DAY 4

PLANNING & EXECUTION

TIME MANAGEMENT I

Gantt/Bar, Milestones & Critical Path

Analysis

Slide 1
 Project Time Management

Processes to ensure
timely completion of
the project

Slide 2
“Before we begin our Time Management Seminar,
did everyone get one of these 36-hour wrist
watches?”
Slide 3
 Tools for Project Scheduling

• Gantt Bar & Milestone Charting

• Critical Path Method
• Project Scheduling Software

Slide 4
In this Project Management module, we’ll
focus on

Gantt/Bar & Milestone Charts

and their integration with

the Critical Path Method (CPM)

for
scheduling and monitoring projects

as well as
Software for
Project Estimating, Scheduling,
& Performance Monitoring

Slide 5
These are recognized

“Best Practices”

advocated by the international

Project Management Institute

Slide 6
 Gantt (Bar) Chart
Activity ID Number –
Can be WBS Levels TIME SCALE
for Scheduling

No Activity 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
1 Shopping
2 Cooking
3 Laying Tables
4 Inviting Guests
5 Start Dinner
Activity — to do —
Task List

Slide 7
 Activity

An element of work that is

required by the project, uses
resources, and takes time to
complete.

Slide 8
Activity

May be subdivided into

smaller tasks.

Slide 9
Gantt Chart of a Project Lifecycle

Slide 10
Looking at More Detail

Slide 11
Estimating Performance & Reporting
Progress During Implementation

Team Exercise
1

Slide 12
 Project “X”
Gantt/Bar Chart
As of Date Actual Performance
PLAN Reported
Activity
A
B

C
D

Overall Project How would you summarize

Summary overall performance?
GIVE ME A PROGRESS REPORT, with TWO (or THREE) ITEMS:
1) Overall Project Status: How much of the project has been completed?
2) Actual vs. Plan: Is the project “On” “Ahead” or “Behind” Schedule?
Slide 13
DO NOT TURN THE PAGE!
Slide 14
 Estimating Performance & Reporting
Progress During Implementation
With a project plan based only on a Bar/Gantt chart,
there is usually insufficient information to
properly assess implementation status
• Usually only Activities are shown and “Actual”
progress is often a “Best Guess” -- rather than a
computed percentage
• There are several different ways to calculate
percentages – so different results are possible
from the same data
• Excel-based charts do not maintain linkages
between different Activities, Milestones and
Outputs -- so are cumbersome to update
• Sometimes intermediate percentages of
Activities &/or Projects are inadequate . . .

Slide 15
There are at least 7 Methods for Computing
“Percent Complete”
 1. Units Completed or Units In Place
10,000 LM estimated, 4,000 completed = 40%
 2. Incremental Milestones
Equipment received 20%
Equipment Set 15%
Alignment Complete 40%
Testing Completed 15%
Owner Acceptance 10%
TOTAL 100%
 3. Start/Finish
“X”% upon start of the activity, “y”% upon completion
 4. Elapsed Time Ratio
Actual elapsed time compared to planned total project time

Slide 16
 At least 7 Methods for Computing “Percent Complete”
cont’d
 5. Supervisor’s Opinion
“Educated Guesstimate” of % complete
 6. Cost Ratio
Actual Cost in $$ or Manhours to date/Estimate at Completion
 7. Weighted or Equivalent Units

Weight Subtask U/M Quantity Actual Earned

02% Install Bolts Each 200 200 10.4
02% Shim & Level % 100 100 10.4
05% Shake-Out % 100 100 26.0
06% Set Columns Each 87 74 27.5
11% Install Beams Each 859 45 3.0
10% Install X Braces Each 837 0 0
20% Install Girts & Sag Rods Bay 38 0
09% Plumb & Align % 100 5 2.3
30% Connections Each 2977 74 3.9
05% Punch list % 100 0 0
100% Erect Steel Totals Ton 520 N/A 83.5
83.5 tons/520 tons = 16.1% complete
 8. Do You have another different method . . . ?

Slide 17
The Flood Control Project Manager reported the project:
“99.17 percent complete”

Slide 18
The CAMANAVA FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT
was pursued under the Luzon Urban
Beltway program under President Arroyo's
Super Regions scheme, as the final
solution to the frequent flooding in the
Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas and
Valenzuela (CAMANAVA) area.

Slide 19
The project was planned thru the
National Economic Development
Authority (NEDA) in three stages:
1. ICC technical board,
2. technical committee board, and
3. the need to secure an Environmental
Compliance Certificate (ECC).

Slide 20
• Following pre-planning in 1998,
• a feasibility study and a detailed
engineering design was undertaken
from 2001-2002.
• The project commenced in 2003 and
• was supposed to be fully operational in
June 2007.

Slide 21
Before being granted funding by the Japan International
Cooperation Agency, Bartolo said they were required to
remove informal settlers from 1998 to 2000.
"We got funding, but by that time we started in 2003,
nagbalikan (yung informal settlers), tapos another
round of removal na naman."

Delays have worsened flooding problem in the city.

Heavy rains spawned by Tropical Storm "Falcon"
caused flooding in some major roads in Metro Manila,
especially in the CAMANAVA area.
Four barangays in Malabon were also under water

Slide 22
• In May 2008, the completion date was moved to Sept.
2008 as reported by project manager Carla Bartolo.

• A later progress report -- in June 2008 -- revised the

completion date anew to September 2009. . . .
• [i.e. projecting an additional year behind schedule]

• Bartolo reported that the flood control project is

“99.17 percent complete”

• but Oreta, an engineer, described the figure as

“ridiculous”. . . [Malabon’s chief engineer, Ruth
Senaida] said “seeing the project physically, I can
say that her report is incorrect.”

