SHAPING THE POLITICAL ARENA CRITICAL JUNCTURES, THE LABOR MOVEMENT, AND REGIME DYNAMICS, IN LATIN AMERICA Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier 1991 1 Framework: Critical Junctures and Historical Legacies “Two sas diverged ina wd, and Tonk the one less velo by. ‘sod that ha made al the dllerence ober Frost, “The Road Not Taken’ ‘Tue 1oEn of crucial choices and their legacies, of which Robert Frost wrote has long intrigued students f political change: Numerous scholars have fo Clved on major watersheds in political he, arguing that these transitions e tablish cereain iections of change and foreclose thers in a way that shapes polities for years to come, Such transitions can, fllowing Seymour Martin pet and Stein Rokk, be called “eteal junctures” "Pe character af eiticalynerures and the perspective fom which they ae analyzed vary gresty. Some ential junctures, a¥ in the choice of Robert Frost's wanders, nay entail considerable discon, whereas with others the presumed choice appear deeply embedded sn antecedent conditions. The Envieal ncture may involve a elatvely Bl period in which one direction ‘or another is taken or an extended perod of reorientation. Some analyses Stress undclying societal cleavages of crises that lead up tothe ei une {res wheteas others focus primarily on the cntical juncture sell inal, Some ctica unetares may be seen a coming close to making all the di ietence” at Tost boldly asserts in his poem. More commoaly, te effect of the ericallneture i snerewined with other processes of change. ‘Ye undealying this diversity is 2 common understanding of change that i «a commersione of comparative historical research on evelopment. suggests Wena Paul A. Davi (1985-332) has called» "path dependent” patter of ‘hange, in that outcomes during » crucial tansiion establish distinct ta ieetris within which, a he has engagingly pus, "ene damn thing follows nother James Cleick (19878 sm summarizing the version ofthis perspec tive known as “chaos” theory, capeures related featur of erica unetures In seressng the dea of “renstve dependence on initial conditions” "To those who sady revolutionary change, comes 250 surprise ¥ su gest dat politica fe exhibits the kn of dcontinutes posited in analyses {tested junctotes, What should be ndchined the extent to which this cus is widely employed ina diverse: spectrum of research ot concerned‘exclusively or even primarily, with eveluionay change. plays 2 ental qole in Max Weber's analysis ofthe eylisl interplay betwcen periods of con Uinuiey and sharp distnetures-—inspiod by charismatic leadership—that re Shape established social relations In major works of comparaive-historcal “analysis ofthe 1960, 18 found in Brsngton Moore's argument that within the process of modernization, diferent patterns of commercalization of ag Fcultre were a histone watershed that set counties on diferent pats 10 the modem world, in Louis Harts’s comparisons ofthe founding of “Sag tment socteties, and in Alexander Gerschenkron's work on the psea spurt” in the indstriaization process? Thi perspeeuve is ental to research on the crises, sequence, and timing af development to recent studies of cont rity and change in international and domestic plical economy, 0 older trork on “instutionalization," to more recent wotk on the “new insti Sonat,” and to research on technological change* Though the impor tance of this perspective is partculaiy evident sn studies based on cross ational comparisons st also plays a role in research on long-term patterns ‘Gf change within individual countries andi studies of electoral realignment in the United States’ In rational choice theory, a variant ofthis perspective IS found in "threrhold models of collective behavior" ‘Arguments about eritieal junctures have played an important role in re search on labor politics. In their elasieIndusiialsm ond Industrial Man, ‘Clark Kerr and his conuthors emphasize the long-term stability ofthe indus tral relations system that wae “erystalized by the Teading eite at 2 rel tively ear tage” (1960 285 In Lipsce and Rokkan’s 1967] analysis, andro fn even eater degree in the subsequent work of Carlos Waisman (1982, 19671 Gregory Luebbert (1986, 1987) snd Jah Stephens (1986), the resol tion ofthe working class cleavage has profound effect n shaping national poles, Osher studies have focused on ential junctures within the labor movement. Samuel Valenzuela (1979:esp. chap 4) shows how the filling of Torganiationel space” during erial phases of labor movement develop ooht"ieezes”orpenizational alternatives within the labor sector, and Lip 211983 1) analyzes how the "historic conditions under which the proletr ft entered the politcal arena” shaped the subsequent emergence of {elormist as opposed to revolutionary labor movements Following this edition, che present study aplies the tea of cite! june tures and ther legacies to the evolution af 20th cenery polities in Latin ‘Ameria, focusing ona period of fundamental change in the relationship be teen the stat and the labor movement, This change responded to two sets ‘cl clesagen thi between workers and owners and that herween workers ld the state expressed in the emergence of worker organization and protest Inning inthe Late 19eh century, and that between the middle sectors ad the oligarchy, expressed in the emergence of maar reform movements in the Fis decades of the 20th century. Growing oUt ofthis new worker activation fd these refoem periods, thee eventually emerged i each county the pal {ey period we sefer toa the “inital incorporation ofthe bor movement” “This book apues thatthe incorporation periods constituted a catialjUne tore that occured in distinct ways i different counties, and that these di Terence played » central sale in shaping the nations policl arena in