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STRUCTURAL
RELIABILITY
Module # 06
Lecture 4

Course Format: Web

Instructor:
Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty
Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati
4. Lecture 04: System Reliability

Till now, the discussions are concentrated on failure probability or reliability analysis at the
elemental level of the structures. The examples discussed in the previous chapters are on design
of any beam or column of the civil structures. Some idea about load model and code calibration
is also given in the preceding lectures. A civil structure is consisted number of such elements.
For the whole structure, its strength depends on the strength of this elements and its probabilistic
behaviour is dependent on the of the individual component’s performance, which is random in
nature. If civil engineering structures are compared with a system then to evaluate its
performance under certain condition, reliability of its element must be known to us. The
reliability of component is the performance under the condition for which it is made. For a
system, failure can occurred in various ways and depends on the combination of its component
failure. Combining this failure modes structure reliability can be obtained. In a broad way system
is classified in three classes: (1) series system, (2) parallel or redundant system and (3) mixed
system.

Figure 6.4.1 Series system

Series System

In this system, as like in a chain, if a single component’s performance is below the satisfactory
level i.e. failure the system undergoes failure. So series system failure depends on its weakest
element. A statistically determined structure is an example of series system because failure any
one of its member will be reason of whole structure failure. As shown in Figure 6.3.1, if it is
assumed that only columns will undergo failure then it will represent a series system. To
illustrate the concept, a block diagram is shown in Figure 6.3.2, where block 3 is indicated as
weakest. So failure of 3 will be cause of failure of whole system.

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability

1 2 3 N

Figure 6.4.2 Block diagram for series system

For reliability of the system, every component should function satisfactory

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 𝑃(𝑆1 ∩ 𝑆2 ∩ … ∩ 𝑆𝑛 ) 6.4.1

In Eq. 6.3.1, 𝑆1 is the event that component 𝑖 will work satisfactory, 𝑝𝑠𝑠 is the probability of
survival of the system. If the events 𝑆𝑖 are independent, then

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 𝑃 𝑆1 𝑃 𝑆2 … 𝑃 𝑆𝑛
𝑛
6.4.2
= 1 − 𝑝𝑓𝑖
𝑖=1

where, 𝑝𝑓𝑖 is the probability of failure of the component. This type of system is also known as
weakest link model. In civil engineering field, the value of 𝑝𝑓𝑖 is very small. So, Eq. 6.3.2 can be
further modified as

𝑝𝑠𝑠 ≃ 1 − 𝑝𝑓𝑖 𝑎𝑠 𝑝𝑓𝑖 ≪ 1 6.4.3

𝑖=1

and

𝑝𝑓𝑠 ≃ 𝑝𝑓𝑖 6.4.4

𝑖=1

here, 𝑝𝑓𝑠 is probability of failure of system.

Parallel or Redundant System

If the elements in a structure oriented such a way that failure of one or two components does not
influence the failure of the whole structure then this structural system will be classed in parallel
system. In Figure 6.3.3 shows a system in which failure considered only in columns. So failure
of one or two column will not be reason for failure of the structure. In Figure 6.3.4, a block
diagram is shown for a parallel system.

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability

Figure 6.4.3 Parallel system

N
Figure 6.4.4 Block diagram for parallel system

The reliability of this system would be

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 1 − 𝑝𝑓𝑠
6.4.5
= 1 − 𝑃 𝑆𝑐1 ∩ 𝑆𝑐2 ∩ … ∩ 𝑆𝑐𝑛

here, 𝑆𝑖𝑐 is the event that component 𝑖 does not function satisfactory. If the events 𝑆𝑖𝑐 are
independent then Eq. 6.3.5 can be written as

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability
𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑆1𝑐 𝑃 𝑆2𝑐 … 𝑃 𝑆𝑛𝑐
𝑛
6.4.6
= 1− 𝑝𝑓𝑖
𝑖=1

Mixed System

This class of system is combination of series and parallel system. A real structure is combination
of the series and parallel system. To perform the objective, both series and parallel system is
required in action together. In Figure 6.3.5, the block diagram model is shown. To evaluate
mixed system reliability, it can be visualized as consisting two subsystems A1 and A2. Here, A1 is

1
3 4
2
A2
A1

Figure 6.4.5 Block diagram for mixed system

parallel system and A2 is series system. Reliability of the system is given by

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 𝑃 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 6.4.7

where, 𝐸𝑖 is the event that subsystem Ai function satisfactory. Now for individual subsystem the
system reliability can be computed as discussed above. So, mixed system reliability would be

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 𝑃 𝐸1 𝑃 𝐸2
6.4.8
= 1 − 𝑝𝑓𝑠1 1 − 𝑝𝑓𝑠2

here, 𝑝𝑓𝑠𝑖 belongs to each subsystem. To get the above expression it is assumed that events Ai
are statically independent.

Example

Ex#04: For a series system, given failure probability of its four components are given as

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability
𝑝𝑓1 = 0.1; 𝑝𝑓2 = 0.2; 𝑝𝑓3 = 0.3; 𝑝𝑓4 = 0.4

(i) compute the system reliability. (ii) compute the system reliability assuming system as parallel
and (iii) considering mixed system shown in Figure 6.3.5, compare the system reliability.

