cimlogic.co.uk thejakartapost.

com

medium.com

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2018-19:

Theguardian.com

CLIMBING AMID GLOBAL TURMOIL

Faisal Basri
28 November 2018
Tekanan bertubi-tubi kenaikan suku bunga

▪ The Fed akan terus menaikkan suku bunga acuan:

sekali lagi tahun ini, dan sekitar 3 kali tahun depan
▪ BI pun sudah menaikkan 7-day Repo Rate 5 kali
pada era Gubernur BI yang baru.
▪ LDR merangkak naik mendekati 100 persen,
likuiditas perbankan semakin ketat.
▪ Kenaikan utang pemerintah menyebabkan
crowding-out effect
▪ Laju inflasi akan lebih tinggi tahun depan karena
penyesuaian harga BBM dan tarif listrik
Laju inflasi cenderung naik cukup signifikan

▪ Dari sekitar 3 persen tahun ini ke sekitar 5 persen

tahun depan
▪ Jika pasangan No.1 yang menang, penyesuaian tarif
listrik dan harga BBM lebih cepat, sekitar Mei-Juni:
berbenah sebelum pelantikan presiden.
▪ Jika pasangan no.2 yang menang, penyesuaian
dilakukan akhir tahun setelah pelantikan
The inflation rate in 2018 is relatively low
due to price control Closing the gap Indonesia Economic Quarterly

19 18,4 BI target 2018: 3.5% ± 1% Inflation comparison across

Appendix Figure 13: Monthly breakdown of CPI Appendix Figure 14: Inflation comparison across countries
Calender year 2018 = 2.22%
(contribution to growth yoy, percentage points) countries (growth, yoy, %)
(growth yoy, percent)
18
October 2018 (yoy) = 3.16%
Processed Food Food Indonesia*
17 10 Clothing
Health
Transportation
Education India *
9 Housing CPI
Malaysia
16 8
7 Philippines
15 6 USA *
5 Korea
14 4 China *
3 Singapore
13
2 12,1 Japan
1
12 Thailand *
0
Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
11
Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; CEIC; World Bank staff calculations
* August 2017 data, others July.
Note: *August 2017 data; others July.
10 Source: World Bank.
Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice Appendix Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate
prices 8,8
9 8,4
(wholesale price, in IDR per kg) (percent)
20
8 11,000 7,3
Domestic rice, IR64-II
7 9,500 16
Poverty rate
6
8,000
12
5 4,5 4,4
6,500 Vietnamese rice 5% broken
4 3,5 Unemployment rate
8
5,000
3 3,2
3,500 4
2 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Jan'03

Jan'04

Jan'05

Jan'06

Jan'07

Jan'08

Jan'09

Jan'10

Jan'11

Jan'12

Jan'13

Jan'14

Jan'15

Jan'16

Jan'17

Jan'18
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
4
7
10
Source: Cipinang wholesale rice market; FAO Source: BPS
Note: “5% broken” refers to the quality of milled rice. 5 percent Note: Poverty line based on national poverty line
being the proportion of grains broken during the processing stage.

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices Appendix Figure 18: Selected currencies against USD
(daily index, September 1, 2015=100) (monthly index, August 2015=100)
Nilai tukar rupiah

▪ Dua minggu terakhir rupiah menguat, padahal CAD

meningkat
▪ CAD mecerminkan kondisi sektor riil (sektor
produksi barang dan jasa), sedangkan nilai tukar
rupiah lebih merupakan cerminan feomena
moneter
▪ Kebijakan moneter merespon untuk jangka pendek,
sedangkan CAD mecerminkan persoalan structural
yang tidak bisa diselesaikan dalam jangka pendek
▪ Oleh karena itu, dalam jangka menengah (tahun
depan), rupiah akan cenderung melemah
 IDR slid to a two-decade low since the 1998 Asian
financial crisis, recovered in the last 2 weeks
IDR per USD based on JISDOR
(Scale inverted to show weakening IDR)
04/07/04

