Pakistan Country Situation Assessment PDF

Pakistan: Country situation
assessment
Working paper
Pakistan: Country situation assessment
August 2015
Kashif Majeed Salik
Sadia Ishfaq
Fahad Saeed
Elishma Noel
Qurat-ul-Ain Syed
This Country Situation Assessment has been produced as part of a series

of preliminary papers to guide the long-term research agenda of the
Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE) project. PRISE is a
five-year, multi-country research project that generates new knowledge
about how economic development in semi-arid regions can be made more
equitable and resilient to climate change.
Front cover image:

A girl drinking water from a water pump, Sindh.
© Russell Watkins/DFID
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
2 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Acknowledgements
The authors are thankful to those who have contributed to the development and finalization of this report. We
thank to Dr. Abid Suleri for providing his intelligent insights and guidance on various aspects of the report.
Special thanks are due to Samavia Batool, Zain Maken, Masooma Hasan, Daud Alam and Rabia Manzoor who
had contributed to the initial draft of the report. We are also indebted to the external and internal reviewers, and
colleagues at ODI, who helped us improve the contents of our report.
Last, but not the least, we owe our gratitude to PRISE stakeholders who have participated in the Stakeholder
Engagement Platform meetings held in Islamabad in 2014. Without their inputs, this research report would have
remained inconclusive.
Pakistan: Country situation assessment 3

Contents
List of Tables, Boxes and Figures 7

Acronyms and Abbreviations 8
Executive Summary 11
Introduction 18
1. The development context 20

1.1 Development Ambitions: Current context 21
1.2 Socio-Economic Status 25
1.3 Conclusion 35
2. Climate and Development 36

2.1 Climate change risks 36
2.2 Climate risks and Development 48
2.3 The Vision 2025 and climate risks 52
2.4 Conclusion 52
3. Implications for Adaptation Policy 55

3.1 Climate Change Policy Initiatives and Institutions 55
3.2 NCCP 2013 Planning and Implementation Efforts 59
3.3 Identifying Priority Adaptation Measures for Public and Private
Sector 61
3.4 Conclusion 62
References 65
Pakistan:Country
Pakistan: Countrysituation
situationassessment
assessment 55
List of Tables, Boxes and Figures
Table 1 Pakistan‟s GDP and per capita 21 Box 10 IISD 2013 Adaptation priorities 59
growth rate trends (%) Box 11 Financial obstacles to 61
Table 2 FEG objectives for sustainable 23 implementation
and climate resilient economic Box 12 Gaps, bottlenecks and 63
growth implications for further research
Table 3 Pakistan: 67 Years of 27
development
Figure 1 Aridity map of Pakistan based on 19
Table 4 Employment share by sector 30 PMD Station data from 1991-
Table 5 Poverty statistics of Pakistan 32 2000 (Pakistan Met Department)
Table 6 Observed temperature and 37 Figure 2 Population growth in Pakistan 27
precipitation change in South
Figure 3 World‟s largest countries by 28
Asia
2030
Table 7 Observed trends in climate 38 Figure 4 World‟s fastest growing cities 29
extreme events in Pakistan
Figure 5 GDP Growth 29
Table 8 Summary of climate change 39
projection for Pakistan by 2100 Figure 6 Percentage Share in GDP 30
Table 9 Key water related climate risks to 46 Figure 7 Projected household vulnerability 32
food systems in arid and semi- (to poverty) rates under two
arid areas of Pakistan growth scenarios
Table 10 Physical damages to power 49
Figure 8 Proportion of population using 33
sector (2010 floods)
improved drinking water
Table 11 Key climate risks to infrastructure 50
Figure 9 Public expenditure on education 34
in Pakistan
as a % of GDP
Table 12 Key government development 53
Figure 10 Surface temperature difference 40
goals and climate change
(Cº) using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
impacts
scenarios; Precipitation
difference (%) using RCP4.5 and
Box 1 Semi-arid regions in Pakistan 19 RCP8.5
Figure 11 Layout of Indus River system 41
Box 2 Pakistan‟s development history 21
network
Box 3 History of economic busts during 22
Figure 12 UBC Simulated mean monthly 43
military regimes
flows of Indus River under the
Box 4 Socio-economic trends that 26 baseline (1995-2004) conditions
make developing countries more and under the influence of a
vulnerable to impacts of climate hypothetical climate change
change scenario (CCS)
Box 5 IPCC AR5 Climate change 37 Figure 1 3 Loss of cotton production 52
projection for Pakistan following the floods in 2010
Box 6 SDPI‟s Climate change projection 40
for Pakistan
Box 7 Rainfall patterns in Pakistan 42
Box 8 Pakistan‟s agriculture at a glance 44
Box 9 Climate variability and 47
transmission of Dengue Virus in
semi-arid plains of Pakistan

Acronyms and Abbreviations
ADB Asian Development Bank

ASALs Arid and Semi-Arid Lands
BISP Benazir Income Support Programme
BNU Beijing Normal University
CCD Climate Change Division
CDKN Climate and Development Knowledge Network
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CMIC Coupled Model Inter-Comparison
CRU Climate Research Unit
CSA Country Situation Assessment
FACC Framework of Economic Growth
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation
FEG Framework of Economic Growth
GCISC Global Change Impact Studies Centre
GCM Global Climate Models
GDP Gross Development Product
GEF Global Environment Facility
GHG Green House Gas
GoP Government of Pakistan
HKH Hindu-Kush Himalayas
IBIS Indus Basin Irrigation System
ICCI Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry
IMF International Monetary Fund
ISSD International Institute for Sustainable Development
IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature
IWT Indus Water Treaty
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
KMS Knowledge Management Strategy
LDC Less Developed Countries
LEAD Leadership for Environment and Development
MAF Million Acre Feet
MDG Millennium Development Goals
MTDF Medium Term Development Framework
NAMA National Appropriate Mitigation Actions
NAP‟s National Adaptation Plans
NCCP National Climate Change Policy

NDMA National Disaster Management Authority
NFC National Finance Commission
NGO Non-Governmental Organisations
NEEDS National Economic and Environmental Development Study
NNS Pakistan National Nutrition Survey
ODI Overseas Development Institute
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PARC Pakistan Agriculture Research Council
PES Pakistan Economic Survey
PIDE Pakistan Institute of Development Studies
PMCCC Prime Minister‟s Committee on Climate Change
PMD Pakistan Meteorology Department
PRISE Pathways to Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies
PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
PSDP Public Sector Development Programme
PSLM Pakistan Social and Living standard Measuring survey
SCCF Special Climate Change Fund
SDG Sustainable Development Goals
SEPs Stakeholder Engagement Platforms
TFCC Task Force on Climate Change
UIB Upper Indus Basin
UBCWM University of British Columbia‟s Watershed Model
UN United Nations
UNDP United Nation Development Project
UNFCCC United Nations Framework on Climate Change Conventions
WB World Bank
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WRI World Resource Institute

Executive Summary
Climate change is one of the most challenging crises that Pakistan faces
today. Pakistan is a low-middle income country, where majority of the
population is dependent on climate-sensitive economic sectors (such as
agriculture and energy) for their livelihoods. One-third of 188 million people
in Pakistan are engaged in the services industry while half of it is employed
in agriculture sector (GoP, 2002). Thus, unpreparedness towards climate
change may entrench Pakistan deeper into poverty.
The development context

A country‟s capacity to respond to climate change largely depends on the
state of its development. Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has
been struggling to achieve stability and socio-economic prosperity where
overriding concerns have been poverty alleviation, economic growth, and
politico-economic stability. Pakistan‟s earlier decades of 40s and 50s
witnessed stagnant economic growth. While growth levels improved in the
60s, they dropped again in the 70s after two wars, and at the outset of
separation between the country‟s east and west wings.
Following decades of unsuccessful experimentation, a series of
macroeconomic reforms were introduced in the 2000s under the ambit of
International Monetary Fund. Three Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
(PRSPs) were produced in 2001, 2003 and 2009, all of which focused on
alleviating poverty, accelerating growth, and improving governance and
macroeconomic performance. The Musharraf government‟s Medium Term
Development Framework (MTDF) (2005-10) and Vision 2030, that focused
on establishing a sustainable economic system for poverty reduction and
economic liberalization, became redundant after 2008 general elections.
As a new government took charge under Asif Ali Zardari, it passed a
constitutional amendment to devolve several ministries to the provinces. In
2011, the Planning Commission introduced the Framework of Economic
Growth (FEG) carefully outlining a sound growth strategy, giving weightage
to environmental sustainability in achieving socio-economic equity. The
FEG was complemented by the Benazir Income Support Programme
(BISP) that provided economic cushion to the poorer households through
extensive social safety nets. The FEG was however never implemented in
its full spirit. It was replaced by the recent government‟s long-term Vision
2025 that set ambitious targets to be achieved by 2025. The national
vision will be complemented by United Nations‟ new Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) that the country will be expected to commit to
in 2015.
While most of the recent development strategies have had similar
overlapping goals, there still exist gaps in development planning.
Inconsistency in development planning is reflected not only in the
development plans of successive governments, but also in the
development commitments made by the same government in its different
tenures. More importantly, there is a glaring disconnect between
development policy and planning. No development strategy caters to the
development needs of semi-arid and arid lands, which constitute 60
percent of Pakistan. Few national plans exhaustively focus on social sector

development, despite the numerous challenges Pakistan faces on the
socio-economic front.
The UNDP‟s latest Human Development Report (2014) ranks Pakistan
146th out of 187 countries in human development, which indicates that
Pakistan has one of the lowest human development conditions globally.
Out of 8 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) the country committed to
in 2000, its progress on 6 goals is off-track (UNDP 2014b). Poverty and
inequality persist with provincial and rural-urban disparities. Pakistan‟s
poor performance in human development is particularly accentuated in
health, education and access to basic services, etc. Macroeconomic
instability has shown to be historically tied with political instability and weak
governance. Given the present development landscape of Pakistan,
existing social, economic and political vulnerabilities are likely to multiply,
and climate risks magnified, in the absence of right sets of policies that
promote climate resilient development.
Climate and development

Evidence gauged from both of the observed and projected climate data
indicates warming trends globally. These trends denote significant increase
in temperature (heat or cold waves), heavy precipitations, frequent extreme
weather events (floods and droughts), glacier melting, and sea-level rise.
Despite the importance of the issue, the country lacks a comprehensive
assessment of climate change projections at the sub-national scale. There
are, however, a couple of studies conducted over the region using different
regional and global climate models (McSweeney et al. 2012, Haensler
2013). These narratives point to the following observed and projected
climate trends over the region:
Observed trends: Different studies have indicated an increase in mean
average temperature by approximately 0.6°C in Pakistan since the
beginning of the 20th century (McSweeney et al. 2012, Haensler 2013).
Significant (above average) annual mean temperature increase has been
observed in the south-western province of Balochistan, which is mostly
arid to hyper arid. In another study, Pakistan Meteorology Department has
reported an increase in number of heat-wave days all over Pakistan on
annual basis at the rate of 11 days per decade. Precipitation is observed to
have increased intensely in northern areas of Pakistan by 15 to 25 percent
mainly during the monsoon season. The frequency of extreme weather
events (including extreme precipitation) has shown an increasing trend in
northern areas, and semi-arid to arid regions of the country.
Projected trends: The mean temperature is likely to increase by 3.8°C in
Pakistan by 2100, along with increase in precipitation, heat waves, dry
spell and heavy rainfall events [although with different confidence levels]
(Haensler 2013). Using in-house expertise at SDPI, we developed climate
scenarios for Pakistan using latest GCMs data from Coupled Model Inter-
comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used in AR5. In the case of RCP4.5, the
increase of temperature remains less than 3.5 degrees with the maximum
increase observed over the mountains in the northern areas of the country.
For the case of RCP8.5, the increase in temperature becomes as high as 5
degree, again with the highest increase over the mountains in the northern
region. Same analysis shows an increase in precipitation over southern
Afghanistan and adjoining areas of Pakistan. However, it should be noted
that this area receives very little precipitation throughout the year and a
small change would appear as a big percentage difference. However,
RCP8.5 shows a clear decrease in precipitation over the monsoon belt.
Moreover, this decrease is evident the most over the arid and semi-arid
regions of the country.
Climate risks in key sectors: impacts and

challenges
Wa t e r r e s o u r c e s a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e r i s k s
in P a k is t a n
The main source of Indus flows inPakistan is snow and glacier melt from
Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region that contributes up-to 80 percent of
the annual flows (Ali et al. 2009). Scientific evidence showed that these
glaciers are becoming increasingly unpredictable and receding like other
glaciers in the world due to climate change (Singh 2011; IPCC 2007a;
Briscoe & Qamar 2005; Naithani et al. 2001). However, the rate of
recession has varied for different parts in HKH region (Rees et al. 2004).
Similarly, studies also project a decline in annual river flows with
considerable alteration of the intra-annual pattern of flows (Saeed et al.
2009). These findings point towards a shift in water availability, which in
turn will also affect the agriculture sector. Thus, major challenge in the
region is to deal with the uncertainty in flows (high water availability) with
adequate storage facilities and efficient management.
Ag r i c u l t u r e a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e i n P a k i s t a n
Pakistan‟s agriculture is facing multiple climatic challenges. Wheat, grown
all over the country, is a staple food for most Pakistanis. It is projected that
wheat production would decline with increase in temperature under
different CO2 levels by 5-20 percent and 6-25 percent in arid and semi-arid
areas, respectively (Sultana et. al 2009). However, the impact of climate
change on wheat may vary regionally as 1.5 °C increase in temperature
could improve yield up to 14 percent in Chitral- a mountainous wet semi-
arid region in Pakistan (Hussain and Mudasser 2007).
Rice is the second important food crop in Pakistan and a third largest
export item accounting for 7.7 percent of total export (GoP 2014). Like
wheat crop, different studies also project a reduction in rice yield by 2100
in semi-arid areas to 18 percent and 15 percent under A2 and B2 IPCC
scenarios (Iqbal et al. 2009a; Ahmad et al. 2013a,b). This climate induced
reduction in yield would also affect cotton and sugarcane production in
arid and semi-arid regions, under changing temperature and rainfall
patterns (Siddiqui et al. 2010). Crop water requirement are projected to
increase with increase in temperature. The observed trends in temperature,
rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, humidity, etc., during 1951-2000,
show that there is a 5 percent increase in net irrigation water requirement
under current rainfall patterns (Farooqi et al. 2005). Climate change could
increase the rate of land degradation, thereby further hampering soil and
agricultural productivity which is currently threatening semi-arid and arid
agro-ecology (Alam et al. 2007; Ahmad 2013). Climate change variables
are significant determinants of productivity, while their effect is not uniform
across all categories of farms because different farm configurations
confront different climatic and socio-economic environments. It was clearly
noted that district specific characteristics do have significance in
generating Net Farm Revenue (NFR) (Saboor 2014).

He a l t h a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e r e l a t e d r i s k s i n
Pakistan
The transmission of vector-borne diseases like malaria, dengue, etc. have
a very strong association with increased temperature, humidity and vapour
pressure. Projected increase in heat or cold waves, spatial and temporal
variations in monsoon occurrence and increasing humidity levels due to
climate change are most likely to increase human health risks in Pakistan
(Malik et al. 2012). Extreme weather events have shown to damage health
infrastructure and services in Pakistan. Floods in Sindh and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa partially or completely destroyed almost 515 health units,
representing 5 percent of total facilities in flood-affected districts, mostly in
rural areas (ADB 2010 & WB 2010), with an estimated damage cost of
around $50 million (NDMA 2010). Further, flood affected areas faced a
severe shortage of doctors, para-medical staff and lady health workers
and increased diarrheal disease, infant mortality rate, and maternal health
(Malik et al. 2012).
Climate risks and Development: PRISE research focuses on five key areas
of economic growth: (1) climate risk management, (2) governance,
institutions and finance, (3) markets and supply chains, (4) natural capital
and (5) human capital. Climate risks to each of these critical factors are
reviewed below:
Human Capital: Improvements in status and quality of Pakistan‟s
education standards and health system are the key to enhance climate
resilience. Floods have negative impact on education mainly in two ways:
exposure of children to disaster-related health risks and damage to
educational infrastructure. During 2010 mega flood in Pakistan, 10,407
schools were destroyed (ADB 2010 & WB 2010), thus affecting school
drop-outs (Murtaza 2012). The increase in frequency and intensity of
climate extremes may place additional population at risk due to low level of
healthcare facilities in Pakistan.
Natural Capital: Climate change is likely to stress human-nature relations
particularly in semi-arid areas (Bizikova et al. 2014). Water and land are the
two important natural assets that are closely linked with Pakistan‟s
economic development. Pakistan‟s limited water resources are under
stress due to many factors, including inefficient irrigation practices, rapidly
growing cities and industries (WB 2005a) and expanding water usage for
drinking, sanitation and health. Similarly, a substantial proportion (38
percent) of the cultivated land of the country is suffering from various forms
of degradation.
Physical capital and infrastructure: Climate resilient infrastructure is
essential for adapting to climate change. Pakistan‟s existing physical
infrastructure is in poor state when compared to international standards.
For example, roads are sensitive to extreme heat and heavy rainfall. Above
certain temperature thresholds, paved roads are corroded, thereby
causing rapid degradation even under normal traffic loads. Recent floods
of 2010, 2011, and 2014 damaged the roads, bridges and rail tracks
extensively in KP, Punjab and Sindh.
Governance, institutions and access to finance: Adaptation to climate
change provides opportunity for social reforms as well as improved
governance (Pelling 2011). After 18th amendment in the Constitution of
Pakistan in 2010, the decentralization process has devolved 17 federal
level ministries to the provinces. How would provinces exercise this power
and which option they prefer at this time remains highly ambiguous and
complex. Global climate finance, for example, emerges as a major
incentive to take on adaptation efforts at the local and national levels.
Unfortunately, it falls short of global community‟s expectations due to
limited funding, bureaucratic structure and inherited weak institutional
capacities in developing countries (Bird and Glennie 2011).
Effective markets: Markets in developing countries are sensitive to climate
change due to their dependence on primary production and ecosystem
services. For example, any decline in cotton production due to climate
change would negatively impact textile industry, affect 49 million textile-
related labour force, reduce exports, and may reduce textile sector growth
and investment rate (Banuri 1998). During 2010 floods, almost 75 percent
of the financial losses were incurred due to destruction of cotton crop;
studies show that nearly 20 percent of the crop land was completely
washed away with the flood water (Thorpe and Fennell 2012). Despite the
increased impact of climate change on private sector, there remain
enormous challenges obstructing active role in autonomous as well as
planned adaptation options. The role of private sector has not been
explicitly taken up by the research, policy and decision making
communities in Pakistan.
Implications for adaptation policy

Adaptation is collectively concerned with responses to both the adverse
and positive effects of climate change. It requires adjustments that may be
„passive, reactive or anticipatory‟ but can respond to and anticipate the
consequences associated with climate change. Pakistan being one of the
most climate vulnerable countries in the world requires the promotion and
facilitation of better adaptation to climate change (CDKN, 2013). A number
of efforts have been made to incorporate adaptive strategies starting in the
early 2000s, with the late realization of the adverse effects of climate
change.
Op p o r t u n i t i e s f o r r e se ar ch on c lim a t e
r esi l i ent d ev el o p m ent i n P R I S E
For Pakistan, PRISE research is especially significant as the country‟s
semi-arid topography makes it especially prone to climate change risks.
Based on our review and stakeholder feedback during PRISE
consultations, the following list of priority adaptation actions are proposed
for further research:
Research on adaptation practices for semi-arid regions: Further research
is required to map out (a) how ASAL districts of Pakistan can contribute to
building economic resilience in Pakistan; and (b) what adaptation practices
can be adopted to tackle issues in ASAL‟s. Preference should be given to
underdeveloped ASAL districts that are low in human development.
Financial support: Given the chronology of policies and plans in Pakistan,
it is clear that the country is not devoid of policy planning but funding.
Without financial support from the concerned Ministry and without sound
institutional mechanisms providing funds, policy will remain a research
exercise.
Increasing private sector participation: A major gap is the minimal
involvement of businesses in adaptation practices. Individuals and firms
operating in markets are one of the most effective engines of economic
growth. It is thus imperative to introduce incentive based measures that
can encourage the business community to adopt best practices.

