You are on page 1of 8

LLUVIAS MÁXIMAS (mm)

Latitud : 7O 37' 37' Departamento : Cajamarca ESTACIÓN CLIMATOLÓGICA ORD.:


Longitud :  78O 3' 2'' Provincia : Cajabamba CAJABAMBA
Altitud : 2612 Distrito : Cajabamba
P.Máx.24h. DURACION EN MINUTOS
AÑO
(mm) 5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1985 41.0 9.95 11.84 15.58 18.52 22.03 23.29 25.03 25.63
1986 51.0 12.38 14.72 19.37 23.04 27.40 28.97 31.14 31.89
1987 45.0 10.92 12.99 17.10 20.33 24.18 25.56 27.47 28.13
1988 37.0 8.98 10.68 14.06 16.72 19.88 21.02 22.59 23.13
1989 29.0 7.04 8.37 11.02 13.10 15.58 16.47 17.70 18.13
1990 32.5 7.89 9.38 12.35 14.68 17.46 18.46 19.84 20.32
1991 35.0 8.49 10.10 13.30 15.81 18.81 19.88 21.37 21.88
1992 27.0 6.55 7.79 10.26 12.20 14.51 15.34 16.48 16.88
1993 47.0 11.41 13.57 17.86 21.23 25.25 26.70 28.69 29.38
1994 27.6 6.70 7.97 10.49 12.47 14.83 15.68 16.85 17.26
1995 38.3 9.30 11.06 14.55 17.30 20.58 21.76 23.38 23.95
1996 36.0 8.74 10.39 13.68 16.26 19.34 20.45 21.98 22.51
1997 45.8 11.12 13.22 17.40 20.69 24.61 26.02 27.96 28.63
1998 65.4 15.87 18.88 24.85 29.55 35.14 37.15 39.93 40.89
1999 36.7 8.91 10.60 13.94 16.58 19.72 20.85 22.41 22.94
2000 30.0 7.28 8.66 11.40 13.55 16.12 17.04 18.32 18.76
2001 48.6 11.80 14.03 18.46 21.96 26.11 27.61 29.67 30.38
2002 49.3 11.97 14.23 18.73 22.27 26.49 28.01 30.10 30.82
2003 39.0 9.47 11.26 14.82 17.62 20.95 22.16 23.81 24.38
2004 36.5 8.86 10.54 13.87 16.49 19.61 20.74 22.28 22.82
2005 37.1 9.00 10.71 14.09 16.76 19.93 21.08 22.65 23.19
2006 65.7 15.95 18.97 24.96 29.68 35.30 37.32 40.11 41.08
2007 40.0 9.71 11.55 15.20 18.07 21.49 22.72 24.42 25.01
2008 40.9 9.93 11.81 15.54 18.48 21.98 23.24 24.97 25.57
2009 56.5 13.71 16.31 21.46 25.53 30.36 32.10 34.49 35.32
2010 43.9 10.65 12.67 16.68 19.83 23.59 24.94 26.80 27.45
2011 55.7 13.52 16.08 21.16 25.17 29.93 31.64 34.00 34.82
2012 44.9 10.90 12.96 17.06 20.29 24.12 25.51 27.41 28.07
2013 49.5 12.01 14.29 18.81 22.36 26.60 28.12 30.22 30.95
2014 36.0 8.74 10.39 13.68 16.26 19.34 20.45 21.98 22.51
Prom 42.3 10.26 12.20 16.06 19.09 22.71 24.01 25.80 26.42
Desv. Est 10.0 2.42 2.88 3.79 4.51 5.37 5.67 6.10 6.24

0.2427 0.4518 0.5373 0.5681 0.6105 0.6252

9.95 18.52 22.03 23.29 25.03 25.63


Para el caso de duraciones de tormenta menores a 3 horas
metodología de Dick Peschke (Guevara, 1991)
INTENSIDADES (mm/h)

Latitud : 7O 37' 37' Departamento : Cajamarca ESTACIÓN CLIMATOLÓGICA ORD.:


Longitud :  78O 3' 2'' Provincia : Cajabamba CAJABAMBA
Altitud : 2612 Distrito : Cajabamba
DURACION EN MINUTOS
AÑO P.Máx.24h.
5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1985 41.00 119.43 71.02 31.15 18.52 11.01 9.32 7.51 6.99
1986 51.00 148.53 88.34 38.75 23.04 13.70 11.59 9.34 8.70
1987 45.00 131.06 77.95 34.19 20.33 12.09 10.23 8.24 7.67
1988 37.00 107.76 64.09 28.11 16.72 9.94 8.41 6.78 6.31
1989 29.00 84.46 50.23 22.03 13.10 7.79 6.59 5.31 4.94
1990 32.50 94.65 56.30 24.69 14.68 8.73 7.39 5.95 5.54
1991 35.00 101.93 60.63 26.59 15.81 9.40 7.95 6.41 5.97
1992 27.00 78.63 46.77 20.51 12.20 7.25 6.14 4.95 4.60
1993 47.00 136.88 81.41 35.71 21.23 12.63 10.68 8.61 8.01
1994 27.60 80.38 47.81 20.97 12.47 7.41 6.27 5.05 4.71
1995 38.30 111.54 66.34 29.10 17.30 10.29 8.70 7.01 6.53
1996 36.00 104.85 62.36 27.35 16.26 9.67 8.18 6.59 6.14
1997 45.80 133.39 79.33 34.80 20.69 12.30 10.41 8.39 7.81
1998 65.40 190.47 113.29 49.69 29.55 17.57 14.86 11.98 11.15
1999 36.70 106.89 63.57 27.88 16.58 9.86 8.34 6.72 6.26
2000 30.00 87.37 51.97 22.79 13.55 8.06 6.82 5.49 5.12
2001 48.60 141.54 84.18 36.93 21.96 13.06 11.04 8.90 8.29
2002 49.30 143.58 85.40 37.46 22.27 13.24 11.20 9.03 8.41
2003 39.00 113.58 67.56 29.63 17.62 10.48 8.86 7.14 6.65
2004 36.50 106.30 63.23 27.73 16.49 9.81 8.29 6.68 6.22
2005 37.10 108.05 64.26 28.19 16.76 9.97 8.43 6.79 6.33
2006 65.70 191.34 113.81 49.92 29.68 17.65 14.93 12.03 11.20
2007 40.00 116.50 69.29 30.39 18.07 10.75 9.09 7.33 6.82
2008 40.90 119.12 70.85 31.08 18.48 10.99 9.29 7.49 6.97
2009 56.50 164.55 97.87 42.93 25.53 15.18 12.84 10.35 9.63
2010 43.90 127.85 76.04 33.36 19.83 11.79 9.98 8.04 7.49
2011 55.70 162.22 96.48 42.32 25.17 14.96 12.66 10.20 9.50
2012 44.90 130.77 77.78 34.12 20.29 12.06 10.20 8.22 7.66
2013 49.50 144.16 85.74 37.61 22.36 13.30 11.25 9.07 8.44
2014 36.00 104.85 62.36 27.35 16.26 9.67 8.18 6.59 6.14

Prom 42.26 123.09 73.21 32.11 19.09 11.35 9.60 7.74 7.21
Desv. Est 9.99 29.09 17.30 7.59 4.51 2.68 2.27 1.83 1.70
I. TRANSPOSICIÓN DE INTENSIDADES (mm/hr)

CUENCA : PONTE DEPARTAMENTO : CAJAMARCA


Altitud Media : : 2700 msnm PROVINCIA : CAJABAMBA
DISTRITO : CAJABAMBA, CONDEBAMBA

(H media )
I 2 = I1 
H1

Donde: I2 : Intensidad de la cuenca Desconocida Hmedia : De la cuenca Desaconocida


