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MULTIFAMILY
New York City Q2/19
Housing Shortage Underpins Stable Rental
Performance; Investment Interest Remains Elevated Multifamily 2019 Forecast
Y-O-Y Average
Slight pickup in construction unlikely to alter demand dynamics. Metro Vacancy Basis Point Effective Y-O-Y
Change
Amid steady job growth in the New York City economy, the apartment Change Rent
market is booming as single-family homes remain unreachable for most
residents. Following the cyclical peak in multifamily construction in Bronx 0.9% 0 $1,485 2.4%
2017, development has steadily declined, prompting incredibly tight
vacancy rates metrowide. All boroughs, with the exception of Manhat-
Brooklyn 2.0% 10 $2,325 2.7%
tan, maintain vacancy rates below 2 percent, which has begun to sponsor
tremendous growth in the average effective rent in the most desirable
neighborhoods. Appreciation has been most robust in rapidly evolving Manhattan 1.9% -10 $3,765 2.5%
areas of Brooklyn and Queens, where relative affordability has drawn
residents. While construction will tick up from last year, sufficient
employment demand will keep the rental market tight, supporting rent Queens 1.4% -20 $2,280 3.7%
growth in the low single digits.
6%
search of better returns and more affordable prices per unit. Assets
in Bushwick and Prospect Park generated the most interest as in-
3%
vestors looked to position ahead of potential and ongoing redevel-
opment in the neighborhoods. Other nearby locations also drawing
0%
* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19* interest include Crown Heights and Bed-Stuy.
Sources: CoStar$800
Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics 30%
Year-over-Y
$600 15%
MANHATTAN
Rate
0%
6% • The education and health services and professional and business
services sectors created the vast majority of new jobs, adding
-4%
3% 46,600 and 19,500 positions, respectively.
-8% 0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$800 30%
8
• Over the past year ending in March, 5,600 units were delivered,
Year-over-Year Growth
slowing the pace of development
15% from the previous yearlong period
Units (000s)
$600
6
when 3,900 apartments were delivered. Lower Manhattan received
$400 0%
4 nearly a third of the new supply.
9% • Net absorption reached nearly 7,400 units over the past year,
Vacancy Rate
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change RENTS:
$4,000 10% 4.0% increase in the average effective rent Y-O-Y
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
$3,250 5% • The average effective rent climbed to $3,674 per month in the
first quarter, reaccelerating from the same period last year when
$2,500 0% the average rent climbed 1.3 percent.
$1,750 -5% • Rent growth in Midtown South far outpaced the borough average,
advancing 5.5 percent to $4,283 per month as new high-end rentals
$1,000 -10% boosted prices.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Five-Year Population Growth* 1Q19 Population Age 20-34 1Q19 Median Household Income
(Percent of total population)
18,600 $87,128
Metro 29% Metro
4%
• The average9%cap rate remains in the low-4 percent range, supporting
Harlem 1.7% -10 $2,226 3.0% prices per unit in the low- to mid-$500,000 range.
Rate
0%
6%
Outlook: Consistent cap rates and rising prices across the borough, par-
-4% ticularly for assets
3%
under 25 units, is encouraging a focus on areas where
Lower Manhattan 1.9% 0 $4,313 3.7% demand has been most robust, such as Upper Manhattan and Harlem.
-8% 0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$800 30%
8
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$600 15%
6
2 $200 -15%
-4%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
CONSTRUCTION
Completions and Absorption Sales Trends
Completions Absorption Sales 6,400 units completed Y-O-Y
Price Growth
$500 40%
12
Year-over-Year Growth
from more than 7,200 units in the previous yearlong period. The
Units (000s)
$375 20%
9 Williamsburg/Greenpoint/Navy Yard submarket received more
$250
than a third of new supply. 0%
6
• This year’s pipeline will be led by 420 Kent Avenue, part of a large
3 $125 -20%
mixed-use project on the East River in Williamsburg, where more
0
than 850 residences will open.
$0 -40%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change RENTS:
$2,400 12%
2.8% increase in the average effective rent Y-O-Y
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
$2,050 6%
• The average effective rent climbed to $2,279 per month in the
first quarter after posting a 1.5 percent increase a year ago. A
$1,700 0%
sharp drop in construction has dramatically tightened vacancy in
$1,350 -6% the market, allowing rents to continue to rise.
Five-Year Population Growth* 1Q19 Population Age 20-34 1Q19 Median Household Income
(Percent of total population)
37,700 $61,136
Metro 25% Metro
*2018-2023
2%
Southern Southeast • The average cap rate remains in the high-4 to low-5 percent range,
0.9% 0 $1,813 3.1%
Brooklyn depending on asset quality and location. Bushwick and Williamsburg
0%
Crown Heights/Prospect properties led transactions.
1.2% -40 $1,798 1.3%
Lefferts Gardens -2%
Outlook: Heightened demand amid a drop off in development has spurred
investors to deploy capital along train stops, with interior neighborhoods
Southwest Brooklyn 1.4% -10 $1,633 1.9%
-4% gaining precedence over the East River coast due to greater affordability.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Bed-Stuy/Fort Greene/
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$500 40%
2.9% -60 $2,863 4.0%
Bushwick 12
Year-over-Year Growth
Units (000s)
$375 20%
9
Downtown Brooklyn 3.7% -210 $3,689 5.9%
$250 0%
6
Williamsburg/Green-
3.9% 0 $3,279 1.3%
point/Navy Yard 3 $125 -20%
• Over the past year, the pace of development increased from 4,300
Units (thousands)
9 3%
units to 4,800 as builders focus on more boutique projects in higher-
Vacancy Rate
end neighborhoods. 6 2%
Units (thousands)
than 800 rentals, contracting vacancy by 30 basis points to 1.5 investors
1.0 to hold in the wake of the Amazon announcement,
6%
Vacancy Rate
percent over the past year. 12
which has since been rescinded.
