The Pennsylvania State University

BREXIT
EXPLORING BRITAIN’S DESIRED EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION

Yahya Barry | RCL 138

Image: Andy Rain/European Pressphoto Agency

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I. Introduction II. The deal

On June 23rd 2016 a referendum was cast to
decide the future of the United Kingdom.
The decision, was whether or not to leave the
European Union. The four nations comprising
of the UK: Scotland, England, Wales, and
Northern Ireland all had different results.
Nations that saw majority in favor of leaving
were England and Wales. Whereas Scotland
and Northern Ireland preferred to stay.
With a turnout of 72.2% about 30 million people However, hard brexit is an outcome
voted leave 51.9% to 48.1%. ¹ The outcome
promptly lead to the invocation of Article 50.
Article 50, is a clause in the EU’s Lisbon treaty
that begins the exit procedures for withdrawal
from the EU. British Prime Minister Theresa May
became the first leader to invoke the article on
March 29th 2017. Therefore the plan was to
secede from the EU on March 29th 2019. However
the withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU,
has been rejected by members of the UK parliament.
The importance of the deal has become
paramount for “brexit” to occur.
Members of parliament have rejected
the deal three times. It is in the best
interest of the UK to strike a deal.
Currently, the two scenarios arising
from the deal are referred to hard and
soft brexit. Essentially, soft brexit is
categorized as a successful agreement.
where there is no deal.
A. Hard Brexit
A no deal brexit would lead to the
deterioration in long term political
relations, and make trade
arrangements less likely. ²
A primary concern of a no deal is
budgetary.

A new date, October 31 2019 is a six month extension

the EU has granted the UK. The delay surrounding the
exit has left the UK in a state of confusion. The problem
at hand, is whether or not to accept a deal.

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.
The UK is one of 10 member states who pay
more into the EU budget than they get out.
Only France and Germany contribute more. ³
If the UK leaves without a deal the EU would
be affected significantly. The April 2019-
December 2020 gap in EU budget is
estimated to be €16.5 billion in total. ⁴
Additionally, a no deal result would
have major trading implications. Importing
goods from the EU will get more expensive
when free movement of goods ends with the
UK’s exit. As a member of the EU, UK firms
don't have to pay extra duties, taxes or have
customs checks on goods travelling to or
from the EU. ⁵
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The change of the system could warrant
new tariffs with trading partners. Earlier
in March, the government announced a
their plans for tariffs in the event of a no
deal. Remarkably, it was announced that
most imports would not attract a tariff.
About 30% of the food supply in the UK
comes from the EU, and it is likely fresh
vegetables and fruits will become more
costly without a deal. ⁶ In the most
extreme case food prices could increase
by 10%. ⁷
EU citizens living in the UK will also
have to apply for a “settled status”.
This protects EU citizens regardless of
the event of a deal or no deal.
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B. Soft Brexit
Currently, the UK is leaning towards
an outcome where a deal is reached.
The goal is that the EU allows them to
enter a transition period after the exit.
This transition period would leave trading
arrangements broadly unchanged. The UK would
also leave the EU Single Market and customs
union and move to a free‐trade agreement,
with the EU gaining a relatively large degree
of sovereignty about country‐specific regulation. ⁸
As part of the agreement, the UK would also have
to pay £39 billion as a financial settlement.
However, that is not the major reason leading
to the deal’s rejection in parliament.
When the UK departs from the EU the
border between Ireland and North Ireland
will become the land border between the EU
and the UK. The border is the reason the UK
and the EU have placed a “backstop” on the border.
The backstop guarantees there is no “hard border”.
This backstop has been the major turning point
in negotiations. Members of parliament believe
this border will tie the UK and EU forever.
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Since Ireland is still a EU nation, the
backstop certainly complicates things.
The UK government estimates there
are 110 million border crossings
annually. ⁹ In 2016 €4 billion in
exports went from Northern Ireland
to Ireland. ¹⁰ Additionally, at least
30,000 people commute across the
border every day. ¹¹
After the transition period the effects
of the backstop will be seen. The
backstop would require a single
customs territory between the EU
and the UK. The single customs
territory would essentially keep
the UK in the EU customs union.
The custom union ensures EU
member states all charge the same
import duties to countries outside
of the EU. ¹²
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III. Rising anti-brexit support

The complexities that have surrounded I believe that the government is making
Britain’s historic exit have raised recent the right decision. In a recent study
support to just stay in the EU. A petition conducted by YouGov, it was found
calling for Prime Minister Theresa May to that most UK voters actually haven’t

revoke Article 50 and remain in the European changed their minds since 2016.

Union surpassed 5.7 million signatures setting

a new record for petitions hosted on the British

Parliament website. ¹³ More support of the

anti-brexit movement came on March 23rd

2019 when a million British citizens stormed

central London to protest. The rally, also became

one of the largest protests in Britain with

activists calling for a second referendum.

Stopping Brexit is definitely still a possible

outcome. Stopping Brexit would require a
a change in the law in the UK, something

neither the government nor the main UK IV. Recommendations

opposition parties want to do at this point. ¹⁴ With all things considered, I think
The European Court of Justice ruled on the UK should still leave the EU.
December 10th 2018 that the UK could cancel Whilst taking the less favored
the Article 50 Brexit process without the position of leaving without a
permission of the other 27 EU members, and deal. It goes without saying,
remain a member of the EU on its existing terms no deal is better than a bad
as long as the parliament agrees to. ¹⁵ deal.