Institutional capacity building: A devolved institutional structure has
generated serious challenge to implementation. Effective communication
between and within federal, provincial and municipal bodies is essential for
eliminating government restraints (see section A2.2) and in developing and
implementing strategies like the NAMA‟s1 (LEAD 2010). There‟s also a
need to strengthen policy linkages with actual implementation.
Building awareness: Lack of commitment to fulfill development strategies,
polices and plans may be the result of a limited understanding of
policymakers on the seriousness of the issue. Leveraging potential of
PRISE Stakeholder Engagement Platform (SEP), synergies may be
strengthened with influential stakeholders such as the media, opinion-
makers, and decision-makers etc., to convince policymakers about the
seriousness of the issue.
Utilizing existing frameworks and plans: Keeping the Vision 2025 as a
reference document, PRISE may design research on how climate change
is likely to affect key sectors of the economy by 2025. Also, to facilitate the
formation of a National Adaptation Programme tailored for Pakistan‟s
climate change adaptation needs, existing frameworks like the UNFCCC
National Adaptation Plan can be utilized. A research exercise in reviewing
best practices adopted by developing countries2 with functional NAP‟s3
and seeking technical guidance from LDC expert groups would also
benefit the process.
Despite the direct manifestation of climate change on Pakistan‟s economy,
issues of economic growth, social development, poverty, and climate
change continue to be treated in silos. While these are primarily
government prerogatives, PRISE can offer advice to relevant body to
identify gaps and offer advice on how those could be bridged.
Conclusion
Current development and adaptation frameworks although spell out
„climate proofing‟ as a vital component, they lack concrete action plans to
implement adaptation policy. Governance challenges including the gap
between official policy frameworks and national policies and the lack of
commitment towards existing plans, policies and strategies reflect the
limited understanding of the issue by policy makers, which poses a serious
challenge to its implementation.
These challenges not only serve as a warning of climate change risks, but
also an opportunity to harness climate resilient development. Through the
PRISE research‟s vision of deepening understanding of climate resilience in
Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), this goal can be made a reality.
1
NAMA‟s are defined as policies and actions by countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IFRC, 2013) give its reference
2
For instance, in Kenya and the Dominican Republic
3
Under the Cancun Framework, National Adaptation Plans (NAP‟s) are intended to enable medium and long term adaptation planning by LDC‟s.
Farmer reaping millet corn in Kunri, Pakistan.
© ameer_great

Introduction
“On climate change, we often don‟t fully appreciate that it is a problem. We

think it is a problem waiting to happen.” Kofi Anan
Climate change presents one of the crisis in the coming years, as its per This Country Situation Assessment
most challenging crises that capita surface water availability has (CSA) report focuses on Pakistan‟s
Pakistan faces today. Pakistan is a plunged from 5,000mᶾ/year in vulnerable regions particularly the
low-middle income country that is 1950s to 1000mᶾ in 2035 or it may arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs).
located at the junction of South and occur in 2025 according to some Recent studies indicate that floods,
Central Asia. Almost 60 percent of experts (Kugleman and Hathaway heat-waves and droughts are more
the country‟s 796,095km2 land is 2009). Changes in the water table prevalent than other extreme
arid to semi-arid (ADB 2005). A and poor water management may weather events in ASALs. The
majority of 188 million people in result in more vector borne objective of this CSA report is to
Pakistan are dependent on climate- diseases, such as malaria, dengue, assess these risks and their
sensitive economic sectors for their typhoid, cholera and connection to development,
livelihoods: one-third are engaged malnourishment. Due to the decline highlighting how they may
in the services industry, while in crop yields and quality of food, exacerbate or in some cases even
almost half of the population is the vulnerable, particularly social- facilitate one another. It also
employed in the agriculture sector excluded, minority and marginalized reviews existing adaptation policy
(GoP, 2002). Recurring natural groups, will be further devastated framework and identifies priority
disasters in recent history, including by the effects of climate change. adaptation alternatives for further
the 2010-12 and 2014 floods, have For this reason understanding the research. The report is structured
deepened socio-political and correlation between climate change into three sections: (a) Development
economic fissures by exposing the and development is vital. context; (b) Climate risks and
country to multiple vulnerabilities at development; (c) Implications for
Plausible adaptation measures
the national and sub-national levels. adaptation policy. The report is part
require evidence-based policy at all
Not surprisingly, development of Pathways to Resilience in Semi-
levels of government for the
outcomes have been undermined, arid Economies (PRISE) project that
mobilisation of resources to
as the country lags behind is supported by the International
improve livelihoods and well-being.
important development targets, Development Research Centre
However, limited knowledge, a low
including the UN MDGs. Today, (IDRC) and the Department for
technological base and poor
Pakistan ranks among the world‟s International Development (DFID).
financial resources have impeded
most vulnerable countries to
the development of effective climate
climate change, where modest
resilient initiatives in Pakistan mostly
estimates predict the cost of
in arid and semi-arid lands. The
adaptation to be $10.7 billion per
challenge that federal and provincial
year for the next 40-50 years4. Thus,
governments face is smoothly
unpreparedness towards climate
transitioning the economy and
change may entrench Pakistan
socially vulnerable sectors towards
deeper into poverty.
climate resilience and addressing
Given Pakistan‟s high economic the above-discussed concerns.
dependence on water-resources, Understanding the risks and
extended periods of water stress, magnitude of Pakistan‟s
floods, droughts and heavy rainfall vulnerability to climate change,
pose a direct threat to Pakistan‟s there is an urgent need to respond
food security, health, infrastructure, to climate change vulnerabilities
economy and employment. through effective policy
Pakistan is likely to face a water implementation, better
preparedness plans and sector
4
UNDP Pakistan:
wise adaptation strategies.
http://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/ho
me/countryinfo/
Figure 1: Aridity map of Pakistan based on PMD Station data from 1991-2000
Source: Pakistan Meteroological Department (2000)
Box 1: Semi-arid regions in Pakistan

A r id an d se m i- a rid la n d :
Arid lands are those lands that face a lack of precipitation and water access they are characterized by an
aridity index which scores between the range of 0.05-0.20 and the semi-arid lands range between 0.20-
0.50 (UN, Environment Management Group 2011).
Pakistan is located in the junction of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, sharing borders with China,
Afghanistan, India and Iran with 1046 km of coastline. The climate is generally arid, with hot summers and
cool winters and wide variations in temperature at given locations (see Figure: 1). Its land can be classified
as 60 percent rangelands and 40 percent irrigated lands with a forest cover of less than 5 percent.
(Thenkabail et al, 1999).
Figure 1 shows the aridity map of Pakistan. The map draws data from the last twenty years based on
information given by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) station data from 1991-2000. It can be
seen from the map that southern areas of Pakistan are mainly arid to extremely arid. The areas below 30°N
is the part of continuous series of deserts in the sub-tropics; extending from the Arabian Desert, which
borders Sahara desert, to the Thar desert of Pakistan and India. The climate changes from Arid to Dry
Semi-Arid and Wet Semi-Arid as we move towards north. Aridity changes from Humid and Very Humid as
we move further north towards the sub-montage region, however the northern part of Pakistan having HKH
Mountains again shows Arid and Semi-Arid region. It is important to note here that due to complex
topography of HKH region; most of the weather stations installed by Pakistan Meteorological Department
are in valleys and therefore, these stations do not capture/represent the higher amount of precipitation
falling over the steep slopes as well as the colder temperature. Hence, it can be argued that with the
correct representation of meteorological stations, we may have different aridity classes in the region.
The following section evaluates key development plans (e.g. poverty reduction strategies), and identifies gaps by
reviewing progress in socio-economic contexts (e.g. demographics and urbanisation).

1. The development context
A country‟s capacity to respond to climate change largely depends on the state of its development and its
resilience in key economic sectors. Development is defined here as a multidimensional phenomenon that
embraces progress on political, social and economic fronts through concerted development oriented planning
and agenda setting. Development becomes climate resilient when it overcomes vulnerability, climate-sensitivity
and climate change impacts, without compromising the pace of progress in the above-mentioned domains.
This report refers to development as a broader concept that is not only sustainable and inclusive but also
resilient5 to the impacts of climate change. In order to set the context of Pakistan‟s vulnerability to climate
change, the following section presents a review of the country‟s development vision, priorities and ambitions with
particular reference to semi-arid and arid lands. Sub-section1.1 presents a synopsis of politico-economic history
that shaped Pakistan‟s development landscape through its 67 years of nationhood. These are examined at the
macro-scale with brief references to international influences wherever relevant. We then review Pakistan‟s key
development strategies that shape the country‟s present development conditions. Sub-section 1.2 reviews the
current development status of arid and semi-arid lands of Pakistan by examining major socio-economic
indicators.
Mustard fields in Punjab, Pakistan. © Ayesha Qaisrani
5
We use IPCC AR5‟s definition of resilience, which means „the capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or
trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for
adaptation, learning, and transformation’ (IPCC 2014).
couple the process of economic multiple challenges within the
1.1 Development acceleration and development political, socio-economic and
progress. Since its independence in environmental domains.
ambitions: current 1947, Pakistan has struggled to
Pakistan has seen various periods
achieve socio-economic prosperity
context where overriding focus has been
of boom and bust during its
economic history. Owing to limited
foremost on politico-economic
infrastructure and political turmoil,
stability, economic growth, and
Growth and poverty alleviation. While the
growth was initially stagnant during
the 40s and 50s. While growth
development: national country has shown a gradual shift
levels improved in the 60s, they
policies and plans towards democracy with recent
dropped again in the 70s after two
constitutional devolution, wider
wars, and a separation between the
Development agenda-setting is political participation of women and
country‟s east and west wings.
important as it sets the parameters a rapidly growing urban class, its
within which a country strives to progress is still undermined by
Table 1: Pakistan‟s GDP and per capita growth rate trends (%)
Decade 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2008-13
GDP
6.8 4.8 6.5 4.6 4.9 3.2
growth rate
Source: GoP 2014c
The 80s experienced revived growth percent (GoP 2014c). However, disasters tested politico-economic
levels under a third military Pakistan‟s role as frontline state in resilience in 2000 (drought), 2005
dictatorship, but growth levels the war on terror severely „dented‟ (earthquake) and 2010 (floods).
slumped again through the 90s (see development in the long run (GoP Moreover, the country witnessed
Box 2 on Pakistan‟s early 2009b). Macroeconomic stability wider decentralisation and
development history). was further undermined by crises at deregulation under the influence of
the domestic (energy) and the World Bank.
Towards the 2000s, under the
international levels (financial) in the
ambit of a military regime, growth
late 2000s. Three major natural
levels marginally improved to 4.9
Box 2: Pakistan’s development history

The 1960s witnessed high growth levels of 6.8 percent under a military regime that came to power in 1958.
Basic Democracies system was introduced under Field Marshal Ayub Khan to appease populist sentiments
(Zaidi 2005) and gain grass-roots support1. Pakistan politically legitimized its dictatorship by aligning with
the US in return for foreign aid, which brought macroeconomic stability after 1965 India-Pakistan war.
While GDP growth accelerated exceptionally during this decade (Zaidi 2005; Suleri & Ahmed 2013), some
of the economic gains were reversed due to disastrous climate events in 1960, ‟63, ‟64 and ‟65 that killed
an estimated 56,000 people in East and West Pakistan2. Clearly, the non-egalitarian development
approach in 1960s prioritized economic growth over socio-economic equity and climate resilience; the
result was exacerbated rural and urban income disparities by the end of 60s3.
1
The Basic Democracies system was introduced in 1959 that divided villages and urban units into Union Councils and Town Committees.
2
Estimates based on data from Los Angeles Times article published in May 1985: http://aricles.lastimes.com/1985-05-28/news/mn-
16292_1_20th-century-natural-diasters
3
See Naseem 2012 for more details.

In 1971, former East Pakistan separated to form an independent state of Bangladesh. Interestingly, one of
the major issues between the then East Pakistan and West Pakistan was the Yahya Khan‟s government‟s
mishandling of one of the biggest known natural-disasters in recorded human history. Bhola cyclone hit the
coasts of Bengal (now Bangladesh) in 1970 killing an estimated 500,000 people. Pakistan government‟s
lukewarm response and relief efforts, due to „lack of understanding of the magnitude of the problem‟,
created deep divides that led to widespread resentment and civil unrest, thus contributing to the factors
which led to division of Pakistan.
In the aftermath of the crisis, the 70s witnessed a shift towards leftist policies under Pakistan People‟s
Party (1971-77) that nationalized the private sector and industries. Pakistan experienced relatively lower
levels of economic growth of 4.8 percent owing to post-1971 reconstruction, receding aid flows, and
instable policy implementation. Later, another military coup ousted the Bhutto government in 1977.
During the 1980s, Pakistan saw a gradual shift towards economy-wide deregulation and political
decentralization4. The period also saw massive inflow of foreign assistance (largely due to Pakistan‟s
support in a proxy war in Afghanistan that spurred development spending), and growing remittances by
Pakistani workers in the Gulf. While General Zia-ul-Haq‟s period saw an accelerated GDP growth rate of
6.5 percent (GoP 2014c), the era missed the opportunity to initiate needed structural reforms in socio-
economic sectors (Naseem 2012). Notably, Zia‟s pro-poor economic policies protected vulnerable groups
by formalizing social safety nets in the form of Zakat and Ushr systems that targeted the poor. Reportedly,
by the end of 1980s poverty levels had officially declined by 20 percent, although the claims are contested
by some (Naseem 2012).
The following decade of 1990s, marked by an era of political instability, witnessed experimenting with
Structural Adjustment Programmes under the ambit of IMF and World Bank. Reforms in financial sector,
trade liberalization, subsidy cuts and raised taxes worsened the predicament of the poor, as socio-
economic inequality increased (Naseem 2012). Following Pakistan‟s announcement of its nuclear
programme in the late 90s, a trade embargo further worsened debt deficit. As growth rate levels hit a new
low at 4.6 percent during the 90s, so did the scale and magnitude of poverty (Anwar 1996).
4
The Local Government Ordinance 1979 devolved administrative authority to local governing bodies, where newly-created Union Councils
performed civil, welfare and development functions (Musarrat 2012).
Box 3: History of economic busts during military regimes

Pakistan has had its fair share of military regimes. Interestingly, such periods have also witnessed local
government reforms, and relatively greater economic boom, most likely as a result of greater inflow of
military and financial aid during military regimes (Suleri & Ahmed 2013). An important highlight of Pakistan‟s
past has been the trade-off between defence and development spending; high priority has often been
given to defence spending, which was permanently boosted by the 1965 and 1971 wars (Hasan 1997).
During the 1960s and 1980s, when the military was in power, Pakistan had the highest annual growth rate
of GDP (in South Asia), 6.7 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively (Hasan 1997).
Evidently, domestic experiments with martial law and democracy undermined the development progress
and international influences have also played their role in Pakistan‟s development landscape. For example,
United States‟ economic assistance has played a major role in Pakistan‟s development, during both military
and democratic regimes (Zaidi 2011). During certain periods, aid has also been suddenly withdrawn as was
done in 1989 and 1998 under the pretext of the Pressler Amendment (Zaidi 2011)1. Overall, the focus of
development expenditure during military regimes has been on short-term gains, instead of strategic long-
term gains, the consequences of which are still lingering.