Slide 23
 Malabon execs, residents set to picket DPWH
By Jerry Botial The Philippine STAR METRO Friday June 27 2008

Malabon Mayor Canuto Oreta, the city’s flood

advisory council and prominent residents threatened
yesterday to stage a series of mass actions to protest an
announcement by the Department of Public Works and
Highways (DPWH) that it will need another year to
finish the Camanava flood control project. . . . Oreta
said the people are outraged as they have long been
calling for the immediate completion of the project,
which started on June 10, 2003 should have
been finished on June 4, 2007.

Slide 24
 Two Years Later – i.e. 3 years behind
schedule as of October 2010

-- the same DPWH Project Manager reports: “Close to

99% Complete” in other words they slipped at
least 0.18% from 2008!
BUT “Even if we have not reached Bartolo said the residents of Malabon
100 percent completion we have would notice an improvement –
initiated provision maintenance so floodwaters in Catmon would now be
the areas covered by the project around onea foot deep, compared to
MajorinCauses of Delay
would not submerged BUT: With
Cited: site survey these
around two were
conditions and half
all feet deep before!
foreseeable
floodwaters, just like
•Roadin the past”
Right of Way Acquisition
&
•8,000 Squatters
Bartolo said. (i.e. scope change) should
[i.e. Maybehave been
Necessary, but certainly
factored
in the Not plan
original Sufficient!]
& Schedule;
•300 private properties
•Underground water, as power
well as&identified as Risks for
telecommunicationsmonitoring,
lines mitigation and
additional funding if necessary!

Slide 25
 Yet another Year Later
as of June 2011 -- Now 4 years behind
schedule
The same DPWH Project Manager reports:
“We will be completing by November”
"We have remaining 1.7 km long boulder dike in Dampalit na
binabaha," Director Carla Bartolo of the Department of
Public Works and Highways (DPWH) - Camanava Flood
Control Project told ANC's "The Rundown".
"Ito yung natitira we will be completing by November,"
Bartolo said, adding they bidded out the area this week.*
"Hopefully by August masimulan you completion ng boulder
dike.“
*Seems Very Optimistic – She still doesn’t appear to have taken into account
the time for completing the procurement process!
Slide 26
 JUNE 2011 Camanava flood control
project
“Nears Completion”
By Caroline Howard, ANC

Department of Public Works and Highways officials

said they are set to complete the remaining
unfinished section, a 1.7 kilometer long boulder
dike in Dampalit, before year-end. . . .

(i.e. December 2011)

Slide 27
 March 2012: The P5.5-billion
Camanava flood control project
is now
“Substantially Finished”

DPWH are “upbeat”

”The defective navigational floodgate at the mouth of

the Malabon-Navotas River, which controls the exit and
entry of the seawater, is undergoing repair. It is
scheduled to be finished on March 30.

The repair cost is around P400 million,

Pete Laude The Philippine Star March 12, 2012

Slide 28
The Project Manager’s Viewpoint

DPWH officials blame the delays on changes in site

conditions, change in topography, the rise of
informal settlers and affected private properties.

These include the right of way acquisition involving

private properties and informal settlers, right of
way acquisition involving underground and aerial
utilities, as well as weather disturbances.

Slide 29
Bartolo said only some components of the
project were suspended.
She added the original plan for the northern
Catmon drainage facility was to construct
two canals on both sides, but that plan
changed following consultation with
Malabon Mayor Canuto Oreta.

The local government wanted a box culvert

constructed underground so as not to
affect the right of way.

Slide 30
 The Customer’s Perspective

Malabon City Administrator Engr. Benjie Villacorta said

the DPWH may have left out a critical part of the
process: consultation with the local
government.
"Any change order should be done in consultation with
the end user," Villacorta said, but adds facilities and
designs that were installed were not well-studied or
well-suited. He said the local government was not
consulted on changes made to the original design.

"We've been asking for a copy of the demolished

area. The DPWH showed documents puro
CAMANAVA pero walang nagcertify if the informal
dwellers were removed."
Slide 31
City Engineer Edgar Yanga said the P3.5 billion
project now amounts to P5.5 billion but with
less of the features earlier proposed.
He pointed out how a floodgate was removed
from the area close to the bridged dike
without their knowledge, and a navigational
gate was also missing from the project, while
three bridges supposed to have been
elevated were not done.

Slide 32
"We could've helped. Three years ago sa inip ni
Mayor Oreta nagcreate ng flood advisory council
kung saan lahat ng sector sa Malabon in-
involve."

Around that time the Camanava Project was

suspended for a year.

But Yanga pointed out, nothing was added to the

cost of the Camanava flood control project. He
said the total project cost, including the right of
way acquisition and project management, stood
at P5.2 billion, inclusive of the P3.5 billion
estimated cost of civil works and the contract
cost.
Slide 33
Two pumping stations for the Dampalit area,
which were earlier approved by NEDA, were
deleted because of the limited loan amount,
adding they had to work within their limited
resources.
Experts pointed out the long-term plan is to fix
the drainage system in the CAMANAVA
area. They said officials may need to factor
in results of a UP study on the supposed
sinking of the CAMANAVA area to the city's
anti-flood measures.

Slide 34
Slide 35
Slide 36
PROJECT UPGRADE NOW REQUIRED

A “regular upgrade” of the project is necessary

for it to become effective since seawater is
rising continuously due to global warming.

