Students Today”
• See also Michael Wesch’s YouTube video, “R/evolution,” about the transformation of paper
information into digital information
Pew Report definition
24-minute video documentary definition
Differences bet ween Web 1.0 and 2.0(more)
Main business Web 2.0 tools (more)
Ed’s definition
Web 2.0 is the combination of:
• tools and technologies
• business strategies (like blogging, external wikis,
customer participation)
• and social/cultural trends
which drive the individual creation and

sharing of content on the Internet

O’Reilly definitions
Compact definition
Long definition
New (Oct 2007) definition:
“intelligence in the back end”
Hierarchy of Web 2.0-ness

Main Web 2.0 tools
Blogs
Wikis
Podcasts
RSS
Collaborative content tagging
Social net working (see IBM’s activities
in this area!)
Mashups
Intro: Business Changes
Empowering employees
• Let them blog - internally & externally
• Let them collaborate with wikis
Encouraging external collaboration
with wikis
Long Tail phenomenon
Product vs. Ser vice (MS Office vs. Google
Docs; Web-based calendars, etc.)
Publishing
(back to main “Intro” page)
Business change: publishing
Craigslist vs. classified ads
(note: 30% owned by eBay)
Blogs vs. newspapers
Book mashups
Communal authorship: my
JESA wiki
Communal advertisement/
commercials
Communal product reviews
(Amazon)
Intro: Tech Changes
Perpetual beta
Ajax, Ruby on Rails, and more...
Web as the platform
API’s facilitating mashups

Web as the Platform
Examples of Web as platform

Benefits of Web as platform
Risks of Web as platform

Examples of web as platform
Google Apps
Virtual Ubiquity’s Buzzword (acquired by Adobe on 9/30/2007)
30 Boxes (calendar)
SmartSheet: project management
Zoho Spreadsheet
Zoho DB database
and more every day...
but still at “early adopter” stage -- e.g., 1.5 million copies of PC-
based “Quickbooks” from Intuit, but only 125,000 copies of
online version (from 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference)
However, Intuit has 10 million TurboTax customers, and 50% use
the Web-based version (also from 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conf)
Benefits of web platform
Easier to support increasingly common distributed workforce
(which needs collaboration capability)
Simpler install/infrastructure for small startup companies
(6 million new businesses each year in U.S., who have no
existing PC/net work infrastructure when they start)
Fast installation allows business managers to ignore/
circumvent IT department (just like PC’s in 1980s!)
UI often more appealing to new generation of users (e.g.,
college students who have never seen MS Outlook)
Free (or sometimes $50/year)
“Try before you buy”
Updates, new versions available immediately
Risks of web platform
Security (lower priority for new, small startup companies)
Privacy
Compliance with other standards, etc.
Connectivity: can it be used offline?
Stability of small vendors
Performance/features (for power users)
• Features of Google Apps/Docs are far less than Microsoft Office -- but Web-based
products are usually supporting a new class of “first-time” users, who are doing things
they simply couldn’t do before (e.g., 15 million of the 19 million small businesses in U.S.
still use pencil and paper to do their accounting and book-keeping)
• Compare Keynote/PDF version of this presentation with the Google Apps version
Is data “trapped”? Can it be moved to a different platform?

• Sometimes a major problem with desktop-based PC products, to
• Vendors like Google say they’re aware of the issue, and support the “philosophy” that users
should be able to take their data (e.g., Google search history, Facebook “social graph” with
them if they leave
Intro: social changes
The public: wired (73%), but not Web 2.0 (8%)
(based on a Feb-Apr 2006 sur vey, which did not
include teenagers)
Blogs
Trust in Wikipedia
Emphasis on communities
“People power”
Political commentary
Technology usage in U.S.

Social change: blogs
Latest count: 71
million blogs, 120K
new blogs every
day
Pew sur vey of
bloggers

Social Change: Microblogging
Example: Twitter (100,000+ members), which provides a simple,
SMS answer the question, “What are you doing now?”
• Started by Evan Williams, who noticed 200 people emerging from a lecture at Stanford, all
picking up their cell phones to ask their friends, “What are you doing now?”
• Twittr messages are known as “t weets”
• See David Weinberger’s characterization as “continuous partial friendship”
Another example: Dopplr (private beta), which answers the
simple question, “Where are you going? When will you be back?”
Another example: Finland’s Jaiku
Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2007
See Ross Mayfield’s blog comments
See David Weinberger’s comments on importance of presence
See Forrester report estimating that 6% of American public
Twitters
See Scoble’s disagreement/rebuttal of Forrester estimate
See Guy Kawasaki’s “How Twitter Made My Website Better”
Social change:
trust in Wikipedia
Campaigns Wikia
Essjay controversy
Wikipedia article on UVA massacre
WikiScanner
(more on Wikis, Wikipedia later)

Social change:
emphasis on communities
MySpaceNation
Joe Ford’s congressional campaign
The Mom Net work
Steve Ballmer’s comments on communities
Oct 26, 2007 “Newsweek” article discusses Facebook as a
mechanism for creating and energizing charitable
organizations
note to collaborators: please add additional relevant examples
Social change:
“people power”
Time magazine’s 2006 “person of the
year”: you
Farecast.com
Farecast review