In return for the much needed debt macroeconomic stability), the political unrest charged by judicial
relief and economic assistance strategy was unable to achieve that. activism marked the end of
from International Monetary Fund In fact growth rates hit their historic Musharraf government (1999-2007).
(IMF), Pakistan developed several low in the first two years of PRSP-II Vision 2030 became obsolete after
long-term and medium-term (1.4 percent in 2009 and 2.4 a new democratic government took
development strategies and plans percent in 2010), while growth rate charge in 2008 under President Asif
since 2000, some of which are averaged 3.2 percent during 2008- Ali Zardari.
reviewed below. 13. The strategy met partial
After the 2010 devastating floods,
success, most likely as a result of
Key Economy-wide Strategies and the Planning Commission
the 2010 mega-floods that
Plans in Pakistan introduced the Fr a m ew o r k of
handicapped the economy.
E c o n o m i c G r o w t h (F E G ) (2011),
A series of reforms were introduced
The Me d i u m T e r m which carefully outlined a sound
in 2000s in pursuance of IMF‟s
Develop ment Fra mework growth strategy based on
Poverty Reduction and Growth
(M T D F ) was the blueprint followed international best practices.
Facility. Pakistan‟s In t e r i m
by the government from 2005-10, Concluded through a highly
Poverty Reduction Strategy
the main objectives of which were consultative process, the FEG
P a p e r ( PRS P - in t e r im ) , 2001,
to establish a sustainable economic categorically highlighted human
was instrumental in getting needed
system for poverty reduction and capital and governance as key
debt relief (Kakakhel 2011). One of
move towards economic determinants of economic growth.
the core areas of focus was social
liberalization. The MTDF outlined Furthermore, the strategy gave
protection of vulnerable groups and
various structural impediments to weightage to environmental
environmental sustainability. On
Pakistan‟s growth, which included sustainability in achieving socio-
similar lines, follow-up P o v e r t y
political instability, neglect of economic equity. The FEG was
R e d u c t i o n S tra te g y P a p e r s
education, science and technology complimented by the Benazir
(P RSP - I in 2003, and PRSP - II in
and absence of long-term vision Income Support Programme (BISP)
2009), highlighted accelerated
(GoP 2005). Building on the MTDF, that provided economic cushion to
growth, macroeconomic stability,
the government launched a long- the poorer households through
investment in capital and effective
term V i s i o n 2 0 3 0 in 2007 with extensive social safety nets.
governance as prime factors for
broader targets that recognised
reducing poverty. Both strategies Unlike any previous development
that the country‟s existing
targeted social inclusion and strategy, the framework boasted of
challenges „will be accentuated by
protection of poor and vulnerable „climate proofing‟ development by
the looming climate change‟ (pp.
groups. While PRSP-II ambitiously proposing a short-term action plan
xviii), and that „Pakistan must
targeted to achieve 5-7 percent for the following environmental and
prepare to adapt to [climate
GDP growth per annum over five- climate change objectives:
change], and mitigate [its] negative
year period (through job creation,
impacts‟ in key sectors including
improved income distribution, and
agriculture (pp. 6, 53). However,
Table 2: FEG objectives for sustainable and climate resilient economic growth
1. Protect economic growth from the risk, and associated economic cost, of climate induced natural
disasters by mainstreaming risk reduction and management concerns within the Government‟s
planning processes.
2. „Climate proof‟ economic growth from the impacts of climate change, in particular on the
agricultural, water and energy sectors
3. Promote „green growth‟ by attracting investment in low-carbon technologies.
Source: GoP, 2011b

Moreover, the strategy refrained be bridged in order to push the natural and man-made stresses
from providing a concrete plan of country towards sustainable and (UNDP 2014a).
action on how the targets resilient development. To begin with,
mentioned in Table 2 could be the long-term Vision 2025 Sector specific policies
achieved. overlooks the importance of climate A number of sector specific policies
mitigation or adaptation, despite have been drafted by the civil and
In 2014, under the newly-elected
Pakistan‟s major economic sectors military governments to improve
government of Prime Minister
(i.e. agriculture, water, and energy) outcomes in key sectors. For the
Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan launched
being climate-sensitive. The purpose of this study, we briefly
V i s i o n 2 0 2 5 which is a policy plan
country will be expected to „take review these policies in three
for long-term development (2014-
urgent action to combat climate sectors that are central to
2025). The vision sets optimistic and
change and its impacts‟ as it Pakistan‟s socio-economic
ambitious targets, the success of
commits to the UN‟s new resilience, i.e. water, agriculture
which will require commitment from
Sustainable Development Goals in and health. These sectors are
the core institutions, such as the
2015 (goal 13), however, Vision discussed in more detail in section
Ministry of Finance that releases
2025 sets no specific target on this. A.2.
required budget to translate targets
In fact, neither environmental
into meaningful outcomes. The plan
sustainability nor reduction of Water sector
is expected to be implemented with
carbon emissions makes it to the Water sector is critical in meeting
the help of five-year plans, the first
list of 25 targets that the national development needs of energy
one covering the period
Vision aims to fulfill by 2025. production, industrial growth,
between2013-2018. As the
government completes its second agricultural production, health,
There is also a glaring disconnect
th sanitation and environmental
year this May, the 11 Five-Year between development policy and
protection. About 37 percent of
Plan is yet to be released. planning. Pakistan launched its first
Pakistan‟s energy is produced
National Climate Change Policy
Pakistan has devised a number of through hydropower projects, and
(NCCP) in 2013 with the
national development plans to pull 95 percent of water withdrawals are
overarching goal „to steer Pakistan
economic growth and improve diverted to agricultural use. Of the
towards climate resilient
human development, it has also total food and fibre supplies, 90
development‟ with a focus on
committed internationally to a percent come from lands fed by
„integrating the poverty-climate
number of agreements for irrigated water (GoP 2009a).
change nexus into economic
delivering on sustainable Pakistan has a number of policy
policies and plans‟. However,
development. An important documents covering water sectors,
references to this important policy
framework is the United Nations‟ including draft National Water
are missing in the Vision 2025.
Millennium Development Policy (2009), Water Sector
Go a l s ( M D G s ) that were agreed Lastly, there is inconsistency in the Strategy (2002), Pakistan Water
upon in 2000. The MDGs have development plans of successive Vision 2025, National Sanitation
been critical in harmonising governments, as well as Policy (2006), and National Drinking
domestic efforts towards human development commitments made Water Policy (2009). The major
development. However, by the same government. For focus of these policies has been on
considering that only a few months example, as a signatory to SDGs, improvements in water efficiency.
remain before the completion of Pakistan will be expected to While these policy documents
MDG timeframe (2000-2015), eliminate poverty in every form by reiterate the need for capping water
Pakistan‟s performance is on track 2030. Contrastingly, Vision 2025 losses and improving water
for only 9 out of 34 targets (GoP pledges halfway short of this, as it efficiency particularly in agriculture
2014 & UNDP, 2014a). Progress on targets to reduce poverty by half by sector, water stress continues to
MDGs has been arduous due to 2025. Moreover, the Vision 2025 haunt economic performance in the
challenges faced on the socio- misses an opportunity to set above sectors.
economic, political, and specific targets to reduce income
Considerable attention has been
environmental fronts (see section A disparities, which is reportedly an
paid to water sector in Vision 2025
2.2 for more). emerging concern across arid and
(goal 15), which targets to
semi-arid areas of Pakistan. This is
Gaps in existing important because reducing
maximize water storage capacity,
„improve efficiency of usage in
development plans: inequalities is equally important to
agriculture sector by 20 percent,
enhancing capacities of local
There are many gaps in existing and ensure access to clean
populations to cope with both
development plans that needs to

“These plans are, drinking water for all Pakistanis‟. takes up health-related issues with
however, critiqued Moreover, the government plans to the provinces and relevant
for only paying lip- spend a substantial proportion of departments.
service to agriculture public expenditure (Pakistan
The Vision 2025 sets asides four
Development Support Programme)
sector, and for their on water sector in FY 2014-15, 87
goals (4, 5, 6 & 16) for improving
lukewarm efforts outcomes in health, nutrition and
percent of which will be dedicated
sanitation. It remains to be
towards sectoral to irrigation projects (GoP 2014a).
visualised how these goals can
integration.” meaningfully improve the status of
Agriculture sector
Agriculture is central to Pakistan‟s health in Pakistan.
economy and rural livelihoods (see
sub-section 1.2 and 2.1). A draft 1.2 Socio-economic
Agriculture and Food Security Policy
was released in 2013 by the Ministry status
of National Food Security and
Research with a prime focus on
increasing agricultural productivity. The previous sub-section reviews
Under the recent constitutional the major changes in Pakistan‟s
politico-economic landscape since
amendment (18th Amendment),
independence. Most of the recent
agriculture has become a provincial
development strategies have had
responsibility.
common goals including a focus on
The sector receives significant macroeconomic stability, curtailing
attention in mainstream the role of the public sector, poverty
development plans, with the Vision alleviation and investment in human
2025, PRSP I and II, MTDF, and capital. Although a number of
successive annual plans setting development plans target economic
specific targets to improve growth, few focus extensively on
agricultural contribution in the social sector development such as
economy. These plans are, however, improving access to education,
critiqued for only paying lip-service health, diversified livelihood
to agriculture sector, and for their opportunities and improved
lukewarm efforts towards sectoral employment. Considering these
integration. factors are important in determining
reslience of local population to
Health sector
external shocks and distrubances,
In order to improve health outcomes,
not priortising them may exacerbate
Pakistan launched its draft National (or decrease) local vulnerability to
Health Policy in 2010 that primarily
climate change.
aims at reducing disease burden,
improving service delivery, health In this sub-section we review
governance, and raising public Pakistan‟s present socio-economic
health awareness. Policy overlaps, conditions6 in key macroeconomic
however, exist with other sectoral areas in order to understand how
policies, such as the National they have been shaped by
Sanitation Policy (2006), National development planning and agenda
Food Security and Nutrition Policy setting.
(2012), National Drinking Water
Policy (2009), the National
Population Policy (2010 draft) on
health issues related to sanitation,
nutrition, safe water consumption,
and family-planning. After the
devolution of health ministry to 6
While this review is inspired from Bowen et al
provinces, the Ministry of National (2012) framework on key determinants of climate-
Health Services, Regulations and resilient economic growth, the indicators analysed
here are neither an exhaustive list, nor do they
Coordination in the Centre now imply that improvements in these alone can lead
to a resilient society.
Socio-economic conditions
Box 4: Socio-economic trends
A country‟s capacity to deal with climate risks and the
vulnerabilities it is exposed to thereof, can be
that make developing countries
understood in the light of its socio-economic more vulnerable to impacts of
conditions. Socio-economic conditions shape and climate change:
reflect a country‟s capacity to cope with climate
change vulnerability7. Although Pakistan has made • high rates of population growth (especially in
meaningful progress since independence, the UNDP‟s hazard prone areas);
latest Human Development Report (2014) ranks it
146th out of 187 countries in human development, • urbanisation;
which indicates that Pakistan has one of the lowest • food insecurity;
human development conditions globally. Clearly, a lot
• high levels of poverty;
remains in alleviating poverty, improving health,
education, food insecurity and access to basic • conflicts; and
facilities, as Pakistan is far from achieving the MDGs
• mismanagement of natural resources
(GoP & UNDP 2014). This would be particularly
important if Pakistan is to become an upper-middle „Many such vulnerable countries also suffer from
income country and to join the ranks of world‟s largest weak institutional frameworks, policies and
economies, as ambitiously targeted under Vision 2025. governing systems, all of which combine to lower
Provincially, the differences are magnified where their capacity to manage climate risk. The increase
varying levels of development influence people‟s in the scale and frequency of climate extremes in
access to opportunities and resources. This suggests these low-development regions is devastating and
a worrying situation in arid and semi-arid parts of impedes recovery before the next event; this is
Balochistan, KP, GB, Sindh and the Punjab provinces, causing greater long-term damage as compared
where limited opportunities and high economic with the more immediate impacts of disasters that
dependence on climate-sensitive sectors increases make headline news.‟
provincial vulnerability to climate stresses. Source: Excerpt from UNFCCC 2008
Child vendors selling food in

flood-hit Punjab.
© Tariq Saeed
http://creativecommons.org/li
censes/by-nc-nd/4.0/
7
This relationship is cyclic and not linear. Climate change impacts that are felt in a country are also a reflection of how resilient (or vulnerable) socio-
economic and political systems of the impacted society are.
Table 3: Pakistan: 67 years of development
Time
Indicators 1947 2013 increase
Population (Millions) 34.4 184.4 5.4
GDP (1999-2000 Rs. Bn) 267 9,863 37
Per capita GDP (1999-00 Rs.) 7,742 53,501 6.9
Industrial Value Added 7.8 20.9 2.7
Electric Generation (kw per capita 5.0 517 103
Doctor per million people 30 800 27
Literacy Population (%) 13.6 58.0 4.3
Primary School Enrollment (000) 544 18.748 35
Export (US $Million) 444 24,754 56
Import (US $Million) 319.0 39,822 125
Source: Pakistan Vision 2025
National status
Demography
Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has undergone various transformations. Economically, the country
expanded 37 times, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of Rs. 267 billion, to Rs. 9,863 billion in 2013 (GoP
2014c)8. After the emergence of Bangladesh in 1971, the country shrank geographically. However, it grew
demographically from 34.4 million in 1947 to 188 million in 2014 (GoP 2014c). Pakistan is projected to grow to
become the world‟s 4th most populated country with a population of 242.06 million by 2030 (GoP 2014b). High
fertility rate coupled with low literacy levels, especially amongst the rural women (ibid.) can contribute to this rise.
A technical report by the UNFCCC (2008) deciphers high population growth rates as one of the key undermining
factors that exacerbate developing countries‟ vulnerability to climate change. Pakistan has the second-highest
fertility and population growth rate of 1.95 percent in the region (GoP 2014b). Additional population in arid and
semi-arid areas of Pakistan may intensify competition over scarce resources, such as water and land, thus
pushing more to deprivation and insecurity. While fertility rates are projected to steadily decline by 2030, this
would require concerted efforts by public and private actors in health sector to improve family planning coverage
and contraceptive prevalence.
Figure 2: Population growth in Pakistan
Source: GoP 2014c
8
At 1999-2000 prices. Based on World Bank‟s World Development Indicators, Pakistan‟s present GDP (FY2013) is estimated at Rs. 23,396 billion in
current prices.
Figure 3: World's largest countries by 2030
Source: Euromonitor International from national/UN statistics
The bulk of Pakistan‟s demographic access to facilities, crippling poverty, shrinking rural population against
dividend resides in underdeveloped unpredictable farm incomes and rising urban class. Many urban
areas. Almost 62 percent of exposure to climate risk and centres are being converting into
Pakistan‟s population resides in vulnerabilities in rural areas (WB large agglomerations, with half of
rural areas (GoP 2014b), where the 2014b) are some of the factors the urban population residing in 8
predominant employer is agriculture, triggering rural-urban migration. such agglomerations across
formally engaging 68 percent of Although there are limited studies Pakistan (WB 2014b). By 2030,
rural workforce (WB 2014b). on this, many consider this to be a more than half of Pakistan‟s
Employment rates in rural areas are coping strategy by rural populations population will be residing in urban
relatively high despite lower wages to adapt to climate change impacts. areas (GoP 2014b) with the
(PBS 2013a); this may stem from addition of 80 million more city
lower technical know-how and Urbanisation dwellers (GoP 2007). Official
inability of other sectors to absorb According to the IPCC (2007 in documents report that urban
rural workforce (which continues to UNFCCC 2008), urbanisation is one centres contribute 78 percent to
remain attached to agriculture of the major factors that expose a the national GDP (WB 2014b). Yet,
sector despite its declining role in country to climate risks. Pakistan is urban poverty is a recurring issue
national GDP). Moreover, the second most urbanised country with a number of slum areas in
inadequate spending in rural in South Asia, with an urban urban centres. Presently, 13
development has yielded unequal population of 72.5 million that percent of urban people live below
access to land, water and basic represents 38 percent of the total the national poverty line (GoP 2006
facilities (WB 2014b) which has not population (GoP 2014b). Rural-to- in ADB 2014a).
only exacerbated rural poverty but urban migration rates are
also rural disparity. Thus, limited remarkably high, indicating a

Figure 4: World's fastest growing cities
30
Population number (millions) 2012 2030
25
26.2
20 22.4 21.6
20.1 21.1
15 16.4
14.8 14.6 15.1 14.9
13.6 13.3
10 12.2
10.5
5
0
Shanghai Mumbai Karachi Istanbul Delhi Bejing Lagos
Number (millions)
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics
Pakistan‟s large and rising urban percent and manufacturing 13.2 natural disasters in 2005
class means that the economy has percent (Figure 6). More recently, (earthquake) and 2010 (floods)
to expand further to meet both the despite an economic slowdown in crippled growth in key sectors, and
challenges and opportunities it the 1990s, Pakistan‟s economic displaced millions of people in
presents. Today, Pakistan is the growth revived in the 2000s, affected areas. GDP growth
world‟s 44th largest economy (GoP partially as a result of foreign aid, averaged 3.2 percent during the
2014c) with the 10th largest labour debt relief from Paris Club, and past government‟s tenure (2008-
force (GoP 2014b). consumption-based growth pattern 13), which picked up pace to 4.1
(Kakakhel 2011). With intermittent percent in 2013-14 under a new
Gross Domestic Products (GDP) periods of boom and bust, the government (GoP 2014b). However,
In the six decades since its annual growth rate improved from given the average GDP growth rate
independence, Pakistan has 4.6 percent in 1990 to 5.5 percent of 3.6 percent over the past eight
diversified from a predominantly in 2007. This economic momentum years (see Figure 5), Pakistan‟s
agrarian economy, to a services-led was, however, perturbed following economic performance is reported
economy. Today, services sector 2008 general elections that marked to be on long-term decline, with the
makes up 57.7 percent of national end of military dictatorship at home, „economic slump‟ being the
GDP, where agriculture contributes and the beginning of international „deepest in half a century‟ (WB
21.4 percent, industries 20.9 financial crisis. In between, major 2014a).
Figure 5: GDP Growth
REAL GDP (1999-

-‐2014)
14,000
13,000
12,000
Rs. Billions
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Calculation based on PBS data; GDP in 2007-08 prices