Recent studies show that the city is sinking by

two centimeters yearly because of soil
subsidence.

Slide 37
 Plus
ON-GOING MAINTENANCE
Water hyacinths are clogging the drainways of the flood control
project in Malabon City, hampering the flow of water toward its
pumping station. The water hyacinths must be removed
regularly to prevent it from clogging the canal. A small
water lily could grow to more than a meter wide in just a week,
that’s why it now covers almost the entire width of the canal,”
Malabon City engineer Edgar Yanga said a creek in Barangay Catmon,
which connects the Letre canal in Caloocan City to the main water
system of the Cloocan-Malabon-Navotas-Valenzuela (Camanava)
flood control project, had been previously cleared of tons of water
hyacinths.
Yanga said that the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) has
assigned men to clean the canal of debris that obstruct the flow of
water.
But residents near the waterway said a backhoe used in cleaning the
creek lays idle on its bank for almost three months now and men
that used to gather water hyacinths at the creek seldom come to do
their work.“
Slide 38
 THE CAMANAVA PROJECT TIME LINE
Pre- Feasibility Study
Planning & Detailed Schedule Overrun: (4-9 yrs) 125%
Engineering
Design Cost Overrun: (3.5 – 5.5 B) 57%
Quality
Remove Planned Execution
Squatters 4 years
Actual Execution
9 years

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Slide 39
 ROOT CAUSES:
1. Project Manager’s authority apparently limited to “in-
Scope” engineering activities.
2. Apparently no higher level “Program Manager” to
coordinate with “Clients” – i.e. city officials – and address
their concerns
3. Delays in meeting pre-conditions. Assumptions and risks
regarding Right of Way (ROW) not adequately addressed
IMPLEMENTATION MANAGEMENT FAILURES:
1. Little or no management attention paid to deal with non-
engineering ROW issues after the planning stage
2. Schedule slippage -- management didn’t mitigate risks
3. Cost overruns incurred
4. Failure to start or complete some planned work items
5. Failure to coordinate Scope changes with Clients
Slide 40
 Reporting Task Completion

0% or 100% Rule
(Safest -- Conservative)

0%, 50%, or 100% Rule

(aggressive)

Any Percentage, but USE WITH CAUTION --

ONLY WHEN THE Percentage is BOTH
MEASURABLE & MEANINGFUL; Otherwise you
will end up paying for incomplete “WHITE
ELEPHANTS”

Slide 41
 Which brings us to a significant
improvement in project performance
monitoring & reporting:

MILESTONES !

Slide 42
 “Milestones”

In Project design & monitoring, Milestones can be identified and

used as Checkpoints for Schedule &/or Technical
Performance
Slide 43
 Milestone Chart
Data
Date

Event Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Subcontracts Signed
Specifications Finalized
Design Reviewed
Subsystem Tested
First Unit Delivered
Production Plan Completed

There are many other acceptable ways to display project information on a milestone chart.

Slide 44
 Gantt (Bar) Chart with Milestones
Activity ID Number –
Can be WBS Levels TIME SCALE
for Scheduling

No Activity 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
1 Shopping
2 Cooking
3 Laying Tables
4 Inviting Guests
Milestones for
5 Start Dinner specific
checkpoints
Activity — to do — in the project
Task List Performance
process

Slide 45
 Project “X” PLAN
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones

PLAN
Activity
A
B
C
D

Project
Summary

Slide 46
 Project “X” PLAN
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones

= Completed MS
PLAN PROGRESS REPORT
Activity As of Date 1) 15 Total LOP
Milestones Planned;
A 5 Completed.
Overall Progress
B 5/15 = Project is
33% Complete
C 2) 5 Milestones were
scheduled to date;
D 5 completed.
5/5 = 100%
Project Project Variance
Summary = 0%
ON Schedule

Slide 47
 Project “X” ACTUAL
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones

PROGRESS REPORT
= Completed MS
1) Total Project 15
As of Date
PLAN Milestones Planned;
Activity 6 Completed.
Overall Progress
6/15 = Project is
A 40% Complete

B
2) 5 Milestones were
scheduled to date;
6 completed. 6/5 =
C Project is Ahead of
Schedule by 12%
D

Project
Summary

Slide 48
 Reporting Progress During
Implementation

Gantt-Bar Charts can be prepared with Excel Spreadsheets

(based on computed percentages) and they are useful for
reports and making briefings to stakeholders
However, they usually lack computations that take into
consideration the interrelationship between the
Milestones of different Activities which is
“critical” in estimating performance

Slide 49
 Project “X” PLAN
Gantt/Bar Chart with Milestones, & showing
interdependencies

PLAN
Activity
A
B
C
D

Project
Summary

Slide 50
THE CRITICAL PATH METHOD
(CPM)

Slide 51
CRITICAL PATH METHOD – (CPM)
NETWORK

G
A L

Slide 52
Network Diagramming :
“Rules of Thumb”

 There is a starting point

 There is an ending point
 There are predecessors for all
activities (except the first)
 There are successors for all
milestones (except the last)
 There are no loops
 The logic is updated
 The network must be kept
current

Slide 53
 Arrow Diagramming
For concurrent activities in an “Activity-on-Arrow” Network that start
from the same milestone and would otherwise finish at a same ending
milestone, use an additional “0 duration” “Dummy Activity” and an
additional Milestone – to help clarify computation of the Earliest Finish
(EF), and Latest Finish (LF) times.
A 2
A

1
1 B 2
B

Right
Wrong

A Dummy activity has no duration and uses no resources. It is

simply a means to indicate the sequential relationship.