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A no deal outcome is seen as a last resort
when it really should not be. The immediate
effects of a no deal are feared to be a hit on
the UK’s GDP. Without the EU’s help that
theory is very realistic. However, the loss
of GDP could be a temporary setback at best.
The upside for complete sovereignty outweigh
potential drawbacks. Free from the EU, the UK
would be allowed to make trade deals with
other nations. That freedom would come to
a huge advantage for the fifth largest
economy in the world. ¹⁶
Tariff-free access to the lucrative British market
will be a hot commodity around the world.
Every trade deal they make will mean cheaper
exporting for businesses and cheaper products
for consumers. ¹⁷ In the long run the UK would
certainly reap the benefits of a no deal outcome.
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V. Conclusion
In 1975, the UK issued its first
referendum. Similarly, the topic
was on the issue of breaking
away from the EU. The results,
were 67% for staying, whereas
33% voted against it. 41 years
later, the same question was asked
and the results were completely
different. Although the UK has
shared a fruitful relationship with
the EU, it’s time for a divorce. The
compliance fee is a £39 billion fee
the UK can avoid by not agreeing
to a deal. An agreement, would
still tie the UK to the EU
indefinitely. However, a no deal
grants the UK full sovereignty.
Britain as a whole will become more
competitive by allowing business’s to
suit the UK and not the EU. ¹⁸ After
three years of negotiations, Britain’s
departure is still on course. As the
world and the rest of the EU watches
the UK hopes to leave the union as
soon as possible.
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Endnotes
¹ “EU Referendum Results.” BBC News, BBC,
www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results.

² Wolf B., Guntram. “The implications of a no-deal Brexit: is the European Union
prepared?” January 2019. PDF file.

³ Seddon, Paul, and Brian Wheeler. “Brexit: All You Need to Know about the UK Leaving
the EU.” BBC News, BBC, 18 Apr. 2019, www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887.

⁴ Ibid, Wolf B., Guntram.

⁵ The Visual Journalism team. “Brexit: 10 Ways You Could Be Affected by No-Deal.” BBC
News, BBC, 22 Mar. 2019, www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47470864.

⁶ Ibid.

⁷ “Brexit: Food Prices Could Rise 10%, Says Mark Carney.” BBC News, BBC, 4 Dec. 2018,
www.bbc.com/news/business-46439969.

⁸ Hantzsche, A, Kara, A, Young, G. The economic effects of the UK government's proposed

Brexit deal. World Econ. 2019; 42: 5– 20. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12770

⁹ Phillips, Tom, and Sinéad Boultwood. “Why Is Avoiding a Hard Border in Ireland a
Priority?” Full Fact, Full Fact, 17 Dec. 2018, fullfact.org/europe/avoiding-hard-border-
ireland/.

¹⁰ Reland, Joël. “Trade across the Irish Border.” Full Fact, Full Fact, 26 Feb. 2018,
fullfact.org/europe/irish-border-trade/.

¹¹ Ibid, Phillips, Tom, and Sinéad Boultwood.

¹² Ibid, Seddon, Paul, and Brian Wheeler.

¹³ Hassan, Jennifer. “'Cancel Brexit' Petition Surpasses 5.7 Million Signatures, as

Parliament Agrees to Debate It.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 26 Mar. 2019,
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/03/21/can-brexit-be-stopped-people-are-trying-so-
hard-that-parliaments-website-is-broken/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.44bc1f48effe.

¹⁴ Ibid, Seddon, Paul, and Brian Wheeler.

¹⁵ Ibid.

¹⁶ Smith, Rob. “The World's Biggest Economies in 2018.” World Economic Forum, 18 Apr.
2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-2018/.

¹⁷ Northcott, Michael. “The Case for No-Deal Brexit.” POLITICO, POLITICO, 12 Mar. 2019,
www.politico.eu/article/the-case-for-no-deal-brexit/.

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¹⁸ Ibid.

Graphics

¹ Reuben, Anthony. “Reality Check: How Much Does the EU Budget Cost the UK?”
BBC News, BBC, 5 Apr. 2016, www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-
35943216.

2 Edgington, Tom. “Brexit: What Trade Deals Has the UK Done so Far?” BBC
News, BBC, 5 Apr. 2019, www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842.

³ “Brexit: Food Prices and Availability.” House of Lords - Brexit: Food Prices and
Availability - European Union Committee,
publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/129/12904.htm.

⁴ Reland, Joël. “Trade across the Irish Border.” Full Fact, Full Fact, 26 Feb. 2018,
fullfact.org/europe/irish-border-trade/.

⁵ McGuinness, Ross. “Most UK Voters Haven't Changed Their Minds about Brexit,
Says YouGov Poll.” Yahoo! News, Yahoo!, 16 Apr. 2019, uk.news.yahoo.com/most-
uk-voters-havent-changed-their-minds-about-brexit-says-you-gov-poll-
111651367.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referr
er_sig=AQAAAKzsla5kAjD99mDy4nN7JPyMX5BR56mVRgUg-
ZMq_DHK070dGZwT8kOcpynELxzU-
Tt8qtXEiEryIbaS9ZPpGqwDM8o1N7EAIRxgbbMsOdliXEB_5XdpbAeuPxbZgJHbqs
QtoNdrMD3anxOnNsqDv5bN8E6aB0LFMsEayrWVX0Ld&guccounter=2.

⁶ Smith, Rob. “The World's Biggest Economies in 2018.” World Economic Forum, 18
Apr. 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/the-worlds-biggest-economies-in-
2018/.

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