Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LOAN EVALUATION
JOHN PATTILLA
In December 1994 John Pattilla of TNB had written a 12-page memorandum
recommending that the bank make a specific financing proposal to Spartan.
Pattilla's analysis was quite thorough and included projections of the firm's
situation using a "best guess" or "most likely" and "worst case" set of
assumptions. (See Exhibit 1 for excerpts from his 1994 report, Exhibit 2 for
his net income projections, Exhibit 3 for his balance sheet projections, and
Exhibit 4 for his "worst case" cash flow estimates.)
Pattilla had a few conversations with Wilson to get information for the
projections. The final estimates, however, reflect Pattilla's assessment of the
situation, and Wilson has never seen these numbers. Pattilla had recommended
that TNB extend the company up to $700,000 in loans. The money would be
used to finance Spartan's working capital and fixed-asset needs for anticipated
strong sales growth from an expanding economy and the introduction of a
number of new products. The company was especially excited about its new
macrocarbide product line. Macrocarbide is known for its unusually long life
and is therefore very useful in the roofing industry.
It is now early 1996 and Pattilla has to decide whether TNB should make
another proposal to Lawrence Wilson. As Pattilla leans back in his chair, he
leafs through information on Spartan, and a number of items catch his eye. He
smiles as he notices the nearly 40-percent increase in sales for 1995, an
increase he predicted almost to the penny. Pattilla realizes, however, that
Spartan must have benefited enormously from the economic upturn, since the
sales of its new products have not gone as well as expected. Especially
disappointing were the sales of Spartan's macrocarbide product line. It appears
to Pattilla that the sales growth is due more to an external factor outside the
company's control—the economy—than to internal factors under its control.
CASE 8 SPARTAN ROOFING 51
He also notes that Wilson tapped the firm's line of credit with First City for
over $500,000, a result not at all consistent with his 1994 projections. Pattilla
knows that any proposal would involve a buy-out of First City, and TNB's
offer should be at least the amount of Spartan's credit line with First City, or
about $750,000. Pattilla had concluded his 1994 report by noting that "this
represents an excellent opportunity for TNB." But now, nearly 14 months after
he made that recommendation, Pattilla wonders if he will reach the same
conclusions as he begins his evaluation of Spartan's financial records.
QUESTIONS
1. (a) Complete the 1995 pro forma balance sheet listed in Exhibit 3.
(b) Complete the "worst case" cash flow projection for 1997 listed in
Exhibit 4.
2. Do you agree that TNB should have actively sought Spartan's business at
the end of 1994? Fully support your answer. (Note: When this
recommendation was made, Pattilla only had financial information on the
first three quarters of 1994. He did possess, however, a projection for the
last quarter that was virtually identical to what actually occurred.)
3. Calculate the ratios listed in Exhibit 9 for the Spartan Roofing Company
for 1995.
4. Evaluate the Spartan Roofing Company's situation at the present time
(early 1996). What difficulties, if any, does your evaluation indicate?
5. Note that in 1995 Spartan's cash flow from operations (net income plus
depreciation) was its highest during the 1992—1995 period. Yet its need
for external funds, reflected in the large increase in its short-term bank
loans, was also the greatest over the same period. Resolve this apparent
paradox.
6. Use the format of Exhibit 4.
(a) Prepare what you think is a "best guess" ("most likely") cash flow
forecast for 1996. State your assumptions clearly. Do assume,
however, that capital expense will be $120(000) and depreciation
remains at $80(000). Defend the assumptions of your forecast.
(b) Prepare what you think is a "worst case" cash flow forecast for 1996.
Clearly state your assumptions. Do assume, however, that there is no
change in sales from the 1995 level, depreciation remains at
$80(000), and that the firm will postpone all expansion projects and
incur only replacement capital expenses of $50(000). Defend the
assumptions of your forecast.
7. Do a liquidation analysis on the firm for the end of 1995. That is, estimate
its liquidation value and compare it to the amount of its debt obligations.
52 PART 11 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
B SOFTWARE QUESTION
10. Attention instructors: Questions 6 and 8 should probably not be assigned
if this question is used.
John Pattilla of Tennessee National Bank has to decide whether to seek
Spartan's business. He is considering a $750,000 loan, which would enable
Spartan to buy out First City, Spartan's present bank. The principal would be
payable in equal amounts each year for the next six years (1996—2001).
After some thought, Pattilla decides to analyze Spartan's cash flow in the
following scenarios (1997 capital spending is $50(000) in all scenarios).
Pattilla has not had time to carefully examine these claims, and wonders if
these changes "would make any difference, anyway, assuming Wilson is
right."
Perform the appropriate analysis. What would you recommend to Pattilla?
Defend your advice.
54 PART 11 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
EXHIBIT
EXHIBIT 1
Excerpts from John Pattilla's 1994 Report on the Spartan Roofing Company
• "The company expects, and I agree, that sales growth will be 37 percent, 20
percent, and 20 percent over the next three years. This will result partly,
from the economic growth of the overall economy but mainly from the sales
generated by its new macrocarbide products."
• "Lawrence Wilson is exceptionally strong in the technical aspects of the
busi ness and is very much involved in new product development. He has a
B.S. and an M.S. in chemical engineering from MIT. On the other hand,
being a technical sort, his financial expertise is somewhat limited.