Slide 54
 AoA -- Activity-on-Arrow Network

Activities (Tasks) are represented by Arrows,

and Start/Stop Milestones by Nodes or Boxes

MILESTONE MILESTONE MILESTONE

ACTIVITY ACTIVITY

Slide 55
 Three Improvements of CPM over Gantt /
Bar & Milestone Charts

1. The sequential interdependence between

Activities in the project – i.e. “What comes before
What” -- is identified; which affects timing and
scheduling
2. The most important – i.e. “critical” -- sequence of
activities is identified for priority monitoring and
on-going management
3. The extent of “hurry up & wait” and “wait &
hurry up” timing associated with particular
Activities throughout the project -- due to
sequencing -- is identified and highlighted for
scheduling available resources, as well as
monitoring and on-going management
Slide 56
 Steps in Critical Path Networking

• Identify Outputs (Deliverables)

• Identify Activities/Tasks needed to produce
Deliverables
• Sequence Activities/Tasks
– Simple — strictly sequential
– Complex — parallel, interrelated / interdependent

Slide 57
 SIMPLE : Gantt / Bar Chart is OK

A “One-off” Project

with a Series of Sequential Steps

and
No Concurrent Activities

Slide 58
 PARALLEL : Gantt / Bar Chart is OK
Diverse – unrelated -- sub-projects, with staggered
starts and in different geographic areas
(to be designed locally during project implementation)
i.e. demand-driven Participatory
Rural Development, &/or Community-initiated
1 sub-projects but monitored and managed
2 with a similar replicable
processing structure
3
4
5
Slide 59
 Monitoring Approach for a Parallel
Repetitive-Type Project
A. Describe the Project Purpose as a generic
OUTCOME — i.e. Improved Quality of Life for
Villages throughout the North East Region
B. Develop the model to process a single sub-project
intervention, with key intermediate process
steps as Milestones – i.e. Committee Formed,
Sub-project (SP) Concept Developed, Concept
Approved, Funding Provided, SP Implemented, SP
Completed, SP Operational
C. Designate the End of the Process as a generic
OUTPUT INDICATOR – i.e. Sub-Project
Operational
D. Note the Output anticipated for each Sub-project — i.e.
66 wells constructed”, “30 People Trained”, etc.
Slide 60
CRITICAL PATH METHOD – (CPM)
NETWORK
MILESTONE MILESTONE
ACTIVITY

Sequential Logic:
What activities What activities
must be done must be done
before? What activities after?
can be done
concurrently?

Slide 61
TEAM EXERCISE

Develop an interrelated
Project Activity-on-Arrow
Logic Network – based on
the Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS) &
Logframe
FOR YOUR PROJECT
Slide 62
 How to Develop the Critical Path
Method Logic Network
Rotate the WBS 90 degrees clockwise. This serves as your
skeleton framework for building the Critical Path Logic
Network. THEN ADD :
• A Start Milestone (Draw a “box outline” around the “post-it” note to
identify it as a Milestone. Alternately, use different colored “post-its”
to easily distinguish between milestones and activities)
• Start & Complete Milestones as “post-it” notes for each of
the other items
• Activities & Tasks -- as needed -- to accomplish the items
(Draw an arrow on the top of the “post-it” note -- or use a different
colored “post-it” -- to distinguish it as an activity or task)
• Linkages between Milestones, Output Components and other
Activities -- as needed
• A Completion Milestone for the PURPOSE START of the entire
network
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS TIME DURATIONS OR TIME
SCALING AT THIS STAGE.

Slide 63
POST-IT NOTES for Drafting
Critical Path Networks
Activity Milestone

Slide 64
Slide 65
Calculating a Network, & Showing
the Critical Path

[Forward Pass]
Identifies the Earliest Time a Milestone
can be completed

Slide 66
 3 2 5
5 1
0 3 3 B D 6 8 2 10
A F G
2 2 8 10
5 5 1 6
2 E
C
2 6
Calculating a Network, and Showing
the Critical Path

Slide 67
 Team Reinforcement Exercise

In Your Teams:
Use the foregoing demonstration to:
– Compute the Earliest Times for each
Milestone
– Identify the Critical Path
– Time scale the Network, and
– Develop a related Gantt/Milestone Chart
for the following Project

Slide 68
 Calculate a NETWORK
Critical Path
Based on its Earliest Activity Times

3
B C 3 F
2 5 4 5

A 4 D
1 E 1
H 4 3
2 J Z
6
3
G 4
I

NOTE: Handout a copy

to each Team
Slide 69
 Calculate a NETWORK
Critical Path
Based on its Earliest Activity Times

5
2 8 11
3
2 B C 3 F
5
2 5 7 4 11 5
0 7 8
4 4 8 16 16 19
A 4 D 1 5 E 1
H 4 12 3 19
J Z
2 6 8
2 9
6 6
3
2 G 4
I

Slide 70
COMPLEX “One Off” : Most suited for the
CRITICAL PATH METHOD – (CPM)

G
A L

Slide 71
 Steps in Scheduling II

• Estimate Time Durations for Activities/Tasks

• Calculate through the Entire Chart (or Network)

to Determine the Project “Critical Path” Duration

• CHECK
– Whether End Completion/Delivery date is acceptable

– Logic Sequences & Interdependencies between

Activities/Tasks

– Refine — Eliminate, Combine, Rearrange, Simplify and

negotiate to meet both management and customer’s
needs
Slide 72
Time Scaling a Network, Showing
the Critical Path

