Abdullah karim

CMS:274134
Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
PROBLEM 4: Investigating the Long-term Effectiveness
A set of roughness data was collected from a highway agency for National Highway Road Sections [See
Notes on LMS (Dataset for HW-2]. A higher roughness indicates a lower performance (poorer condition).
(a) Preliminary diagnostics. Using the cross-sectional data for the year 2001 only, plot a scatter diagram
of the performance data in MS Excel. Using the first section only (Section R-28095 at N-55), plot a time
series scatter plot for the data. Why does roughness generally increase with age?
(b) Outliers: From your first plot in (a), determine visually which observation seems to be an outlier. [Note:
For a bi-variate (thus two-dimensional) dataset such as this, it is easy to visually identify outliers.
However, for multi-variate problems (that is, having several variables and thus is multi-dimensional), this
cannot be done visually, and an appropriate technique must be used].
Name a statistical technique or rule-of-thumb that could be used to identify outliers in a multivariate
dataset. What could be the engineering reason for the outlying observation in our
dataset?
(c) Preliminary Modeling (Cross sectional model)
Using data for the year 2001 only, and MS Excel, fit the data to the first five functional forms that are
available by default in MS Excel. [Hint: To do this, highlight all the points by right clicking on one of them
and then left click on “Add Trendline”. Also click “Display equation on chart” and “Display R2”. Write each
full functional form (and R2) on your homework sheet. For each functional form, use the model to estimate
the expected condition of a similar pavement (Section R-99765 at N-65) in that state (not used in the
model) that is 20 years old. Tabulate your answers. Later, Mr. Salman an engineer in NHA, informs
you that the true condition of Section R-99765 at N-65 is 180 units. On the basis of this information,
which of the functional forms did the best job of estimation? If there were several pavements sections
instead of just Section R-99765 at N-65, explain, with a chart or table/equation, how you would do this.
Print and submit your Excel spreadsheet showing all the model plots on a single graph or on separate
graphs.
(d) Preliminary Model (Time Series Model)
Using the time series data entries develop the best functional form for the model with all the sections
and indicate the R2. What model specification would you adopt? Using your model, predict the condition of
that pavement section at NHS (or other similar pavement) at age 10 years.

Solution:
(a) Preliminary diagnostics.

 Scatter plot for cross-sectional data for the year 2001

Age Vs Roughness
120

100

80
Roughness

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
  Scatter plot for Section R-28095 at N-55

Age Vs Roughness y = -0.1527x2 + 8.9788x + 54.095

R² = 0.9937
120

100

80
Roughness

60

40

20

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Age

Roughness can arise from a number of causes; most often however it is from pavement distress due to
structural deformation. ... Safety, especially during wet conditions can be linked to a loss of surface friction
between the tire and the pavement surface.

(b) Outliers:
2001
Age Roughness
2 45.49

Visually only one Outlier can be seen in the data.

Name to identify outliers in a multivariate:

Multivariate outliers can be identified with the use of Mahala Nobis distance.
Multivariate outliers can also be recognized using leverage, discrepancy, and influence.

Reason for the outlying observation

 Data entry errors (human errors)

 Measurement errors (instrument errors)
 Experimental errors (data extraction or experiment planning/executing errors)
 Intentional (dummy outliers made to test detection methods)
 Data processing errors (data manipulation or data set unintended mutations)
 Sampling errors (extracting or mixing data from wrong or various sources)
 Natural (not an error, novelties in data)

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
 (c) Preliminary Modeling (Cross sectional model)

Polynomial Form y = 5.2779x + 54.699

R² = 0.8312
Age Vs Roughness
120

100

80
Roughness

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Linear form y = -0.3234x2 + 9.1589x + 46.29

R² = 0.8556
Age Vs Roughness
120

100

80
Roughness

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
 Polynomial form Linear form
X= 20 Y= 99.208 X= 20 Y= 160.257

Logarithmic Form y = 23.166ln(x) + 49.506

R² = 0.8083
Age Vs Roughness
120

100

80
Roughness

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Exponential Form y = 56.308e0.0667x

Age Vs Roughness R² = 0.7336

140

120

100
Roughness

80

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
 Exponential Form Logarithmic form
X= 20 Y= 214 X= 20 Y= 118.905134

Power Form y = 52.218x0.2991

R² = 0.7435
Age Vs Roughness
120

100

80
Roughness

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Power Form
X= 20 Y= 130

Explanation:

Linear function gives us the predicted condition of Section R-99765 at N-65 is 160 units. On the basis of
this information, linear functional forms did the best job of estimation, as highlighted above.

If there were several pavements sections instead of just Section R-99765 at N-65, we use only linear
function to predict the roughness with respect to Age of the pavement because from the above question, its
clear to us that the true and predicted condition is approximately same on linear function.

