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MULTIFAMILY
North Carolina Metros Q2/19
Rent Growth Surges in North Carolina as
Development Fades Multifamily 2019 Forecast
Y-O-Y Average
Construction cycle peak behind largest North Carolina metros. De- Metro Vacancy Basis Point Effective Y-O-Y
Change
velopers are slowing the pace of supply additions, which should support Change Rent
tighter vacancy in Charlotte and Raleigh. Greensboro, on the other hand,
requires stronger demand-side fundamentals to reverse course. Core Charlotte 4.9% -10 $1,165 5.8%
locations remain the primary focus for construction firms due to strong
demand and higher rents that justify elevated building costs. Additionally,
Raleigh 5.0% -10 $1,160 5.0%
the extended development timelines for high-rise projects have pushed
some projects that broke ground during the cyclical peak into 2019
completions. Two of the largest developments slated for completion this Greensboro/
5.3% 30 $861 5.4%
year, Bradham at New Bern and Uptown 550 in Charlotte, which account Winston-Salem
for more than 800 units in buildings over six stories, broke ground in the
second half of 2017 and are coming online in the second quarter.
Raleigh
• Core listings in Raleigh and Durham draw investors to metro, as do
Local Apartment Yield Trends some high-profile job additions in the Research Triangle. Buyers
will also target apartments near the metro’s several colleges and
Apartment Cap Rate 10-Year Treasury Rate
universities, including the University of North Carolina.
12%
• Although declining construction may hamper deals in the Class A
sector, listings should garner strong interest. Class B/C trades will
9%
remain robust and could eclipse 2018 levels absent a measurable rise
in interest rates.
Rate
6%
3%
Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point
0% • Rising entry prices have not reached a level that would discourage
* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
buyers from remaining active in the metro, especially for Class B and
Class C assets.
Sales Trends • Average cap rates are compressing, bucking a national trend that has
* Cap rate trailing 12-month averageSales
through 1Q; Treasury
Pricerate as of March 29
Growth seen relative stable first-year returns.
Includes sales $1 million and greater for Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point
er Unit (000s)
Sources: CoStar$160
Group, Inc.; Real Capital Analytics 30%
Year-over-Y
$120 15%
CHARLOTTE
Rate
0%
6% • Job growth is healthy across a broad range of white- and blue-
collar industries. Professional and business services expanded by
-3% 3%
8,300 spots over the last 12 months, while leisure and hospitality
-6% reported 5,600 new spots.
0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$160 30%
12
Year-over-Year Growth
• In the 12-month period ending in the first quarter, 7,100 units
Units (000s)
$120 15%
9 were added to supply, lifting inventory 4.0 percent. Development is
$80
retreating from a cyclical peak. 0%
6
• New construction inches modestly lower this year as 6,900
$40 -15%
3 apartments are introduced, including 400 units at the 500 West
Trade project in the heart of the metro. Last year, 7,100 apartments
0 $0 -30%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 were
11 completed.
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
• Marketwide vacancy was flat year over year after the rate ticked
up 30 basis points in the first quarter to 5.3 percent. In the
8%
previous 12-month period, vacancy climbed 30 basis points.
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change
RENTS:
$1,200 10%
$900 5%
• Average rent growth posted the strongest annual gain since mid-
$600 0% 2016 as market demand helped it jump 6.1 percent to $1,116 per
month. In the previous year, gains were 3.8 percent.
$300 -5%
• Strong demand in low-rent submarkets Mooresville-Statesville
$0 -10% and Gaston County supported an effective rent growth of 8.9
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
percent and 7.7 percent, respectively.
* Forecast
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc
Demographic Highlights
Five-Year Population Growth* 1Q19 Population Age 20-34 1Q19 Median Household Income
(Percent of total population)
253,500 $63,894
Metro 21% Metro
Rate Change
Change Rent
3% was in the Class A sector.
9%
Gaston County 3.4% -170 $932 7.7% • An increase in top-tier deals lifted the average price per unit
Rate
0%
approximately
6% 9 percent to $117,000 per unit.
Concord-Kannapolis-Salisbury
-3% 4.1% -30 $940 6.8% Outlook: As capital
3%
scours the country in search of available assets, Char-
lotte properties will garner significant attention. Average cap rates near 6
-6% percent is a significant
0% motivator.
Huntersville-Cornelius 09 10 4.3%
11 12 -140
13 14 15$1,157
16 17 7.0%
18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$160 30%
12
Year-over-Year Growth
$120 15%
9
3 $40 -15%
North Charlotte 5.4% 90 $1,093 6.9%
0 $0 -30%
09 10 11 12 13
Uptown-South End 5.4% -40 14 15 16
$1,616 17 18
3.9% 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Rate
0%
6%
$140 50%
8
Year-over-Year Growth
• The pace of development hovered near the cyclical peak in the
Units (000s)
$105 25%
6 past year as 5,400 units came online. The Northwest Durham-
$70 Downtown submarket received 1,2000% units , while North Cary-
4
Morrisville’s inventory increased by 1,600 apartments.
2 $35 -25%
• Construction falls to 3,900 units this year, representing a 2.4
0 $0
percent increase to inventory. Development
-50%
declines to the lowest
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 level
11 12in 2013
13 14 years.
15 16 17 18 19*
• Year over year, the vacancy rate declined 40 basis points to 5.6
6% percent. In the first quarter, the rate increased 50 basis points
due to the soft winter renting season.
4%
• Vacancy finishes the year at 5 percent, down 10 basis points from
year-end 2018. Class A vacancy, which has trended higher than
2%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* Class B/C apartments, should close the gap as construction slows.
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change
• Class B apartments have enjoyed the strongest rent hikes over the
$400 -10%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* past 12 months, eclipsing 5 percent. Class C rents were the largest
drag on the market in the last 12 months.
* Forecast
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc
Demographic Highlights
Five-Year Population Growth* 1Q19 Population Age 20-34 1Q19 Median Household Income
(Percent of total population)
245,700 $72,095
Metro 22% Metro
4%
Chapel Hill-Carrboro 4.9% -160 $1,158 3.6% • The average9%price per unit is approaching $133,000 per unit due to
strong investor demand. Average cap rates compressed modestly into
Rate
0%
the mid-5 percent
6% range.
Northwest Raleigh 4.9% -10 $1,079 3.8%
-4% Outlook: Core locations
3%
will continue to draw significant interest this year.
East Durham 5.1% -120 $1,043 12.0% Over the last 12 months, approximately 40 percent of the transactions
-8% were in the downtown
0% Raleigh and Durham areas.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
Central Raleigh 5.2% -60 $1,138 3.4%
$140 50%
8
Year-over-Year Growth
$105 25%
6
2 $35 -25%
Far North Raleigh 6.2% 20 $1,081 5.6%
0 $0 -50%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Overall Metro 5.6% -40 $1,115 4.9%
3%
9% ending in March. The pace of payroll expansion is expected to
hasten this year.
Rate
0%
6%
• Education and health service jobs accounted for nearly half of
-3% the new jobs created in past year. Construction and leisure and
3%
hospitality, meanwhile, generated a collective 3,000 spots in the
-6% 0% last 12 months.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
$100 30%
6
Year-over-Year Growth
• Over the past four quarters, builders brought 1,200 units online,
Units (000s)
$75 15%
4
relatively on par with the previous year. More than half of the
2
$50 new apartments were in the Burlington
0% submarket, while South
Greensboro received 300 units.
0 $25 -15%
• Builders will deliver 1,700 apartments to the market this year, lifting
-2 $0 supply 1.6 percent. The largest project
-30% added to inventory in 2019 is
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
the 340-unit Links Apartments.
12%
Metro United States
VACANCY
100 basis point decrease in vacancy Y-O-Y
10%
Vacancy Rate
Rent Trends
Monthly Rent Y-O-Y Rent Change
$1,000 8% RENTS:
Year-over-Year Change
Monthly Effective Rent
$0 -8% • Gains in effective rent are anticipated to remain strong. The average
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
surges to $861 per month this year, 5.4 percent higher than where the
average rested at the end of 2018.
*Forecast
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; CoStar Group, Inc
Demographic Highlights
Five-Year Population Growth* 1Q19 Population Age 20-34 1Q19 Median Household Income
(Percent of total population)
77,800 $51,754
Metro 19% Metro
3%
High Point 3.9% -330 $814 8.2% • Average per 9%unit prices remained on an upward trajectory in the past
year, rising to $86,000 per door. Cap rates compressed into the mid-6
Rate
0%
percent range.6%
North Winston-Salem 4.6% -70 $830 6.3%
-3% Outlook: Low entry costs in a rapidly growing state will continue to draw
3%
West Greensboro 4.6% -250 $864 5.6% local and regional capital to the metro.
-6% 0%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19*
North Greensboro 5.0% -120 $808 10.1%
Burlington 5.5%
Completions 60 $893
and Absorption 6.3% Sales Trends
Completions Absorption Sales Price Growth
South Winston-Salem 5.6% -10 $807 6.7%
Average Price per Unit (000s)
$100 30%
6
Year-over-Year Growth
$75 15%
4
0 $25 -15%
-2 $0 -30%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19* 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19*
Price: $250
Richard Matricaria Executive Vice President of Investment Brokerage Rene H. Palsenbarg Reg
The information contained in this report was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Every 333 West Wacker Drive, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60606 10180 101 Street, Suite 3400
(312) 327-5400 | richard.matricaria@marcusmillichap.com Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3S4
effort was made to obtain accurate and complete information; however, no representation, warranty
(604) 675-5200 | rene.palsenbar
or guarantee, express or implied, may be made as to the accuracy or reliability of the information David Bradley Regional Manager | Chicago Downtown
333 West Wacker Drive, Suite 200, Chicago, IL 60606
contained herein. Note: Metro-level employment growth is calculated based on the last month of the
(312) 327-5479 | david.bradley@marcusmillichap.com Encino Office:
quarter/year. Sales data includes transactions valued at $1,000,000 and greater unless otherwise
Steven Weinstock First Vice President/Regional Manager
noted. This is not intended to be a forecast of future events and this is not a guaranty regarding a
One Mid America Plaza Suite 200 Jim Markel Vice President/
future event. This is not intended to provide specific investment advice and should not be considered Oakbrook Terrace, IL 60181 16830 Ventura Boulevard, Suite
as investment advice. (630) 570-2250 | steven.weinstock@marcusmillichap.com Encino, CA 91436
(818) 212-2700 | jim.markel@ma
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar Group, Inc.;
Experian; National Association of Realtors; Moody’s Analytics; Real Capital Analytics; RealPage,
Fort Lauderdale Office:
Inc.; TWR/Dodge Pipeline; U.S. Census Bureau
Cincinnati Office:
Ryan Nee First Vice Presiden
Colby Haugness Regional Manager 5900 N. Andrews Avenue, Suite 1
600 Vine Street, 10th Floor Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33309