Racial Disparities in Wisconsin and Dane County Oct 2008BW

10/19/2008
National overview: Mass incarceration and the drug
war.
Wisconsin overview
The drug war
Revocations
Dane county
Arrests
Pamela Oliver “in the system”
Prison vs. probation in first episode
Revocation of probation
Post‐prison revocation: the revolving door
US Blacks prison 1995

US whites prison 1995
US blacks prison & jail 1995
US whites prison & jail 1995
About 12% of Black men in their 20s are incarcerated
Russia (prison + jail), about 20% of all Black men have been in
Romania
South Africa prison (Bureau of Justice Statistics)
Ukraine
England & Wales Estimated “lifetime expectancy” of spending some
Scotland
S it
Switzerland
l d time in prison is about 32% for young Black men
time in prison is about 32% for young Black men.
Sweden
Netherlands
(Bureau of Justice Statistics). (Per Bruce Western, this
Japan
Italy
is 59% of Black men with no HS diploma and 18% who
Germany have HS degree)
France
Denmark
China
Chris Wildeman estimates: 25% of Black children born
Canada in 1990 had a parent in prison by age 14, vs 4% of
Belgium
Austria White children; 50% of Black children with HS dropout
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 parents had experienced parental imprisonment
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Black & White Prison Admits per 100,000
1200 10
Imprisonment and arrest rates are expressed as the rate per
100,000 of the appropriate population 9
Example: In 1999 Wisconsin new prison sentences 1000
8
1021 Whites imprisoned, White population of Wisconsin was 7
4,701,123. 800
ons
1021 ÷ 4701123 = .000217.
4701123 = 000217 6
Disparity Ratiio
Prison Admissio
Multiply .00021 by 100,000 = 22, the imprisonment rate per 100,000 600 5
population.
1,266 Blacks imprisoned, Black population of Wisconsin was
4
400
285,308. 3
1266 ÷ 285308 = .004437. 2
Multiply by 100,000 = 444 200
1
Calculate Disparity Ratios by dividing rates:
444/22 = 20.4 the Black/White ratio in new prison sentence rates 0
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
0
2000
Black White Disparity
Imprisonment rates are a function of responses
to crime, not a function of crime itself Based on Bureau of Justice Statistics data from
Property crimes declined steadily between 1970s National Crime Victimization Survey.
and 2000
d
Violent crime declined modestly overall, with
smaller ups and downs in the period
Violent Crime Rates

Property Crime Rates Adjusted victimization rate
Adjusted victimization rate per 100,000 age 12 and over
per 100,000 age 12 and over
60
600
40
400
20
200
0
0
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics - National Crime Victimization Survey
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics - National Crime Victimization Survey
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10/19/2008
Shift to determinate sentencing, higher penalties
LEAA, increased funding for police departments
Crime becomes a political issue
D
Drug war funding gives incentives to police to
f di i i ti t li t
generate drug arrests & convictions: this
escalates in the 1980s
Post‐civil rights post‐riots competitive race
relations, race‐coded political rhetoric.?
B/W Disparity Ratios in Prison Admits, by Of f ense. All States in NCRP Black & White Prison Sentence Rates (NCRP) per 100,000, by Of f ense Type
25.0 450
400
20.0
350
300
15.0
250
200
10.0
150
100
5.0
50
0.0 0
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Drug White Non-drug White Drug Black Non-drug Black

Violent Rob/Burg Thef t Drug Other
Black Ne w Se nte nce s pe r 100,000 pop, by offe ns e . All State s in NCRP
30 0
18 300
Rob/burg Drug
2 50
Violent
20 0
Theft
Other
150
10 0
Theft Other Violent 50

Drug Rob/burg
0 0
0
19 83 19 84 1985 19 86 1987 19 88 198 9 19 90 199 1 19 92 19 93 19 94 199 5 19 96 199 7 19 98 19 99
1983 1999 1983 1999
V io lent Ro b/ B ur Thef t Drug Ot her
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10/19/2008
Pamela Oliver Pamela Oliver
From Bruce Western Punishment & Inequality in America From Bruce Western Punishment & Inequality in America
Black & White Prison Admits per 100,000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Black White WI Black WI White
All Prison Admissions Disparity

1500
All Prison Admissions

20
1000
15
10
500
5
0
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Year
Black Wisconsin Black Other US
Hispanic Wisconsin Hispanic Other US Black Wisconsin Black Other US
White Wisconsin White Other US Hispanic Wisconsin Hispanic Other US
Hispanics Not Included in White & Black Rates Hispanics Not Included in White & Black Rates
Rate per 100,000 population Minority/White Disparity Ratios
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10/19/2008
Non-Drug Sentences Disparity

Non-Drug Sentences
300
20
200
15
10
100
5
0
0
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Year 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Year
Drug Sentences Disparity

200
60
Drug Sentences
150
40
100
50
20
0
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Year
Revocations Disparity
Revocations
600
20
400
15
10
200
5
0
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Year 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Year
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10/19/2008
Wisconsin Prison Admissions for All_Prison_Admissions

