Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth

Strategies in Northeast Asia

JAPAN’s 2nd NATIONAL WORKSHOP
4 November 2010, Tokyo, Japan

APAN’S ongoing activities

in China and Mongolia

Masataka WATANABE

Keio University, Japan

Chairperson of Asia Pacific Adaptation Network
 Asia‐Pacific Adaptation Network
Support for 
Prediction & Adaptation Mainstreaming into 
Knowledge Bank  Alliance  Development Plan

Pilot projects‐ Government
demonstrating 
adaptation measures International Org. Decision
Maker
Good Practice
Generating 
and sharing 
Evaluation of  knowledge  Local
vulnerability UNEP Adaptation  to enhance  Community
Network （through IT
Selection of  adaptive  technology）
technology）
Monitoring & Data base  Adaptation  capacity
Technology
Knowledge 
Distribution   
International
University Organization
private sector

Integrated Assessment Tools
Research Institute
Monitoring Ecosystem Services in Northeast Asia
 Ecosystem Assessment in the Yangtze River Catchment
(MA framework)
Indirect drivers
Positive impact - Population Policies for
- Policy Sustainability
Negative impact

Direct drivers Regulating

Provisioning - Deforestation; Services (ERS)
Services (EPS) - Artificially afforestation; and Supporting
Food production; - Three Gorges Dam; Services (ESS)
Fresh water supply; - Industrial development Flood control;
Power generation; Erosion control;
Navigation. Trade-off Purification of water
quality;
Biodiversity;
Self-maintenance of
Indicators ecosystems.
Eco-efficiency = EPS/ (ERS+ESS)

Decision-makers
 32 Characters of Environmental Policies for
Management of Watershed in China

封山育林 Close mountain and plant trees

退耕还林 Convert cultivated lands to forest
平垸行洪 Make river-bed flat and control flooding
退田还湖 Convert paddy fields to lakes
加固堤防 Make dikes higher and stronger
疏浚河湖 Make flows smooth in rivers and lakes
以工代赈 Develop industries without government help
移民建镇 Build new towns for migrations
 Assessment of Environmental Resources
Grand Observation Station
Paddy land, Dry land, Grass
land, Semi-arid Land
GIS Data-base
Land Use
Hydrological
Meteorological Data
Satellite Data (MODIS)
Ecosystem Service
Stations at Beijing
and Urumuqi
Water Stock
Water/Heat/Element Cycle Model
●Land Process Model
降水量
SiB2
●Saturated-Unsaturated 雪氷 陸面過程
Soil Model 森林域
●Ground-flow Model 表面流
蒸発散
蒸発
Carbon Sequestration
MODFLOW ダム 草原域 都市域
●River-flow Network Model 地下水
湖沼 海域
●Carbon Cycle-BCG Model
農業生産モデル
Food Production Model/DSSAT Environmental Loads
DSSAT Model coupled with Water Cycle Model
estimates food production Crop types
Spring wheat
●Meteorological condition Spring wheat
Winter/Spring wheat
・DEM data Winter wheat – Summer soybean
Winter wheat – Summer maize
Winter wheat – Summer maize
Winter wheat – Summer maize
・Evapo-transpiration
Summer rice – Winter wheat
Summer rice – Winter wheat
Double-cropping rice – Winter wheat
Agriculture Production
Summer rice – Winter wheat
・water intake Double-cropping rice – Winter wheat
Double-cropping rice – Winter wheat
Thrice-cropping rice
Crop types in the agricultural regions (1990s)
 Ground water level in 2002
Changjiang flow rate in 2002
　

80000

70000

60000
（宜昌）
50000
[m ^ 3 / s ]

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 61 121 181 241 301 361

観測値 計算値

Rice and corn production in 2002

Yellow river flow rate in 2002
　

4000

3500

3000 （蘭州）
2500
[m ^ 3 / s ]

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1 61 121 181 241 301 361

観測値 計算値
Elevation (ｍ ) Middle-Stream
Upper-Stream Down-Stream

Yalongjiang
6000
Changqing Yichang Wuhan Nanjing

Minjiang

Lake Poyang
4000

Tuojiang

Jialingjiang

Dongting

Hanjiang
Wujiang

Lake
2 0 0 0 Tuotuo
River Tongtian
River Jinshajiang
0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Distance from the River Source (km)
1910s 1930s 1980s
MODIS（2002.1.8 ）

345
620
427 22.3
376
561
3.41 211
38.2 389
27.9
62.0
69.7

Main Stream
Jialingjiang：
・Catchment area : ～160,000km2 Main Stream
4.15 14.2
・Agricultural land : 50% of the whole area 16.9
・ Total sediment loads from Jialingjiang : 20 % of 36.8 17.2 25.5 Lake
SSthose
Flux atfrom the upper
Changjiang River Changjiang
in 1987 basin Poyang
↓ Million ton/year）
（Unit：
Lake 58.8
2.55 Donting
Main source of sediment production in the
sedimentation
Changjiang basin 3.63
6.78 0.46
 Policy of returning farmland to forest and its effects
on prevention of runoff and sediment loads
Detection of farmland with steep slope value
over a threshold using GIS

No significant effect on flood control

China Government
policy Maximum flood peak value only decreased
Simulation
25°≧ 2.2% in the case of threshold 10°
25°以上
（0.6％ of total area） 20°以上
20°≧（1.5％） in the whole catchment.
↓
Direct runoff easily occurs even in forest area
due to thin soil surface layer ?

