5/27/2019 European Election Results Show Growing Split Over Union’s Future - The New York Times

European Election Results Show Growing

Split Over Unionʼs Future
By Steven Erlanger

May 26, 2019

BRUSSELS — Populists and nationalists who want to chip away at the European Union’s powers
increased their share in Europe’s Parliament after four days of continent-wide elections, but it
was not the deluge that many traditionalists had feared.

When the vote counting is done, the populists are expected to get around 25 percent of the 751
seats, up from 20 percent five years ago, figures released by the European Union showed on
Sunday.

But a higher than usual turnout suggested that pro-European voters were also more motivated
than before.

[Read more on the important gains made by Spanish Socialists.]

Taken together, the results indicated that the struggle over the future direction of the bloc — more
integration among European countries, or less — would only intensify.

With more of a voice in Parliament, populists and nationalists would be expected to try to push
harder on issues like controlling immigration and the budget. And they are likely to try to gum up
the plans of the pro-Europeans, pressing for more power to go to the nations rather than to a
bureaucracy they consider elitist.

Still, the anti-E.U. forces remain disparate and divided, and may have trouble wielding significant
power.

[What Nigel Farage’s big win means for Brexit.]

Instead, the biggest impact was likely to be felt exactly where the far-right and populist leaders
most wanted — in their home countries, particularly in France and Italy, where they are
threatening to further disrupt traditional party systems and angling to gain power. For months,
they have promoted these elections as a litmus test of their popularity.

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5/27/2019 European Election Results Show Growing Split Over Union’s Future - The New York Times

President Emmanuel Macron of France after casting his ballot on Sunday for the E.U.
Parliament. French voters handed him an embarrassing defeat.
Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via Shutterstock

“The electorate is crying out for change and is therefore volatile — preferring to back new
insurgents rather than the status quo parties that have been around for decades,” said Mark
Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The fear of a far-right takeover
of the European Parliament has mobilized Europe’s pro-European forces, resulting in a huge
surge in turnout and in support for Green and Liberal parties throughout Europe.”

[Spanish Socialists made important gains in three different elections, strengthening the hand of the
prime minister.]

On Sunday, the results quickly reverberated across the political scene from Rome to Paris.

In France, the vote results on Sunday suggested a difficult time ahead for President Emmanuel
Macron, who has presented himself as a champion of European integration and a bulwark against
those who wish to weaken it. His slate for the European Parliament being defeated by the
National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, an outspoken critic of the bloc, according to final results.

The defeat appeared to be by a small margin — but it would be enough to deal a symbolic blow to
the young president.

Ms. Le Pen called the result “a vote for France, and for the people.”

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5/27/2019 European Election Results Show Growing Split Over Union’s Future - The New York Times

Mr. Macron’s prime minister, Édouard Philippe, conceded defeat and said that he received “these
results with humility.” He said that “political leaders need to hear the message” and that it was “a
time for action.”

Turnout was expected to top 50 percent in France, significantly higher than the 42 percent of five
years ago.

The same was true for the European Union as a whole, the first increase in turnout in 40 years
and the best since 1994.

The Green Party made big gains in Germany. Omer Messinger/EPA, via Shutterstock

[Here is a guide to our European Parliament election coverage.]

In Germany, where turnout was also high, the Greens did very well, becoming the main party on
the left, while the Social Democratic Party did very badly, which may prompt the party to leave
the existing coalition.

The largest party, the governing Christian Democrats, also lost some ground, while the far-right
populists, the Alternative for Germany, got about 11 percent. It appeared to be a weaker showing
for the party than in the national elections of 2017, when it won 12.6 percent.
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5/27/2019 European Election Results Show Growing Split Over Union’s Future - The New York Times

In the European Parliament, with the decline of mainstream parties and increased fragmentation,
for the first time in 40 years the center-right and the center-left would no longer control a
majority. Both lost ground, with centrist Liberals, Greens and the populists all gaining.

While pro-European mainstream parties appear to have won about two-thirds of the seats, the
center-right and center-left will have to cooperate in coalition with the Liberals, helped by Mr.
Macron’s party, to form a sustainable majority. And the Greens, who did well all over the
continent, will have a louder voice.

Leaders of the two largest mainstream parties in the European Parliament ruled out working
with the far right and appealed for cooperation among pro-European parties.