Slide 73
TEAM EXERCISE

Time Scaling a
Project Network

Slide 74
 Time-Scale a NETWORK
Based on its Earliest Activity Times
2 5 5 11
3 8
2 B C 3 F
2 4 11 5
0 5 7
7 8
4 4 8 16 16 19
A 4 1 5 E 1
D H 4 12 3 19
J Z
2 6 8
2 3 9
6
2 G 4
I
6
NOTE: Slack - - - is After its Activity – i.e. “Hurry Up & Wait”
The Critical Path is the
longest series of Activities,
B C and the shortest time to
F complete the process

A D E H J Z

G I

Slide 75
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Linking a Time Scaled Network to a
Gantt / Bar Chart

Slide 76
 Time Scaling a Network and Linking it
to a Gantt / Bar Chart
3 2 5
1
0 3 B D
A 2 8 10
1 6 2 2
5 F G
Activity 2
C E
AB
AC
BC
BD
CE
DF
EF
FG
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
A B D E F G
C Slide 77
TEAM EXERCISE

Linking a Time
Scaled Network to
a Gantt/Bar Chart

Slide 78
Time-Scaled Network converted to a Gantt/Bar Chart
B C
F

A D E H J Z

G I
AB
BC
CF
BE
AD
DE
EF
EH
AG
GH
FJ
HJ
GI
IJ
JZ
Slide 79
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
 CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

NOTE: Two Different Formats:

Activity-on-Arrow (AoA) or Arrow Diagramming Method

[Usually hand-drawn]
Activity-on-Node (AoN) or Precedence Diagramming Method
[Usually computer-based]

Both Widely Used – BUT DON’T MIX THEM !!!

Slide 80
 PDM – Precedence Diagramming Method

PDM represents Activities by Boxes

instead of Arrows
Activity
Prepare Test Plan
3 5 days

Activity Duration
Number

NOTE: PDM is the Format used by MS Project & Primavera Software

Slide 81
Sample “MS Project” Worksheet

Slide 82
 MS PROJECT
SOFTWARE
DEMONSTRATION
The ABC Project
Network

Slide 83
 PDM Network Diagramming
The logical sequence and interrelationships of the project
activities are shown, but the time duration is not graphed.

Note: All arrows in a PDM network are essentially dummy activities.

7 days 15 days

Prepare
Func Develop 10 days
Specs

1 day 5 days 8 days Testing 5 days

Approve Prepare Prepare Acceptance

Requirements Test Plan Test Data Testing

8 days 5 days

Prepare
Training Training
Manual

“Post-it” Notes are very useful for preparing 1st draft PDM Networks

Slide 84
 Duration Compression I
Crashing
– Decreasing the total project duration by adding
resources to the schedule without changing the
sequence of activities
– Analyze both schedule and cost to obtain the greatest
amount of compression for the least incremental cost.
7 days 15 days

Prepare
Func Develop 10 days
Specs Reduce to 10 Days
1 day 5 days 8 days Testing 5 days

Approve Acceptance
Prepare Test Plan Prepare Test Data
Requirements Training

8 days 5 days

Prepare Training
Training
Manual

Slide 85
 Duration Compression II
Fast tracking
– Doing activities in parallel that
would normally be done in sequence
Fabricate Shell Fabricate Interior Install Fittings
“A” 10 days Fittings “B” 10 days “C” 5 days 25 days

Fabricate Shell Install Fittings

15 days
“A” 10 days “C” 5 days

Fabricate Interior 1. Depends on the availability of resources to work

on parallel activities, as well as
Fittings “B”
2. The likelihood that the “normal” successor
10 days component will “fit” with the predecessor
component when both are developed concurrently

Slide 86
 The Three Advantages of Starting with a
Critical Path Network Analysis and then
converting it to a Gantt / Bar Chart

Interdependencies between Activities

are Identified
Critical Path Identified
Slack / Float of Activities Identified

Slide 87
 Usefulness of CPM

In planning:
 it forces the project staff to carefully identify the
tasks to be undertaken
 Precisely determine the relationships of the
tasks to each other
 Allows planners to do “what-if” scenarios to
determine the impact of task slippages
 Helps to create more realistic estimates of
project schedules

Slide 88
Project Estimating

Slide 89
“I hate to criticize, but you’ve only been employed
here for two days and you’re already three weeks
behind in your work.”
Slide 90
 Types of Estimate

• Concept oriented (Rough order of magnitude)

– High level definition
– Requirements not fully defined
– Accuracy of -25% to +75%
– Informal techniques used
• Function oriented (budgetary estimate)
– Requirements are well defined
– Accuracy of -10% to +25%
• Implementation oriented (definitive estimate)
– Accuracy of -5% to +10%

Slide 91
 What to Estimate

• Size
• Effort
• Duration
• Resources – human,
hardware, software and
supplies

Slide 92
 ESTIMATING ACTIVITY DURATIONS

• TIME is fundamental to all Projects

• Most Project Managers focus on managing
TIME
• Most Project Management Software focuses on
TIME
• Control of time is often used to control costs

Slide 93
 AFTER IDENTIFYING ACTIVITIES
& SEQUENCING THEM

ACCURATELY ESTIMATING ACTIVITY DURATIONS

& TIMING

IS THE NEXT IMPORTANT ASPECT OF

PROJECT SCHEDULING

Slide 94
 Estimating Project Duration is not Easy

Estimating as Accurately as possible is

important, but
• Time/Cost/Quality affect each other
• Estimating Methods affect accuracy
• How much detail do you need?
– Top Down
– Bottom up
• In the Real World, Estimates and Actuals are
usually different

Slide 95
Who Provides the Best Estimates?

