“Trust in the LORD with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all

your ways acknowledge Him, and He will make your paths straight”.

ACK NOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to thank the Almighty GOD for the Graces He continues to pour unto me and
in answering of my prayers.

Special thanks to my Faculty Guide, Prof. Loveraj Takru, Dean IBS, Dehradun for guiding
me throughout the whole research project and believing in me.

I would also like to thank my friends Mr. M.G. Memon, Mr. Mustafa Hasan, Mr. Anand
Ramakrishnan, Mr. Abdul Ali Khan, Mr. Ankit Jain, & Mr. Prabhakaran Deo for being
patient with me and giving me all the encouragement and support to complete this project.

Special thanks to the entire faculty members and the batch of 2010 of ICFAI Bus iness
School for their continued support and guidance throughout the whole project. May the
Almighty GOD bless you all for being kind to me!

1
 DECLARATION

This is to certify that the MRP work entitled “To compare performance of Reliance

infrastructure mutual fund with Nifty and to see the effect of macro and micro environmental

changes on NAV of the fund” is an original work done by the undersigned and has not been

submitted earlier to I.B.S. or any other institution, for fulfillment of the requirement of any

course of study.

Submitted by: Vijay Chand

08BSDDU0184

2
 CERTIF ICATE OF APPROVAL

Recommended that the project entitled “To compare performance of Reliance

infrastructure mutual fund with Nifty and to see the effect of macro and micro
environmental changes on NAV of the fund” is prepared by Mr. Vijay Chand, enrollment
no. 08BSDDU0184, under my supervision and guidance, is accepted as fulfilling, this part of
the requirement for the Management Research Project, as a fulfillment of MBA program.

To best of my knowledge, the content of this report did not form a basis of any
previous report by anyone else. This is a complete bona-fide work.

Mr. Vijay Chand is fit and proper for the award of successful completion of
Management Research Project.

Prof. Loveraj Takru

Dean, ICFAI Business School
Dehradun

3
 TABLE OF CONTENT

S.No Particulars

1. Introduction

1.1 Objective, Scope and Limitations 6

1.2 Sources and Methods 7

2. Review of Literature 8

3. Research Methodology
3.1 Introduction 10

3.2 Research Design 10

3.3 Collection of data 10

3.4 Data Analysis 11

4. Data Analysis and Findings

4.1 Comparison of fund‟s performance with nifty‟s performance 12

4.2 Relationship between fund‟s return and nifty‟s return 13

4.3 Relationship between fund‟s NAV and nifty‟s value 14

4.4 Relationship between fund‟s NAV and nifty‟s value 15

5. Conclusion and recommendations

5.1 Comparison of fund‟s performance with nifty‟s performance 35

5.2 Relationship between fund‟s return and nifty‟s return 35

5.3 Relationship between fund‟s NAV and nifty‟s value 35

6. References 36

7. Appendix 37

4
 ABSTRACT

After the formation of a strong UPA government the budget proposals signal a huge
boost to infrastructure spending with the steel and cement sectors looking forward to new
business opportunities. In the case of steel, public private partnerships (PPPs) and
government spending could stimulate the sector out of a demand slowdown. Cement is
banking on the higher infrastructure spend that was announced. Proposed investments in new
roads, highways and ports will bolster demand for steel. This budget has emphasized
infrastructure building through substantially higher allocation to Jawaharlal Nehru National
Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), Bharat Nirmaan, national highways, railways and
housing for paramilitary forces apart from an initiative for funding PPP (Public Private
Partnership) projects through IIFCL (India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited) and
banks.
A 23% hike in allocation to the development of highways and a Rs 5000 crore
increase in budgetary support to Railways augurs well for the industry. Meanwhile the
cement industry too is looking to benefit on the on the back of government‟s focus on the
infrastructure and housing sectors. Finance minister, in his budget speech highlighted the
government‟s aim to increase the infrastructure investment to 9% of the GDP by 2014.
 Allocation to Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) up by 87%
to Rs 12887 crore.
 Allocation for Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme (APDRP) surged
by 160% to Rs 2080 crore.
 Allocation for National Highways Authority of India has been raised by 23%.
 Budgetary support for rural roads up by 59% to Rs 12000 crore.
 Allocation for Brihan Mumbai Stormwater Drainage Project raised to Rs 500 crore from
Rs 300 crore earlier.

This project basically aims at analyzing the performance of Reliance Infrastructure

Mutual fund, given that the government is planning to give a huge boost to infrastructure
sector through above mentioned measures. Another important purpose of this study is to see
the effect of micro and macro environmental factors on fund‟s performance.
Reliance Infrastructure Fund is an open-ended Equity fund with the primary investment
objective of generating long-term capital appreciation will invest significantly in equity and
equity-related instruments of companies engaged in infrastructure and infrastructure-related
sectors such as transport, banks and financial institutions, energy, power and oil, metals and
minerals, telecom and urban infrastructure amongst others.

5
 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. OBJECTIVE, SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS

Objective of the Project: Project basically incorporates the following objectives:

 The main objective of the project is to compare the performance of Reliance

Infrastructure Mutual Fund with Nifty. Comparison is done in order to see the effect
of government‟s infrastructure friendly policies on an infrastructure portfolio i.e.
Reliance Infrastructure Fund.

 Fluctuations in Nifty index and NAV of the fund are basically caused by micro and
macro environmental forces. This study also aims at observing the effects of these
forces on NAV of the fund.

Scope of the Report: This study gives a good idea about performance of Reliance
Infrastructure mutual fund. Investors can see the comparative performance of fund with index
Nifty and analyze the returns given by Index and fund.

Limitations of the Study: Since this project is a secondary data study, research may include
the following limitations.

i. Secondary data might be irrelevant because of the changes in competitive situation,

changing trends and other variables in the research environment from the time the
data was initially collected. May be our fund gives better returns than the index but if
it cannot beat inflation we cannot judge its performance.

ii. Secondary data can be subject to doubt because of the errors that can occur in any of
the steps or due to personal bias. It is possible that the secondary source of data might
have been custom made to avoid some specific realities and as such fail to mention
the sources of error.

iii. Secondary data might be available but they might not posses all the required data
useful for the current research at hand.

The duration of this project is around 9 months; most of the investors invest in mutual
funds for a longer period of time. This study may not give the true and fair view of the fund‟s
performance in the long run.

6
 1.2. SOURCES AND METHODS
This project basically is a secondary data study in which we are comparing the returns of
our fund with the returns of benchmark index Nifty. Comparison will be made with the help
of ANOVA statistics.

Null Hypothesis:
H0 : µi = µf i.e. return from the index and fund is not significantly different.

Alternate Hypothesis:
H1 : µi ≠ µf i.e. return from the index and fund is significantly different.

Level of significance α = 0.05

7
 2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
One of the most popular ways of measuring management‟s performance is by comparing
the yields of the managed portfolio with the market or with a random portfolio. The two
yields calculated are then compared. The portfolio with the highest one year holding period
yield is by this criterion deemed the better portfolio. (Donald E. Fisher & Ronald J. Jordan,
2006)

Fund‟s returns can be calculated in various situations. One should compare the scheme‟s
returns with the performance of the market. Mutual funds ultimately invest in the financial
market. Therefore, returns in schemes need to be viewed in the context of how the market has
performed. Such a comparative view on returns is called relative returns. The comparison
could be with respect to the benchmark ind ices, and similar competing schemes. (Sundar
sankarn, 2003)

We must take relative comparisons in performance measurement, and an important

related issue the benchmark to be used in evaluating the performance of a portfolio. It is
critical in evaluating portfolio performance to compare the returns obtained on the portfolio
being evaluated with the returns that could have been obtained from a comparable alternative.
The measurement process must involve relevant and obtainable alternatives; that is the
benchmark portfolio must be a legitimate alternative that accurately reflects the objectives of
the portfolio being evaluated. (Charles P. Jones, 2004)

The essential idea behind performance evaluation is to compare the returns obtained by
the investment manager through active management with the returns that could have been
obtained for the client if one or more appropriate alternative portfolios had been chosen for
the investment. The reason for this comparison is straightforward; performance should be
evaluated on a relative basis not on an absolute basis. Comparison portfolios are often
referred to as benchmark portfolios. In selecting them, the client should be certain that they
are relevant, feasible, and known in advance, meaning that they should represent in alternate
portfolios that could have been chosen for investment instead of the portfolio being
evaluated. That is the benchmark should reflect the objectives of the client. Return is a key
aspect of performance, of course, but some way must be to account for portfolios exposure to
risk. The choice of benchmark portfolios may be restricted to portfolio perceived to have
similar level of risk, thereby permitting a direct comparison of returns. (William F. Sharpe,
Gordon j. Alexander, Jeffery V. Bailey, 2006)

Managers also encounter situations in which it is useful to test for the equality of more
than two population means. The analysis of variance enables us to test whether more than
two population means can be considered equal. Using analysis of variance (ANOVA) we will
be able to make inferences about whether our samples are drawn from populations having the
same mean. In order to use analysis of variance, we must assume that each of the samples is
drawn from a normal population and that each of these populations has the same variance.
However if the sample size are large enough, we do not need the assumption of normality.
Analysis of variance is based on a comparison of two different estimates of the variance of

8
our overall population. The variance among the sample means and the variance within the
sample means. The focus of analysis of variance is to test whether samples have been drawn
from populations having the same mean. Analysis of variance compares two estimates of the
population variance. One estimate comes from the variance among the sample means, the
other form the variance within samples themselves. If they are approximately equal, the
chances are high that the samples came from the same population. (Levin Richerd I. A&
Rubin David S, 2008.)