Rate Per 100,000 Population
2500
B B B
B B B
B B B B
2000
B
B
B
1500
B
B
B
000
N
10
N N
N N N N N N
N N N N
N H H H
N H H
500
N N H
H H H H H H H
H H H
H
A W W W
A W W W W W W W
W W W W
A W
A W A W
A A A A A A A A A
A A A
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
White Black Hispanic Native Asian
Wisconsin Prison Admissions for All_Prison_Admissions

Minority/White Disparity Prison admission types
25
0.80
B B B B
B B 0.70
20
B B B
B B
B B 0.60
B
15
B B
B
0.50
10
N 0.40
4
N N N N N
N N N H N N N
N H H H N
H H H N N N 0.30
H
5
H H H
H H H H H H
0.20
W W W W
A W
A A
W W
A W W W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W W
A
A A A A A A
0
0.10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
0.00
White Black Hispanic Native Asian 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Sentences Rev +New Rev Only
Wisconsin Prison Admissions for New_Prison_Sentence

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for New_Prison_Sentence Minority/White Disparity
30
B
B B
B B B B
B B B B
800
B B
B B B B
B B B B
B
B B
20
600
B B B
B B
B B
B
400
B B
N H H
10
0
H
4
H H H
H H H N
H H N N N
H N N
N N N N H
N
N H N
H H
N N N N N H N N
H H H N H
200
N N N N H
N N H H H
N N
N H N H N
H N
H H H H H
H W A
W A A
W W W
A W W W
A W A
W A
W W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A
A A A A
0
A
W A A
W A W A
W W W
W W W W
A W W
A W W A
W W
A A A W
A A
A A A A
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 year
year
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10/19/2008
Wisconsin White Rate Per 100,000 Population

By Offense Group
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Per 100,000 Population
2
2
2 2 2
2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2
2 2
2 2
New Sentences Only 5
3 5
1
1 3 5 5
3 1
3 1 1 5 1
1 3
1 3 3 5 1
4 3 1 1
4 3 5 1 1 3 3
4 1
3 1 3 3 3 1
4 4 3 4 3 1
4 4
Rate P
4 4 6 6 4 4 4 4
6 6 4 4
6 6 6 4
6 6 7 7 6 6
7 6
7 7 7
6 6 6
7
6 7 5 6 7 7
7 7 7 7
7 7 7
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year
1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

5 DUI 6 Disorder 7 Other
Includes New_Prison_Sentences
Wisconsin Black Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Black/White Disparity

By Offense Group By Offense Group
100 150 200 250 300 350
60
1 1 1
1 1
1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1
Minority/White Disparity
1
10 20 30 40 50 1
1 1
1 1 6
1 1
1 1 6
1
2
2 1
1
3 1 1
3
2 2 1 6
3 2 1 6
3 2 2 3
2 3 3 2 2 2 6 3 3 6
1 2 6
1 2 3 3 6 6
3 3 2 2 6 1 1 6 6
3 3 3 6
3 2 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 2 6 7 3 3 3
6 3 3 3
6 6 4 7 4
3 2 6
4 4
6 4 3
4 3
4
50 1
7
Rate P
4 6 6 6 6 2
4 4 2 7 7 7 4 4 4
6 6 6 4 4 6 7
2
4 2 2 4 4
4 4 6
4 6 6 6 4 4 6 7 4 4 2 2 2 2 7
2 7
4 6 4 4 2 2 2 2 4 4
4 4 5 7 7 2 2
6 7 7 7 7 7 7
7 7 7 4 4
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
7 7 5
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft 1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

5 DUI 6 Disorder 7 Other 5 DUI 6 Disorder 7 Other
Includes New_Prison_Sentences Includes New_Prison_Sentences
Wisconsin Hispanic Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Hispanic/White Disparity

30
0 60 80 100120140160180
1 1
1
5 10 15 20 25
1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1 1
2 1 1
1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1
1
2 2 2 6 1 1
2 2 2 1 6 1 6
1 2 1 7
3 2 7 1
6
2 2 2
2 1 6 2 3 3 6
6
Rate P
0 20 40
2 3 2 6 6
6 2 2 6
3
1 3 3 6 3 1 7
2 4 2 2 3 6
3 3 3 3 3 6 7
6 2 2 3
7 2
6 6
6 4 6 6 3
4 3 6
3 4 2 3 3 3 2
3
6 6 4
6 6 3 6 3 3 7
2 7 7 2 4 4 4 2
4 2 2
3 4 4 7 3
6 6 4 4 6 3 3
4 4 4
7 7 7
4
4 7 4
6 3 4 4 4 6
4 6 3
5 6 4 4 3 3 7 7 7 3
4
7
4
7 4
7 7 7
5 7 7
5 5
7 5 5 7 4 5 5 5 5 4 4
7
5 5
6
7 7 7 7 7
5 5 4
7 4 4
7 5 5
7
0
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year

Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Wisconsin Native Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Native/White Disparity