• Those who
know the work
• Those who are
accountable
for the work
• Those who do
the work

Slide 96
Estimation Methods and Techniques

• Analogous (Top Down)

• Parametric Modeling
• Detailed (Bottom up)

Slide 97
 Analogous (Top Down) Components
100 %
Computer
Allocate Percentages
Project to each level
30 % 10 % 60 %
Computer Computer
System Testing
Hardware Software

5% 10 % 5% 10 %
Hardware Built Testing Hardware
Design Hardware Facility Testing

20 % 30 % 10 %
Software Software
Tests Design
Design Codes

Slide 98
Parametric Modeling
Parametric modeling uses
project characteristics
(parameters) in a
mathematical model to
predict project costs.

Examples:
In construction, use the per
square meter of living space
to estimate cost.
In software development,
uses the no. of lines of code
to predict cost.

Slide 99
Analogous (Bottom Up) Components
$5,000

Overseas trip
Add Up Estimated
preparation item Costs at each
level
$500 $2,750 $1,750

Travel Accommodation Personal

Documents & Transportation Belongings

$150 $350 $1,000 $750

Passport Visas Clothing Other Items

$1,000 $750 $1,000

Car Rental
Plane ticket Hotel
&/or Taxis

Slide
100
 IMPLEMENTATION PLANNING
& SCHEDULING
Estimating Activity Times,
& Ultimately Project Duration

Slide
101
How to Prepare a Project Schedule
– Identify Activities & Milestones (WBS &
LOGFRRAME)
– Prepare Network diagram (CPM)
– Estimate the level-of-effort (staff-hours) to
complete the activities
– Translate effort into duration (working time)
– Convert working time to calendar time
– Identify “Critical Path” & Slack/Float
– Assign staff to work on activities

Slide
102
 Project Activity Duration Estimating
& Scheduling
Time estimates are typically Over-optimistic for one or
more principal reasons:
CLIENT DRIVEN The Client establishes the project
completion deadline before technical analysis,
consultation or project management feedback
CONTRACTOR RESPONSE In order to be “Fully
Responsive” Contractors (Project Managers) accept
the Client’s deadline to hopefully win the contract

Slide
103
Project Activity Duration Estimating

After technical analysis Contractors either

• Arbitrarily “Cut and Paste” activity time
estimates to fit the Client’s pre-determined
schedule.
• Use a standard “PERT 3 time estimating
method” but tend to favor the “Optimistic
Time” over the Most Likely Time in “Cutting
and Pasting” their final schedule proposal.
CONTRACTOR IMPLEMENTATION experience is
that even the “Most Likely Time” is usually over-
optimistic & unrealistic!

Slide
104
RISK QUANTIFICATION

Determining
Risk Events &
Risk Tolerance

Slide
105
Slide
106
Slide
107
Slide
108
 PERT/CPM Analysis

The Dilbert cartoon illustrates the problem

faced by project estimators, as well as
some of the terms commonly used in
planning:
• Optimistic
• Most Likely
• Pessimistic, &
• Realistic
Times
Slide
109
Program Evaluation & Review Technique
(PERT)

A 3-time probability-based
time estimating technique
te = O + 4M + P activity & project duration
often used to estimate

6 when there is uncertainty

i.e. a Weighted Average with individual activity
or “Mean” time duration estimates
of the range of
possibilities

Slide
110
 PERT Method – Activity Duration
Estimate
Optimistic + (4 x Most Likely) + Pessimistic
6
Example:
Optimistic time is 10 weeks
Pessimistic time is 35 weeks
Most likely time is 15 weeks

10+(4x15)+35 = 10+60+35 = 105

6 6 6

te = 17.5 weeks, or 18 weeks (rounded up)

Expected Time
Slide
111
 The “PERT” Formula
A Fundamental Flaw, & Caution

The PERT formula to estimate Activity

duration – i.e. the “Expected” time -- is a
weighted average. Thus the probability of
completing the Activity early or on time is
only 50%
In other words, at the outset, the Activity
duration is under-estimated half of the
time, so there is an equal likelihood the
Expected time will not be met, but will be
overrun.
Slide
112
 Russian Roulette “RR”
Project Managers who use
the Standard PERT 3-Time
formula to estimate project
Activity timing run a high
risk of Failure . . .

Even Worse than Playing

RUSSIAN ROULETTE !!!

Slide
113
 Russian Roulette “RR”
What is the Probability of
Surviving “RR” with One Round
in a Six Cylinder Chamber
Revolver?
• Point the Gun at Your Head
• Spin the Chamber
• Pull the Trigger
• Probability of being killed is
1 / 6 = 17 %
Thus Probability of Surviving =
100% - Probability of Dying =
83%

Slide
114
 Russian Roulette “RR”
And the Probability
of Surviving with:
Three Rounds in
the Chamber
= 3 / 6 = 50 %
This is the same probability as
the PERT “3 time” weighted-
average estimating formula!!!

Slide
115
 Also known as the “50 50” Method

However many people’s experience with “50 50”

is that it is more like
“50 50 90”

i.e. “if you have a 50 50 chance of success,

90% of the time the worst option occurs!

Presentation Title (Change Footer) Slide 116

Would You play Russian
Roulette with One bullet?