Manfred Weber, leader of the center-right European People’s Party, said Sunday night that “from
now on, those who want to have a strong European Union have to join forces.” He said his group
would not cooperate “with any party that doesn’t believe in the future of the European Union.”

Centrists took some solace from the results.

“Defying the doomsayers once again, Europe continues to muddle through reasonably well,” said
Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg, a German bank.

Voters picking up ballots in Lyon, France, on Sunday. Laurent Cipriani/Associated Press

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5/27/2019 European Election Results Show Growing Split Over Union’s Future - The New York Times

“Previous gains for populist parties at the national level, as well as the challenges of Brexit,
Trump, China and Russia, have elicited some counterreaction of the pro-European mainstream,”
he said. He called it part of a “largely healthy debate about the future of European integration.”

Mr. Leonard, the European Council on Foreign Relations director, said that “contrary to
predictions, there has been no continentwide shift to far-right or anti-European parties.”

But the decline in vote share for what he called “status quo parties” is “a warning that business as
usual is not an option,” he said. “The composition of the new Parliament will be weighed in favor
of pro-Europeans, but it does not mean that they have a mandate for ʻmore of the same.”’

This year’s European Parliament vote drew more interest than any of the bloc’s votes in the last
decade. Observers looked to it to gauge the popularity of the various anti-immigration, anti-elite,
Euroskeptic parties across the bloc.

For the individual member states, the results were seen as judgments on the parties in power, no
more so than in major players like France, Germany, Italy and Poland.

In Belgium, which also held national and regional elections, there was a big victory in the Dutch-
speaking north of Flanders for Vlaams Belang, a far-right, anti-immigrant separatist party. It may
become the second-largest party in the Flemish parliament behind the N-VA, another nationalist
party. Greens and Socialists did well in Brussels and French-speaking Wallonia.

In Greece, after a bad defeat to conservatives, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, of the left populist
Syriza party, called for early elections, probably to take place in June instead of October. He is
thought to want to limit his party’s anticipated losses to New Democracy, which is expected to
win control of the government.

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The European People’s Party leader, Manfred Weber, casting his vote in Germany on
Sunday. Philipp Guelland/EPA, via Shutterstock

The German vote will be seen as a judgment on the center-left Social Democrats, on the far-right
Alternative for Germany and on the new leader of the Christian Democrats, Annegret Kramp-
Karrenbauer, who hopes to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Italy was being watched to see how well its deputy prime minister, the rollicking populist Matteo
Salvini of the League, did against his coalition partners, the Five Star movement. The fate of the
coalition appeared to be at stake. Mr. Salvini remains Europe’s champion proselytizer of the anti-
immigrant far right.

Mr. Salvini’s anti-immigrant, populist League came in first, with more than 34 percent, easily
surpassing the minimum necessary to be considered a success, according to provisional results.
He had aimed for more. Still, five years ago, the League won only 6.2 percent of the vote. Its
coalition partner, the left-populist Five Star Movement, was running third to the socialist
Democratic Party.

Mr. Salvini cast the vote as a referendum on Europe, and has improved his claim to lead the Euro-
antagonistic and nationalist forces inside the European Union.

While the varying populists will try to vote as a bloc, they are not expected to be able to form a
single grouping, as there are fervent differences among them on issues like Russia, regional aid
and the distribution of migrants throughout the bloc.

The one thing the varying populists do agree on is disrupting the system, and they are bound to
make consensus more difficult on future European budgets and legislation. This European
Parliament will simply be messier and harder to control than before.

Britain was a special case, given its plans to leave the European Union. The election was seen
more as a judgment on the two main parties — the governing Conservatives and the opposition
Labour — rather than any continental issue.

The results looked to be a disaster for both main parties, with a resounding victory for the new
Brexit Party of Nigel Farage. But the impact will be more on British domestic politics than
European politics.

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5/27/2019 European Election Results Show Growing Split Over Union’s Future - The New York Times

Historically, turnout for European parliamentary elections is low, and voters tend to use the five-
year elections as a way to protest their national governments. Most voters cast ballots on
national issues, for national parties, which then gather into political groupings in the European
Parliament.

Reporting was contributed by Adam Nossiter from Paris, Jason Horowitz and Elisabetta Povoledo in Rome, Marc Santora in
Warsaw, Melissa Eddy in Berlin and Niki Kitsantonis in Athens

A version of this article appears in print on May 27, 2019, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Far Right Is Seen Making Inroads
As Europe Votes

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