Solution:

(i) For series system, system reliability would be (Eq. 6.3.2)

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 1 − 0.1 (1 − 0.2)(1 − 0.3)(1 − 0.4)

= 0.3024
(ii) For parallel system, system reliability would be (Eq. 6.3.6)

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 1 − (0.1)(0.2)(0.3)(0.4)
= 0.9976
(ii) For mixed system

Reliability of subsystem A1 is

𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 1 − (0.1)(0.2)
= 0.98

Reliability of subsystem A2 is

𝑃(𝐸2 ) = (1 − 0.3)(1 − 0.4)

= 0.42

Hence, the reliability of the mixed system would be (Eq. 6.3.8)

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 𝑃 𝐸1 𝑃 𝐸2
= 0.98 (0.42)
= 0.4116

In this example it is observe that with same component different system reliability can be
achieved by orienting the component in number of combination.

Ex#05: A rigid steel frame is shown in Figure 6.3.6 and its properties are given as

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability
𝜇𝑀1 = 𝜇𝑀2 = 𝜇𝑀6 = 𝜇𝑀7 = 475 kNm
𝜎𝑀1 = 𝜎𝑀2 = 𝜎𝑀6 = 𝜎𝑀7 = 71.25 kNm
𝜇𝑀3 = 𝜇𝑀4 = 𝜇𝑀5 = 675 kNm
𝜎𝑀3 = 𝜎𝑀4 = 𝜎𝑀5 = 101.25 kNm
𝜇𝑊 = 480 kNm 𝜎𝑊 = 72 kNm
W
W
W
3 5 3 5 3 5

2 4 6 2 6 2 6
4 4

1 7 1 7 1 7
(a) (b) (c)

W W
3 5 3 5

2 6 2 6
4 4

1 7 1 7
(d) (e)

1 2 3 4

Figure 6.4.6 (a) Rigid Frame, failure modes (b) 1, (c) 2, (d) 3, (e) 4 and block diagram of
modes

where, 𝑀𝑖 is plastic moment capacity of section 𝑖. Here, all 𝑀𝑖 , 𝑊 are independent and all
variables are normally distributed. Evaluate the system reliability.

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability
Solution: The frame will face failure if hinge form locations are 2, 4 and 6 or 3, 4 and 5 or 3, 4
and 6 or 2, 4 and 5 as shown in Figure 6.3.6 (b)-(e).

From virtual work theory in plastic analysis, for safety of frame of failure mode 1

𝑀2 𝜃 + 2𝑀4 𝜃 + 𝑀6 𝜃 > 3𝑊𝜃

where, 𝜃 is the virtual rotation of section 2. So, safety margin is

𝐺 = 𝑀2 + 2𝑀4 + 𝑀6 − 3𝑊

So, the survival probability of the frame under any mode is 𝑝𝑠 = 𝑃(𝐺 ≥ 0). To evaluate the
parameter of 𝐺 is

𝜇𝐺 = 𝜇𝑀2 + 2𝜇𝑀4 + 𝜇𝑀6 − 3𝜇𝑊

= 475 + 2 × 675 + 475 − 3 × 480
= 860 kNm
1
𝜎𝐺 = 12 × 71.252 + 22 × 101.252 + 12 × 71.252 + 32 × 722 2
= 312.755 kNm

Here, all variables are independent, normally distributed and as 𝐺 depends on them linearly. So,
𝐺 will be also a normal variable. The probability of failure of the frame under the mode 1 is

𝜇𝐺
𝑝𝑓1 = 𝑃 𝐺 < 0 = 𝛷 −
𝜎𝐺
860
=𝛷 −
312.755
= 𝛷(−2.75)
= 2.982 × 10−3

Similarly for other modes shown in Figure 6.3.6 (c)-(e), failure probability is calculated below

Table 6.4.1 Failure probability calculation

Mode
𝑮𝒊 𝝁𝑮𝒊 𝝈𝑮𝒊 𝒑𝒇𝒊 𝜷
No
1 𝑀2 + 2𝑀4 + 𝑀6 − 3𝑊 860 312.75 2.98 × 10−03 2.75
2 𝑀3 + 2𝑀4 + 𝑀5 − 3𝑊 1260 328.89 6.38 × 10−05 3.83
3 𝑀2 + 2𝑀4 + 𝑀5 − 3𝑊 1060 320.92 4.78 × 10−04 3.30
4 𝑀3 + 2𝑀4 + 𝑀6 − 3𝑊 1060 320.92 4.78 × 10−04 3.30

From block model shown in Figure 6.3.6 it is observed that this system is a series system. It is
intentionally assume that all failure modes are statistically independent (though it is not case). So
system reliability can be evaluated from Eq. 6.3.2

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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 Lecture 04: System Reliability
4

𝑝𝑠𝑠 = 1 − 𝑝𝑓 𝑖
𝑖=1
= 1 − 2.98 × 10−03 1 − 6.38 × 10−05
× 1 − 4.78 × 10−04 1 − 4.78 × 10−04
= 0.9960

The probability of failure of the system is

𝑝𝑓𝑠 = 1 − 𝑝𝑠𝑠
= 1 − 0.9960
= 4.0 × 10−03

Course Instructor: Dr. Arunasis Chakraborty

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