NO? Then why expect Project Managers

to Estimate & Schedule
Project Activities with the
“PERT 3 Time Formula”
Which is the equivalent of
Russian Roulette with Three bullets?
Slide
117
 Project Activity Duration Estimating
& Scheduling
REMEDY
CONTRACTOR RESPONSE: Contractors (Project Managers)
• Conduct the Technical Analysis using a supplement to the PERT
3-time estimating approach that improves the probability of
developing a more realistic time estimate
• Provide feedback to the Client ASAP -- Brief the Client to
demonstrate why their deadline is unrealistic, and appeal for
duration extension, or reduction in Scope of Work before submitting
a bid
• If Client insists on the Original Project Completion Deadline
&/or Scope, either
• Get a change order ASAP if you are the successful bidder
• Don’t Bid and consider yourself lucky you won’t have to deal
with the time, cost & quality problems that will inevitably arise!

Slide
118
PERT Formula — A Work-Around Solution

Ken Smith’s “Realistic Time” Strategy

1. Use the PERT 3 time formula during the

planning stage as the first step in estimating
individual activity durations
2. Then add two standard deviations to the
activity duration
This will readjust the likelihood of
completing the activity by its scheduled time
to 95%

Slide
119
 Realistic Activity Time
Dr. Ken’s prescription for
improving activity duration estimating

Take 1 PERT
+ 2 ESD’s

ter = opt + 4 ML + pess + 2 Std. Devs

6

Slide
120
NORMAL CURVE, RANGE, STANDARD DEVIATION,
and RELATED PROBABILITIES

MEAN

-3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3

0.13% 2.15% 13.54% 34.13% 34.13% 13.5% 2.15% 0.13%

-1 SD X +1 SD
68.26%
-2SD +2SD
95.44%
-3SD +3SD
99.74%
95%
0% 100%
50% Slide
121
 The MEAN & the Standard Deviation

• A Mean (Average) is a measure of “Central

Tendency” – i.e. the midpoint of a range of
values
• A Standard Deviation is a measure of Dispersal
from the Mean within that range – essentially the
Opposite of a Mean
• Each Standard Deviation from the mean
represents a fixed percentage
• The Probability of any value occurring in that
range is the size of its standard deviation from
the mean
Slide
122
 Basic PERT/CPM Formula

Activity te = opt + 4 ML + pess

6
pess - opt
Activity Estimated =
Standard Deviation
6

Slide
123
 Realistic Time Example
GIVEN: Optimistic Time = 3 ; Most Likely = 7
and Pessimistic Time = 23
PERT Expected Time ( te ) = [ 3 + 4(7) + 23 ] / 6 =
[ 3 + 28 + 23 ] / 6 = 54 / 6 = 9

One Estimated Standard Deviation (ESD) = [23 – 3] / 6 = 3.3

So Two ESDs = 3.3 x 2 = 6.6
THUS the “Realistic Activity Time”
(with a 95% probability of attainment)
= 9 + 6.6 = 15.6, or 16 rounded

Slide
124
 A NOTE ON PROBABILITY

• A Risk Event could still occur

Despite a Low Probability
and
• A Risk Event might not occur
Despite a High Probability

There are No Guarantees !!!

Slide
125
 DURING
IMPLEMENTATION
Monitor both physical and
financial performance
Obtain Actual Results and
compare vs. Plan/Schedule

Slide
126
Project implementation performance can
be measured in several ways.
By:
– Milestones and Percentage of Completion
– Closeness to the target
– Reaching -- or exceeding -- the target
– Percentage improvement over the baseline
– 5 point “Thai” Scale variance from the target
– Project Performance Index (PPI) & Traffic
Light System

Slide
127
 Team Exercise - Estimating
• Regroup in your Teams
• Upgrade your WBS based on new information &
feedback
• Estimate [“Best Guess!”] Resource Requirements
and Costs for each Component, Activity and Task
in your WBS
• Estimate [“Best Guess!”] Time Durations for each
Activity and Task in the WBS independently, using
the PERT formula. [NOTE: Do not attempt to
Schedule the overall Project WBS]
• Prepare a Resource Register with the
Estimated Costs and Estimated Duration for
each item in the WBS
Slide
128
 Finding the Critical Path
Calculate ES & EF Cumulatively [Same as Activity-on-Arrow Diagram]
ES = 1 EF = 8 ES = 8 EF = 23
LS & LF are
Prepare functional
Develop codes
specs determined by
2 7 days 5 15 days
ES = 23 EF = 33 calculating back from
the End Activity
Conduct testing
LS = 1 LF = 8 LS = 8 LF = 23

ES = 0 EF = 1 ES = 1 EF = 6 ES = 6 EF = 14 ES = 33 EF = 38
7 10 days

Approve requirements Prepare test plan Prepare test data Approve requirements
LS = 23 LF = 33

1 1 day 3 5 days 6 8 days 9 5 days

LS = 0 LF = 1 LS = 10 LF = 15 LS = 15 LF = 23 LS = 33 LF = 38

ES = 1 EF = 9 ES = 9 EF = 14

Prepare training
NOTE: No
Conduct training
manuals
Milestones shown
4 8 days 8 5 days in this example
LS = 20 LF = 28 LS = 28 LF = 33
Earliest Start, Earliest Finish; Latest Start & Latest Finish shown
WEAKNESSES: 1) Cannot Time-Scale or show Slack / Float Graphically
Slide
2) Difficult to prepare a Gantt Chart manually from PDM Format
129
 Calendar Time

Elapsed time
– Accounts for all time, not
just time spent on the
project

Working time
– Time spent working on
the project; Synonymous
with productive time

Slide
130
 Usefulness of CPM & PERT

In planning:
 it forces the project staff to carefully identify the tasks to
be undertaken
 Precisely determine the relationships of the tasks to
each other
 Allows planners to do “what-if” scenarios to determine
the impact of task slippages
 Helps to create more realistic estimates of project
schedules