Figure 6: Percentage share in GDP
Source: GoP 2014c
Pakistan also has relatively low level steadily increased. Employment almost 9 percent of urban
of domestic savings when trends across provinces denote employable labour force looking for
compared regionally. The rising that Balochistan, a highly arid job is unemployed, compared to 5
cost of doing business in Pakistan, province, has the greatest number percent in rural areas (PBS 2013a).
as a consequence of the worsening of people formally engaged in Given the large and expanding
law and order situation, has pushed agriculture. Sindh leads the population of Pakistan, concerted
out domestic and foreign employment share in the trade investments in human capital
investments, further constraining sector, closely followed by the development, that focus on building
growth rate. Punjab. However, unemployment and enhancing skills (such as Prime
among Pakistan‟s employable Minister‟s Youth Programme), can
Employment workforce has gradually increased help strengthen and expand
With a few exceptions, formal in recent years, from 5.6 percent in productive capacities of employable
employment in major sectors has 2010 to 6.2 percent in 2013; workforce.
Table 4: Employment share by sector (%)
Major Sectors 2009-10 2010-11 2012-13
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Agriculture/Forestry/Hunt
45.0 36.6 74.9 45.1 36.2 75.4 43.7 34.5 75.7
ing & Fishing
Manufacturing 13.2 13.9 11.0 13.7 14.5 10.9 14.1 15.0 10.7
Construction 6.7 8.5 0.3 7.0 8.9 0.2 7.4 9.5 0.2
Wholesale & retail trade 16.3 20.2 2.1 16.2 20.4 1.6 14.4 18.1 1.5
Transport/Storage &
5.2 6.6 0.3 5.1 6.6 0.1 5.5 7.0 0.2
Communication
Community/social &
11.2 11.2 11.2 10.8 10.8 11.5 13.3 13.9 11.5
personal service
Other 2.4 3.0 0.2 2.1 2.6 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.2
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 2013a
Despite decline in the share of GDP, generating employment (44 percent sectors (e.g. textiles industry). It
agriculture still remains the jobs), provisioning food, and relies heavily on informal
backbone of economy in terms of providing raw materials to important
employment in which women foreign remittances. Pakistan is the exposure to climate risks are rooted
contribute substantially. world‟s 7th biggest recipient of in inequalities that emerge from
official remittances (GoP 2014b). In unequal development processes
The sector is characterised by small
the year 2014 alone, remittances (IPCC 2014). Pakistan‟s weak
family farms where family members
contributed $14 billion to the social and economic development
work informally (WB 2014a). While
economy, forming a major chunk of means that the fruits of growth
this is also the reason behind large
foreign exchange reserves (WB, have been slowly and unequally
underemployment, this protects
2014a). More importantly, shared with the less advantaged.
many poor households from
remittances support low-income National figures show that poverty9
„complete immiseration‟ (WB
households especially during acute has reduced from 34.7% in 2002 to
2014a). The same is true for
crises (Suleri & Savage 2006), as 12.4% in 2011 (GoP & UNDP 2014;
informal employment in urban areas.
was seen during 2010 floods. It is WB 2014b).
In fact, Pakistan‟s informal
also known that during climatic
economy is estimated to be above While these claims are currently
disasters, financial capital is one of
70 percent (WB 2014a). Rapid under review by the government
the least affected as the source of
urbanisation further presents (GoP 2014a), international
capital (remittances) is outside the
greater opportunities to the organisations, such as the World
affected area. The increasing trend
economy to expand to non-farm Bank, have commended Pakistan
of remittances in Pakistan over the
sectors. for achieving Millennium
years seems to be positively
Development Goal 1 by halving
Women’s status correlated with climate/natural
poverty between 1991 to 2011 (WB
Women employment is low on disasters (WB 2014b), indicating
2014b). Experts, however criticize
overall basis with rural women that remittance can enhance
the official poverty quantification
being twice as likely to work (mostly coping mechanisms of affected measures for their focus on caloric
in agriculture sector) than women in households to recover from (consumption)-based indicators,
urban areas (WB 2014b). Formally, disasters.
which ignore non-economic
only 24 percent females are deprivations that accompany
Infrastructure development
currently part of the labor force poverty, such as lack of access to
Well-developed infrastructure can
(PBS 2013a). Women literacy rates education, health services,
facilitate access to facilities which
are comparatively low. Health sanitation, protection against
ultimately strengthens adaptive
indicators reveal that while women shocks and climate disasters.
capacities to respond to climate
tend to live longer, they tend to Some recent independent studies
risks through improved living
have lower health status, with have tried to quantify these multiple
standards. Pakistan has an
women being more susceptible to dimensions of poverty, in addition
elaborate network of roads and
communicable diseases than that to capturing both its incidence and
railroads across regions. Municipal
of men. Access to services and intensity. SDPI carried out a similar
services provide basic services in
facilities further compound their study in 2011/12 which estimates
urban areas. However, the country
predicament, where the main that as much as 33 percent of
has limited infrastructure to treat
barrier appears to be their restricted population lives in poverty with
urban waste, most of which is
mobility under present cultural large intra-provincial and rural-
dumped in open areas or in river
norms. Not surprisingly, more urban disparities (Naveed & Ali
bodies. Industrial production is
women tend to live in poverty 2012). Most of these disparities fall
currently throttled by irregular
particularly in rural areas where in arid and semi-arid districts that
power outages that reflect poor
unequal access to facilities, are constrained by
management of energy sector.
education and employment underdevelopment and lack of
Lack of infrastructure development
opportunities undermines their resources (e.g. water).
in energy sector has led to
livelihood capacities (Lopex-Calix et
shortages in supply which is
al 2014). Thus, women tend to be
adversely impacting industry and
more vulnerable to extreme climate
constraining employment
events.
opportunities. The sector is marred
Foreign remittances by mis-targeted energy subsidies
A recent report by the World Bank that benefit the rich, high line-losses,
appraises Pakistan‟s economy to and high administrative expenses. 9
The Ministry of Planning, Development &
Reform calculates poverty based on HIES data:
be „extremely resilient‟ (WB 2014a).
Poverty and vulnerability the proportion of people with consumption below
Primary buffers that protect the calorie-based national poverty line (GoP
The IPCC latest Assessment
economy are stated to be 2009b). It is estimated after converting
Report (AR5) denotes that household expenditure equivalent to adult-
agriculture, urbanisation, and recommended nutritional level of 2350 calories
differences in vulnerability and
per person per day (GoP 2014b).
Table 5: Poverty statistics of Pakistan
1990 or Nearest 2012 or Latest
Poverty and Inequality Year Year
Proportion of population living below the national poverty line percent 30.6 (1999) 12.4 (2011)
Urban 20.9 (1999) 13.1 (2006)
Rural 34.7 (1999) 27.0 (2006)
Proportion of population living below $2-a-day at 2005 PPP$ percent 88.2 (1991) 60.2 (2008)
Ratio of income or consumption of the highest quintile to lowest
5.2 (1991) 4.2 (2008)
quintile
Source: ADB 2014b; GoP 2011b
While these claims are currently have tried to quantify these multiple people, or 13%, live on daily
under review by the government dimensions of poverty, in addition income of $1.25 - $1.50 (WB 2014
(GoP 2014a), international to capturing both its incidence and b). In a country with per capita
organisations, such as the World intensity. SDPI carried out a similar income of US$1,386 (GoP 2014b),
Bank, have commended Pakistan study in 2011/12 which estimates almost one-fifth (18.1 percent) of
for achieving Millennium that as much as 33 percent of employed people live on less than
Development Goal 1 by halving population lives in poverty with $1.25 per day (ADB 2014a). In
poverty between 1991 to 2011 (WB large intra-provincial and rural- 2008, 60.2 percent of population
2014b). Experts, however criticize urban disparities (Naveed & Ali was reported to be surviving on
the official poverty quantification 2012). Most of these disparities fall less than $2 a day (PPP) (ADB
measures for their focus on caloric in arid and semi-arid districts that 2014b). Despite a decrease in the
(consumption)-based indicators, are constrained by number of people living under the
which ignore non-economic underdevelopment and lack of poverty line, the number of people
deprivations that accompany resources (e.g. water). vulnerable to poverty have
poverty, such as lack of access to increased from 53 percent in 1999
Despite the significant achievement,
education, health services, to 60% in 2011 (Lopex-Calix et al
still a large number of people
sanitation, protection against 2014).
subsist on the margins of poverty.
shocks and climate disasters.
Presently an estimated 23 million
Some recent independent studies
Figure 7: Projected household vulnerability (to poverty) rates under two growth scenarios
Source: Lopex-Calix et al 2014

Figure 8: Proportion of population using improved drinking water
Proportion of Population Using an Improved Drinking
Water Source and Sanitation Facility, 2012
100
80
60
Percent
40
20
0
Rural Urban Rural Urban
Drinking Water Source Sanitation Facility
Source: Asian Development Bank (2014b)
When compared to its South Asian some protection to the poor, but This is astonishing especially when
neighbours, Pakistan has are limited in coverage of comparing Pakistan‟s outstanding
outperformed many economies in households (Lopex-Calix et al, performance in agriculture sector10.
reducing poverty relatively in line 2014). On the other hand, safety
with its economic growth (WB net programmes such as the Bait ul Health
2014a; Lopex-Calix et al 2014). Mal programme are not well Declining water quality and poor
Upon a closer look, however, targeted to the poor. Given their access to sanitation facilities
poverty is distributed based on preconditions, poor and vulnerable negatively affect human health. The
rural-urban, gender, spatial, groups are subject to higher World Bank estimates that poor
provincial differences. While all the economic and climatic water and sanitation losses cost
provinces have made important vulnerabilities especially during nearly 4 percent of the GDP, with
strides in reducing poverty since extreme weather events. diarrhea alone estimated to cost
the 1990s, there are still a large US$ 800 million in economic losses
Poverty and lack of social (WB 2014b). While there is no
number of households within each
protection means that poor reliable figures on proportion of
province that are clustered around
people‟s access to amenities and disease burden as a result of poor
the poverty line, and hence
facilities is also handicapped or sanitation and water quality,
vulnerable, the highest vulnerability
limited. Considering that 60 percent present estimates range anywhere
being apparent in Sindh (Naveed &
of the country is arid to semi-arid from 20 percent (WB 2014b) to 70
Ali 2012) and Baluchistan (Lopex-
(ADB 2008), access to clean percent (GoP 2014c), with the
Calix et al 2014). Rural poverty is
drinking water is precondition for government claiming that nearly 70
highest in KP and Sindh, whereas
healthy well-being. Access to percent of all diseases caused are
income inequality is greatest in the
improved water sources has water-borne. With projected rise
Punjab and Sindh (ibid). But in
improved since 1990 from 85 to 91 population and climate variability in
terms of access to services and
percent in 2012 (ADB 2014b). coming decades, water-availability
facilities, inequality is highest
However, water quality in rural is likely to dwindle as rainfall and
between the poor and non-poor in
areas remains very poor, and worst temperature patterns change. This
Sindh (Lopex-Calix et al 2014).
in largely arid province of may further compound water-
Interestingly, while poverty has Baluchistan (Tahir et al. 2010). related health problems in arid and
declined, the salaried and non- Access to sanitation facilities has semi-arid areas of Pakistan that
agricultural employment sectors improved unequally in urban (72 have a highly compromised health
appear to be shrinking, indicating percent) and rural areas (34 standing.
an unfavourable environment for percent) (ADB 2014b). Still, 118.5
low-income people, and hence million people do not have access
suggesting that a large proportion to improved sanitation facilities,
of the population may be vulnerable whereas 92 million are not using
to poverty (Lopex-Calix et al, 2014). improved drinking water source.
10
Social protection programmes, Malnutrition prevails widely as 30 Pakistan is the 7th largest wheat
producer/exporter, and 5 th largest milk producer,
such as the Benazir Income percent of children under the age of and 5th largest rice exporter in the world. See
Support Programme (BISP) provide 5 are underweight (ADB 2014b). SDPI‟s upcoming food security report (2013) for
more.
Pakistan‟s health system is which is far behind the 88 percent the past two decades to check
fragmented with poor overall health MDG target to be achieved by Pakistan‟s high deforestation rates.
status (GoP 2011b). Government‟s 2015 (GoP 2014 & UNDP 2014). However, unabated deforestation
low prioritisation attached to the Moreover, there is discrepancy in continues at an estimated rate of
sector is reflective in the low health rural-urban, gender and provincial 0.2-0.5 percent per annum.
expenditure that is under 1 percent literacy levels. Public expenditure
of GDP. The latest MDGs report on education is below 2 percent of Governance
shows that Pakistan lags behind GDP, which the government Governance remains a challenge in
major health targets on maternal foresees to upscale to 4 percent by Pakistan. Repeated military coups
and child health (see GoP & UNDP 2018 under the Vision 2025 (GoP and military establishment‟s
2014). Provincially, Balochistan is 2014c). but Net primary enrolment interference in the affairs of elected
the most underserved in coverage is 72 percent, but proportion of governments have led to political
of health services (WB 2014b). children able to complete education and socio-economic instability in
Sindh is marginally better. Last year primary is 61 percent (ADB 2014a). the country. The result is
a number of deaths resulted from weakened institutions and
hunger and malnutrition in the arid Forest degradation trends incoherent policy framework that is
district of Tharparker. The same Pakistan is a forest deficit country ill-suited and ill-targeted to meet the
year, Sindh cut short its health with less than 5 percent of its land needs of a population that is
expenditure by 23 percent, under forest cover (GoP 2005). haunted by climate risks and
reportedly due to a deficit of Rs.81 Despite its limited share in the vulnerabilities.
billion in federally allocated budget national economy, forestry sector
Moreover, macro-policies have
(UNDP 2014a). Although the provides services that are important
consistently called for a reduction in
government plans to upscale health to socio-economic development of
the government‟s role because of
investment to 3 percent of GDP by the country. For example, forests
inefficient public sector
2025 (GoP 2014c), this will need to are invaluable in prolonging the life
management since the government
be accompanied by similar of dams that generate hydro-
enterprises are currently overstaffed,
investments across the provinces in electricity for the industrial sector.
lack accountability mechanisms,
improving access to amenities such Similarly, mangrove forests in arid,
and are unable to adjust to
as clean and safe drinking water, coastal areas of Sindh and
changing market conditions (IPP
sanitation, etc. Balochistan play a role in
2013). Some solutions include
combating natural and man-made
shutting down, privatizing or
Education hazards (Mukhtar and Hannan
restructuring of enterprises in order
Performance in education is 2012), and also support marine life
to increase efficiency, enhance
somewhat similar. While progress that is a source of livelihood for
competitiveness and make
has been made in improving the fishermen community. Forests are
productivity gains. In order to be
access to and quality of education, critical to maintenance of ecological
able to achieve this, there is a dire
a lot is needed to achieve the goal balance, watershed protection, soil
need for adequate investment in
of Education for All. Pakistan ranks conservation and water regulation
human capital, expanding research
113th out of 120 countries in (Khan and Mahmood, 2003).
capacity, and improving
UNESCO‟s Education for All Despite their importance,
governance (GoP 2011b).
Education Development Index (GoP Pakistan‟s forests are shrinking at a
2014c). Literacy rate, according to rapid rate. A series of institutional
national figures, is 58 percent, reforms have been introduced in
Figure 9: Public expenditure on education as a % of GDP
2.5
2
% of GDP
1.5
1
0.5
0
1990 2000 2010 2014
Year
Source: Based on data from GoP 2014b

Following a constitutional change challenges that rooted in require effective harmonisation of
(18th Amendment), a number of macroeconomic instability and development targets, at the federal
important constitutional functions weak governance. Despite and provincial levels. At the macro
have been devolved from the progress, poverty and inequality level, investments in improved
federation to the provinces. These persist with provincial and rural- governance and institutional-
include the Ministries of Agriculture, urban disparities that are magnified strengthening can pay off in the
Environment, Education, Health, etc. in. Pakistan‟s poor performance in long term to build viable state
The shift has followed changes in human development is particularly systems are responsive to climate
financial regulation to facilitate accentuated in arid and semi-arid challenges.
budgetary allocation to provincial areas of the country, that constitute
To this end, recent efforts in policy
ministries through the National 60-80 percent of Pakistan‟s land
making and development planning
Finance Commission (NFC). While (GoP &UNEP 2013; ADB 2005).
are positive (i.e. NCCP 2013; FEG
the shift has unlocked new With limited access to key
2011; Vision 2025) in the sense that
opportunities to autonomously resources (e.g. water, capital,
it has raised awareness among
pursue and execute subjects suited employment opportunities), such
bureaucracy and policy circles
to provincial contexts, it has also areas are also prone to multiple
about the impacts of climate
presented numerous challenges to vulnerabilities that undermine in
change.
lesser-advantaged provinces, such health, sanitation and education.
as Balochistan and GB, that are Given the present development
Despite climate change‟s direct
underdeveloped and have limited landscape of Pakistan, existing
manifestations on Pakistan‟s
administrative capacities and social, economic and political
development (see Section 3), the
resources to compete with more vulnerabilities are likely to magnify in
policy rhetoric largely misses out on
developed and hence advantaged arid and semi-arid areas due to the
climate resilient development. This
provinces. The weak governance climate change. The IPCC (2014)
is because efforts towards
coupled with a deteriorating law warns that complex human-climate
development, sustainability and
and order situation has led to fall in interactions are likely to impact
climate adaptation have so far been
Pakistan‟s Global Competititve socio-economic growth and „offset‟
treated in silos with little
Rank from 83 in 2007 to 133 in development progress. These are
interconnection between these
2013 (IPP 2013) which has likely to be aggravated in economic
factors at the planning and
prompted investors to search for sectors that play a key role in the
implementation levels. As
securer havens abroad. livelihoods of populations of arid
discussed earlier, most sectoral
and semi-arid areas. Understanding
policies (particularly water,
1.3 Conclusion agriculture and energy) remain
that climate impacts on health,
agriculture and water sector can
technocratic prescriptions that are
potentially undermine socio-
Pakistan has seen dramatic shifts in disconnected from mainstream
economic development (UNFCCC
development policy. This may be a
economic growth levels, strategic 2008), these are reviewed in more
reason why progress in many
alliances, civil-military relations, and detail in the next section.
important MDGs is rather slow.
development policies. The country
Ensuring a meaningful progress
presently face a number of
towards post-2015 SGDs would

2. Climate and development
The section provides a review of (a) observed and projected climate change in different parts of Pakistan (b)
climate impacts on important sectors like, water, agriculture, and health; and (c) a systematic assessment of how
climate risks may affect development ambitions of Pakistan.
40% by the 2050s at high latitudes globally. These trends indicate a

2.1 Climate change and in some wet-tropical areas; significant rise in temperature,
and a decrease by 10-30% over variability in precipitation, frequent
risks some dry regions at mid-latitudes extreme weather events (floods and
and in the dry tropics for the same droughts; heat or cold waves),
time period. However, in the Fifth glacier melting and sea level rise.
There is now a consensus among
Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC
the global scientific community that South Asia
(2014) reported with robust
the global climate has been South Asia has diverse climate
evidence and high agreement that
changing, which is evident in zones which collectively represent
due to continued warming the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate arid, semi-arid, mountainous or
water flows in glacier-fed rivers will
Change (IPCC)‟s increasing high land, humid, tropical and sub-
increases in many regions during
confidence level in its periodic tropical regions. Review of some
the next decades but decrease
assessments. For example, in its recent climatic trends indicates that
thereafter.
First Assessment Report, the IPCC South Asian countries are exposed
(1990) concluded that Green House As mentioned in the previous to both observed and projected
Gases (GHGs) concentration in the section, Pakistan is already changes. Country specific studies
atmosphere is „substantially vulnerable to many non-climate (Table 6) reported to UNFCCC
increasing‟ due to human activity. In stresses. The multi-faceted impacts show that temperature has
2013, IPCC reported that „it is of climate change on physical and increased more in winter than in
extremely likely that human socio-economic systems may summer (IPCC 2013; Cruz et al.
influence has been the dominant further exacerbate vulnerability, 2007) across all agro-climatic
cause of the observed warming leading to large-scale instability. regions in South Asia. In general,
since the mid-20th century‟. Therefore, the scale at which the precipitation trends show
Inevitably, the fallout effect of climate change threatens the temporal variation across South
climate change is felt on both country calls for immediate action Asia, as shown in Table 5. This is
human societies and natural to cope with its adverse effects. likely to increase the incidence of
systems. heat waves, floods, and droughts,
Observed and projected all of which may bear socio-
The Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) of IPCC (2007b) projected climate change economic and environmental
with high confidence level that an Evidence from both observed and consequences for South Asia.
increase in annual average river projected investigations on climate
runoff and water availability by 10- indicators show varying trends

