Hubbert curve

The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time.It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve,[1]
often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King
Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil
Company.[1] It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural
resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his
calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil
[1]
production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.

Contents
Shape
Application
Peak oil
Other resources
Critique
See also
References
External links

Shape
The prototypical Hubbert curve is a probability density function of a logistic
distribution curve. It is not a gaussian function (which is used to plot normal
distributions), but the two have a similar appearance. The density of a Hubbert curve
approaches zero more slowly than a gaussian function:

The graph of a Hubbert curve consists of three key elements:

1. a gradual rise from zero resource production that then increases quickly Plot of the Hubbert curve
2. a "Hubbert peak", representing the maximum production level
3. a drop from the peak that then follows a steep production decline.
The actual shape of a graph of real world production trends is determined by various factors, such as development of enhanced
production techniques, availability of competing resources, and government regulations on production or consumption. Because of
such factors, real world Hubbert curves are often not symmetrical.

Application

Peak oil
Using the curve, Hubbert modeled the rate of petroleum production for several regions, determined by the rate of new oil well
discovery, and extrapolated a world production curve.[1] The relative steepness of decline in this projection is the main concern in
peak oil discussions. This is because a steep drop in the production implies that global oil production will decline so rapidly that the
world will not have enough time to develop sources of energy to replace the energy now used from oil, possibly leading to drastic
social and economic impacts.

Other resources
Hubbert models have been used to predict the production trends of various resources, such as natural gas (Hubbert's attempt in the
late 1970s resulted in an inaccurate prediction that natural gas production would fall dramatically in the 1980s), Coal, fissionable
materials, Helium, transition metals (such as copper), and water. At least one researcher has attempted to create a Hubbert curve for
the whaling industry and caviar,[2] while another applied it tocod.[3]

Critique
The monthly U.S. oil production reached 10.07 million b/d in November 2017, the highest monthly level of crude oil production in
U.S. history and decades after the 1970 peak Hubbert predicted. The hubbert curve has to be calculated separately for different oil
provinces, whose exploration has started at a different time, and oil extracted by new techniques, sometimes called unconventional
oil, resulting in individual Hubbert cycles.[4]

See also
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas(ASPO)
Bioeconomics (biophysical)
Energy Accounting
Gaussian function a "bell curve" shape
Thermoeconomics

References
1. M. King Hubbert. "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels"(https://web.archive.org/web/20080527233843/http://www .h
ubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf)(PDF). Drilling and Production Practice (1956) American Petroleum Institute
& Shell Development Co. Publication No. 95, See pp 9-11, 21-22 . Archived from the original (http://www.hubbertpea
k.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf)(PDF) on 2008-05-27.
2. Ugo Bardi and Leigh Yaxley. How General is the Hubbert Curve?(http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_c
ontent&task=view&id=34&Itemid=39)Proceedings of the 4thASPO Workshop, Lisbon 2005
3. Jean Laherrere. Multi-Hubbert Modeling(http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/multihub.htm). July, 1997.
4. Patzek, Tad (2008-05-17). "Exponential growth, energetic Hubbert cycles, and the advancement of technology"
(http
s://www.researchgate.net/publication/228663031_Exponential_growth_energetic_Hubbert_cycles_and_the_advance
ment_of_technology). Archives of Mining Sciences. 53 (2): 131–159. Retrieved 2018-11-17.

External links
The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths And Weaknesses article by Jean Laherrère.
Hubbert Math further mathematical manipulations by a Stanford professor
M. King Hubbert Bibliography

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