09/17/13
01/23/14
06/03/14
10/08/14
02/09/15
06/15/15
10/21/15
02/24/16
06/28/16
11/03/16
03/08/17
07/25/17
11/24/17
04/02/18
08/16/18
13-May

24-May

13-May
Mar-19
10-Nov

30-Nov
30-Aug

06-Aug

18-Aug

Aug-12
13-Dec

22-Dec
14-Sep

27-Sep
06-Feb

28-Feb

07-Apr

14-Apr

26-Apr
10-Oct
12-Jun
05-Jan

19-Jan

Jan-08
Jul-24
03-Jul
7.500
8.440
(08/02/2011)
8.500

9.500

10.500

10.800
11.500 (08/30/2005)

12.500
12.400
(11/24-26/2008)

13.500

14.500

14.728
(09/29/2015)
15.500

Source: Bank Indonesia

 Foreign exchange reserves decreased by US$17
billions in the last 8 months
132.0
140
US$ billions

124.6 (Jan'18)
(Aug'11)
115.5
120 (Feb'15)

115.16
100 (Oct'18)
100.2
92.7 (Nov'15)
80 (Jul'13)
60.6
(Jul'08)
60

50.2
40 (Nov'08)

30.3
20 (Sep'05)

0
Jan'04

Jan'05

Jan'06

Jan'07

Jan'08

Jan'09

Jan'10

Jan'11

Jan'12

Jan'13

Jan'14

Jan'15

Jan'16

Jan'17

Jan'18
5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9

5
9
Source: Bank Indonesia.
 Pasca krisis 1998, nilai tukar rupiah berkorelasi
kuat dengan current account
0 661 6
4,55
2.000
4
2,80
4.000 2.909
2

6.000 0,19
0
7.855
8.000 8.577 8.770 -1,71
-2
10.000
10.014 10.261 -2,86
10.390
-3,43 -4
12.000
-4,59
-6
14.000 13.389
14.220
16.000 -7,34 -8
1985

2014
1982
1983
1984

1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

2015
2016
2017
2018*
Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average)-LHS
Current account balance (% of GDP)-RHS
*Q1-Q3 (January-September) for current account; year to date (November 21) for exchange rate.
Sources: Bank Indonesia and World Bank.
 Getting to the root of the problem: balance of
payments
USD millions

2014 2015 2016 2017 2017* 2018* Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18
I. CURRENT ACCOUNT -27,510 -17,519 -16,952 -17,307 -11,417 -22,423 -2,215 -4,608 -4,594 -5,600 -7,977 -8,846
A. Goods, net (Trade account) 6,983 14,049 15,318 18,785 15,728 2,222 5,635 4,835 5,258 2,323 297 -398
1. Exports, f.o.b. 175,293 149,124 144,470 168,854 123,322 135,855 40,763 39,167 43,392 44,374 43,759 47,722
-
2. Imports, f.o.b. -168,310 -135,076 -129,152 -150,069 -107,593 133,633 -35,128 -34,332 -38,133 -42,050 -43,463 -48,120
B. Services, net -10,010 -8,697 -7,084 -7,834 -5,500 -5,727 -1,272 -2,129 -2,099 -1,656 -1,856 -2,215
C. Primary Income, net -29,703 -28,379 -29,647 -32,756 -24,953 -23,724 -7,716 -8,307 -8,930 -7,681 -8,017 -8,026
D. Secondary Income, net 5,220 5,508 4,460 4,498 3,307 4,806 1,138 993 1,176 1,414 1,599 1,793
II. CAPITAL ACCOUNT 27 17 41 46 24 70 0 5 19 58 3 9
III. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT 44,916 16,843 29,306 29,356 22,404 10,997 6,748 5,344 10,312 2,303 4,530 4,164
1. Direct investment 14,733 10,704 16,136 19,285 14,545 9,946 2,757 4,376 7,412 3,263 2,734 3,949
2. Portfolio investment 26,067 16,183 18,996 20,899 18,692 -1,271 6,536 8,126 4,030 -1,271 104 -104
3. Financial derivatives -156 20 -9 -128 -59 163 -72 25 -12 60 12 91
4. Other investment 4,272 -10,064 -5,817 -10,700 -10,774 2,159 -2,474 -7,182 -1,118 251 1,680 228
IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -2,184 -439 -305 -509 -399 -1,194 -19 -2 -378 -616 -864 286
V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -15,249 1,098 -12,089 -11,586 -10,612 12,550 -4,514 -739 -5,359 3,855 4,309 4,386
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: Bank Indonesia.
 Getting to the root of the problem: balance of
payments
USD millions