Table 6: Observed temperature and precipitation change in South Asia
Country Temperature change (oC) Change in Precipitation

Decrease by 2 % per decade (1960-
Afghanistan Increase of 0.6 oC (1960-2003)
2003)
Decrease by 0.5% per decade (1960-
Bangladesh Increase of 0.3-0.5 oC (1960-2003)
2003)
Bhutan Increase of 0.01 oC per year (1961-2000) --
India Increase of0.56 oC (1901-2007) Decreasing trend all parts of India

o o
Increase in Max. 0.17 C &Min. 0.07 C per Decreasing to 2.7-7.6mm per year
Maldives (1969-1999)
decade (1969-1999)
Decreasing 9.8mm per decade (1981-
Nepal Increase of 0.41 oC per decade (1981-1998)
1998)
Increasing to about 61mm (1901-
Pakistan Increase of 0.47 oC (1960-2007)
2008)
Decreasing to 9.46mm per year (1961-
Sri Lanka Increase of 0.48 oC (1960-1990)
2007)
Sources: Various National Communications to UNFCCC; Liu 2009; McSweeney et al. 2012; Chaudhary et al. 2009;
The IPCC‟s Fifth Assessment Reports (2013) projects that South Asia‟s average temperature and rainfall trends
may shift, as compared to that in the 20th century (see box 5). Due to this increased warming in the region, the
frequency of hot days (high confidence) and more frequent and heavy rainfall events may occur (low confidence).
Box 5: IPCC AR5 climate change projection for South Asia

Te m p e r a t u r e t r e n d s :
High-emission scenarios: Annual average temperature could rise by more than 2 oC over land in most of
South Asia by the mid-21st century and exceed 3oC, up to more than 6 oC over high latitudes, by the late
21st century. Low-emission scenarios: Annual average temperature could rise by less than 2 oC in the 21st
century, except at higher latitudes, which could be up to 3 oC warmer.
Ra i n f a l l t r e n d s :
High-emission scenarios: More rainfall will be very likely at higher latitudes by the mid-21st century over
southern areas in Asia. Low-emission scenarios: More rainfall at higher latitudes is likely by mid-century but
substantial changes in rainfall patterns are not likely at low latitudes. More frequent and heavy rainfall days
are projected over parts of South Asia (low confidence).
Source: CDKN 2014

approximately 0.6°C since the in 20th century over Pakistan.
Pakistan beginning of the 20th century. Considerable increase is observed
When compared globally, there is However, this increase over major in the northern areas of the country
limited scientific research on climate parts of the country is not by 15 to 25 percent mainly during
change modelling in Pakistan. significant. Significant (above the monsoon season. However,
Despite the importance of the issue, average) annual mean temperature negative trends are found in
the country lacks a comprehensive increase has been observed in the southern parts which may be
assessment of climate change south-western province of attributed to presence of a drought
projections at the sub-national Balochistan, which is mostly arid to at the end of 20th century. Similarly,
scale. A couple of studies have hyper arid. Sheikh et al. (2009) Sheikh et al. (2009) has also found
been conducted over the region using Pakistan Metrological an increase in precipitation in
using different regional and global Department (PMD) station data, northern area of Pakistan during
climate models (McSweeney et al. show an increasing trend in the Monsoon period. They also found a
2012, Haensler 2013). However, mean annual temperature across decrease in precipitation trend in
these studies rely on single model the whole country. However, for the arid areas of southern Pakistan.
approach that fails to capture Monsoon season, Sheikh et al.
uncertainties involved in the The frequency of extreme weather
(2009) found a decreasing trend
modeling system. Globally, use of events has shown an increasing
except for Balochistan plateau in
multi-model ensemble is preferred trend in Pakistan (see table 7). The
the south western province of the
over the single model approach to frequency of heat waves has
country. In another study
generate future climate change increased throughout the country
(http://www.pmd.gov.pk/CC%20In
projections. (Zahid and Rausl, 2011), with a
dicators.pdf), PMD has reported an
significant increase in northern, and
increase in number of heat waves
Observed/Historical trends semi-arid to arid areas of the
days across Pakistan on annual
Different studies have indicated an country. This implies that these
basis at the rate of 11 days per
increase in mean average regions may become vulnerable to
decade.
temperature in Pakistan. A study future extremes. Similarly,
carried out by Haensler (2013), For precipitation, the observed frequency of extreme precipitation
which uses multi-modelling system, trend show increase in northern events has evidently increased
[using CRU UEA datasets areas of Pakistan as compared to a across Pakistan, with a significant
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/in slight decrease in southern areas of increase in northern areas, Sindh,
dex.html] states that the mean Pakistan. According to Haensler and Balochistan (see Table 6).
annual temperature has slightly (2013), averaged annual total
increased across Pakistan by precipitation has slightly increased
Table 7: Observed trends in climate extreme events in Pakistan
Heat /Cold days and The observed average number of „hot‟ days and nights per year has increased by
Waves 20 (5.5 percent of days) and 23 (6.4 percent of nights) respectively between 1960
and 2003;
The decrease in „cold‟ days and nights by 9.7 (2.7 percent of days) and 13 (3.6
percent of nights) for the same period above.
Significant rise in moderate to severe heat waves (31 days) during 1981 to 2008 in
all parts of country.
Cold wave days increase in all (North-Western) mountainous regions (30-60 days)
but decrease in North and Eastern Punjab and Southern parts of Sindh during
1980-2007.
Heavy precipitation Observed increase in Heavy Precipitation days in many parts of Pakistan such as
days/events and Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar, Jehlum, Murree, etc . Observed increase in floods
Floods and flash floods (e.g., subsequent 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2014)
Droughts Observed increase in subsequent drought occurrence in Pakistan [since mid-

1990s]
Cyclones Observed decreasing trend in cyclones occurrences [for Bay of Bengal and
Arabian Sea at the rate of about 6 to 7 disturbances per hundred years during the
monsoon season]
Sources: McSweeney et al. 2012; Chaudhary, et al 2009; Thenkabail, et al 2004; Singh 2001;

from Coupled Model Inter- the period 2070-2099, figure 11
Projected trends comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used (a&b; c&d) shows a huge difference
The mean temperature in Pakistan in AR5 (see Box 6). Results between the two scenarios. For the
is likely to increase by 3.8°C by projected that in the first interval of case of RCP4.5, the increase of
2100 (Haensler 2013), with 2030-2059, both scenarios show temperature remains less than 3.5
projected changes in temperature, quite similar results with RCP8.5 degrees with the maximum
precipitation, heat waves, dry spell showing slightly warmer increase seen over the mountains in
and heavy rainfall events, but under temperature on the western the northern areas of the country.
different confidence levels (as latitudinal belt. However, over the For the case of RCP8.5, the
shown in Table 8). irrigated plains (that are mostly increase in temperature becomes
Using in-house expertise at SDPI, semi-arid to arid) both the as high as 5 degree, again with the
we developed climate scenarios for scenarios show a temperature highest increase over the
Pakistan using latest GCMs data increase of 2 degrees or less. For mountains in the northern region.
Table 8: Summary of climate change projections for Pakistan by 2100
Climatic
parameters Projected trends by 2100 Confidence level
Increase to 3.8°C (likely range: 2.1°C to 5.1°C);
Annual mean
Maximum temperature increase in 3.4°C Minimum temperature High
Temperature
increase of 3.8°C
No substantial change; (likely range -25% to +26%)
Total annual Decrease in the first half of the year (January to May – up to -17
Low
Precipitation percent), and:
A slight increase in the second half (up to +12%).
Heat waves Increase by 28 days Medium
Duration of dry spell increase of 1 day (likely range from -8 to +23

Dry spell Low
days)
Heavy rainfall Increase of 8% (likely range from -8% to +34%) Medium

Source: Haensler, 2013

Box 6: SDPI’s climate change projection for Pakistan
Future scenarios of precipitation and surface temperature have been developed at SDPI for Pakistan using
latest GCMs data from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used in IPCC AR5 (Assessment
Report Five). Here we used two IPCC scenarios in our analysis i.e RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 representing
medium and high-end scenario respectively. For both surface temperature and precipitation, we calculated
the median of the ensemble for both the scenarios, focusing over two time periods 2030-2059 and 2070-
2099 respectively. For the case of surface temperature, we subtracted base period (1970-1999) from the
two future periods. However for the case of precipitation, we calculated the percentage difference between
future and base periods.
Figure 10: Panels „a & b‟ and 'c & d' show the surface temperature difference (oC) using RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. Similarly, panels „e & f‟ and 'g &h' show the precipitation difference (%)
using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. Panels in the upper and lower rows are for the time
periods (2030-2059) and (2070-2099) respectively.
An important point to note here is that there is not enough difference between the two time periods i.e.
middle and end of the century for both the scenarios. All the plots show an increase in precipitation over
southern Afghanistan and adjoining areas of Pakistan, however it should be noted that this area receives
very little precipitation throughout the year and a small change would appear as a big percentage
difference. However, RCP8.5 shows a clear decrease in precipitation over the monsoon belt. Moreover,
this decrease is most evident over the arid and semi-arid regions of the country.
Source: SDPI.

Climate risks in key sectors: impacts and challenges
As evident from above section, Pakistan is also witnessing similar climate change trends as the rest of the world.
Climate change has already caused substantial disturbances, not only in the natural environment, but also in the
social and economic domains. However, climate risks can vary across different climatic zones of Pakistan. For
example, the arid and semi-arid regions, that are highly populated and dependent on irrigated agriculture, are
particularly vulnerable to declining water supplies, erratic rainfall, and decreasing crop yield. Meanwhile, the arid
coastal zones face the risk of sea-level rise and sea surface-temperature rise, which may result in coastal
flooding, sea intrusion and soil erosion. The glacier-laden high mountains are also exposed to climate risk, as
they are vulnerable to deforestation, biodiversity loss, and high glacier-melt variability.
Water resources and climate risks in Pakistan

Pakistan is divided into three hydrological units: the Indus basin, the Kharan desert and Makran coastal basin
(GoP 2003b). Kharan desert is a closed basin, whereas Makran basin is also an arid basin along the Arabian Sea
in the south of the country. Therefore, the surface water hydrology of Pakistan is dominated by the Indus River
which resembles a funnel with a number of water resources at the top converging into a single river that flows
into the Arabian Sea11 (Figure 11). Agriculture, being a key economic sector, is heavily dependent on flows of the
Indus River System (IRS).
Figure 11: Layout of Indus River system network
Source: The Encyclopaedia of Earth (2014)
11
Indus River originates from Tibetan plateau and attains an initial east-west direction. After passing through the HKH region, it gets a north south direction
as shown in Figure 11. Indus river has five major tributaries; Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej, but under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) between Pakistan
and India, Pakistan is entitled to the flow of three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) with occasional spills from the eastern rivers of Sutlej and Ravi
diverted upstream by India.
Box 7: Rainfall patterns in Pakistan
Pakistan has four distinct rainfall seasons:
M o n s o o n 1 s e a s o n spans from June to September and has its rainfall sources both from Arabian Sea
and the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon season accounts for about 55 percent of Pakistan‟s total annual rainfall.
Wi n t e r s e a s o n consists of four months from December to March. Mainly, the northern regions of
Pakistan above 30°N receive precipitation during this season. The precipitation in this season occurs from
the low pressure system originating from Mediterranean Sea. These low pressure systems travels towards
east under the influence of upper air westerlies also called as sub-tropical jet stream. In far northern parts
of the country, the western disturbances remain active more or less throughout the year. Northern regions
above 35°N receive precipitation mostly in the form of snow. Precipitation during this season accounts for
about 30 percent of Pakistan‟s total annual rainfall.
P r e - M o n s o o n consist of Months of April, May and parts or at times whole of June constitutes this
season. This season characterizes by generally hot and dry climate. However this season play a vital role
for the on-set of monsoon, as a semi-permanent thermal low develops over southern Punjab, parts of
Balochistan and adjoining areas of Sindh province. This semi-permanent thermal low facilitates the flow of
maritime air masses from Arabian Sea to flow uninterrupted to the sub-montane regions other parts of the
country depending upon the prevalent weather conditions. This season accounts for about 12 percent of
the country‟s total rainfall.
P o s t - M o n s o o n : This season consists of months of October and November, and servers as a transition
between Monsoon and winter seasons. The precipitation in this season amounts around 3-4 percent of the
total country‟s rainfall.
1
The word “monsoon” is derived from the Arabic word “Mausim” which means “Season”. This name is given by the Arabian sailors who used to
travel from Arabia to India for trade purposes and encountered heavy winds during summer season. By definition, monsoon is a tropical and sub-
tropical seasonal reversal in both surface winds and associated precipitation, caused by differential heating between land and ocean.
The lower half of the country widespread glacier accretion in represent the whole regional
receives less than 200 mm of Central and Western Karakoram glaciers mass change (IPCC 2014).
annual rainfall with most of it region (Hewitt 2005; Archer &
A few studies have explored the link
occurring during the monsoon Fowler 2004), whereas others
between climate change and water
season (see box 7). Both the project that Western Himalayan
resources of Pakistan. One of the
intensity and volume in monsoon glaciers will retreat in next 50 years,
studies carried out by Saeed et al.
season are erratic and cannot be followed by a decline in later half of
(2009), [using University of British
utilized for crops production. the century (Briscoe & Qamar 2005).
Columbia‟s watershed model
Such variability is likely to result in
Indus River contributes more than (UBCWM)] assesses the effects of
changes in river flows and ablation
45 percent of average annual flows climate change on water availability
processes in glaciated areas, which in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of
of western and eastern rivers
could result in glacier lake outburst
(Planning Commission 2010). The Pakistan13. The findings of the study
floods (GLOFs) (Xu et al. 2009).
main source of IRS flows under point to a decline in water
Pakistan‟s control is snow and More recently, IPCC‟s Fifth availability, which in turn will affect
glacier melt from HKH region, Assessment Report (2014) the agriculture sector and can play
which contributes up-to 80 percent concluded with medium confidence a role in altering cropping patterns
of the annual flows (Ali et al. 2009). level that mean loss in Himalaya (see Figure 12). In another study by
Scientific evidence shows that glaciers mass change between 2 Immerzeel et al. (2013) show an
these glaciers, which span over percent gain and 29 percent loss to increasing water availability
South Asia, are becoming 2035 and for 2100 loss ranged to throughout the 21st century from
increasingly unpredictable due to 15 to 78 percent under RCP4.512. the catchment areas of Kashmir
climate change (Singh 2011; IPCC However, these projections not yet and eastern Nepal. The decline in
2007b; Briscoe & Qamar 2005; water during mid to late century,
Naithani et al. 2001). There is due to loss of ice/glaciers, will be
scientific disagreement over how supplemented by increase in
these glaciers are being 12
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) precipitation in the region.
transformed particularly in HKH 4.5 is a scenario that includes long-term, global
emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived
region covering Pakistan. For species, and land-use-land-cover in a global 13
The model is applied against the baseline
example, some studies show economic framework. RCP4.5 is close to SRES period of 1995-2004, assuming a hypothetical
B1 scenario of 3°C average temperature increase.
Figure 12: UBC simulated mean monthly flows of Indus River under the baseline (1995-2004) conditions and
under the influence of a hypothetical climate change scenario (CCS)
Source: Saeed et al. (2009)
A major challenge in the region is to increase in temperature under availability to 84 kg per annum
deal with the uncertainty in flows different CO2 levels by 5-20 by 2050 compared to 198 kg
(high water availability) with percent and 6-25 percent in per annum in 2012 (Tariq et al.
adequate storage facilities and arid and semi-arid areas, 2014). However, the impact of
efficient management. This will respectively, which collectively climate change on wheat may
enhance availability of water for contributed 89 percent of vary regionally as 1.5 °C
agriculture, drinking, ecosystem national wheat production in increase in temperature would
and hydro-electricity production. Pakistan (Sultana et. al 2009). improve yield up to 14 percent
Another study project a in Chitral- a mountainous wet
Agriculture and climate change reduction of wheat production semi-arid region in Pakistan
in Pakistan up to 6 percent and 8 percent (Hussain and Mudasser 2007).
Although, share of agriculture using A214 and B215 IPCC
sector in GDP has been declining Rice is the second important
scenarios in arid and semi-arid
overtime, this sector remains a food crop in Pakistan and a
plans, respectively (Iqbal et al.
major source of livelihood and third largest export item
2009b).
economic activity in arid and semi- accounting for 7.7 percent of
arid lands of Pakistan (see Box 8). Rising temperatures and total export (GoP 2014b). Like
This sector is also important due to changing rainfall patterns can wheat crop, different studies
its contribution to national food also reduce per capita wheat also project a reduction in rice
security of 188 million Pakistanis. yield in semi-arid areas to 18
14
percent and 15 percent under
Pakistan‟s agriculture is facing A2: describes a very heterogeneous world of
self-reliance; preservation of local identities; A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios
multiple climatic challenges, some continuously increasing population; regionally towards the end of the this
of which are summarized below: oriented economic development; per capita
century (Iqbal et al. 2009b).
economic growth and technological change
Crop productivity: Wheat, more fragmented and slower
15
B2: describes a world emphasis on local
grown all over the country, is a solutions to economic; social and environmental
staple food for most Pakistanis. sustainability; continuously increasing global
It is observed that wheat population lower than A2; intermediate economic
development; less rapid and more diverse
production would reduce with technological change; more environmental
protection and social equity.
Box 8: Pakistan’s agriculture at a glance
The agriculture sector in Pakistan plays a pivotal role in the national economy and the livelihoods of rural
population. In 2013-14, agriculture sector (including crop, livestock, forestry and fishing sectors)
contributed to about 21 percent of national gross domestic product (GDP). It has declined from 49 percent
in 1951 to 26 percent in 1999. The agriculture sector growth rate experiences high instability mainly due to
its high dependence on irrigated water and its climate-sensitivity.
C ro p s e ct o r:
Wheat and rice are important crops (along with cash crops such as cotton, sugarcane and maize) that
account for 25.6 percent of value addition in agriculture sector and 5.4 percent in GDP (GoP 2014b). In
terms of economic value, wheat (10.3 percent) tops the list, followed by cotton (6.7 percent), sugarcane
(3.4 percent), and rice (3.1 percent).
Li v e s t o c k s e c t o r :
Livestock is important component of agriculture sector which contributes 11.8 percent to GDP with a value
addition of about 55.6 percent in 2013-14 (GoP 2014b). The economic value addition of milk and meat are
highest among other livestock product such as poultry.
Emplo ymen t and liveliho od:
Around 64 percent of Pakistan‟s population is living in rural areas for which agriculture is the main
employer. Overall nearly 45 percent of country‟s labor force, with 30 percent being women, is absorbed in
agriculture sector.
Fa rm t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d m e c h a n i z a t i o n :
The farm mechanization in Pakistan is limited to sowing and harvesting of crops where farm machines are
replacing manual farming practices. Use of new technologies like zero tillage, land leveling, and drip
irrigation, though getting popular but are still limited to orchids, green house farms, and vegetables farms
etc.
Ir r i g a t e d a g r i c u l t u r e :
Most of the Pakistan is under arid and semi-arid climate with low and uncertain rainfall patterns and
therefore, crop production is not possible without irrigation. Almost 90 percent of fresh water supplies from
Indus Basin Irrigation system (IBIS) is being utilized in agriculture production. However, only 75 percent of
total arable land in Pakistan is irrigated.
In s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s :
The 18th amendment to the Constitution of Pakistan in 2010, abolished the concurrent list of federal and
provincial responsibilities. The functions devolved to provinces include agriculture, livestock, water
management and environment. Now under new setup the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture was
devolved and new setup emerged with the name Federal Ministry of National Food Security and Research,
mainly responsible for policy formulation and planning with respect to food grain and research. Pakistan
Agriculture Research Council (PARC) to coordinate and facilitate agricultural research across the country
and to address provincial issues.
Source: GoP 2014

