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DOI: 10.18276/frfu.2016.79-01 s. 13–26
Abstract: The purpose of this article is to investigate the importance of financial ratios derived from finan
cial statements to predict stock price trends in emerging markets. A statistical examination to the prediction
power of 12 financial ratios was tested depending on data of 15 companies distributed on 3 sectors for the
years 2005–2014 in the Kuwaiti financial market. An equation to estimate the stock price in each sector was
built according to the multiple regression model after eliminating non-effective variables with the STEP
WISE method. The results showed that some ratios could give strong positive and significant relationships
to stock price behaviour and trends, the most effective ratios on the stock price for the industrial sector are
ROA, ROE and net profit ratio. Also the most effective ratio on the stock price for the service sector was the
ROA, ROE, P/E and EPS ratio and the same for the investment sector. This study concluded that it could rely
on a set of financial ratios for each sector to predict stock price, the decision maker of such investors can rely
on the financial analysis presented by the financial ratios when making financial and operational decisions.
*
Thomas Arkan, University of Szczecin, Department of Economics, e-mail: danmarkkbh@yahoo.com.
14 Thomas Arkan
it was always used by accountants and financial analysts. Financial ratios were used by
internal and external users for making their economic decisions; including investing, and
performance evaluation decisions. Many financial and accounting models have been devel-
oped over the past few decades. However, the financial ratios still kept their classical and
fundamental power as models or as another important supportive analysis for financial and
planning analysis.
The use of accounting data and financial ratios to explain changes in stock prices is fre-
quently referred to in the literature, using a financial ratio analysis can be largely attributed
to changes in stock prices has often been discussed by academics and financial analysts.
Kendall (1953) observes that stock prices seem to change randomly over time, and he
tested whether a previous price could be used to predict a future price change.
Later, studies expanded to include other predictive variables such as dividend yield,
price to earnings ratio, book-to market ratio, return on equity, and various measures of in-
terest rates that commonly tested to predict stock prices and returns. However, the evidence
is mixed.
Ball and Brown (1968) originally researched the correlation between accounting infor-
mation and stock price. After they empirically studied the correlation between annual report
earnings data and stock price, they found that if a company had excess earnings and then
investors could get an abnormal return. This shows the relationship between accounting
earnings and stock price.
Beaver asserted from another perspective that a company’s financial reporting and ac-
counting information could influence stock price. Beaver found that investors used the de-
clared accounting information when they traded in stocks.
Bernard and Stober, Dechow (1994) and Sloan (1996) respectively empirically studied
the influence of earnings information and operating cash flow information on stock price.
They found that the earnings information is better correlative, but not absolute.
Wright, Ken (1996) in their study entitled: “The role and importance of accounting infor-
mation when making decisions in the stock.” The study examined the role and importance
of accounting information when making decisions in securities in order to raise awareness
of the behaviour of investors.
Torpedo (2001) in his study determined the predictability of the profitability of compa-
nies in the Stock Exchange using their financial ratios. In his own research, he concludes
that a financial ratio analysis can have a high correlation with profitability and predictability
by multiple regression financial ratios, including a profitability test contract. The companies
with low and high profitability were divided into two groups and the results of his research
indicate a high potential for profitability in the projected financial ratios.
Long Chen (2007) investigated the factors affecting the stock price and amount an inves-
tor would pay to buy, and the results suggest that the most impact factor on stock prices is
cash flow.
The Importance of Financial Ratios in Predicting Stock Price Trends... 15
Syed (2010) studied the relationship between financial ratios and stock prices in the me-
tallic and non-metallic minerals industry. The results indicate that the linear and non-linear
relationship between financial ratios and stock prices and the models of type B (without
interception) offer a greater ability to explain the stock price. Quadric nonlinear models are
better than the other models which cannot explain the stock price. The proportion of activity
in the circulation and Profitability ROA, return on capital and the percentage of non-profit
special sales can better explain the stock price
The wide use of this ratio is growing because it is easy to calculate financial ratios, and
for being a quantitative measure to judge the internal units, also the financial ratios provide
basic indicators for judging performance without the need to provide some financial details.
In general, the extent and depth of financial statement analysis is determined by user re-
quirements, On the other hand an analyst about to make a decision whether to invest in a firm
is interested in its future performance. The technique involves the calculation of a number
of ratio indicators which attempt to express the relationships which exist between key fi-
nancial variables which appear principally in the published financial statements. The values
for individual ratios are then compared with an appropriate standard to ascertain whether
they are satisfactory or otherwise. Three main types of comparisons are widely employed:
(1) Cross sectional comparison:
(a) intra-industry – then the subject firm is compared with other firms in the same indu-
stry. The industry average for each ratio is the standard employed.
