Conditional Probability # 2

Teacher(s): Brittanie Campos Subject: Math

Standard(s): ​Common Core, Arizona Career and College Ready Standards, ISTE Standards apply to this lesson

● A2.S-CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence utilizing
real-world context.
Objectives (Explicit): ​Use Bloom’s verbiage and “formula”

● I can approximate compound and conditional probabilities using a two-way frequency table.
● I can determine if two events are independent using a two-way table.
● I can determine if two events are independent using probabilities (the Multiplication Rule).
Evidence of Mastery (Measurable): ​An actual “product” /Include an explanation of how you are going to grade/grading
tool? (rubric, checklist, etc.)

Check-In:

These are adult American men that have high blood pressure and/or high cholesterol. Are blood pressure and cholesterol
independently related? Remember that independent events have to follow these three mathematical principles.
Remember don’t write “A” or “B.” Write either blood pressure or cholesterol.

Blood Pressure
P(A) x P(B) = P(A∩B)
Cholesterol High Ok
P(A) = P(A|B)
High 11 21
P(B) = P(B|A)
Ok 16 52

Sub-objectives, SW nb,klpBAT (Sequenced from basic to complex): ​Content and Language objectives – action verbs
such as write, list, highlight, etc.)

- Create two-way tables from a spreadsheet (Excel or Google Sheets) from data.
- Identify two events in order to find independence

Key vocabulary: Materials/Technology Resources to be Used:

Percentage Point​: A unit of one percent. - Notebook

- Pencil
Percentage​: a rate, number, or amount in each hundred. - Highlighters
- Pens
Independence​: If P(A) = P(A|B), then they are independent.
- Whiteboard
- Marker
 - Computer
- Excel or Google Sheets

Opening (state objectives, connect to previous learning, and make ​RELEVENT​ to real life) ​ENGAGE/ “hook” the
students

Day 1:

(2 min) Opening:

- (2 min) Have Directions posted on the board.

- Directions: Take out your notebook for today’s activity. In addition, if you have any highlighters, or
colored pens, I would suggest taking them out.
G Teacher Will: ​Be specific
ui
de Day 1
d
Unit Question
Pr
ac - Hand them research paper.
tic - Introduce Unit Questions:
e - What did the researchers do?
- What is the claim of the research paper?
(What did the evidence support?)
- Have them read the summarized research paper.
- Have them write the answers to the
questions in their notebooks.
- Have them discuss with their group about what
they answered for the questions.
- Talk about the questions as a class.
- What did the researchers do?
- The researchers were seeing if
discrimination existed in the job
market and they tried to test
this by making about 5,000
resumes that randomly had
either a black or white name in
order to see the number of
callbacks depending if the
resume had a white name, or a
black name.
- What is the claim of the research paper?
- That individuals with
African-American sounding
Student Will: ​Be specific
Day 1
Unit Question
- Write questions down in notebook.
- Read the summarized research paper.
- Write the answers to the questions in
their notebooks.
- Discuss with their group about what they
answered for the questions.
- Talk about the questions as a class.
- Label the parts of the paper
- 1st paragraph: Reasoning
- 2nd Paragraph: Gathering Data
- 3rd Paragraph: Evidence
- 4th Paragraph: Additional Evidence
- 5th Paragraph: Discussion
- 6th Paragraph: Conclusion
- 7th Paragraph: Implications
Finding Discrimination
- Create a tree diagram using the data from the
research paper in order to find
discrimination.
- Present their board or listen to the group
presenting their board.
 names get less callbacks than
their white counterparts.
- Talk about their final assessment of their unit
and how it will be based off this research paper.
- Label the parts of the paper as a class, and talk
about each part individually.
- 1st paragraph: Reasoning
- 2nd Paragraph: Gathering Data
- 3rd Paragraph: Evidence
- 4th Paragraph: Additional Evidence
- 5th Paragraph: Discussion
- 6th Paragraph: Conclusion
- 7th Paragraph: Implications

Finding Discrimination

- Have them create a tree diagram using the data

from the research paper in order to find
discrimination.
- Have one group display the board and have the
group answer the following questions:
- How do you know there is
discrimination?
- What if there was no discrimination?
What should the percentages be then?
Why does that certain percentage
amount matter? It seems so
insignificant.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation/Check for Understanding…how are you going to know if EACH student
is ready to move onto independent practice? And how are you going to ​different​iate if they do not understand?