Social change:
political commentary
TechPresident blog
A smorgasborg of YouTube political videos
2008: the Web 2.0 election?
Web 2.0 “Wisdom of the Crowd” to probe 2008 Presidential contenders
Comedy Central’s Stephen Colbert out-draws Obaama’s “1,000,000 strong”
campaign in 10 days. And he now has 1,000,000 supporters.
Web 2.0 impact on 2006 elections
Obama “1984” mashup
• 3.9 million downloads, creator resigns
• YouTube inter view with video creator
Hilary Clinton on Second Life

George Bush “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” mashup
Saturday Nite Live’s spoof of George Bush on global warming
Intro: danger of over-hyping
“Old ideas are completely obsolete!”
“This will revolutionize the world!”
“Our Web 2.0 startup will make us rich!”
• The sobering reality of the 80-20 rule
VC’s desperate to invest in the next Google

• Example: Microsoft’s Oct 2007 investment of $240 million in Facebook,
creating a $15 billion valuation for the company and made its founder, Mark
Zuckerberg, worth $3 billion
Startup companies with “vision,” but no revenue model

• New business reality: low startup costs, VC’s not as important as before
• New exit strategy: no IPO, but get acquired by Google
Web 2.0 Bullshit Generator

Reality: people adapt to new things more slowly than
innovators realize
Learn Lessons from Web 1.0
to plan for Web 2.0
Business Plan Archive’s “Top Ten Lessons from the
Dot-Com Meltdown”
“The real learning happens at the intersection of
an industry and a generation”
Expect major shakeouts and consolidation
Anticipate new competitors
Don’t forget business fundamentals
Beware over-hyping
Five lessons from Financial Times
2. Basic themes of Web 2.0
Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0
Reputation economy
Architecture of creation vs consumption
Recurring themes
Related concepts
Mashups
Long Tail
Wikis
Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0
Summary of differences
Web 1.0: mostly static Web pages
Centralized/corporate publishers of content
Single-site content
Some “portals”
But generally no API’s or mashups
Inadequate technology
Slow bandwidth
No Ajax, full-page refresh
Reputation economy
User reviews (e.g., Amazon)
Naymz’s “reputation community”
• Ed’s Naymz inter view
Tag clouds
StumbleUpon
• TechCrunch review of StumbleUpon
Google’s New Orleans Controversy

Wikipedia: covert alterations -> WikiScanner
Tag Clouds
Definition
Flickr tag cloud
Technorati tag cloud
Del.icio.us tag cloud
TagCloud.com
Selecting RSS feeds by tag
Critical article
Architecture of
creation vs. consumption
PC + laser printer made everyone a “publisher”
Now it’s blogs and wikis (state of the blogosphere)
Reasons for “personal publishing”
• Dreams of fame & riches
• Desire to “connect”
• Passion for subject matter
• Ego
• Reputation
• Too much time on their hands (an ongoing trend!)
Next step: “democratizing” innovation (aka “user-

centered innovation”)
(back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”)
Recurring themes for
Web 2.0
Themes from my Aug 2006 visit to Web 2.0
vendors in Silicon Valley (blog posting)
Enterprise 2.0 Building Blocks: SLATES; (see
also the article, “Enterprise 2.0: the dawn of
emergent collaboration” from MIT Sloan
Review)
Empower individual customers, employees,
citizens
(back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”)
Mashups
Definition: blending content from > one source
Examples
Web sites
Tech Beat: Blogs on Mashups
Programmable Web: list of mashups
Wiki for Web Services and Open API’s
Business model for mashups

Tools
Yahoo Pipes (most processing done on the server)
Google’s MyMaps
Microsoft’s PopFly (most processing done on the client)
Note to collaborators: please add more examples of tools for creating mashups
Mashup Examples
Google Maps + CraigsList
Housing Maps for Italy
YouTube.com
Podbop
mapsexoffenders.com
Earth Sandwich
Middle East news + blogs
275 Flickr Mashups
Google Maps mashup showing location
of Oct 2007 wildfires in Califiornia
Long Tail
Basic concept
History
Chris Anderson’s PopTech 2006 PPT slides
Examples
Advice & Recommendations

Long Tail Concepts
Selling more and more to fewer
and fewer
Pareto’s Principle (80-20) less
relevant today
Relationship to Web 2.0
• Shift from the monopoly of the “big hits” favors tiny
publishers and creators of Web content
• Encourages “niche” producers to collaborate with

“aggregators” like Amazon, iTunes, NetFlix, etc.
• Sometimes a niche product can become an unexpected

“blockbuster” through viral marketing, word of mouth
video: “Day of the Long Tail”

Long Tail History
Scarcity favors the 80-20 rule
• Production
• Inventory
• Shelf-space
• Distribution
Bits on the Internet changes the rules

• Production
• Inventory
• Shelf-space
• Distribution
• Search engines: without Google, there would be no Long Tail!