2014 2015 2016 2017 2017* 2018*

I. CURRENT ACCOUNT -27,510 -17,519 -16,952 -17,307 -11,417 -22,423

II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUT 44,943 16,860 29,347 29,402 22,428 11,067

1. Direct investment 14,733 10,704 16,136 19,285 14,545 9,946

2. Portfolio investment 26,067 16,183 18,996 20,899 18,692 -1,271

3. Financial derivatives -156 20 -9 -128 -59 163

4. Other investment 4,272 -10,064 -5,817 -10,700 -10,774 2,159

5. Capital account 27 17 41 46 24 70

IV. NET ERRORS & OMISSIONS -2,184 -439 -305 -509 -399 -1,194

V. RESERVES & RELATED ITEMS -15,249 1,098 -12,089 -11,586 -10,612 12,550
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: Bank Indonesia.
 Simple anatomy of current account
USD millions
2017 2017* 2018* Q3-17 Q3-18
CURRENT ACCOUNT -17,307 -11,417 -22,423 -4,594 -8,846
% of GDP -1.70% -1.50% -2.86% -1.75% -3.37%
A. Goods, net (Trade account) 18,785 15,728 2,222 5,258 -398
1. Non-oil and gas, net 25,236 20,085 11,100 6,323 3,482
2. Oil -12,816 -9,129 -13,549 -2,741 -5,120
3. Gas 5,467 4,130 4,849 1,460 1,593
4. Others 899 641 -177 216 -298
B. Services, net -7,834 -5,500 -5,727 -2,099 -2,215
C. Primary Income, net -32,756 -24,953 -23,724 -8,930 -8,026
1. Compensation of employees -1,509 -1,098 -1,109 -397 -383
2. Investment income -31,248 -23,855 -22,614 -8,533 -7,643
a. Direct investment income -20,161 -14,947 -13,021 -5,338 -4,424
b. Portfolio investment income -8,837 -7,307 -8,048 -2,621 -2,761
C. Other investment income -2,250 -1,601 -1,544 -574 -457
D. Secondary Income, net 4,498 3,307 4,806 1,176 1,793
*Q1-Q3 (January-September)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
 Transaksi perdagangan luar negeri (ekspor dan
impor) kembali defisit selama Januari-Juli 2018
Trade account
US$ billion Growth, % (yoy)
Description
2014 2015 2016 2017 2017* 2018* 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Total export 176.0 150.4 145.2 168.8 138.6 150.9 -3.4 -14.6 -3.9 16.3 8.8

Non-oil and gas 146.0 131.8 132.1 153.1 125.7 136.6 -2.6 -9.8 -0.3 15.9 8.7

Oil and gas 30.0 18.6 13.1 15.7 12.9 14.2 -7.0 -38.2 -29.4 20.1 9.9

Total import 178.2 142.7 -135.6 -157.0 -126.8 -156.4 -4.5 -19.9 -4.9 15.7 23.4

Non-oil and gas 134.7 118.1 -116.9 -132.6 -107.2 -131.4 -4.7 -12.3 -1.0 13.4 22.6