the following decades, ‘istorcal stodies of the eight countsies analyzed inthis bok have rot sinely argued thatthe years corresponding to the incorporation periods were of get historical Importance and had major impact on the subse {quent evolution of polities" Yet this trator has lacked consistent eters fortdenulying and comparing these periods, and the specifi claims concern Ing their gates vary greatly since these studies obviously were not con ‘cted within a common analytic frsmework. To date, no analysis has sys femaically compared these incorporation periods across + numberof eases tr pleced together the complex interactions among the characterises of ‘he antecedent plittal system, the incorporation period sel, and the ley eyo incorporation “This choper establishes 2 common framework or analyzing critical jane tures The ned for such sramework derives from the suprising lek of a fenton to the problems tht arise in assessing arguments abou ential june tures and theit legacies, given how widely used this perspective i inthe development literature Ke ls easy 0 intallyhypotheste thats et of coun tes pared through a crucial period of transition and thatthe ansition oe curred in distinct ways that had a profound impact on subsequent patterns ‘change Yet many pitfall are encountered in asessing the descriptive and ‘explanatory claims contained in rach an hypothesis. This chapter provides 2 framework for dealing with these pals Building Blocks of the Critical Juncture Framework ‘critical juncture may be defined 48 4 period of significant change, which typically accu n distinct ways i different counts [or in other units of halysi” and whichis hypothesized vo produce distinc legacies ‘Suna sms ncn mason pcp“The elements in this dstinicion may be illusested with an example, In Barrington Moote's Lord and Peasant, the period of baste change ithe con rmercialzation of agriculture the contrast involve the varied fle of dilr ‘ent clas and sectoral groups in this ansition, particularly lord and pestan land the legacy consis of erent “routes to the modern worl bourgeols ‘evolution and Wertem democracy, revolution from above, and fsa and ppensant revolution and communism (19663, chaps. 7-9, erp 4-14), “Ths, the concept of a erica! junetute contains thee components the ‘lim that sgaificane change oceurred within each case, the lai that thi thange took place im distin way in diferent cases, andthe explantory hypothesis about its consequences, I the explanatory hypothess groves 0 Ie false—that i, the hypothesized eitialnetare didnot produce the eg seymthen one would assert that it was Dot, in fac, 2 eel juncture Th addition wo the three components contained in the definition, « number offrthe elements mur be considered (ce Figure 1. 1 The antecedent conditions that represent 2 "base line” against which fhe eritieal unerure and the legacy are assessed. a Figure 1, the ow From the antecedent conditions tothe legacy s ntended to sages the potential ssval hypothesis that important atributes of the legacy may i fact involve Considerable continuity andr direct causal links withthe preexisting sy ‘em that are not mediated by the etal junerre 2 The cleavage (or eis)" that emerge out ofthe antecedent conditions and in ror egaers the eticl juncture ‘3. Thiee components ofthe legocy" a. Mechanisms of production ofthe Figure 1.1 Building Blocks of he Crit anctre Framework a 2 | 7. ii L el legacy, The legacy often docs not crystallize immediatly ater the eriesl juncture but sater i shaped through a setes of intervening steps b. Mec nisms of reproduction of the lacy. The stability of the legacy 1 not an Thoma outcome, but rather i prpetustd trough ongoing msttutional nd politcal processes. che stability ofthe core atibutes ofthe legacy ‘hat ithe base attbutes produced as an outcome ofthe cea unctre, ich a he eiferent constellations of nom party epi relationships ane Iysotin the presen book. {Rival explanations involving “constant causes.” which, as we ague be low represent one of several types ofl explanation that must be consid el The eventual end of the Tegocy, which inewitebly must ocur at some pont. Issues in Analyzing Critical Junctures Within che amework ofthese clement, we will now explore basic sues thac aise inthe analyse of etc unctres and their clevance tothe pes ent study 1. Hdenuifying Hypothesized Critical functure and Variations in How tt ‘Occurs, Because itt essential tothe concent of» erties uneture tha i ‘occurs in ferent ways in dllerent cases, issues of establishing analytic huivalence, that ae standard probleme in comparative historical research, se sbundandly present inthis type of analysis, The dilferences i how st fccured have ta be large enough to produce intresting “variance,” yet this Saance most not be so eat a to undermine the idea that cally involves he seme etc neta: I the critical juncture ie an immeshate response to an external shock— such athe depression of the 1930s, the debt criss of the 1980s an interns tonal wave of sotal protest or a wari may occut mote or less simulta neously actoss» number af counts and hence may be elaively easy #0 emit. However, the poitial response evento such well-defined extemal vents may oveur quickly in some eases and be long delayed in others. Fut ther, when che erica jnetre is tggered by extemal forees that impinge ‘on detent countries at dllerent times, o by internal forces that may man est themselves a iflerent times, the eesult i again thatthe jueture oe ‘sin diferent historical context, among which I may not be easy £0 €5 tablish analytic equivalence "Yer such differences in ming ae often eracil tothe analysis, since they aeone ofthe types ol variations in enc junetutes that ae used to account for variations fn she legacy, ae in Alexander Gerschenkron’s (1962 analysis