20 40 60 80 100 120 140
30
5
2 2
5 10 15 20 25
2 5
2 2 7
2 2 2
2 6
2 5
2 2 2 7 5
2
3 2
3 3 2
7 6 6
7 3
3 2 6 5 4
7 7
3 4 3 5 5 2
3 7 6 7 7 6
4 3 5 6 4
1 4 3 3 6 5 1 6 7 6
1 4 6 3 3 7 3 5 6
5 1 3 2 4 4 4 2
Rate P
1 7 6 4
3 7 1 4 4 3 4 4 3 2 4 6 7
1 3
1 4
1 7 1 4 1
5 5 6 2 2 2 2
5 5 4 2
6 1 7 4 7 3
4 2
3
1 3 6 4 2 2 5 5
1 6 7
3 6 4 1 6
1 1 1 1 2 2 7
1 2
6
7 1 7 1 3 3 7
1 3 1 4 2 1 6 7 7 1
3 3
1
4 1
4 4 6 6
3 6 4 4
2 1 1 3 5 6
1 4
3
6
7 7 1
7 7 3 7 1 3 6 5 3
7 6 7 6 4 1
7 5 4 4
4 6 6 5 5 4 6 6
0
0
5 5 5 5 5 7
5 5 5 5 5 5
7
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year

Wisconsin Asian Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Asian/White Disparity

25
4 4
0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

2
3
2
6
20
2 6
2 2 6
15
3
6 6
2 6
2 3
6
3 6 6
3 3 3 4
3
10
2 2 1
2 6 4
6
2 3
6
2 3
2 2
3
6 3 3 3 6
6 4 4
3 3 1 1
6 2 3
4 2 4 3
2 1 1
3 6 2 3
Rate P
3
4 6 2 3 2 4 2
7 1
3 2
1 1 6
4 4 7
5
3 6 7 2
4 3 1 3 7
1 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1
2 7 7
2
1
4 1 7 5 1 2 6 7
2
1 1 6 1 7
6
7
4 1 7
1 1 2 4 4 1 2 4
7 4
7 6
4 1 1 1 4 4 4
5 4
7
4 7
4 5
3
7
4 3
5
0
3
2
5
6
7 7
3
5
6
1 7
3
5
6
1
4 5
7 5
7 7
5
1 5 5
6
7
4 5
6
7
4 5 5
7 5 5 5 5 2
3
5
6
7 7
3
6
5
1 7
3
6
4
1 7
5 7
5 1
7
5 5 5
6
7
4 5
6
7
4 5 5
7 5 5 5 5
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for Revocation_Parole_MR_ES

B
1000
B
B B
800
B
B B B
B
B
600
B
B
B
N
00
40
B N N
B N N
N N N
B N N N N N
200
B N
N H
N H H H H H H
N H H H H H
H H H
H H W W W W
W W
A W W
A W
A W W
A W
A W
A W W W
A W
A A A A A
A A A A A
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Wisconsin Prison Admissions for Revocation_Parole_MR_ES Wisconsin Prison Admissions for Revocation_Probation
Minority/White Disparity Rate Per 100,000 Population
800
25
B
B B
B
B B B B B
B B
B
20
B B B B
B
600
B B
B
B B B B
B B
15
B
B
400
B
B B N N N
B B N
10
B N N N
N N N N N N N
N N N N
N N N N N N
200
N N H N
N N N N N H H
H H H H
5
N H H H H H
H H H N H H H
H H H H H H
H H H H H H
H H H H W
W W A
W W W W A
W W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
W W W W W
A W W W W W W W W W W A A W W W W
A W A A A A A
A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
0
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
White Black Hispanic Native Asian White Black Hispanic Native Asian
Wisconsin Prison Admissions for Revocation_Probation

B
B
20
B B
B
B B
B
B
15
B B B B
B
B B
B
10
N
N N
N N
N N N
N
N H N N N N
H H N
N H H N
5
H H H H
H H H H H H H H
W W W W A
W W W W A
W W
A W
A W W W W W
A A W
A A A A A A A A
A A A
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year
Wisconsin Male In_Prison_All Wisconsin Male In_Prison_All

Rate Per 100,000 Population Minority/White Disparity
4000
20
B B B
B B B
B B B B B
B B B
B B B B B
B B B
B
3000
B B B
15
B
B
B
B
2000
B
10
B
B
B N
N N N N N
N N N N N
1000
N N N N N N N N N N
N H H H H H H N N N N
5
H N
N N
H H H H H
N N N
H H H H H H H H H
N N H H H H H H H H
H H
H H
H W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A A W W W W W
A A
W A
W W
A W
A A
W W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A W
A
W W
A W W
A W
A W A A A A
A A
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Wisconsin Male In_Prison_or_On_Supervision Wisconsin Male In_Prison_or_On_Supervision