Oil and gas 43.5 24.6 -18.7 -24.3 -19.5 -25.0 -4.0 -43.4 -23.9 29.7 27.7

Surplus (Deficit) -2.2 7.7 9.5 11.8 10.8 -5.5

Non-oil and gas 11.3 13.7 15.2 20.4 16.7 5.2

Oil and gas -13.5 -6.0 -5.6 -8.6 -5.9 -10.7

*January-September.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Surplus perdagangan barang cenderung susut,
bahkan 2012-2014 da 2018 alami defisit
International trade: exports and import
250 50
USD billions

USD billions
200 39,6
39,7
40
150

100 28,6
26,1
30
50 2…
19,7
0 20

-50 11,9
8,3
10
-100
7,8
-150
0
-200 -0,1 -0,4
-4,1
-5,5
-250 -10

2017*
2018*
1985

2008
1945
1955
1965
1973
1975
1983

1988
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Exports (plus)-LHS Imports (minus)-LHS Surplus/deficit-RHS
*January-September.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Trade in services (net)
USD millions

2016 2017 2018*

Manufacturing services 351 354 290
Maintenance and repair services -353 -178 -132
Transport -5,544 -6,864 -6,371
Travel 3,639 4,242 4,041
Construction 93 183 215
Insurance and pension services -661 -647 -517
Financial services -577 -442 -349
Charges for the use of intellectual services -1,686 -1,801 -1,238
Telecommunications, computer, and information -1,175 -1,416 -1,239
Other business services -1,836 -1,947 -1,010
Personal, cultural, ad recreational services 36 74 51
Government goods ad services 630 607 532
Total services -7,084 -7,834 -5,727
*Q1-Q3 (January-September)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Far more portfolio investment than FDI since
2014, but more volatile
FDI Portfolio Total
50
Billions USD

40

30

20

10

2017*

2018*
2012
2008

2009

2010

2011

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
-10

* First half (January-June)

Source: Bank Indonesia.
 FDI ke Indonesia relatif kecil
FDI inflows as a percentage of gross fixed capital formation, period average
1990-97 2000-04 2005-10 2011-16
Indonesia 4.8 -3.3 5.6 5.7
Malaysia 16.0 10.4 13.6 14.0
Philippines 5.2 5.9 7.4 7.0
Thailand 4.5 14.2 13.2 6.1
Viet Nam 33.6 12.6 20.4 23.2
Bolivia 24.1 38.7 11.2 15.5
Asia 6.1 9.2 9.6 6.3
East and South-East Asia 8.0 11.2 9.3 6.5
South-East Asia 10.7 15.1 17.6 17.0
FDI inward stock as a percentage of gross domestic product, period average
1990-97 2000-04 2005-10 2011-16
Indonesia 8.2 7.1 16.2 24.1
Malaysia 29.0 37.6 34.7 40.6
Philippines 7.9 14.5 13.5 17.8
Thailand 10.2 29.1 35.8 44.7
Viet Nam 20.2 47.1 43.1 50.5
Bolivia 23.5 66.1 40.7 33.7
Asia 14.8 20.8 23.9 25.7
East and South-East Asia 21.7 29.8 30.2 29.7
South-East Asia 19.8 41.9 51.1 66.1
Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report database.
Worst in Class
Among emerging Southeast Asian nations, Indonesia attracts the least foreign
direct investments as a percentage of its GDP.

Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

7,0

6,3 6,4

4,5

3,2
3,0 2,9 2,9
2,7
2,4
2,2
1,7 1,7

0,7
0,4

2016 2017 2018

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-12/indonesia-is-flirting-with-the-wrong-kind-of-foreign-money
Japanese FDI relocation from China to ASEAN
heading to Vietnam, nil to Indonesia in 2017
Destination of Japanese FDI relocating from China (number of cases)
2016 2017
38

27

9 9
8

5 5 5

0 0

Vietnam Thailand Philippines Myanmar Indonesia

Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), “Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing
Companies,” 2016 and 2017.
 Stock index had a new record 12 times in 2015,
and 38 times in 2017, 11 times in 2018, but …
IDX (Jakarta Composite Index)
6.800
6.689
▪ On November 26, 2018: 6,022.778
▪ The highest (February 19, 2018): 6,689.287
6.023
5.800 ▪ year to date → -5.24%
▪ year on year→ -0.73%

4.800

3.800

2.800

1.800
Net sale of foreign investors this year to
date (August 29) = IDR 50 triliions.
800
29-Apr

02-Aug

07-Aug

15-Aug

05-Apr

06-Apr
04-May

08-May

19-May
01-Feb

07-Feb

15-Feb

05-Mar

02-Sep

10-Mar

14-Sep

08-Mar

10-Sep

14-Mar

16-Sep

20-Mar

27-Mar

Oct-19
Feb-25

Sep-29

Apr-19
26-Jan
Oct-21'04

28-Jul

01-Dec
26-Oct

08-Nov

07-Nov

20-Nov

May-29
Aug-28

07-Jun

08-Dec

09-Jun

09-Dec

08-Jun

10-Dec

13-Jun

16-Dec

25-Jun

24-Dec

05-Jan

06-Jan
29-Jun

11-Jul

20-Jul
01-Oct

07-Oct

Aug-01
11/01/18
Jan-19
Source: Bursa Efek Indonesia (Indonesia Stock Exchange): http://www.idx.co.id
Foreign holdings in LCY government bonds in
selected Asian countries
Percent of total LCY bonds
45

40
37,8

35

30

25 24,8

20

15 15,7

11,6
10 11,2

5
4,04

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*

Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Korea Japan China

* Data as of 30 June 2018 except for Japan and the Republic of Korea (31 March 2018).
Source: Asian Development Bank, asianbondsonline.adb.org
Recent developments of foreign holdings of EM
of government debt securities in LC bonds

Average

Source: downloaded from https://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2017/060317.pdf

This time is different: pattern of net inflows of
LCY government bonds (IDR triliun)

Note: Year to date for 2018: October 17.

Source: Ministry of Finance.
 The rise and decline of Indonesian economy:
1961-2018
GDP growth, percent
15
Trendline-
10,92 polynomial
9,88
10 8,76
8,22
7,46
6,98
6,35 6,22
5,74
5,07
5
4,98 4,63 5,01 5,03 5,17
Pertamina 3,64
crisis 2,25 2,46
0 Oil price
collapse
-2,24
-5 The fall of
Old Order

-10

Economic crisis and the end

of New Order/Soeharto era
-13,13
-15

* Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank.
 The declining trend of economic growth in the
long-term, 1976-2018
GDP growth, percent
12

10

8 8%
7%
6 6%
5%
4

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

-12

-14
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1976

2000

18*
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Economic growth by island: Eastern Indonesia is
slowing down, but Sulawesi is the highest

2015 : 1.3%
2016 : 2.0%
2017 : 4.3%
2018*: 3.3% 2015. : 8.2% 2015 : 6.6%
2015 : 3.5% 2016. : 7.4%
2016 : 4.3% Share : 8.2% 2016 : 7.5%
2017 2017 : 7.0% 2017 : 4.9%
2017 : 4.3% 2018*: 6.8%
2018*: 4.6% 2018*: 13.7%
Share : 6.1% Share : 2.4%
Share : 21.7% 2017
2017 2017

2015 : 5.5%
2016 : 5.6%
2017 : 5.6% 2015: 10.3%
2018*: 5.7% 2016: 5.9%
Share : 58.5% 2017: 3.7%
2017 2018*: 2.2%
Share : 3.1%
*Q1-Q3 (January-September) 2017
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Peranan pulau dalam pembentukan PDB
nasional (persen)