Regression and correlation analysis are based on the relationship, or association,

between two variables. It shows us how to determine both the nature and the strength of a
relationship between two variables. The known variable is called independent variable and
the variable we are trying to predict is the dependent variable. In regression we can have only
one dependent variable in our estimating equation. However, we can use more than one
independent variable. Often when we add independent variables, we improve the accuracy of
our prediction. We often find a causal relationship between variables: that is, the independent
variable causes the dependent variable to change. We expect the sales of a company to
increase as the advertising budget increases. Such illustrations of direct associations between
independent and dependent variables show direct relationship between the variables. We can
graph such a direct relationship, plotting the independent variable on the X axis and the
dependent variable on the Y axis. The slope of the plotted line is said to be positive because
Y increases as X increases. Relationships can also be inverse rather than direct. In these
cases, the dependent variable decreases as the independent variable increases. This type of
relationship is characterized by a negative slope of the plotted line between independent and
dependent variables. (Levin Richerd I. A& Rubin David S, 2008.)

9
 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. INTRODUCTION

The present chapter describes the research methodology which was applied for conducting
this research. The various aspects of the research methodology were described into the
various specified sections which are; design of the research, data collection.

3.2. RESEARCH DESIGN

Research methodology details the procedures necessary for obtaining the information needed
to structure and/or solve research problems. Although a broad approach to the problem had
already been developed, the research design specified the details „the nuts and bolts‟ of
implementing that approach.

The design of research was determined by the nature of the problem that has to be explored
and the research question that is formulated. The statement regarding the nature of the
problem identified concepts that had to be explored and that would have influenced the data
collection methods, the subsequent data analysis and reporting.

According to the philosophy of research design, research can be exploratory or conclusive.

Exploratory research- The primary objective of exploratory research was to provide insights into, and
an understanding of, the problem. Exploratory research is used in cases when one must define the
problem more precisely, identify relevant courses of action, or gain additional insights before an
approach can be developed.

Conclusive research- Conclusive research is typically more formal and structured than exploratory
research. It is based on large, representative samples, and the data obtained are subjected to
quantitative analysis. The findings from this research are considered to be conclusive in nature in that
they are used as input into managerial decision-making (Malhotra, 2004).

So far as the present research was concerned, the research was conclusive in nature as it had been
based on large, representative samples, and the data obtained are subjected to quantitative analysis.

3.3. COLLECTION OF DATA

The two most common data that are collected for exploratory research are primary and
secondary data. Primary data is original data using an accepted research methodology and
secondary data is already available data as it is collected for other research purposes. In
research projects where original primary data is collected, secondary data establish what
work has been undertaken in a particular area before is a necessary precursor to research
design. In accordance with the above academic establishments, the present re search included
only secondary data.

10
 3.3.1. Secondary Data

Secondary data is the data that has been gathered pre viously for a project other than the
particular one. The most important advantage of secondary data is that it can be collected
from various sources rather quickly and cheaply than the primary data. However, the most
significant limitation of secondary sources lies in the fact that someone else collected the data
for his/her own purposes. Therefore, as the information may meet specific needs, definitions
or units of measure may be different and may not be appropriate for evaluation in another
project. Moreover, it is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of any information provided because
little is known about the research design used or any other condition under which the research
took place. Finally, it is doubtful that data collected long time ago would be relevant
presently.

Despite all these reasons, secondary data may be useful as a reference base to compare
research findings. Thus, even for a relatively unique research situation scanning the
secondary data would possibly offer much useful insight. In order to collect secondary data,
various libraries, and websites (online library) were visited.

The main purpose of critically reviewing the literature was to explore the data and findings
and subsequently related them to the existing literature on the subject matter concerned.

3.4. DATA ANALYSIS

Data was analyzed systematically. Findings from data were related to aspects of the
methodology wherever appropriate, and effects arising from the choice of methods were
recognized and commented upon. Keeping in mind of these norms, the collected data was
analyzed in accordance with the objectives of the research. Anova and simple regression tools
are used to analyse the data.

11
 4. DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

4.1. COMPARISON OF FUND’S PERFORMANCE WITH NIFTY’S

PERFORMANCE

This pilot study is done on the data collected during 20 th July 2009 to 18th February
2009. Second column (Appendix 1) shows the closing NAV of the fund on a particular date.
Third column (Appendix 1) is the closing value of Nifty index on a particular date. ROF
means return on fund and ROI means return on index.

Null Hypothesis:
H0 : µi = µf i.e. return from the index and fund is not significantly different.

Alternate Hypothesis:
H1 : µi ≠ µf i.e. return from the index and fund is significantly different.

Level of significance α = 0.05

Anova: Single
Factor

SUMMARY
Groups Count Sum Average Variance
Column 1 142.000 9.428 0.066 1.716
Column 2 142.000 8.591 0.060 1.091

ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between Groups 0.002 1.000 0.002 0.002 0.967 3.875
Within Groups 395.719 282.000 1.403

Total 395.722 283.000

ANOVA statistics using MS Excel showed that p value is more than α and F
calculated is less than F critical, hence null hypothesis is accepted. It means return from the
index and fund is not significantly different. Since the returns are not significantly different, it
is a possibility that fund‟s returns are dependent on returns of the index. To check this
dependency a linear regression can also be done.

12
4.2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FUND’S RETURN AND NIFTY’S
RETURN
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.923
R Square 0.852
Adjusted R Square 0.851
Standard Error 0.506
Observations 142.000

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1.000 206.111 206.111 806.394 0.000
Residual 140.000 35.784 0.256
Total 141.000 241.895

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -0.004 0.042 -0.086 0.932 -0.088 0.080 -0.088 0.080
X Variable 1 1.158 0.041 28.397 0.000 1.077 1.238 1.077 1.238

Linear regression using MS Excel shows that adjusted R square is 0.851, which shows that
85.1% variance in fund‟s return can be explained by nifty‟s return.

Since Intercept = -0.004 and X variable 1 is 1.158, regression equation can be written as

ROF = -0.004 + 1.158* ROI

13
4.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FUND’S NAV AND NIFTY’S VALUE
A linear relationship can also be developed between absolute values of Index and fund‟s
NAV.
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.974
R Square 0.948
Adjusted R Square 0.947
Standard Error 0.106
Observations 143.000

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1.000 28.501 28.501 2557.791 0.000
Residual 141.000 1.571 0.011
Total 142.000 30.072

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1.583 0.184 8.621 0.000 1.220 1.946 1.220 1.946
X Variable 1 0.002 0.000 50.575 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002

Linear regression using MS- Excel shows that adjusted R square is 0.947, it shows that 94.7%
variance in NAV can be explained by Nifty value.

Since intercept = 1.583 and X variable 1 = 0.002, regression can be written as

NAV = 1.583+ 0.002* Nifty

14
4.4. EFFECT OF MACRO AND MICRO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
ON NAV OF THE FUND

Performance of Fund
12
11.5
11
10.5
10 NAV
9.5
9

Performance of Market
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000 Nifty
1000
0

4.4.1. Macro Environmental Factors (July 2009 to September 2009)

As expected at the end of 1QFY2010, the sprint witnessed by then Indian stock
market turned into a much slower, but longer lasting version of the race, the marathon, as the
Sensex gained another 18% during the September quarter. Continued strong domestic
momentum, attributable in part to the stimulus packages announced by the government and
on account of the strong domestic fundamentals of the Indian economy, apart from increasing
global economic stability and strong liquidity, helped the Indian stock markets build on their
1QFY2010 gains. However, the Sensex returns have lagged many of its developed and
developing peers. The latter‟s out-performance was on account of the sharp
underperformance by many of these markets in 1QFY2010 and building up of expectations of
a sooner-than expected recovery in their economies. While the Russian stock market (27%)

15
led the quarterly gainers chart in the September quarter, thanks to the sustained firm global
crude oil prices, the other leading percentage gainers for the quarter included the benchmark
indices of Indonesia (22%), UK (21%) and South Korea (20%). The big underperformer was
however, the Chinese stock market, which lost 6% during 2QFY2010. There have been
various issues that have affected investor sentiments towards the Chinese stock market.
Firstly, launch of a new Nasdaq-style market called the "Growth Enterprise Market (GEM)"
is leading to reallocation of capital by investors to new subscriptions causing a liquidity
squeeze in the main Chinese market. GEM is a stockmarket set-up by the Hong Kong Stock
Exchange for listing of growth companies that do not fulfill the requirements of profitability
or track record. Secondly, a slew of IPOs that are in the pipeline led to liquidity getting
sucked out from the secondary markets. Thirdly, fears that effects of the Chinese
government's stimulus package might have peaked out have also kept investors on the back
foot, as, the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that profits at China's major industrial
companies were down 10.6% yoy during January- August 2009.

FII inflows sustain momentum; MFs take a backseat

The trend of strong FII inflows (Rs31,000cr or US $6.3bn) witnessed during

1QFY2010 gained further strength during the September quarter with FIIs pouring in
Rs35,600cr (US $7.4bn) into Indian equities. With this, total cumulative FII inflows in 2009
crossed the US $10bn mark during September 2009 and stood at about Rs60000 cr (US
$12.4bn) at the end of the month. Notably, close to half of the inflows by FIIs have come via
qualified institutional placements (QIP) and IPOs combined. Nonetheless, after a year of net
outflow (US $12bn) in 2008 – the first such event this decade - FIIs are back again in the
Indian markets in a big way, which is highly comforting. It must be noted that FIIs had
invested about US $17.7bn in 2007. We believe this trend of inflows would broadly sustain
over the long term considering the strong dynamics of the Indian economy. As far as the
Domestic Mutual Funds industry was concerned, at the end of 2QFY2010, their net
investments in the Indian stock markets stood at a paltry Rs177cr (US $33mn) as they
resorted to considerable profit booking in the month of September 2009.