As a result, the reduction in rice productivity, while their effect is current rainfall patterns (Farooqi
production would up to 2 not uniform across all et al. 2005).
percent by 2020 in northern categories of farms because
Land degradation and soil
semi-arid plain of Pakistan different farm configurations
productivity: Land degradation
which contributes 52 percent confront different climatic and
and desertification is a major
share in total national rice socio-economic environments.
threat to agriculture in Pakistan.
production (Iqbal et al. 2009a; It was clearly noted that district
Climate change could increase
Ahmad et al. 2013a,b). specific characteristics do have
the rate of land degradation,
significance in generating Net
This climate change related further hampering soil and
Farm Revenue (NFR) (Saboor,
reduction in the yield would not agricultural productivity
2014).
only be confined to wheat and currently threatening semi-arid
rice but cotton and sugarcane Crop water requirement: and arid agro-ecology (Alam et
production in arid and semi-arid Climate change is projected to al. 2007; Ahmad 2013b).
regions, under changing increase in crop water Increase in rain and intensive
temperature and rainfall requirement. About 5°C flooding would accelerate the
patterns would also reduce increase in temperature is rates of soil erosion, salinity and
(Siddiqui et al. 2010). For expected by the end of 21st water logging in Pakistan (Khan
cotton and sugarcane the loss century due to which water et al. 2012). The situation is
in production up to 2030 would requirement of crops will more worsening by water
be by 13.29 percent to 27.98 increase 1.5 times with respect shortage and droughts that
percent and 13.56 percent and to present levels (Rasul et al. would eventually reduce farm
40.09 percent with the increase 2012). The observed trends in incomes and force farmers and
in temperature of 1°C and 2°C temperature, rainfall, solar landless agricultural labour to
respectively (Siddiqui et al. radiation, wind speed, humidity, migrate (Iqbal et al. 2009a;
2010). etc., during the 1951-2000, Mueller et al. 2014) as shown in
concluded that there is 5 table 9.
Climate change variables are
percent Increase in net irrigation
significant determinants of
water requirement under

Table 9: Key water related climate risks to food system in arid and semi-arid areas of Pakistan
Food System
components Climate related risks Sensitivity Coping Capacity Vulnerability
Crop To cope with this
production situation the farmers
The farmers cannot afford
sensitive to have to purchase Vulnerable to
to install tube wells
timely rainfall GW from large rainfall pattern and
especially in rain-fed areas
and farmers that falling groundwater
where groundwater is deep
unavailability of increases their cost
surface water of production
In canal irrigated areas,

unequal distribution, Productivity / Change in surface
Installation of tube
conveyance losses and profitability is water flows and
wells
institutional arrangements very sensitive falling groundwater
create problems
Topography of area does

Crop
Availability not allow access to surface
diversification Cannot cope with Vulnerable to
water, Most of area relies
and production this situation, unless rainfall pattern
on rainfall, excessive
is affected by some external falling groundwater
erosion of soils reduces
water intervention and erosion
water holding capacity,
availability
Runoff due to topography
mini-dam is
vulnerable to silt
Sensitive to
Flood control deposition,
Floods damage frequency and
system, mini dams, irrigation
infrastructure intensity of
lift irrigation infrastructure is
floods
vulnerable to
flooding
Quality of
Open storage system is Vulnerable to
stored wheat is No coping capacity
affected by untimely rainfall rainfall pattern
affected
In rain-fed area
Drought conditions compel farmers cannot cope
Fodder crops
farmers to sell their with drought Vulnerable to
are sensitive to
livestock that decreases situation except in change in rainfall
Utilization water
their milk and meat some areas where pattern
(Livestock and availability
consumption ground water is
pulses being
affordable
the staple food
Associated with rainfall
commodities) Pulses as food
pattern and reliability
crop are
because pulses being Same Same
sensitive to
important food crops are
timely rainfall
dependent upon rain
Rural to Urban Those who cannot
Rain-fed areas
Low water availability > migration that migrate are
Access are sensitive to
Low production > Poverty increases household vulnerable to
rainfall
off-farm income poverty trap
Source: Salik et al 2006; revision by author in 2015

decreased the quality and quantity partially or completely almost 515
Health and climate change of water for drinking, sanitation, and health units representing 5 percent
related risks in Pakistan daily cleanliness causing diarrheal of total facilities located in flood-
Globally a number of studies diseases. Further, the transmission affected districts mostly situated in
provide indication for the effects of of vector-borne diseases like rural areas of the provinces (ADB &
climate change on health (IPCC malaria, dengue, etc. has a very WB 2010) estimated damage cost
2014; Haines et al. 2006; Kleef et al. strong association with increased around $50 million (NDMA 2010).
2010). Projected increase in heat or temperature, humidity and vapour Further, flood affected areas face a
cold waves, spatial and temporal pressure (as shown in Box 9). severe shortage of doctors, para-
variations in monsoon occurrence medical staff and lady health
and increasing humidity levels due Climate extremes in semi-arid
workers and increased diarrheal
to climate change are most likely to plains of Pakistan, like floods and
disease, infant mortality rate, and
increase human health risks in heavy rainfall, are damaging health
maternal health (Malik et al. 2012).
Pakistan (Malik et al. 2012). infrastructure and services in
Similarly, climate change has also Pakistan. Floods in Sindh and
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa destroyed
Box 9: Climate variability and transmission of dengue virus in

semi-arid plains of Pakistan
Climate change and dengue virus transmission has a very strong association with increased temperature,
humidity and vapor pressure (Patz et al. 1998). Climate change is gradually increasing the land area that is
climatically suitable to the devastating transmission of dengue fever (Hales et al. 2002). The relevance of
climate change to dengue fever in Pakistan‟s current scenario is quite obvious as the monsoon stayed long
resulting in humid, comparatively warm weather and less sunshine that provided an ideal space for
breeding of Aedes Aegypti mosquito a vector of dengue virus. The heavy rains that causing flooding in
urban areas supported the presence of consistently stagnant water (like 2010, 2011 and 2014 floods in
Lahore) additionally favored dengue.
Dengue fever extremely affected the people in 100 countries worldwide, including Southeast Asian
Countries. The dengue fever caused 22,000 annual deaths apart millions of people affected by this
epidemic disease (Phillips, 2008). History of dengue fever in Pakistan is not that old as it emerged in 1994
and then in 2005 in mega city Karachi reported 4,500 cases (Rai and Khan 2007; Mukhtar et al. 2012).
Then it spread to other two mega cities located in semi-arid areas i.e. Lahore and Faisalabad till 2010. The
total dengue fever cases reported in Punjab province was 20,864 and it exceeded up to 17,256 alone in
Lahore in 2011. This resulted to total 357 deaths in Punjab including 279 deaths in Lahore (Qureshi et al.
2014).

example, 10,407 school destroyed due to low level of healthcare
2.2 Climate risks and during 2010 mega flood in Pakistan facilities in Pakistan as depicted
(ADB & WB 2010), thus affecting from the low public health
development school drop-outs (Murtaza et al expenditure (see section 1.2).
2012). Improvements in status and Fortunately, a number of new
quality of Pakistan‟s education initiatives are planned under Vision
This section comprises an
standards are the keys to enhance 2025, like the Health Information
assessment of the link between
climate resilience. However, and Disease Surveillance System
Pakistan‟s development plans (as
existing future plan of the and Micro-Health Insurance
reviewed in the section A1) vis-a‟-
government to improve education schemes (GoP 2014c). It remains
vis climate risk (section A2) and
sector includes increase in public to be seen whether the focus of
how positive and negative
expenditure in education from 2 such interventions is on the most
relationships/link will affect Bowen‟s
percent to 4 percent of GDP by vulnerable districts where adaptive
five categories reflecting the
2018 and significantly invest in capacity is low.
development scenarios of Pakistan.
university‟s research and
Human capital development that may help improve Natural capital
adaptive capacity and accumulate Natural capital has been recognised
Human capital is defined as „the human capital in the country (GoP as one of the key factors
capacity of the population to drive 2014c). determining climate-resilient
economic growth through a set of
Better health can itself contribute to economic growth. Natural capital
skills and characteristics‟ (GoP &
resilience and adaptive capacity of can be defined as the stock of
UNDP 2014). Two areas of human
people (Bowen et al. 2012). Climate natural resources which provides
capital are of particular interest for
change impacts human health in goods and services now and in the
Pakistan with reference to climate
multiple ways. For example, climate future to sustain human well-being
change: education and health. Both
change is likely to increase diarrheal (Brand 2008; Neumayer 1998).
are keys to determine the status of
diseases by up to 5 percent by Bowen et al. (2012) argue that
poverty, migration patterns and
2020 in countries having per capita healthy ecosystems can contribute
resilience to climate risks (Bowen et
income below $6,000 (WB 2010). to climate-adaptation as natural
al. 2012) especially for marginalised
This tendency is alarming for India buffers against extreme events (e.g.
communities. Therefore, the
and Pakistan, where extreme mangrove forest protection in
countries with low Human
rainfall and flooding events are coastal areas). Climate change is
Development Index (HDI) generally
associated with diarrheal outbreak likely to stress human-nature
suffer from poverty and are
and malaria prevalence (IPCC 2014) relations particularly in semi-arid
vulnerable to climate change
reducing overall human productivity areas (Bizikova et al. 2014). Some
(Medalye 2012). In the case of
and triggering both temporary and of the impacts of climate change on
Pakistan, relatively high poverty
permanent migration (WB 2005a). natural capital are outlined to be
rates are found in districts that have
There is also a significant imbalances in ecosystems, glacial
high frequency and magnitude of
correlation between nutrition and melt, loss of forest cover,
natural disasters (Naveed & Ali
climate change. In Pakistan, the degradation in land systems, and
2012; Khan & Salman, 2012). Such
number of malnourished people are losses in agricultural production.
districts are also exposed to
potential health risks due to climate increasing that there was only 29.5 Water and land are the two
change (Malik et al. 2012). million in 1990-92 which were important natural assets among
malnourished and this number other for Pakistan as these are
Education is a key to enhance the grown up to 40.8 million in 2006-08 closely linked with climate resilient
resilience of population both in pre reported by FAO report on „State of economic development. Pakistan‟s
and post-disaster situations Food Insecurity in the World‟ in limited water resources are under
(Striessnig et al. 2013). Better 2011. Similar situations is revealed stress due to many factors,
education usually implies better by Pakistan National Nutrition including inefficient irrigation
access to information essential for Survey (NNS) also in 2011, that practices, rapidly growing cities and
informed decision making during around 60 percent of Pakistan‟s industries (Briscoe & Qamar 2005)
floods and droughts (Wamsler et al. total population is food insecure, and expanding water usage for
2012). indicating significant decline in the drinking, sanitation and health.
Floods in Pakistan negatively nutritional status of the people of Similarly, a substantial portion (38
impacts education mainly in two the country over the past decades. percent) of the cultivated land of the
way: expose children to disaster- The increase in frequency and country is suffering from various
related health risks and damage intensity of climate extremes may forms of degradation.
educational infrastructure, for place additional population at risk
While the government is well aware Physical capital and thresholds, paved roads corrode,
of the vitality of natural resources causing rapid degradation even
for socio-economic development infrastructure under normal or light traffic loads
and some policy documents are Climate resilient infrastructure will (see table 11). Recent floods of
available on protection and become essential in coming 2010, 2011, and 2014 damaged the
preservation of natural resources decades for adapting to climate roads, bridges and rail tracks
particularly water and forests (see change. Therefore, costs for new extensively in KP, Punjab and Sindh.
section 1.1) but implementation is infrastructure development would Similarly, natural disaster also plays
questionable. One of the biggest not only increase but also require havoc with the energy infrastructure
impediments in the governance of sophisticated decision-making (see table9); whereby overtime
natural resources is rigid and processes, such as new increase in the average temperature
hierarchical structures with non- construction codes would be has reduced the efficiency of
inclusive policies and institutions. required to know where to build energy production system.
Internationally, strategies that and how to design flood protection
promote climate-resilient economic infrastructure to prevent climate Constantly, high temperature also
development in natural resources change induced natural disaster impacts the cooling process of
sector are required to be (Bowen et al. 2012). thermal power plants (Khan et al.
responsive, proactive and flexible 2011). A large part of energy in
but in Pakistan‟s case situation is Pakistan‟s existing physical Pakistan is generated through
rather bleak. infrastructure is in poor state when thermal source and it contributed
compared to international 8,300 megawatt of energy to the
standards. For example, roads are national grid in 2012 (ICCI 2012).
sensitive to extreme heat and heavy
rainfall. Above certain temperature
Table 10: Physical damages to power sector (2010 floods)
Asset type Completely damaged Partially damaged

Grid Station (no.) 1 31
Transmission lines (km) 65 96
Distribution lines (km) 2,799 434
Distribution transformers (no.) 5,299 340
Customer connections (no.) 106, 299 27,421
Equipment (PKR million) 610 -
Hydro plants - 91
Thermal plants - 1
Source: World Bank (2010)

Table 11: Key climate risks to infrastructure in Pakistan
Sector Climate Impact Possible Implication for Infrastructure
T r a n s por t
Intense Precipitation Floods Risk to Roads

Wetter Winter and Dryer Increase Scour of Bridges.
Roads
Summer Increase Instability of Embankment.
Higher Temperature Increase Damages to Road Surfaces.
Intense Precipitation Floods Risk to Rail Lines.
Wetter Winter and Dryer Increase Scour of Bridges.
Rail
Summer Increase Instability of Embankment.
Higher Temperature Increase Rail Buckling.
Intense Precipitation Floods Risks to Air Ports.
Airports
Higher Temperature Lift of Aircrafts Reduced.
Water
Changing Precipitation Reduce Security of Supply.

Water Supply Patterns and Droughts Increase Risk of Fluvial Flooding to Water Supply
Infrastructure Intense Precipitation Infrastructure.
Higher Temperature Water Treatment Process Affected.
En e r g y
Intense Precipitation
Electricity
Higher Temperature Reduce Capacity of Network
Transmission
Surface Water, Tidal and Floods Risk to Substations
and
Fluvial Flooding Storm Damages to Overhead Power Lines
Distribution
High Winds
Renewable Increase Risk of Storm and
Reduce Efficiency and Increase Storm Damages
Wind Energy Reduce Wind
Fuel
Sea Level Rise and Storm Flood Risk to Storage and Fuel Processing
Processing
Surges Facilities
and Storages
Intense Precipitation Flood Risk to Fossil Fuel and Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuel and
Higher Temperature Plants.
Nuclear
Shoreline Erosion Reduce Efficiency
Generation
Recue Summer Rain Fall Reduce Available Water for Cooling
IC T
Location/density of wireless masts may become

Higher Temperature sub-optimal as wireless transmission is
Increase Risk of dependent on temperature.
Wireless Subsidence Reduced stability of foundations and tower
Infrastructure Increase Risk of structures
Storminess Increased damage to above ground transmission
Intense Precipitation infrastructure.
Possible reduced quality of wireless service
Low-lying infrastructure, access holes and
Copper and Increased risk of flooding
underground facilities at risk.
Fiber Increased erosion and/or
Transport infrastructure (roads/bridges) affected
Optic cables flooding.
exposing cables and trunk routes.
Source: Climate Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for Changing Climate HM Government (2011).