Rate Per 100,000 Population Minority/White Disparity
6000
10
B B B B B B B B
B B B B B B
B B B B
B B
B B B B B B
8
B B B
B
4000
B
B
6
B
B N N N N N N N N N N
N N N
N N N N N N N
N N
4
N N N N
00
N N N N N N
200
N H H H H H
N H H H
H H
H H H H H H H H H
H H H H H H H H H H H
2
H
H
H H
W
A A
W A
W W
A W
A W W W W W W W W W W W W
A A
W A
W A
W W
A W W W W W W
W W W W W
A W
A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
W A A A A A
A A A A
0
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
In mid‐2006, 15% of Black men in Wisconsin aged
25 were in prison (~14% were in prison between
age 24 and 33) compared to 1% of White & Asian
men, 3% of Hispanic men and 5% of Native
American men. This does not include jail.
Considering all state correctional supervision
(prison, parole, probation) 35‐36% of Black men
ages 25‐27 were under control, versus 5% of
White men, and 18% of Native men . The peak
was in the early 20s at 10% for Hispanic men and
7‐8% for Asian men.
Pamela Oliver
Rate of First Prison Entry By Age & Race, 2000-2006 Minority/White Disparity in Rate of First Prison Entry
0 10000 15000 20000
50
er 100,000 population
40
Disparity Ratio
20 30
D
Rate pe
5000
10
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
age age
White Black HispWh Native Asian White Black HispWh Native Asian
Ages 55+ are grouped together Ages 55+ are grouped together
Includes Sentences Only, 2000-2006 Includes Sentences Only, 2000-2006
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Rate of First Prison Entry By Age & Race, 2000-2006 Minority/White Disparity in Rate of First Prison Entry
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
20
15
Disparity Ratio
10
D
Rate pe
5
0
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
age age
White Black HispWh Native Asian White Black HispWh Native Asian
Ages 55+ are grouped together Ages 55+ are grouped together
Includes Revocations Only, 2000-2006 Includes Revocations Only, 2000-2006
Rate of First Prison Entry By Age & Race, 2000-2006 white rate of first prison entry
10000 20000 30000 40000
80
rate per 100,000 population
20 40 60
Rate pe
2 0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
0
Age in 3 or 4 year groups

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
age Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft
DUI Disorder Other
White Black HispWh Native Asian
Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only
Ages 55+ are grouped together
Includes both new sentences and revocations 2000-2006
black rate of first prison entry black/white disparity in first prison entry by age & offense
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
80
Minority//White Disparity Ratio

20 40 60
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
0
Age in 3 or 4 year groups

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft Age in 3 or 4 year groups
DUI Disorder Other
Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft
Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only DUI Disorder Other
Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
whitehisp rate of first prison entry whitehisp/white disparity

600
60
Minority/White Disparity Ratio
400
40
200
20
0
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Age in 3 or 4 year groups Age in 3 or 4 year groups
Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft

DUI Disorder Other DUI Disorder Other
Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only Prison admissions Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only
native rate of first prison entry native/white disparity
30
600
Minority/White Disparity Ratio

20
200 400
10
0
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Age in 3 or 4 year groups Age in 3 or 4 year groups
Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft

DUI Disorder Other DUI Disorder Other
Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only Prison admissions Wisconsin 2000-2006, includes sentences only
Next few slides are from research by Devah
Pager, new PhD from University of Wisconsin
Sociology, now on faculty at Princeton
Thi
This was a controlled experiment in which
t ll d i t i hi h
matched pairs of applicants applied for entry‐
level jobs advertised in Milwaukee newspapers
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Have been rising
Number in Community Supervision Revocations Without New Sentences as Proportion of
50,000 0.40 Total Prison Admits
45,000
0.35
40,000
35,000 0.30
dmissions
30,000
0.25
25,000
20 000
20,000 0 20
0.20
Proportion of Total Ad
15,000
0.15
10,000
5,000 0.10
0
0.05
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
White Black American Indian 0.00
Asian or Pacific Islander White Hispanic 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
White (Not Hisp) Black AmerInd Asian/PI White Hispanic Total
Proportion of those on probation admitted to prison on a
revocation with no new prison sentence
6%
5% 90% of revocations are with no new prison
sentence “technical violation” (but perhaps
4% some committed a crime that is not prosecuted)
3% Statewide, Blacks on probation nearly 3x more
likely to be revoked than Whites
2%
Statewide, Blacks on post‐prison supervision
1% about 50% more likely to be revoked than Whites
0% Controversies about whether revocations are
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 due to over‐zealous P&P or due to offenders’
White Black White Hispanic American Indian Asian/PI failures to rehabilitate
Pamela Oliver
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10/19/2008
Bad but showing some progress
Dane Male In_Prison

0 10000 15000 20000

B
er 100,000 Population B
B B
B
B B B
B B B
B B B
B
B B
Rate Pe
N
5000
N N N N
N N N
N N N N
N N N
N N
H H H H
H H H H H H H H
H H W W W W W W W W W H
W H
W H
W W
W
A W
A W
A W
A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year

Ages 18-54 only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County
Dane Male In_Prison Dane Female In_Prison

Minority/White Disparity Rate Per 100,000 Population
30
B
1000 1500 2000
B B
B
er 100,000 Population
B B B
B
B
B B B
B B
B B B B
20
B B
B B B
B B
B
B B B B
B
N N
B B
10
1
Rate Pe
N N N N N
500
N N N N N N N
N N N N B
N N N N N N N
H N
H N N
H H H H H H N
H N
H H
N H
H H H H H H H H H N
W W W W W W W W W W W H
W H
W H
W H
W H
W H
W H W W H
W H H H
W W
H
A A A A A A A A A A A A A A W W A
W W
A W
A W
A A
W W
A W
A A A W
H
A W
A W
A A A
A A A
0
N
A N
A A
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
Ages 18-54 only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County Ages 18-54 only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County
Pamela Oliver
14
10/19/2008
Dane Female In_Prison