FDI - Investor confidence coming back

While the FII inflows were once again strong during 2QFY2010, continued
resurrection in FDI inflows was also heartening. Thus, from the lows of around US $1bn in
November 2008, the FDI inflows into India have increased gradually and stood at US $3.5bn
in July 2009. With global liquidity at comfortable levels and capital from the developed
world scouting for avenues for optimal growth, money has started to flow into emerging
economies like India. Notably, as per the UNCTAD World Investment Report 2009, while
there would be some slowdown in global inflows in 2009 to US $1.2trillion (US $1.7trillion
in 2008) before recovering marginally in 2010 to US $1.4trillion and to US $1.8trillion in
2011, the BRIC countries would be the most favored recipients of the inflows increasingly
for FDI. This is primarily because of the stronger resilience the developing economies
displayed vis-à-vis their developed counterparts in the face of the global financial crises. In

16
fact, as per the report, India ranks 3rd (China 1st) as the preferred locations for FDI inflows!
Our confidence with respect to continued strong FDI (and also FII) inflows also rests on the
dynamics of the Indian economy, which boasts of favorable demographics, high savings rate,
lower dependence on exports for growth thus portraying a strong domestic consumption
theme, huge market potential across sectors and products in terms of penetration, lower
credit-to-GDP ratio leaving ample scope for leveraging, etc. Thus, going forward, the recent
political stability (UPA victory) and the proven economic stability in face of the global
financial crises will lend immense confidence to global investors, which will help improve
the flow of capital into the country.

Signals mixed on global economic recovery

The world continues to remain divided over the sustainability of any economic
recovery that is currently underway. While the continued high unemployment rates in the
developed world and the consequent impact that it will have on the wages and the spending
of consumers poses a significant threat to the feeble economic recovery signs, the
consequences of the fading away of the effects of stimulus packages also raises questions.
The latter is primarily considering the fact that most governments are already running high
fiscal deficits and there is limited scope for them to maintain the spending momentum for a
longer period of time.

However, contrary to this, the Confidence Indices in the US – both consumer and
business - either continued on their upward trajectory or remained firm with an upward bias,
with the former index back to pre-Lehman crisis levels! Similar trends were witnessed in the
UK confidence indicators as well. This improvement in confidence can be attributed to lesser
deterioration in economic data, stability in the housing market and better liquidity in the
system.

Further, the IMF, in its World Economic Outlook Update (July 2009) has also talked about
'contractionary forces receding but weak recovery ahead'. The update reads, "The global
economy is beginning to pull out of a recession unprecedented in the post-World War II era,
but stabilization is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish. Economic growth
during 2009-10 is now projected to be about ½ percentage points higher than projected in
the April 2009 World Economic Outlook (WEO), reaching 2.5 per cent in 2010. Financial
conditions have improved more than expected, owing mainly to public intervention, and
recent data suggest that the rate of decline in economic activity is moderating, although to
varying degrees among regions."
It also indicates/suggests that, "Despite these positive signs, the global recession is not over,
and the recovery is still expected to be slow, as financial systems remain impaired, support
from public policies will gradually diminish, and households in countries that suffered asset
price busts will rebuild savings. The main policy priority remains restoring financial sector
health. Macroeconomic policies need to stay supportive, while preparing the ground for an
orderly unwinding of extraordinary levels of public intervention. At the same time, given
weak internal demand prospects in a number of current account deficit countries, including

17
the United States, policies need to sustain stronger demand in key surplus countries." We
believe that the signs of economic improvement are only getting stronger in India with the
quarterly GDP having recovered from 5.3% yoy in 3QFY2009 to 5.8% yoy in 4QFY2009
and to a further 6.1% yoy in 1QFY2010. The strength in economic activity can also be judged
from the fact that the Advance Tax paid by India Inc. has witnessed a 15% yoy increase in
2QFY2010 compared to a 4% yoy decline in 1QFY2010. We expect the economy to gain
further strength, notwithstanding the short-term impact of deficient monsoons on GDP, as
low interest rates help kick start another bout of corporate and consumer credit pick-up in the
quarters to come.

Oil - Price movement restricted

Crude behaved on expected lines as the global crude oil prices remained within the
US $60-80 per barrel range. For 2QFY2010, crude oil prices averaged 15% higher on a qoq
basis, nonetheless, ending with gains of a mere 1% on a point-to-point basis to end the
quarter at US $71 per barrel vis-à-vis the US $70 per barrel at the end of June 2009.

While firmness in crude prices can be attributed to the expectations of an upturn in

global economies, this coupled with disciplined supply by the oil producing nations will
ensure a more balanced demand-supply situation going forward. However, in the near-to
medium-term, considering that the possibility to increase supplies remains with excess
capacity present to absorb the growth in demand, we do not expect a substantial increase in
global crude oil prices from current levels.

Metals - The run continues

The bounce in metal prices - both ferrous and non- ferrous, continued during the
quarter on the back of several supporting factors. With global economies displaying signs of
recovery (green shoots) and expectations of a pick-up in demand for commodities also helped
the metal prices remain firm. Further, demand in emerging economies like China and India
has also been quite firm, aiding this recovery. End of the de-stocking period and disciplined
increase in production have been the other factors supporting the revival. The continued
weakness of the US$ against other currencies also helped push up metal prices. The strong up
move in base metal prices was contrary to our expectations as we had expected a much
tighter range for base metals in wake of the pending recovery in demand. However, the
factors mentioned above coupled with the 'expectations of global recovery' helped in the
firming up of the metal prices. Going forward, while heightened volatility cannot be ruled
out, considering that the global economic recovery would continue here onwards, the
possibility of a significant sustained correction in commodities is unlikely.

Inflation - Indian economy breaks out of deflation

Even as many global economies continue to grapple with growth, which is also
having an adverse impact on inflation, which continues to remain low or reflect a deflationary

18
trend, this indicator charted back into positive territory towards early September 2009 for
India. Thus, for the week ended September 19, 2009, the Headline Inflation measured by the
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) came in at 0.83% compared to 0.37% for the previous week
and -0.12% for the week ended August 29, 2009. While this was largely on expected lines, at
the same time, admittedly, the breakout into the inflationary territory came in a little early
than anticipated (late September to early October). Moreover, the Food Articles Index, which
has a 15.4% weightage in the WPI, has witnessed a sharp rise (decade high of 16.3% yoy as
on September 19, 2009) since March 2009 and particularly since August 2009. This can be
attributed to the failure of monsoons over several parts of the country that led to the
drought/drought- like situation jeopardizing plantations by farmers. This has put at risk the
country's food grains production for the fiscal, which is expected to drop by around 15% yoy,
leading to the spurt in prices in major food articles like cereals, pulses, fruits, spices, etc.
Notably, the Reserve Bank of India had earlier in July 2009 forecasted inflation rate of
around 5% by March 2010. However, going by the current rate along with the deficient
monsoon this year (pushing food prices higher), and the expected gradual recovery in
domestic demand, return of some pricing power amongst manufacturers, higher commodity
prices and the disappearance of the high base effect, we believe that the inflation rate may
settle between 6-7% by March 2010 even as we expect the WPI Inflation in FY2010 to
average between 2.5-3%.

As far as the global inflationary pressures are concerned, with many economies still
witnessing a deflationary trend, a section of the market continue to remain wary of the
inflationary pressures that might develop over the next 12-18 months. This is considering the
monetary and fiscal easing measures taken by the global central banks over the past one year,
which in conjunction with the return in consumer demand going forward will lead to
inflation.

We, however, continue to believe that the global economic recovery will be slow and
staggered and the substantial existing capacities will ensure that prices do not rise in a hurry.
Another point that would keep inflation subdued is the high unemployment rate in the
developed economies and the high savings, which will prevent a sharp surge in consumption
and rather allow it to increase only gradually over the next few quarters.

Curre ncy - India in favor; capital inflows to lend support

On the currency front, the Indian Rupee behaved along expected lines as it remained
broadly range bound within the Rs47.5-49/US$ band. Notably, we had stated in our
1QFY2010 Preview, "…over the next few quarters, we believe that the Rupee would remain
largely range bound between the Rs45-50 levels to the USD. We believe a considerable
appreciation of the Rupee against the USD is unlikely considering that India's exchange rate
will be managed…"
At this point in time, we have no reason to believe that the Rupee would trade outside the
Rs45-50/US$ range over the next few quarters. We maintain that India's exchange rate will
be managed to ensure export competitiveness rather than once again allowing volatile, short-

19
term debt and FII inflows to cause the currency to appreciate without fundamental
justification, only to depreciate even more rapidly subsequently - something that can have a
highly destabilizing impact on the real economy. Based on our interpretations of the country's
policy stance, this view is consistent with the evolving stance of our policy-makers.
We also believe that a significant depreciation of the Rupee against the US$ is unlikely,
especially considering the changed (read positive) political outlook in the country with the
UPA's convincing victory lending immense stability. This has raised expectations of
structural reforms in the country, which will put India on a higher growth trajectory. This will
ensure steady flow of capital into the country, thus preventing any significant depreciation of
the Rupee against the US$.