Long Tail Examples
Amazon (98% of 100,000)
• Tim O’Reilly’s critique of Amazon long-tail stats
iTunes (100% of 5 million)

NetFlix (95% of 55,000 movies)
Lego
Soft ware development
JotSpot Powerpoint presentation
Part 2 of Powerpoint presentation
General info on JotSpot (recently acquired by Google)
Website design
Death of blockbuster drugs
Long Tail Advice
Two imperatives
• Make everything available
• Help me find it
Nine rules (summarized from longer discussion in

Chapter 14 of “The Long Tail”)
1. Move inventory to the edge -- keep a virtual inventory, and transfer
costs to your suppliers
2. Let customers do the work -- “crowdsourcing” to let customer reviews
rank your books, write your product reviews, etc -- because “collectively,
customers have virtually unlimited time and energy.”
3. One distribution method doesn’t fit all -- think niche
4. One product doesn’t fit all -- think niche
5. One price doesn’t fit all -- think niche
6. Share information -- which requires giving up control
7. Think “and” not “or” (Coke)
8. Trust the market to do your job -- a variation on #2 above
9. Understand the power of the free -- combine premium pricing and a free
version of what you provide; rely on an advertising-supported model.
Wikis
Concepts
History
Examples
Tools
Benefits
Risks
Implications
Wiki concepts
Rapid iteration of documents, designs,
reports, etc.
Widespread collaboration -- either inside
or outside an organizational boundary
Relationship to Web 2.0?
Relationship to Open Source development?

Wiki History
Ward Cunningham’s work

Pattern language work, using Hypercard
WikiWikiWeb, 1995

Examples
List of largest wikis
Wikipedia (more)
Proctor & Gamble “Connect & Develop” (more)
European pharma “dark blog” case study
Eli Lilly “Innocentive” initiative (more)
Social Text
Source Forge (open source)
iStock Photo (more)
My JESA “structured analysis” wiki
Semi-private university wikis
This Web 2.0 Google Docs presentation! 42
Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Har vard Business School case study
Wikipedia
2-millionth English-language article published on 09/12/2007
The 1-percent rule: 2% of Wikipedia editors generate 60% of its content.
Wikipedia says there are 5,682,446 Wikipedians; incredibly detailed statistics about
demographics and growth of Wikipedians are available here (e.g., only 75,716 Wikipedians
made 5 or more contributions in Sept 2007).
According to Nov 2007 CACM article “What Motivates Wikipedians?”, the top motivators for
Wikipedians are “fun” and “ideology”
e.g., they strongly agree with “Writing/editing in Wikipedia is fun,” and “I think information should be free.”
Lowest motivators were “social” (“People I’m close to want me to write/edit in Wikipedia”) and “career” (“I can make new
contacts that might help my business or career.”
Additional Wikipedia statistics are available here; for example, Wikipedia grew by more than
30 million words in July, 2006.
Growth may be slowing; see this Oct 11, 2007TechCrunch article and this Wikipedia page
One risk of Wikipedia: “truth by consensus” (aka “wikiality”
WikiScanner

Mary Meeker on Wikipedia
from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 32 of presentation

Proctor & Gamble
8,000 researchers
600 partners
productivity up 60%
35% of innovations from outside
R&D costs dropped from 4.8% of sales,
down to 3.4% of sales

Eli Lilly Innocentive
30 companies involved
90,000(!) scientists
Rewards up to $100,000

iStock Photo
Sells photos for $1-5, much cheaper than
traditional commercial sources
Pays royalties to amateur photographers
Licensed 10 million images in 2006
Purchased by Getty Images for $50 million
But may be rendered irrelevant by (free) Flickr ...
• My Flickr page, for whatever it’s worth...
• 15.4 million registered users
• 38 million visitors/month
• 1.38 billion photographs
... or Photobucket
• acquired by Fox Media in July, 2007
• has 35 million visitors/month
• has 3.636 billion images as of 09/24/2007
47
Wiki Tools
Twiki (free)
MediaWiki
pbWiki
JotSpot (recently acquired by Google)
• Ed’s report on JotSpot
• JotSpot 2.0
Wikipatterns
Wiki Benefits
New workforce: “crowdsourcing” (“people power”)
Some are happy with modest, part-time income
• Google Answers: $2.50 payments
Hobbyists often happy to work for free

• Time magazine article: “Getting Rich on Those Who Work for Free”
• Flickr, and other sources of artistic/IP contributions
• “raw” resources: grid computing, SETI-at-home
• Yahoo Answers: 10 million free answers
Access “loyal” resources

• Retirees
• Alumni
• Customers
Generate new ideas, products more quickly 49

Wiki Risks
Security
Privacy
Censorship issues
IP ownership
Control
Anarchy
Credibility of information
• The Essjay Controversy
• David Weinberger’s assessment of Wikipedia credibility
• Wikipedia competitor: Citizendium

Wiki implications
Consider inhouse wiki as a learning
experience
Visit/learn about other successful wiki
initiatives
Consider limited “external”
collaboration wiki as a pilot project
Remember: tools are just enablers;
cultural issues are more important

Web 2.0 History
Pre-History
• Initial rejection of Web 2.0 concepts
• Amazon “long tail” in 1995
• eBay “long tail” in 1995
• WikiWikiWeb in 1995
• Yahoo (various Web 2.0 concepts) in 1996
• Google advertising (long tail), 2000
• Wikipedia in 2001
• iTunes (long tail) in 2001
• Early book with “Web 2.0” title, 2002
Development of enabling technologies

Social/cultural influences
• Clue Train Manifesto
• User-generated content
First Web 2.0 conference in 2004

“Buzz” began in 2005 52
Web 2.0 Technology
Ajax
Ruby on Rails
API’s
Tools/IDE’s
Other enabling technology
Design guidelines, best practices

Technology - Ajax
Basic concept
Architectural guidelines
Examples
Ajaxifying legacy apps
Ajax-related web sites