50
B
B B
40
B
B
B
30
B
B B
N B
N B
20
B B
B
B B
10
N B
N H H N N N N N
H H N
H N
H H N
H N H N
H H H H H H N
W W W
A W
A W
A W
A A
W W
A W
A W W
A W
A W
H
A W
A W
A W
A W
H
A
0
N
A N
A A
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year

Ages 18-54 only, convicted or supervised in or released to Dane County
Dane County New_Prison_Sentences Rate Per 100,000 Population Dane County New_Prison_Sentences Minority/White Disparity
1500
80
B
B B B
B
60
B B
1000
B
B B B
B
B
B
40
B B
B B B
B B
B N N B
500
B B B B
B B
B B B
20
N B B N
N N N
N H N N N H N
H H N H H N
N H H H H N N N
H H N N N H
N H N N N H H N H N H N N
A H H H H H H A H H
N H H H
W W W W
A W
A W
A W W
A W
A A
W A
W H
W
A W
A W
A H
W W
A H
W
A W W W W
A W
A W
A W W
A W
A A
W A
W H
W
A W
A W
A W
H W
A W
A
0
A A A N N
A A A A N A
N
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
Ages 18-54 only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents Ages 18-54 only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents
black/white disparity in new prison sentences Dane County Revocations_Probation Rate Per 100,000 Population
1500
200
B
B
B B
B B
150
B
1000
B
B B
disp
B
100
B B
B
B
B
500
N
N
50
N N
H H N N N
N H H N N
H
N
H N
H N N H H H
H N H H
H
W W A
W H
W W W W W W
H W
A W
A W
A H
W W
A W
A W
A W
A
0
A A A A A A A A N A N
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

2000 2002 2004 2006 year
year
drug assault rob/burg
Ages 18-54 only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents
DUI disorder other
Dane County
Pamela Oliver
15
10/19/2008
Dane County Revocations_Probation Minority/White Disparity Dane County Revocations_Parole_MR_ES Rate Per 100,000 Population
1500
60
B B
B B
B B B
B B B
1000
B
40
B B B
B B
B B B B
B B
B B
B B
B N
B B B
B
500
B
20
N N
B N N N N
N B N
N
N N N N N N
H H N N
N N H H N
H N N H H N H N
H N N N N H H
H H N N H H H H N H H
H
W W A
W H
W W W W W W W W W H
W W H
W W W H
W W W H W
H W H
W H
W W H
W
H A A A A A A A W W W W A W W W
A H W A A
0
0
A A A A A A A A N A N A H
A A A A A
H H A A A A A A A
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year year
Ages 18-54 only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents Ages 18-54 only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents
Dane County Revocations_Parole_MR_ES Minority/White Disparity

Proportion Local Residents Among New_Prison_Sentences ih Dane County
80
1
N A
H A A A A
H A A A A
H A
H
B H
B B
H B
B B B B
B B N B H A H B H B
B
60
.8
B H B B B
B N
W N
H A
W N
H
B H
B B H H N N W W W A
N
W W W
W
.6
H W W W
B W W H
40
B B W W W
N B B B N A N N N
B
B B N
.4
B N N
B
N N
20
N N
N
N N
.2
N N N N
H N N H N
H N H N H
H H H H H H H
W W W W W
A W W W
A W W
H W W
H W W
A W W W
A
0
A H
A A A A A
H H A A A A A A A
0
A N
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
Ages 18-54 only, convicted and supervised in and released to Dane County, count as residents
County residence is indicated by being supervised in or released to Dane County
Minority/White Disparity in Juvenile Arrests

Murder/Mansl
Rape/Sex Off
Robbery
Assault
Burglary
Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing
Vandalism
Underlying Crime + Enforcement Weapons
Prostitution
Opium/Cocaine Sales
Marijuana Sales
Oth Sales
Opium/Cocaine Poss
Poss. Hispanics
Marijuana Poss.
Other Poss. Counted as
Family Offenses
DUI White in Arrest
Public Order Statistics
Other (Exc. Traffic)
0 5 10 15 20
equal blackdisp nativedisp asiandisp

Dane County 2000-2006 (average)
Most Black/White disparities are statistically significant,
Pamela Oliver
16
10/19/2008
Minority/White Disparity in Adult Arrests