Governance, institutions After amendment in the industry in Pakistan, affect 49
Constitution of Pakistan in 2010, million textile-related labour force,
and access to finance the decentralization process has reduce exports, and may reduce
Adaptation to climate change devolved 17 federal level ministries textile sector growth and
provides opportunity for social to the provinces. It has granted an investment rate (Banuri 1998). The
reforms as well as improved unprecedented autonomy to the cotton belt of Pakistan, spreading
governance (Pelling 2011). provinces to set and negotiate around 1,200 km along the Indus
Institutions matter greatly under development assistance agenda River faced extreme damages in
multi-level governance structure for and seek international funding. The 2010 flooding (Thorpe & Fennell
economic development. In this Article 167(4) of the Constitution (of 2012). Almost 75 percent of the
regard the role and design of „good‟ 1973) enables provinces to raise financial losses were incurred due
institutions that account for local domestic or international to destruction of cotton crop.
situation as well as future funds/loans either autonomously or Studies show that nearly 20
challenges of governance are through consultation with the inter- percent of the crop land was
necessary for adaptive capacity of provincial Council of Common completely washed away with the
climate change (Bowen et al. 2012; Interest (CCI) and the National flood water (Thorpe & Fennell 2012).
Engle 2011). While framing effective Economic Council (NEC) or give Loss of production caused the
adaptation options, four key guarantees on the security of the
textile industries to rely on the
questions need to be consider that: Provincial Consolidated Funds. foreign import of cotton to keep
how the adaptive capacity be However, how would provinces
their production process smooth. A
improved based on existing exercise this power and what
total of 2 million bales of cotton
institutional and stakeholder‟s options they prefer, it remains
were destroyed which also affected
capacity; what institutions and highly ambiguous and complex. In
the competitiveness of textile
stakeholders are important (i.e., the the context of climate finance, this exports of Pakistan on the global
local to national distribution of is, undoubtedly, the most pressing
level (WB 2010).
political power) in facilitating issue that would hinder access to
adaptive capacity in to adaptive the international climate finance Despite the increased impact of
actions; what are the institutional market and domestic private climate change on private sector,
barriers to control processes of market. there remain enormous challenges
adaptations (Pelling 2011) and obstructing active role in
Global climate finance, on the other
finally what are the actual financing autonomous as well as planned
hand, emerges as a major incentive
needs of adaptation institutions adaptation options. The role of
to take on adaptation efforts at the
(Bowen et al. 2012). private sector has not been
local and national levels.
explicitly taken up by the research,
While assessing the possible Unfortunately, it falls short of global
policy and decision making
adaptation options in developing community‟s expectations due to
community in Pakistan. Therefore,
countries, some of the most critical limited funding, bureaucratic
little literature is available on the role
issues include availability of credible structure and inherited weak
of chambers of commerce, civil
scientific information required to institutional capacities in developing
society organizations and
policy makers, financial resources, countries. (Bird and Glennie 2011).
community based organizations in
and institutional capacity and awareness raising and mobilizing
autonomy (Bowen et al. 2012).
Effective markets
financial and human resources
These factors impact the Markets in developing countries are required for resilient economic
governance system through policy sensitive to climate change due to development in the country.
and administrative capacity that their dependence on primary
when taken together enable production and ecosystem services.
governments to successfully For example, any decline in cotton
implement climate change policy production due to climate change
and actions. would negatively impact textile

Figure 13: Loss of cotton production following the floods in 2010.
Million Bales,
2011-12, 13.6
Million Bales, Million Bales,
2012-13, 13.03 Million Bales,
2009-10, 12.91
2013-14, 12.77
Million Bales
Million Bales,
2010-11, 11.46
Source: GoP 2014b // Targeted production of crop was 14.1 million bales for 2010-11 which barely reached to 11.46 million bales (GoP 2014b).
focuses on each development lacks a comprehensive assessment

2.3 The Vision 2025 objective from Vision 2025, of climate change related impacts
explaining how climate change will and vulnerabilities not only on the
and climate risks impede or regress the progress of key economic sectors but also at
each goal and if each goal is made national and sub-national scale to
climate sensitive in turn can change identify possible adaptation actions.
The Vision 2025 proposed by the
climate vulnerability, the table will Particularly, the arid and semi-arid
government, aims to serve five
also briefly explain the policy areas in Pakistan, on which PRISE
functions, i.e. developing a shared
implications of each development project is focusing, provides
vision by identifying common
goal (Table 12). opportunity for policy reforms as
interests and goals that people can
well as its improved implementation
work together, political stability and
continuity of polices through 2.4 Conclusion processes. While identifying these
possible adaptation options, the
strengthening of democratic
selection of key institutions and
institutions, peace and security,
Pakistan has continuously facing stakeholders and the role of private
establishing rule of law and
climate risks in arid and semi-arid sector, at this point of time remains
promoting social justice. These
areas, as evident from both highly ambiguous and challenging
main goals are narrowed down to
observed and projected climate both at provincial and federal level.
major development goals that are
data analysis, reviewed in the
the main contributors to sustainable
section. However, Pakistan still
growth. Below is a table that

Table 12: Key government development goals and climate change impacts
Development How the goal might
Goal: How climate change may change climate Implications for
No. Vision 2025 affect the goal vulnerability? development policy
Natural disasters such as
A climate resilient approach Improve health by
floods and droughts, will
towards building human and ensuring immunizations,
affect food security, health,
Putting people social capital such as access to improved
and employment, further
first- Developing education means more sanitation and increase
1. marginalize minorities and
human and skilled work force, better literacy rate by
women especially. (WB 2010;
social capital adaptation to hazards such increasing government
Sarr 2012; Kemp 2007; ADB
as improved health, and spending on the
& WB 2010; Drabo & Mbaye
overall better productivity. education sector.
2011)
The impacts of climate
change will regress or reverse
development efforts, for
Including women, and
Achieving example if industrial and Increase Foreign Direct
educating the rural sector
sustained agriculture sector are not Investment, increase tax
about coping mechanisms
2. indigenous equipped to adapt to climate to GDP ratio to increase
and green growth will create
growth and change it will impact overall budget for public
more inclusive and
inclusive growth GDP. Unemployment will spending
sustainable growth.
exacerbate poverty. (Ahmad
et al 2013a,b), (Juneja 2009;
ODI 2013)
The use of non-renewable
fossil fuels is heavily
increasing GHG emissions,
floods have played a large role Building of hydro power
in damaging power stations plants can help reach
Manage energy
and destroying crops, causing energy security goals
demands by promoting
an overall decrease in crop through clean energy
Energy, water use of energy efficient
yield. Mismanagement of projects. Management of
3. and Food products, increasing
water, contamination, water resources will mean
security power generation and
salination and decertification more efficient use for
storage capacity of
of water sources does not irrigation, clean water and
water.
only affect agriculture but reduced risk of water
health leading to water borne related diseases.
diseases. (Planning
Commission 2010; GoP
2010a).
Through climate conscious More Public-Private
restructuring, policy regime partnerships, by
Private sector cannot
and training to help the providing training and
participate in its development,
private sector adapt will technical expertise to
Private sector because there are certain
4. improve outputs and the private sector to
led Growth factors that inhibit it, such as
efficiency attracting private help them towards
energy deficit, social safety
sector investment that will building climate
nets and security. (WB 2010)
be the main driver of resilience in the private
growth. sector
Through innovation,
Markets and businesses will technology and skill to cope
Providing access of
Developing A be disrupted by climate and mitigate climate change
information and the
competitive change, reducing yield and productivity will improve, for
internet services,
knowledge productivity and causing the e.g. farmers with the help of
5. Protection and
Economy economy to lose competitive bio-technology utilize seeds
maintenance of natural
through Value advantage in the international that are more drought
resources to attract
Addition market. (Aldy and Stavins resistant will improve crop
tourists.
2012) yield, industries properly
trained to manage waste will
sustain the ecosystem.
Building rail road networks, Bringing in environment

and transportation lines will friendly and fuel efficient
Modernizing
produce poor performance as Climate resilient transport transport system
Transportation
high temperatures can scour will lower carbon emissions, requires assistance in
Infrastructure bridges and damage road fuel consumption and transitioning the existing
6
and greater surfaces, floods will waste improve regional transport sector to
Regional goods being transported and connectivity. avoid loss of
Connectivity destroy railway lines. (Bowen employment and total
et al 2012) output.
Social and ecological systems Strengthening institutions
Need to allocate funds
such as natural ecosystems, and governance by
for climate finance and
coastal and urban areas show exercising the 18th
securing aid from
Governance, a complex ecological and amendment correctly to
international
institutional socio-political dynamics such enable provinces to address
organizations as
reform and as politicizing of water crisis their provincial issues more
7. developing countries
modernization and lack of government of effectively for example
will have difficulty
of the public government subsidies to help building dams, and
arranging funds, need
sector provide security of life and providing social protection
for synergy between
property. (Lemos and Eakin, and climate finance to
center and federating
2006; Bowen et al. 2012; vulnerable sector of the
units.
IPCC 2014) economy

3. Implications for adaptation policy
Adaptation16 to climate change is factors such as health, poverty

crucial for sustainability and the reduction, urbanisation and 3.1 Climate change
successful delivery of development economic development, as
interventions (CDKN 2013a). discussed in previous sections. policy initiatives and
Adaptation is collectively concerned
with responses to both the adverse
Mitigation and adaptation strategies institutions
involve significant benefits,
and positive effects of climate
synergies and trade-offs (IPCC,
change. It requires adjustments that Adaptation that has both early and
2014): Cobenefits such as
may be „passive, reactive or long term benefits is the most
promotion of sustainable agriculture
anticipatory‟ which may respond to, reliable path to a more resilient
and forestry, synergies such as
and anticipate, the consequences economy, society and natural
sustainable business development,
associated with climate change. An environment, especially in the
resilience in supply chains (see
adaptive approach hence, rapidly deteriorating semi-arid lands
WP.3) and disaster risk reduction
manages risk as it recognises that of Pakistan.
and tradeoffs such as the side-
future climate changes will occur
effects of energy use. These effects A number of efforts have been
and must be accommodated within
require careful consideration over made to incorporate adaptive
policy and practice (Fankhauser
climate change policy formulation. strategies starting in the early
2009; IPCC 2013).
This section traces Pakistan‟s 2000s, with the late realization of
Dynamic understandings of the adverse effects of climate
climate change adaptation
adaptation have increased the change. The 2003 Initial National
initiatives and identifies priority
utilisation of integrated17 mitigation, Communication on Climate Change
adaptation measures which need
that is, the attempts to deal with report published by the Ministry of
immediate and long term
the causes of climate change and Environment was the first
implementation. This section is
adaptation responses towards government effort to envisage
structured as follows:
climate change (Carter et al 1994). adaptive responses to climate
These create vulnerabilities18 that Section 1 describes policy initiatives change. The report laid out
induce new nuances in coping taken by the Government of
research proposals for adaptation
mechanisms with the increasing Pakistan in mainstreaming climate
in all sectors including water,
realisation of the way climate change adaptation leading to the agriculture, forestry, coastal zones,
change impacts on socio-economic formation of the first National
livestock, biodiversity, energy,
Climate Change Policy (NCCP) in technology and finance. In the
2013. It also reviews the NCCP
16
In practice, adaptation is a „slippery‟ concept‟,
same year, the government based
2013 adaptive responses
subject to a variety of applications (LEAD 2008). Global Change Impact Studies
Terms such as „adaptive strategy‟ have been recommended in key vulnerable Centre (GCISC) was established to
used to identify the impacts on economic sectors, including agriculture, health
production, whilst „adaptive management‟ the conduct research on adaptive
and water. actions.
capacity to respond swiftly and flexibly to sudden
developments, has incorporated the crucial need
Section 2 describes the key
for risk management into the equation (IPCC, In 2005, the Prime Minister‟s
1994). planning and implementation efforts
17
Committee on Climate Change
The integrated approach is considered a more operating in the public sector and
comprehensive treatment of climate change (PMCCC) was formed for capacity
affects than impact or interaction approaches. “It
by private actors.
building, keeping a track of past
seeks to encompass the hierarchies of
interactions that occur within sectors,
Section 3 lists the current gaps in and future climate trends and
interactions between sectors and feedbacks adaptation policy and practice and analysing the socio-economic
including adaptation.” (IPCC, 1994) identifies priority adaptation factors impacting development. The
18
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is
susceptible to harm due to exposure to a measures both in the public and committee consisted of Minister for
perturbation or stress and the ability (or lack private sector that will merit for Environment19, Minister
thereof) of the exposure unit to cope, recover, or
detailed analysis and further
fundamentally adapt (become a new system or
become extinct) (UNDP 2005, p.250). The research in the later stages of
19
vulnerability of a system is influenced by the PRISE project. The Ministry of Environment is no longer
adaptive capacity of its people and institutions, or functioning. The current government however,
their ability to take advantage of opportunities or recently appointed a new Minister for
to cope with the consequences of potential Environment and Climate Change to “bring in
dangers (IPCC, 2001). foreign investment for mitigation and adaptability
efforts” (Business Recorder 2015).
Northwest Pakistan affected by heavy floods: a girl washing
dishes in rainwater in front of a flood affected house.
© UNICEF/ZAK
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
56 56 Pakistan:
Pakistan: Country
Country situation
situation assessment
assessment
for National Food, Agriculture and change poses to the country‟s challenges and key adaptation
Livestock, Minister for Science and development, the document places measures in order to cope with the
Technology, Minister for Water and special concern for pro-poor adverse effects of changing climate.
Power, Minister of State for adaptation, presenting a range of
Environment, Deputy Chairman of policy measures. With the Water sector
the Planning Commission and overarching goal of integrating Water is a major driver of economic
Special Advisor to the Prime poverty-climate change nexus and and social development, therefore,
Minister. GCISC was the gender perspectives into economic water issues should not be
Secretariat of the Committee. policies and plans, the Government considered in isolation. NCCP puts
of Pakistan aims to strengthen a lot of emphasis on integrated
In 2008, the Planning Commission water resource management in the
community level climate change
(PC) formed a Task Force on country. The key measure in this
adaptation, develop gender
Climate Change (TFCC), with the regard include protection of
sensitive criteria and indicators
key task to contribute to the groundwater through management
related to adaptation and
formulation of a climate change and technical measures such as
vulnerability, improve access of
policy. The Task Force issued a regulatory frameworks, water
poor communities to relevant
comprehensive report in 2010 that licensing, artificial recharge, slow
technologies and ensure the
outlined possible measures for both action dams and rational ground
development of population
mitigation and adaptation in the water exploitation by avoiding
management strategies (NCCP
following key sectors that are excessive pumping. Other efficient
2013,). The research base of this
affected by climate change: energy, water management practices
policy document was not very
agriculture and livestock, forestry, include recycling waste water,
sound; so were the adaptation
coastal areas and water resources. protection of catchment areas,
related doses suggested in it.
It also made recommendations for preservation of ecology of dry river
strengthening the organizational The overall goal of the NCCP is to reaches and protection against sea
structure, highlighting inadequate „mainstream‟ climate change into water intrusion in the Indus delta.
institutional and technical capacity the vulnerable economic and social
and the meager financial resources sectors in order to achieve climate Given that the Indus basin is the
available in addressing climate resilient development along with largest contiguous irrigation
change issues, underscoring the streamlining the development network in the world and agriculture
need for international cooperation objectives with development plans. sector is heavily dependent on it,
and support (Planning Commission But the current government‟s long- the challenges posed by climate
2010). term development plan, Vision change call for efficiency in irrigation
2025, which although addresses systems. In this regard, water
As previously mentioned in conservation measures, such as
climate resilience by recognizing the
Section1, the Framework of reduction in irrigation system losses
link between sustainability and
Economic Growth (FEG) was and provision of incentives for
inclusive growth (GoP 2014c), has
introduced by the Planning adoption of efficient irrigation
yet to publish its 11 th Five Year Plan
Commission in 2011. The techniques (such as drip irrigation,
(2013-18) for implementation,
Framework addressed climate sprinkler irrigation and water
which was to be finalized back in
resilient development only indirectly, harvesting) need to be encouraged.
2013 (Associated Press of Pakistan
for instance, through its statement
2013). Construction of reservoirs also
of objectives on achieving urban
management. The Framework comes at the highest government
never received a budget priority to enhance water security.
endorsement by the Ministry of Adaptive responses in Currently, the country has very little
Finance hence being reduced to a key sectors identified by storage capacity20. Reservoir
shelved document. capacity is also very low in relation
NCCP 2013 to average annual flows in IRS 142
The above mentioned efforts, MAF21.
Keeping in view the vulnerabilities
however, prepared the ground for
and challenges faced by the The policy document proposes that
consolidation of the National
country due to climate change, this new dams are crucial for power
Climate Change Policy (NCCP)
section briefly presents adaptation generation and to fulfill the
published in 2013 which provided
measures focusing on three sectors
the government and private sector
namely water, agriculture and
with a keystone policy document to
health. As mentioned in section 3.1, 20
Only 150 cubic meters per capita as compared
adhere to for all climate change
our main source of information for to 2200, 5000 and 6000 cubic meter per capita
related activities. Emphasizing on in China, Australia and United States respectively
this section is NCCP 2013 which
the vulnerabilities that climate (Briscoe & Qamar 2005).
presents a holistic view of 21
For the period 1976-2003
country‟s expanding electricity order to make reliable projections of induced and water borne diseases
needs. Construction of dams is also climatic parameters and river flows like malaria, dengue and typhoid.
vital for improvements in agricultural at intra/inter-annual as well as Reducing these climate related
production, flood risk reduction, climate time scale. For achieving health risks, particularly among the
and for improved drought this goal, state of the art techniques poor households, will require
management under climate change such as development of simulation addressing the underlying causes
conditions. Besides the models for the assessment of of vulnerability, particularly poverty.
construction of new dams, other climate change impacts on physical,
According to the NCCP 2013, the
measures such as upgrading chemical, biological and financial
first and foremost measure in this
existing irrigation infrastructure and aspects of agriculture production
regard should be the assessment
harnessing hill torrent potential and systems in various agro-ecological
of health vulnerabilities of
measures to enhance the life of zones should be employed.
communities in areas most likely to
existing storages are also Promotion of targeted research on
be affected by the adverse impacts
indispensable. adoption of sustainable land
of climate change as well as
management practices, along with
Another very important aspect is building their capacities to reduce
enhancement of the capacity of
appropriate institutional and these vulnerabilities. Moreover,
farming communities to take
legislative support which should be appropriate measures to address
advantage of scientific findings of
extended to ensuring water storage, health-related climate change
the relevant research organization
conservation and efficient issues should be incorporated in
should also be ensured.
management in the country. national health plans. Adaptive
Moreover, in recent years the From technological perspective, the responses to climate change
country has witnessed heavy efficiency of various agricultural effects on health should include
precipitation events which have inputs, in particular the irrigation seasonal and inter-annual climate
caused a lot of damages both in water, should be enhanced to forecasting to increase the capacity
terms of economic and human improve crop productivity per unit for preparedness in the form of
losses. Therefore, NCCP calls for of land and per unit of water. early warning and hazard
priority actions to cope with the Moreover, the energy efficient farm preparedness at all levels of
adverse effects of such events mechanisms and modern governance. Consequently,
including employment of the latest techniques such as laser land development of climate change
early warning systems to monitor leveling, solar water desalination, scenarios is pivotal for
weather patterns as well as water drip and sprinkle irrigation, crop understanding the dynamics of
flows and provide advance diversification, and proper cropping climate change in the area, which
warnings about potential flooding, patterns, needs to be encouraged. requires identification of adaptation
better coordination between the There is also a need for developing needs by researchers on different
federal and provincial institutions a proper risk management system patterns of disease epidemics, their
and flood plain management along including crop insurance to region wise assessment and their
the flood corridor to ensure safeguard against crop failures due epidemic trends.
minimum damage. to weather related extreme events.
Raising awareness in terms of
Similarly, in order to provide
Agriculture sector Considering information, education, sensitisation
effective and timely information of
the importance of agriculture sector climate/weather predictions to and training of health personnel and
in Pakistan‟s economy, the first and farming communities, improvement public about climate change related
foremost step identified by NCCP health issues can play a major role
in the extension system and
(2013) is to invest in research for in combating negative impacts of
enhancement in the use of media
developing new varieties of crops climate change specifically in health
needs should be ensured. In order
which are high yielding, less sector. Moreover, health facilities in
to reduce the risk of crop failure,
vulnerable to extreme weather general, and preventive measures
there is a need to encourage
events (such as and resources in particular such as
farmers, particularly in rain-fed
heat stress, droughts, heavy rainfall, areas, to plant heat and drought vaccines, good quality medication
heat and cold waves etc.), and less resistant crops varieties. and clean drinking water should be
prone to insects and pests. made available to the general public
Additionally, as the 2014 Work Health sector easily and cost effectively during
Programme, Action 4 recommends, Extreme events result in casualties, the times of extreme climate events.
research capacity of relevant injuries, and other health
organizations needs to be built in implications such as climate