2010 2015 2016 2017 2018-1 2018-2 2018-3

Sumatera 23.1 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.5 21.5 21.5
Jawa 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.5 58.7 58.6 58.6
Kalimantan 9.2 8.2 7.9 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1
Bali & Nusa Tenggara 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.0
Sulawesi 4.5 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.3
Maluku & Papua 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5

Kawasan Barat Indonesia 90.4 88.7 88.4 88.4 88.5 88.2 88.2
Kawasan Timur Indonesia 9.6 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.8

Jawa 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.5 58.7 58.6 58.6

Luar Jawa 41.9 41.7 41.5 41.5 41.3 41.4 41.4
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
The Secondary Heart
Tax ratio has declined for the last 6 years in a
row, only single digit in the last two years
% of GDP
21,9
22

20 19,1
18,8

18

16,3
16

14 14,6 13,3

12 11,4
12,4 10,9

9,9
10 10,6 10,5

9,3
8

*Last quarter of 1999/2000 fiscal year plus April-December of 2000 fiscal year.
**January-September (preliminary).
Sources: World Bank for 1972-1999; for 2000-2018: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance (APBN Kita, July edition); GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared
to peers
Percent of GDP
35

30

25

20

15

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sources: World Bank and OECD.

 Indonesia: degree of openness, 1960-2017
Percent of GDP

67,8

61,2
53,7

52,5
49,0

47,7
43,7

38,5
36,6

33,7
31,1

27,7
27,6

27,6
26,1
25,2

24,7

23,9
23,8

23,7
23,1
23,0

20,6

19,7
18,7
13,2
9,9

1960-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016-17

Exports of goods & services Imports of goods & services Total

Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS); and for imports downloaded from
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. Downloaded on August 14, 2017.
 Tradable merana, non-tradable melaju: GDP
growth by sector
Share
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishery 4.59 4.20 4.24 3.77 3.25 3.81 3.91 13.14
Mining and Quarrying 3.02 2.53 0.43 -3.42 1.06 0.69 2.05 7.57
Manufacturing industry 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29 4.27 4.24 20.16
Electricity and gas 10.06 5.23 5.90 0.90 5.39 1.54 5..48 1.19
Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.60 4.61 4.60 0.07
Construction 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22 6.79 6.27 10.38
Wholesale&retail trade, car&motorcycle reparations 5.40 4.81 5.18 2.59 3.93 4.44 5.14 13.01
Transportation and warehousing 7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.74 8.49 7.59 5.41
Accommodation, food and beverages 6.64 6.80 5.77 4.31 4.94 5.55 5.70 2.85
Information and communication 12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.87 9.81 7.80 3.80
Finance and insurance 9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.90 5.48 3.59 4.20
Real estate 7.41 6.54 5.00 4.11 4.30 3.68 3.40 2.79
Business services 7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36 8.44 8.54 1.75
Public adm., defense, & compulsory social security 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.19 2.06 6.98 3.70
Education 8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84 3.66 5.51 3.29
Health and social activities 7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5.00 6.79 6.88 1.07
Other services 5.76 6.40 8.93 8.08 7.80 8.66 8.95 1.76
Gross domestic product 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.07 5.17 100
*Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
 Growth of manufacturing industries, 2011-18

Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

 GDP growth by expenditure (percent)

Share
2016 2017 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 2017

Private consumption 5.01 4.95 4.94 4.95 4.93 4.97 4.95 5.14 5.01 56.13

LNPRT** consumption 6.64 6.91 8.05 8.49 6.02 5.24 8.09 8.71 8.54 1.18

General government consumption -0.14 2.14 2.68 -1.93 3.48 3.81 2.74 5.26 6.28 9.10
Gross domestic fixed capital
formation 4.47 6.15 4.78 5.35 7.08 7.27 7.95 5.87 6.96 32.16

Exports of goods and services -1.57 9.09 8.21 5.76 17.01 8.50 6.09 7.70 7.52 20.37

Less imports of goods and services -2.45 8.06 5.12 2.80 15.46 11.81 12.66 15.17 14.06 19.17

Gross domestic product 5.03 5.07 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 5.06 5.27 5.17 100.0*
* Not included change in inventory.
** LNPRT stands for lembaga non-profit yang melayani rumah tangga (non-profit organization serving the household).
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Dibandingkan negara tetangga, pertumbuhan
konsumsi rumahtangga Indonesia stabil-rendah
Pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga, persen
14

12

10

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines China

Source: Worls Bank.

