4.

PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA

PRECIPITACIONES MÁXIMAS POR AÑO

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Pmax 24h por

Año
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre año
1985 10.6 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.9 6.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 13.3 6.0 0.0 13.3
1986 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 9.9 6.6 2.0 9.2 8.0 17.2 17.2
1987 13.5 14.9 5.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 4.7 0.0 1.5 8.0 7.8 14.9
1988 15.5 21.3 13.7 11.9 0.0 1.2 0.0 3.0 10.5 0.0 4.5 15.5 21.3
1989 15.7 17.6 14.2 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 5.8 1.3 0.0 17.6
1990 11.9 5.4 0.0 3.9 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 20.1 13.1 20.1
1991 7.8 18.7 17.6 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 4.7 3.0 6.1 18.7
1992 3.1 10.9 10.4 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 6.5 8.2 10.9
1993 19.5 21.3 5.8 6.4 2.8 0.0 0.7 1.5 7.5 10.1 10.3 12.6 21.3
1994 13.3 17.4 27.0 12.3 4.6 3.9 0.5 4.4 4.8 6.8 15.2 14.0 27.0
1995 6.1 21.2 12.6 12.5 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.6 4.9 10.8 22.3 22.3
1996 8.0 14.3 7.3 18.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 9.2 8.5 9.2 18.5
1997 9.7 18.9 7.2 5.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 1.1 9.7 16.7 6.2 12.5 18.9
1998 14.4 18.5 17.5 9.1 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.1 14.4 14.0 18.5 14.5 18.5
1999 13.4 26.5 13.4 13.3 9.7 2.1 0.0 3.1 6.7 11.7 19.1 17.2 26.5
2000 13.4 14.4 24.1 3.8 5.7 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.3 10.5 11.9 16.4 24.1
2001 18.6 16.4 18.5 15.1 5.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.9 8.8 14.6 10.7 18.6
2002 18.4 13.0 13.7 20.0 6.2 3.2 1.3 0.7 7.6 9.5 8.9 15.5 20.0
2003 20.0 22.2 23.2 11.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 16.2 1.8 11.5 23.2
2004 9.5 16.7 17.5 11.6 11.4 5.2 1.7 0.0 6.9 13.6 13.8 16.5 17.5
2005 13.7 11.8 11.8 3.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 5.7 6.2 10.8 13.7
2006 0.0 11.5 12.7 5.9 0.0 2.5 0.0 4.9 3.3 5.5 21.2 15.5 21.2
2007 23.0 53.0 17.8 8.9 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.5 7.8 11.8 53.0
2008 24.0 12.9 14.1 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.1 4.3 13.8 24.0
2009 12.5 19.2 13.2 6.1 7.0 0.0 0.2 4.7 2.9 8.2 12.4 8.1 19.2
2010 12.5 9.2 13.0 5.2 1.6 4.3 0.0 0.8 1.1 6.5 9.6 12.0 13.0
2011 18.1 18.8 12.5 14.9 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 4.5 12.7 12.5 18.8
2012 8.1 23.5 18.7 16.4 7.1 1.2 0.2 0.5 7.5 9.9 11.6 0.0 23.5
2013 11.9 17.5 24.7 14.0 7.3 0.3 1.5 8.2 3.7 3.9 11.2 15.1 24.7
2014 18.2 18.2
Pmax 53.0
Los datos fueron procesados con la plantilla de la Ing. Belinda y se obtuvieron las precipitaciones
máximas por año.
CUADRO RESUMEN