Box 10: IISD 2013 adaptation priorities
• The need for a clear strategy that would mainstream adaptation actions into existing policies and plans
both at national and sector levels. This would also help promote a „culture‟ whereby climate change is
embedded in everyday decision making (IISD 2013).
• Enabling good governance by establishing national and provincial implementation entities for the
effective management and deliverance of adaptation projects. These National Implementation Entities
(NIE‟s) would also increase the capacity to access available funds including the national budget and
international funds such as the Adaptation Fund.
• Strengthening national and provincial institutions for mainstreaming climate change adaptation across
government such as strengthening inter-departmental coordination, stakeholder engagement and
provincial coordination. Institutional strengthening requires establishing Climate Change cells at sector,
national and provincial levels and Climate Change Commissions were suggested for coordinating
climate change activities.
• A robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system is required that would help the Government of
Pakistan to test the validity, costs and benefits of adaptation actions and would also help meet funders‟
requirements of demonstrating how their investments are helping in achieving adaptation goals.
Insights can be gained from National Adaptation Programmes of Action by LDC‟s and reviews of
progress on M&E for adaptation by UNFCCC.
• A strategy is required for identifying and filling the gaps in climate risk research and for developing
possible adaptation actions via technical capacity building of research and academic institutions.
Adaptation to climate change could be streamlined in existing research facilities and universities like
Pakistan Agricultural Research Council and COMSATS Institute of Information Technology‟s Centre for
Climate Research and Development.
• Although initiatives such as the DFID funded „ Climate Leadership for Effective Adaptation and
Resilience‟ are being carried out, greater awareness of climate change amongst the general public is
pivotal for implementation of adaptation actions requiring behavioral changes amongst individuals.
Source: IISD 2013
a detailed action plan based on Strategy (2010) by the previous

3.2 NCCP 2013 NCCP recommendations (Box 10). PPP government which was called
the „new green agenda‟, geared
planning and The Ministry of Environment in 2011
towards sustainable economic
also published an important
growth (Business Recorder 2013).
implementation National Economic and
Environmental Development Study Together, the above mentioned
efforts (NEEDS) co-written with gaps identified in the IISD review
Sustainable Development Policy (2013) and other relevant literature
Institute (SDPI) and LEAD Pakistan, set the groundwork for Pakistani
To set the groundwork for NCCP under which an adaptation experts and stakeholders in
implementation, the International assessment was carried out in mapping out a national level Work
Institute for Sustainable priority sectors including water, Programme for Climate Change
Development (IISD) and the Energy agriculture, forestry energy and Adaptation and Mitigation in
Research Centre of the Netherlands disaster risk management research Pakistan: Priority Actions (CCD
jointly researched and provided the and expert group consultation. The 2014). The Work Programme,
Government of Pakistan and other study also listed the projected developed by the Climate Change
key stakeholders with a country costs of adaptation measures and Division and the Cabinet Secretariat,
situation analysis on priority major financing options available for is a rigorous effort which provides a
adaptation actions (CDKN 2013b). climate change related activities in comprehensive Readiness
The report specified the roles, Pakistan (NEEDS 2011). It was later Framework and Terms of
responsibilities, timelines and built upon to produce a draft Reference (ToRs) for achieving the
resources necessary for generating National Sustainable Development priorities and desired outcomes for
adaptation and mitigation. The out via provincial institutions and 2015) and the Asian Development
ToRs identify ten short-term departments and how financial Bank (ADB) funded Vulnerability to
programme‟s for priority adaptation support will be mobilised to Climate Change Adaptation
and mitigation activities for implement the Framework. Strategies and Layers of Resilience
Government of Pakistan, identifying (2011-12) project that provides
Progress on NCCP 2013
the action, explaining the rationale scientific-based pro-poor solutions
implementation so far remains
behind the required action and to rural agriculture for developing
frugal. In theory, the NCCP is to be
setting out the proponents of the climate resilience (Adaptation
undertaken by the federal ministries,
action and the expected outcomes. Partnership 2011), focus on
provincial governments, private
The ToR‟s are developed to fill the tackling semi-arid region specific
sector, civil society, research
major gaps identified, including the issues.
institutions and universities under
need for a stronger federal
various broader development Engagement in research and
government role in planning and
programmes. The federal development by NGO‟s, INGO‟s
coordinating with provincial
government does retain autonomy and think tanks like CERP, SDPI
governments and ministries,
over planning, coordination and and LEAD however, has been
building capacity and increasing
facilitation of long, medium and substantial. Since initiatives started
research on climate change in 2002, research programmes like
short term adaptation strategies.
adaptation (CCD 2014; NCCP
But, a devolved governance the Pakistan Environment
2013). th
structure vis-a‟-vis the 18 Programme (PEP) have actively
Following the inception of the Work Amendment means that involved a wide range of
Programme, the Government of implementation ultimately boils stakeholders including the civil
Pakistan has envisaged a new down to the relevant ministries, society, media, legal community
Framework for Implementation of provincial governments and district and the educational sector, in order
Climate Change Policy (2014) for offices. to create synergies between the
NCCP 2013 and Work Programme public sector, international and
Another major obstacle is the lack
implementation. The recently- regional institutions such as
of funds available to the relevant
launched document focuses on ASIANIC, IUCN and UN and to
ministries (see Box 11). On the
both mitigation and adaptation enable open and informed debate
whole, current adaptation actions
efforts (2014-2030); outlining about key development issues
also remain marginal with only 24
appropriate actions for disaster regarding environmental
Clean Development Mechanism
preparedness, capacity building governance and long-term capacity
(CDM 2015) projects22 underway in
and institutional strengthening, building. In the formulation of
collaboration with UNFCCC (CCD
hence addressing some of the NCCP itself, the final review took on
2014).
above mentioned challenges. It board both private and public
proposes an implementation The „policy-implementation‟ gap is stakeholder consensus.
schedule for each identified area, to some extent, being filled by
The absence of business
that is divided into four time frames; privately funded projects. Both
community from the process has
priority actions (to be implemented government and non-profit
conversely been a significant
within two years), short term organization led projects are
impediment. Consequently,
actions (within five years), medium underway. Notable donors include
markets despite being primary
term actions (within ten years) and DFID, ADB, WB, UNDP, IUCN,
drivers of inclusive growth have
long term actions (within twenty OXFAM and WWF. Most projects
remained marginal to the process
years). It also recognizes ASAL however are community-led or are
of achieving climate resilient
problems and has set short term, executed provincially with a few
development. Most private sector
medium term and long term national level exceptions like the
initiatives that have taken place are
objectives to tackle specific issues Grass Roots Initiative and
personal initiatives. NCCP 2013
such as water scarcity land Agriculture Linkages Program‟s.
points out this gap and aims to
degradation and desertification Few initiatives such as the UNDP
incorporate economic incentives to
(p.58). The Framework will and Government-led Sustainable
increase industry participation.
tentatively be used as a guideline Land Management to Combat
for preparing detailed provincial and Desertification (2009-17) (UNDP
local adaptation action plans and
for developing the Second National
22
Communication to UNFCCC, CDM priority projects are being implemented in
the following areas: energy, land use, agriculture
NAMAs Framework and NAP. and livestock practices, waste management,
However, it remains to be seen transportation, industrial processes and GHG
how implementation will be carried reduction.

Box 11: Financial obstacles to implementation
Although Pakistan has access to two funds under the UNFCCC to support adaptation efforts; the SCCF
and Adaptation Fund (IISD 2013) and has receive funding for mitigation activities the Global Environment
Facility, lack of financial resources and institutional incapacity remain major constraints to implementation.
In 2013 it was reported that Pakistan needs an average of US $6-14 billion annually over the period to
2050 to meet its adaptation needs, whilst current allocation remains stuck at 0.02 percent of the total Rs.
295.5 billion of development funds (Dawn 2013). Due to inefficient management of environmental
challenges, Pakistan has also not attained membership of the Green Climate Fund which was established
to meet developing country needs by raising approximately a hundred billion dollar per annum fund by
2020, (Dawn 2013). Additionally, in the context of climate finance, it is also unclear how finance funding will
be disbursed to vulnerable areas and/or populations, and on what criteria.
An area where lack of finance is most visible has been in natural disaster management. The government
after the 2005 earthquake and current floods has struggled with accumulation of financial resources to
revive private businesses and livelihoods. To curb further damage, the government recently decided upon
the inclusion of financial risk management measures as a priority action in the National Disaster Risk
Management Framework (NDRMF). A „performance management delivery unit‟ has also been established
by the Prime Minister‟s Office to monitor public sector institutional performance which aims to improve
governance indicators through innovation, strengthening institutions, fostering markets and introducing
reforms in judiciary, police, civil service, taxation, financial administration, property rights and public sector.
The Government is also in the process of preparing voluntary „Corporate Social Responsibility‟ (CSR)
guidelines and a CSR fund to cover carbon emission reduction efforts (NCCP 2013, p.36).
and inform policy makers and between policy development and

3.3 Identifying decision makers about how arid implementation (Box 12).
and semi-arid lands of Pakistan can
priority adaptation become more resilient to climate
Keeping in view PRISE‟s five key
research areas and stakeholder
change.
measures for public findings in mind, the following list of
During the project‟s Inception priority adaptation actions are
and private sector Phase (Year 1), a major aim was to proposed for further research:
identify key policy areas for
Research on adaptation practices
research and development through
for semi-arid regions: It is clear
Opportunities for interaction with stakeholders.
that semi-arid lands have their
Macro-level analysis of SALs was
research on climate carried out through consultation
own set of specific issues. Further
research is required to create
resilient development in with stakeholders at Stakeholder
development strategies which
PRISE Engagement Platforms (SEPs) in
can be utilized to tackle ASAL
order to identify case studies, pilot
In the current policy fixture, PRISE specific issues.
projects, study sites for adaptation
research will focus on: how and to pave the way forward for Financial support: Given the
mechanisms of economic and PRISE. The SEP‟s provided a chronology of policies and plans
social development are impacting unanimous consensus amongst in Pakistan, it is clear that there
and affected by vulnerability to stakeholders on climate change lack of finance has created gap
climate change, where they fail to being a prime issue in need of between policy planning and
meet the needs of the poor and immediate action and generated policy implementation. Without
marginalized and how trade-offs valuable recommendations23. They financial support from the Ministry
can be resolved between the also generated significant gaps and without sound institutional
different dimensions and bases of mechanisms providing funds,
vulnerability. Employing a „policy policy will remain a research
first‟ approach, research under 23
These are discussed in detail, in the exercise.
Stakeholder Engagement Report. The report is
PRISE aims to generate knowledge available upon request from SDPI
Increasing private sector the UNFCCC National Adaptation Given the present development
participation: A major gap is the Plan can be utilized. An exercise landscape of Pakistan and the fact
minimal involvement of in reviewing best practices that majority of the population is
businesses in adaptation adopted by developing dependent on climate-sensitive
practices. Individuals and firms countries25 with functional economic sectors such as
operating in markets are one of NAP‟s26 and seeking technical agriculture and energy for their
the most effective engines of guidance from LDC expert livelihoods, existing social,
economic growth. Research is groups would also benefit the economic and political
required on the opportunities and process. The Oxfam published vulnerabilities and climate risks are
threats posing markets that can Review of Climate Change likely to multiply. The country‟s poor
help encourage the business Adaptation Practices in South performance in key social sectors
community to adopt adaptation Asia27 is one such study that has like health, education and in the
practices. synthesized important lessons provision of basic services have led
learnt from current best practices to widespread poverty and income
Institutional capacity building: A
in the region. Further research on inequality, reflective in provincial
devolved institutional structure
governance will prove beneficial and rural-urban disparities.
has generated serious challenge
for streamlining sector specific
to implementation. Effective In the absence of right sets of
policies and development plan
communication between and policies and strategies that promote
with the NCCP Framework.
within federal, provincial and climate resilient development, it
municipal bodies is essential for Despite the direct manifestation should be in Pakistan‟s national
eliminating government restraints of climate change on Pakistan‟s interest to prepare for the various
(see section A2.2) and in economy, issues of economic climate change challenges it is
developing and implementing growth, social development, currently facing by investing in
strategies like the NAMA‟s24 poverty, and climate change climate resilient development.
(Ministry of Environment 2010). continue to be treated in silos.
Despite the importance of the issue,
There‟s also a need to strengthen
While these are primarily Pakistan lacks a comprehensive
policy linkages with actual
government prerogatives, PRISE assessment of climate change
implementation.
project can offer expertise to projections at the sub-national
Building awareness: Commitment relevant body to identify gaps and scale. Current development and
to fulfill development strategies, offer advice on how those could be adaptation frameworks also lack
polices and plans may be bridged, for instance, a PRISE concrete action plans to implement
improved by enhancing member can join a core decision- adaptation policy. Governance
awareness and understanding making committee of the challenges including the gap
about climate change impacts. government like the PMCCC. between official policy frameworks
Leveraging potential of PRISE and national policies and the lack of
Stakeholder Engagement 3.4 Conclusion commitment towards existing plans,
Platform (SEP), synergies may be policies and strategies reflect
strengthened with important limited understanding and
stakeholders, such as the media, Evidence from both observed and awareness of the issue, which
opinion-makers, and decision- projected climate data indicates poses a serious challenge to policy
makers, and to convince them that Pakistan is experiencing the implementation. To add to insult to
about the seriousness of the same warming trends as the rest of injury, policy formulation
issue. the world. Significant increases in mechanism is not truly backed by
temperature, heavy precipitations, empirical research and field studies.
Utilizing existing frameworks and frequent extreme weather events The sweet will of politicians and
plans: Keeping the Vision 2025 as and sea-level rise have made the bureaucrats is more important in
a reference document, PRISE country especially prone to climate policy making and in its quasi-
may design research on how risks. implementation rather than the
climate change is likely to affect
sound wisdom of technocrats and
key sectors of the economy by
development practitioners who
2025. Also, to facilitate the
have gained long life experiences at
implementation of the NCCP 25
For instance, in Kenya and the Dominican grass root level.
2013, existing frameworks like Republic
26
Under the Cancun Framework, National
Adaptation Plans (NAP‟s) are intended to enable
medium and long term adaptation planning by
24
NAMA‟s are defined as policies and actions by LDC‟s.
27
countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Nepal and Sri
emissions (IFRC, 2013) Lanka
Box 12: Gaps, bottlenecks and implications for further research
• It is difficult to expect a holistic, sector inclusive approach towards the NCCP 2013. Sector specific
policies such as the Drinking Water Policy and Biodiversity Action Plan were encouraged to be the
focus of climate resilient development.
• Policy remains a research exercise without financial support from the ministry, hence highlighting the
dearth of finance and funding.
• To ensure access to the benefits of inclusive growth, directly addressing framing conditions and
mechanisms of economic growth and governance is necessary.
• Planning departments need to play an enhanced on both federal and provincial levels for efficient city
planning in order to overcome problems of overpopulation
• Managing natural resources is of critical importance to Pakistan as the country‟s inefficient usage of
natural resources adversely affects the already vulnerable SAL‟s.
• Mainstreaming climate change in sector specific policies such as water, energy and industrial sector
requires greater cooperation and coordination between the federal government and ministries and
departments concerned.
• Media representatives at the first SEP pointed out the need for interventions at grass roots level.
• The government planning should not only factor in environment, but also, should be made a
prerequisite for developing high end infrastructure projects. For instance estimation of water utilization
(per gallon) for setting up coal power plants.
• Water management has to be viewed as an adaptation strategy. Effective flood water management
projects, for instance, diverting excess water to water scarce areas via canals can ensure climate
resilient development.
• Varied view on the types of intervention calls for research that provides evidence for strong adaptation
practices (such as water shed management for conserving water) which are most suitable for
vulnerable communities. In turn, research would also assist in bridging the gap between theory and
research.
• Making agricultural production climate resilient by adopting climate resilient crop varieties which are
most resistant to heat and water stress.
• The business community needs to be engaged towards adaptation and mitigation through the
provision of incentives such as a cost benefit analysis that would monetize opportunities and climate
induced losses.
Source: Stakeholder Engagement Platform Report (SDPI)

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74 Pakistan; Country situation assessment
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International Development (DfID) and the
International Development Research Centre
(IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in this
work are those of the creators and do not
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Pakistan: Country situation

This Country Situation Assessment has been produced as part of a series

Front cover image:

2 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 3

List of Tables, Boxes and Figures 7

1. The development context 20

2. Climate and Development 36

3. Implications for Adaptation Policy 55

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 7

ADB Asian Development Bank

8 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 9

The development context

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 11

Climate and development

Climate risks in key sectors: impacts and

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 13

Implications for adaptation policy

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 15

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 17

“On climate change, we often don‟t fully appreciate that it is a problem. We

Source: Pakistan Meteroological Department (2000)

Box 1: Semi-arid regions in Pakistan

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 19

Mustard fields in Punjab, Pakistan. © Ayesha Qaisrani

Decade 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2008-13

Box 2: Pakistan’s development history

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 21

Box 3: History of economic busts during military regimes

22 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

3. Promote „green growth‟ by attracting investment in low-carbon technologies.

Source: GoP, 2011b

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 23

24 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Child vendors selling food in

Figure 2: Population growth in Pakistan

Source: GoP 2014c

Source: Euromonitor International from national/UN statistics

28 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Figure 5: GDP Growth

REAL GDP (1999-

Calculation based on PBS data; GDP in 2007-08 prices

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 29

Source: GoP 2014c

Table 4: Employment share by sector (%)

Major Sectors 2009-10 2010-11 2012-13

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 2013a

Source: Lopex-Calix et al 2014

32 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Figure 9: Public expenditure on education as a % of GDP

34 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 35

40% by the 2050s at high latitudes globally. These trends indicate a

36 Pakistan: Country situation assessment

Country Temperature change (oC) Change in Precipitation

Bhutan Increase of 0.01 oC per year (1961-2000) --

India Increase of0.56 oC (1901-2007) Decreasing trend all parts of India

Box 5: IPCC AR5 climate change projection for South Asia

Pakistan: Country situation assessment 37

Table 7: Observed trends in climate extreme events in Pakistan

Droughts Observed increase in subsequent drought occurrence in Pakistan [since mid-