 Kualitas demokrasi Indonesia lumayan baik,
tertinggi di ASEAN
Liberal democracy index, 2017
1. Norway 0,867
2. Sweden 0,863
3. Estonia 0,860
4. Switzerland 0,853
5. Denmark 0,841
13. France 0,812
14. Germany 0,809
16. United Kingdom 0,806
25. Japan 0,758
31. United States 0,727
34. South Korea 0,713
43. South Africa 0,622
56. Brazil 0,568
63. Timor-Leste 0,510
72. Indonesia 0,475
81. India 0,429
90. Philippines 0,363
92. Singapore 0,357
118. Myanmar 0,255
128. Malaysia 0,210
131. Vietnam 0,195
151. Russia 0,115
157. Thailand 0,101
160. Laos 0,091
162. Cambodia 0,082
167. China 0,058
178. North Korea 0,010

Source: V-DEM Institute, Democracy for All?: V-DEM Annual Democracy Report 2018.
Versi EIU melorot tajam (48→68): lemah untuk
komponen political culture dan civil liberties
Democracy index 2017
8,0 40

7,5
45
7,0
50
6,5

6,0 55

5,5
60
5,0
65
4,5

4,0 70
2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Overall score Electoral process and pluralism

Functioning of government Political participation
Political culture Civil liberties
Rank-RHS
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index, various issues.
Partai pendukung Jokowi (6+2+2)
Partai pendukung Prabowo-Sandi (4+0+2)
 Pemilu & pilpres ibarat pendulum seandainya …
• Pemilu merupakan kontrak
politik baru atau
pembaruan kontrak politik.
• Seandainya nuansa
ideologi pekat, pendulum
akan bergerak ke kiri dan
ke kanan lebih jauh dari
titik tengah (warna hitam).

Source: pepperspectives.com

• Tidak hadir di Indonesia

• Tantangan ke depan: penguatan institusi, reformasi birokrasi, dan
governance.
Disiplin fiskal melonggar & kebijakan tambal sulam

▪ Angka-angka dalam APBN semu: subsidi energi

yang melonjak tidak tampak di APBN, dialihkan ke
Pertamina dan PLN; realokasi anggaran;
pembayaran subsidi ditunda.
▪ Mengatasi defisit perdagangan dengan substitusi
impor yang tentunya butuh waktu panjang.
▪ Nasionalisme dan kedaulatan: Freeport dan
Chevron (Blok Rokan).
▪ Belakangan mulai sadar dan lebih realistis: utang
dan defisit APBN, kemerosotan rupiah, belanja
kurang berkualitas.
▪ State capitalism dan ICOR tinggi.
 The electability of Jokowi-Ma’ruf is
comfortably higher than Prabowo-Sandi

55,9

52,6
46,3
42,5

41,6
37,8
36,3

33,1
32,8

32,7
31,8

Joko Widodo
29,6
31

28,6
28,3

Prabowo Subianto

23,9

23,6
Others
23,4

22,1

22,1

22,1
Do't know/Don't answer

18,2
17,3

17,3
16,5

16,3

16,3

14,7
14,3

14,1
13,8

12,4

11,9
10,9

7,9

Jan'15 Apr'15 Oct'15 Apr'16 Oct'16 Apr'17 Oct'17 Apr'18 Oct'18

Source: Litbang (R&D) Kompas

Overall satisfaction with the government's
performance decline significantly in October 2018
Percent

