Adv. Space Res. Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. (5)273—(5)276, 1993 0273—1177)93 S24.

IXI
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SATELLITE DATA APPLICATION IN THE

STUDY OF VARIABILITY OF DATES OF
ONSET OF INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON AND
ITS INFLUENCE ON YIELD OF CROPS
V. R. Mujumdar, V. R. Deshpande and D. K. Paul
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, Pune-411008, India

ABSTRACT

Agriculture in India is strongly dependent on rainfall. Besides the quantum of rainfall,

the timely commencement of rainy season (onset of monsoon) has also dominating influence
on the yield of crops. Timely sowing especially in case of crops grown under rainfed
condition gives better yields. It is therefore necessary that the beginning of cropping
season is linked with the first monsoon rainfall which would provide the required moisture
for the sowing operations. The most variable nature of onset and subsequent behaviour of
summer monsoon season makes the task difficult for the farmers and planners to plan their
cropping strategies and to estimate the final yield. The year to year variability of dates
of onset of monsoon over different parts of India have been studied based on satellite
derived data. The yield of different crops under early, normal and late onset are also
studied. Delayed onset, is found to have adverse effect on the yields.
INTRODUCTION
An agriculture sector in India, today provides livelihood to about 70 percent of labour
force, contributes nearly 35 percent of net national product and accounts for sizeable share
of total value of country’s export /1/. But since more than 70 percent of the cultivated
land in the country is nonirrigated, the Indian farmers continue to depend on the monsoon
rainfall which gives nearly 70 percent of the annual rainfall during the four months (June—
September) of the season assuring enough supply of moisture for the kharif crops (rainfed
summer crops). Irregularities in the commencements of rainfall (onset of monsoon), it’s
cessation, duration, distribution and intensity over any region results in the variation
in the crop yields. In many parts of India, after a long dry period of hot summer (April—
May) a few spells of pre—monsoon thundershowers supply first moisture to the soil.There—
after with the onset of the monsoon the region receives 4 to 5 days of sustained rainfall
supplying enough moisture for the sowing operations of most of the kharif crops /2/.
Depending upon the kind of crop, soil type, terrain features and occurrence of first spell
of rainfall which could built up enough moisture in the soil, Raman /3/ has determined the
normal dates for commencement of sowing rains in the district scales for Maharashtra state.
The field experiments conducted by Singh et. al. at Ranchi /4/ and by Joseph at Kerala /5/
has respectively observed that timely sowing of rice during the onset of monsoon has
recorded a good growth of crop with high grain yield and delayed transplanting of rice due
to late arrival of monsoon rains resulted into low yield of the grain. Prior knowledge of
the date of commencement of monsoon rains would thus guide the farmers in planning the
sowing operations.
For good yield of crops, critical conditions of weather such as rainfall, cloudiness or
sunshine are essential at various stages of crop growth. Heavy showers just after sowing
or germination may compact the soil after drying or wash away the seeds, kill seedlings
by water logging or lessen the fertility producing poor yield. Groundnut, a major kharif
crop in Gujarat with life cycle of 110 to 140 days grows on warm and moderately moist
climate, requiring abundant sunshine and moderate rainfall. The critical period of moisture
requirement for the crop is at the initial stages of sowing and germination but at the time
of maturity or flowering prolonged rain or cloudy weather may result in poor yield /6/.
This paper attempts to study the yield of Groundnut and its relation with the time of onset
of monsoon and its further development during the season over Gujarat based on satellite
derived data such as Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) or cloud imageries during monsoon
season with the yield of groundnut in the state of Gujarat.
DATA AND METHODOLOGY
The onset date for well distributed stations over the country have been analysed for the
period of 33 years (1960—1992). The yield of groundnut during the monsoon seasons of 1965
through 1987 has been calculated from the data published by Government of India /7,8/. The
JASR 13:5—S

(5)273
(5)274 V. R. Mujumdar et al.

e 70° 75E
25 N ~ ~‘~t JUN 25’N

DSA

AHM
S

VVL
20’ DMN 20’