Pmax 24h
Año
por año
1964 15.9
1965 14.9
1966 17.1
1967 16.7
1968 12.8
1969 12.0
1970 31.7
1971 23.3
1972 18.1
1973 25.2
1974 11.9
1975 10.8
1976 15.8
1977 35.2
1978 7.8
1979 12.3
1980 8.8
1981 12.5
1982 9.5
1983 25.0
1984 21.5
1985 19.8
1986 27.2
1987 20.9
1988 12.3
1989 10.7
1990 10.6
1991 17.6
1992 30.5
1993 30.3
1994 15.5
1995 22.3
1996 13.6
1997 9.5
1998 21.9
1999 19.8
2000 14.3
2001 16.2
2002 15.7
2003 19.5
2004 18.0
2005 21.5
2006 14.3
2007 16.6
2008 16.5
2009 23.1
2010 17.0
2011 14.5
2012 19.8
2013 21.3
2014 12.2
2015 21.3
Pmax 35.2
4.1. ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO

4.1.1. DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

T (años) P w Z P
2 0.50000 1.177 0.000 17.752
2.3 0.43478 1.291 0.164 18.765
10 0.10000 2.146 1.282 25.678
μ = 17.75 30 0.03333 2.608 1.834 29.096
σ = 38.25 35 0.02857 2.667 1.903 29.518
S = 6.18 50 0.02000 2.797 2.054 30.456
71 0.01408 2.920 2.195 31.329
100 0.01000 3.035 2.327 32.141
140 0.00714 3.144 2.450 32.906
175 0.00571 3.214 2.530 33.396
500 0.00200 3.526 2.879 35.553

4.1.2. DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG NORMAL

T (años) P w Z LOG(P) P
2 0.50000 1.177 0.000 1.224 16.751
2.3 0.43478 1.291 0.164 1.249 17.726
10 0.10000 2.146 1.282 1.416 26.072
30 0.03333 2.608 1.834 1.499 31.550
γ = 1.224 35 0.02857 2.667 1.903 1.509 32.303
φ = 0.150 50 0.02000 2.797 2.054 1.532 34.038
71 0.01408 2.920 2.195 1.553 35.737
100 0.01000 3.035 2.327 1.573 37.395
140 0.00714 3.144 2.450 1.591 39.026
175 0.00571 3.214 2.530 1.603 40.109
500 0.00200 3.526 2.879 1.656 45.239

4.1.3. DISTRIBUCIÓN DE GUMBEL

T (años) P(X≤x) P
2 0.50000 16.781
2.3 0.56522 17.815
μy = 0.54926 10 0.90000 26.792
σy = 1.1637 30 0.96667 32.818
35 0.97143 33.650
N = 52 50 0.98000 35.569
α = 0.188 71 0.98592 37.449
100 0.99000 39.280
β = 14.833
140 0.99286 41.075
175 0.99429 42.265
500 0.99800 47.854
4.1.4. DISTRIBUCIÓN DE PEARSON III

T (años) P w Z K P
2 0.50000 1.177 0.000 -0.129 16.951
2.3 0.43478 1.291 0.164 0.032 17.951
10 0.10000 2.146 1.282 1.333 25.996
30 0.03333 2.608 1.834 2.113 30.820
N = 52
35 0.02857 2.667 1.903 2.216 31.458
Ag = 0.791 50 0.02000 2.797 2.054 2.451 32.907
X = 0.132 71 0.01408 2.920 2.195 2.676 34.299
100 0.01000 3.035 2.327 2.891 35.632
140 0.00714 3.144 2.450 3.099 36.919
175 0.00571 3.214 2.530 3.236 37.761
500 0.00200 3.526 2.879 3.861 41.629

4.1.5. DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG PEARSON III

T (años) P w Z K LOG(P) P
γ = 1.224
φ = 0.150
2 0.50000 1.177 0.000 0.004 1.225 16.773
2.3 0.43478 1.291 0.164 0.168 1.249 17.749
10 0.10000 2.146 1.282 1.279 1.416 26.050
N = 52
30 0.03333 2.608 1.834 1.825 1.498 31.453
Ag = -0.023
35 0.02857 2.667 1.903 1.893 1.508 32.193
X = -0.004
50 0.02000 2.797 2.054 2.042 1.530 33.895
71 0.01408 2.920 2.195 2.181 1.551 35.560
100 0.01000 3.035 2.327 2.310 1.570 37.181
140 0.00714 3.144 2.450 2.432 1.589 38.773
175 0.00571 3.214 2.530 2.509 1.600 39.828
500 0.00200 3.526 2.879 2.851 1.651 44.814
4.2. PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE

4.2.1. SMIRNOV – KOLMOGOROV

4.2.1.1. DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

m P Prob(P) F(Z) Abs(F-P) μ = 17.752

1 35.2 0.981 0.998 0.016
2 31.7 0.962 0.988 0.026 S = 6.184
3 30.5 0.943 0.980 0.037
N = 52
4 30.3 0.925 0.979 0.054
5 27.2 0.906 0.937 0.031
6 25.2 0.887 0.886 0.001 ∆t = 0.189
7 25 0.868 0.879 0.011
∆c = 0.089 Si
8 23.3 0.849 0.815 0.034
9 23.1 0.830 0.806 0.024
10 22.3 0.811 0.769 0.042
11 21.9 0.792 0.749 0.044
12 21.5 0.774 0.728 0.046
13 21.5 0.755 0.728 0.027
14 21.3 0.736 0.717 0.019
15 21.3 0.717 0.717 0.000
16 20.9 0.698 0.695 0.003
17 19.8 0.679 0.630 0.050
18 19.8 0.660 0.630 0.031
19 19.8 0.642 0.630 0.012
20 19.5 0.623 0.611 0.011
21 18.1 0.604 0.522 0.081
22 18 0.585 0.516 0.069
23 17.6 0.566 0.490 0.076
24 17.1 0.547 0.458 0.089
25 17 0.528 0.452 0.077
26 16.7 0.509 0.432 0.077
27 16.6 0.491 0.426 0.064
28 16.5 0.472 0.420 0.052
29 16.2 0.453 0.401 0.052
30 15.9 0.434 0.382 0.052
31 15.8 0.415 0.376 0.039
32 15.7 0.396 0.370 0.026
33 15.5 0.377 0.358 0.019
34 14.9 0.358 0.322 0.036
35 14.5 0.340 0.300 0.040
36 14.3 0.321 0.288 0.032
37 14.3 0.302 0.288 0.014
38 13.6 0.283 0.251 0.032
39 12.8 0.264 0.212 0.053
40 12.5 0.245 0.198 0.047
41 12.3 0.226 0.189 0.037
42 12.3 0.208 0.189 0.019
43 12.2 0.189 0.185 0.004
44 12 0.170 0.176 0.006
45 11.9 0.151 0.172 0.021
46 10.8 0.132 0.130 0.002
47 10.7 0.113 0.127 0.014
48 10.6 0.094 0.124 0.029
49 9.5 0.075 0.091 0.016
50 9.5 0.057 0.091 0.034
51 8.8 0.038 0.074 0.036
52 7.8 0.019 0.054 0.035
4.2.1.2. DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG NORMAL