Inte rest rates - Conducive to growth

Globally, Interest rates have continued to rema in low in the post- Lehmann era as
most economies are trying hard to chart back into the territory of some positive growth. This
is despite increasing noises from several quarters of the globe that Central Banks will have to
harden Interest rates soon to prevent runaway inflationary pressures.

The global Central Banks have however, been pretty clear and forthcoming at trying
to put to rest the concerns arising from the possible effects of the tightening in monetary
policy. For instance, a recent Federal Reserve statement read, "…the Fed will continue to
employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent
and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low
levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
Even the OECD, in its release titled, 'What is the economic Outlook for OECD countries? An
interim assessment' states, "Regarding monetary policy, taking the first steps towards
normalisation of policy interest rates from their current exceptionally low levels should in
most cases and on current prospects wait until well into 2010 and in some cases even beyond.
It is also important that central banks communicate their intentions explicitly, if
conditionally, so as to affect interest rates at longer maturities more effectively."
Recently, on the domestic front also, due to the government's large borrowing
programme and corresponding spurt in government bond yields, along with rising WPI
inflation, there have been concerns about rising Interest rates. In our view, broader Interest
rates will rise not in detriment to GDP growth, but consistent with it. At present, cred it
growth has dropped to 14%, there is huge amount of liquidity in the Banking System and it
appears unlikely that the lending and deposit rates will start rising before early FY2011E.
Even the RBI has clearly stated that exit policies will be implemented only when clear signs
of growth momentum emerge. Nor do they wish to tighten monetary policy in response to
supply-side inflation. Even if tightening begins somewhere towards early FY2011, we must
keep in mind that in the last cycle, such tightening did not rein in credit growth for almost
three years, simply because latent demand in India is so huge, which holds true just as much
even today. As regards bond yields, increase in longer maturity yields is a positive sign,
indicating expectations of higher GDP growth. At the short-end, the rise in yields is more

20
than expected, but this is due to short-term technicalities of the government borrowing
programme. The RBI's committed Open Market Operations (OMC) limit not getting fully
used is also not helping matters. But we see these as short-term fluctuations and overall do
not expect a material increase in bond yields hereon, for the next few months. To conclude, in
our view, while Interest rates would consolidate at the current levels for a few quarters, we
believe that the current Interest rate scenario should once again help unleash the huge latent
domestic demand in India going forward.

Monsoon - Plays truant; but limited risk to economy

The worst fears for the sons of the soil (farmers) came true this fiscal with the
monsoons being highly deficient this season. The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the
country, as a whole, stood at 20% below the Long Period Average (LPA) as on September
23, 2009, one of the worst in this decade. Poor monsoons this year are being dreaded to have
a significant impact on India's GDP. However, we believe there are various factors that would
mitigate the impact of poor monsoons on India's GDP. Some of these factors include:
 Low dependence on Agriculture for GDP growth; Manufac turing and Services
contribute to 83% of India's GDP
 Lower dependence on one season (monsoons) for crop production; winter crop also
has an important role to play
 Increasing contribution from Irrigated Land; reduces dependence on monsoons for
cultivation
 Various Government Schemes ie. NREGS and Bharat Nirman, estimated to
collectively spend about Rs85,000cr in FY2010 would supplement rural India's
income
 Low Interest rates and ample liquidity with Banks will ensure resurrection in
consumption demand
Further, our analysis of the past trends and correlation between monsoons and the
performance of various presumably- monsoon dependent sectors (in terms of business and not
stock market performance) indicates that the correlation has not been very strong as is being
feared. More so, the gradual and consistent transition of the Indian economy over the years
from an agrarian economy to one being led by the services and the manufacturing sectors and
emergence of various other sectors and factors influencing consumer decision making, has
ensured that the impact of the monsoons on the Indian economy is reducing. In fact, if we
consider Corporate India's annual Net Sales and Net Profit growth over the last decade, it is
apparent that the impact of poor monsoons on Corporate profitability is not prominent. Thus,
we have arrived at the conclusion that any impact of deficient monsoons on the stock market
is primarily a factor of nervous investor sentiments who prefer to exit/stay on the sidelines
pending concrete evidence of the little impact on India Inc.'s profits. To get better
understanding of the impact of monsoons on
Agricultural GDP and the latter's impact on the Manufacturing and Services sectors and the
Indian economy at large, we carried out a Regression Analysis of the same. This analysis
indicates that the impact of a change in Agricultural GDP is minimal on the other two

21
segments of the economy. Also, the impact on the GDP is largely restricted to that arising on
account of the slowdown in Agricultural GDP, which does get impacted by the monsoons.

Our initial estimates had pegged India's GDP growth at 6-6.5% for FY2010.
However, with the monsoon deficiency being significant, the impact of which will be
inevitable on Agricultural GDP, we believe that though relatively cushioned compared to
earlier years, the impact on India's GDP could still be about 1-1.5%.

Fiscal Deficit - To peak in FY2010; begin a gradual descent

A high Fiscal Deficit, despite the arguments in favour of it in the current scenario, is a
situation that any economy would want to mend sooner than later, as it is not only detrimental
from the country rating point of view by International Rating Agencies, but it could also exert
pressure on domestic Interest rates on account of the high government borrowings. After at
around 8.5% in FY2009, India's Fiscal Deficit is expected to further balloon to around 11% in
FY2010. This can be attributed in part to the lower tax receipts that the government will earn
in FY2010 on account of the overall economic slowdown and the effects of stimulus
measures through reduction in duty rates. Notably, while the country's indirect tax collections
declined by 28% yoy in April-July 2009, direct tax collections registered a meager increase
of 4% yoy during April- August 2009. However, despite the pressure on government finances,
the government is seized of the fact that the stimulus measures need to be sustained in the
near term as the Indian economy has just started to re-gain strength. The government,
however, is keen to revert back to its path of fiscal consolidation as soon as economic
parameters stabilise. In fact, it has set for itself a target of about 1-2.5% reduction in central
fiscal deficit by FY2012. We believe that this is possible as the economy goes into auto
mode, reducing its dependence on stimulus measures which will then gradually be
withdrawn. Tax collections will also improve in- line with the improvement in India's GDP,
which will also aid government finances. Thus, in view of the above, we believe that India's
Fiscal Deficit will peak out in FY2010 and reduce to around 9% in FY2011.

IIP - On path to a reasonably strong recovery

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which is a representative figure to measure

the general level of industrial activity in the economy, points towards a reasonably strong
recovery that is underway for the Indian economy. Further, we expect this momentum to be
largely sustained in the ensuing months and quarters of FY2010, notwithstanding the
temporary hiccup that may arise on account of the lag effects of a deficient monsoon playing
out on the Indian economy. Stability settling in global economies, domestic stimulus
packages and strong domestic demand have been the primary reasons for the swift recovery
that has been witnessed in the domestic economy. After recording a growth of -0.8% yoy in
March 2009, the IIP has been improving ever since. For April-July 2009, the IIP is up by an
average of 4.6% yoy. Going forward, expecting a further uptick in economic activity hereon,
we expect the IIP growth in FY2010 to be in the range of 6.5-7%. Considering the strength of
the domestic fundamentals and assuming the impact of deficient monsoons, we believe that

22
India's GDP growth in FY2010 would now be about 5-5.5% (6.7% in FY2009). However, it
could accelerate to about 7-7.5% in FY2011 with a bias towards the upper range of the band
depending on the government's pro-activeness on the reforms front.

India Inc. Earnings - Slow and steady for now; much better times ahead

Aided in part by the stimulus packages and the low Interest rates, the Indian economy
remained relatively resilient to the global slump. The playing out of the strong domestic
consumption theme ensured that the Indian economy changes into higher gears faster than its
peer economies, which also helped/will help Corporate India recover from the troughs. This
trend will get all the more stronger in the coming quarters as the economy gets into auto-
mode and the low Interest rates help unleash the huge latent domestic demand.

4.4.2. Micro Environmental Factors (July 2009 to September 2009)

Work aplenty, Execution the key

Infrastructure has been at the centre of government attention as it is expected to play a

crucial role in sustaining the country's economic growth in the times to come, and due to the
cascading multiplier effect that it has on the overall economy. Moreover, most pivotal factors
including, Work on hand (Earnings growth), Capital, (Interest costs), Commodity prices
(Operating Margins) and renewed intent by the Central Government are in place. Against this
backdrop, it is the execution capability that would have a major bearing on growth of the
Infra players. We believe that besides individual companies' intrinsic strengths, project mix
(entailing higher Operating Margins and shorter execution periods) would also go a long way
in determining their growth trajectory. Overall, companies with a judicious project mix would
continue to be preferred over others in the fray.

Roads gaining momentum

In Infrastructure, the Roads Segment is one of the vital links of overall development.
For instance, to expedite and develop power infrastructure (India is a power deficit country
with an average power deficit of 10.9%), an adequate underlying transportation infrastructure
is a necessity. Thus, we maintain that in the overall scheme of things, 'Roads' would be action
field. This more than reflects the ambitious target set by the Minister for Roads, Transport
and Highways (MoRTH), Kamal Nath of constructing 20km a day!! Till-date, of the planned
54,500km of National Highways to be developed under the NHDP, around 11,746km roads
have been completed, 5,782km are at construction stage and road contracts to the extent of
36,972km are expected to be awarded over the next three- four years.

