Recent Developments in the 

Recent Developments in the

South China Sea

Professor Carl Thayer
School of Humanities & Social Sciences
School of Humanities & Social Sciences
Australian Defence Force Academy
 Outline of Presentation
Outline of Presentation
1 China‐US
1. China‐US Relations and Regional 
Relations and Regional
Implications
2. ASEAN and the South China Sea
3. China
China‐Vietnam
Vietnam Interaction in the South 
Interaction in the South
China Sea
4 Status of the Declaration on Conduct 
4. St t f th D l ti C d t
of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC)
 1 China‐US
1. China US Relations 
Relations
1. Core
1 Core national interest
national interest
2. PLAN Maritime Exercises
3. US Military Reponses to Chinese 
Assertiveness
4. Shangri‐la Dialogue
5. Meeting of Defence Ministers (October)
 Core National Interest
Core National Interest
• “When
When the Chinese first told us at a 
the Chinese first told us at a
meeting [in China] of the Strategic and 
E
Economic Dialogue that they view the 
i Di l th t th i th
South China Sea as a core interest, I 
immediately responded and said ‘We 
don’t agree with that’.”
g
– Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, quoted in 
The Australian, November 9, 2010
The Australian, November 9, 2010
 PLAN Naval Exercises
PLAN Naval Exercises
1 Early
1. Early April 
April – 16 warships from North, 
16 warships from North
East and South Sea Fleets
2 Early July ‐
2. Early July 10 warships from East Sea 
10 warships from East Sea
Fleet in response to US‐ROK exercise
3. Late July –
l largest of its kind, most 
l f k d
modern ships, senior commanders
4. Early November – 100 platforms + 
marines
 USS Michigan
USS Michigan

USS Ohio

USS Florida

Three Nuclear Submarines Surface in July 
2010 Pusan, South Korea; Subic Bay, 
2010 – Pusan South Korea; Subic Bay
Philippines and Diego Garcia, Indian Ocean
US‐China Defence Ministers
2. ASEAN and the South China Sea
2. ASEAN and the South China Sea

1. 43rd ASEAN Ministerial Meeting
2. 17th ASEAN Regional Forum
3
3. 2nd US
US‐ASEAN
ASEAN Leaders Meeting
Leaders Meeting
4. ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus
 3. China‐Vietnam
3. China Vietnam Interaction 
Interaction

1. China’s seizure of Vietnamese fishing 
boats
2. Vietnamese responses
3. China’s Unilateral Fishing Ban
4. Paracel Islands
 4. Status of the DOC
4. Status of the DOC
• ASEAN‐China
ASEAN China Joint Working Group to 
Joint Working Group to
Implement the DOC
April 16th meeting in Hanoi
– April 16 meeting in Hanoi
– Comments by ASEAN Secretary General Surin
Pitsuwan
– Evaluations of progress
• Barry Wain
Barry Wain
• Liu Jianchao, China’s Ambassador to the Philippines
• Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State
 Conclusion 
Positive Developments
l

• Grounds for cautious optimism on DOC
• China has ceased pressure on 
China has ceased pressure on
international oil and gas companies
• US downplays another ‘USNS Impeccable 
incident’
• Upturn in China‐US relations
 Conclusion 
Negative Developments
l

• China increasing capacity to enforce 
sovereignty claims
i t l i
• Yulin Naval Base construction
• Continued lack of China’s defence
transparency
p y
• Anxiety about decline of US primacy
 Conclusion 
Negative Developments
l

• Great power rivalry – China’s fear 
encirclement
• Chinese warnings to Vietnam
• Regional defence ‘self‐help’ measures 
and military modernisation
y
 Recent Developments in the 
R tD l t i th
South China Sea

Professor Carl Thayer
Presentation to the 2nd International Workshop on 
Presentation to the 2 International Workshop on
The South China Sea, co‐sponsord by the Diplomatic 
Academy of Vietnam and the Vietnam Lawyers’ 
Academy of Vietnam and the Vietnam Lawyers
Association, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, November 
10‐12 2010
10‐12, 2010,