Murder/Mansl
Rape/Sex Off Differences in crime
Robbery
Assault
Burglary These cannot be ignored. Underlying factors include
Theft inequality, school failure, family troubles.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing Differences in surveillance
Vandalism
Weapons Policing is not random: crimes in some places are much
Prostitution
Opium/Cocaine Sales more likely to get caught
Marijuana Sales
Oth Sales
Opium/Cocaine Poss. Hispanics
Differences in police responses
Marijuana Poss.
Other Poss. Counted as Jurisdictional differences (e.g. ticket vs. arrest)
Family Offenses
DUI
White in Arrest Warn & release vs. arrest
Statistics
Public Order
Other (Exc. Traffic) Discretionary charging decisions. E.g. assault vs.
disorderly conduct.
0 10 20 30 Escalating interactions Æ resisting arrest, assaulting an
officer, etc.
equal blackdisp nativedisp asiandisp
Dane County 2000-2006 (average)
Most Black/White disparities are statistically significant,
Proportion of first-time probation felony cases revoked

Given that you are on probation, what are you .25
chances of revocation?
.2
Over 90% of revocations involve no new
oked
sentence, but this is difficult to count anyway
t b t thi i diffi lt t t
Proportion revo
.15
Looking only at felonies, there is a disparity in
.1
probation revocation
.05
0
White Black Native Asian Hispanic

Not adjusted for time at risk of revocation
Dane County Cases in Community Supervision 2000-2006
Probability of first-time felony probationer being revoked

Once you are sentenced to prison or revoked into
.3
prison, you get in the revolving door of post‐
prison revocations
ed
P l
Parole, mandatory release, extended supervision
d t l t d d i i
probability revoke
.2
2

apply to different people but are roughly
comparable in their revocation rates, are
.1
grouped together here
0

Dane County episodes beginning 2000-2004
Pamela Oliver
17
10/19/2008
Rate of Prison Admission for Revocation
2000
Probability of revocation post-prison
1500
.3
rate
1000
ed
probability revoke
.2
2
500
.1
0
2000 2002 2004 2006
year
white black native asian hispanic

0

Dane County episodes, felonies only Dane County
Disparity in Prison Admission for Revocation

40
Consider two youths committing same kinds of low‐level
30
delinquency: petty theft, vandalism, smoking marijuana,
getting into fights. Assume the individuals have exactly
disp
the same “true” rate of committing petty crimes.
20
Christopher lives in a low‐crime area that is not heavily
p y
policed. His crimes do not come to police attention.
10
Jamal lives in a high‐crime area that has high police
presence. His crimes get noticed and lead to an
accumulating record.
0
2000 2002 2004 2006

Is it fair to punish Jamal more for a given crime (say retail
year theft) because he has more prior arrests? Is there a way
to account for this?
Dane County
Black/White Disparity in Corrections/Arrest Ratio (Dane 2000-2006)
1. Murder/Mansl
3. Rape/Sex Off
4. Robbery
5. Assault
6. Burglary
7. Theft
8. Motor Vehicle Theft
10. Arson
The next few slides calculate the ratio of “episodes” in the corrections 11. Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing
database to arrests in the UCR. An episode is counted if it is the next to 15. Vandalism
occur after the “date of offense” in the DOC records; offenses in the UCR 16. Weapons
17. Prostitution
are matched up as best as we can (i.e. imperfectly). Arrests and episodes
p p y p 21. Opium/Cocaine
p Sales
from 2000‐2006 are used. 22. Marijuana Sales
23. Oth Sales
The ratio of the number of corrections episodes to the number of arrests is 26. Opium/Cocaine Poss.
calculated within each race‐offense group. 27. Marijuana Poss.
28. Other Poss.
Then the disparity ratio or relative rate index is calculated: the extent to 31. Family Offenses
which minorities are more likely to end up in the system after arrest. 32. DUI
33. Public Order
People can be arrested multiple times or not at all for a given episode, so this 36. Other (Exc. Traffic)
is an approximation.
Only Blacks have enough cases to make this meaningful. 0 1 2 3 4
Black bar is a ratio of one to use as a benchmark
Comparison of corrections episodes to arrests
Pamela Oliver
18
10/19/2008
Black/White Disparity in Prison/Arrest Ratio (Dane 2000-2006) Allocation of Total Black-White Difference in Corrections
1. Murder/Mansl Probation + Prison
3. Rape/Sex Off 63%
4. Robbery
.6
5. Assault
6. Burglary
7. Theft
10. Arson
11. Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing
37%
.4
15. Vandalism
16. Weapons
17. Prostitution
21 Opium/Cocaine Sales
21.
22. Marijuana Sales
23. Oth Sales
26. Opium/Cocaine Poss.
.2
27. Marijuana Poss.
28. Other Poss.
31. Family Offenses
32. DUI
33. Public Order
36. Other (Exc. Traffic)
0
0 2 4 6 8 Arrests Convict
Black bar is a ratio of one to use as a benchmark
Comparison of prison episodes to arrests
Allocation of Total Black - White Difference in Prison Sentences Proportion off Black - White Difference in Rate of Correctional Supervision
44%
1. Murder/Mansl
3. Rape/Sex Off
.4
4. Robbery
5. Assault
36% 6. Burglary
7. Theft
10. Arson
.3
15. Vandalism
16. Weapons
17. Prostitution
21. Opium/Cocaine Sales
20% 22. Marijuana Sales
23. Oth Sales
.2