BMB

I I I I I
70 75°E

Fig. 1. Normal onset dates of summer monsoon over Gujarat

daily OLR data at 2.5~ latitude/longitude intersections from NOAA Polar orbiting satellite
obtained for period 1974 — 1986 from the Climate Analysis Centre, USA were averaged for
the latitudes 2O~ to 25~N and longitudes 7O~ to 75~E to analyse the various spells of
rainfall, cloudiness or bright sunshine over Gujarat. In 1987 in absence of OLR data the
percentage of cloud cover over Gujarat region was estimated by visually inspecting the
cloud imageries received from INSAT—1B. It was then plotted and analysed to determine
epochs of dry and wet periods during monsoon over Gujarat.
DISCUSSION AND RESULTS
Onset and The Yield of Groundnut
Normally the onset of monsoon over Kerala, the Southern tip of India occurs on 1 June,
which further advances northward across the southern peninsula and covers the entire
country by 15 July /2/. The rainy season commences at the Southern end of Gujarat near
Dahanu (2O’N, 72’E) just after 10 June and passing over Ahmedabad (23.2°N, 72.5~E) on June
14 it reaches Deesa (24.2’N, 72.5~E) near northern boundary of Gujarat bringing nearly
80% of the state under the influence of monsoon on June 21 and covers the entire state
by 1 July (Figure 1). The analysis of the standard deviation of date of onsets over Indian
stations show maximum year to year variation over Gujarat region of 9 to 10 days
compared to 7 to 8 days over rest of the country. The withdrawal of the monsoon season
starts from northwestern parts of India from September 1 onwards, and hence a delay in
the onset of monsoon over Gujarat (by more than 2 weeks) does affect the total duration
and the amount of seasonal rainfall significantly leading to poor yield of crops /9/.
For the years 1965 to 1987 the maps of northern limits of monsoon which gives the day to
day position of advance of monsoon over various parts of the country during the onset
phases were used to determine the onset dates for the Gujarat state during the various
years. We define onset date for the state when more than 70% of the state has been covered
by the monsoon rain. Thus 20 June is the date by which monsoon normally covers around 70
percent of the entire state. The correlation between the yield of groundnut in Gujarat
and the onset date over the state for the year has shown the inverse relationship
(correlation coefficient —0.55, significant at 1% level) signifying that the delay in
onset of monsoon adversely affects the yield of groundnut in the state (Figure 2).
Intra—seasonal Variations in OLR and Yield of Groundnut
The time series analysis of average OLR values over Gujarat has been used to study the
day to day variations in weather conditions over Gujarat. Followir~Kripalani et. al. /10/
a day is considered to be a rainy day when OLR value is 220 W/m or less. Table 1 gives
the onset dates, percentage departures of seasonal rainfall from normal, the number of
rain spells during the season and the yield of groundnut for Gujarat in Kg/hectare produced
during the typical years of 1975, 1979, 1980, 1982 and 1987.
In 1975 a bumper yield of groundnut reaching upto 1240 kg/hectare was obtained in Gujarat.
Figure 3a shows that along with normal onset of monsoon around 20 June with a good spell
of rainfall as seen from low OLR values has probably built up enough moisture in soil
during the germinating stage of the crop. Subsequently four well distributed alternate
spells of rainfall and sunshine appears to properly match the requirements of various
stages of crop growth probably resulting into a bumper yield. Though 1979 was a drought
year for India as a whole, three good spells of rainfall after little delayed onset, with
Intermittant breaks has given fairly better yield (Figure 3b). The fluctuations in OLR
 Satellite Data Application (5)275

UAY3
65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 61 83 85 87
________ YEARS
ONSET OVER GUJARAT YICLD OF GROUND NUT

Fig. 2. Time series of the onset of monsoon and yield of groundnut over Gujarat
during 1965 through 1987

values in monsoon season of 1980 over Gujarat shows only two dominant periods of rainfall
and cloudiness (figure 3c). Thus irrespective of timely onset (22 June) and above normal
seasonal rainfall the yield of groundnut was slightly below average (—6 Kg/hectare). In
1982 the onset was delayed by two weeks (July 12) and the total seasonal rainfall was
2very
much below average (—36% of Normal). A prolonged period of OLR values less than 240 Wm was
observed during monsoon 1982 (Figure Jd)indicating a long spell of cloudiness or rainfall
which is rather unfavourable for the growth and yield of crop. All these conditions resulted
into a poor yield of 524 Kg/hectare only.