Nonetheless, we believe that the target of building 20km/day is ambitious considering

NHAI's past track record. But, the Ministry/NHAI has proposed/ushered a number of changes
at different levels to achieve the set target. For instance, the Model Concession Agreement
(MCA) has been amended in terms of structure, procedural issues and technical criteria.
Issues concerning land acquisition, which have been a major road block, are also now being

23
taken up. This is because, land acquisition issues have resulted in project cost overruns with
NHAI having to compensate the developers for idle machinery, interest costs, etc. Hence,
NHAI is in the process of setting up 150 land acquisition wings at the State- level and special
arbitration cells to minimize inordinate delays due to land acquisition problems. Further, to
expedite the road construction process, NHAI has decided to award the Letter of Award
(LoA) only after it is in possession of 80% (as against 50% earlier) of the land required for
the project. All these developments highlight the serious intent of MoRTH in expediting
highway development.

QIPs - The flavour of the day

In the capital- intensive Infrastructure Sector, execution of projects is dependent on

timely and cheap availability of capital. But, a major part of FY2009 saw Infrastructure
companies grappling with this prime problem of inadequate capital at competitive rates. As a
result, the government has been addressing this problem through measures like hiking the
ECB borrowing limit, reducing Interest rates, allowing bodies like IIFCL to raise money by
issuing bonds to foreign institutions, etc. In perspective, the quantum and timing of fund
raising programs by companies point at their perception of the opportunity in the offing.
Hence, QIPs have become the flavor of the day despite the equity dilution, and are precursors
to the robust growth lying ahead. In 2QFY2010, many Infra players resorted to QIPs to
access capital due to the inherent advantages (to investors) of no lock- in period, minimum
procedural and regulatory hassles and strengthening of Net Worth (thereby improving the
biding capability).

Budget - a Dampener for Infra players

The Union Budget 2009-10 proved to be an overall negative for the Sector as the
positives arising from increasing allocation to the Sector were eclipsed by the amendments
and clarifications made on the Tax front. For instance, the revision in the Minimum Alternate
Tax (MAT) is expected to have a major impact on the players. Most players owning infra
assets had been claiming Section 80IA benefits along with paying 10% MAT. The Budget
has however, increased MAT to 15% and done away the benefits arising from Section 80IA
being availed by companies other than asset owners. However, it should be noted that there
would not be a major impact on our Earnings estimate for FY2010E and FY2011E as we
have not factored in any tax benefits for the companies in our universe. We believe that it
would also not significantly affect the stocks as it would reduce the Book Value by a mere 2-
5%.

Orde r inflows to pick up in 2HFY2010

Order inflows, the lead indicator for infrastructure companies, are no longer a cause
for concern. The Order Book-to-Sales ratio is comfortably ranging between 1.9 - 3.7x, and
near-term plateauing (especially in the Roads Sector) is no longer a concern. In fact, we
expect Order inflows to gain momentum in 2HFY2010 once the economy is back on growth
trajectory, procedural and structural issues are addressed and execution plans get

24
implemented. Post this, we expect a number of projects to be taken up on a priority basis,
especially in the Roads, Irrigation, Power and Urban Infrastructure space.

Benign short-term Interest rates - A possible fillip to Earnings

Our discussion with the Infra players indicates that the Interest rates are on a
downward trend in the short term. We believe that such softening of Interest rates could serve
as a near- term trigger for Earnings upgrade as well as lower the cost of working capital
loans.

Earnings Outlook

With vital components (for infrastructure development) in place, viz. Capital,

Commodity prices, Political will and strong Pipeline, we expect the Order Book/Sales Ratio
to boost Top- line growth of the companies in our universe over the ensuing years. This is
against the background of players vying for increasing proportion of the infrastructure
opportunity pie. Accordingly, we expect the companies under our coverage to post a Top- line
growth of 5-55% for 2QFY2010 on the back of strong Order Book and increased visibility
particularly with the UPA government back in power. Earnings growth would, however, be a
function of project mix.

Market v/s Infrastructure stocks

On the bourses, 2QFY2010 was once again an outstanding quarter for the
Infrastructure Sector with most Infra stocks out-performing the market. This outperformance
could majorly be attributed to re-rating of the Infra Sector in terms of P/E expansion as a
consequence of the UPA government getting re-elected (indicating continuation of stress on
Infra development) and easing liquidity conditions. During 2QFY2010, stocks under our
coverage universe yielded returns ranging between 3-60% as against the market returns of
18.2%.

Outlook- The Way ahead

In light of the pivotal role that the Infrastructure Sector plays in enabling growth
going ahead, we believe that the government will have to continue focusing on infrastructure
development in the country. In fact, the traffic projections on most roads have been in sync
with the economic cycle. Moreover, in the long term, with the economy on a roll (India has
averaged 8-9% growth over the last 4-5 years), we expect the Infrastructure Sector to attract
more and more funds not only from the domestic space, but also from the international arena.
Other factors including the political intent, liquidity position, commodity and crude prices,
structural and procedural reforms at various government body levels (like NHAI) are also
well positioned for the Indian infrastructure growth story to pan out. Over the next few
quarters, we expect healthy Order Backlogs of the companies in our universe to translate into
Earnings growth. We also expect Order Inflows to start gaining momentum in 2HFY2010 as
initiatives by the re-elected UPA government start yielding results. However, owing to the
substantial liquidity inflows that we are currently witnessing, we do not rule out possibility of
moderate monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India in turn resulting in slight
25
hardening of Interest rates. However, this is unlikely to have a material impact on Earnings as
a number of avenues of availing finance at competitive rates are now opened up, especially
for infrastructure companies.

4.4.3. Macro Environmental Factors (October 2009 to December 2009)

Sensex ends 3QFY2010 almost flat qoq The Indian stockmarket indices - the Sensex
and the Nifty - ended 2009 at the year highs even as it was largely a quarter of broad
consolidation. Notably, as expected at the end of 2QFY2010 in our Results Preview Report,
aptly titled, "To pit-stop before another lap…", the Indian stockmarkets took a breather
during 3QFY2010, by ending with qoq gains of only 2%, after having registered superlative
returns in the previous two quarters. This restricted performance by the stockmarket came in
despite the continued strong liquidity inflows during the quarter. While part of this could be
attributed to the diversion of funds into the primary market, the fact that domestic Mutual
Funds were net sellers during the quarter also contributed to the same.

Further, the Sensex returns paled in comparison to its global peers as can be seen.
While China, which was down 6% in the September 2009 quarter, made a smart comeback
topping the quarterly chart with 18% returns, Russia managed 15% returns on the back of
firm commodity prices. Brazil continued its gaining streak, up 12% qoq. While the US and
the UK markets too managed decent gains as their economies displayed signs of stability, the
Sensex ended the quarter with one of the worst relative performance, up 2% qoq in
3QFY2010. Thus, with the performance this quarter, the Sensex delivered a handsome 81%
return in 2009, which was a tad better than China's 80%, but not good enough to beat the
returns generated by its BRIC peers like Russia (131%) and Brazil (83%). Nonetheless, as a
group, Emerging Markets have performed exceedingly well in 2009 and have received record
inflows.

To put this in perspective, as per Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR) Global,
emerging equity fund inflows have been at over US $80bn in 2009, which is the highest since
EPFR started tracking the data in 1997. Also, worth noting is the fact that the world's four
biggest emerging market economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China (known collectively as
BRIC) accounted for the bulk of this year's investor interest, with about US $60bn of these
inflows. Going forward, the trend of high inflows into the emerging economies is expected to
broadly continue as Fund Managers look for investment avenues where the growth is and
countries like India and China present such opportunities which will attract higher
allocations.

FII inflows create a new record;

MFs on the backfoot Notably, FIIs had begun 2009 in profit-booking mode having
sold Indian equity worth Rs6700cr (US $1.3bn) in the March 2009 quarter. However, with
the global liquidity scenario improving thereafter, leading to the return of risk appetite of
global investors, FIIs invested almost Rs67,000cr (US $13.8bn) in 1HFY2010. They topped it
up with another Rs23,000cr (US $5bn) investment into Indian equities during 3QFY2010
taking the total cumulative inflows to over Rs83,000cr (US $17.5bn) in calendar 2009, the

26
highest ever in Rupee terms in a single year. However, a significant portion of inflows by
FIIs in 2009 have come through qualified institutional placements (QIP) and IPOs combined.
As far as the domestic Mutual Funds industry was concerned, while they once again were in
the profit-booking mode throughout the quarter with net sales of Rs7,000cr (US $1.5bn), for
calendar 2009, they were net sellers to the tune of Rs4,700cr (US $1bn).

FDI - Significant capital yet to come

In line with the strong inflows trend witnessed on the FII front, FDI inflows into the
country also increased by 16.2% yoy at US $8.3bn for 2QFY2010. The momentum was
sustained during the month of October 2009 with an FDI inflow of US $2.3bn, up 56% yoy, a
growth number partially aided by the low base of the corresponding month last year as
liquidity had dried up in the global financial markets post the US credit crisis then. However,
efforts by Governments and Central Banks across the globe ensured, through a mix of fiscal
and monetary easing tools, that global liquidity returned to comfortable levels, leading to
capital from the developed world once again scouting for avenues for optimal growth. Thus,
considering that growth (or rather high growth) in the current times and for many years to
come is expected to be the prerogative of the developing world, and especially the BRIC
nations, countries like China and India will continue to remain the front runners in attracting
capital inflows in the years to come. In fact, as per UNCTAD's World Investment Report
2009, India ranks 3rd (China 1st) as the preferred locations for FDI inflows!

Going forward, into 2010 and beyond, we believe that India will continue to witness
an improvement across various categories of inflows, be it FDI, FII, ECBs, etc. as
considering the growth trajectory the economy has set itself on, it will require investments
much above the savings rate, which is sufficient to achieve a GDP growth rate of only about
6%. Thus, if India wants to achieve and sustain higher growth rates of 8-9% per annum, it
will require the assistance of foreign capital inflows.