m P LN(P) Prob(P) F(Z) Abs(F-P) γ = 2.818

1 35.2 3.561 0.981 0.984 0.003
2 31.7 3.456 0.962 0.968 0.005 φ = 0.345
3 30.5 3.418 0.943 0.959 0.015
4 30.3 3.411 0.925 0.957 0.032
5 27.2 3.303 0.906 0.920 0.014
∆t = 0.189
6 25.2 3.227 0.887 0.882 0.005
∆c = 0.047 Si
7 25 3.219 0.868 0.877 0.009
8 23.3 3.148 0.849 0.830 0.019
9 23.1 3.140 0.830 0.824 0.006
10 22.3 3.105 0.811 0.796 0.015
11 21.9 3.086 0.792 0.781 0.011
12 21.5 3.068 0.774 0.765 0.008
13 21.5 3.068 0.755 0.765 0.010
14 21.3 3.059 0.736 0.757 0.021
15 21.3 3.059 0.717 0.757 0.040
16 20.9 3.040 0.698 0.739 0.041
17 19.8 2.986 0.679 0.686 0.007
18 19.8 2.986 0.660 0.686 0.026
19 19.8 2.986 0.642 0.686 0.044
20 19.5 2.970 0.623 0.670 0.047
21 18.1 2.896 0.604 0.589 0.015
22 18 2.890 0.585 0.582 0.002
23 17.6 2.868 0.566 0.557 0.009
24 17.1 2.839 0.547 0.524 0.023
25 17 2.833 0.528 0.517 0.011
26 16.7 2.815 0.509 0.496 0.013
27 16.6 2.809 0.491 0.490 0.001
28 16.5 2.803 0.472 0.483 0.011
29 16.2 2.785 0.453 0.461 0.009
30 15.9 2.766 0.434 0.440 0.006
31 15.8 2.760 0.415 0.433 0.018
32 15.7 2.754 0.396 0.426 0.029
33 15.5 2.741 0.377 0.411 0.034
34 14.9 2.701 0.358 0.367 0.009
35 14.5 2.674 0.340 0.338 0.002
36 14.3 2.660 0.321 0.323 0.003
37 14.3 2.660 0.302 0.323 0.021
38 13.6 2.610 0.283 0.273 0.010
39 12.8 2.549 0.264 0.218 0.046
40 12.5 2.526 0.245 0.198 0.047
41 12.3 2.510 0.226 0.185 0.041
42 12.3 2.510 0.208 0.185 0.022
43 12.2 2.501 0.189 0.179 0.010
44 12 2.485 0.170 0.167 0.003
45 11.9 2.477 0.151 0.161 0.010
46 10.8 2.380 0.132 0.102 0.030
47 10.7 2.370 0.113 0.097 0.016
48 10.6 2.361 0.094 0.092 0.002
49 9.5 2.251 0.075 0.050 0.025
50 9.5 2.251 0.057 0.050 0.006
51 8.8 2.175 0.038 0.031 0.007
52 7.8 2.054 0.019 0.013 0.005
4.2.1.3. DISTRIBUCIÓN DE GUMBEL

m P Prob(P) F(X) Abs(F-P)

μy = 0.549
1 35.2 0.981 0.979 0.003
2 31.7 0.962 0.959 0.003 σy = 1.1637
3 30.5 0.943 0.949 0.006
4 30.3 0.925 0.947 0.022 α = 0.188
5 27.2 0.906 0.907 0.001
6 25.2 0.887 0.867 0.019
β = 14.833
7 25 0.868 0.863 0.005
8 23.3 0.849 0.816 0.033 ∆t = 0.189
9 23.1 0.830 0.810 0.020 ∆c = 0.037 Si
10 22.3 0.811 0.782 0.029
11 21.9 0.792 0.768 0.025
12 21.5 0.774 0.752 0.022
13 21.5 0.755 0.752 0.003
14 21.3 0.736 0.744 0.008
15 21.3 0.717 0.744 0.027
16 20.9 0.698 0.727 0.029
17 19.8 0.679 0.675 0.004
18 19.8 0.660 0.675 0.015
19 19.8 0.642 0.675 0.034
20 19.5 0.623 0.660 0.037
21 18.1 0.604 0.582 0.021
22 18 0.585 0.576 0.009
23 17.6 0.566 0.552 0.014
24 17.1 0.547 0.521 0.027
25 17 0.528 0.514 0.014
26 16.7 0.509 0.495 0.015
27 16.6 0.491 0.488 0.002
28 16.5 0.472 0.482 0.010
29 16.2 0.453 0.462 0.009
30 15.9 0.434 0.441 0.007
31 15.8 0.415 0.434 0.019
32 15.7 0.396 0.428 0.031
33 15.5 0.377 0.414 0.037
34 14.9 0.358 0.373 0.014
35 14.5 0.340 0.345 0.005
36 14.3 0.321 0.331 0.010
37 14.3 0.302 0.331 0.029
38 13.6 0.283 0.283 0.000
39 12.8 0.264 0.231 0.033
40 12.5 0.245 0.212 0.033
41 12.3 0.226 0.200 0.027
42 12.3 0.208 0.200 0.008
43 12.2 0.189 0.194 0.005
44 12 0.170 0.182 0.012
45 11.9 0.151 0.176 0.025
46 10.8 0.132 0.118 0.014
47 10.7 0.113 0.113 0.000
48 10.6 0.094 0.109 0.015
49 9.5 0.075 0.065 0.010
50 9.5 0.057 0.065 0.009
51 8.8 0.038 0.045 0.007
52 7.8 0.019 0.023 0.005
 4.2.2. CHI CUADRADO: χ2