For Advanced Students

- Go to each table that finished early and ask them the following questions:
- How do you know there is discrimination?
- What if there was no discrimination? What should the percentages be then?
Why does that certain percentage amount matter? It seems so insignificant.

In Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

str
uc Day 1 Day 2
tio
Percentage Points Vs. Percentage Percentage Points Vs. Percentage
na
 l - Go back to the research paper, and talk about
In the statement: “[t]his 50 percent gap in callback
pu rates is statistically very significant.”
t - Meaning the difference in callback rates
for black people in comparison to white
people is 50% more.
- Explain to them the difference between
Percentage Points Vs. Percentage using the data
they gathered in their tree diagrams.
- Ex. 6% and 10% have a percentage
point difference of 4%. However, 4%
divided by 6% is 66.67%. Which is
Day 2
almost 50%.
- Ex. 10% + 4% = 10.4% and 10 % + 4 % Independence
points = 14 %.
Day 2
Independence
- Write P(CB) = P(CB|AA)
- Ask them how the probabilities would
compare if there was no discrimination.
- Have them discuss in their groups.
- Answer as a class.
- There is no discrimination if
they are equal.
- Tell them that this is Independence.
- Show them how to prove that two events are
independent from each other
Pivot Tables
-
- Show them by doing P(CB) =
P(CB|AA)
- Show them by doing P(CB) * P(AA) =
P(CB and AA)
Pivot Tables
- How can we do this process quicker?
- Pivot Tables
- Show them how to take survey data and put it
into excel.
- Show them how to create pivot tables.
- Write down the difference between
Percentage Points Vs. Percentage using the
data they gathered in their tree diagrams.
- Ex. 6% and 10% have a percentage
point difference of 4%. However,
4% divided by 6% is 66.67%.
Which is almost 50%.
- Ex. 10% + 4% = 10.4% and 10 % +
4 % points = 14 %.
- Try to figure out what the relationship of the
two probabilities would have to be if there
was no discrimination.
- Discuss with their groups
- Answer as a class.
- Write down the definition of independence
in their notebook.
- Write how to find independence in two ways
- P(CB) = P(CB|AA)
- P(CB) * P(AA) = P(CB and AA)
- P(CB) * P(AA)
[Theoretical]
- P(CB and AA) [Actual]
- How can we do this process quicker?
- Questions to Prompt Thinking:
- How did the researchers
make their table?
- What if we can do this
process quicker?
- Technology
- Take survey data and put it into excel/google
sheets.
- Create Pivot tables and observe how excel or
google sheets works.
 - Allow them to mess around with excel/google
sheets.
- Show participants the requirements for Task
1(beta):
- Find an interesting relationship between
two questions with the class data.
1. Draw a Venn diagram.
2. Determine the two-way table.
3. Draw two tree diagram with the
branching factors switched.
4. Give a pictograph of the data.
- Let them put in several questions
and see how it affects data.
- Find an interesting relationship between two
questions from the class survey data:
- Draw a Venn Diagram.
- Determine the two-way table.
- Draw two tree diagram with the
branching factors switched.
- Give a pictograph of the data.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation ​How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations during your instructional input/teaching?

For Students Who Need Extra Guidance​:

- Students will have more one-on-one time.

- Pay attention specifically to these students.
- 1st Hour: Eduardo, Michelle, Dayne, Gio, Jorge M
- 3rd Hour: Andy, Daniela, Williams, Nicki, Diana, Johnathon, Jackie
- 6th Hour: Liz, D’Angelo, Julian, Maleeya, Rosemary
- 8th Hour: Brandon, Amina, Madison, MelodyNavi, Matt, Celina, Mari

In Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

de
pe Day 1 Day 1
nd
- Provide Check-In - Do Check-In
en
- After they finish the check-in, have them use - Practice the independence rule on their
t
the independence rule on their pivot tables to two-way tables they created with the pivot
Pr
see if two events are independent or not. tables
ac
tic Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation ​How will your instruction look different for those students who need
e differentiation or accommodations?

For Students Who Need Extra Guidance:

- If students are struggling with Check-In, provide them with help when they raise their hand
- Go over the Check-In as a class
- Show both ways

Closing/Student Reflection/Real-life connections: ​What connections will students make to their real lives? What
essential questions will they reflect on in their closure of the lesson?
Once they finished the check-in, they should write a reflection at the bottom of what they thought about the
objective and whether or not they felt they fulfilled it.