Signs of global economic recovery evident

The signs of a global economy recovery, including in the US and the UK, are clearly
evident even as skeptics continue to write this recovery off as temporary and bet on a double-
dip recession, as the effects of the government and monetary stimulus wears off. However,
while we acknowledge the fact that the governments across the globe, including in India, will
have to plan an exit strategy in 2010 considering the fact that most governments are running
high fiscal deficits and there is limited scope for them to maintain the spend ing momentum
for a longer period of time, we believe that by then economies would have already switched
into auto- gear and the self sustaining mode.

There has been a sustained recovery in consumer and business confidence in the US
and the UK post March 2009. This, along with significant liquidity sloshing in the system,
will ensure that the economies do not cripple again. Further, even the de-growth in Industrial
Production numbers have started to ease, which is reflected in better-than-expected GDP

27
numbers. Further, the results of a recent McKinsey Global Survey also threw up some
encouraging results. As can be seen in the charts above, while 69% of the executives
surveyed in December 2009 (vs. 64% in October 2009) were hopeful of a moderately-to-
substantially better economy, nearly 76% of the respondents were of the opinion that their
economies will witness an upturn in 2010. Further, the survey also revealed that the share of
respondents which sought external funds increased to 41% in December 2009 (vs. 32 % in
October 2009) and more were able to get the funds they sought; all of which indicate the
rising hope among executives that funds will be available to them.

We believe that the global economic recovery will be led by the developing world in
the near-to- medium-term as the developed world continues to grapple with high
unemployment rates, which will put some pressure on its consumer and investment demand.
Notably, akin to China's GDP growth, which improved from 6.1% yoy in the March 2009
quarter to 8.9% yoy in the September 2009 quarter, the signs of economic improvement are
also getting stronger in India with the quarterly GDP having recovered from 5.3% yoy in
3QFY20009 to 7.9% yoy in 2QFY2010. We expect the economy to gain further strength,
notwithstanding the short-term impact of deficient monsoons on GDP in 2HFY2010, as low
interest rates help kick start another bout of corporate and consumer credit pick-up in the
quarters to come.

Oil - Nudging the higher end of the range

Crude oil oscillated within a tight range during the quarter gone by (US $70-80 per
barrel), which was largely within the broad range expected by us of US $60-80 per barrel.
However, considering that the range during 3QFY2010 was higher than the range crude oil
traded in during 2QFY2010 (US $60-74 per barrel), on the qoq basis crude oil price averaged
higher by about 11% and on the point-to-point basis, it was higher by about 12%. Thus, with
the gains this quarter, crude oil price ended 2009 higher by about 78%. While the recovery in
crude oil prices could be attributed in part to OPEC's strategy of curtailing oil production by
4.2mn barrels per day in wake of the global slump post the financial crisis, the gains in crude
were also a factor of the stability settling in global economies along with the recovery in oil
consumption during 3QFY2010 on the back of some improvement in global economic
activities. Also supporting crude oil prices was a weak dollar, indicated by Dollar Index,
which slid from about 90 levels in March 2009 to sub-75 levels by December 2009 before
recovering some ground.

However, in the near-to- medium-term, considering that there continues to remain the
possibility to bring additional supplies on-stream to absorb higher demand, we do not expect
a substantial increase in global crude oil prices from the current levels. Further, with the US
economy stabilizing, there remains limited scope for further weakness of the US currency.
Moreover, we believe that crude oil price higher than US $75 per barrel for a prolonged
period is sufficient enough to incentivize production from costlier resources such as
deepwater fields, which will keep a tab on the rise in crude prices. On the other hand, we also
believe that the downside from the current levels is also not significant in the medium- term as
OPECs pricing policy pegs oil prices at US$ 60-70 per barrel. Thus, we continue to maintain

28
that oil could continue to trade within the range of US $60-80 per barrel, with a marginally
upward bias of upto US $85 per barrel in 2010 in wake of global economic recovery picking
up pace.

Metals - The Chinese rescue continues

On the base metals front, prices managed to build on their previous quarter gains as
sustained demand from the largest consumer of base metals in the world, China, continued
unabated. Taking advantage of the low metal prices and the resilience displayed by its
economy, aptly supported by the near US $600bn stimulus plan announced by its government
in November 2008, China continued to import base metals in substantial quantities, which
helped push up prices on the qoq basis. Notably, the Chinese government had been buying
base metals not only to take advantage of the low prices but also keeping in view its
continued high investments, especially in infrastructure. In fact, recently, the country's
Commerce Minister stated China's intentions of increasing imports and reserves of strategic
resources in 2010, which spells good times for certain commodities. Apart from the China
factor, end of the de-stocking period and disciplined increase in production have been the
other factors supporting the firm metal prices. The continued weakness of the US$ against
other currencies also helped push up metal prices further.

However, contrary to the base metal prices, Steel prices have weakened on the qoq
basis, despite the strength witnessed in raw material prices like those of Iron Ore (led by
demand push). This could largely be attributed to continued high global inventories on
account of high steel production by countries, especially China. Going forward, while the
movement of the US$ could dictate the short-term trend of metal prices, we believe that the
high inventory levels across metals would prevent any sharp up move in metal prices in the
medium-term, even as the broad trend would remain range bound with an upward bias, in-
tandem with the global economic recovery.

Inflation - Cause for worry

After a brief deflationary period, most economies across the globe have started to
witness inflation creep into their systems. In the case of India, the inflationary pressures have
exceeded expectations in recent weeks. Thus, for the week ended November 28, 2009, the
headline inflation measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) came in at 4.8% yoy
compared to the previous reading of 1.5% yoy in mid-October 2009. Admittedly, this statistic
was marginally ahead of our expectation.

The Food articles index, which has a 15% weightage in the WPI, has witnessed a
sharp rise (decade high of 20% yoy as on December 5, 2009 before cooling off a bit in the
subsequent week) since March 2009 and particularly since August 2009. As stated in our
earlier note, this is primarily being driven by supply-side factors as agriculture in the country
was severely affected on account of the monsoon failure over several parts of the country that
led to drought/ drought- like situation across almost 50% of the country. However,
government representatives are hopeful that food inflation will start to taper off in the New
Year. Notably, post the recent sharp surge, while inflation is now expected to settle between

29
7.5-8% by March 2010 against the earlier expectation of 6-7%, we expect the inflation to
average out at about 3% against the earlier expectation of 2.5%.

As far as the global inflationary pressures are concerned, as a consequence of the

loose monetary policy followed by Central Banks across the globe and the fiscal stimuli
provided by various governments, while the world seems to have warded off a prolonged
period of recession, however, this has led to inflation creeping back into the system.
However, the policy makers are less worried about this development at this point in time.
This is because; while some of the concerns pertaining to this can be written off considering
it to be a statistical impact of a low base of last year, at the same time, the lower-than-
potential-strength of the economic recovery at the current juncture will ensure that there is no
runaway inflationary pressures in the near-to-medium-term.

Curre ncy - Strong capital inflows lend support

On the currency front, the Indian Rupee too behaved along expected lines as it
remained broadly range bound within the Rs46-47.75/US$ band. Nonetheless, on the qoq
basis, the Rupee was stronger as it averaged about 3.5% higher against the US$ at Rs46.7 vs.
Rs48.4 in the previous quarter (range of Rs47-49.5/US$) primarily led by a weak dollar and
strong capital inflows into the country. Going forward, while higher capital inflows in the
form of FDI, FII, etc. coupled with higher exports are inevitable, this will put an upward
pressure on the Rupee. However, we remain confident that the RBI will manage the Rupee
appreciation in the interest of the economy so as to keep our goods and services competitive
in the exports market. Thus, we continue to maintain that the Rupee would trade within the
US$45-50 range for the next few quarters.

Inte rest rates - Not an immediate threat to growth

The global economy has stabilized. Most economies are out of the crisis as their
economies have displayed some signs of resumption in growth. Unemployment rates, though
at historic highs, seem to have peaked out. Liquidity remains comfortable. Consumer and
Business confidence is back. Economic growth prospects for 2010 seem to be far better than
those prevalent in 2009. And last but not the least, as a consequence, inflationary pressures
and/or expectations of inflationary pressures are already visible across some economies
globally.

Notably, while as yet interest rates have continued to remain at multi- year lows as
governments want their economies to firmly set themselves on a growth path, the inevitable
course of action for Central Banks would be to tighten the Monetary Policy by increasing
interest rates to prevent runaway inflationary pressures when the growth engine starts to run
at full potential. In fact, a good case in point here is that of the Australian Central Bank,
which has increased its interest rates by 75bps in the past 3 months (25bps each) to 3.75%,
even as it remains far lower than the long-term average of about 5-5.5%. Notably, the
Australian economy displayed relatively high resilience to the global financial crises of 2008-
2009 and has thus been able to recoup faster than its peers. Thus, with the financial/ credit
markets improving significantly in the country along with the risk of an economic contraction

30
now a passé, the Australian government opted to withdraw gradually the stimulus it provided
as the economy switches to the self-sustaining mode.