4.2.2.1. DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL

Distribución Normal
k Linf Lsup Mclase ϴ Zinf Zsup F(Linf) F(Lsup) e (ϴi-ei)2/ei
1 5.06 10.54 7.8 4 -2.050 -1.176 0.020 0.120 5.176 0.267
2 10.54 16.02 13.28 19 -1.176 -0.303 0.120 0.381 13.594 2.150
3 16.02 21.5 18.76 16 -0.303 0.571 0.381 0.716 17.421 0.116
4 21.5 26.98 24.24 8 0.571 1.445 0.716 0.926 10.903 0.773
5 26.98 32.46 29.72 4 1.445 2.319 0.926 0.990 3.327 0.136
6 32.46 37.94 35.2 1 2.319 3.193 0.990 0.999 0.493 0.521

N 52 Qi*ϴi (Qi-Qm) 2ϴi x 2c 3.963

k
∆Q
6
5.48
31.200 409.409 G.L. 3 Si
252.320 408.520 2t 7.81
x
Linf 5.06 300.160 11.372
Lsup 10.54 193.920 319.850
118.880 557.250
35.200 298.705
∑ 931.680 2005.107

Qm 17.917
S 6.270

4.2.2.2. DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG NORMAL

Distribución Log Normal

k Linf Lsup Mclase ϴ F(Linf) F(Lsup) e (ϴi-ei)2/ei
1 1.90 2.20 2.05 2.000 0.001 0.117 6.034 2.697
2 2.20 2.51 2.36 10.000 0.117 0.470 18.378 3.819
3 2.51 2.81 2.66 14.000 0.470 0.761 15.123 0.083
4 2.81 3.11 2.96 17.000 0.761 0.906 7.523 11.940
5 3.11 3.41 3.26 5.000 0.906 0.965 3.064 1.223
6 3.41 3.71 3.56 4.000 0.965 0.987 1.155 7.007

N 52 Qi*ϴi (Qi-Qm) 2ϴi x 2c 26.77

k 6
∆Q 0.301
4.108 1.118 G.L. 3.00 No
23.555 1.992 x 2t 7.81
Linf 1.903 37.196 0.294
Lsup 2.205 50.291 0.416
16.298 1.048
14.244 2.306
∑ 145.693 7.174

Qm 2.802
S 0.375
 4.2.2.3. DISTRIBUCIÓN DE GUMBEL

Distribución Gumbel
k Linf Lsup Mclase ϴ F(Linf) F(Lsup) e (ϴi-ei)2/ei
1 5.06 10.54 7.8 4 0.002 0.103 5.274 0.308
2 10.54 16.02 13.28 19 0.103 0.440 17.507 0.127
3 16.02 21.5 18.76 16 0.440 0.743 15.762 0.004
4 21.5 26.98 24.24 8 0.743 0.898 8.064 0.001
5 26.98 32.46 29.72 4 0.898 0.962 3.314 0.142
6 32.46 37.94 35.2 1 0.962 0.986 1.256 0.052

N 52 Qi*ϴi (Qi-Qm) 2ϴi x 2c 0.633

k
∆Q
6
5.48
31.200 409.409 G.L. 3.000 Si
252.320 408.520 2t
x 7.810
Linf 5.06 300.160 11.372
Lsup 10.54 193.920 319.850
118.880 557.250
μy = 0.549
35.200 298.705
σy = 1.164
∑ 931.680 2005.107
α = 0.186
Qm 17.917
β = 14.957
S 6.270