Ajax - basic concept
Asynchronous Javascript & XML
Standards-based presentation using XHTML and CSS
Dynamic display and interaction using DOM
Data interchan ge using XML and XSLR
Ansynchronous data retrieval using XML HttpRequest or
XMLHTTP (from Microsoft)
Javascript binding everything together

Ajax:
architectural guidelines
Small server-side events, no full-page refresh
Asynchronous activity: users continue
working after invoking a request
“onAnything”: any user event can cause an
asynchronous event

Ajax: examples
Flickr
Meebo
Nowsy - an Ajax home page
All of the Zoho products
Timeline - Ajax widget for visualizing time-based
events
Microsoft releases beta AJAX
note to collaborators: please add more important
Ajax examples, as appropriate
Ajaxifying legacy apps
“Ajax spurs rebirth for desktop apps,” by
Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1,
2005
Writely -- now Google Docs
Google spreadsheets -- now Google Docs
Many other companies are now doing
this, though it’s not always easy to
provide a cost-benefit justification
Ajax Web sites
Ajax matters
Ajaxian
Ajax magazine
Sites using Ajax

Technology - Ruby on Rails
Basic concepts
Examples
Websites
Tools, etc.

Ruby on Rails:
basic concepts
Open-source web application framework written in Ruby
Closely follows the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture
originally developed for Smalltalk
Strives for simplicity and allowing real-world applications to be
developed in less code (and thus less effort/time) than other
frameworks -- and with a minimum of configuration
Ruby programming language allows for extensive
metaprogramming, which Rails makes great use of
Rails architecture strongly favors database use, and an RDBMS
system is recommended for data storage
Ruby on Rails: examples
Twitter (this isn’t the main Twitter website)

Companies A-M
Companies N-Z

Ruby on Rails:
Websites
RubyOnRails.org
Wiki site
SourceForge
AjaxOnRails

Ruby on Rails: Tools, etc.
Integration with Visual Studio

note to collaborators: need more
examples of RubyOnRails tools

Technology - API’s
Google
• Google Maps API
• Google AJAX search API
Yahoo
• Yahoo search API
AOL
• AIM API’s
Dapper’s API ser vice (Israeli-based, has a partnership with

Microsoft)
Twitter API
Facebook API
note to collaborators: need more examples of API’s for Web 2.0 development
• what about Amazon, iTunes, eBay, etc.?

Technology: tools/IDE’s
Primary objective: fast and flexible
development, not reuse
Aptana
note to collaborators: need more
examples of general tools and IDE’s for
Web 2.0 development

Technology - other
enabling technologies
XML
Web ser vices: net work as platform
• (see “Microsoft declares end of PC era”)
Django: a high-level Python Web framework

RSS
Adobe Flex
Technology - Design
guidelines, best practices
Forthcoming book: “Web 2.0 Design Patterns”
Agile development
• Scott Rosenberg’s dissent: 5-year Web 2.0 design cycle
Scaling issues: must architect for rapid growth

• example: iLike (Facebook app) launched during holiday weekend in May
• Acquired first 10,000 users in first 12 hours of business
• Next 10,000 users acquired in following 3 hours
• Next 10,000 users acquired in following 2 hours
• Developers filled up 40 servers after one day, had to beg and borrow additional servers
during remainder of holiday weekend...
UI issues
Problems with non-integrated Web 2.0 apps 68
Products/Vendors
Aspects of Web 2.0 usage
Big vendors
Top 25 UK vendors
Top Italian Web apps
Web apps around the world
Social Net working Services
Other startups, small vendors
A visual display of all Web 2.0 vendors
Aspects of Web 2.0 usage
Use of Web 2.0 technologies
One perspective: blogs, wikis, podcasts, RSS,
social net works, content tags
Providing Web 2.0 products/ser vices
People power
Use of mashups
Use of Long Tail concept
Emerging theme: let users (customers) take
their data with them when/if they leave
Big Vendors
Google
Yahoo
Microsoft
IBM
Apple
Cisco
Tim O’Reilly: SAP as a Web 2.0 vendor?
Google
The Economist: “Who’s Afraid of Google?”
Google’s Master Plan (just kidding!)
My visit to Google
Mashups: Google’s MyMaps
Long Tail: statistics on advertising
People Power: Google Pages
Google Apps
Google Powerpoint
Google Notebook (in 17 languages!)
New stuff: Google3D

Yahoo
Relationship with JotSpot

Owns Flickr, among many other assets
Yahoo buys Zimbra
Yahoo Pipes

Microsoft
Social Net works: investment in Facebook
Net work as Platform: Windows Office Live (see
Mary Jo Foley’s Sep 30, 2007 summary)
Blogging tool: Windows Live Writer
• Computer world review
Support for Ajax

Mashups
• Strategy
• MapCruncher
• PopFly
Long Tail -- XBox Live Arcade

IBM
Summary of Web 2.0 initiatives
Mashup strategy
Support for Ruby on Rails
Support for Ajax
Lotus Notes V8
IBM acquires Web conferencing ser vice provider
Blog: “Will IBM compete with Facebook/Web 2.0?”
Apple
Long Tail: iTunes
People Power: iWeb
Mashups: rumor of iPhoto-GoogleMap mashup
(which Flickr already has!)
Use of Web 2.0 technologies: Ajax (e.g.,
Apple’s .Mac web-mail)
Innovative UI: iPhone, iPod Touch

