We don't need help to derive the answer when there are

only two possibilities. However, as the possibilities in-

crease, we do, and we can devise a formula that will help
us reason and provide a short cut.
Formula:
x = number of ways a favorable outcome can occur
y = number of ways an unfavorable outcome can occur
N = total number of possible events (x + y)
P = probability of success

Probability of favorable outcome:

P = x/x + y = x/N
46. Evelynne at the Well: 1/4 or 25%. Here are the
possibilities:
Merlin's Coin Evelynne's Coin
heads tails
tails tails
tails heads
heads heads
The chance of two heads coming up is one of four pos-
sibilities. Again, we don't need the formula for finding the
answer to such a simple problem, but let's take a look at
how it works. It's easier to understand a formula, when
vou're not dependent on it for the solution.

45. The Well of Wisdom: 1/2 or a 50% chance. A coin has

two sides. When it falls, one side or the other—either the
head or tail—will face upwards, with each side equally
likely. The chance of the tossed coin showing heads is one The probability of Merlin and Evelynne both pitching
of two possibilities. heads is one in four.