Akin to the Australian economy, the Indian economy has also been quite resilient in
the face of the global financial turmoil. Further, post the Government and Central Bank
intervention, the Indian GDP growth rate has improved from 5.3% yoy in 3QFY2009 to 7.9%
yoy in 2QFY2010 and coupled with inflation, which has increased substantially, led by food
price inflation, a large section of the market is expecting an interest rate hike soon. However,
in our view, broader interest rates will rise in tandem with the sustained improvement in GDP
growth. Currently, credit growth in the country is very low at 10-11% and there is huge
amount of liquidity in the banking system, which indicates that lending and deposit rates are
unlikely to rise in the near-term, even though the government may give effect to a token 25-
50bps CRR hike to suck out some liquidity from the system. However, it must be noted that
Inflation led by rise in food prices cannot be controlled by monetary tools, and the
government recognizes this correlation. Thus, we believe that as far as the core inflation
remains low, the RBI would not increase key policy rates and create hurdles in India's path to
8-9% GDP growth.

Notably, even the RBI has clearly stated earlier that it does not wish to tighten
monetary policy in response to supply-side inflation. Nonetheless, even if tightening begins
in early 2010, it must be borne in mind that in the previous cycles, such tightening did not
rein in credit growth for almost 2-3 years, simply because the latent demand in India is huge,
which holds true just as much even today.

Fiscal Deficit - Drought to put some additional pressure

A failed monsoon couldn't have come at a more inappropriate time for the Indian
economy, which is already reeling under the pressure of a high fiscal deficit. While the merits
of having created such a situation in the face of a global economic downturn are now well
known, a drought for an 'agrarian' economy like India, wherein over 60% of the population
resides in rural India with agriculture as the primary source of livelihood, has only increased
the challenges for the CEOs of the country, albeit marginally. A failed monsoon increases the
government spend on food imports and relief for farmers. In fact, the government has already
indicated of an additional spend of ~Rs7,700cr in order to subsidise food and fertilizers and
bolster a National Calamity Contingency Fund to mitigate the impact of calamities like
drought. Apart from this, expenditure towards Commonwealth Games and the Metro Projects
is expected to lead to additional expenditure of Rs15000-20000cr. Thus, after the ~8.5% in
FY2009, India's Fiscal Deficit is expected to balloon to about ~11% in FY2010. The
government, however, is keen to revert back to its path of fiscal consolidation. It has set for
itself a target of about 1-2.5% reduction in central fiscal deficit by FY2012. We believe that
this is possible as the economy goes into auto mode, reducing its dependence on stimulus
measures which will then gradually be withdrawn. Tax collections will also improve in- line
with the improvement in India's GDP, which will also aid government finances. Thus,
considering all of the above, we believe that India's Fiscal Deficit will peak out in FY2010
and will reduce to ~9% in FY2011.

31
IIP - On the path to a reasonably strong recovery

The response to the stimulus packages and the return in consumer and business
confidence is clearly reflected in the sharp recovery witnessed in the Index of Industrial
Production (IIP) over the past few months. As can be seen in the chart, after recording a
growth of -0.2% yoy in the month of December 2008 and improving marginally to 0.3% yoy
in March 2009, the IIP has been improving ever since. For April-October 2009, IIP was up an
average of 7% yoy. Further, with economic activity expected to gather further momentum in
the coming months, along with global stability expected to lend support to Indian exports and
a favorable base effect of last year, we expect the IIP growth in the remaining months of
FY2010 to be in the 8- 10% range, which would push the full year IIP growth to ~7.5% yoy.
With domestic dynamics favoring a sustained economic recovery and post the substantially
better-than-expected 2QFY2010 GDP growth of 7.9% yoy, we now expect India's GDP
growth in FY2010 to be at ~7% (6.7% in FY2009 and 7% in 1HFY2010). Notably, going
forward, we expect the impact of a weak agricultural output on account of the monsoon
failure in the country to take its toll on GDP numbers. However, assuming a normal monsoon
next year along with the continued contribution from the manufacturing and services sectors,
the GDP would clock a growth of 8-8.5% in FY2011.

4.4.4. Micro environment (October 2009 to December 2009)

Infrastructure development - the undisputed route to economic growth Infrastructure
has been the top priority of the UPA government's agenda ever since it got re-elected in May
2009. This was partly on account of the stimulus effect that the infrastructure sector could
provide to the economy, and also because of the cascading effect that investments in
infrastructure development have on overall economic growth. This positive effect was not
only discounted in the infrastructure stock prices, which ran up after the election outcome,
but has also been documented by a World Bank report. The World Bank report says that
every rupee spent on roads (read: infrastructure) creates seven rupees in economic benefits.
The rapid economic growth experienced by the Indian economy over the past few years has
only made the deficiencies in infrastructure starker. This led to stress on infrastructure
development and higher allocation which is substantiated by infrastructure companies
bagging orders. We believe that we are almost through the phase of realization 'of lack of
infrastructure and the strangling effect it has on the economic growth of a country like India'.
This is pertinent at least in the case of the Roads, Irrigation and Power segments, and is
corroborated by the aggressive targets set by the NHAI and the massive plans setup by
various, recently- listed companies for power generation. In segments like roads, irrigation
and power, the planning phase is on track, leading to execution plans being aggressively
chalked out. However, it is quite evident that in spite of aggressive planning and orders been
awarded it is the implementation rate that will finally decide the outcome. For a majority of
the infrastructure segments, prior work-related experience (technical criteria) and substantial
net worth (financial criteria) serve as pre-qualification norms. While the latter can be built by
accessing the capital markets, the former is built only over a number of years. Such a
threshold has a direct bearing on the timely execution of projects. Thus, such a entry barrier

32
for new entrants getting created at the implementation stage leads to substantial bargaining
power for established players.

Major Events during the quarter

BKC recomme ndations sanctioned - gear shifts, on road to highway development

The Prime Minister had constituted a committee chaired by Mr. B.K.Chaturvedi

(Member of the Planning Commission), to discuss the ramping up of the NHDP. The
objective of the committee was to resolve procedural impediments to the NHDP program, to
take a holistic look at the financing need and to arrive at a financing plan that balances the
needs of the road sector with other priority areas of the Government. The recommendations
of the B.K.Chaturvedi Committee (Part-I) were sanctioned, which is bound to expedite the
process of road infrastructure development. The sanctioned recommendations bring about
amendments in key areas of road projects awarding activity, such as: 1) Parallel mode of
award activity as against sequential earlier, 2) Approving of projects with single bids, 3)
Increase of Cross-holding clause limit from 5% earlier to 25%, 4) Revision to the maximum
holding that the lead member should have during construction and providing an exit route
once project is operational, and 5) Revision to the Technical clause criteria. We believe that
this event would act as a catalyst in expediting award activity.

The Telangana State formation - a spoilsport

The city of Hyderabad is located amidst Telangana, and happens to be the most
developed part of the region. It derives a major proportion of its finances from the NRI
remittances and the business class of coastal Andhra Pradesh. A possible formation of the
State of Telangana can have a severe repercussion in the form of a loss of this revenue
stream. This apprehension (relating to the loss of a strong revenue stream) can lead to people
getting out of their investments, leading to a pressure on the Hyderabad real estate market. In
light of these unexpected developments that are shaping up, we continue to remain cautious
on companies having a relatively higher concentration in the state of AP, in the near to
medium term, but continue to maintain our positive outlook from a relatively longer term
perspective.

Market v/s Infrastructure stocks

On the bourses, 3QFY2010 saw Midcap infrastructure stocks outperforming the Large
cap infrastructure stocks. This out performance has primarily been on account of relatively
cheap valuations. Overall, there was an outperformance on a sectoral basis (our coverage
universe yielded average return of 13.5% over the quarter vis-à-vis the market registering a
return of 2.0%). MPL was one of the prime gainers, registering gains of 29%, and our Top-
pick.

Earnings Outlook

With vital components (for infrastructure development) in place, viz. Capital,

Commodity prices, political will and strong pipeline, we expect the Order Book-to-Sales ratio

33
to lend a fillip to the Top- line growth of the companies over the ensuing years. This is against
the backdrop of players vying for an increasing proportion of the infrastructure opportunity
pie. Accordingly, we expect companies under our coverage to post a mixed set of Top- line
growth for 3QFY2010, due to a strong Order Book and increased visibility, particularly with
the UPA government back in power. Earnings growth would, however, be a function of the
project mix.

Outlook

In light of the pivotal role that the Infrastructure Sector plays in enabling growth
going ahead, we believe that the government will have to continue focusing on infrastructure
development in the country. Moreover, in the long-term, with the economy on a roll (India
has averaged 8-9% growth over the last 4-5 years), we expect the Infrastructure Sector to
attract more funds, not only from the domestic space but also from the international arena.
Other factors, including the political intent, liquidity position, commodity and crude prices,
and structural and procedural reforms at various government body levels (like NHAI), are
also well positioned for the Indian infrastructure growth story to pan out. Over the next few
quarters, we expect the healthy Order Backlogs of the companies in our universe to translate
into Earnings growth.

We do not rule out the possibility of moderate monetary tightening by the Reserve
Bank of India, resulting in a slight hardening of Interest rates. However, this is unlikely to
have a material impact on Earnings, as a number of avenues of availing finance at
competitive rates have now opened up, especially for infrastructure companies.

34
 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1. COMPARISON OF FUND’S PERFORMANCE WITH NIFTY’S

PERFORMANCE

Data analysis using ANOVA statistics showed that returns from the index and the
fund are not significantly different; hence it is very difficult to say that whether fund
has performed well or poor. But in wake of government‟s efforts and favorable micro
and macro environmental conditions fund should have performed significantly better
then the market.

5.2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FUND’S RETURN AND NIFTY’S

RETURN

Data analysis using regression showed that 85.1% variance in fund‟s return can be
explained by nifty‟s return. It shows that there is a high positive correlation among
fund‟s return and nifty‟s return.