27 Marijuana
27. M ij P
Poss.
28. Other Poss.
31. Family Offenses
32. DUI
33. Public Order
.1
0 .05 .1 .15 .2
0
Arrest Convict
Arrest Convict Sentence
Negative values indicate Whites have higher rates than Black
Dane County 2000-2006 Bars represent proportion of total difference between Black and White rates
Proportion off Black - White Difference in Rate of Entering Prison

1. Murder/Mansl
3. Rape/Sex Off
4. Robbery
5. Assault
6. Burglary
7. Theft
10. Arson
Statistical: arrests & episodes don’t match up.
15. Vandalism
16. Weapons
17. Prostitution
(But why would this be different by race?)
21. Opium/Cocaine Sales
22. Marijuana Sales
23. Oth Sales Charging decisions, plea bargains, defense
27 Marijuana
27. M ij P
Poss.
28. Other Poss. counsel, prosecution
l ti
31. Family Offenses
32. DUI
33. Public Order
Judicial sentences
-.05 0 .05 .1 .15 .2
Arrest Convict Sentence
Negative values indicate Whites have higher rates than Black

Bars represent proportion of total difference between Black and White rates
Pamela Oliver
19
10/19/2008
Within offense Whites may commit less serious
offenses in that group. Hard to test, but little Focuses on sentence after adjudicated guilty of a
evidence for this. particular offense
Sentencing Commission compared people with exactly the
same charge
g
Overcharging for minorities is found more often than
undercharging
Prior records. Definitely a factor. Partly a
consequence of policing.
Discriminatory treatment, conscious or unconscious,
direct or indirect (e.g. through economic
considerations)
Pamela Oliver
Staff: Kristi Waits, Executive Director; Andrew
Wiseman, Deputy Director; Brenda R. Mayrack,
Analyst
CCAP + DOC data
Offenses committed after January 31 2003 and
Offenses committed after January 31, 2003 and
sentenced before October 1, 2006
5 common offenses: sexual assault of child, sexual
assault, robbery + armed robbery, burglary, drug
trafficking Notes: “Other” includes Asians + American Indians + any others; White, Black &
Sentencing for worst offense, in cases of multiple Other exclude Hispanics.
offenses
1. “Legal” factors of offense severity and prior convictions have These use multi‐variable statistics to assess the
the largest effect on sentences. (As we would hope!)
2. Men are more likely than women to be sentenced to prison, impact of each factor while controlling for all
controlling for all other factors. other factors in the model
3. Blacks & Hispanics are more likely to be sentenced to prison
rather than put on probation after controls for offense type,
h h b f l f ff Th h l id
They show clear evidence of an overall effect of
f ll ff t f
felony class, prior convictions, number of other charges, sex,
and county of sentencing. race on likelihood of being sentenced to prison,
a) Race difference is larger for less serious offenses given that there is a guilty finding
b) Race difference even comparing people with no prior convictions.
4. There is no consistent racial difference in the LENGTH of the Note there is a sex effect, too!
sentence if a prison sentence is given
Pamela Oliver
20
10/19/2008
Statistically controlling for other factors
Blacks 47% & Hispanics 65% more likely to get a
http://wsc.wi.gov//
http://wsc.wi.gov
prison sentence for non‐drug crimes
Blacks nearly twice as likely (196%) and Hispanics
y y( 9 ) p
nearly 2 and a half times as likely (243%) to get a
prison sentence for a drug crime
Men were 272% more likely than women to get a
prison sentence for a non‐drug offense and 250%
more likely to get a prison sentence for a drug
offense.
Focus on WHETHER to give a prison sentence, not Using DOC data which includes community
just how long a sentence should be given supervision as well as prison
Examine plea bargaining processes which often pre‐ Felonies only
determines the sentence type as well as the severity
An offenders FIRST DOC record.
of the charged offense
Consider impact of social factors (i.e. job, marriage, Is the first record incarceration or community
home) on sentencing supervision? I.e. roughly a measure (with a little
error) of was the sentence prison or probation.
Remember that a record of prior arrests &
misdemeanors may be due to patterns of policing
Pamela Oliver
Pamela Oliver
21
10/19/2008
Proportion of felony corrections cases that are incarceration