(b) Inter-industry – the subject firm is compared with other firms in different industries,
and the results of other firms or the averages of other industries are the standards em-
ployed. This approach is fraught with difficulty since the differing risk structures of
industries make unadjusted raw results difficult to compare.
(2) Intertemporal comparison – intra-firm – the subject firm’s ratios are compared across
time for the identification of trends or other relationships.
(3) Arbitrary standards comparison – ratios of the subject firm are rated against “tradi-
tional” standards.
I developed a chart to show the recent development of financial ratios analysis and fac-
tors effects on it. The qualitative characteristics of accounting information are the corner-
stone of starting point in financial analysis. The rest of modern analysis in advanced modern
systems depends on pre-formulated model that use this information either internally or ex-
ternally by investors or other parties.
There is a vast amount of information that can be attained by analysing and break-
ing down the financial statements. When analysing the financial statements of companies
a large number of financial ratios could be used, these ratios can be divided into several
groups and each group studies a certain phenomenon depending on the intended purpose of
the financial analysis for example, short-term debt holders focusing on the study of specific
percentages differ from the ratios that are focused on and studied by owners’ Long-term
debt, the financial ratios are divided into five categories that all highlight different aspects
of a company’s financial and operational performance. These categories represent measures
of liquidity, profitability, debt, operating and investment valuation. Each category is de-
scribed in detail shown below: Brigham (2005); Ross (1999).
The Importance of Financial Ratios in Predicting Stock Price Trends... 17
debt/equity ratio, the long-term debt ratio, the times interest earned ratio, the fixed charge
coverage ratio, and the cash coverage ratio.
Table 1
Main groups and sub-groups of financial ratios
This captures the relationship between (Sales – COGS) ÷ Sales Gross Margin Ratio
sales and manufacturing (or merchan-
dising) costs. (Also, called gross profit
margin.)
Net profit After Tax÷Net Sales Net Profit Ratio
Grope 5: Valuation ratios (Market value ratios)
Earnings per share Ratio (EPS)
Measure of accounting-based equity (Stock Price x Number of Shares Out- Market-to-book
standing) ÷ Total Stockholders’ Equity
Measure of market premium paid for Stock Price / EPS Price Earnings Ratio (PE)
earnings and future expectations
Equity or net assets, as measured on Total Stockholders’ Equity ÷ Number Book Value Per Share
the balance sheet of Shares Outstanding
Source: research collection from various references listed in bibliography.
20 Thomas Arkan
Table 2 shows the results of a Statistical test of the study sample which is divided into 3
sectors: industrial, services and financial.
Table 2
Statistical analysis for dependent and independent variables for the sample test
Correlation analysis between dependent and independent variables in the model for different Sectors
Sectors Industrial Com Services Com Investment Com
Ratios/statistics r r2 Sig r r2 Sig r r2 Sig
Current Ratio –0.5 25.08 0.013 –0.323 10.41 0.083 0.779 60.6 0.00
ROA 0.679 46.19 0.00 0.404 16.24 0.0391 0.483 23.29 0.017
ROE 0.809 65.21 0.00 0.394 15.43 0.044 0.465 21.74 0.0191
Net Profit % 0.74 54.67 0.00 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Short T Debt/Equity 0.738 54.26 0.00 0.274 7.51 0.122 –0.407 16.51 0.039
Assets Turn over 0.248 6.1 0.148 –0.376 14.11 0.056 ---- ---- ----
Current Assets Turn over 0.252 6.32 0.144 –0.009 0.011 0.488 ---- ---- ----
Fixed Assets Turn over 0.836 69.67 0.00 –0.0456 20.72 0.023 ---- ---- ----
EPS 0.188 3.5 0.216 0.531 28.19 0.009 0.469 21.92 0.0191
Share Market V/ Book V 0.91 82.6 0.00 0.859 73.54 0.00 0.984 96.68 0.000
P/E –0.349 12.11 0.067 0.421 17.65 0.034 0.151 2.241 0.272
Book V per Share 0.819 66.97 0.00 0.526 27.65 0.0091 0.476 22.61 0.018
Total debits/equity ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- –0.338 11.4 0.074
Contribution Margin % ---- ---- ---- 0.415 17.13 0.035 ---- ---- ----
Correlation statistically significant at 0.05.
