Rainfall Variability: A Tool for Crop

Planning of Udaipur Region of India

D. K. Jajoria, S. K. Sharma, G. P. Narolia

& M. L. Dotaniya

National Academy Science Letters

ISSN 0250-541X

Natl. Acad. Sci. Lett.

DOI 10.1007/s40009-014-0305-9

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 Author's personal copy
Natl. Acad. Sci. Lett.
DOI 10.1007/s40009-014-0305-9
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Rainfall Variability: A Tool for Crop Planning of Udaipur Region
of India
D. K. Jajoria • S. K. Sharma • G. P. Narolia •
M. L. Dotaniya
Received: 27 November 2013 / Revised: 15 April 2014 / Accepted: 16 April 2014
Ó The National Academy of Sciences, India 2014
Abstract Among the climatic elements, rainfall is the
first index, which determines the cropping pattern of an
area and the type of crop to be cultivated. Therefore, the
present study deals the rainfall characteristics of the
Udaipur District of Rajasthan, India. The daily rainfall data
for last 39 years (1973–2011) were analyzed to study its
variability and probability. The mean annual rainfall of the
area was 630.20 mm and it was highest (1,145 mm) in the
year 1973 followed by 978 mm in 1983. The contribution
from winter, summer/pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-
monsoon periods was 1.08, 3.17, 89.89 and 5.86 %,
respectively. Rains during June, July, August and Sep-
tember are more helpful to indicate the suitability crop
growing period for profitable crop production. Each stan-
dard meteorology week from 26th to 38th receive a rainfall
of above 20 mm, indicating the crop growing period from
June 4th week to September 3rd week. The study indicated
that the mean annual rainfall was found 630.20 mm and
monthly mean rainfall was observed to be 14.20, 74.29,
178.52, 212.59, 100.98, 20.51 mm for May, June, July,
August, September and October, respectively.
Keywords Crop planning  Probability pattern 
Rainfall variability
D. K. Jajoria (&)  S. K. Sharma  G. P. Narolia
Directorate of Research, Maharana Pratap University of
Agriculture and Technology, Udaipur 313 001, India
e-mail: jajoriadinesh@gmail.com
M. L. Dotaniya
Indian Institute of Soil Science, Nabibagh, Berasia Road,
Bhopal 462 038, India
A detailed knowledge of the rainfall regime of a particular
region is an important prerequisite for agricultural planning
and management. More on rain-fed agriculture, it is the
single most important agro-meteorological variable influ-
encing crop production and its productivity [1]. Amount
distribution and intensity of rainfall mainly determine the
choice of any particular crop and agronomic practices [2].
India is a tropical country and its agricultural planning and
utilization of water depends on monsoon rainfall [3]. More
than 75 % of rainfall accruing during the monsoon season
with uneven both in time and space, so it is an important
factor to evolve the scientific rainfall analysis. Scientific
studies on rainfall pattern and variability would enable the
farming community to adjust or modify the cropping pro-
gram as well as the cultural operations for the profitable
crop production. At Ludhiana (India) the rainfall analysis
for the past 95 years reported by Hundal and Kaur [4]
showed an increasing trend over normal for both annual as
well as summer season rainfall in last 30 years. Bhargava
et al. [5] was analysed rainfall variation at Roorkee region
of Uttarakhand and suggested appropriate crop for a par-
ticular region in a specific duration. They reported that July
month is regarded suitable for transplanting of rice crop in
Roorkee region. The rainfall based information generated
by this study is expected to be of considerable agronomic
importance for the efficient planning and management of
cropping systems. Hence the study was undertaken in
Udaipur, Rajasthan to understand the rainfall variability for
crop planning purpose.
Udaipur, is located in the southern region of Rajasthan
and is close to Gujarat. It lies in the northern plains of
India, which witness extremes of temperature. It can drop
to a minimum of 17.2 °C in the winters while it goes up to
31.8 °C in summers. The daily rainfall data for 39 years
(1973–2011) from Agromet observatory located in
123
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D. K. Jajoria et al.

100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
-20.00
-40.00
-60.00
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fig. 1 Annual rainfall deviation from normal at Udaipur

Fig. 2 Annual rainy days 60

(C2.5 mm/day) at Udaipur y = -0.17x + 372.49
50 R² = 0.0565
40
Rainy Days

30

20

10

Years

Table 1 Monthly rainfall analysis (1973–2011) at Udaipur

Month Average SD CV (%) Mean/2 Mean 9 2 No. of No. of No. of Dry Normal Above normal
rainfall (mm) (mm) (mm) dry rainfall normal above normal month (%) rainfall rainfall month
(mm) month rainfall rainfall years month (%) (%)
years