Murder/Mansl
Rape/Sex Off
Robbery
Assault
Burglary
Logistic regression predicting prison vs probation for Theft
Motor Vehicle Theft
Arson
first offense felonies controlling for offense group & Forg./Fraud/Emb/Fencing
Vandalism
age & sex finds significant race & sex effects Weapons
Prostitution
Opium/Cocaine Sales
There is prima facie evidence that the in/out prison Marijuana Sales
Oth Sales
vs. probation decision (not sentence length)varies Opium/Cocaine Poss.
Marijuana Poss.
Other Poss.
by race & sex Family Offenses
DUI
This is the finding of the Sentencing Commission Public Order
Other (Exc. Traffic)
This is the finding of many other studies elsewhere
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Prior juvenile record probably plays a role – but remember
the problem with prior record white black hispanic native asian
Limited to first episode after offense & first episode for that offender
How can we fairly treat the differences in prior
This is not a sound bite issue. records that arise from the realities of policing
Factors include a combination of bias, real practices (non‐uniform surveillance)?
differences in serious crime, social & political How can we address the racial disparities in prison
conditions
diti vs. probation sentences? Some research says the
Patterns are arising from the core structures of racial discrepancy is worse with plea bargaining than
our society trials. What is the role of the judge?
But there are steps we can take How can we address BOTH Wisconsin’s overall
unusually high revocation rate AND the racial
disparity in revocations?
Treatment and public education are the most Help depoliticize crime as an issue
effective ways to reduce drug use Distinguish among different kinds of crimes
Drug enforcement just increases the profits of
illegal drugs, makes the problem worse Take the crime problems of poor (& economically
integrated) neighborhoods seriously without
Learn about the consequences of alcohol
prohibition: drive‐by shootings, organized crime over‐reacting and “middle class panic”
The largest racial disparities are for drug offenses Call for rehabilitation & restoration for lesser
Association of violence with drugs is due to offenses, not “lock ‘em up”
illegality & police enforcement
Pamela Oliver
22
10/19/2008
The vast majority of offenders are not murderers Reduce poverty and deprivation through income
or rapists – they will get out transfers (e.g. earned income credit), training
Insist the system focus on rehabilitating and programs, living wages
reintegrating offenders, rather than looking for
i t ti ff d th th l ki f P id i l
Provide social support, education, constructive
t d ti t ti
opportunities to incarcerate them alternatives for juveniles who are not doing well
NOTE: Wisconsin has abolished parole, but has in school
“extended supervision” Need to break the inter‐generational cycle
caused by massive incarceration
We cannot move from an unjust to a just
Racial discrimination in employment & housing situation by ignoring race and pretending the
reduce constructive options disparities are not there
Conscious and unconscious biases, perceptions, We cannot achieve racial justice by ignoring the
assumptions affect policing & sentencing
ti ff t li i & t i real differences in serious crimes, economic &
l diff i i i i &
White fear of crime more sensitive to presence of social conditions
Blacks than to actual crime rates We cannot achieve racial justice by treating this
Politicians play on Whites’ race‐tinged crime as “somebody else’s” problem
fears in pushing “tough on crime” policies Politics caused the problem, and politicians need
to be part of the solution
Rate of Prison Admission for New Sent

800
Has copy of this presentation + lots of other stuff
600
Web site: www.ssc.wisc.edu/~oliver OR google
“Pamela Oliver sociology”
rate
400
Follow the links to “racial disparities” section
200
0
2000 2002 2004 2006

year

Dane County
Pamela Oliver
23
10/19/2008
Disparity in Prison Admission for New Sent Number of prison admission by type, all races
250
30
umber Prison Admits

150 200
20
disp
100
Nu
10
0
50
2000 2002 2004 2006
year
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 New Sent Prob Rev

year Prob Rev + new Post-Prison Rev
Post-Prison Rev + new
Dane County 2000-2006
Dane County
Pamela Oliver
24

Racial Disparities in Wisconsin and Dane County Oct 2008BW

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10/19/2008

US Blacks prison 1995

Black & White Prison Admits per 100,000

Black White Disparity

Violent Crime Rates

Drug White Non-drug White Drug Black Non-drug Black

Black Ne w Se nte nce s pe r 100,000 pop, by offe ns e . All State s in NCRP

Theft Other Violent 50

Black & White Prison Admits per 100,000

Black White WI Black WI White

All Prison Admissions Disparity

All Prison Admissions

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Non-Drug Sentences Disparity

Drug Sentences Disparity

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for All_Prison_Admissions

White Black Hispanic Native Asian

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for All_Prison_Admissions

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for New_Prison_Sentence

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Wisconsin White Rate Per 100,000 Population

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

Wisconsin Black Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Black/White Disparity

1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft 1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

Wisconsin Hispanic Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Hispanic/White Disparity

1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft 1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

Wisconsin Native Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Native/White Disparity

1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft 1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

Wisconsin Asian Rate Per 100,000 Population Wisconsin Asian/White Disparity

0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft 1 Drug 2 Assaultive 3 Rob/Burg 4 Theft

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for Revocation_Parole_MR_ES

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

White Black Hispanic Native Asian

Wisconsin Prison Admissions for Revocation_Probation

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

White Black Hispanic Native Asian

Wisconsin Male In_Prison_All Wisconsin Male In_Prison_All

Wisconsin Male In_Prison_or_On_Supervision Wisconsin Male In_Prison_or_On_Supervision

Age in 3 or 4 year groups

Minority//White Disparity Ratio

Age in 3 or 4 year groups

whitehisp rate of first prison entry whitehisp/white disparity

Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft

native rate of first prison entry native/white disparity

Minority/White Disparity Ratio

Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft Drugs Assaultive Rob/Burg Theft

Dane Male In_Prison

0 10000 15000 20000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

White Black Hispanic Native Asian

Dane Male In_Prison Dane Female In_Prison

Dane Female In_Prison

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

White Black Hispanic Native Asian

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Dane County Revocations_Parole_MR_ES Minority/White Disparity

Minority/White Disparity in Juvenile Arrests

equal blackdisp nativedisp asiandisp

Most Black/White disparities are statistically significant,