72,2
70,8
67,4
65,1 65,9 65,3
63,1

53,8 54,3

46,2 45,7

36,9
34,9 34,1 34,7
32,6
29,2
27,8

January April October April October April October April October

2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018
Satisfied Not satisfied
Source: Litbang (R&D) Kompas
 The level of satisfaction in all areas decreased,
the lowest is in the economic field

Jan Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Oct

Field 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018

Politics and security 73.1 69.3 69.6 75.9 75.0 71.2 76.4 73.1

Law enforcement 59.9 43.6 46.4 55.6 50.7 53.2 61.0 55.3

Economy 43.2 33.5 37.3 48.2 52.0 46.1 55,2 50.2

Social welfare 61.1 62.6 56.6 67.0 69.8 65.8 72,8 64.8
Source: Litbang (R&D) Kompas
 Potential for governance problems: pre-crisis

HIGH

Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia

Philippines

LOW
LOW HIGH
(CONCENTRATED) (FRAGMENTED)

DISPERSAL OF DECISION-MAKING POWER

Source: Andrew MacIntyre, The Power of Institutions: Political Architecture and Governance, Ithaca and
London: Cornell University Press, 2003.
 Potential for governance problems: post-crisis

HIGH

Malaysia
Indonesia
 Philippines
Thailand
LOW
LOW HIGH
(CONCENTRATED) (FRAGMENTED)

DISPERSAL OF DECISION-MAKING POWER

Source: Andrew MacIntyre, The Power of Institutions: Political Architecture and Governance, Ithaca and
London: Cornell University Press, 2003.
 Part VII
Economic Prospect 2018-2019
 Policy responses matter: projections of GDP growth of
ASEAN countries
year-on-year, percent
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*
Brunei Darussalam -2.1 -2.5 -0.4 -2.5 0.8 1.5 2.0
Cambodia 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3
Lao PDR 7.8 7.5 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.0
Malaysia 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.3 5.0
Myanmar 8.4 8.0 7.0 5.9 6.8 6.8 7.2
Philippines 7.1 6.2 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.9
Singapore 4.7 3.6 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.1 2.9
Thailand 2.7 0.9 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.0 4.1
Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.8 7.1 6.8
Memo: ASEAN 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.2 5.2 5.2
* Projections.
Source: ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2018, April 2018, and ADO 2017..
 Projections of GDP growth by several agencies

Latest 2014 2015* 2016* 2017*

Agency Published (5.0) (4.9) (5.0) (5.1) 2018** 2019**

Gov’t of Indonesia Aug. 2018 5.2 (+0.2) 5.2 (+0.3) 5.1 (+0.1) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.2 5.3

Bank Indonesia Aug. 2018 5.3 (+0.3) 5.2 (+0.3) 5.2 (+0.2) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.2 5.3

IMF Oct. 2018 5.2 (+0.2) 5.2 (+0.3) 5.0 (0.0) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.1 5.1

World Bank Oct. 2018 5.1 (+0.1) 4.7 (-0.2) 5.1 (+0.1) 5.1 (0.0) 5.2 5.2

ADB Sep. 2018 5.1 (+0.1) 5.0 (+0.1) 5.0 (0.0) 5.1 (0.0) 5.2 5.3

The Economist Oct. 2018 5.1 (+0.1) 4.9 (0.0) 5.0 (0.0) 5.2 (+0.1) 5.2 5.1

Faisal Basri Nov. 2018 5.0 (0.0) 4.9 (0.0) 4.9 (-0.1) 5.0 (-0.1) 5.0 4.9
*As of April-July
** Projection
 Economic growth is far below the
government's target

Average
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019** 2015-19

RPJM target 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 6.94

Actual & projection 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.98

Difference -0.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.5 -3.1 -1.96

*Estimate
**Projection
Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Twitter: @faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri.com
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri