The Journal of Engineering

The 7th International Conference on Renewable Power Generation

(RPG 2018)

Probabilistic indexes and evaluation method eISSN 2051-3305

Received on 26th October 2018
Accepted on 05th December 2018
for network structure adaptability with high- doi: 10.1049/joe.2018.9229
www.ietdl.org
penetration renewable energy
Chengming Zhang1 , Haozhong Cheng1, Shenxi Zhang1, Zheng Wang2, Jianzhong Lu2, Xiaohu Zhang2
1Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, People's Republic of

China
2East China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Shanghai, 200122, People's Republic of China

E-mail: willzsx@sjtu.edu.cn

Abstract: High-penetration renewable energy and AC/DC hybrid network are two main basic characteristics of future power
systems. Evaluating different networks' structure adaptability is extremely important for the power system to keep economical,
safe, reliable and flexible. Firstly, the basic characteristic and the definition of network structure adaptability are given under the
background of strong randomness. On this basis, several probable indexes of structure adaptability are proposed. After that, a
practical calculation method is put forward, in which the Monte Carlo simulation method and the optimal economic dispatch
model are used. Case studies are carried out on the modified IEEE 30-bus system, and the simulation results show that the
proposed indexes can effectively reflect the adaptability of different network structures with the integration of high-penetration
renewable energy.

1 Introduction of H-RE. In this paper, the adaptability of network structure is

As a serious energy crisis and pollution problems spread among the
world, renewable energy is expected to replace traditional energy
and regarded as the significant choice of sustainable development.
The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of renewable
energy will change the fundamental structure and operation method
of power systems. The limitation of network structure will have
great influence on the optimal operation due to the increasing
uncertainty coupled with source and demand. Therefore, structure
adaptability evaluation of transmission network is of great
necessity.
Researches on structure adaptability evaluation of transmission
network are absent in recent years and most of them are focused on
the security evaluation to reduce the risk of high-penetration
renewable energy (H-RE). In [1], a new set of assessment index
system and structure strength method of urban power network are
proposed to evaluate the resistance of disturbance. A model of
survivability to evaluate the structural invulnerability is established
based on the network irreversibility, which considers not only the
nodes but also the edges in [2]. As for H-RE integration,
Negnevitsky et al. [3] presents a risk assessment approach to
evaluate power system security for operation planning under high
penetration of wind power. Dongxiao et al. [4] takes the network
constraints, trans-provincial power exchange and balancing
capacity into consideration to evaluate the consumption of wind
energy. It is common that some researchers consider the network
adaptability from the perspective of system flexibility. A novel
flexibility evaluation methodology is proposed based on the
probabilistic distribution of flexibility adequacy and the novel
indices can reflect the direction, amount, frequency, and
consequence of lack of flexibility especially with H-RE integration
in [5]. Zongxiang et al. [6] define the power system flexibility and
concludes its characteristics at first, then the universal
mathematical description of power system called supply–demand
flexibility balance is put forward. Finally, the flexible promotion
options are divided into three types according to their action
mechanism. The insufficient ramping resource expectation metric
is proposed to measure power system flexibility in long-term
planning targeted for H-RE systems in [7].
However, a set of adaptability indexes to comprehensively
evaluate the network structure are absent from the abovementioned
researches, especially for the AC/DC network with the integration
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defined based on the characteristic analysis. On this basis, a set of
probabilistic indexes are put forward to reflect economic,
fluctuation, contingency, demand–supply and renewable
consumption respectively. Afterwards, a practical calculation
method is proposed, which depends on the optimal economic
dispatch by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the
evaluation method is applied to a modified IEEE 30-bus system.
The AC and the AC/DC hybrid network are, respectively,
evaluated with different adaptability influencing factors to find the
change regulation.
The rest of this paper is organised as follows. Section 2 presents
the definition and characteristics of network structure adaptability.
Section 3 proposes the probabilistic adaptability indexes. Section 4
introduces the practical solution method and specific computation
steps. Case studies and results are given and discussed in Section 5.
Conclusions are made in Section 6.
2 Definition and characteristics of network
structure adaptability
We define the structure adaptability as the ability that takes full use
of network structure to resist uncertainty and fluctuation. Main
characteristics of adaptability with H-RE integration are shown as
follows:
(1) The economic adaptability denotes to maximum the
comprehensive utilisation of transmission network with security
constraints.
(2) The fluctuation adaptability measures the ability of stabilising
power flow, even if high fluctuation appearing both in source and
demand.
(3) The contingency adaptability considers about the resistance of
severe contingency rather than conventional N-1 security-
constraints especially when H-RE integrated.
(4) The load supply adaptability guarantees transporting enough
power energy and reducing load-shedding.
(5) The consumption adaptability encourages to consume
renewable energy as much as possible within the limitation of
network structure.
1
3 Probabilistic adaptability indexes define the total power supply and demand, as X and Y respectively.
Furthermore, Z = X-Y refers to the remaining power supply.
3.1 Expectation of branch load rate (PEBLR) Therefore, Z and PAPLS,2 can be computed as follows:
PEBLR reflects the comprehensive utilisation of transmission
network facing up with massive stochastic scenarios: φZ = φX ΘφY = ( ⊕ φXi)Θ ( ⊕ φYi) (7)
i∈S i∈L

N ∫ +∞
xiφl(xi) dxi Dmax
PEBLR =
1
∑
Ni=1
−∞
Si, max
, i = 1, 2...N (1) φZ (z) = ∫ 0
φ(D)φZ (z D)dD (8)

Dmax
∫
where xi, φl(xi) and Si,max respectively denote power flow,
probability density function and transferring capacity of branch PAPLS, 2 = φZ (z)dz (9)
−∞
line. And N counts for branch number in this paper.
where φX and φY are the probability density function of total
3.2 Comprehensive fluctuation rate of branch line (PCFRB) generation output and total demand in need. The marks ⊕ and ㊀
PCFRB refers to the ratio that totally combines factual fluctuation take the symbol of convolution difference and convolution sum. S
and L are respectively sets of electrical supply equipment as well as
with maximal fluctuation, where the former is able to be computed
demand equipment. φz(z) is the probability density function of
by variance:
remaining supply power. Ultimately, PAPLS is computed as the sum
N of PAPLS,1 and PAPLS,2.
∑ El(xi2) − [El(xi)]2
i=1
PCFRB = N , i = 1, 2...N (2)
2
∑ max { Si, max − El(xi) , El(xi) 2} 3.4 Absence consumption probability of renewable energy
i=1
(PACRE)

∫
+∞
PACRE considers about the consumption ability under structure
El(xi2) = xi2φi(xi)dxi (3)
−∞ restrictions and also can be computed by convolution method:

Z = X−Y
∫
+∞ (10)
El(xi) = xiφi(xi)dxi (4)
−∞
φZ = φX ΘφY = ( ⊕ φXi)Θ ( ⊕ φYi) (11)
i∈S i∈L
2
El(xi) is the expectation of transmission power and El(xi ) is the
Rmax
∫
expectation of the square.
2
El(xi2) − (El(xi))2 and max Si, max − El(xi) , El(xi) 2 , are φZ (z) = f (R)φZ (z R)dR (12)
0
respectively factual and maximal fluctuation of the ith branch line.

∫
+∞

3.3 Over-transferring probability of branch line under PACRE = φZ (z)dz (13)

0
contingency (POTBC)
POTBC is set to evaluate the probability beyond transmission Similarly, X and Y are renewable energy power and demand at each
bus. φX and φY are the probability density function connected with
capacity once contingencies occur. Meanwhile, categories of
contingency can be adopted according to the multi-year statistical X and Y. φz(z) is the probability density function of net renewable
data. The contingency flow is able to be computed quickly by energy power. S and L are sets of renewable energy generation as
means of multi-branch distribution factors [8, 9]. If the power well as demand. R is the total renewable energy power.
system has lost stability after contingencies, the network structure The limitation consumption of renewable energy Rmax can be
is deemed unadaptable and the index reset to 1: computed with two stages, first solving the optimal load-shedding
problem and then dealing with the optimal renewable energy
N consumption problem.
∫
+∞
1
N i∑
POTBC = φi(xi)dxi (5) Stage1: The optimal load-shedding model aims at supplying the
=1 Si, max
demand at most, so as to guarantee enough power transferring:

3.4 Absence probability of load supply (PAPLS) min ∑ di (14)

i ∈ Nb
PAPLS calculates the probability of absence supply for load, of
which the structure-transporting limitation and stochastic
fluctuation are regarded as two important reasons. The former
s.t. ∑ Pg i + ∑ Pre j − ∑
, , Pi j = ∑ (Pd, k − dk) (15)
i ∈ Ng j ∈ Nr i j ∈ li j k ∈ Nb
condition's probability can be calculated as Eq. (6).
Pg, min ≤ Pg, i ≤ Pg, max, i ∈ Ng (16)
∫
+∞
PAPLS, 1 = φ(D)dD (6)
Dmax 0 ≤ di ≤ Pd, i, i ∈ Nb (17)

where φ(D) is the probability density function of demand and D Pi j = Bi jθi j, i j ∈ li j (18)
refers to the total demand of power system. Dmax is the maximal
demand supplied with special transmission structure. The Pi j, min ≤ Pi j ≤ Pi j, max, i j ∈ li j (19)
computation method of it can refer to [10]. The simulation of
stochastic contingencies depends on Monte Carlo method by where di is the load-shedding of bus i. Pg,i, Pre,j and Pd,k are the
producing element state randomly based on the failure rate.
power of conventional generator, renewable energy generator and
As for the second condition, it only needs to consider about the
load. Pij, Bij are respectively the power flow and the admittance of
balance of supply and demand without structure limitation. We
employ convolution calculation based on the probability density to branch line lij. θij is the phase difference of bus i and j. Pij,min and
deal with the uncertainty of source and demand. For example, we Pij,max are the minimal and maximal branch power flow. Pg,min and

2 J. Eng.
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Pg,max are minimal and maximal output power of generator. Ng, Nr, occurred based on the contingency rate of generations and branch
Nb and lij are respectively sets of conventional generator, lines by means of roulette.
renewable energy generator, bus and branch line. Step4: Compute the maximal supply and consumption power.
Stage2: With the optimal load distribution d* computed from The limitation supply power of demand and consumption of
stage 1, this stage concentrates on maximal renewable energy renewable energy, are optimised through the maximal energy
consumption: supply model and maximal renewable energy consumption model.
Step5: Solve the optimal economic dispatch model. The specific
operation mode comes from the optimal economic dispatch model,
min ∑ ri (20) which takes the minimal operation cost, renewable energy
i ∈ Nr
curtailment punishment and load-shedding fund as the objective.
Step6: Deal with the index of POTBC. If simulation
s.t. ∑ Pg i + ∑ (Pre j − r j) − ∑
, , Pi j
contingencies cause the system to be unstable conditions, set
i ∈ Ng j ∈ Nr i j ∈ li j
(21) POTBC as 1. Otherwise, just calculate the contingency power flow,
= ∑ (Pd, k − dk*)
such by quick-contingency power flow computation through multi-
k ∈ Nb
branch distribution factors.
Pg, min ≤ Pg, i ≤ Pg, max, i ∈ Ng (22) Step7: Count probability distribution of power flow and
calculate the ith iteration adaptability indexes Padapt,i through (1),
0 ≤ r j ≤ Pre, j, j ∈ Nr (23) (2),(5),(6),(9),(10) and (14) respectively.
Step8: Compute expectation of adaptability indexes. The
Pi j = Bi jθi j, i j ∈ li j purpose of this step is to reduce the influence of index instability in
(24)
the beginning:
Pi j, min ≤ Pi j ≤ Pi j, max, i j ∈ li j (25) i
∑k = 1 Padapt, k
Ei = (30)
where ri is the energy-curtailment of bus i. i
With the above two computation stages, Rmax is proposed as Eq.
where Ek represents the expectation of former iterations. Padapt,i is
(26).
the adaptability index of ith iteration.
Step9: Calculate the convergence factor by (33). Stop Monte
Rmax = ∑ (Pre j − r j) , (26) Carlo simulation when max {VEBLR, VCFRB, VOTBC, VAPLS, VACRE}
j ∈ Nr
≤ɛ. Otherwise, update the iteration count by k = k + 1, then return
to step3.
4 Evaluation procedure of structure adaptability
A practical calculation method of structure adaptability is Vσ = ∑ (Ek − Eavg) /(k − 1)/Eavg
2
(31)
presented and the specific steps are introduced as follows: n
Step1: Set system basic parameters. Input initial data of power
system and set simulation count k as 0. In Eq. (31), Vσ and Eavg are respectively on behalf of the
Step2: Get forecast error distribution. The probability convergence factor and the average of array {Ei,i = 1,2…k}.
distribution of forecast error to renewable energy and demand,
respectively, are formed according to the history data and obeyed
the normal distribution. The factual power of demand is computed 5 Case study
as follows: The proposed approach is applied to a modified IEEE 30-bus
system in [11] with the integration of high proportion wind energy.
f cst f cst
P̄load, t = Pload, t + ΔPload, t (27) The wind speed satisfies the Weibull distribution with parameters
W(c,k) = W(11,2). Concentration wind turbines with 120 MW
f cst capacity are joined into bus 3, 18, 24 and 29 respectively, in order
where Pload, t is the forecast demand. ΔPload, t is the forecast error. to form the high-penetration renewable energy system. Moreover,
f cst
And P̄load, t is the factual demand. the fluctuant demand variables are supposed to obey the normal
Considering the time relevance, the adjacent forecast error is distribution, in which the standard deviation approximately equals
supposed to be computed as difference sequence ηt,k: 15% average. Correspondingly, the total demand adds up to 600 
MW for rapid increasing sources.
real f cst real f cst
ηt, k = εt + k t − εt + k − 1 t = (Pre , t − Pre, t ) − (Pre, t − 1 − Pre, t − 1) (28)
5.1 Convergence analysis of adaptability index
real
Where Pre and
,t Pref cst
are factual and forecast power of renewable
,t Before evaluating the structure adaptability, it is of great
energy generation at time t. In order to get every time's forecast importance to verify the index consistency. The adaptability
error, we can get the initial error power by sampling from the indexes are computed with Monte Carlo simulation. With the
probability distribution function. Then every time's forecast error sampling number gradually increasing, the changing process of
can be obtained by the difference sequence ηt,k. Similarly, the adaptability indexes and convergence factors is shown in Fig. 1.
factual power of renewable energy is computed as follows: From the perspective of fluctuation, Fig. 1 indicates that the
adaptability indexes universally meet with big local fluctuation in
f cst the beginning. However, all indexes converge to a constant
P̄re, t = Pref cst
, t + ΔPre, t (29)
ultimately with a small fluctuation. Furthermore, the convergence
factors Vσ can be used to display the convergence process of
Step3: Get stochastic scenarios. Monte Carlo method can be used
indexes numerically. Compared with other indexes, PEBLR has the
to give out stochastic renewable energy power and fluctuant
demand, on the basis of error distribution function and day-ahead big convergence factor all the time from the bottom histogram,
forecast. On this paper, Nataf transformation and Latin hypercube which means the average utilisation of branches varies a lot from
sampling method are employed to construct stochastic samples, different stochastic scenarios. Owing to the insufficient sampling
which have the main advantage of high accurate solution with less process at first, the index shows big fluctuation until enough
computation. Also, it is almost unconstrained for the probability samples are joined in. With the decreasing trend, if the threshold ɛ
distributions of the input random variables. The contingencies are is set as 0.01, max{Vσ} satisfies the convergence requirement when
the sampling number gets to 6000. At the same time, we have

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Fig. 1  Convergence trend of adaptability index
Fig. 2  Diagram of AC/DC hybrid network
researched the influence of threshold ɛ to indexes. Taking POTBC as
the example, with ɛ value reducing from 0.1 to 0.001, the final
convergence index drops to a constant. That means over-
transferring probability under contingency behaves conservative
with an improper ɛ. Besides, the simulation time raises up
gradually with no higher precision getting once ɛ decreases
exceeding some value. On this paper, we just set ɛ as 0.01 in all
computation.
5.2 Evaluation of structure adaptability
This section compares the structure adaptability of AC and AC/DC
transmission network respectively on the condition of conventional
and high-penetration renewable energy. For constructing the
AC/DC hybrid transmission network, the IEEE 30-bus network is
partitioned into three areas. All tie-lines among three zones are
replaced by DC lines, on which parallel reactance is removed out.
The DC lines employ a two-terminal DC transferring model with
sides of rectification and inversion. The AC/DC hybrid power flow
is computed based on a general unified AC/DC power flow
algorithm referring [12] and the specific parameters can be looked
up in [13]. The diagram of AC/DC hybrid network is illustrated in
Fig. 2.
Based on two categories of network structure, two comparison
scenarios are formed in order to research the influence of high-
penetration renewable energy toward structure adaptability. The
first scenario takes the symbol of deterministic condition with no
renewable energy integrated. Besides, the capacity of conventional
turbines raises up to 2.5 times about 750 MW with a 25% reserve
rate. The second scenario is integrated with four wind turbines as
described at the beginning of this section. The total proportion of
renewable energy on this power system reaches 42%, which
accords with the condition of H-RE integration.
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As shown in Table 1, by comparing two scenarios for the AC
network, we can conclude that H-RE decreases the utilisation rate
of branch lines both for AC and AC/DC network, resulting in a
superior drop in PEBLR. Therefore, due to the low utilisation
especially appearing with H-RE, it is of great importance for
transmission expansion to take the utilisation as one of the targets.
H-RE causes power system to be caught in a big fluctuation, where
PCFRB rises from 0.4 to 18.7% especially for AC network.
However, owing to the low load factor of branch lines, the network
structure behaves higher adaptability to contingencies apparently,
which reduces POTBC to 6.9% ultimately. Though PAPLS has a
slight rising with HRE integration, two kinds of structure both have
the ability to supply adequate power for demand. At the same time,
there appears to be a lack of renewable energy for AC network,
which approximately occupies 20.4%.
Comparing the adaptability of AC and AC/DC network in H-
RE power system, because of the automatic adjustment of power
converter, AC/DC structure is adept in homogenising and
restraining the power flow, which cuts down the fluctuation rate
from 18.7 to 3.2%. However, high contingency rate of electronics,
especially with the characteristic of losing control under
contingency, lead to the absence of contingency adaptability.
Furthermore, the consumption limitation of renewable energy
raises up thanks to the joined DC lines, which can be drawn up
from the changing trend of PACRE.
5.3 Influence of renewable energy penetration to structure
adaptability
The penetration of renewable energy increases from 0 to 100% for
researching the influence of different proportions, which is defined
as the ratio of renewable energy capacity and demand capacity.
The adaptability results of AC and AC/DC network are shown
in Figs. 3 and 4. As can be observed from the figure, the value of
PEBLR decreases gradually to a constant. That means the economic
adaptability is going to drop owing to the structure limitation. After
that, it keeps unchangeable restrained to the highlighted network
structure once penetration exceeds a specific threshold. As AC/DC
hybrid network structure turns out to be stronger than the AC
network, the threshold of former brings forward to 40%
approximately. Furthermore, the fluctuation of network appears to
have the transformation from rapid to slow growth. Fig. 3 indicates
that the rapid growth ranges from 30 to 80% for AC network.
Generally, the AC/DC hybrid network behaves to have the
stabilising function of power flow regardless of the penetration,
which devotes a slight growth in terms of AC/DC network. The
contingency adaptability is similar to economic adaptability, which
can be illustrated from the same trend both in Figs. 3 and Fig. 4.
Meanwhile, as the proposed conclusion above, the serious absence
of power for demand neither occurs in two kinds of structure. The
network structure hardly restricts the consumption of renewable
energy in the prophase, however, the limitation highlights with the
increasing penetration and turns gentle in the later period. On the
whole, the structure adaptability of AC/DC network performs more
stable in contrast to the AC network.
5.4 Comparison of different structure adaptability in hybrid
AC/DC transmission network
In the previous section, it is found that hybrid AC/DC network
behaves excellent adaptability in economic and fluctuation,
however, which is merely restrained to a special link type. In order
to investigate the influence of typical links to adaptability, four
representative structures are established in this paper, including
single-networking HVDC, multi-sending HVDC, multi-feeding
HVDC and multi-sending and feeding HVDC respectively. The
structures are presented in Fig. 5 and results of indexes are shown
in Table 2 visually with the purpose of comparing structure
characteristics.
It can be observed from Table 2 that different structures have
entirely various adaptability. That is to say, exploiting advantages
of different structures is an effective way to tackle with the
integration of H-RE. It should be emphasised that, structure 3
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Table 1 Results of adaptability index
Type Scenario PEBLR PCFRB POTBC PAPLS PACRE
AC network 1 0.705 0.004 0.520 0.003 0
2 0.321 0.187 0.069 0.054 0.204
AC/DC network 1 0.877 0.001 0.285 0.012 0
2 0.562 0.032 0.219 0.082 0.143

Fig. 3  Trend chart of adaptability index of AC network structure under different ratio of renewable energy

Fig. 4  Trend chart of adaptability index for AC/DC hybrid network structure under different ratio of renewable energy

Fig. 5  Different networking methods of AC/DC hybrid network

(a) Single-networking HVDC, (b) Multi-sending HVDC, (c) Multi-feeding HVDC, (d) Multi-sending & feeding HVDC

Table 2 Results of structure adaptability index for different AC/DC hybrid networks
Link type number PEBLR PCFRB POTBC PAPLS PACRE
AC/DC hybrid network 1 0.525 0.067 0.133 0.129 0.236
2 0.608 0.073 0.169 0.092 0.197
3 0.632 0.065 0.209 0.089 0.183
4 0.367 0.090 0.090 0.023 0.143

makes the utmost of the network, which poses superior economic probable to take place for this structure, which gives rise to POTBC
adaptability than other structures. However, over-loading is more 11% higher than structure 4. As for resisting of disturbance, four

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kinds of structures have generally admirable ability facing up to H-
RE, which is beneficial from the auto-adjustment of DC lines with
the help of LCC-HVDC, VSC-HVDC and other hybrid
technologies. Furthermore, Table 2 indicates that structure 4 has
advantageous contingency adaptability, demand–supply
adaptability and consumption adaptability than other three
structures.
6 Conclusion
A series of structure adaptability indexes are proposed in this paper
based on the basic characteristic of adaptability, which can take
into account the economic, safety, fluctuation, power supply and
renewable energy consumption. Monte Carlo simulation method
and the optimal economic model are applied to calculate the
comprehensive evaluation indexes. Case studies are carried out on
the modified IEEE 30-bus system, and the simulation results show
that the proposed indexes can effectively reflect the adaptability of
different network structures with the integration of H-RE.
Furthermore, different influencing factors of adaptability such as
different penetration and typical HVDC networks are researched to
dig out the change regulation by comparing adaptability indexes.
The simulation results indicate that the structure adaptability of
AC/DC hybrid networks performs more stable comparing with AC
networks. Also, the AC/DC hybrid networks have a generally
excellent performance in controlling and stabling of power flow
7 Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Key Research and
Development Program of China (No.2016YFB0900100).
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