5.3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FUND’S NAV AND NIFTY’S

VALUE

Data analysis using regression showed that 94.7 % variance in NAV of the fund can be
explained by nifty‟s value. It shows that there is a high positive correlation among
fund‟s NAV and nifty‟s Value.

35
 6. REFERENCES

1. Aaker, D. A., Kumar V. and Day G. S.(2009), Marketing Research, 9 th Edition, John
Wiley & Sons Inc., U.K.
2. Malhotra N K (2004), Marketing Research, 4th Edition, Pearson Education Inc., USA
3. Donald E. Fisher & Ronald J. Jordan (2006), Security analysis and portfolio
management, 6th edition, Pearson prentice hall
4. Sundar sankarn (2003), Indian mutual funds handbook, Vision books
5. William F. Sharpe, Gordon j. Alexander, Jeffery V. Bailey (2006), Investments, 6 th
edition, Prentice hall publication
6. Charles P. Jones(2004), Investments: analysis and management, 9 th edition, Wiley
student edition
7. www.angelbroking.com
8. www.amfiindia.com
9. www.nseindia.com

36
 APPENDIX
Date NAV Nifty ROF ROI
20-Jul 10.07 4502.25
21-Jul 10.05 4469.10 -0.16 -0.74
22-Jul 10.03 4398.90 -0.25 -1.57
23-Jul 10.14 4523.75 1.06 2.84
24-Jul 10.19 4568.55 0.55 0.99
27-Jul 10.21 4572.30 0.14 0.08
28-Jul 10.26 4564.10 0.53 -0.18
29-Jul 10.18 4513.50 -0.76 -1.11
30-Jul 10.22 4571.45 0.39 1.28
31-Jul 10.29 4636.45 0.63 1.42
3-Aug 10.39 4711.40 0.96 1.62
4-Aug 10.33 4680.50 -0.51 -0.66
5-Aug 10.35 4694.15 0.21 0.29
6-Aug 10.22 4585.50 -1.32 -2.31
7-Aug 10.11 4481.40 -1.08 -2.27
10-Aug 10.06 4437.65 -0.50 -0.98
11-Aug 10.09 4471.35 0.30 0.76
12-Aug 10.09 4457.50 0.04 -0.31
13-Aug 10.28 4605.00 1.90 3.31
14-Aug 10.26 4580.05 -0.18 -0.54
17-Aug 10.05 4387.90 -2.06 -4.20
18-Aug 10.14 4458.90 0.89 1.62
19-Aug 10.06 4394.10 -0.78 -1.45
20-Aug 10.13 4453.45 0.70 1.35
21-Aug 10.22 4528.80 0.86 1.69
24-Aug 10.35 4642.80 1.33 2.52
25-Aug 10.35 4659.35 -0.01 0.36
26-Aug 10.40 4680.85 0.47 0.46
27-Aug 10.43 4688.20 0.25 0.16
28-Aug 10.49 4732.35 0.57 0.94
31-Aug 10.43 4662.10 -0.53 -1.48
1-Sep 10.34 4625.35 -0.87 -0.79
2-Sep 10.30 4608.35 -0.37 -0.37
3-Sep 10.30 4593.55 -0.05 -0.32
4-Sep 10.38 4680.40 0.84 1.89
7-Sep 10.56 4782.90 1.67 2.19
8-Sep 10.60 4805.25 0.39 0.47
9-Sep 10.61 4814.25 0.09 0.19
10-Sep 10.61 4819.40 0.04 0.11
11-Sep 10.60 4829.55 -0.13 0.21
14-Sep 10.59 4808.60 -0.13 -0.43

37
15-Sep 10.71 4892.10 1.20 1.74
16-Sep 10.78 4958.40 0.60 1.36
17-Sep 10.83 4965.55 0.45 0.14
18-Sep 10.91 4976.05 0.80 0.21
22-Sep 10.91 5020.20 -0.05 0.89
23-Sep 10.81 4969.95 -0.87 -1.00
24-Sep 10.83 4986.55 0.15 0.33
25-Sep 10.81 4958.95 -0.18 -0.55
29-Sep 10.89 5006.85 0.79 0.97
30-Sep 11.00 5083.95 1.00 1.54
1-Oct 11.02 5083.40 0.11 -0.01
5-Oct 10.89 5003.20 -1.16 -1.58
6-Oct 10.94 5027.40 0.46 0.48
7-Oct 10.97 4985.75 0.25 -0.83
8-Oct 11.07 5002.25 0.95 0.33
9-Oct 10.97 4945.20 -0.90 -1.14
12-Oct 11.21 5054.25 2.20 2.21
14-Oct 11.41 5118.20 1.80 1.27
15-Oct 11.43 5108.85 0.12 -0.18
16-Oct 11.50 5142.15 0.61 0.65
20-Oct 11.49 5114.45 -0.08 -0.54
21-Oct 11.40 5063.60 -0.77 -0.99
22-Oct 11.21 4988.60 -1.65 -1.48
23-Oct 11.24 4997.05 0.23 0.17
26-Oct 11.06 4970.90 -1.59 -0.52
27-Oct 10.80 4846.70 -2.35 -2.50
28-Oct 10.78 4826.15 -0.20 -0.42
29-Oct 10.63 4750.55 -1.35 -1.57
30-Oct 10.59 4711.70 -0.40 -0.82
3-Nov 10.28 4563.90 -2.91 -3.14
4-Nov 10.54 4710.80 2.49 3.22
5-Nov 10.66 4765.55 1.16 1.16
6-Nov 10.81 4796.15 1.47 0.64
9-Nov 11.01 4898.40 1.79 2.13
10-Nov 10.99 4881.70 -0.20 -0.34
11-Nov 11.21 5003.95 2.08 2.50
12-Nov 11.09 4952.65 -1.13 -1.03
13-Nov 11.17 4998.95 0.76 0.93
16-Nov 11.27 5058.05 0.87 1.18
17-Nov 11.27 5062.25 0.02 0.08
18-Nov 11.27 5054.70 -0.03 -0.15
19-Nov 11.08 4989.00 -1.68 -1.30
20-Nov 11.19 5052.45 1.00 1.27
23-Nov 11.27 5103.55 0.68 1.01

38
24-Nov 11.19 5090.55 -0.70 -0.25
25-Nov 11.18 5108.15 -0.02 0.35
26-Nov 11.02 5005.55 -1.43 -2.01
27-Nov 10.90 4941.75 -1.14 -1.27
30-Nov 11.08 5032.70 1.67 1.84
1-Dec 11.22 5122.00 1.28 1.77
2-Dec 11.24 5123.25 0.15 0.02
3-Dec 11.25 5131.70 0.08 0.16
4-Dec 11.21 5108.90 -0.34 -0.44
7-Dec 11.12 5066.70 -0.81 -0.83
8-Dec 11.22 5147.95 0.91 1.60
9-Dec 11.14 5112.00 -0.71 -0.70
10-Dec 11.19 5134.65 0.45 0.44
11-Dec 11.16 5117.30 -0.26 -0.34
14-Dec 11.13 5105.70 -0.28 -0.23
15-Dec 10.97 5033.05 -1.47 -1.42
16-Dec 11.00 5042.05 0.27 0.18
17-Dec 11.04 5041.75 0.38 -0.01
18-Dec 10.95 4987.70 -0.87 -1.07
21-Dec 10.89 4952.60 -0.48 -0.70
22-Dec 10.98 4985.85 0.81 0.67
23-Dec 11.22 5144.60 2.20 3.18
24-Dec 11.34 5178.40 1.08 0.66
29-Dec 11.39 5187.95 0.40 0.18
30-Dec 11.38 5169.45 -0.13 -0.36
31-Dec 11.40 5201.05 0.18 0.61
4-Jan 11.47 5232.20 0.62 0.60
5-Jan 11.61 5277.90 1.24 0.87
6-Jan 11.63 5281.80 0.15 0.07
7-Jan 11.64 5263.10 0.16 -0.35
8-Jan 11.67 5244.75 0.20 -0.35
11-Jan 11.74 5249.40 0.65 0.09
12-Jan 11.63 5210.40 -0.93 -0.74
13-Jan 11.65 5233.95 0.10 0.45
14-Jan 11.71 5259.90 0.54 0.50
15-Jan 11.66 5252.20 -0.39 -0.15
18-Jan 11.74 5274.85 0.62 0.43
19-Jan 11.63 5225.65 -0.89 -0.93
20-Jan 11.58 5221.70 -0.47 -0.08
21-Jan 11.28 5094.15 -2.60 -2.44
22-Jan 11.10 5036.00 -1.60 -1.14
25-Jan 10.98 5007.90 -1.03 -0.56
27-Jan 10.66 4853.10 -2.96 -3.09
28-Jan 10.68 4867.25 0.20 0.29

39
29-Jan 10.76 4882.05 0.76 0.30
1-Feb 10.90 4899.70 1.29 0.36
2-Feb 10.75 4830.10 -1.33 -1.42
3-Feb 10.96 4931.85 1.96 2.11
4-Feb 10.78 4845.35 -1.70 -1.75
5-Feb 10.55 4718.65 -2.13 -2.61
8-Feb 10.64 4760.40 0.86 0.88
9-Feb 10.69 4792.65 0.54 0.68
10-Feb 10.68 4757.20 -0.14 -0.74
11-Feb 10.83 4826.85 1.41 1.46
15-Feb 10.77 4801.95 -0.52 -0.52
16-Feb 10.86 4855.75 0.78 1.12
17-Feb 10.97 4914.00 1.07 1.20
18-Feb 10.89 4887.75 -0.77 -0.53

40