4%
Units (thousands)
0.5 4%
• The average price per square foot reached the mid-$270s,
3% roughly
3.6% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y 9
Vacancy Rate
in line with
0 the previous year, while cap rates remain in2%
the mid-4
• Exceptionally tight conditions sponsored submarket’s average 6
percent range. 2%
0 0%
15 16 17 18 19*
STATEN ISLAND
CONSTRUCTION Supply and Demand
Completions Absorption Vacancy
0 units completed Y-O-Y
1.5 8%
• Over the past year, developers completed no new rentals, just below
Units (thousands)
1.0 6%
the previous year’s total of 67 units.
Vacancy Rate
• After a dormant 2018, Lighthouse Point Apartments will come to 0.5 4%
market at 5 Bay Street on Staten Island. The project will contain
116 units. 0 2%
-0.5 0%
15 16 17 18 19*
• The average price per unit was in the low-$200,000s range, spurred
1.6% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y by a focus on high-quality, well-leased assets with an average of less
than 20 units.
• The average effective rent ticked up 1.6 percent to $1,552 per
month, slowing moderately from the 3.7 percent growth rate
recorded in the previous yearlong period.
* Forecast
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc.
1Q19 – 12-Month Period BRONX
Units (thousands)
9 6 3%
Vacancy Rate
rising from 1,800 to 2,600 units on a year-over-year basis. The
Vacancy Rate
pipeline remains robust,6 however, with over 6,000 rentals currently
2% 4 2%
underway in the borough.
3 1% 2 1%
• This year, completions will be led by 1520-1530 Story Ave. and the
third phase of the Compass
0 Residences. Both projects contain more0% 0 0%
15 16 17 18 19*
than 365 units each. 15 16 17 18 19*
Units (thousands)
6% 6
Completions Absorption Vacancy 5%
Vacancy Rate
ing 30 units orCompletions
less. Absorption Vacancy
into the mid- to high-5 percent range, driven by the focus on small-
Units (thousands)
Units (thousands)
2.2% 0
increase in effective rents Y-O-Y
9 2% 3% 2 6 3%
3%
Vacancy Rate
0 0% 0 0%
15 16 17 18 19* 15
WESTCHESTER COUNTY
16 17 18 19*
CONSTRUCTION
Supply and Demand Supply and Demand
1,000 units completed Y-O-Y Completions Absorption Vacancy Completions Absorption Vacancy
1.5 8% 8 6%
• Over the past year, completions edged down moderately as
Units (thousands)
Units (thousands)
Vacancy Rate
• The future pipeline remains elevated, with nearly 2,600 units
0.5 4% 4 4%
expected to be completed over the next 18 months. The largest
projects are located in New Rochelle
0 at 45 Harrison St. and 360 2% 2 3%
Huguenot St., containing more than 280 rentals.
-0.5 0% 0 2%
15 16 17 18 19* 15 16 17 18 19*
• Prices per unit in the broad metro remain in the low- to mid-
2.5% increase in effective rents Y-O-Y $200,000 range, with activity concentrated in Yonkers, Mt. Vernon
• Demand for rentals remains elevated, supporting a rise in the and New Rochelle.
average effective rent to $1,986 per month.
* Forecast
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc.
1Q19* Apartment Acquisitions CAPITAL MARKETS
By Buyer Type
Other, 0.9%
By DAVID G. SHILLINGTON, President,
Cross-Border, 8.6%
Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation
Equity Fund • International pressures weigh on domestic outlook; Fed remains
& Institutions, 23.5% patient. Amid ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China
and slowing growth throughout the European economy, the global
economic outlook has become more cautious. Market volatility,
Private, 64.1%
Listed/REITs, 2.9% combined with muted sentiment, has sponsored a flight to the safety
of Treasurys, pushing the 10-year yield below 2.6 percent. While
domestic growth has moderated recently, the waning impact of the tax
cut stimulus will likely trim forward estimates further. As a result, the
Apartment Mortgage Originations Fed has decided to cease reducing its balance sheet reduction through
By Lender quantitative tightening by September and removed the potential for
100% rate increases through the remainder of the year. The bond market
has begun to price in a much more dovish Fed, with flattening interest
Percent of Dollar Volume
Gov't Agency rates reflecting more caution. Fed officials will likely focus on the
75%
Financial/Insurance
intersection of a global growth slowdown and continued labor market
Nat'l Bank/Int'l Bank
50% strength to refine their plans moving forward, keeping interest rates
Reg'l/Local Bank
CMBS stable for the foreseeable future.
25%
• Abundant liquidity sources balance conservative approach to
underwriting. The availability of debt for apartment assets remains
0%
elevated, spurred by the recent pivot by the Federal Reserve. Sourcing
14 15 16 17 18
will be led by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in addition to a wide
* Trailing 12 months through 1Q19 array of local, regional and national banks, and insurance companies.
Includes sales $2.5 million and greater
Sources: CoStar Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics Loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are trending between 65 and 75 percent
on stabilized properties. The decline in interest rates has rewidened
the spread between cap rates and Treasurys, reducing lender concerns
about the risks related to repayment and valuation at maturity.
National Multi Housing Group Development and value-add projects have seen more conservative
John Sebree lending due to concerns surrounding overdevelopment and the length
First Vice President, National Director | National Multi Housing Group of the business cycle, leading to a greater use of alternative financing
Tel: (312) 327-5417 | john.sebree@marcusmillichap.com structures such as mezzanine loans and preferred equity to cover the
additional capital requirements.
Prepared and edited by
Aaron Martens
Research Analyst | Research Services