Cisco
Cisco Buys Five Across

Cisco Buys Webex

Products/vendors:
Social Net working Services
YouTube: 100 million videos/day
• John Dvorak’s analysis of YouTube success factors
• Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2006
• Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announces it will publish its univ. lectures on YouTube
MySpace, FaceBook, LinkedIn, etc.
A new example, which focuses on “knowledge net working”: Twine, announced at 2007 Web 2.0
Summit (See Nicholas Carr’s Oct 19, 2007 blog posting about this).
“New Yorker” article: in-person net working in a Facebook world
SecondLife
Statistic: 300 social net working startups in last t wo years
Statistic: 100,000 Ning “micro” social net works (see Ning)
The 1% rule: 1% of a social site’s visitors create most content, and 10% “synthesize” the content,
by interacting with it
Top 20 social net works, ranked
Now used heavily by middle-aged audiences
Growth of Social Net working
Strong Web 2.0 Metrics –
The Times They are a-Changin’ – Hello Social Networking
Alexa Global Traffic Rankings

2005 (1) 2007 (2)
Rank Web site Rank Web site
1 yahoo.com 1 yahoo.com
2 msn.com 2 google.com
3 google.com 3 msn.com
4 ebay.com 4 youtube.com
5 amazon.com 5 live.com
6 microsoft.com 6 myspace.com
7 myspace.com 7 facebook.com
8 google.co.uk 8 orkut.com
9 aol.com 9 wikipedia.org
10 go.com 10 hi5.com
Traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of
page views / users (geometric mean of the two quantities averaged over time).
(1) Rankings as of 12/31/05, excludes Microsoft Passport; (2) Rankings as of 10/15/07

Source: Alexa Global Traffic Rankings, Morgan Stanley Research 30

Mary Meeker on Facebook
See also “Microsoft to Pay $240 Million for Stake in Facebook,” from Oct 24, 2007 issue of “New York Times”

Other startups,
small vendors
Digg (more)
37 Signals’ HighRise CRM
Zoho CRM
Scoble’s review of SmartSheet
Naymz
NetSuite’s Ajax-based interactive dashboards
Web 2.0 company name generator (amusing)
The future of web startups
Digg
Interview with Digg’s Kevin Rose
Ed’s report on Digg
Digg Swarm
Digg Stack
Digg BigSpy
Digg Arc
Mary Meeker says (in her 2007 Web
2.0 Summit conference presentation):
10 million unique visitors, +252% Y/Y
Business Issues
Basic issues
Reactions and trends in large companies
Web 2.0 in government
Recommended strategies for “traditional”
companies
Strategies for startup companies

Business: basic issues
Strategic
• Use Web 2.0 (including related concepts like Long Tail) to find new products,
ser vices, markets
• Use Web 2.0 to increase revenue, dramatically reduce costs
• Use Web 2.0 to empower individual customers, employees -- and outsiders like
retirees, alumni, and others
Tactical
• Encourage collaboration with wikis
• Encourage communication with blogs; (for example, see Delta Airlines’ corporate
blog, highlighted in the October 2007 copy of their airline magazine)
• Improve UI of web-based products and services with AJAX, etc.
• Use new tools like Ruby on Rails to build Web 2.0 products, services more quickly
Reactions and trends in
large companies
Technology adoption cycle
“CIO” prediction for 2007: “IT reluctantly embraces Web 2.0”
Fall 2007 “CIO Magazine” survey on personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO’s (see chart, next page)
Expect conser vative reaction from CIO’s
Two views of Web 2.0 use in business for 2007
“IT Can’t Stop Web 2.0”
Knowledge Worker 2.0
Sun’s endorsement of CEO blogging
High-level blogging at Intel
“Dark blogs”
Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs, 10,000 internal blogs
• note to collaborators: do you know of any articles or blog postings to confirm this statistic? I’ve only heard this verbally, from
a Microsoft presenter, at a Web 2.0 conference in 2006
WebWorkerDaily: acknowledging lifestyle of distributed workers
IBM comments on collaboration and business-oriented social net works
CEO reaction to social media
Social net working as a business tool
Ed’s notes on corporate blogging here, and here; sample corporate blogging policies here and here
Personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO’s

Technology adoption cycle
Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
40 Late Majority
Laggards
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Time of adoption
strategic objective
value added
cost displacement/avoidance
technological imperative

Web 2.0 in government
One basic strategy: shift control and resources for services, information, and expression of
ideas/opinions to citizens
Tara Hunt’s 170-slide “Government Next” presentation
Travel delays (clevercommute.com), parking information
Saving democracy with Web 2.0
Hastily Formed Net works (HFN’s) (see Luis Suarez’s blog posting about using Twitter and
microblogs in emergencies)
Health-related initiatives: see Marissa Mayer’s description at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit
conference of what Google is doing with Google Health
US Federal Government Web 2.0
Nor wegian Government Web 2.0
Tim O’Reilly on government’s use of Web 2.0
Section 508 compliance issues
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s use of Web 2.0
A-Space
IBM on governmental blogging
Poll: is the government ready for Web 2.0?