I1 : Intensidad de la est. con información. H1 : Alt. de la est. con información

TABLA DE INTENSIDADES TRANSPUESTAS


DURACION EN MINUTOS
AÑO
5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1985 123.46 73.41 32.20 19.15 11.39 9.63 7.76 7.23
1986 153.54 91.32 40.06 23.82 14.16 11.98 9.66 8.99
1987 135.47 80.58 35.34 21.02 12.50 10.57 8.52 7.93
1988 111.39 66.25 29.06 17.28 10.27 8.69 7.00 6.52
1989 87.31 51.93 22.78 13.54 8.05 6.81 5.49 5.11
1990 97.84 58.19 25.53 15.18 9.03 7.63 6.15 5.73
1991 105.37 62.67 27.49 16.35 9.72 8.22 6.63 6.17
1992 81.28 48.35 21.21 12.61 7.50 6.34 5.11 4.76
1993 141.49 84.16 36.91 21.95 13.05 11.04 8.90 8.28
1994 83.09 49.42 21.68 12.89 7.66 6.48 5.23 4.86
1995 115.30 68.58 30.08 17.89 10.64 9.00 7.25 6.75
1996 108.38 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
1997 137.88 82.01 35.97 21.39 12.72 10.76 8.67 8.07
1998 196.89 117.10 51.37 30.54 18.16 15.36 12.38 11.53
1999 110.49 65.71 28.82 17.14 10.19 8.62 6.95 6.47
2000 90.32 53.72 23.56 14.01 8.33 7.05 5.68 5.29
2001 146.31 87.02 38.17 22.70 13.50 11.42 9.20 8.57
2002 148.42 88.27 38.72 23.02 13.69 11.58 9.33 8.69
2003 117.41 69.83 30.63 18.21 10.83 9.16 7.38 6.87
2004 109.88 65.36 28.67 17.05 10.14 8.57 6.91 6.43
2005 111.69 66.43 29.14 17.33 10.30 8.71 7.02 6.54
2006 197.79 117.64 51.60 30.68 18.24 15.43 12.44 11.58
2007 120.42 71.62 31.42 18.68 11.11 9.40 7.57 7.05
2008 123.13 73.23 32.12 19.10 11.36 9.61 7.74 7.21
2009 170.09 101.17 44.37 26.39 15.69 13.27 10.70 9.96
2010 132.16 78.61 34.48 20.50 12.19 10.31 8.31 7.74
2011 167.69 99.73 43.75 26.01 15.47 13.08 10.55 9.82
2012 135.17 80.40 35.26 20.97 12.47 10.55 8.50 7.91
2013 149.02 88.63 38.88 23.12 13.75 11.63 9.37 8.72
2014 108.38 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
PROMEDIO (X): 127.24 75.67 33.19 19.74 11.74 9.93 8.00 7.45
DESV. EST. (S): 30.07 17.88 7.84 4.66 2.77 2.35 1.89 1.76
Ordenamos los datos del cuadro anterior de mayor a menor para poder realizar la prueba:

PARA EL MODELO MATEMÁTICO DE GUMBEL

1.- PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE (SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV)

DURACION EN MINUTOS
m 5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220
1 197.8 117.64 51.60 30.68 18.24 15.43 12.44 11.58
2 196.9 117.10 51.37 30.54 18.16 15.36 12.38 11.53
3 170.1 101.17 44.37 26.39 15.69 13.27 10.70 9.96
4 167.7 99.73 43.75 26.01 15.47 13.08 10.55 9.82
5 153.5 91.32 40.06 23.82 14.16 11.98 9.66 8.99
6 149.0 88.63 38.88 23.12 13.75 11.63 9.37 8.72
7 148.4 88.27 38.72 23.02 13.69 11.58 9.33 8.69
8 146.3 87.02 38.17 22.70 13.50 11.42 9.20 8.57
9 141.5 84.16 36.91 21.95 13.05 11.04 8.90 8.28
10 137.9 82.01 35.97 21.39 12.72 10.76 8.67 8.07
11 135.5 80.58 35.34 21.02 12.50 10.57 8.52 7.93
12 135.2 80.40 35.26 20.97 12.47 10.55 8.50 7.91
13 132.2 78.61 34.48 20.50 12.19 10.31 8.31 7.74
14 123.4 73.41 32.20 19.15 11.39 9.63 7.76 7.23
15 123.1 73.23 32.12 19.10 11.36 9.61 7.74 7.21
16 120.4 71.62 31.42 18.68 11.11 9.40 7.57 7.05
17 117.4 69.83 30.63 18.21 10.83 9.16 7.38 6.87
18 115.3 68.58 30.08 17.89 10.64 9.00 7.25 6.75
19 111.7 66.43 29.14 17.33 10.30 8.71 7.02 6.54
20 111.4 66.25 29.06 17.28 10.27 8.69 7.00 6.52
21 110.5 65.71 28.82 17.14 10.19 8.62 6.95 6.47
22 109.9 65.36 28.67 17.05 10.14 8.57 6.91 6.43
23 108.4 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
24 108.4 64.46 28.27 16.81 10.00 8.46 6.82 6.35
25 105.4 62.67 27.49 16.35 9.72 8.22 6.63 6.17
26 97.8 58.19 25.53 15.18 9.03 7.63 6.15 5.73
27 90.3 53.72 23.56 14.01 8.33 7.05 5.68 5.29
28 87.3 51.93 22.78 13.54 8.05 6.81 5.49 5.11
29 83.1 49.42 21.68 12.89 7.66 6.48 5.23 4.86
30 81.3 48.35 21.21 12.61 7.50 6.34 5.11 4.76
ANÁLISIS PARA CADA DURACIÓN

1.1. T = 5 min  x − 
−
 

−e   
F(x) = e
Estimación de los parametros:

Numero de datos: Donde:


