Jakarta Daily Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Morning Brief
IDX (11/22/2010) 3,741.23

Change : 16.18 (0.43%)

Transaction Volume (bn) : 5.76

Transaction Value (Rp tn) : 4.70

Market Cap (Rp tn) : 3,221

Global Indices Chg (%)

Dow Jones (11/22) 11,178.58 -24.97 -0.22%

Nasdaq (11/22) 2,532.02 13.9 0.55%
Market Review
S&P 500 (11/22) 1,197.84 -1.89 -0.16%
IDX managed to be closed positive at yesterday’s trading session driven by
FTSE 100 (11/22) 5,680.83 -52 -0.91% the strengthening BUMI, TLKM, SMGR, CPIN, BMRI and CMNP while other
Asian bourses seen mixed affected by Chinese policy to increase Statutory
DAX (11/22) 6,822.05 -21.5 -0.31% in order to withstand high inflation. The positive trend from global stocks
CAC 40 (11/22) 3,818.89 -41.27 -1.07% markets last Friday didn’t influenced much to the Asian stocks markets as
investors in Asia currently paying more attention to Chinese act to withstand
Nikkei (11/22) 10,115.19 92.80 0.93% high inflation and reducing economic growth acceleration affected by slow
Hang Seng (11/22) 23,524.02 -81.69 -0.35% economic growth in US and Euro zone.
Straits Times (11/22) 3,194.24 -3.13 -0.10%
Market Outlook
Kospi (11/22) 1,944.34 3.38 0.17%
• US stocks markets ended mixed at last night’s trading session as
Commodity Prices (*) Chg (%) investors in US are expecting the release of FOMC Minutes
Crude Oil (US$/Barrels) 81.84 -0.57 -0.69%
Meeting results, existing home sales and reading on third-quarter
GDP. The worries over other periphery euro zone countries and
Gold (US$/Troy Ounce) 1,361.60 4.10 0.30% volatility within the Irish government after Ireland agreed to a
Nickel LME (US$/MT) 21,615 -70 -0.32%
bailout, gave investors pause.

Tin LME (US$/MT) 25,200 -50 -0.20%

• European shares fell on yesterday’s trading session on worries
CPO BMD (MYR/Ton) 3,184 -142 -4.27% that other euro zone peripheral countries such as Portugal and
Spain will need to be bailed out like Ireland. Adding to Ireland’s
(*) : - Nickel & Tin Closing Price per Nov 22, 2010
- Crude Oil & Gold Closing Price per 08:40 Local Time woes, Ireland’s green party called for an early election in January
and said it would pull out of government once a series of fiscal
Dual Listing (NYSE) Chg Rp packages and budgets were in place.
TLKM (US$) 37.78 0.34 8,447
• Asian stocks markets at this morning’s opening trading session
ISAT (US$) 33.71 1.82 6,029 seen mostly lower as a reaction to the potential spread of Ireland’s
debt crisis to other European countries like Portugal and Spain
Key Interest Rates Latest Previous which also had a large budget deficit. This morning Straits Times,
Kospi and Hang Seng seen lower by 0.61%, 0.27% and 0.99% per
BI-Rate 6.50% 6.50%
09:05 local time.
Fed-Rate 0-0.25% 0-0.25%
• We expect IDX to move lower at today’s trading session affected
Exchange Rate Rp Chg (%) by down trend on global and regional stocks markets as euro
US$/IDR (08:40 Local Time) 8,943 18.00 0.20%
zone’s debt crisis linger. Commodities based stocks will likely
continues to fell as commodities prices still seen lower especially
KRW/IDR (08:40 Local Time) 7.88 0.00 0.00% nickel, tin and CPO prices. We expect IDX to move between support
level 3,695-3,718 and resistance level 3,753-3,759.

Research Analyst : Teuku Hendry Andrean

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Jakarta Daily Morning Brief Tuesday, November 23, 2010

News
Government will Limit Subsidized Fuel Consumption by January 2011
Government shall limit the consumption of subsidized fuel by January 2011. Yet, the policy
target, whether or not it will apply to all private cars or those produced in 2005 and after, is
not yet decided. The increasing volume of fuel this year from 26.5 million KL to 38.75 million
KL apparently does not lead government to raise the subsidy allocation in the revised state
budget. By this assumption, it is estimated that the growth of subsidized fuel consumers is
8% and may grow to 10% by next year supposed government does not limit the fuel
consumption. The government ensures that they will still grant subsidy for the citizens who
highly need it, such as those using public transportation, motorcycle users and fishermen.

BBTN’s ABS DSMF-BTN II/2009 Rated idAAA

PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) reassigned the idAAA rating to Asset-Backed
Security (ABS) DSMF-BTN II/2009 worth IDR 272.87 billion. The determination of the
derivative asset rating called Danareksa Sarana Multigriya Finansial-Bank Tabungan Negara
(DSMF-BTN) is in line with the strong mortgage profile that is securitized. Other supporting
factors are the strong profile of PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk [BTN] as a service provider,
the credit enhancement from the ABS tranche B and strong liquidity reserves from PT
Sarana Multigriya Finansial [SMF]. Currently, BTN and SMF are still processing ABS III of
IDR 750 billion to the Capital Market Supervisory Agency and Financial Institution (Bapepam
-LK). In the issuance, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk serves as custodian bank while Danareksa
Invesment Management (DIM) serves as investment manager.

Thailand Suffers Another Recession This Year

Thailand's economy back into recession after the contraction during the last two
quarters. This is due to the strengthening baht and the weak global economy. Government
data reported that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.2% in the third
quarter of 2010. In the previous quarter, Thailand have declined by 0.6%. Two consecutive
decline is categorized as a recession. Based on the calculation of year-on-year basis, growth
in Thailand slowed to 6.7% in the third quarter of this year, compared with the period last
year. The figure was previously reached 9.2% per quarter two 2010. Thailand's economy is
somewhat difficult to get up after the politically motivated killings at the beginning of this
year. It was also affected by US-European economic slowdown and a weakening dollar. Baht
and some other Asian currencies strengthened against the greenback and the strongest
record for 13 years. Strong currency impact on the exports of this country.

Stock Pick
CODE CLOSE S2 S1 R1 R2 REC

SMGR 9900 9250 9550 10050 10250 Accumulate

Trading
CMNP 1480 1340 1410 1520 1560
Buy

INTP 17800 17250 17550 17950 18150 Accumulate

Disclaimer : This document is for infoma-
tion only and for the use of the recipient. It
is not to be reproduced or copied or made BRAU 530 510 520 540 550 Reduce
available to others. Under no circum-
stances is it to be considered as an offer to
sell or solicitation to buy any security, Any
recommendation contained in this report
UNVR 17300 16950 17150 17450 17650 Hold
may not to be suitable for all investors.
Moreover, although the information Remarks : S2 = Support 2 REC Definitions : Buy = Enter a long position with full amount
contained herein has been obtained from S1 = Support 1 Accumulate = Enter a long position with portion of the amount
sources believed to be reliable, its accu- R1 = Resistance 1 Hold = Do not cover or sell current position / Do not initiate new position
racy, completeness and reliability cannot R2 = Resistance 2 Reduce = Sell a portion of a position
be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT REC = Recommendations Sell = Sell the full position
Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia Sell On Strength = Sell the position in R1 or R2 Level
Trading Buy = Speculative Buy and Sell the position at R1 or R2 Level

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