Nonetheless, Wilson's track record over the last 10 years speaks for itself,
and we have had no reason to question his integrity."
• "One area of concern is the quality of the accounts receivable, given that
the majority of the customers are contractors. It should be noted, however,
that the majority of the contractors have been doing business with Spartan
for a number of years and the company is familiar with their financial
condition. In fact, its bad debt expense has never exceeded 0.6 percent in
any of the last 10 years, a solid statistic considering the customer base."
• "The main reason for the company's poor earnings in 1994 was the large
expenses incurred by a former salesman of the company. Lawrence hired a
salesman who was very expensive but did not produce. As a result, selling
expenses increased sharply in 1994."
• "From 1992 to 1994, the period I analyzed most intensively, Spartan
generated sufficient cash flow from operations to meet its capital
expenditure needs and its debt service. Adjusted working capital was a net
source of funds for the company which partly reflects the attention given to
the management of working capital. The result of all this was a large
positive cash flow (see Exhibit 8) which Spartan used to repay a number of
relatively expensive term loans. Whether this was a wise financial move is
debatable." • "Due to the working capital requirements of the large expected
(continued)
CASE 8 SPARTAN ROOFING 55
sales growth and the fixed-asset needs of the company, the company will
not be in a position to begin repaying any of the principal on the debt until
1997."
• "Even my 'worst case' cash flow forecast indicates that Spartan will have
sufficient funds to repay sizeable chunks of any new debt beginning in
1997." (See Exhibit 4.)
1
(Continued)
• "I recommend we finance Spartan's working capital and fixed asset needs.
This will require up to $700,000. I also recommend that we do not amortize
any of the loans for two years. The loans would be secured by the accounts
receivable, inventory, and equipment of the company, and would be
personally guaranteed by Lawrence."
• "I believe this to be an attractive opportunity for us, but it does involve
several elements of risk. The company's sales and earnings are quite
sensitive to overall economic conditions and the construction industry in
particular. In addition, the nature of the customer base (contractors) is
suspect. On the other hand, given the company's track record, it appears that
they have effectively managed these risks."
(continued)
56 PART 11 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
EXHIBIT
(continued)
EXHIBIT 3
Pro Forma Balance Sheets for the Spartan Roofing Company: 1995—1997 (OOOs)
(Developed by John Pattilla for TNB in 1994)
1995 1996 1997
Assets
$21738
'B.G. refers to a "best guess" ("most likely") forecast that incorporates these assumptions:(l) receivables will be 55
days of sales; (2) inventory turnover will be 8.4 (43 days of sales); (3) accounts payable will be 3.9 percent of sales
(continued)
58 PART 11 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
EXHIBIT
EXHIBIT 3
(Continued)
EXHIBIT 4
Worst Case* Cash Flow Projections for the Spartan Roofing Company:
1995-1997 (ooos)
(Developed by John Pattilla in 1994)
(continued)
CASE 8 SPARTAN ROOFING 59
— Capital expense 90 30
— Dividends
Cash flow ($267) ($242) $257
(continued)
60 PART 11 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
EXHIBIT
4
(Continued)
— Accruals 318
*This assumes (1) net income will be 1.5 percent of sale; (2) receivable will be 60 days of sales; (3) inventory
turnover will be 7.2 or 50 days of sales; and (4) accounts payable will be 3.9 percent of sales and accruals 6 percent.
(See Exhibits 2 and 3 for propcted net income and pro forma balance sheets.)
EXHIBIT 5
Income Statements and Bad Debt Expense for the Spartan Roofing Company:
1992-1995 (ooos)
EXHIBIT
Bad debt expense 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
EXHIBIT 6
Normalized Income Statements for the Spartan Roofing Company: 1992—1995
Assets
EXHIBIT
Current liabilities $469 $1,316
EXHIBIT 8
Spartan's Cash Flow 1992—1994 (000s)
9
Financial Ratios for the Spartan Roofing Company: 1992—1995
Industry
Averagea
1992 1993 1994 1995 1992-1995
Liquidity Ratios
CASE 8 SPARTAN ROOFING 63
EXHIBIT
Current 2.32 2.07 2.19 1.6
1.2
15
Quick 1.45 1.38 1.28 1.0
Leverage Ratios
38
Debt (0/0) 55 .50 36 55
71
11
Times interest earned 3.42 4.75 5
2
Activity Ratios
13.6
Inventory turnover (sales) 8.4 8.7 9.7
6.5
16.4
Fixed asset turnover 9.52 10.1 10.1
5.5
2.9
Total asset turnover 2.36 2.25 2.78 2.3
37
Average collection period 6-4 72 53 49
61
Profitability Ratios
32
Gross margin (%) 28 26 25 26
23
3.6
Net profit margin (%) 2.4 2.5 1.1 2.4
1.6
25
Return on net worth (%) 12.5 11.3 4.9 13
9
Return on total assets (%) 5.6 3.2 5.8
a
The three numbers for each ratio are computed in the following way. Ratios for all firms in the industry are arran in
ratio: that is, half the
firms in the industry had ratios better than the median ratio and half had ratios that were worse. The top number
represents the upper quartile figure, meaning 25 pement of the firms had ratios better than this.
The lower number represents the lowest quartile; that is, 25 percent of the firms had ratios worse than this.