Major Powers

in the Indo-Pacific
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation Prepared for
Australia-Viet Nam Track 1.5 Dialogue
Hanoi, May 27, 2019
 Introduction
Regional Order in the Indo-Pacific
Balance of
Major Power Five
Powers variables
play a Major International interact
Powers Law
special role to shape
in shaping regional
regional order
Force &
order Coercion
Diplomacy
 China: ‘Period of Strategic Opportunity’
• Regional focus
• Taiwan main priority
• 2nd island chain, East China Sea, South China Sea
• Chinese military planners have reached critical point of
confidence they can match competitors in combat
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
• Expanding global interests
• Sea lines of communications and port access
 United States: Free and Open Indo-Pacific

• U.S. National Security Strategy & National Defense Strategy

• Networked alliances and strategic partners
• China and Russia as revisionist powers and strategic competitors
• Free and Open Indo-Pacific
• Freedom of navigation, free trade, finance to compete with BRI
• US National Defense Authorization Act of 2019
• Funding for whole-of-government pushback against China’s
economic, security and political challenges
 Trump’s Transactional Foreign Policy
US National Security
Trump addresses issues
Strategy & Defense
above the line on a
Strategy implemented
transactional basis
below the line

John Bolton Patrick Shanahan Mike Pompeo

National Security Advisor A/Defense Secretary Secretary of State
 Other Major Powers
• Japan
• US alliance cornerstone, alignment of strategy and guidelines
• Cyber attack could invoke Article V of Security Treaty
• Increased regional political and expansive military role
• India
• Focus on Pakistan, land border with China and West Indian Ocean
• Closer strategic relationship with the U.S.
• Russia
• Collaboration with China vis-à-vis U.S.
 Rules-Based Order
• UN Sanctions on North Korea
• Ship-to-ship transfers, illicit trade
• UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
• Arbitral Tribunal Award moribund; China and historical rights
• World Trade Organisation
• Dispute settlement, national security clause, sanctions and
restrictions
• Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership
• Membership expansion?
 Diplomacy
• Trade disputes, tariffs and currency manipulation
• U.S-China, U.S.-Japan, U.S.-Viet Nam
• Denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula
• Bilateral U.S.- DPRK
• Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
• Multilateral China and 10 ASEAN members
• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
• Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement for the Indo-Pacific?
 Force and Coercion
• North Korea
• Continued production of fissile material, rockets, short range ballistic missiles
• Militarisation - China
• Taiwan
• Senkaku Islands and South China Sea (grey area short of force)
• Militarisation - United States
• Increased defence spending
• Modernisation of nuclear forces
• Continuous naval and bomber presence, FONOPS in South China Sea,
combined naval exercises (US, Japan, india)
• Regional force modernization – arms buildup
 Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific
Net Assessment
• China is the predominate regional economic power
• U.S. and Japan remain strongly engaged – trade, investment
• U.S. is the predominate military power but its relative
military power is being challenged by China’s rise
• 4.0 Technology – AI, computational, space and cyber – will be crucial
• ’Multiplex’ regional order
• elements of the liberal order will continue, but will be subsumed in a complex
of multiple, crosscutting international relationships (Amitav Acharya)
• Strategic rivalry will lead to renewed confrontation in the maritime domain
 Major Powers
in the Indo-Pacific
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation Prepared for
Australia-Viet Nam Track 1.5 Dialogue
Hanoi, May 27, 2019