Slide
131
 Key Time Estimating Issues that can be
Explored with the
CRITICAL PATH CONCEPT

• Calculating Realistic durations and timings --

Earliest & Latest -- for Activities & Milestones
• Determining reasonable deadlines
• Identifying “Hurry up & wait” and “Wait & hurry up”
Activities
• Parallel Scheduling of Selected Activities to speed
up project implementation
• Fast Track Facilitation
• Identifying Merge/Burst Points
• Identifying “bottle neck” Activities
• Performing “What if” simulations for forward
planning
Slide
132
 Project Management
Competency

Team Activity: Compute Your

Project Network based on the
logic and estimated duration
data, then Prepare a Time Scaled
Network and Gantt/MS Chart

Slide
133
 GRAND FINALE
SMALL GROUP EXERCISE
CRITICAL PATH II:
The Project Implementation
Game ©

Created by Kenneth F. Smith, PMP

Project Management Institute (PMI)
Honolulu Chapter
Kenfsmith@aol.com

Slide
134
Slide
135
 Critical Path II —
The Project Implementation Game©

Key Critical Path Management Concepts

Incorporated:
Network implementation plan:
“Activity-on-arrow” and “merge milestones”
On-going Situational Risk Assessment:
To mitigate the “Triple Threat” — i.e. Time,
Cost and Technical Performance
Cash Flow Management :
Incremental costs and progress payments

Slide
136
PROGRESS MARKERS

Activity – Temporary
&
Milestone -- Permanent

Slide
137
 MONEY

One Megabuck ($1 MB)

Five Megabucks ($5 MBs)

Ten Megabucks ($10 MBs)

Slide
138
 LEVEL OF EFFORT/RESOURCES:

• Players each receive an Advance Mobilization Fee of 60 megabucks (MB).

• FIVE Dice represent the level of effort/resources available each round of play.
• Players buy 5 dice from the bank for 5 MB, during each round of play.
• Players can also borrow money from the Bank during play – but with interest.
• After rolling the dice, players can travel along any available activity paths —
concurrently — for the distance indicated by the dice COMBINATIONS.
• Players get 5 MB Progress Payments from the Bank when they complete
Milestones, plus incentive bonuses from other players who have not yet
completed the Milestone (or incur penalty fees to pay others who beat them to
the Milestone)
• Travel distance on the activity paths is shown by the numbers on the dice.
• Milestones must be reached with the exact amounts shown. Dice scores higher
than required to reach the milestone cannot be used at all.
• [I.e. just as in the “real world”, once procured, players must either “use” or
“lose” the resource.] [SEE MORE DETAILS IN THE RULES]
Slide
139
MID-TERM EVALUATION

Slide
140
PROJECT MID-TERM Implementation
Evaluation

Slide
141
 Project Performance Mid-Term Evaluation
Enter in Col A the number of Milestones (MS) completed
as of the end of JUNE; Then calculate Cols D, E & F :

A B C D E F
Interim Total % of Total % of Target %
Actual (i.e. Life of Project MS MS to Date Performance
cumu-
# of Project (i.e. 19) (i.e. 12) Variance to
lative to
Milestones MS Completed Completed Date
Completed date)
MS Target = 100 (A / C) = 100 (A / B) = 100 [(A-B) / B]
Target

12 19

SEE FOLLOWING READY-REFERENCE CHART FOR DETAILS

Slide
142
 Performance Evaluation Percentages
Ready Reference
M 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
S 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
T 8 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
D 7 5 3 2 0 8 7 5 3 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5
% 0 8 7 5 3 2 0 8
%
L 5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 1
o 1 6 1 6 2 7 2 7 3 8 3 8 4 9 4 9 5 0
P % 0
%
St - - - - - - - - - - - O + + + + + + +
at 9 83 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 08 N 0 1 2 3 4 5 5
u 2 5 7 8 0 2 3 5 3 8 7 5 3 2 0 8
s
Slide
143
 Making QUALITATIVE
Judgements QUANTITATIVE

The “THAI” 5 Point Scale:

5 pts + 3 SDs
“Outstanding”
4 pts + 2 SDs
“Good”

+/-1
3 pts “Satisfactory” Range < TARGET Standard
Deviation
Marginal ==> <==Marginal
2 pts “Poor” - But Still Acceptable
Minimal ==> - 2 SDs
1 pt “Unsatisfactory”
- 3 SDs
Slide
144
 Mid-Term Evaluation
Observations from Experience-to-Date

 On-going Situational Risk Assessment & Changes to the Original

Implementation Schedule Necessary to mitigate the “Triple Threat” — i.e.
Time, Cost and Technical Performance
 Planned Activity Time Estimates & Schedule are rarely – if ever -- maintained
 Actual Activity Implementation Performance is limited by Availability of
Resources as well as Sequential – i.e. Before : After -- Activity Constraints
imposed by other outside events beyond your control
 Actual Activity Implementation Timing is often limited to Targets of
Opportunity – i.e. can work on some Activities and complete Milestones
earlier than originally scheduled, but may not be able to work on the
Activities or complete the Milestones that were scheduled
 The initial “Critical Path” usually changes during implementation, as the
completion of other Milestones and Activities is delayed

 Cash Flow Management Essential to avoid going Bankrupt

 Must Anticipate Future Cost Requirements as well as Fixed Income to Assess
Needs
 Must Maintain Adequate Cash-on-hand for Intermittent Unforeseen Payments
 Must Obtain Funding Reserves for Future Expenses in a Timely Manner
Slide
145