Recommended strategies
for traditional companies
Developing an enterprise Web 2.0 strategy
A Microsoft perspective on business opportunities for Web 2.0
SWOT analysis
Pilot projects
IBM’s Luis Suarez on “making the business case for social computing”
Skunk works
Acquisitions
Case study: $279 Forrester report on Web 2.0 implementation at Northwestern Insurance;
Yahoo summary of the report
Two more case studies on introducing Web 2.0 into the corporate environment, on the
Enterprise Web 2.0 website
Case study of SAP introducing social net works into its own corporate environment
Heed advice for avoiding dot-bomb 2.0
Business model for mashups

Recommended strategies:
SWOT analysis
Opportunities
• New products, services
• New markets, new customers (Long Tail)
• Greater customer loyalty
• Greater employee loyalty
• Faster time, lower cost for R&D, product development
Threats
• New competitors whose existence you don’t even know about
• More effective competition from competitors who are enjoying the benefits
oppportunities summarized above
• Loss of reputation (e.g., from customer blogs)
• Security problems caused by blending of “personal” and corporate IT lives
• Risk of malware
Strategies for startups
Scobleizer’s advice
Brad Feld’s advice about VC economics
for Web 2.0 companies

Cultural Issues
People power
Generational trends
Open, sharable content/interface
• Hook into Google, Yahoo, Amazon, etc.
• Look for ways to “open up” your own company’s intellectual/information assets
“Out ward bound” collaboration: retirees,

alumni, hobbyists
Long Tail impact
Perpetual beta environment
Cultural Issues:
people power
Customers
Employees
Marketplace
Citizens

People power: customers
Let them help design new products
Let them help suggest ads/marketing
• current.com’s Joel Hyatt says customers prefer them 9-to-1 over traditional commercials
• Cost is zero, as compared to $1 million for traditional commercial
• kayak.com user ads
• Chevy Tahoe user commercial
• fan-made iPhone commercial (see also Nick Haley’s iPod Touch commercial, which Apple picked
up, and broadcast during the World Series games on Oct 27-28, 2007)
• see current.com for a more ambitious initiative in this area for user-generated content
• Another example: 98% of content on eBay is user-generated (from Meg Whitman at 2007
Web 2.0 Summit conference)
Let them provide feedback/commentary on

products/ser vices
Let them help other customers with support
Sometimes they know more than the vendor
People power: employees
Let them blog behind the firewall, if not openly and
publicly
Remember: Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs and
10,000 internal blogs
Example: CEO of Sun Microsystems blogs
Example: Michael Chertoff, head of U.S. Homeland
Security, blogs (eek!)
Example: UN policy - permission required for writing
books, but not posting blogs!
Non-technical example at Google: new products bubble up
from the bottom of organization
People power: marketplace
Viral marketing
Viral dissemination of good news and
bad news
• AOL cancellation example
• Comcast customer service visit

People power: citizens
Decreased dependence on
“authoritative” source of news/content
Political commentary
• “Daily Show” commentary on Viacom-Google billion dollar lawsuit
• Philippine activists using YouTube to spread word about political protest

issues
• Mashup of George Bush and U2’s “Sunday, Bloody Sunday”
Products/ser vices get adapted in

unexpected ways
• New York Times: CraigsList used by prostitutes
Cultural Issues:
Generational trends
Demographics of bloggers
Rise of the “silver surfers”
Remember: senior management is 2-3
generations older than today’s Web 2.0-
sav vy population
What Web 2.0 will mean for the next
generation of the workforce
Cultural issues:
Long Tail Impact
Stop focusing entirely on “big hits”
Look for ways to create/nourish a “long
tail” of products/ser vices
Often represents a huge cultural change
for the business people (e.g., R&D,
product planning, marketing, etc.)
whose job always assumed emphasizing
the big hits and ignoring almost
everything else 99
Cultural issues:
perpetual beta concept
“Good enough” culture
Weekly releases of new downloadable updates/
enhancements -- versus annual releases of new
products
Example: Google mail (gmail) is still listed as a
“beta” product, yet millions are using it

Trends
Caveat: predicting the future is hard
And there is resistance to “paradigm shifts”
Basic point: today’s R&D is next decade’s
“mainstream”
Gartner’s view of Web 2.0 trends
Kevin Kelly’s view of “next web”
Morgan Stanley 2007 Internet trends
Web 3.0
Technical trends
Business trends
Social/cultural trends
Resistance to paradigm shifts
Disruptive technologies often threaten the
established scientific, governmental, religious,
social, cultural norms
This has been true for centuries, if not longer
But revolutionaries often forget: “you tend to
become what you disrupt” (Meg Whitman)
Typical examples in Web 2.0 world
• resistance to user-generated content
• resistance to policy of allowing employees to blog about their work
• rejection of web-based products as “too light weight”
• rejection of Facebook applications by “Wall Street Journal” technology journalist Kara
Swisher as “trivial” and “frivolous”
Trends: predicting the
future is hard!
Fubini’s Law
People least likely to anticipate how
new technology will be applied:
inventors of the new technology!
Examples of inaccurate predictions