N= 30 X= 127.24 DATO
S= 30.07 DATO
α= 23.45171
C= 0.57721 Constante de Euler DATO
u= 113.6989

m I (5 min) P(X>X) Weibull 1- P(X>X) F(X < X) |P(X<x) - F(X < X)|
1 197.79 0.032 0.97 0.9727 0.005
2 196.89 0.065 0.94 0.9716 0.036
3 170.09 0.097 0.90 0.9137 0.010
4 167.69 0.129 0.87 0.9048 0.034
5 153.54 0.161 0.84 0.8328 0.006
6 149.02 0.194 0.81 0.8011 0.005
7 148.42 0.226 0.77 0.7965 0.022
8 146.31 0.258 0.74 0.7796 0.038
9 141.49 0.290 0.71 0.7366 0.027
10 137.88 0.323 0.68 0.7001 0.023
11 135.47 0.355 0.65 0.6736 0.028
12 135.17 0.387 0.61 0.6701 0.057
13 132.16 0.419 0.58 0.6344 0.054
14 123.43 0.452 0.55 0.5167 0.032
15 123.13 0.484 0.52 0.5123 0.004
16 120.42 0.516 0.48 0.4720 0.012
17 117.41 0.548 0.45 0.4259 0.026
18 115.30 0.581 0.42 0.3930 0.026
19 111.69 0.613 0.39 0.3364 0.051
20 111.39 0.645 0.35 0.3317 0.023
21 110.49 0.677 0.32 0.3176 0.005
22 109.88 0.710 0.29 0.3083 0.018
23 108.38 0.742 0.26 0.2852 0.027
24 108.38 0.774 0.23 0.2852 0.059
25 105.37 0.806 0.19 0.2401 0.047
26 97.84 0.839 0.16 0.1400 0.021
27 90.32 0.871 0.13 0.0665 0.063
28 87.31 0.903 0.10 0.0459 0.051
29 83.09 0.935 0.06 0.0250 0.040
30 81.28 0.968 0.03 0.0186 0.014
HISTOGRAMA (t = 5 min)
1.20

1.00
Probabilidad

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00
Intensidades(mm/hr)
Modelo Teórico Modelo Empírico (Weibull)

5 10 30 60 120 150 200 220


Duración de Intensidad

Weibull (Dc máx) 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063
0.063
N= 30 1.36
∆0 =
𝑁

∆o = 0.248 por lo tanto: SI se ajusta al modelo Gumbel

Realizando una comparacion de los datos del cuadro (∆cmax) con ∆o, tenemos:
Como Dcmáx < Do , entonces los datos se ajustan al modelo de Gumbel.

Parámetro 5min 10min 30min 60min 120min 150min 200min 220min


Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max. Max.
Promedio 127.24 75.67 33.19 19.74 11.74 9.93 8.00 7.45
Desv.est. 30.07 17.88 7.84 4.66 2.77 2.35 1.89 1.76
α 23.45 13.95 6.12 3.64 2.16 1.83 1.47 1.37
u 113.70 67.62 29.66 17.64 10.49 8.87 7.15 6.66
CALCULO PARA DE LAS INTENSIDADES PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO DE T AÑOS

Como la informacion analizada se ajusta al Modelo Gumbel, vamos a usar las siguiente expresion para hallar
las intensidades que necesitamos:

 x − 
−
 

−e   
F(x) = e

Despejando x:

   1 
x = u −   Ln  − Ln  1 −   
   T 
Donde:
T = Tiempo de retorno
µ, α = Parametros de la Distr. Gumbel

TR (Años) 15 20 25 50 75 100
TIEMPO INTENSIDADES
(min) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h) (mm/h)
5 176.4 183.4 188.7 205.2 214.8 221.6
10 104.9 109.1 112.2 122.0 127.8 131.8
30 46.0 47.8 49.2 53.5 56.0 57.8
60 27.4 28.4 29.3 31.8 33.3 34.4
120 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.9 19.8 20.4
150 13.8 14.3 14.7 16.0 16.8 17.3
200 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.9 13.5 13.9
220 10.3 10.7 11.0 12.0 12.6 13.0

Elección de periodo de retorno por riesgo de falla

T n R
50 25 0.397 Riesgo de falla aceptable

n - vida util de la estructura


200
INTENSIDAD - DURACIÓN-FRECUENCIA:
50 AÑOS DE PERIODO DE RETORNO
(I-D-F)

150
Intensidades (mm/h)

y = 686.19x-0.75 Series3

R² = 1 Potencial (Series3)
100

50

0
0 50 100 150 200
Tiempo (min)