January 003.37 7.99 231.22 1.7 6.7 32 2 5 82 5 13

February 003.42 7.73 238.25 1.7 6.8 27 7 5 69 18 13
March 000.83 2.06 249.19 0.4 1.7 29 3 7 74 8 18
April 004.97 16.05 322.72 2.5 9.9 29 6 4 74 15 10
May 014.20 21.68 152.68 7.1 28.4 23 7 9 59 18 23
June 074.29 55.50 74.71 37.1 148.6 10 25 4 26 64 10
July 178.52 72.71 40.73 89.3 357.0 1 37 1 3 95 3
August 212.59 118.91 55.93 106.3 425.2 6 31 2 15 79 5
September 100.98 129.53 128.26 50.5 202.0 14 19 6 36 49 15
October 020.51 33.22 161.97 10.3 41.0 24 8 7 62 21 18
November 013.91 35.76 257.11 7.0 27.8 31 2 6 79 5 15
December 002.51 9.31 371.15 1.3 5.0 33 4 2 85 10 5

Rajasthan College of Agriculture, Udaipur, India located at
27.70°N latitude and 75.55°E longitude and 582 mean sea
level were collected and used for analysis of probability
and variability. Data was analyzed for average, coefficient
of variation and standard deviation as per methods
described in Snedecor and Cochran [6]. The number of
drought, normal and excessive rainfall or flood months and
weeks in a year were listed in descending order of
magnitude and probability analysis were carried out by
using Weibell’s formula [7].
P ¼ m = ð n þ 1Þ
Where P is plotting positions per cent, m is the rank of
magnitude and n is the total no. of years for which analysis
was carried out. Rainfall probability analysis was based on
first order Markov Chain as done by Singh [8].

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Rainfall Variability
The daily rainfall data for the period from 1973–2011
was analyzed and the results are presented in Fig. 1. The
data revealed that the highest rainfall 1145.3 mm was
received in year 1973 whereas lowest rainfall was received
in 1995 which was only 329.1 mm. The mean annual
rainfall was 630.20 mm with coefficient of variation of
30.35 % and standard deviation is 191.25 mm. The number
of annual rainy days during 1973–2011 is showed in Fig. 2.
The trend analysis of rainy days in Udaipur shows negative
trend. The highest 57 rainy days were observed in the year
1973 in comparison of mean annual rainy days which is
only 34 days. The annual rainfall amount of 383.1 mm
would be expected with 90 % probability while 499.4,
601.0, 696.2 and 769.4 mm would be expected with 75, 50,
30 and 25 % probability, respectively. The frequency of
normal, excess and deficient months and percentage of
normal, excess and deficient months are presented in
Table 1. August is the wettest month, which receives
212.59 mm of rainfall with the variability of 55.9 per cent.
The wettest month next to August is July with average
rainfall 178.59 mm and it has the lowest coefficient of
variation i.e. 40.73 %. March is the driest month with
major amounts of average rainfall (0.83 mm). The study
revealed that during the period of 39 years in the southwest
monsoon in Udaipur region starts from the last month of
June and continues up to September. During the study
period of 39 years deficient, normal and excessive rainfall
months were 259 (55.34 %), 151 (32.26 %) and 58
(12.39 %), respectively. This type of long term study on
rainfall pattern of a particular area in relation to crop
productivity, enhanced the potential of a region for crop
planning [9]. The sowing of the summer crops is therefore
undertaken during this period. Mean rainfall of different
weeks, its extremes and coefficient of variation have been
also worked out. It was observed that the quantum of
rainfall received during 25th–39th week would normally be
sufficient to sustain any summer crop within that period.
Initial and conditional probability of receiving [20 mm
rainfall per week was estimated using a Markov Chain
probability model. It enhanced the crop productivity and
fertility of soil, in maize yield was increased two fold
compared to other crops [10]. Many crop growth models
used this meteorological data for crop planning and pre-
diction of carbon sequestration [11] and enhanced the
nutrient uptake [12].
The probability rainfall pattern could be utilized for
growing rainy season crops like maize cowpea, groundnut,
black gram etc. in the second fortnight of June with the
commencement of southwest monsoon in this region [13].
To utilize monsoon rain most effectively, maize can be
substituted with other low water requiring high value crops
through sole or intercropping, provided, proper weed
management is followed [14].
On the basis of above results the maize cultivar Pratap
Makka-5 and sorghum CSV-15 were sown at the end of
June to first week of July. Rainfall received during this
period was sufficient for land preparation and sowing of
maize and sorghum crop.
While the sowing of maize cultivars PEHM-2, Pratap
Makka-3 of 85–90 days and CSV-17 of sorghum was
done on 28th and 29th meteorological week (second to
third week of July). Gap filling of maize completed at
the fourth week of July and sowing of pulses like black
gram and green gram completed by 30th meteorological
week.
Sowing of horesegram completed up to the last week of
July. So it can utilize proper moisture for germination.
Mustard or taramira (Eruca sativa) was taken immedi-
ately after the harvest of groundnut or maize during the
second fortnight of October.
The onset of south west monsoon is started in the 26th
meteorological week and the wettest week was 34th
meteorological week in Udaipur, India. The July month is
regarded suitable for sowing of all summer crops like
maize and sorghum crops in the Udaipur region. Each
standard week from 26th to 38th receives rainfall of more
than 20 mm indicating favourable crop growing period
from June last week to mid of September. The 50 %
probability of rainfall occurs up to last week of September
and according to normal rainfall the moisture was available
option first week of October which was very important to
crop planning of groundnut and maize in winter season.
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