Examples of
inaccurate predictions
In 1895, British Postmaster General Arnold Morley said, “Gas and water are necessities for
every inhabitant of the Country. Telephones are not and never will be. It is no use trying to
persuade ourselves that the use of the telephone could be enjoyed by the large masses of people in
their daily life.” (see “Public Ownership and the Telephone in Great Britain,” Chapter VIII, p. 117)
In 1903, soon after the first Wright Brothers flight, Rudyard Kipling predicted that airpseeds
would reach only 300 mph by the year 2000.
In 1927, J.B.S. Haldane predicted that the first landing on Mars would not take place for 10
million years.
In 1943, IBM Chairman Thomas Watson may have said, “I think there is a world market for
maybe five computers.” (see this Wikipedia article for discussion of alleged comment.)
In 1945, FDR’s naval aide, Admiral William Leahy, said about the atomic bomb, “That is the biggest
fool thing we have ever done ... the bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.”
In 1949, “Popular Mechanics,” forecasting the relentless march of science, wrote “Computers in
the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
In 1977, DEC founder/CEO Ken Olsen remarked at a World Future Society conference that “There
is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.”
In 1981, an obscure computer geek named Bill Gates allegedly said, “640K bytes ought to be
enough for anybody.” (But see this article for Gates’ denial that he ever said such a thing.)
Trends: today’s R&D is
tomorrow’s “mainstream
Some of it is secret
Some of it is ignored, dismissed, rejected,
or laughed at
And some is being used by “pre-early
adopters”

Web 3.0
New York Times article on Web 3.0
“What to Expect from Web 3.0”
Mass Market becomes Long Tail
List of cool Web 3.0 apps
Tim Berners-Lee: Web 3.0 = “semantic Web”
Semantic Web = end of Google?
Freebase: Wikipedia + Open Directory (see Nicholas Carr’s blog
posting about Freebase)
A definition of Web 3.0 from Jason Calcanis, and a rebuttal
from Tim O’Reilly
Today’s world: we find content, but we often type the wrong
search term. Tomorrow’s world: content finds us
Trends: technical
Moore’s Law
New user interface (UI) paradigms
Nicholas Carr’s vision of the future of personal
computing: a marriage bet ween Google’s “cloud”
computing and Apple’s UI
Death of the PC?
• Would a typical teenager prefer a new smart-phone, or a new PC?
• Rise of the thin-client device

Trends, technical: Moore’s Law
10 years = 6.67 doublings = 101.6x improvement over today’s

technology
Pervasive (ubiquitous) computing: today’s $100 computer
becomes next decade’s $1 computer
Similar advances in speed, storage, bandwidth, footprint
Computers exceed human intelligence?
Embedded computing 108
Trends, technical:
ubiquitous computing
Everyware: the dawning age of
ubiquitous computing
The $100 laptop
• OLPC site
• “Buy a Laptop for a Child, Get Another Laptop Free”
• David Pogue’s review of OLPC, in the 10/04/2007 “New York Times”
IEEE special issue on per vasive computing

Trends, technical:
embedded computing
RFID
Everything has an IP address
Ambient devices
The bionic woman/man?

Trends: business
Web 2.0 will put some Web 1.0 companies out of
business
Death of Microsoft?
Appearance of next Google?
Decreased relevance of venture capitalists?
Boundary bet ween customers and companies
blurs
Trends: social/cultural
Impact of a new generation of tech-sav vy users
Next 5 billion Internet users
Boundary bet ween government and citizens blur
Current behavior: Web data entered by humans. New behavior:
Web data automatically entered by devices (Flickr)
Revenge by gadget
Blurring of (some) political boundaries
• Net work Nations
• MySpace is now 11th largest country in the world
Impact on education
Blurring of “real life” and “virtual life”
Video: “Shift Happens”
Interesting trends: “Did You Know?” and “Did You Know? 2.0”
Trends: a new generation of
tech-sav vy users
91% of mobile phone users keep their phone within one meter
24 hours a day, 7 days a week (from Mary Meeker’s
presentation, at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference)
“What Does Generation Y Want?”
Growing Up Digital: the rise of the Net generation
“Google, a Girl, and the Coming Apocalypse”
Trends: impact on education
See Michael Wesch’s video, “Vision of Students Today,” about the impact of Web 2.0 on the
educational field.
Banning Wikipedia for research papers
A relevant statistic from “Wired” article: 30% of young people don’t even know their own phone
number (and many don’t carry watches any more)
Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announces it will publish its univ. lectures on YouTube
Should children learn to operate in society/schools without Google?
Columbia Center for New Media Teaching & Learning
Crowdsourcing Readings and Resources
Top Web Tools for Students
Student contributions to wikis

Conclusions
Assume Web 2.0 is “real,” even if over-hyped
• Infoworld Oct 2006 assessment: “Bubble 2.0?”
Your objectives should be:

• Ajaxify
• Wikify
• Long-tail-ify
• Open up API’s for mashups
• Enable your people (customers, employees, citizens)
Assess your company’s response to new waves of technology

• Crossing the Chasm
• Is your company an innovator, early adopter, mainstream, or laggard?
• Separate technical response from business response!
Consider a pilot project

• Guidelines for pilots: not too big, not too small; fast results; important, but not mission-
critical; well-measured; used partly as a training opportunity
• Consider letting users drive it
References
Conferences
Books
Websites and blogs
Articles

