THREATS TO JAPAN

Politics in Japan reflect the uneasiness this nation feels in the Global
environment. What held true for decades is no longer valid, and we are
challenged with taking the next step while we are still not sure where to go to.

Japan is today confronted by a Russian Federation that is asserting its Pacific

condition. The islands are also witnessing the rise of the Dragon across the sea;
the old nightmare is back on-stage. Even closer, a nuclear wildcard State has
appeared within striking distance.

Yet, Russia’s role in the Pacific – except for its territorial disputes – is bound to
do more good than harm. Its interests remain, historically, in the West. All
Russia seeks in the Far East is a market for its commodities and to provide for
the conditions allowing that the vast expanses of Siberia and its resources
remain in its hands.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is quite another matter. It cannot afford
to maintain the current status quo. President Hu’s plans envision a China that
roughly follows the path traversed by Japan decades ago. Should the PRC
achieve the same feats and be able to learn from Japanese mistakes, both
economies would be in a collision course. But that’s decades ahead. For the
time being, China and Japan share many common interests: free access to
energy, resources and markets,...

Not much can be done at the time about the DPRK without inflicting a huge
damage to the region as a whole. Cooperation with the rest of the Nations in the
region seems to be the best safeguard against the unforeseeable attitude of the
Kim family.

Somewhat further, relations with India have proven profitable for both sides and
threats are unlikely to come from any other Nation State in the continent.

The war Japan is losing these days is not fought at sea or in the air on the
islands to the North or South; much less in Afghanistan or Djibouti, where she is
involved. “It’s the economy, stupid!” again, as during Bill Clinton’s campaign.

Caught in a “sandwich” between a weak Dollar and a Renminbi which closely

mimics its trans-Pacific counterpart, Japan is not only paying for US bases but
also for US mistakes. It is “The cicada and the ant” all over again.

The game has changed and we no longer have the right tools to play it. Either
we change the tools or the rules; every additional minute we take to do it makes
recovery more difficult and painful. Japan needs to make up its mind as to
where its natural alliances are. It has the potential to be one of Asia’s leaders in
this new Era of competition/cooperation.