15°≧（3.2％） 10°≧（6.3％）
15°以上 10°以上
Distribution of detected farmlands with steep slope
over each threshold to return to forest area
 Policy of returning farmland to forest and its effects
on prevention of runoff and sediment loads
Sediment production Sediment loads

Sedim ent prodcution on land slope　

River bank erosion

A nnualtotalsedim ent loads

160 -4.9% -9.5%
A nnualtotalsedim ent

100
production (109 kg)

140 -17%
-22%
120 80
100

(109 kg)
80 60
60 40
40
20
20
0 0
O riginal ≦25°≦20° ≦15°≦10° O riginal ≦25°≦20°≦15°≦10°

Sediment production could be reduced

according to the increase of threshold
 Flood prevention effect in the Dongting Lake area
by TGD flood control
Flood peaks
warning water level
36

Lake w ater level(m )

D aily averaged 34
Boundary conditions:
32
Observed at Yichang　
30 Q safe(m 3/s)　
45,000
28 50,000
55,000 Qsafe： Upper limitation value of
26 60,000 controlled discharge

Jun Jul A ug S ep
D ate (1998)
*Upper limitation value of controlled discharge ≧ 50,000m3/s：Clear effect not expected
*Upper limitation value =45,000m3/s：Water level decreases largest 1.5m at flood peak,
prevention effect expected to some extent
 Simulation of water levels in TGD for different discharges
180 max．water level of TGD

TG D reservoir w ater level

175
170
165
160
(m )

155
150
145
140
M ay Jun Jul A ug S ep O ct N ov
D ate (1998)
Flood controlw ater level, Q safe(m 3/s)
45,000 50,000
55,000 60,000

・Reservoir water level exceeds max. water level in the case of Qsafe =45,000m3/s

Very Difficult to control large flood like 1998 flood in the middle region
by only TGD → Another measures needed for prevention
 Surface(Pb-210) Ave. of 40 years(Cs137)
Sedimentation rate over past 40 years 20-40 years before: Pb210
Y5-Core 2.0 cm/y 2.8-2.9 cm/y
Depth 14.5 m
Y6-Core 2.2 cm/y 3.5 (2.4-4.5) cm/y
Depth 19.7 m
Y7-Core 1.8 cm/y 4.3-6.6 cm/y
Changjiang Depth 26.8 m
East China
Sea Sedimentation rate in
recent years is about 1/3-
1/2 of the past 20-40 years
average
Possibility of Erosion
Sand Silt Clay

Datong
More than 10,000 reservoirs
Station were constructed in the
Changjiang Basin.
The sediment load has
been decreased before the
completion of the TGD
 １．Increase in sea level rise of 9cm
in the past 40 years (SOA, China）
２．Decrease in river flow due to
climate change and economic growth
(3000m3/s decrease)

Salinity Intrusion into

Changjiang Estuary
Feb. 27, 1999
 During the last 60 years, the global surface
temperature has increased by 0.6ºC, but
the mean air temperature of Mongolia has
increased by 1.8ºC.

Data source: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

Processed by the U.S. NCDC Global Climate at the Glance Mapping System
Zud and Drought Prediction in Hujirt
UK Hardley Center GCM3 SRES A1B

In collaboration with the APN EAWSIM project

 Davaat

Permafrost Monitoring Stations in Mongolia

Nalaikh
Prediction of soil temperature and
permafrost（ Nalaikh ）
 1991-1999
1982-1990

Ojima, Chuluun et al. 2004

Regime shift since 1990: Cashmere

002
Adaptive renewal since 2

Collapse 19
9 9‐2002

t i on 
loit 9a
E x p 99
3 ‐ 1
199
Present administrative-
territorial division
An administrative
territorial division of
Mongolia was
fragmented during the
socialist period of last
century, often breaking
traditional Cultural
Landscapes:

159 sums out of 330 don’t have 1-2

seasonal pastures.
 Adaptation options Implementation
Mechanisms
Community ownership of cultural landscapes by Law on pasture land ownership
traditional pastoral communities or newly emerged
herders’ groups
Reduction of livestock according to carrying To increase meat export and
capacity meat reserve early winter
Limitation of goat increase to reduce overgrazing Government incentives for
herders
Increased hay and fodder production Government support

Protection of water sources and riparian ecosystems- To decrease over-utilization of

natural “green walls” water and riparian ecosystems
Diversification of income through tourism, dairy Regional collaboration and
products, and meat export government support
To enlarge current administrative-territorial units- Local initiatives and government
sums to restore cultural landscapes decision
 Win-win solution: Meat export
 If only 1% of livestock was
exported each year since
1990, then we could have:
 Potential wealth increase
 Potential reduction of land
degradation/desertification
;
 Potential livestock loss
reduction during 1999-
2002 zud and also
livestock loss risk
Current livestock dynamics reduction from future
Potential dynamics with climate disasters.
increased meat export