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
(d) Preliminary Model (Time Series Model)

In all section the time series Model is the best function among all linear function is R-24410_N_40, selected
on the bases of R2.

R-24410_N_40 y = 7.91x + 43.3

R² = 0.9929
140

120

100
Roughness

80

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Age

Predicting the condition of that pavement section at NHS (or other similar pavement) at age 10 years.

X= 10 Y= 121.4

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
 Problem 5:
Investigating the Short-term Effectiveness, the data provided on the course folder (Dataset for HW-2) provides the
effectiveness of chip sealing treatment applied at a number of distinct pavement sections on State Roads 13, 63, and
US Road 231.
(a) Develop a model to explain the relationship between the treatment effectiveness and at most four other influential
variables (excluding functional class).
(b) Does the initial pavement asset condition significantly influence the effectiveness of the chip seal treatment? As an
asset manager, what policy implications could be derived using your plot?
(c) What additional data could have been useful in yielding further insights into the effectiveness of this treatment?
Solution:
(a) Develop a model to explain the relationship between the treatment effectiveness and at most four other
influential variables (excluding functional class).

Performance Jump- CHIP Treatment Performance Jump- SAND Treatment

5.00 3.75
y = 1.1408x - 0.4922 3.70 y = 0.9354x + 0.2013
4.00
R² = 0.8837 3.65 R² = 0.8407
3.00
DRR
DRR

3.60
2.00 3.55
1.00 3.50
0.00 3.45
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.80
IPC IPC

Performance Jump- CHIP Treatment Performance Jump- SAND Treatment

5.00 3.75
4.00 y = 1.1408x - 0.4922 3.70
R² = 0.8837 y = 0.9354x + 0.2013
3.00 3.65
R² = 0.8407
DRR

DRR

3.60
2.00
3.55
1.00 3.50
0.00 3.45
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.80
IPC IPC

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
 Performance Jump- Central Region Performance Jump- Nortern Region
5.00 3.75
4.00 3.70 y = 2.7389ln(x) + 0.0864
y = 1.1307x - 0.4655
R² = 0.8721 3.65 R² = 0.7411
3.00 3.60
DRR

DRR
2.00 3.55
3.50
1.00
3.45
0.00 3.40
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.75 3.80
IPC IPC

Performance Jump- SR13 Road Performance Jump- SR63 Road

5.00 3.50
3.00
4.00
y = 1.1241x - 0.4725 2.50
3.00 R² = 0.9447
2.00
DRR

DRR

2.00 1.50 y = 2.0278x - 3.3271

1.00 R² = 0.9763
1.00
0.50
0.00 0.00
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 3.30
IPC IPC

Performance Jump- US231 Road

5.00

4.00

3.00 y = 0.989x + 0.234

DRR

R² = 0.9947
2.00

1.00

0.00
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00
IPC

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134
 (b) Does the initial pavement asset condition significantly influence the effectiveness of the chip seal
treatment? As an asset manager, what policy implications could be derived using your plot?

Effectiveness in relation to the initial pavement condition depends on the measure of effectiveness used:
pavements in relatively poor condition were generally associated with higher performance jumps but lower
reductions in their rates of deterioration. This implies that the greater benefits of chip seal on relatively good
pavements, compared to relatively poor pavements, are observed particularly when considered over an
extended period of time. On the other hand, pavements in relatively good condition were generally associated
with lower performance jumps but greater reductions in their deterioration rates.

(c) What additional data could have been useful in yielding further insights into the effectiveness of
this treatment?
Hypothesis Test to Ascertain whether the Treatment was Effective
- Select level of confidence
- Find out whether the effectiveness values for the treated assets are significantly greater than zero.
- Reported values of the performance indicators are average values of several constituent assets.
- Thus, the distribution of the effectiveness can be considered as a statistical sampling distribution of means.
- Therefore, the hypothesis can be formulated as follows:

H0: μPJ ≤ 0 (there was no significant effectiveness upon treatment)

H1: μPJ > 0 (there was a significant effectiveness upon treatment)

This i s a 1-sided hypothesis test with the “rejection region” in the upper tail. Assuming a normal
distribution of the means of the entire population, the critical value of the test statistic is given by:
Z (for 95% confidence, for example, this = Z = 1.645). Also, the calculated value of the test statistic
α 0.05
is given by:

Z* = (μ
PJ – 0)/(σ/√n) , where σ is the standard deviation, and n is the sample size, μPJ is the mean value
of the effectiveness measure.

CONCLUSION: If Z* falls in the rejection region, we reject the null hypothesis. In that case
we conclude that the treatment was effective However, if Z* does not fall in the rejection region, then
we fail to reject the null hypothesis -- there is no evidence that the treatment was effective.

Abdullah karim
CMS:274134