References - conferences
Web 2.0 Summit 2007
Web 2.0 Expo (USA)
Web 2.0 Expo Berlin
Web 2.0 Expo Tokyo
Le Web 3/Paris
Future of Web Apps/London
Asia Web 2.0 conference/Singapore
Other related Web 2.0 conferences
PopTech (Camden, Maine)
European “Next Web” 2007 (Amsterdam)
AJAX World 2007
Ajaxian conferences
Wikimania 2008 (venue not chosen as of 09/25/2007)
Enterprise 2.0/Boston
Call for participation for May 12-14, 2008 “Where 2.0” conference
note to collaborators: please update these conferences with 2008 dates!
note to collaborators: please add new conferences where relevant!
References - Books
Specific Web 2.0 books
• Web 2.0: The Future of the Internet and Technology Economy
• Building Scalable Web Sites
• Web 2.0 Design Patterns: what entrepreneurs and information architects need to know
Ajax books
• Pragmatic Ajax: A Web 2.0 Primer
• Head Rush Ajax
• Ajax in Action
Ruby on Rails books
• Ruby on Rails: up and running
• Agile Web Development with Rails: A pragmatic guide
Misc books
• Everything is Miscellaneous: the power of the new disorder
• Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything
• The Wealth of Nations: how social production transforms markets and freedoms
• The Clue Train Manifesto
• The Search: how Google and its rivals rewrote the rules of business, and transformed our culture
• Wiki Web Collaboration
• The Long Tail: why the future of business is selling less and less of more and more
note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 books, as appropriate...

References - blogs & websites
my blog: The Yourdon Report
O’Reilly’s: “What is Web 2.0”
O’Reilly Radar blog
Google Maps Mania
StartupNews.com
eHub - Web 2.0 startups
News about startups: TechCrunch
Chris Anderson’s “The Long Tail” blog
Steve Borsch’s “Connecting the Dots” blog
Howard Rheingold’s “Smart Mobs” blog
Official Google blog
Web 2.0 slides - 1,400 sites
Ian Delaney’s “Twopointtouch” blog
David Weinberger’s “JOHO the Blog”
Stowe Boyd’s “/Message” blog
Luis Suarez’s elsua: the Knowledge Management blog
note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 blogs, as appropriate

References - articles
“Someone to Watch Over Me (on a Google Map),” by Theodora Stites, New York Times, Jul 9, 2006
“Small is Beautiful for Web 2.0 Startups,” by Martin LaMonia, CNET News, Feb 6, 2006
“Soft ware Out There,” by John Markoff, New York TImes, Apr 5, 2006
“The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe, Wired, June 2006
“Digital Publishing Scrambles the Rules,” by Motoki Rich, New York Times, Jun 5, 2006
“Scan This Book!”, by Kevin Kelly, May 14, 2006
“The New Wisdom of the Web,” by Steven Levy and Brad Stone, Newsweek, April 3, 2006
“Microsoft Offers Range of Programs That Run Off Web, Not Hard Disk,” by Walter Mossberg, Wall Street Journal, Dec 15, 2005
“Corporate Americas Wakes Up To Web 2.0,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Jun 26, 2006
“Are CIO’s Ignoring Web 2.0 Technologies?”, by Allen Alter, CIO Insight, May 10, 2006
“Web 2.0: The New Internet ‘Boom’ Doesn’t Live Up To Its Name,” by Paul Boutin, Slate, March 29, 2006
“AJAX Spurs Web Rebirth for Desktop Apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005
“Ajax: Smoother Surfing Without Microsoft,” by Daren Briscoe, Newsweek, January 30, 2006
“New Web-Based Technology Draws Applications, Investors,” by Mylene Mangalindan and Rebecca Buckman, Wall Street Journal,
Nov 3, 2005
“Growing Wikipedia Revises Its ‘Anyone Can Edit’ Policy,” by Katie Hafner, New York Times, Jun 17, 2006
“Homo Conexus,” by James Fallows, Technology Review, Jul-Aug 2006
“The Internet Knows What You’ll Do Next,” by David Leonhardt, New York Times, Jul 5, 2006
“Does Every Company Need A Web 2.0 Strategy?” by Dion Hinchcliffe, ZDNet, Aug 9, 2006
“Creating Business Value With Web 2.0,” Cutter IT Journal special issue, October 2006
note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 articles, as appropriate.

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Web 2.

green stuff = “internal” links to other pages in this document

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which drive the individual creation and

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Examples of Web as platform

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Is data “trapped”? Can it be moved to a different platform?

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• YouTube inter view with video creator

Hilary Clinton on Second Life

VC’s desperate to invest in the next Google

Startup companies with “vision,” but no revenue model

Web 2.0 Bullshit Generator

Google’s New Orleans Controversy

Next step: “democratizing” innovation (aka “user-

Business model for mashups

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• Encourages “niche” producers to collaborate with

• Sometimes a niche product can become an unexpected

video: “Day of the Long Tail”

Bits on the Internet changes the rules

• Search engines: without Google, there would be no Long Tail!

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iTunes (100% of 5 million)

Nine rules (summarized from longer discussion in

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Ward Cunningham’s work

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Hobbyists often happy to work for free

Access “loyal” resources

Generate new ideas, products more quickly 49

• David Weinberger’s assessment of Wikipedia credibility

• Wikipedia competitor: Citizendium

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Development of enabling technologies

First Web 2.0 conference in 2004

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Twitter (this isn’t the main Twitter website)

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Integration with Visual Studio

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Dapper’s API ser vice (Israeli-based, has a partnership with

• what about Amazon, iTunes, eBay, etc.?

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