In 1987 the monsoon was delayed by over 3 weeks (14 July) and percentage departure of
seasonal rainfall from normal was —69 percent. The analysis of percentage coverage of cloud
over Gujarat during the season has shown that a very short spell of rains at the time of
onset (14 July) and a prolonged period of sunshine (as revealed almost cloud free sky)
immediately after the onset could not built up adequate moisture to sustain the crop in
its developing stages after germination. Revival of rain at the end of July with a short
spell of three days and again at the end of August with a prolonged period of sunshine in
between could not enhance the yield, resulting into shortfall of product by about 88 percent
from the normal.

TABLE 1 The Onset Date and Percentage Departure of Seasonal Rainfall

From Normal (*) and Yield of Groundnut Crop over Gujarat

Year Onset Date Percentage Depar. Spell of Sustained Yield of Groundnut

Rainfall Rainfall (**) Kg/hectare

1975 20 June 11.5 4 1240 (75%)

1979 25 June 23.5 3 846 (20%)
1980 22 June 6.5 2 699 (—1%)
1982 12 July —36.5 1 524 (—25%)
1987 14 July —69.5 4 86 (—88%)
(of short duration)

* Figures in ( ) indicate percentage departure from normal

** Normal yield 705 kg/hectare (using long term data)

CONCLUSION
Since over 70 percent of the total cultivated lands in the country depend on rainfall for
agricultural production, commencement of monsoon rains and its variability are crucial for
initial sowing operations for principal summer rainfed crops. Onset dates over most of the
parts of India play prominent role in deciding the final yield of the crops by assuring
the first sustained spell of rainfall that percolates into the soil upto a reasonable depth
and also builts up a moisture profile therein after the evaporative loss. A strong linkage
between onset dates of monsoon over Gujarat and yield of groundnut, which is a prime
agriculture product of the state is found by analysing 23 years of onset and yield data.
The late onset is observed to be adversely affecting the final yield of Groundnut. It is
observed that for the best yield of Groundnut it is necessary that the proper rhythm of
(5)276 V. R. Mujumdar et aL

:±isjL;V:I\vr~
W ISO ____________________________________________ 60
~32U ~ 320
~ Cc) 980 Cd) 982

~ ~T-::Ti”~
1 -:
0
JuNE
20 30 0
JULY
20 30 9
LUG
IS 29 5 5 25
I I
0
.~UN6
20 30 0 20 30 9
LUG
IS 21
-5 II 25

Fig.3. Mean OLR values over Gujarat (2O~—25°N

and 7O~—75~E)during June to
September for the years a) 1975 b) 1979 c) 1980 and d) 1982
various spells of weather patterns in the season, be tuned with the typical weather
conditions required at various growth stages of the crop. Satellite data (OLR) is found
to be very much useful in monitoring year to year variability in the daily patterns
of weather sequences.

The study shows that the various epochs of sunshine, cloudiness or rainfall during monsoon
over different parts of India can be monitored by analysing satellite derived data and the
information when matched with the requirements at various growth stages of a certain crop
it is possible to estimate the final yield which may be of vital importance to the farmers
and planners. A further study of long term satellite data over various parts of the country
may also provide a guideline as to which crop will give a better yield in a particular
region.

REFERENCES
1. INDIA, A Reference Annual, Ministry of I & B, Govt. of India (1988—89)
2. India Meteorological Department, Climatological Atlas for Airmen in India (1943)

3. C.R.V. Raman, Scientific Report No. 216, India Meteorological Dept. (1974)

4. R.S. Singh, D.C. Ghosh and V.C. Srivastava; Indian Journal of Agronomi,
36(2) 159—164, (June 1991)
5. Kamalan Joseph, Indian Journal of Agronomi, 36(1) 83—86 (March 1991)
6. J.R. Kakade, Agricultural Climatology, New Delhi Metropolitan (1985)

7. Area Production of Principal Crops in India Directorate Economics and Statistics;

Department of Agriculture and Co—operation; Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India
(1984—85)

8. India Data Base, The Economy Annual Time Series Data Vol. II

9. V.R. Mujumdar, V.R. Deshpande, P.V. Puranik, V.V. Bhide and D.K. Paul
Book by M/s Tata Mc Graw Hill on ‘TROPMET—92 in press
10. R.H. Kripalani, S.V. Singh and P.A. Arkin, Beitr. Phys. Atmosphere 159—168 (August
1991).