Source: research findings.
From the Table 2 the statistical analysis results can be seen below:
1. Industrial sector companies
There is no significant statistical positive relation between current ratio and stock price
where Sig (0.013) is less than the confidence degree at (0.05). The correlation is negative at
(0.5), the R2 (25.08) which means the independent variable (current ratio) was able to ex-
plain only 25.08% from the behaviour of the dependent variable and (74.92%) of the stock
trend affected by other variables.
There is a significant positive relationship between ROA and stock price at R (0.679) and
Sig (0.00), where R2 (46.19%) which explains also a wide range of stock trends.
Also there is a positive significant relationship between ROE and stock price where this
variable was able to explain (65.21%) of stock price behaviour in the market.
Also there are significant positive relationships between each of the net profit ratios,
current debt to equity ratio, fixed assets turnover ratio, market to book value ratio and book
value ratio with stock price trend approved by a degree of the calculated Sig compared with
the degree of confidence (I depend on it in the analysis).
The Importance of Financial Ratios in Predicting Stock Price Trends... 23
The other ratios did not show a significant relationship between ratio and stock price
such total assets as turnover, current assets turnover ratio, EPS and P/E ratio. The correla-
tion of these factors with stock price was weak and its ability to explain stock trends was
poor also.
By using SPSS software with Stepwise method shows only independent significant vari-
ables (ratios) that have an effect on stock price behaviour in the multiple regression model to
get an equation presents the relationship between dependent and independent variables the
results reveal that only market to book value ratio and book value ratio have a strong cor-
relation with stock price at R (0.99 ) and R 2 (99.2%) with the variance analysis of regression
of the F (1040.1) and Sig (0.00) which refer to a positive significant relation between these
dependent variables and stock price. The T-test shows values of {(–18.402), (26.2) and 18.8)}
for constant, X1 and X2 respectively. The estimated equation to predict stock price for this
sector are:
Estimated stock price = –1.86 + 1.7x1 + 1.18x2,
where:
x1 .– .market to book value ratio,
x2 .– .book value ratio.
Conclusions
From the practical side and hypothesis test I can conclude some important points that can
be seen below:
1. The new approach of the financial analysis had passed the old criticism to the func-
tion of it. The approach focusing on the integrity between accounting as an informa-
tion system (qualitative characteristics of accounting information), tools of analysis,
internal and external environment. The modern approach relay on the integrity be-
tween accounting, maths, and statistics to get the desired goals.
2. Top management, financial analysts and investors can rely on a specified set of fi-
nancial ratios in their evaluation for each financial and operational performance of
companies and when making decisions.
3. To perform a financial analysis process in an accurate and prices way which is desired
by investors and analysts, it requires the presence of multiple criteria to measure per-
formance and compare the results by others in the same sector.
The Importance of Financial Ratios in Predicting Stock Price Trends... 25
4. The results of the financial ratio analysis with statistical methods shows that the prof-
itability ratios group and valuation ratios group have a significant effect on stock
prices. The combination of the financial ratios enhances stock price predictability.
5. In the industry sector for Kuwaiti companies in the financial market, the power ability
of financial ratios to predict the stock price trend was tested using a statistical analysis
with a multiple linear regression for the years between (2005–2014), 12 financial ra-
tios were tested, the test results showed that there were (2) variables (market to book
value and book value ratio) have a statistically significant stock price and thus can
identify the model to predict the price of the share of the industrial sector.
6. In the services sector also a 12 financial ratio was tested for the years between (2015–
2014), only 4 ratios passed the test that would affect the prediction of the stock price.
A market to book value ratio, PE ratio, short term liabilities to equity ratio and net
profit ratio have the most power influence in the prediction equation.
7. In the investment sector the market to book value ratio, EPS ratio, ROE ratio and
book value ratio were found a most effective variable in predicting the future value of
the stock price prediction equation.
8. This study was compatible with some universal studies in its analysis and the results
found out that there is a common ratio between our study and others that would have
an affect stock price prediction and influences such a market to the book value ratio,
book value ratio, ROE, PE, EPS and Net Income Ratio.
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Citation
Arkan T. (2016). The Importance of Financial Ratios in Predicting Stock Price Trends: A Case Study in Emerging
Markets. Finanse, Rynki Finansowe, Ubezpieczenia, 1 (79), 13–26; www.wneiz.pl/frfu.